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Cs retention and diffusion in C-S-H at different Ca/Si ratio

Cement and concrete are commonly used in the construction of repository sites for radioactive wastes. The correct isolation of those contaminants requires good adsorption and low diffusion rates. Both parameters are highly affected by many factors, such as pH, temperature or composition. The large variability of experimental conditions and formulations makes it extraordinarily difficult to tackle the influence of each of them independently in experimental samples. To this effect, molecular dynamics simulations have been employed in this study to investigate the role of the composition in the capacity to retain Cs and diffusivity of these ions in calcium silicate hydrate (C-S-H) gel pores. The results indicate that the adsorption of Cs ions is worsened at high Ca/Si ratios due to a lower interaction of the cations with the C-S-H surface, while hydrophilicity of the C-S-H nanopore rises, resulting in higher long-range ordering and lower diffusion coefficients of Cs ions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Factors influencing mode choice of adults with travel-limiting disability

Introduction: Despite the plethora of research devoted to analyzing the impact of disability on travel behavior, not enough studies have investigated the varying impact of social and environmental factors on the mode choice of people with disabilities that restrict their ability to use transportation modes efficiently. This research gap can be addressed by investigating the factors influencing the mode choice behavior of people with travel-limiting disabilities, which can inform the development of accessible and sustainable transportation systems. Additionally, such studies can provide insights into the social and economic barriers faced by this population group, which can help policymakers to promote social inclusion and equity. Method: This study utilized a Random Parameters Logit model to identify the individual, trip, and environmental factors that influence mode selection among people with travel-limiting disabilities. Here, using the 2017 National Household Travel Survey data for New York State, which included information on respondents with travel-limiting disabilities, the analysis focused on a sample of 8,016 people. In addition, climate data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration were integrated as additional explanatory variables in the modeling process. Results: The results revealed that people with disabilities may be inclined to travel longer distances walking in the absence of suitable accommodation facilities for other transportation modes. Furthermore, people were less inclined to walk during summer and winter, indicating a need to consider weather conditions as a significant determinant of mode choice. Moreover, low-income people with disabilities were more likely to rely on public transport or walking. Conclusion: Based on this study’s findings, transportation agencies could design infrastructure and plan for future expansions that is more inclusive and accessible, thus catering to the mobility needs of people with travel-limiting disabilities.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Optical Waveguiding Charge-Transfer Cocrystals: Examining the Impact of Molecular Rotations on Their Photoluminescence

Here, we present the first example of a binary optical waveguiding (OWG) cocrystal with large anisotropy featuring a fluorinated acceptor molecule (CPP-TFPN, 1) with on-plane rotational dynamics, confirmed by solid-state NMR ( 19 F T 1 ) and theoretical calculations. Spatially resolved microphotoluminescence and variable-temperature photoluminescence experiments allowed us to examine the OWG performance and photophysical properties of both single crystals and bulk microcrystalline samples. A comparison with an analogous cocrystal containing a regioisomeric acceptor (CPP-TFTN, 2) revealed that the photoluminescence characteristics of 1 are associated with the rotational motions of the acceptor, offering insights into how the molecular motion changes this property.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Specific conductivity, pH, dissolved oxygen, water temperature, alkalinity and sulfide in-situ data; Slate River floodplain, Crested Butte, CO; May 2020-October 2020

This data package includes a time-series of field measurements from May to October 2020 in groundwater and surface water from the Slate River floodplain in Crested Butte, CO, a focus field site for the SLAC Floodplain Hydro-Biogeochemistry SFA. The data was generated as part of the work targeting the overarching research question for the SLAC SFA: How do ubiquitous subsurface interfaces mediate molecular-scale biogeochemical processes and groundwater quality in floodplains and watersheds? The data packade includes 6 data files, one for each measured variable: specific conductivity, pH, dissolved oxygen, water temperature, alkalinity and sulfide. All measurements were recorded in the field immediately after water sampling. Groundwater samples were extracted from a network of installed rhizons (Rhizosphere Research Products, part no. 19.60.21F, 0.6 micrometer mesh size) and piezometer wells within the floodplain. In addition to the data files, there is a terminology file explaining the terms used, a file level metadata file, and a sensor file with metadata about the sensors used.All files are in csv format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data for Kim et al., "Variations in the optical and molecular composition of dissolved organic matter exported from coastal wetlands"

Knowledge about sources and composition of marsh-derived dissolved organic matter (DOM) is critical for understanding the role of marshes in coastal biogeochemical cycling and the fate of marsh-derived DOM in the ocean. To investigate tidal variability in composition of marsh-derived DOM, Kim et al. examined the optical and molecular characteristics of hourly surface water samples at three tidal creeks in the Chesapeake Bay. Groundwater samples along the terrestrial landscape gradient as well as estuarine water from the adjacent estuary at each site were also collected to help resolve sources of surface water DOM. Samples were collected in summer 2024 at three sites – SWH: Sweet Hall Marsh, GCW: Kirkpatrick Marsh, and GWI: Goodwin Islands – which are part of synoptic sites in the Chesapeake Bay region of the COMPASS-FME (Coastal Observations, Mechanisms, and Predictions Across Systems and Scales - Field, Measurements, and Experiments) project. Surface water samples were collected hourly over a 48-hour period at each site. Groundwater and estuarine water samples were collected once. This dataset includes- Surface water depth and salinity- Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) concentrations- Optical indices and relative composition of parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC) components- High resolution mass spectrometry data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CABLE Stage 3 – Ultra‐High Strength/Highly Conductive Al Alloys

This work is to be conducted in support of the CABLE Conductor Manufacturing Prize Program awarded by NREL. The intent is to connect competitor teams with national laboratories that can help accelerate the development of innovative solutions and products. Teams who receive CABLE Prize awards are eligible to utilize vouchers at national laboratories to advance their ideas. NanoAL LLC has been awarded a voucher to utilize at Ames National Laboratory. Ames National Laboratory will perform a scale‐up trial of Nano 6000‐T9 to evaluate and optimize the heat treatment and other processing variables to validate the lab‐scale work done at NanoAL. The final processing schedule will be used to fabricate the submission samples for the Stage 3 contest. All work will be supported by mechanical and electrical conductivity testing be performed by Ames.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Ensemble Photometric Variability of Over 10 5 Quasars in the Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey

We present the ensemble variability analysis results of quasars using the Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey (DECaLS) and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) quasar catalogs. Our data set includes 119,305 quasars with redshifts up to 4.89. Combining the two data sets provides a 15 year baseline and permits the analysis of the long timescale variability. Adopting a power-law form for the variability structure function, $V=A(t/$1years)$^γ$, we use the multidimensional parametric fitting to explore the relationships between the quasar variability amplitude and a wide variety of quasar properties, including redshift (positive), bolometric luminosity (negative), rest-frame wavelength (negative), and black hole mass (uncertain). We also find that γ can be also expressed as a function of redshift (negative), bolometric luminosity (positive), rest-frame wavelength (positive), and black hole mass (positive). Tests of the fitting significance with the bootstrap method show that, even with such a large quasar sample, some correlations are marginally significant. The typical value of $γ$ for the entire data set is $≳0.25$, consistent with the results in previous studies on both the quasar ensemble variability and the structure function. A significantly negative correlation between the variability amplitude and the Eddington ratio is found, which may be explained as an effect of accretion disk instability.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Study of Quasar Selection in the Supernova Fields of the Dark Energy Survey

In this paper, we present a study of quasar selection using the supernova fields of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We used a quasar catalog from an overlapping portion of the SDSS Stripe 82 region to quantify the completeness and efficiency of selection methods involving color, probabilistic modeling, variability, and combinations of color/probabilistic modeling with variability. In all cases, we considered only objects that appear as point sources in the DES images. We examine color selection methods based on the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) mid-IR W1-W2 color, a mixture of WISE and DES colors (g - i and i-W1), and a mixture of Vista Hemisphere Survey and DES colors (g - i and i - K). For probabilistic quasar selection, we used XDQSO, an algorithm that employs an empirical multi-wavelength flux model of quasars to assign quasar probabilities. Our variability selection uses the multi-band χ 2 -probability that sources are constant in the DES Year 1 griz-band light curves. The completeness and efficiency are calculated relative to an underlying sample of point sources that are detected in the required selection bands and pass our data quality and photometric error cuts. We conduct our analyses at two magnitude limits, i < 19.8 mag and i < 22 mag. For the subset of sources with W1 and W2 detections, the W1-W2 color or XDQSOz method combined with variability gives the highest completenesses of >85% for both i-band magnitude limits and efficiencies of >80% to the bright limit and >60% to the faint limit; however, the giW1 and giW1+variability methods give the highest quasar surface densities. The XDQSOz method and combinations of W1W2/giW1/XDQSOz with variability are among the better selection methods when both high completeness and high efficiency are desired. We also present the OzDES Quasar Catalog of 1263 spectroscopically confirmed quasars from three years of OzDES observation in the 30 deg 2 of the DES supernova fields. Finally, the catalog includes quasars with redshifts up to z ~ 4 and brighter than i = 22 mag, although the catalog is not complete up to this magnitude limit.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Metagenomic Insight into Environmentally Challenged Methane-Fed Microbial Communities

In this study, we aimed to investigate, through high-resolution metagenomics and metatranscriptomics, the composition and the trajectories of microbial communities originating from a natural sample, fed exclusively with methane, over 14 weeks of laboratory incubation. This study builds on our prior data, suggesting that multiple functional guilds feed on methane, likely through guild-to-guild carbon transfer, and potentially through intraguild and intraspecies interactions. We observed that, under two simulated dioxygen partial pressures—low versus high—community trajectories were different, with considerable variability among the replicates. In all microcosms, four major functional guilds were prominently present, representing Methylococcaceae (the true methanotrophs), Methylophilaceae (the nonmethanotrophic methylotrophs), Burkholderiales, and Bacteroidetes. Additional functional guilds were detected in multiple samples, such as members of Opitutae, as well as the predatory species, suggesting additional complexity for methane-oxidizing communities. Metatranscriptomic analysis suggested simultaneous expression of the two alternative types of methanol dehydrogenases in both Methylococcaceae and Methylophilaceae, while high expression of the oxidative/nitrosative stress response genes suggested competition for dioxygen among the community members. The transcriptomic analysis further suggested that Burkholderiales likely feed on acetate that is produced by Methylococcaceae under hypoxic conditions, while Bacteroidetes likely feed on biopolymers produced by both Methylococcaceae and Methylophilaceae.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Yield From Iowa's First Commercial Miscanthus Fields: Implications of Spatial Variability for Productivity and Sustainability Beyond Research Plots

The cultivation of sterile giant miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus, M × g) for bioenergy and bioproducts has expanded into grain-cropped land in the United States (US) as local markets developed for this high-yielding perennial grass (10–30 Mg DM ha −1 ). However, the magnitude of spatial and temporal variability in yield within US Corn Belt fields, along with impacts on economic return and sustainable land management, is poorly understood. This study established a diagnostic model relating remote sensing-derived vegetation indices to ground truth data from 105 hand-harvested stem biomass samples, which were strategically selected to represent the full range of vegetation index observations. The high-resolution satellite-sensed vegetation indices captured > 90% of the yield variation measured within fields. This model was then used to predict yield variability and assess economic performance across four of the first commercial M × g fields in the Corn Belt state of Iowa, US. Significant spatial variability in biomass dry matter (DM) yields (9.3–18.1 Mg DM ha −1 ) and net profits ($\$$83 to $\$$1211.5 ha −1 ) was observed. All fields were profitable in all site-years. When low profit occurred, it was explained by limited management experience of the crop in Iowa. The breakeven yield at a selling price of $\$$130 Mg −1 varied from 9.0–12.1 Mg ha −1 at 15% moisture content (7.6–10.3 Mg DM ha −1 ). Breakeven prices ranged from $\$$73 to $\$$122.4 Mg −1 , matching ranges used in the Department of Energy Billion Ton Report (US Department of Energy, 2023). Notably, M × g yield and profits were commensurate with grain crops particularly with favorable precipitation. This study provides insight on the M × g management “learning curve”, performance on marginal land and in drought conditions, and demonstrates that addressing yield gaps, reducing costs, and implementing precision agriculture strategies can enhance profitability. These findings emphasize the value of remote sensing technologies in guiding sustainable and competitive commercial-scale M × g production.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A Fokker–Planck approach to a moment closure for mixing in variable-density turbulence

We develop a theory for the cascade mixing terms in a moment closure approach to binary active scalar mixing in variable-density turbulence. To address the variable-density complications we apply, as a principle and constraint, the conservation of the probability density function (PDF) through a Fokker–Planck equation with bounded sample space whose attractor is the beta PDF with skewness. Mixing is related to a single-point PDF as a realisability principle to provide mathematically rigorous expressions for the small scale statistics in terms of largescale moments. The problem of the unknown small-scale mixing is replaced with the determination of the drift and diffusion terms of a Fokker–Planck equation in a beta-PDF-convergent stochastic process. We find that realisability of a beta-convergent process requires the mixing time-scale ratio, taken as a constant in passive scalar mixing, to be a function of the mean mass fraction, mean fluid density, the Atwood number, the density-volume correlation and moments of the density field. We develop and compare the new model with direct numerical simulations data of non-stationary homogeneous variable-density turbulence.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Measurement of elastic precursor decay in pre-heated aluminum films under ultra-fast laser generated shocks

Here, this article presents results from laser-driven shock compression experiments performed on pre-heated pure aluminum films at temperatures ranging from 23 to 400 °C. The samples were vapor deposited on the surface of a 500 μm thick sapphire substrate and mounted onto a custom holder with an integrated ring-heater to enable variable initial temperature conditions. A chirped pulse amplified laser was used to generate a pulse for both shocking the films and for probing the free surface velocity using Ultrafast Dynamic Ellipsometry. The particle velocity traces measured at the free surface clearly show elastic and plastic wave separation, which was used to estimate the decay of the elastic precursor amplitude over propagation distances ranging from 0.278 to 4.595 μm. Elastic precursors (which also correspond to dynamic material strength under uniaxial strain) of increasing amplitudes were observed with increasing initial sample temperatures for all propagation distances, which is consistent with expectations for aluminum in a deformation regime where phonon drag limits the mobility of dislocations. The experimental results show peak elastic amplitudes corresponding to axial stresses of over 7.5 GPa; estimates for plastic strain-rates in the samples are of the order 10 9 /s. The measured elastic amplitudes at the micron length scales are compared with those at the millimeter length-scales using a two-parameter model and used to correlate the rate sensitivity of the dynamic strength at strain-rates ranging from 10 3 to 10 9 /s and elevated temperature conditions. The overall trend, as inferred from the experimental data, indicates that the temperature-strengthening effect decreases with increasing plastic strain-rates.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Sensitivity of Turbine-Height Wind Speeds to Parameters in Planetary Boundary-Layer and Surface-Layer Schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

We evaluate the sensitivity of simulated turbine-height winds to 26 parameters applied in a planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme and a surface layer scheme of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over an area of complex terrain during the Columbia Basin Wind Energy Study. An efficient sampling algorithm and a generalized linear model are used to explore the multiple-dimensional parameter space and quantify the parametric sensitivity of modeled turbine-height winds. The results indicate that most of the variability in the ensemble simulations is contributed by parameters related to the dissipation of the turbulence kinetic energy (TKE), Prandtl number, turbulence length scales, surface roughness, and the von Kármán constant. The relative contributions of individual parameters are found to be dependent on both the terrain slope and atmospheric stability. The parameter associated with the TKE dissipation rate is found to be the most important one, and a larger dissipation rate can produce larger hub-height winds. A larger Prandtl number results in weaker nighttime winds. Increasing surface roughness reduces the frequencies of both extremely weak and strong winds, implying a reduction in the variability of the wind speed. All of the above parameters can significantly affect the vertical profiles of wind speed, the altitude of the low-level jet and the magnitude of the wind shear strength. The wind direction is found to be modulated by the same subset of influential parameters. Remainder of abstract is in attachment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Towards an improved understanding of the influence of subpixel vegetation structure on pixel-level spectra: a simulation approach

The planned NASA Hyperspectral Infrared Imager (HyspIRI) mission, equipped with an imaging spectrometer that has the capability of monitoring ecosystems globally, will provide an unprecedented opportunity to address scientific challenges related to ecosystem function and change. However, uncertainty remains around the impact of subpixel vegetation structure, in combination with the point spread function, on pixel-level imaging spectroscopy data. We estimated structural parameters, e.g., leaf area index (LAI), canopy cover, and tree location, from HyspIRI spectral data, with the goal of assessing how subpixel variation in these parameters impact pixel-level imaging spectroscopy data. The fine-scale variability of real vegetation structure makes this a challenging endeavor. Therefore, we utilized a simulation-based approach to counter the time-consuming and often destructive sampling needs of vegetation structural analysis and to simultaneously generate synthetic HyspIRI data pre-launch. Three virtual scenes were constructed, corresponding to the actual vegetation structure in the National Ecological Observatory Network’s (NEON) Pacific Southwest Domain (Fresno, CA). These included an oak savanna, a dense coniferous forest, and a conifer-manzanita-mixed forest. Simulated spectroscopy data for these scenes were then generated using the Digital Imaging and Remote Sensing Image Generation (DIRSIG) model. Simulations first were used to verify the physical model, virtual scene geometrical information, and simulation parameters. This was followed by simulations of HyspIRI data, where within-pixel structural variability was introduced, e.g., by iteratively changing per-pixel canopy cover and tree placement, tree clustering, leaf area index (LAI), etc., between simulation runs for the virtual scenes. Finally, narrow-band vegetation indices (VIs) were extracted from the data in an attempt to describe the variability of the subpixel structural parameters; this was done in order to assess VI robustness to changes in structural “levels”, as well as placement of trees/canopies within the instrument’s instantaneous field-of-view (IFOV). Our ultimate goal is not only to better understand how such subpixel variability influence imaging spectroscopy outputs, but also to better estimate vegetation structural parameters using spectra. We constructed regression models for LAI (R2 = 0.92) and canopy cover (R2 = 0.97) with narrow-band VIs via this simulation approach. Our models ultimately are intended to improve the HyspIRI mission’s ability to monitor global vegetation structure.

Van Aardt, Jan↗

A Histogram-Free Multicanonical Monte Carlo Algorithm for the Basis Expansion of Density of States

We report a new multicanonical Monte Carlo (MC) algorithm to obtain the density of states (DOS) for physical systems with continuous state variables in statistical mechanics. Our algorithm is able to obtain an analytical form for the DOS expressed in a chosen basis set, instead of a numerical array of finite resolution as in previous variants of this class of MC methods such as the multicanonical (MUCA) sampling and Wang-Landau (WL) sampling. This is enabled by storing the visited states directly in a data set and avoiding the explicit collection of a histogram. This practice also has the advantage of avoiding undesirable artificial errors caused by the discretization and binning of continuous state variables. Our results show that this scheme is capable of obtaining converged results with a much reduced number of Monte Carlo steps, leading to a significant speedup over existing algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A histogram-free multicanonical Monte Carlo algorithm for the construction of analytical density of states

We report a new multicanonical Monte Carlo (MC) algorithm to obtain the density of states (DOS) for physical systems with continuous state variables in statistical mechanics. Our algorithm is able to obtain an analytical form for the DOS expressed in a chosen basis set, instead of a numerical array of finite resolution as in previous variants of this class of MC methods such as the multicanonical (MUCA) sampling and Wang-Landau (WL) sampling. This is enabled by storing the visited states directly in a data set and avoiding the explicit collection of a histogram. This practice also has the advantage of avoiding undesirable artificial errors caused by the discretization and binning of continuous state variables. Our results show that this scheme is capable of obtaining converged results with a much reduced number of Monte Carlo steps, leading to a significant speedup over existing algorithms.

Li, Ying Wai↗

Intraday Water Quality Patterns in East Fork Poplar Creek with an Emphasis on Mercury and Monomethylmercury

We conducted a diel sampling campaign at three locations along the Hg contaminated East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) in Oak Ridge, Tennessee to (i) quantify diel patterns of particulate and dissolved mercury (Hg) and monomethylmercury (MMHg) (Hg D , Hg P , MMHg D , and MMHg P , respectively) and associated water quality parameters along a longitudinal gradient of EFPC during the summer season, (ii) determine if diel patterns in Hg and/or MMHg are related to the daily photocycle or any other short term cycle, such as wastewater treatment plant discharge, (iii) determine if diel variability in turbidity and dissolved organic matter (DOM) composition correspond to particulate Hg P or MMHg P and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) or dissolved Hg D or MMHg D . Samples were collected every two hours for a 30 hour period. The farthest upstream site was located at the boundary of Y-12 and the City of Oak Ridge (EFK 23.4) while two additional sites were located 7.2 kilometers (Wiltshire Drive, EFK 16.2) and 18 kilometers (Horizon Center, EFK 5.4) downstream of EFK 23.4). Hg P and MMHg P concentrations increased overnight at EFK 16.2 and EFK 5.4 coincident with increases in turbidity and total suspended solids (TSS). These overnight increases were likely due to diel changes in the activity of macrobiota (re)suspending contaminated sediments in the creek. Both Hg D and MMHg D were higher during the day at EFK 23.4 and EFK 5.4. The underlying causes for the patterns in Hg D and MMHg D are less clear but correspond with similar patterns in DOC concentration and DOM composition. Photochemical reactions may also play a role in these Hg D , MMHg D , DOC, and DOM patterns. Total loads of both Hg and MMHg increased with downstream distance. The greatest increase in loading occurred in the reach from EFK 23.4 to EFK 16.2 which encompasses areas where the Historic Release Deposits (HRD) have been identified. These results demonstrate that diffuse legacy sources of Hg, outside of Y-12, contribute Hg load to EFPC. Both total and dissolved MMHg loads increased approximately linearly with downstream distance. Particluate MMHg loading increased in the upper reach but did not change over the lower reach. The HRD may contribute to MMHg P load in the upper reach but most of the total, dissolved, and particulate MMHg appears to originate from in-stream production. Due to intraday patterns in concentration and flow rate, loading estimates are best derived from diel sampling campaigns. Intraday patterns in Hg and MMHg concentration and speciation have implications with respect to biotic exposure. Greater biotic activity and feeding during times of higher concentration would correspond to greater exposure than estimated from daily or longer-term averages. Both Hg and MMHg responded rapidly to processes governing their concentration. This latter point is encouraging from the perspective of site remediation as it suggests that MMHg concentrations and flux in EFPC would respond rapidly to appropriate remedial actions.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Adaptive stratified importance sampling: hybridization of extrapolation and importance sampling Monte Carlo methods for estimation of wind turbine extreme loads

Wind turbine extreme load estimation is especially difficult because turbulent inflow drives nonlinear turbine physics and control strategies; thus there can be huge differences in turbine response to essentially equivalent environmental conditions. The two main current approaches, extrapolation and Monte Carlo sampling, are both unsatisfying: extrapolation-based methods are dangerous because by definition they make predictions outside the range of available data, but Monte Carlo methods converge too slowly to routinely reach the desired 50-year return period estimates. Thus a search for a better method is warranted. We introduce an adaptive stratified importance sampling approach that allows for treating the choice of environmental conditions at which to run simulations as a stochastic optimization problem that minimizes the variance of unbiased estimates of extreme loads. Furthermore, the framework, built on the traditional bin-based approach used in extrapolation methods, provides a close connection between sampling and extrapolation, and thus allows the solution of the stochastic optimization (i.e., the optimal distribution of simulations in different wind speed bins) to guide and recalibrate the extrapolation. Results show that indeed this is a promising approach, as the variance of both the Monte Carlo and extrapolation estimates are reduced quickly by the adaptive procedure. We conclude, however, that due to the extreme response variability in turbine loads to the same environmental conditions, our method and any similar method quickly reaches its fundamental limits, and that therefore our efforts going forward are best spent elucidating the underlying causes of the response variability.

17 WIND ENERGY↗