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GAS REGULATION OF GALAXIES: THE EVOLUTION OF THE COSMIC SPECIFIC STAR FORMATION RATE, THE METALLICITY-MASS-STAR-FORMATION RATE RELATION, AND THE STELLAR CONTENT OF HALOS

A very simple physical model of galaxies is one in which the formation of stars is instantaneously regulated by the mass of gas in a reservoir with mass loss scaling with the star-formation rate (SFR). This model links together three different aspects of the evolving galaxy population: (1) the cosmic time evolution of the specific star-formation rate (sSFR) relative to the growth of halos, (2) the gas-phase metallicities across the galaxy population and over cosmic time, and (3) the ratio of the stellar to dark matter mass of halos. The gas regulator is defined by the gas consumption timescale ({epsilon}{sup -1}) and the mass loading {lambda} of the wind outflow {lambda}{center_dot}SFR. The simplest regulator, in which {epsilon} and {lambda} are constant, sets the sSFR equal to exactly the specific accretion rate of the galaxy; more realistic situations lead to an sSFR that is perturbed from this precise relation. Because the gas consumption timescale is shorter than the timescale on which the system evolves, the metallicity Z is set primarily by the instantaneous operation of the regulator system rather than by the past history of the system. The metallicity of the gas reservoir depends on {epsilon}, {lambda}, and sSFR, and the regulator system therefore naturally produces a Z(m{sub star}, SFR) relation if {epsilon} and {lambda} depend on the stellar mass m{sub star}. Furthermore, this relation will be the same at all epochs unless the parameters {epsilon} and {lambda} themselves change with time. A so-called fundamental metallicity relation is naturally produced by these conditions. The overall mass-metallicity relation Z(m{sub star}) directly provides the fraction f{sub star}(m{sub star}) of incoming baryons that are being transformed into stars. The observed Z(m{sub star}) relation of Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) galaxies implies a strong dependence of stellar mass on halo mass that reconciles the different faint-end slopes of the stellar and halo mass functions in standard {Lambda}CDM models. The observed relation also boosts the sSFR relative to the specific accretion rate and produces a different dependence on mass, both of which are observed. The derived Z(m{sub star}, SFR) relation for the regulator system is fit to published Z(m{sub star}, SFR) data for the SDSS galaxy population, yielding {epsilon} and {lambda} as functions of m{sub star}. The fitted {epsilon} is consistent with observed molecular gas-depletion timescales in galaxies (allowing for the extra atomic gas), while the fitted {lambda} is also reasonable. The gas-regulator model also successfully reproduces the Z(m{sub star}) metallicities of star-forming galaxies at z {approx} 2. One consequence of this analysis is that it suggests that the m{sub star}-m{sub halo} relation is established by baryonic processes operating within galaxies, and that a significant fraction (40%) of baryons coming into the halos are being processed through the galaxies. This fraction may be more or less constant. The success of the gas-regulator model in simultaneously explaining many diverse observed relations over the 0 < z < 2 interval suggests that the evolution of galaxies is governed by simple physics that form the basis for this model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Ubiquitous Power Electronics in Future Power Systems: Recommendations to fully utilize fast control capabilities

Power electronics is becoming ubiquitous in power systems because the rapid growth of variable renewable generation such as wind and solar, responsive load, electric vehicles, energy storage, as well as DC transmission. As a result, a high percentage of electricity will be generated, transmitted or consumed by power electronics in the future power system. Such a high penetration of power electronics is changing power system operation landscapes and dynamic characteristics. Two major kinds of impact are reduced system mechanical inertia by inverter-based resources displacing conventional generation and active participation of many distributed energy resources through inverters. This has caused significant reliability challenges for power system operation. The mitigation approach so far has mostly focused on accommodating power electronics inverters as passive devices or creating synthetic inertias to make inverter-based generation behaving as conventional generators. However, the high-speed control capabilities of power electronics present new opportunities for achieving an optimal performance beyond conventional power systems. A lower-inertia system can be more responsive for improving reliability, and distributed small resources can be more adaptive and scalable for better flexibility and resilience. Power electronic inverters are capable of multiple fast control functions. To fully utilized the ubiquitous power electronics in power systems requires technology advancements in the following areas: data and communications to capture the new dynamic behaviors introduced by power electronics; modeling and simulation to understand the behaviors of power electronics and its interactions with other components in the context of power systems; control and optimization methods for fully utilizing the capabilities of power electronics for a new paradigm of performance beyond the traditional inertia-heavy system; and significant upgrades in power electronics hardware to cater to the new control capabilities. If properly controlled and optimized, power electronics can help transform the power system to be responsive, adaptive, and scalable.

Huang, Zhenyu↗

Reconfigurable Real-Time Power Grid Emulator for Systems With High Penetration of Renewables

Novel power system control and new utility devices need to be tested before their actual deployment to the power grid. To assist with such a testing need, real-time digital emulators such as RTDS and Opal-RT can be used to connect to the physical world and form a hardware in the loop (HIL) emulation. However, due to the limitations of today's computational resources, the accuracy and fidelity suffer from different levels of model reductions in purely digital simulations. CURENT has developed a reconfigurable electric grid hardware testbed (HTB) to overcome the limitations of digital emulators. The HTB has been used to develop measurement, control, modeling, and actuation techniques for a national grid with a high penetration of renewables. The power electronic-based system includes emulators for synchronous generators; photovoltaics with grid-interfacing inverter; wind turbines; induction motor loads, ZIP loads, power electronic loads; batteries; ac and dc transmission lines; short circuit faults and grid relay protection; and a multiterminal HVDC overlay including power electronics interfaces. The system contains real elements of power flow, measurement, communication, protection, and control that mimic what would be seen in an actual electric grid. This paper presents an overview of the HTB and several scenarios that have been run to determine control and actions needed for the future power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Dynamic State Estimation and Parameter Calibration of DFIG based on Ensemble Kalman Filter

With the growing interest in the application of wind energy, doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) plays an essential role in the industry nowadays. To deal with the increasing stochastic variations introduced by intermittent wind resource and responsive loads, dynamic state estimation (DSE) are introduced in any power system associated with DFIGs. However, sometimes this dynamic analysis canould not work because the parameters of DFIGs are not accurate enough. To solve the problem, an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method is proposed for the state estimation and parameter calibration tasks. In this paper, a DFIG is modeled and implemented with the EnKF method. Sensitivity analysis is demonstrated regarding the measurement noise, initial state errors and parameter errors. The results indicate this EnKF method has a robust performance on the state estimation and parameter calibration of DFIGs.

Fan, Rui↗

Economic Competitiveness of U.S. Utility-Scale Photovoltaics Systems in 2015: Regional Cost Modeling of Installed Cost ($/W) and LCOE ($/kWh)

Utility-scale photovoltaics (PV) system growth is largely driven by the economic metrics of total installed costs and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), which differ by region. This study details regional cost factors, including environment (wind speed and snow loads), labor costs, material costs, sales taxes, and permitting costs using a new system-level bottom-up cost modeling approach. We use this model to identify regional all-in PV installed costs for fixed-tilt and one-axis tracker systems in the United States with consideration of union and non-union labor costs in 2015. LCOEs using those regional installed costs are then modeled and spatially presented. Finally, we assess the cost reduction opportunities of increasing module conversion efficiencies on PV system costs in order to indicate the possible economic impacts of module technology advancements and help future research and development (R&D) effects in the context of U.S. SunShot targets.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

MoorDyn V2: New Capabilities in Mooring System Components and Load Cases

MoorDyn, an open-source mooring dynamics model, is being expanded with capabilities for additional mooring system features and load cases. As floating wind turbine technology matures, mooring systems are becoming more sophisticated and more complex scenarios need to be considered in the design process. Mooring systems may have synthetic line materials, ballast/buoyancy bodies along the lines, or interconnections between platforms. Failure modes may involve multiple cascading line failures that depend on mooring system dynamics. Features recently added to MoorDyn aim to address these emerging needs. MoorDyn’s linear elasticity model has been supplemented to support user-defined stress-strain curves, which can be adjusted to represent synthetic mooring materials. Rigid six-degree-of-freedom bodies in the mooring system can now be modeled using two new model objects. “Rod” objects provide an option for rigid cylindrical bodies. They use the existing Morison equation-based hydrodynamics model and can be connected to mooring lines at either end. “Body” objects provide a generic six-degree-of-freedom rigid-body representation based on a lumped-parameter model of translational and rotational properties. Rod objects can be added to Body objects and mooring lines can be attached at any location, allowing a wide variety of submerged structures to be integrated into the mooring system. Lastly, a means of dynamically simulating mooring line failures has been implemented. These new features, currently in the C++ version of MoorDyn, are described and then demonstrated on a two-turbine shared-mooring array. A qualitative view of the results suggests the new features are functioning as expected.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗

Science Campaign-1 Pulsed Power Efforts [Slides]

The PHELIX portable pulsed-power driver is discussed. It is composed of two air-insulated, single Marx modules capable of storing 300 kJ of electrical energy. The Marx are cable coupled to a toroidal transformer with a 4:1 winding ratio. The experimental load is located at the center of the transformer. The components are mounted in a 8’x10’x18’ boxcar which can be moved in and out of the beam line at the LANL proton radiography facility and prevents EMI within the facility. PHELIX has successfully completed two liner implosion experiments with full diagnostic return from flash X-ray imaging, optical Faraday load current, and multi-channel PDV. Computational modeling with both the legacy 1D MHD code RAVEN and the LANL ASC-LAP FLAG code show good agreement with data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A NuMAD Model of the Sandia TX-100 Blade

This report provides basic documentation of information used to create a TX-100 finite element model using NuMAD. The model is intended for use as a structural model. Use of this model for aerodynamic analyses is to be performed with caution. The TX-100 blade was designed to demonstrate the use of bend-twist coupled behavior for fatigue loads alleviation in a wind turbine blade. Refer to the References at the end of this report for full and in-depth information on the TX-100 blade project.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Final Technical Report: Distributed Controls for High Penetrations of Renewables

The goal of this effort was to apply four potential control analysis/design approaches to the design of distributed grid control systems to address the impact of latency and communications uncertainty with high penetrations of photovoltaic (PV) generation. The four techniques considered were: optimal fixed structure control; Nyquist stability criterion; vector Lyapunov analysis; and Hamiltonian design methods. A reduced order model of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) developed for the Matlab Power Systems Toolbox (PST) was employed for the study, as well as representative smaller systems (e.g., a two-area, three-area, and four-area power system). Excellent results were obtained with the optimal fixed structure approach, and the methodology we developed was published in a journal article. This approach is promising because it offers a method for designing optimal control systems with the feedback signals available from Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) data as opposed to full state feedback or the design of an observer. The Nyquist approach inherently handles time delay and incorporates performance guarantees (e.g., gain and phase margin). We developed a technique that works for moderate sized systems, but the approach does not scale well to extremely large system because of computational complexity. The vector Lyapunov approach was applied to a two area model to demonstrate the utility for modeling communications uncertainty. Application to large power systems requires a method to automatically expand/contract the state space and partition the system so that communications uncertainty can be considered. The Hamiltonian Surface Shaping and Power Flow Control (HSSPFC) design methodology was selected to investigate grid systems for energy storage requirements to support high penetration of variable or stochastic generation (such as wind and PV) and loads. This method was applied to several small system models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

OC6 Phase III Definition Document

The objective of Phase III of the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation and unCertainty (OC6) project was to evaluate the accuracy of aerodynamic load predictions by offshore wind modeling tools for a floating offshore wind turbine as it experiences large surge-translational and pitch-rotational motion, as would occur during normal operation. A variety of models were examined in the project, with the goal of performing a three-way validation between engineering-level tools, higher-fidelity tools, and measurement data from two wind tunnel experimental campaigns. This document provides the necessary information to model and simulate the system studied in the OC6 Phase III project. This information is not only useful for project participants, but also future modelers who want to replicate this work for verification and validation purposes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The useful potential of using existing data to uniquely identify predictable wind events and regimes, part 1

Correlations between standard meteorological data and wind power generation potential were developed. Combined with appropriate wind forecasts, these correlations can be useful to load dispatchers to supplement conventional energy sources. Hourly wind data were analyzed for four sites, each exhibiting a unique physiography. These sites are Amarillo, Texas; Ludington, Michigan; Montauk Point, New York; and San Gorgonio, California. Synoptic weather maps and tables are presented to illustrate various wind 'regimes' at these sites.

Trettel, D. W.↗

Solar cycle dependence of the location of the Venus bow shock

Initial measurements of the Venus bow shock obtained by Pioneer Venus in 1979 near solar maximum indicated that the bow shock was on average 2.44 RV from the center of the planet in the terminator plane. This is 0.35 RV further from Venus than observed by Venera 9/10 in 1976. In the past this discrepancy has been attributed to some effect of the solar cycle. Recent measurements by Pioneer Venus support this interpretation. In 1980 the distance to the bow shock reached a maximum of 2.45 RV and since then has been almost steadily declining toward the distance measured by Venera near solar minimum. The variation in bow shock position is well correlated with the sunspot number and the F 10.7 cm flux over this period. This behavior is attributed to the variation in the neutral atmosphere of Venus with the solar cycle and its subsequent effect on the mass-loading of the solar wind.

Alexander, C. J.↗

Magnetotails at unmagnetized bodies - Comparison of Comet Giacobini-Zinner and Venus

It is found that the near ionopause environs play a crucial role in the tail formation process at both Venus and G-Z and that draping at the two very different sized bodies occurs on ionopause scale sizes. On the other hand, ion densities, downtail mass fluxes, tailward J x B forces, and lobe betas are factors of about 10,000, 50, 100, and 20 times greater in the G-Z tail than in Venus', while bulk flow speeds and ion temperatures are factors of about 15 and 240 times lower. These large quantitative differences in the properties within the two magnetotails are attributable to the significantly greater upstream mass loading of the solar wind by the extended neutral atmosphere at G-Z (comets in general) compared to the gravitationally bound atmosphere of Venus.

Mccomas, D. J.↗

To what extent is mass loading responsible for the Venus bowshock precursor?

Significant ion and electron flux enhancements immediately upstream of the Venus bow shock were observed by the Electron Temperature Probe on the Pioneer Venus Orbiter. It is shown that mass loading of the solar wind by oxygen ions accounts for only about 10 percent of the observed effect.

Fontheim, Ernest G.↗

Investigation of plasma density bulge in front of Venus bow shock

Significant ion and electron flux enhancements immediately upstream of the Venus bow shock were observed by the Electron Temperature Probe on the Pioneer Venus Orbiter. Mass loading of the solar wind by oxygen ions accounts for only about 10 percent of the observed effect.

Source record↗

Venus bowshock precursor

Significant ion and electron flux enhancements immediately upstream of the Venus bowshock have been observed by the Electron Temperature Probe on the Pioneer Venus Orbiter. It is shown that mass loading of the solar wind by oxygen ions (without the effect of MHD turbulence) accounts for only about 3.5 percent of the observed effect. Evidence is presented that turbulence may play a nonnegligible role in the ion pickup process in front of the Venus bowshock.

Fontheim, Ernest G.↗

Aeroelastic stability and response of rotating structures

A summary of the work performed during the progress period is presented. Analysis methods for predicting loads and instabilities of wind turbines were developed. Three new areas of research to aid the Advanced Turboprop Project (ATP) were initiated and developed. These three areas of research are aeroelastic analysis methods for cascades including blade and disk flexibility; stall flutter analysis; and computational aeroelasticity.

Keith, Theo G., Jr.↗

The Use of Wheel Brakes on Airplanes

The results of tests to determine the effect of wheel brakes on the landing run of an airplane under conditions of load and at various wind velocities are presented.

Carroll, Thomas↗