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How Does the Global-Scale Atmosphere Circulation Produce Clouds?

Although clouds are produced by "micro-scale" processes, these processes operate as a response to global-scale atmospheric motions to produce the complex geographic distribution of clouds on Earth. One way to attack this larger-scale problem is to combine global-scale satellite observations of cloud property variations with global-scale determinations of the atmospheric circulation. Such a global data analysis can be used to describe the mean characteristics of clouds and their variations for comparison with global circulation models, to identify systematic relations among observed cloud properties and atmospheric motions, or to estimate, directly, the derivative relations of the processes at work using statistical life-cycle-composites of cloud system evolution. Another approach is to find what characteristics of the global atmospheric circulation are revealed in observed global-scale cloud variations. For the first time this type of analysis is possible with the advent of global, satellite-based cloud (ISCCP), precipitation (microwave-based), and water vapor (merged infrared and microwave) datasets, together with global wind datasets (ECMWF and NCEP re-analyses), all of which resolve features at least down to the upper end of the mesoscale and cover more than a decade. We report on some preliminary attempts to identify quantitative relationships between atmospheric motions and cloud properties that are relevant to cloud processes. Three examples are given: (1) cloud variations at the smallest scales and what they reveal about the nature of small-scale turbulence in the atmospheric boundary layer, (2) cloud variations at "moderate" weather-scales and what they reveal about meteorological storm systems, and (3) cloud variations at the largest scales and what they indicate about interannual variations of climate.

Rossow, William B.↗

Deep Learning Method for Detecting Precursors to Adverse Events

With the recent advancements in Deep Learning methods, the ability to model large complex heterogeneous data sets are fundamentally changing industry and research. Coupled with hardware improvements, and ease of implementation, a wide variety of deep neural network architectures can quickly be developed to solve a sweeping range of problems such as: object detection in images, automatic healthcare diagnosis using heterogenous data sources, real time language translating and sentence prediction, upscaling low resolution images, and forecasting of multivariate timeseries. Generally, many of these architectures outperform classical machine learning approaches in their respective tasks, however, this typically comes at a cost of interpretability. These black box algorithms generally suffer from lack of transparency in both model complexity as well as the rationale behind the prediction. This lack of comprehension, is driving an emerging area of interest in “Explainable AI”. An algorithm called: “Deep Temporal Multiple Instance Learning”1 was a recently developed to identify precursors to adverse events and has been applied in the aviation domain. The deep learning architecture is designed to capture the evolution of the probability of the outcome over the time preceding the adverse event using a multiple instance learning approach as illustrated in Figure 1. Precursors are defined when the probability of the event has exceeded a threshold at some point in the timeseries, at which point, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine contributing factors. The contributing factors are used to explain and define the precursor during the periods where the probability score is high. The identified contributing factors are then presented to subject matter experts to provide objective insights into the leading factors associated with the particular adverse event. The algorithm has been tested on flight data from a commercial airline and has the ability to discover precursors to known adverse events that take the form of safety critical operations, such as unstable approach events on final approach. Apart from detecting precursors to adverse events, the converse can also be leveraged to discover corrective actions. These positive actions manifest themselves as periods in the timeseries when the precursor score has been lowered from an elevated state; meaning that if the system had been left uncorrected, it would have eventually reached the adverse event state. Characterizing these state changes can help identify successful interventions that may not have been known before. Policy makers and procedure designers can use this additional knowledge to craft more safety and efficient resilient procedures for future operations and therefore improve the overall performance of the National Airspace.

Matthews, Bryan L.↗

Disruption event characterization and forecasting in tokamaks

Disruption prediction and avoidance is a critical need for next-step tokamaks, such as ITER. Disruption Event Characterization and Forecasting (DECAF) research fully automates analysis of tokamak data to determine chains of events that lead to disruptions and to forecast their evolution allowing sufficient time for mitigation or complete avoidance of the disruption. Disruption event chains related to local rotating or global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modes and vertical instability are examined with warnings issued for many off-normal physics events, including density limits, plasma dynamics, confinement transitions, and profile variations. Along with Greenwald density limit evaluation, a local radiative island power balance theory is evaluated and compared to the observation of island growth. Automated decomposition and analysis of rotating tearing modes produce physical event chains leading to disruptions. A total MHD state warning model comprised of 15 separate criteria produces a disruption forecast about 180 ms before a standard locked mode detector warning. Single DECAF event analyses have begun on KSTAR, MAST, and NSTX/-U databases with thousands of shot seconds of device operation using from 0.5 to 1 × 10 6 tested sample times per device. An initial multi-device database comparison illustrates a highly important result that plasma disruptivity does not need to increase as βN increases. Global MHD instabilities, such as resistive wall modes (RWMs), can give the briefest time period of warning before disruption compared to other physics events. In an NSTX database with unstable RWMs, the mode onset, loss of boundary and current control, and disruption event warnings are found in all cases and vertical displacement events are found in 91% of cases. An initial time-dependent reduced physics model of kinetic RWM stabilization created to forecast the disruption chain predicts instability 84% of the time for experimentally unstable cases with a relatively low false positive rate. Instances of the disruption event chain analysis illustrate dynamics including H–L back transitions for rotating MHD and global RWM triggering events. Furthermore, disruption warnings are issued with sufficient time before the disruption (on transport timescales) to potentially allow active profile control for disruption avoidance, active mode control, or mitigation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Temporal Evolution of the Nanostructure and Phase Compositions in a Model Ni-Al-Cr Alloy

In a Ni-5.2 Al-14.2 Cr at.% alloy with moderate solute supersaturations and a very small gamma/gamma prime lattice parameter misfit, the nanostructural and compositional pathways during gamma prime(L12) precipitation at 873 K are investigated using atom-probe tomography, conventional transmission electron microscopy, and hardness measurements. Nucleation of high number densities (N(sub v) greater than 10(sup 23) per cubic meters) of solute-rich precipitates (mean radius = [R] = 0.75 nm), with a critical nucleus composition of Ni-18.3 plus or minus 0.9 Al-9.3 plus or minus 0.7 Cr at.%, initiates between 0.0833 and 0.167 h. With increasing aging time (a) the solute concentrations decay in spheroidal precipitates ([R] less than 10 nm); (b) the observed early-stage coalescence peaks at maximum N(sub v) in coincidence with the smallest interprecipitate spacing; and (c) the reaction enters a quasi-stationary regime where growth and coarsening operate concomitantly. During this quasi-stationary regime, the c (face-centered cubic)-matrix solute supersaturations decay with a power-law dependence of about -1/3, while the dependencies of [R] and N(sub v) are 0.29 plus or minus 0.05 and -0.64 plus or minus 0.06 at a coarsening rate slower than model predications. Coarsening models allow both equilibrium phase compositions to be determined from the compositional measurements. The observed early-stage coalescence is discussed in further detail.

Sudbrack, Chantal K.↗

Observation simulation experiments with regional prediction models

Research efforts in FY 1990 included studies employing regional scale numerical models as aids in evaluating potential contributions of specific satellite observing systems (current and future) to numerical prediction. One study involves Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) which mimic operational initialization/forecast cycles but incorporate simulated Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) radiances as input data. The objective of this and related studies is to anticipate the potential value of data from these satellite systems, and develop applications of remotely sensed data for the benefit of short range forecasts. Techniques are also being used that rely on numerical model-based synthetic satellite radiances to interpret the information content of various types of remotely sensed image and sounding products. With this approach, evolution of simulated channel radiance image features can be directly interpreted in terms of the atmospheric dynamical processes depicted by a model. Progress is being made in a study using the internal consistency of a regional prediction model to simplify the assessment of forced diabatic heating and moisture initialization in reducing model spinup times. Techniques for model initialization are being examined, with focus on implications for potential applications of remote microwave observations, including AMSU and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), in shortening model spinup time for regional prediction.

Diak, George↗

The 2.5-12 micrometers spectrum of comet Halley from the IKS-VEGA experiment

The infrared instrument IKS flown on board the VEGA space probes was designed for the detection of emission bands of parent molecules, and for a measurement of the size and temperature of the thermal emitting nuclear region. The instrument had three channels with cooled detectors: an "imaging channel" designed to modulate the signal of the nucleus and two spectroscopic channels operating at 2.5-5 and 6-12 micrometers, respectively, equipped with circular variable filters of resolving power approximately 50. This paper presents and discusses the results from the spectral channels. On VEGA 1, usable spectra were obtained at distances D from the comet nucleus ranging from 250,000 to 40,000 km corresponding to fields of view 4000 and 700 km in diameter, respectively. The important internal background signal caused by the instrument itself, which could not be cooled, had to be eliminated. Since no sky chopping was performed, we obtain difference spectra between the current spectrum and a reference spectrum with little or no cometary signal taken at the beginning of the observing sequence (D approximately 200,000 km). Final discrimination between cometary signal and instrumental background is achieved using their different time evolution, since the instrumental background is proportional to the slow temperature drift of the instrument, and the cometary signal due to parent molecules or dust grains is expected to vary in first order as D-1. The 2.5-5 micrometers IKS spectra definitely show strong narrow signals at 2.7 and 4.25 micrometers, attributed to the nu 3 vibrational bands of H2O and CO2, respectively, and a broader signal in the region 3.2-3.5 micrometers, which may be attributed to CH-bearing molecules. All these signals present the expected D-1 intensity variation. Weaker emission features at 3.6 and 4.7 micrometers could correspond to the nu 1 and nu 5 bands of H2CO and the (1 - 0) band of CO, respectively. Molecular production rates are derived from the observed emissions, assuming that they are due to resonance fluorescence excited by the Sun's infrared radiation. For the strong bands of H2O and CO2, the rovibrational lines are optically thick, and radiative transfer is taken into account. We derive production rates, at the moment of the VEGA 1 flyby, of approximately 10(30) sec-1 for H2O, approximately 2.7 x 10(28) sec-1 for CO2, approximately 5 x 10(28) sec-1 for CO, and 4 x 10(28) sec-1 for H2CO, if attributions to CO and H2CO are correct. The production rate of carbon atoms in CH-bearing molecules is approximately 9 x 10(29) sec-1 assuming fluorescence of molecules in the gas phase, but could be much less if the 3.2-3.5 micrometers emission is attributed to C-H stretch in polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons or small organic grains. In addition, marginal features are present at 4.85 and 4.45 micrometers, tentatively attributed to OCS and molecules with the CN group, respectively. Broad absorption at 2.8-3.0 micrometers, as well as a narrow emission at 3.15 micrometers, which follow well the D-1 intensity variation, might be due to water ice. Emission at 2.8 micrometers is also possibly present, and might be due to OH created in vibrationally excited states after water photodissociation. The 6-12 micrometers spectrum does not show any molecular emission, nor emission in the 7.5-micrometers region. The spectrum is dominated by silicate emission showing a double structure with maxima at 9.0 and 11.2 micrometers, which suggests the presence of olivine.

NASA Discipline Number 52-10↗

Time evolution of ML-MCTDH wavefunctions. I. Gauge conditions, basis functions, and singularities

We derive a family of equations-of-motion (EOMs) for evolving multi-layer multiconfiguration time-dependent Hartree (ML-MCTDH) wavefunctions that, unlike the standard ML-MCTDH EOMs, never require the evaluation of the inverse of singular matrices. All members of this family of EOMs make use of alternative static gauge conditions than those used for standard ML-MCTDH. These alternative conditions result in an expansion of the wavefunction in terms of a set of potentially arbitrary orthonormal functions, rather than in terms of a set of non-orthonormal and potentially linearly dependent functions, as is the case for standard ML-MCTDH. We show that the EOMs used in the projector splitting integrator (PSI) and the invariant EOM approaches are two special cases of this family obtained from different choices for the dynamic gauge condition, with the invariant EOMs making use of a choice that introduces potentially unbounded operators into the EOMs. As a consequence, all arguments for the existence of parallelizable integration schemes for the invariant EOMs can also be applied to the PSI EOMs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations to Support Efficiency Improvements in Aluminum Smelting Process

Smelting is broadly described as the extraction of a metal from its ore. In the United States, aluminum is commonly produced by smelting alumina in bauxite using the Hall-Héroult process. Optimization of equipment and processes in conventional smelting is crucial to enhancing process efficiency and productivity, is necessary for improving the techno-economic feasibility, which directly manifests as the growth of the American economy. To achieve optima, insightful data on the multiphysics phenomena that are inherent to the process must be obtained through physical investigation or high-fidelity numerical simulations. The resolution of relevant scales in time and space for smelting operations requires intensive, high-performance computing (HPC) simulations. Hostile operating conditions limit physical data acquisition to specific techniques; therefore, these data do not describe the multiscale interaction of simultaneous effects. Fortunately, in recent decades, significant advancements in computing hardware and computational methods have made the numerical resolution of such a complex process possible. In this study, a high-fidelity simulation of aluminum smelting was performed using an open-source tool, OpenFOAM, which analyzed many parameters characteristic to underlying phenomena. A multiphysics model based on the Eulerian-Eulerian multifluid approach was adopted. This model can resolve critical issues in the electrolytic smelting of aluminum, such as bubbling of carbon dioxide from the anode(s), magnetohydrodynamics from electromagnetic effects, ionic dissolution of the alumina in the electrolyte, and the evolution of thermal profiles. This study provides valuable connectivity for characteristic data that can direct the future designs of efficient smelters. A basic framework to model and simulate the smelting process using OpenFOAM is presented for user modification in keeping with process development. Of relevance to the flow field, a detailed investigation of vortices produced by bubble motion and electromagnetics is discussed, along with their impact on the evolution of thermal profiles. The predictions show small-scale vortices in the clearance between the anode and cathode caused by magnetic forces. Predictions also indicate relatively large-scale vortices in the inter-anode space resulting from carbon dioxide rising through the electrolytic flow field. The formation of vortices at the edges of anodes was shown to direct alumina charged by the feeder to the bottom of the anodes, thus preventing the entrapment of gas bubbles in the periphery of the bottom of the anode. Symmetry was observed in the location of cold spots in the electrolytic mixture in the vicinity of the feeder. Cold spots were also observed in the clearance between the anode and cathode due to the flow’s transmission of unconverted alumina to this region.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NuSTAR broad-band X-ray observation campaign of energetic pulsar wind nebulae in synergy with VERITAS, HAWC and Fermi gamma-ray telescopes

We report recent progress on the on-going NuSTAR observation campaign of 8 TeV-detected middle-aged pulsar wind nebulae (PWNe). This campaign constitutes a major part of our NuSTAR study of some of the most energetic TeV sources in our Galaxy detected by VERITAS and HAWC. NuSTAR is the first focusing X-ray telescope operating above 10 keV in space with sub-arcminute angular resolution. Broad-band X-ray imaging and spectroscopy data, obtained by NuSTAR, allow us to probe sub-PeV electron populations through detecting synchrotron X-ray radiation. Our targets include PeVatron candidates detected by HAWC, the Boomerang nebula, PWNe crushed by supernova remnant shocks (or relic PWNe) and G0.9‚0.1 in the Galactic Center. Combined with Fermi-LAT data and available TeV data, we aim to provide a complete, multi-wavelength view of a diverse class of middle-aged (~10–100 kyrs old) PWNe. Our NuSTAR analysis detected hard X-ray emission from the Eel and Boomerang PWNe and characterized their broad-band X-ray spectra most accurately. We plan to apply both time-evolution and multi-zone PWNe models to multi-wavelength spectral energy distribution (SED) data over the radio, X-ray, GeV and TeV bands. In this proceeding, we will review our observation campaign and discuss the preliminary results for some PWNe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Comparison of the Automated Meteorological Profiling System High Resolution Flight Element to the Kennedy Space Center 50 MHz Doppler Wind Profiler

Wind profile measurement and the simulation of aerodynamic loads on a launch vehicle play an important role in determining launch capability and post launch assessment of the vehicle's performance. To date, all United States range certified wind profile measurement systems have been based on balloon tracking. Since the 1960's, the standard used by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Air Force at the Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) for detailed wind profile measurements has been the radar tracked, aerodynamically stabilized Jimsphere balloon system. Currently, the Air Force is nearing certification and operational implementation of the Automated Meteorological Profiling System (AMPS) at CCAS and Vandenburg Air Force Base (VAFB). AMPS uses the Global Positioning System for tracking the Jimsphere balloon. It is anticipated that the AMPS/Jimsphere, named the High Resolution Flight Element (HRFE), will have equivalent, or better resolution than the radar tracked Jimsphere, especially when the balloon is far downrange, at a low elevation angle. By the 1980's, the development of Doppler Wind Profilers (DWP) had become sufficiently advanced to justify an experimental measurement program at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). In 1989 a 50 MHz DWP was installed at KSC. In principal, the 50 MHz DWP has the capability to track the evolution of wind profile dynamics within 5 minutes of a launch. Because of fundamental differences in the measurement technique, there is a significant time and space differential between 50 MHz DWP and HRFE wind profiles. This paper describes a study to quantify these differences from a sample of 50 MHz DWP/HRFE pairs obtained during the AMPS certification test program.

Roberts, Barry C.↗

Development of an Alternative Approach to Demonstrating Environmental Performance in the UK - 19354

European basic safety standards require that exposure of humans to the potentially harmful effects of ionising radiation are optimised so that they are as low as reasonably achievable, taking account of economic and societal factors. In the United Kingdom the responsibility for ensuring that exposures to humans are optimised is split between two regulatory functions. The Office of Nuclear Regulation regulates exposures to workers in all scenarios and to members of the public in the event of an accident. Environmental regulators in each of the four nations comprising the United Kingdom regulate exposures to members of the public from normal operations. Since the early 1990's, all permissions granted to nuclear sites in the UK for the discharge/disposal of radioactive waste to the environment have contained conditions requiring holders to demonstrate that they minimise the generation of radioactive waste, apply appropriate abatement and discharge/dispose of it in a way that minimises impacts on members of the public and the environment. For many years, the industry standard for providing this demonstration, which was heavily influenced by regulatory expectations and feedback, was to undertake one or a series of multi-attribute decision assessments (MADA). Wood's team of environmental specialists has been involved in undertaking such MADA studies for many years. Since the mid-2000's, our team has become increasingly aware of some of the limitations of undertaking MADA to demonstrate environmental performance for large scale new nuclear build projects and, in particular, the next generation of new nuclear power stations that are being planned and implemented in the UK. We have collaborated with the vendors of reactor technologies, the prospective/owner operators of new nuclear power stations and the developers of new facilities on existing sites to develop an alternative approach to demonstrating environmental performance. Our alternative approach comprises three main pillars which are summarised as: - Evolution - benefit from progressive improvements, operational experience and recent permitting activities. Our alternative approach uses the claim, argument, evidence approach which is commonly used for nuclear safety cases and which allows us to 'tell the story' of how environmental performance has been achieved. We have successfully deployed this approach for all new nuclear power stations proposed in the UK. - Integration - ensure that optimisation is integrated into the project programme and forms part of the 'big picture'. Our alternative approach allows environmental performance to be managed better throughout the life cycle of the project and ensures that our outputs are 'living' documents and do not 'sit on the shelf'. We have successfully demonstrated how this can be applied during rationalisation of major schemes and significant design changes on nuclear new build projects. - Opportunity - identify the best time to deliver elements of the programme. Our alternative approach aims to minimise the overall time, trouble and costs associated with demonstrating environmental performance by ensuring that decisions are made at the time when they offer greatest benefit and by minimising unnecessary rework. Our advice has helped to reduce the project costs and minimise delays associated with regulatory queries and interventions. This paper describes the journey that we have taken with our clients in developing our alternative approach to demonstrating environmental performance. We explain the UK regulatory context and explore the need for change. We present a number of case studies related to new nuclear power stations and other new facilities on existing nuclear sites that demonstrate the successful application of our alternative approach. We provide examples of how we have successfully implemented the outputs of our alternative approach into project and corporate management arrangements. Finally, we examine feedback from clients, regulators and other interested parties to propose future refinements. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

An adaptive scalable fully implicit algorithm based on stabilized finite element for reduced visco-resistive MHD

The magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) equations are continuum models used in the study of a wide range of plasma physics systems, including the evolution of complex plasma dynamics in tokamak disruptions. However, efficient numerical solution methods for MHD are extremely challenging due to disparate time and length scales, strong hyperbolic phenomena, and nonlinearity. Additionally, therefore the development of scalable, implicit MHD algorithms and high-resolution adaptive mesh refinement strategies is of considerable importance. In this work, we develop a high-order stabilized finite-element algorithm for the reduced visco-resistive MHD equations based on the MFEM finite element library (mfem.org). The scheme is fully implicit, solved with the Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov (JFNK) method with a physics-based preconditioning strategy. Our preconditioning strategy is a generalization of the physics-based preconditioning methods in Chacón et al. (2002) to adaptive, stabilized finite elements. Algebraic multigrid methods are used to invert sub-block operators to achieve scalability. A parallel adaptive mesh refinement scheme with dynamic load-balancing is implemented to efficiently resolve the multi-scale spatial features of the system. Our implementation uses the MFEM framework, which provides arbitrary-order polynomials and flexible adaptive conforming and non-conforming meshes capabilities. Results demonstrate the accuracy, efficiency, and scalability of the implicit scheme in the presence of large scale disparity. The potential of the AMR approach is demonstrated on an island coalescence problem in the high Lundquist-number regime (≥ 10 7 ) with the successful resolution of plasmoid instabilities and thin current sheets.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Experimental setup combining in situ hard X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and real-time surface X-ray diffraction for characterizing atomic and electronic structure evolution during complex oxide heterostructure growth

We describe the next-generation system for in situ characterization of a complex oxide thin film and heterostructure growth by pulsed laser deposition (PLD) using synchrotron hard X-rays. The system consists of a PLD chamber mounted on a diffractometer allowing both real-time surface X-ray diffraction (SXRD) and in situ hard X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (HAXPES). HAXPES is performed in the incident X-ray energy range from 4 to 12 keV using a Scienta EW4000 electron energy analyzer mounted on the PLD chamber fixed parallel with the surface normal. In addition to the standard application mode of HAXPES for disentangling surface from bulk properties, the increased penetration depth of high energy photoelectrons is used for investigation of the electronic structure changes through thin films grown deliberately as variable thickness capping layers. Such heterostructures represent model systems for investigating a variety of critical thickness and dead layer phenomena observed at complex oxide interfaces. In this new mode of operation, in situ HAXPES is used to determine the electronic structure associated with unique structural features identified by real-time SXRD during thin film growth. The system is configured for using both laboratory excitation sources off-line and on-line operation at beamline 33-ID-D at the Advanced Photon Source. We illustrate the performance of the system by preliminary scattering and spectroscopic data on oxygen vacancy ordering induced perovskite-to-brownmillerite reversible phase transformation in La 2/3 Sr 1/3 MnO 3 films capped with oxygen deficient SrTiO 3–δ (100) layers of varying thickness.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Barium cloud evolution and striation formation in the magnetospheric release on September 21, 1971

The joint NASA-Max Planck Institute Barium Ion Cloud (BIC) Experiment on September 21, 1971 involved the release of 1.7 kg of neutral barium at an altitude of 31,500 km at a latitude of 6.93 deg N. and a longitude of 74.40 deg W. A theoretical model describing the barium neutral cloud expansion and the ion cloud formation is developed. The mechanism of formation of the striational features observed in the release is also discussed. Two candidate instabilities, which may contribute to striation formation, are examined. The drift instability stemming from the outwardly directed drag force exerted on the ions by the outstreaming neutrals is rejected on the grounds that the ion density is too low during the collision-dominated phase of the cloud expansion to support this kind of instability. The joint action of Rayleigh-Taylor and flute instabilities plausibly accounts for the observed striational structure. This same mechanism may well be operative at times of sudden injection of plasma into the inner magnetosphere during geomagnetic storms and may thus contribute to the formation of field-alined inhomogeneities which serve as whistler ducts.

Adamson, D.↗

The micrometeoroid complex and evolution of the lunar regolith

Monte Carlo-based computer calculations, as well as analytical approaches utilizing probabilistic arguments, were applied to gain insight into the principal regolith impact processes and their resulting kinetics. Craters 10 to 1500 m in diameter are largely responsible for the overall growth of the regolith. As a consequence the regolith has to be envisioned as a complex sequence of discrete ejecta blankets. Such blankets constitute first-order discontinuities in the evolving debris layer. The micrometeoroid complex then operates intensely on these fresh ejecta blankets and accomplishes only in an uppermost layer of approximately 1-mm thickness. The absolute flux of micrometeoroids based on lunar rock analyses averaged over the past few 10 to the 6th power years is approximately an order of magnitude lower than presentday satellite fluxes; however, there is indication that the flux increased in the past 10 to the 4th power years to become compatible with the satellite data. Furthermore, there is detailed evidence that the micrometeoroid complex existed throughout geologic time.

Horz, F.↗

Wide Band Gap Chalcopyrite Photoelectrodes for Direct Water Splitting (Final Technical Report)

The chalcopyrite material class, typically identified by its most popular alloy CuInGaSe 2 , provides exceptionally good candidates for photoelectrochemical (PEC) water splitting and has the potential to meet DoE EERE’s targets in terms of hydrogen production costs (less than $2/gge). Some key advantages of this class include remarkable photon-to-electron conversion efficiency and a high Faradaic efficiency for the hydrogen evolution reaction, two characteristics essential for efficient PEC water splitting. However, the band gaps of commonly used chalcopyrites in the photovoltaic field (1.0-1.6 eV) are too narrow to be compatible with the multi-junction approach for efficient PEC hydrogen production, in which a stack of solar absorbers generates the bias required for water splitting. Nonetheless, previous studies performed by our team demonstrated that chalcopyrites’ narrow band gaps could be effectively widened using simple conversion steps, leading to functional chalcopyrite-based PEC electrodes with optical band gap in the 1.8-2.4 eV range, making this class highly suitable for renewable hydrogen production via water splitting. This multi-disciplinary research program lead by the University of Hawai’i/Hawai’i Natural Energy Institute combined unique analytical techniques (UNLV), state-of-the-art theoretical modeling (LLNL) with advanced thin film materials synthesis (HNEI, NREL and Stanford) to provide deeper understanding of wide band gap chalcopyrite-based PEC materials and engineer high performance/corrosion-resistant photocathodes with tunable energetics and compatible with the multi-junction approach. The goals of this project were to demonstrate photoelectrochemical (PEC) solar-hydrogen production using a dual absorber system with a solar-to-hydrogen conversion efficiency of at least 15% with an operational life up to 2,000 hours and capable of generating at least 3 liters of hydrogen in 8 hours. After a brief introduction (Section 1) and description of our work plan (Section 2), we present in Section 3 our results on the development of new wide bandgap copper chalcopyrites absorbers for PEC waters splitting. We first show through modeling how alloying can be used to tailor the optical properties and/or surface energetics of various material candidates. We also present how specific defects (e.g., GaCu) can lead to recombination centers within the forbidden gap of copper-poor chalcopyrites. Then, we present our efforts to synthesize high efficiency wide band gap CuGa 3 Se 5 , CuGa(S,Se) 2 and Cu(In,Ga)S 2 photocathodes capable of generating photocurrent density over 10 mA/cm 2 . We also demonstrate that Cu-rich absorbers should be avoided as they lead to poor sub-band gap optical transmission. In Section 4, we first report on our efforts to tune the energetics of chalcopyrites toward the hydrogen evolution reaction. First, we quantified the energetics of wide band gap chalcopyrites interfaced with conventional CdS buffer layer, as measured with X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy techniques, and evidence the presence of a large (and undesirable) conduction band offset at this interface. Then, we highlight some of the work performed with alternative buffer layers, including In 2 S 3 . Durability improvements with various ultra-thin protective layers are presented in Section 5. Our data show that TiO 2 combined with MoS 2 can significantly improve chalcopyrites lifetime up to 350 hours under continuous operation at 8 mA/cm 2 . Finally, in Section 6 we report strategies to integrate chalcopyrite photocathodes into standalone tandem PEC devices. Although promising methods were proposed for both mechanical and monolithic stacking with narrow band gap PV drivers, no functional device was fabricated on time to fulfill the program end goals.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Machine learning pipeline for denoising low signal-to-noise ratio and out-of-distribution transmission electron microscopy datasets

High-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) is crucial for observing material’s structural and morphological evolution at Angstrom scales, but the electron beam can alter these processes. Devices such as CMOS-based direct-electron detectors operating in electron-counting mode can be utilized to substantially reduce the electron dosage. However, the resulting images often lead to a low signal-to-noise ratio, which requires frame integration that sacrifices temporal resolution. Several machine learning (ML) models have been recently developed to successfully denoise HRTEM images. Yet, these models are often computationally expensive, and their inference speeds on GPUs are outpaced by the imaging speed of advanced detectors, precluding in situ analysis. Furthermore, the performance of these denoising models on datasets with imaging conditions that deviate from the training datasets has not been evaluated. To mitigate these gaps, we propose a new self-supervised ML denoising pipeline specifically designed for time-series HRTEM images. This pipeline integrates a blind-spot convolution neural network with pre-processing and post-processing steps, including drift correction and low-pass filtering. Results demonstrate that our model outperforms various other ML and non-ML denoising methods in noise reduction and contrast enhancement, leading to improved visual clarity of atomic features. Additionally, the model is drastically faster than U-Net-based ML models and demonstrates excellent out-of-distribution generalization. The model’s computational inference speed is in the order of milliseconds per image, rendering it suitable for application in in-situ HRTEM experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Lunar settlements--a socio-economic outlook

The primary ingredient in a Lunar Settlement Program is the people. At the very high cost that will be required to transport, maintain and supply the people who will staff the Lunar operation, it is important to do everything possible to ensure their continued effectiveness in such an isolated, confined, and barren environment. This paper will attempt to identify the issues involved in providing for effective human performance in Lunar Settlements. The approach to be used will be contextual, and thus will not only examine the facets of the Lunar Settlement itself, but will also look at the organizational elements and the design and development processes used in project management from the point of view of long term success and cost effectiveness. The approach will also attempt to look at the Lunar Settlement "in time" as it is connected to events and experiences as they will evolve from the Space Station to Lunar Settlements. Finally, the approach will be contextual in the range of disciplines considered and their impact on planning, evolution, and activities in the entire process of Lunar Settlement. We will hope that Lunar settlers will be able to work and live as effective team members, and to make that possible, the designers, developers, builders, and managers must also function as a coherent team working together to bring about a common goal.

Space Flight/economics/organization & administrati↗