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1,062 records · Page 51

High Energy Hydroforming Friction Stir Welded 2050 Al-Li Blanks for Aerospace Domes and Cones

Friction stir welded (FSW) aluminum blanks offer larger preform sizes than available from the mill in single width plates. Large blanks made from aerospace-grade aluminum alloys are essential for making large domes and cones for launch vehicles and crew vehicles. Previous research efforts have demonstrated >5m FSW blanks can be formed into large domes or cones using spin forming, but the subsequent solution heat treatment consistently led to abnormal grain growth (AGG). The AGG phenomenon occurs because the FSW blanks must be spin formed in the -O annealed temper to withstand the high strain process without cracking. Subsequently, the solution heat treatment process leads to the onset of AGG, whereby a small number of grains grow much larger than the surrounding matrix. Ultimately, the large grains and bimodal grain-size distribution leads to unacceptable ductility in the short-transverse direction of the part. Alternatively, explosive hydroforming is a nascent process that can be applied to large and thick aerospace-grade aluminum alloy blanks in the -T3 temper and only require a post-forming artificial aging process to a -T8. Avoiding the solution heat treatment (SHT) process mitigates AGG, and also eliminates the need for very rare drop-furnace quench baths that can accommodate a part size larger than 5m in diameter. This presentation summarizes a Lockheed Martin-led effort that demonstrated explosive hydroforming of a 1.9m diameter, 39mm thick 2050 aluminum lithium FSW blank. Details will be provided on the process flow, mechanical properties, and metallographic analyses. This work was performed in partnership with NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) under a NASA Announcement of Collaboration Opportunities program.

Friction stir welded blank

Semiconducting Electrides Derived from Sodalite: A First-Principles Study

Electrides are ionic crystals, with electrons acting as anions occupying well-defined lattice sites. These exotic materials have attracted considerable attention in recent years for potential applications in catalysis, rechargeable batteries, and display technology. Among this class of materials, electride semiconductors can further expand the horizon of potential applications due to the presence of a band gap. However, there are only limited reports on semiconducting electrides, hindering the understanding of their physical and chemical properties. In recent work, we initiated an approach to derive potential electrides via selective removal of symmetric Wyckoff sites of anions from existing complex minerals. Herein, we present a follow-up effort to design semiconducting electrides from parental complex sodalites. Among four candidate compounds, we found that a cubic Ca 4 Al 6 O 12 structure with the I-43m space group symmetry exhibits perfect electron localization at the sodalite cages, with a narrow electronic band gap of 1.8 eV, making it suitable for use in photocatalysis. Analysis of the electronic structures reveals that a lower electronegativity of the surrounding cations drives greater electron localization and promotes the formation of an electride band near the Fermi level. Our work proposes an alternative approach for designing new semiconducting electrides under ambient conditions and offers guidelines for further experimental exploration.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Technology Readiness Assessment for Stirling Power Convertor

Stirling-based power conversion system could represent a critical enabling technology for future NASA missions, offering significantly enhanced power efficiency over traditional thermoelectric systems. To ensure the successful infusion of this technology into deep space and planetary surface missions, a rigorous evaluation of its maturity and associated risks is essential. The objective of this Technology Readiness Assessment (TRA) is to determine the current technology readiness level (TRL) of the Stirling power convertor and identify key technical risks and challenges associated with its maturation and potential infusion into a targeted flight system. The evaluation process will rigorously follow the NASA TRA procedure: (1) determining the requirements that underpin the design, function, and performance; (2) finding and listing all new technology elements (NTEs) and critical technology elements (CTEs); (3) identifying the level of integration assumed for the assessment; and (4) assessing the TRL for each NTE and CTE. The overall subassembly TRL will then be determined via a roll-up using the “weakest link” criterion, culminating in a final (5) assessment of risks to further progression of maturity. This paper will present the results of a comprehensive technology readiness assessment (TRA) conducted on the Stirling-based dynamic power conversion subassembly, excluding the radioisotope heat source. The paper will also describe a detailed breakdown of the TRL roll-up and a matrix of identified risks and recommended mitigation paths, along with identified key technical risks and challenges to achieve the required long-duration performance. Key Words: Radioisotope Power Conversion, Technology Readiness Assessment

Radioisotope Power Conversion

Improving Adhesive Bondline Time of Flight Predictions During Autoclave Cure Utilizing Machine Learning

Composite materials are increasingly being used in aerospace applications due to their superior strength-to-weight ratio compared to commonly used metals. A current limitation to widespread adoption is the certification of adhesively bonded joints. One approach to improving adhesive bonding in composites is accurately measuring the thickness of adhesive bondlines in composite laminates. Precise bondline thickness control is essential for aerospace applications where adhesive layer thickness directly affects joint fracture properties and structural performance. This study focused on implementing machine learning techniques to determine the ultrasonic time of flight (directly correlated to thickness) in adhesive bondlines throughout autoclave cure cycles. A high-temperature (use up to 180°C) ultrasonic scanning system was deployed in an autoclave to provide time of flight data through composite panels. Three experiments were conducted on the curing of 305 mm × 305 mm unidirectional composite panels. In the first experiment, a piecewise function was fit for the temperature correction factor to account for changing autoclave temperatures. Due to deficiencies in the first calibration experiment, a second experiment was run, and the results were used to train a machine learning model. The revised experiment, in combination with the machine learning model, significantly increased the accuracy of the bondline time of flight predictions (~14% error reduced to <1%). Data was processed using the Regression Learner Application in MATLAB®, with a Support Vector Machine selected for the model. The result was a machine learning algorithm capable of reliably quantifying ultrasonic time of flight through adhesive bondlines. The third experiment provided independent test data for the machine learning model, demonstrating that the model produces accurate predictions from data beyond its training set.

Machine Learning

Update on Radiochemical Assessment of High Burnup Commercially Irradiated Fuel

This work documents an effort to collect burnup measurements on a high burnup rod, designated 6XV, and first cycle accident tolerant fuel (ATF) rod, designated 47I, to enable benchmarking of fuel performance codes and neutronics codes. In addition to measurements, Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA) full-core-depletion analysis was also performed for the rods that were experimentally analyzed to provide an opportunity for code validation. This effort focuses on collecting data from rods irradiated at Byron Generating Station and shipped to the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) hot-cells. This data will also anchor non-destructive examination evaluations of burnup of the various fuel rods undergoing postirradiation examination (PIE) at ORNL. Previous PIE of these fuel rods provides some guidance on the burnup trend across the fuel. Axial gamma spectroscopy scans provide a measure of relative changes in burnup across a fuel pin. Mass spectrometry based burnup measurements performed for this work at specific axial locations in the fuel are fully quantitative. By combining the mass spectrometry data with the gamma scans it is possible to more quantitatively evaluate axial variations in burnup across the entire fuel pin [1]. The combined set of burnup evaluations will be made available to other organizations that have an interest in high burnup radiochemistry data for validation of neutronic simulations and source term evaluation such as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).

Harp, Jason [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),

Analytical Model for Steady Flow through a Finite Channel with One Porous Wall with Arbitrary Variable Suction or Injection

This paper presents an exact solution of two-dimensional laminar flow through a finite length channel with one porous wall. It improves upon previous solutions by (1) satisfying the no-slip boundary condition at the channel dead end, (2) adding a turbulent term to the porous wall boundary condition, (3) allowing for arbitrary variable suction or injection across the porous wall, and (4) model validation against new cryogenic liquid hydrogen and oxygen experimental data. Of particular interest in the current work is the modeling of cryogenic propellant flow through a porous liquid acquisition device (LAD) screen and channel inside a propellant tank. First, a detailed review of the literature is presented for previously attempted solutions to channel flow with one porous wall. Next, the governing equations, boundary conditions, and model assumptions are used to derive the analytical flow solution and present general model results for pressure and velocity fields within the channel. Then, the model solution is compared with horizontal LAD channel flow data in liquid oxygen as well as vertical LAD channel flow data in an inverted outflow configuration in liquid hydrogen. Model results are used to update the static cryogenic bubble point pressure model with a dynamic bubble point term which factors in enhanced convection and cooling at the screen during propellant outflow. Convective heat transfer at the LAD screen during outflow is also quantified by comparing model and data. The new analytical flow solution with the dynamic bubble point model is shown to compare well with available cryogenic experimental data

Navier Stokes Equations

A Review of Pump Package Assembly Anomalies and Demonstration to Gain Motor Controller Replacement Capability

The International Space Station (ISS) generates heat within the US modules from systems used to operate the station, maintain crew health, and conduct science experiments in the orbiting laboratory. The Internal Thermal Control System (ITCS) collects this heat in water loops and transfers it to the external ammonia system for rejection to space. The ITCS uses six Pump Package Assemblies (PPA) as the motive force to circulate the water within the Lab, Node 2, and Node 3 (Node 1 is parasitic to the Lab and Node 3 ITCS loops). In the life of ISS, 3 PPAs have had to be replaced and 2 PPAs are currently showing signs of degradation. The first PPA to fail in 2003 was due to early coolant chemistry issues; the remaining pump failures and current pump degradations are determined to be related to the Pump/Fan Motor Controller (PFMC), with their individual signatures all being unique to this point. The PFMC of one of the failed PPAs was returned and testing confirmed its sub-components to be the root cause of the PPA failure. Due to the relative size and weight of the standalone PFMC in comparison to the integrated assembly, it is desired, from a launch and on-orbit stowage perspective, to replace the PFMC component of the degraded PPA instead of the entire PPA. The PPA was not designed for this capability, so on the ground demonstrations are planned using crew tools to show that the PFMC can be replaced on-orbit while maintaining full functionality. This paper will focus on the signatures of the two most recent PPA failures and the two PPAs showing signs of degradation, in addition to presenting the findings from the PFMC demonstration effort.

Aaron Rodriguez

A Review of Pump Package Assembly Anomalies and Demonstration to Gain Motor Controller Replacement Capability

The International Space Station (ISS) generates heat within the US modules from systems used to operate the station, maintain crew health, and conduct science experiments in the orbiting laboratory. The Internal Thermal Control System (ITCS) collects this heat in water loops and transfers it to the external ammonia system for rejection to space. The ITCS uses six Pump Package Assemblies (PPA) as the motive force to circulate the water within the Lab, Node 2, and Node 3 (Node 1 is parasitic to the Lab and Node 3 ITCS loops). In the life of ISS, 3 PPAs have had to be replaced and 2 PPAs are currently showing signs of degradation. The first PPA to fail in 2003 was due to early coolant chemistry issues; the remaining pump failures and current pump degradations are determined to be related to the Pump/Fan Motor Controller (PFMC), with their individual signatures all being unique to this point. The PFMC of one of the failed PPAs was returned and testing confirmed its sub-components to be the root cause of the PPA failure. Due to the relative size and weight of the standalone PFMC in comparison to the integrated assembly, it is desired, from a launch and on-orbit stowage perspective, to replace the PFMC component of the degraded PPA instead of the entire PPA. The PPA was not designed for this capability, so on the ground demonstrations are planned using crew tools to show that the PFMC can be replaced on-orbit while maintaining full functionality. This paper will focus on the signatures of the two most recent PPA failures and the two PPAs showing signs of degradation, in addition to presenting the findings from the PFMC demonstration effort.

Aaron Rodriguez

Design Trade-Offs in Composite Fuel Cell Membranes: Effects of Reinforcement and Chemical Additives

Perfluorosulfonic acid (PFSA) membranes are critical components in proton exchange membrane fuel cells, where performance depends on balancing ionic conductivity, mechanical durability, and chemical stability. This study characterizes a composite membrane (NC700) featuring PFSA-impregnated expanded polytetrafluoroethylene (ePTFE) reinforcement and cerium-based radical scavengers, benchmarked against unreinforced NR211. Complementary techniques, including electron microscopy, X-ray scattering, infrared spectroscopy, thermogravimetric analysis, and dynamic mechanical analysis, identify the structural and compositional strategies employed in NC700. Water sorption isotherms reveal lower water uptake for NC700 across all conditions, attributed to reinforcement and cerium incorporation. Reinforcement reduces in-plane swelling from 11% to 2.1% at 90% RH, confirming strong swelling anisotropy, while maintaining mechanical properties at elevated temperatures. While the ionic conductivity of NC700 is approximately 10% lower than that of NR211, the reduced thickness yields a 40% decrease in calculated area-specific resistance, suggesting the composite architecture can favorably shift the conductivity-stability trade-off. The composite structure also reduces gas permeability, indicating potential for improved separator function alongside favorable transport properties. Systematic deconvolution of reinforcement and additive contributions shows that conductivity losses from cerium incorporation are largely offset by gains from the lower equivalent-weight polymer, providing quantitative relationships that may guide composite membrane design for fuel cells and other electrochemical applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

Improving the Performance of NEML2 with Modern Graph Compilation Backends

NEML2 vectorizes constitutive-model evaluation for large-scale multiphysics simulation, using PyTorch as its tensor backend so that a batch of material-point updates runs on CPU or GPU through a single implementation. In the two prior reports in this series it was a C++-native library, deployed through TorchScript tracing and just-in-time (JIT) compilation; it has since been rewritten from the ground up into a Python-native library deployed through Ahead-of-Time Inductor (AOTInductor), a modern PyTorch graph-compilation backend. The rewrite is driven by a persistent tension, not a language preference: NEML2 composes constitutive models at runtime from a registry of small, independently-authored pieces, and that flexibility is difficult to reconcile with the compile-time knowledge an efficient GPU kernel needs. This report documents the rewrite and the investment that accompanied it: the AOTInductor export pipeline that turns a Python-authored model into a portable, Python-free compiled artifact loadable from pure C++; the eager and compiled runtimes and the new implicit solver layer built on them; a head-to-head benchmark of legacy JIT against AOTInductor; the physics-model catalog and its worked examples; the developer tooling; and the corresponding overhaul of MOOSE’s NEML2 integration that lets MOOSE consume it. A central objective is to examine whether modern PyTorch graph-compilation backends are effective for MOOSE GPU integration. The benchmark answers directly: AOTInductor outperforms legacy JIT on every GPU scenario measured, by 1.0–4.5×. Modern graph-compilation backends are effective for MOOSE GPU integration, and AOTInductor specifically – not compilation in the abstract – is why.

Hu, Gary (Tianchen) [Argonne National Laboratory (

Selective ion transport through hydrated micropores in polymer membranes

Abstract Ion-conducting polymer membranes are essential in many separation processes and electrochemical devices, including electrodialysis 1 , redox flow batteries 2 , fuel cells 3 and electrolysers 4,5 . Controlling ion transport and selectivity in these membranes largely hinges on the manipulation of pore size. Although membrane pore structures can be designed in the dry state 6 , they are redefined upon hydration owing to swelling in electrolyte solutions. Strategies to control pore hydration and a deeper understanding of pore structure evolution are vital for accurate pore size tuning. Here we report polymer membranes containing pendant groups of varying hydrophobicity, strategically positioned near charged groups to regulate their hydration capacity and pore swelling. Modulation of the hydrated micropore size (less than two nanometres) enables direct control over water and ion transport across broad length scales, as quantified by spectroscopic and computational methods. Ion selectivity improves in hydration-restrained pores created by more hydrophobic pendant groups. These highly interconnected ion transport channels, with tuned pore gate sizes, show higher ionic conductivity and orders-of-magnitude lower permeation rates of redox-active species compared with conventional membranes, enabling stable cycling of energy-dense aqueous organic redox flow batteries. This pore size tailoring approach provides a promising avenue to membranes with precisely controlled ionic and molecular transport functions.

Science & Technology - Other Topics

Machine learning the electric field response of condensed phase systems using perturbed neural network potentials

Abstract The interaction of condensed phase systems with external electric fields is of major importance in a myriad of processes in nature and technology, ranging from the field-directed motion of cells (galvanotaxis), to geochemistry and the formation of ice phases on planets, to field-directed chemical catalysis and energy storage and conversion systems including supercapacitors, batteries and solar cells. Molecular simulation in the presence of electric fields would give important atomistic insight into these processes but applications of the most accurate methods such as ab-initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) are limited in scope by their computational expense. Here we introduce Perturbed Neural Network Potential Molecular Dynamics (PNNP MD) to push back the accessible time and length scales of such simulations. We demonstrate that important dielectric properties of liquid water including the field-induced relaxation dynamics, the dielectric constant and the field-dependent IR spectrum can be machine learned up to surprisingly high field strengths of about 0.2 V Å −1 without loss in accuracy when compared to ab-initio molecular dynamics. This is remarkable because, in contrast to most previous approaches, the two neural networks on which PNNP MD is based are exclusively trained on molecular configurations sampled from zero-field MD simulations, demonstrating that the networks not only interpolate but also reliably extrapolate the field response. PNNP MD is based on rigorous theory yet it is simple, general, modular, and systematically improvable allowing us to obtain atomistic insight into the interaction of a wide range of condensed phase systems with external electric fields.

Science & Technology - Other Topics

An Analysis of Energy Needs and Seawater Extraction Approaches for the Integration of Primary Magnesium Production with Nuclear Power

The cost of primary magnesium production is highly dominated by the energy required to produce the metal. This, along with the current geographical concentration of its production, makes the magnesium price vulnerable as energy-production paradigms begin to rapidly change. In this work, four nuclear-integration pathways for the efficient supply of heat and electricity to magnesium production from a nuclear power plant are considered. A production route using electrified metallothermic reduction is compared to a nuclear-heat-integrated electrolytic pathway. It is shown that the latter can achieve significantly lower primary energy consumption, 261 MJ/kg Mg compared with 416 MJ/kg Mg. The electrolytic pathway can also reduce emissions down to around 2.1 kgCO2/kg Mg, compared to around 34 kgCO2/kg Mg in the Pidgeon process. Beyond energy and emissions, the four pathways considered are also compared to their ability to reduce locational dependence of the production plant and reduce process complexity. This work also highlights future advances in magnesium production with a potential scheme for the efficient extraction of magnesium from seawater with coproduction of desalinated water and the potential of demand-side response from magnesium electrolysis. This is the first work to consider the full integration of primary magnesium production using nuclear cogeneration, and it is hoped the study paves the way for the analysis of economic nuclear integration within metal extraction and manufacturing.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

High-resolution modeling of indoor radon exposure with uncertainty quantification in Utah

Indoor radon accounts for 37% of population-level exposure to ionizing radiation in the United States. However, radon metrics are typically reported at coarse spatial scales, potentially obscuring meaningful local variation. We developed a high-resolution modeling framework to estimate indoor radon concentrations across Utah while explicitly quantifying predictive uncertainty. A total of 19,497 residential radon measurements collected between 2006 and 2017 were combined with environmental and housing characteristics and analyzed using a geospatial neural network that accommodates spatial dependence and nonlinear associations. Predictions were generated on a uniform hexagonal grid at 0.73 km2 resolution (H3 level 8). Out-of-sample predictions aggregated to the H3 level 8 grid showed good agreement with observed concentrations (Pearson r=0.64), while household-level predictions exhibited more moderate agreement (r=0.45). The model produced well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, with 24.1% of held-out observations exceeding the predicted 75th-percentile threshold. Maps of predicted radon concentrations and the probability of exceeding the U.S. EPA action level of 148 Bq/m3 (4 pCi/L) revealed substantial fine-scale spatial heterogeneity that was not apparent in conventional coarse-resolution summaries, with greater local variability observed in densely monitored urban counties than in sparsely sampled regions. High-resolution radon models that explicitly quantify uncertainty provide a useful framework for characterizing the spatial distribution of indoor radon and identifying areas of elevated exceedance risk. These findings highlight the value of fine-scale monitoring data and uncertainty-aware modeling approaches for radon exposure assessment, environmental risk characterization, and radon-related health research.

Wu, Yunhan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000178842994)

Plume Impingement Software Module for Real-Time Proximity Operations

Successfully executing proximity operations in space, such as docking or in-orbit servicing, requires sophisticated spacecraft design that accounts for induced environments. As a chaser vehicle’s attitude control thrusters fire, they create rarefied plumes that can impact the target vehicle, with the potential to overload components, exceed thermal limits, and spin the target vehicle out of control. High-fidelity simulations of the thruster plume impingement environment require the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method, but DSMC is too computationally expensive to simulate proximity operations that involve thousands of thruster firings. For this analysis to be tractable, engineering models of the plume flowfield and impingement events are used to simulate these trajectories [1]. Currently, on-orbit plume impingement environments are modeled through an inefficient open-loop analysis cycle where the vehicle’s flight controller and plume impingement teams iterate on the trajectories until they pass the target vehicle’s plume requirements. As complex on-orbit missions evolve and become more frequent, lengthy design cycles will become operational bottlenecks. To address this gap, this work develops an advanced plume impingement module capable of operating at real-time scale that can be integrated with existing mission planning tools and onboard flight systems. The plume module leverages state-of-the-art plume simulation techniques [2] to deliver fast, physics-based impingement predictions in a software architecture that can be tailored to diverse proximity operations scenarios. A prototype of this plume impingement module is built to demonstrate the feasibility of real-time performance. This prototype completes plume impingement calculations in microseconds per target geometry mesh point. The software serves as a foundational capability for plume-aware trajectory design, operational risk assessment, and future autonomous decision-making systems.

Plume Impingement

Chapter 9 - Pre-Flight Tests

Pre-flight testing is critical to the success of any flight test program. Pre-flight tests are performed to measure and evaluate the characteristics of an aircraft in a non-flying environment and to verify that these characteristics are as desired. Since aircraft systems are becoming more and more complex, conducting proper pre-flight testing to help identify system characteristics and deficiencies prior to flight is more important now than ever before. Much flight test time has been lost fixing problems that should have been found and corrected prior to flight. Accidents have occurred because pre-flight tests and verification procedures were not conducted thoroughly enough to identify the aircraft's characteristics properly or to find system discrepancies. Proper pre-flight testing helps ensure that the aircraft is ready to fly and contributes toward an efficient, productive, and safe flight test program. The reader should be aware that this Section is dedicated to the testing that should take place prior to the first flight. There are other "pre-flight" tests that take place prior to each individual flight. These latter tests are not discussed in this Section. The following paragraphs of this Section describe significant tests that are usually accomplished prior to flying a new or highly modified aircraft. Test objectives, descriptions, products, and requirements are provided in the following subsections: 9.1 Wind tunnel tests 9.2 Simulation tests 9.3 Propulsion tests 9.4 Weight and balance tests 9.5 Ground vibration tests 9.6 Structural loads tests 9.7 Gain margin tests 9.8 Verification and calibration tests 9.9 Taxi tests The specific examples given and the test facilities mentioned in this Section will illustrate the approach taken and the techniques used by the US Air Force; however, they are typical of those used by other test organizations.

Paul W Kirsten

The Operational NASA Anomaly Gas Analyzer and Exploration Follow-Ons

The NASA Anomaly Gas Analyzer (AGA) is the culmination of nearly ten years of advancement of core technology originally developed by Vista Photonics through the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program and expanded using NASA program funding. The AGA is a portable, battery operated, optical gas detection instrument for continuous monitoring of H 2 O, CO 2 , O 2 , CO, NH 3 , HCN, HF, HCl in the spacecraft environment. Real time, in-situ monitored, gas concentrations are communicated at 1 Hz through a built-in display on-orbit and additionally through a serial interface on the ground. The instruments function over the typical range of temperatures and pressures required for the spacecraft environment. A ten-year operational life is targeted. Seven AGA instruments are currently deployed on the International Space Station and two Orion-specific units are manifested for Artemis 2. A variation of the operational AGA is under development for lunar Human Landing Systems. A wider calibrated operating pressure envelope is required in this application. Otherwise, the instruments straightforwardly address lessons learned from the original AGA by improving aspects of thermal control, ruggedness, and ease-of-use. A subset of AGA-developed sensed gases (H 2 O, CO 2 , O 2 ) is the subject of the Primary Constituent Monitor (PCM) development for the Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO) destined for lunar orbit. Two PCMs will be installed in HALO as part of the environmental control loop where they will interface with vehicle power and communications. While the basic sensor techniques are unchanged from the AGA, these instruments have been radiation hardened to survive for many years in the harsh target environment. Current development status for these instruments will be presented along with recent developments of a naval submarine variant.

ECLSS

Prioritizing Uncertainties in Hydrogen Contribution to Risk in Post-Crash Outcomes for Rail

This report presents analysis from Sandia National Laboratories predicting contributions to risk associated with the use of hydrogen technology for rail. Event sequence diagrams are used to describe possible accident scenarios and progressions. Initiating event frequencies and branch event probabilities for each scenario are quantified with uncertainty using distributions fit to Federal Railroad Administration and U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration data on applicable accidents from 2000 to 2020. Uncertainty is propagated through the event sequence diagram to estimate the frequency and conditional probability of accident end states. The analysis identifies four scenarios with significant contributions to risk from hydrogen that are predicted to occur relatively frequently, which may inform priorities for reducing uncertainty. These scenarios are 1) overpressure events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and delayed ignition, 2) jet fire events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and immediate ignition, 3) jet fires resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and correct operation of the thermally-activated pressure relief device (TPRD) subsequent to the thermal insult, and 4) pressure burst resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and failure of the TPRD. Delayed and immediate hydrogen ignition probabilities are identified as being highly uncertain and potential candidates for reducing conservatism in the predicted frequencies for these two scenarios.

08 HYDROGEN