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At least 919 records · Page 51

Age-related decrements in bone mineral density in women over 65

Age-related changes in bone density contribute to the risk of fractures. To describe the relationship between age and bone mass in elderly women, we studied a large cohort of women over age 65 years who were recruited from population-based lists in four cities in the United States. Bone density in g/cm2 was measured by single-photon absorptiometry (SPA) and dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) at the distal and proximal radius, the calcaneus, the lumbar spine, and the proximal femur. Centralized data collection was used to control data quality and consistency. We found a strong inverse relationship between bone density and age for most sites. Decrements in bone density between women aged 65-69 years and women 85 years and older exceeded 16% in all regions except the spine, where the difference between the two age groups was 6%. Ward's triangle and the calcaneus exhibited the largest decrements, with 26 and 21%, respectively. The estimates of annual changes in bone mineral density by linear regression at sites other than the spine ranged from -0.82% at the femoral neck and trochanter to -1.30% at Ward's triangle. Correlations between the different regions ranged from r = 0.51 between the proximal radius and Ward's triangle to r = 0.66 between the distal radius and calcaneus. We conclude that the inverse relationship between age and bone mass measured by absorptiometry techniques in white women continues into the ninth decade of life. The relationship is strongest for bone density of Ward's triangle and the calcaneus and weakest for the spine.

NASA Discipline Musculoskeletal↗

Uncertainties in Estimates of the Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation

The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, and non-cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a Maximum Likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objective's, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

Factors associated with serum thyroglobulin in a Ukrainian cohort exposed to iodine-131 from the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Plant

Background: Serum thyroglobulin (Tg) is associated with the presence of thyroid disease and has been proposed as a biomarker of iodine status. Few studies have examined factors related to serum Tg in populations environmentally exposed to ionizing radiation and living in regions with endemic mild-to-moderate iodine deficiency. Methods: We screened 10,430 individuals who were living in Ukraine and under 18 years of age at the time of the 1986 Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident for thyroid disease from 2001 to 2003. We estimated the percent change (PC) in serum Tg associated with demographic factors, iodine-131 thyroid dose, and indicators of thyroid structure and function using linear regression. We also examined these relationships for individuals with and without indications of thyroid abnormality. Results: Mean and median serum Tg levels were higher among participants with abnormal thyroid structure/function. Percent change in serum Tg increased among females, smokers and with older age (p-values<0.001), and Tg increased with increasing thyroid volume, and serum thyrotropin (p-values for trend<0.001). We found no evidence of significant associations between iodine-131 thyroid dose and Tg. Serum Tg levels were inversely associated with iodized salt intake (PC=−7.90, 95% confidence interval: −12.08, −3.52), and over the range of urinary iodine concentration, the odds of having elevated serum Tg showed a U-shaped curve with elevated Tg at low and high urinary iodine concentrations. Conclusion: Serum Tg may be a useful indicator of population iodine status and a non-specific biomarker of structural and functional thyroid abnormalities in epidemiological studies. - Highlights: • We evaluated serum thyroglobulin (Tg) in 10,430 irradiated, mostly iodine deficient Ukrainians. • Tg levels were higher among subjects with abnormal thyroid structure/function. • Increased Tg was associated with increasing age, thyroid volume and thyrotropin levels. • The odds of elevated Tg showed a U-shaped curve over categories of dietary iodine status. • Serum Tg is a useful indicator of population iodine status and thyroid abnormalities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How long were older people expected to live with or without sarcopenia? Multistate modeling of a national cohort study

Objectives Sarcopenia is well known to be associated with mortality, but there is a lack of evidence on the estimates of life expectancy (LE) for sarcopenia in China. This study aims to estimate total life expectancy (TLE) and sarcopenia-specific LE in community-dwelling older Chinese adults with and without sarcopenia. Methods This study included participants aged 60 years and older who enrolled in the cohort in 2011 and 2013 and at least completed one follow-up until 2015 as part of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). The criteria for defining sarcopenia were based on the guidelines established by the Asian Working Group on Sarcopenia in 2019. TLE and sarcopenia-specific LE were estimated for the total population and subgroups using continuous-time multistate modeling. Results A total of 6,029 participants (49.2% women) with an average age of 68.4 (SD: 6.56) years were included in the study. The baseline prevalence of sarcopenia and possible sarcopenia was 19.5 and 44.9%, respectively. We observed that sarcopenia stages naturally deteriorated to worse stages (including death, by 24.4%) and returned to better stages (17.1%) during a median follow-up of 3.92 years (IQR: 2.00 ~ 4.00). The average TLE at the age of 60 was 20.9 [95% CI: 20.2–21.5] years (22.1 [95% CI: 19.6–24.6] for non-sarcopenic older adults, 20.9 [95% CI: 19.5–22.3] for possible sarcopenic, and 18.7 [95% CI: 16.4–21.1] for sarcopenic). Men, former and current smokers, and those living in northwest China had less TLE. Sarcopenic older adults, those with lower education, those who are unmarried, those with agriculture hukou, and those living in rural and northwest China were expected to live fewer years with non-sarcopenia. Sarcopenic older people, men, those with agriculture hukou, and those living in rural and southwest China were expected to live more years with sarcopenia. Discussion The results improved our understanding of the relationship between sarcopenia and life expectancy. We suggested that targeted strategies should be considered in high-risk populations and underdeveloped regions to prevent sarcopenia and improve non-sarcopenic life years for the older population.

Ye, Bo↗

Risk assessment based on urinary bisphenol A levels in the general Korean population

Bisphenol A (BPA) is a high-volume industrial chemical used in the global production of polycarbonate plastics and epoxy resins, which are used in food and drink containers, such as tableware (plates and mugs). Due to its broad applications, BPA has been detected in human blood, urine and breast milk as well as environmental substances, including water, indoor and outdoor air, and dust. Indeed, exposure to high concentrations of BPA can result in a variety of harmful effects, including reproductive toxicity, through a mechanism of endocrine disruption. Our comparison of reported BPA urinary concentrations among different countries revealed that exposures in Korea may be higher than those in other Asian countries and North America, but lower than or similar to those in European countries. The current study included a total of 2044 eligible subjects of all ages. The subjects were evenly divided between males and females (48.58% and 51.42%, respectively). The geometric mean (GM) of pre-adjusted (adjusted) urinary BPA concentrations was 1.83 μg/L (2.01 μg/g creatinine) for subjects of all ages, and there was no statistically difference in BPA concentrations between males (1.90 μg/L, 1.87 μg/g creatinine) and females (1.76 μg/L, 2.16 μg/g creatinine). Multiple regression analysis revealed only one positive association between creatinine pre-adjusted urinary BPA concentration and age (β=−0.0868, p<0.001). The 95th percentile levels of 24-hour recall (HR), food frequency questionnaires (FFQ) and estimated daily intake (EDI) through urinary BPA concentrations were 0.14, 0.13, and 0.22 μg/kg bw/day, respectively. According to the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety (MFDS), a tolerable daily intake (tDI) of 20 μg/kg bw/day was established for BPA from the available toxicological data. Recently, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) established a temporary TDI of 4 μg/kg bw/day based on current toxicological data. By comparing these TDIs with subjects' exposure, we conclude that there are no health concerns for any age group as a result of current levels of dietary exposure to BPA. - Highlights: • We compared urinary bisphenol A (BPA) levels among different countries. • We evaluated the urinary BPA levels of the general Korean population. • We found that the overall GM of urinary BPA concentration was 1.83 μg/L. • We derived a TDI of 20 μg/kg bw/day for BPA. • There is no health concern for any age group from current levels of exposure to BPA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Efficacy Endpoints of Radiation Therapy Group Protocol 0247: A Randomized, Phase 2 Study of Neoadjuvant Radiation Therapy Plus Concurrent Capecitabine and Irinotecan or Capecitabine and Oxaliplatin for Patients With Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

Purpose: To report secondary efficacy endpoints of Radiation Therapy Oncology Group protocol 0247, primary endpoint analysis of which demonstrated that preoperative radiation therapy (RT) with capecitabine plus oxaliplatin achieved a pathologic complete remission prespecified threshold (21%) to merit further study, whereas RT with capecitabine plus irinotecan did not (10%). Methods and Materials: A randomized, phase 2 trial evaluated preoperative RT (50.4 Gy in 1.8-Gy fractions) with 2 concurrent chemotherapy regimens: (1) capecitabine (1200 mg/m{sup 2}/d Monday-Friday) plus irinotecan (50 mg/m{sup 2}/wk × 4); and (2) capecitabine (1650 mg/m{sup 2}/d Monday-Friday) plus oxaliplatin (50 mg/m{sup 2}/wk × 5) for clinical T3 or T4 rectal cancer. Surgery was performed 4 to 8 weeks after chemoradiation, then 4 to 6 weeks later, adjuvant chemotherapy (oxaliplatin 85 mg/m{sup 2}; leucovorin 400 mg/m{sup 2}; 5-fluorouracil 400 mg/m{sup 2}; 5-fluorouracil 2400 mg/m{sup 2}) every 2 weeks × 9. Disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were estimated univariately by the Kaplan-Meier method. Local–regional failure (LRF), distant failure (DF), and second primary failure (SP) were estimated by the cumulative incidence method. No statistical comparisons were made between arms because each was evaluated individually. Results: A total of 104 patients (median age, 57 years) were treated; characteristics were similar for both arms. Median follow-up for RT with capecitabine/irinotecan arm was 3.77 years and for RT with capecitabine/oxaliplatin arm was 3.97 years. Four-year DFS, OS, LRF, DF, and SP estimates for capecitabine/irinotecan arm were 68%, 85%, 16%, 24%, and 2%, respectively. The 4-year DFS, OS, LRF, DF, and SP failure estimates for capecitabine/oxaliplatin arm were 62%, 75%, 18%, 30%, and 6%, respectively. Conclusions: Efficacy results for both arms are similar to other reported studies but suggest that pathologic complete remission is an unsuitable surrogate for traditional survival metrics of clinical outcome. Although it remains uncertain whether the addition of a second cytotoxic agent enhances the effectiveness of fluorouracil plus RT, these results suggest that further study of irinotecan may be warranted.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Critical Combinations of Radiation Dose and Volume Predict Intelligence Quotient and Academic Achievement Scores After Craniospinal Irradiation in Children With Medulloblastoma

Purpose: To prospectively follow children treated with craniospinal irradiation to determine critical combinations of radiation dose and volume that would predict for cognitive effects. Methods and Materials: Between 1996 and 2003, 58 patients (median age 8.14 years, range 3.99-20.11 years) with medulloblastoma received risk-adapted craniospinal irradiation followed by dose-intense chemotherapy and were followed longitudinally with multiple cognitive evaluations (through 5 years after treatment) that included intelligence quotient (estimated intelligence quotient, full-scale, verbal, and performance) and academic achievement (math, reading, spelling) tests. Craniospinal irradiation consisted of 23.4 Gy for average-risk patients (nonmetastatic) and 36-39.6 Gy for high-risk patients (metastatic or residual disease >1.5 cm{sup 2}). The primary site was treated using conformal or intensity modulated radiation therapy using a 2-cm clinical target volume margin. The effect of clinical variables and radiation dose to different brain volumes were modeled to estimate cognitive scores after treatment. Results: A decline with time for all test scores was observed for the entire cohort. Sex, race, and cerebrospinal fluid shunt status had a significant impact on baseline scores. Age and mean radiation dose to specific brain volumes, including the temporal lobes and hippocampi, had a significant impact on longitudinal scores. Dichotomized dose distributions at 25 Gy, 35 Gy, 45 Gy, and 55 Gy were modeled to show the impact of the high-dose volume on longitudinal test scores. The 50% risk of a below-normal cognitive test score was calculated according to mean dose and dose intervals between 25 Gy and 55 Gy at 10-Gy increments according to brain volume and age. Conclusions: The ability to predict cognitive outcomes in children with medulloblastoma using dose-effects models for different brain subvolumes will improve treatment planning, guide intervention, and help estimate the value of newer methods of irradiation.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Estimating release of carbon from 1990 and 1991 forest fires in Alaska

An improved method to estimate the amounts of carbon released during fires in the boreal forest zone of Alaska in 1990 and 1991 is described. This method divides the state into 64 distinct physiographic regions and estimates areal extent of five different land covers: two forest types, peat land, tundra, and nonvegetated. The areal extent of each cover type was estimated from a review of topographic maps of each region and observations on the distribution of foreat types within the state. Using previous observations and theoretical models for the two forest types found in interior Alaska, models of biomass accumulation as a function of stand age were developed. Stand age distributions for each region were determined using a statistical distribution based on fire frequency, which was from available long-term historical records. Estimates of the degree of biomass combusted were based on recent field observations as well as research reported in the literature. The location and areal extent of fires in this region for 1990 and 1991 were based on both field observations and analysis of satellite (advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR)) data sets. Estimates of average carbon release for the two study years ranged between 2.54 and 3.00 kg/sq m, which are 2.2 to 2.6 times greater than estimates used in other studies of carbon release through biomass burning in boreal forests. Total average annual carbon release for the two years ranged between 0.012 and 0.018 Pg C/yr, with the lower value resulting from the AVHRR estimates of fire location and area.

Kaisischke, Eric S.↗

Longevity of geo-synthetic cover components - 15450

Geo-synthetics form many of the key components in modern landfill cell and final cover designs. Models for the long-term performance assessment of systems incorporating these components have traditionally relied on a small number of standard assumptions originally developed to address the needs of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Subtitle D solid waste industry. These past estimates demonstrated that, even under a series of highly conservative factors, the longevity of these components far exceeds the requirements for typical solid waste facilities. Traditionally, the interpretation of the geo-synthetic degradation research has been deterministic as opposed to probabilistic, often due to the relative scarcity of degradation data for particular formulations and environmental conditions. Long-term studies of the mechanical and chemical properties of geo-synthetics subjected to accelerated aging processes have been conducted in an attempt to better quantify their longevity to address applications where performance may be required for 1,000 years or more. Of the many cover system geo-synthetic components, geo-membranes appear to have the most significant impact on the long-term performance of cover systems. Based on available long-term aging studies, a series of property degradation curves and their corresponding model parameters are available for geo-membranes. A strong area of need in the performance assessment of shallow disposal facilities is how to connect these research findings with inputs to probabilistic models. Significantly, factors affecting geo-membrane performance, such as geo-membrane thickness, anti-oxidant package, molecular weight, oxygen exposure, and drainage, can be adjusted and re-engineered using a proposed approach to meet specific performance targets. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Simulation of Impedance Changes with Aging in Lithium Titanate-based Cells Using Physics-Based Dimensionless Modeling

Quantifying aging effects in lithium-ion cells with chemistries that have a flat open circuit potential is challenging. We implement a physics-based electrochemical model to track changes in the electrochemical impedance response of lithium titanate-based cells. Frequency domain equations of a pseudo two-dimensional model are made dimensionless, and the corresponding non-dimensional parameters are estimated using a Levenberg-Marquardt routine. The model weighs the relative contributions of changes in diffusion, ionic conduction within the electrolyte phase against solid phase electronic conduction towards cell aging. Solid-phase diffusion, charge transfer resistance and double layer capacitance at the solid-liquid interface are accounted for in the particle impedance. The estimation routine tracks dimensionless parameters using accelerated cycling data from full cells over 1000 cycles. The model can be deployed within a short time for state estimation using physics-based models without requiring prior knowledge of the battery chemistry, format, or capacity.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

4.32 Billion Year Old Impact Melts at Apollo 14: Dating the Procellarum Basin?

Introduction: Recent work has improved our understanding of lunar crustal structure and basin evolution on the Moon, but its early impact history and implications for solar system dynamics remain poorly established [1,2]. In particular, there is a derth of absolute ages, especially for the period >4.0 Ga, that could be related to basin-forming events. Here we present U-Pb isotopic data for Zr-rich minerals found in impact-melt fragments from Apollo 14 soil sample 14163 that, when combined with previously published data, dates an impact event at 4324±15 Ma. The compositions and ages of these impact-melt fragments provide unique information about the timing of early impact events and the composition of the lunar crust. Results: Fourteen rocklets ranging in size from 1 to 3 mm were extracted from soil 14163. Most are impactmelt rocks with 10-30% clasts of mostly pyroxene and plagioclase (100 to 500 μm) in a crystalline matrix. Textures of the matrix vary from subophitic, formed by intergrowths of 10-20 μm plagioclase and pyroxene crystals, to poikilitic, with plagioclase and pyroxene reaching 20-50 μm size. Some fragments that contain no visible clasts have similar textures are also interpreted as impact-melt rocks. All fragments contain notably large proportions of euhedral to subhedral ilmenite, zircon, apatite/merrillite and less abundant zirconolite and baddeleyite in the melt matrices. These grains often form intricate intergrowths with each other and rock-forming minerals, indicating their crystallization from the melt (Fig. 1). However, some slightly larger (~50 μm) zircon and phosphate grains can be interpreted as relict clasts based on their granular textures and relationships with the surrounding phases (Fig. 1). This implies that zircon and phosphate minerals were present in the target rocks. Some of these grains were profoundly remelted during the impact, which resulted in an oversaturation of the melt in Zr and P and crystallization of new grains of Zrrich minerals and phosphates during melt solidification. The presence of zircon and phosphates indicates that the melts were significantly enriched in KREEP components and ties their provenance to the Procellarum- KREEP Terrane (PKT) [3]. Combined U-Pb zircon data obtained for all fragments form two main clusters on a concordia diagram (Fig. 2), between about 4.3 and 3.9 Ga. Phosphate data mostly concentrate on the younger end of this age range but some analyses are almost as old as the older zircon grains (Fig. 2). Figure 1: Zircon (Zr) and phosphate (Apt; Mer) grains in impact melt fragments from Apollo 14 soil 14161. A-zircon grains crystallized from impact melt; B-phosphate grain inherited from the target; C- granular zircon grains Our interpretation of these data is that all U-rich minerals experienced variable resetting of the U-Pb system, with phosphate, where closure temperature is significantly lower than that in zircon, affected more profoundly by Pb loss than zircon. Our best estimate of the time of formation of zircon and phosphate is based on statistically valid analysis of grains interpreted texturally as grown from the impact melt (Fig. 2). Ten of these analyses define an age of 4324±15 Ma (MSWD=3.0, probability of fit P=0.002). Our best estimate for the time of resetting is obtained by combining data from phosphates that are statistically indistinguishable from 3.9 Ga within the analytical uncertainties. This group is represented by 18 analyses of 15 phosphate grains from different fragments (Fig. 2) and defines an age of 3922±6 Ma (MSWD=1.2, P=0.23). Conversely, a minimum age of the target lithologies, remelted in the impact that produced the rocklets studied here (Fig. 2), can be determined from the five oldest analyses of zircon clasts at 4338±13 Ma (MSWD=1.5, P=0.2), which is indistinguishable from the age of the impact melt within the uncertainties. The obtained ages, combined with textural evidence, imply that the impact melt was formed at 4324±15 Ma, and that it occurred in a zircon-rich target with a minimum age of 4338±13 Ma. Further reworking occurred during a second impact event at 3922±6 Ma. Discussion: The younger age of 3922±6 Ma can be interpreted as the time of the Imbrium impact. The older age of 4324±15 Ma would then be the time of formation of the impact melt, which was then caught in the Imbrium ejecta either at the Apollo 14 landing site or within the target rocks of the Imbrium impact. The presence of abundant accessory phases such as zircons and phosphates is consistent with a substantial KREEP component in the analyzed particles. The current distribution of KREEP on the lunar surface appears to be strongly influenced by Imbrum ejecta [4] so interpretation of the 4.32 Ga age depends in part on assumed structure of the pre-impact crust and distribution of KREEP within the crust. If KREEP was present only in the deep crust at 4.32 Ga, then a basin-scale impact possibly analogous to Imbrium or larger may be necessary to excavate a KREEPy impact melt at this time. However, if KREEPy materials were present closer to the surface perhaps due to redistribution related to Mg-suite magmatism, then smaller impacts might be able to rework KREEPy compositions at shallower depths. The coherence of the data on the particles analysed here suggests a large volume of melt that has been preserved since 4.32 Ga, consistent with a large impact event. Relict zircons and mineral clasts suggests that the igneous crust in the vicinity of this impact was well developed by at least 4.34 Ga, similar to the model age of KREEP and older than the isochron ages of many Mg-suite cumulates [5]. A problem that confronts all lunar sample studies using the current collection is that the pre-Imbrium geology of the PKT (the source of these 4.32 Ga impact melts) is not well constrained. The South Pole-Aitken basin contains regions that are moderately enriched in Th, but its ejecta is Th-poor [6]; therefore these A14 fragments are probably not SPA ejecta. Alternatively, these fragments may represent formation of a hypothesized Procellarum basin [7] although the lack of a clearly defined basin ejecta signature is a potential problem with that interpretation. In any case, they provide a younger limit on the age of lunar differentiation and formation of KREEP within the lunar crust. Figure 2: U-Pb data for zircon and phosphate grains from impact melt fragments. A-all data; B-data used for age calculations. References: [1] Orgel C., Michael G., Fassett C. I., van der Bogert C. H., Riedel C., Kneissl T., and Hiesinger H. (2018) J. Geophys. Res. Planets 123, 748- 762. [2] Evans A. J., Andrews-Hanna J. C., Head J. W., Soderblom J. M., Solomon S. C., and Zuber M. T. (2018) J. Geophys. Planets. 123, 1596-1617. [3] Jolliff, B.L., Gillis, J.J., Haskin, L.A., Korotev, R.L. and Wieczorek, M.A. (2000) J. Geophys. Res: Planets 105, 4197-4216. [4] Haskin L. A. (1998) J. Geophys. Res. Planets 103, 1679-1689. [5] Borg L.E., Gaffney A.M., and Shearer C.K. (2015) MAPS 50, 715-732. [6] Moriarty, D.P., Watkins, R.N., Valencia, S.N., Kendall, J.D., Evans, A.J., Dygert, N. and Petro, N.E. (2021) J. Geophys. Res. Planets 126. [7] Zhu, M.H., Wünnemann, K., Potter, R.W., Kleine, T. and Morbidelli, A. (2019) J. Geophys. Res: Planets 124, 2117-2140

M D Norman↗

Space Radiation Cancer Risks

Space radiation presents major challenges to astronauts on the International Space Station and for future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Methods used to project risks on Earth need to be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting cancer risks from space radiation, and thus impact safety factors. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts: The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in the radiation cancer projection model. NASA s acceptable level of risk for ISS and their new lunar program have been set at the point-estimate of a 3-percent risk of exposure induced death (REID). Tissue-averaged organ dose-equivalents are combined with age at exposure and gender-dependent risk coefficients to project the cumulative occupational radiation risks incurred by astronauts. The 95% CL criteria in practice is a stronger criterion than ALARA, but not an absolute cut-off as is applied to a point projection of a 3% REID. We describe the most recent astronaut dose limits, and present a historical review of astronaut organ doses estimates from the Mercury through the current ISS program, and future projections for lunar and Mars missions. NASA s 95% CL criteria is linked to a vibrant ground based radiobiology program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and heavy ions. The near-term goal of research is new knowledge leading to the reduction of uncertainties in projection models. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. The current model for projecting space radiation cancer risk relies on the three assumptions of linearity, additivity, and scaling along with the use of population averages. We describe uncertainty estimates for this model, and new experimental data that sheds light on the accuracy of the underlying assumptions. These methods make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including lunar station, deep space outpost, and a Mars mission. Factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties and application of this approach to assess candidate mitigation approaches are described.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

Percutaneous Cryoablation of Stage T1b Renal Cell Carcinoma: Safety, Technical Results, and Clinical Outcomes

Purpose: The use of percutaneous cryoablation for T1b (4.1–7.0 cm) renal cell carcinoma, has not yet been widely adopted. The purpose of this study was to describe our experience in the cryoablation of stage T1b tumors with an emphasis on safety, technical results, and clinical outcomes. Materials and Methods: A retrospective review of hospital records identified 37 patients who underwent cryoablation for T1b lesions from 2008 to 2018. Patient demographics, comorbidities, tumor characteristics, technical parameters, and outcomes were recorded and analyzed. Recurrence-free, overall, and cancer-specific survival rates were estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method. Results: Thirty-seven patients (22 males, 15 females; mean age 66.5 ± 11.3) with 37 T1b tumors (mean diameter 47.3 ± 6.3 mm) were included. A median of 3 probes were used (range: 1–7). Angio-embolization was used in 3/37 (8.1%) and 2/37 patients (5.4%) required hydrodissection. The mean number of total cryoablation procedures for each patient was 1.5 (median 1; range: 1–4). Technical success was achieved in 88.2% of patients. Recurrence-free survival was 96.5%, 86.1%, and 62.6% at 1, 2, and 3 years respectively. Cancer-specific survival was 100% at 1, 2, and 3 years respectively. Overall survival was 96.7%, 91.8%, and 77.6% at 1, 2, and 3 years respectively. Complications classified as CIRSE grade 2 or higher occurred in 6/37 (16.2%) patients. Conclusion: T1b cryoablation is associated with high rates of technical success, excellent cancer-specific survival, and an acceptable safety profile. Level of Evidence: Level 4, Case Series.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Geothermal play fairway analysis, part 1: Example from the Snake River Plain, Idaho

The Snake River Plain (SRP) volcanic province overlies the track of the Yellowstone hotspot, a thermal anomaly that extends deep into the mantle. Most of the area is underlain by a basaltic volcanic province that overlies a mid-crustal intrusive complex, which in turn provides the long-term heat flux needed to sustain geothermal systems. Previous studies have identified several known geothermal resource areas within the SRP. For the geothermal study presented herein, our goals were to: (1) adapt the methodology of Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) for geothermal exploration to create a formal basis for its application to geothermal systems, (2) assemble relevant data for the SRP from publicly available and private sources, and (3) build a geothermal PFA model for the SRP and identify the most promising plays, using GIS-based software tools that are standard in the petroleum industry. The study focused on identifying three critical resource parameters for exploitable hydrothermal systems in the SRP: heat source, reservoir and recharge permeability, and cap or seal. Data included in the compilation for heat source were heat flow, distribution and ages of volcanic vents, groundwater temperatures, thermal springs and wells, helium isotope anomalies, and reservoir temperatures estimated using geothermometry. Reservoir and recharge permeability was inferred from the analysis of stress orientations and magnitudes, post-Miocene faults, and subsurface structural lineaments based on magnetics and gravity data. Data for cap or seal included the distribution of impermeable lake sediments and clay-seal associated with hydrothermal alteration below the regional aquifer. These data were used to compile Common Risk Segment maps for heat, permeability, and seal, which were combined to create a Composite Common Risk Segment map for all southern Idaho that reflects the risk associated with geothermal resource exploration and identifies favorable resource tracks. Our regional assessment indicated that undiscovered geothermal resources may be located in several areas of the SRP. Two of these areas, the western SRP and Camas Prairie, were selected for more detailed assessment, during which heat, permeability, and seal were evaluated using newly collected field data and smaller grid parameters to refine the location of potential resources. These higher resolution assessments illustrate the flexibility of our approach over a range of scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Geological study of an outburst flood event in the upper Yangtze River and risk of similar extreme events

Here, outburst flood sediments are studied on the upper course of the Yangtze River (known as the Jinsha River) where is a key region for the development of hydroelectric power. As the history and magnitude of outburst flooding in this stretch of the Jinsha River during historic times has remained largely undocumented, we have endeavored as part of this study to conduct field investigations into, and provide numerical dating (using OSL and 14 C dating techniques) of outburst flood evidence found in the First Bend area of the Yangtze River. Carbonized nutshells and charcoal from the ancient settlement yielded 14 C ages that precisely pinpointed an outburst flood event ~1200–1300 cal yr BP, during China's Tang Dynasty (618–907 CE). However, OSL ages using the minimum age model for all outburst flood samples ranged from 9.1 to 1.8 ka, which was ~0.5–7.8 ka older than the 14 C-dated outburst flood. This discrepancy suggests a potential overestimation of quartz age when dating outburst flood sediments from the Holocene period. Furthermore, using 2D hydraulic modeling, we estimated the magnitude of the aforementioned outburst flood, revealing a reconstructed peak flow discharge of 51,000–55,300 m 3 /s. This discharge was three times greater than the 10,000-year flood for the hydroelectric power station nearest to the study area. Our study underscores the significant role of combining archaeological and geological evidence in enhancing paleoflood hydrology research. Through a multidisciplinary approach, our findings emphasize the importance of paleoflood hydrology studies in comprehending both the latent and catastrophic flood risks in alpine mountain areas amid the context of global warming.

14C dating↗

Prospective Study of Hippocampal-Sparing Prophylactic Cranial Irradiation in Limited-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer

Purpose: To prospectively evaluate cognitive function and intracranial failure patterns after hippocampal-sparing prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) for limited-stage small cell lung cancer (SCLC). Methods and Materials: Adults with limited-stage SCLC, achieving a complete response to chemoradiotherapy and no brain metastases, were eligible. Patients received PCI 25 Gy/10 fractions, with a mean hippocampal dose limited to <8 Gy and ≥90% of the brain receiving 90% of the prescription. A diverse battery of neuropsychological testing was performed at baseline and 6 and 12 months after PCI. Brain MRI scans were performed at baseline and 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. The primary endpoint was memory measured by the Hopkins Verbal Learning Test-Revised Delayed Recall at 6 months after PCI. The 25-Gy arm of Radiation Therapy Oncology Group protocol 0212 was used as a reference of potential efficacy. Development of intracranial metastases was recorded. Overall survival and progression-free survival were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: Eight men and 12 women with a median age of 61 years enrolled. Two-year overall survival was 88% (95% confidence interval 68%-100%). There was no significant decline in performance between baseline and 6 or 12 months for any of the tests. The association between baseline intelligence quotient and change in performance on testing was not significant. Magnetic resonance imaging revealed asymptomatic brain metastases at a cumulative rate of 20%, with no concurrent extracranial progression. Two patients developed a metastasis in the under-dosed region. Neither involved the dentate gyrus, but 1 involved the avoidance region. Both patients concurrently developed additional metastasis in fully treated brain regions. There were 2 neurologic deaths. Conclusions: This prospective study suggests a potential benefit of hippocampal sparing in limiting the neuropsychological sequelae of brain radiation, but with a risk of failures in the spared region. These data strongly support continued enrollment on ongoing cooperative group randomized trials. Clinical Trials registration number: (NCT01797159).

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Aerosol Composition, Mixing State, and Phase State of Free Tropospheric Particles and Their Role in Ice Cloud Formation

The prediction of ice cloud formation in the atmosphere remains challenging. Free tropospheric aerosols can act as ice nucleating particles (INPs), affecting cloud properties and precipitation. The physicochemical properties of free tropospheric particles are modified upon long-range transport by different atmospheric processes. These modifications affect the ice formation potential of individual particles. We investigated free tropospheric particles collected at the remote Pico Mountain Observatory at 2225m a.s.l. in the North Atlantic Ocean using multimodal microspectroscopy and chemical imaging techniques. We probed their ice nucleation activity using an ice nucleation stage interfaced with an environmental scanning electron microscope. Retroplume analysis, chemical imaging, and micro-spectroscopy analysis indicated that the size-resolved chemical composition, mixing state, and phase state of the articles with similar aging times but different transport patterns were substantially different. Relative humidity-dependent glass transition temperatures estimated from meteorological conditions were consistent with the observed organic component of the particles' phase. More viscous (solid and semi-solid-like) particles are more ice active in deposition mode at temperature ranging from 205-220 K than those less viscous particles. Finally, this study provides a better understanding of the phase and mixing state of long range transported free tropospheric aerosols and their role in ice cloud formation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterization and Modeling of Contamination for Lyman Break Galaxy Samples at High Redshift

The selection of high-redshift sources from broadband photometry using the Lyman-break galaxy (LBG) technique is a well established methodology, but the characterization of its contamination for the faintest sources is still incomplete. We use the optical and near-IR data from four (ultra)deep Hubble Space Telescope legacy fields to investigate the contamination fraction of LBG samples at z∼5--8 selected using a color–color method. Our approach is based on characterizing the number count distribution of interloper sources, that is, galaxies with colors similar to those of LBGs, but showing detection at wavelengths shorter than the spectral break. Without sufficient sensitivity at bluer wavelengths, a subset of interlopers may not be properly classified, and contaminate the LBG selection. The surface density of interlopers in the sky gets steeper with increasing redshift of LBG selections. Since the intrinsic number of dropouts decreases significantly with increasing redshift, this implies increasing contamination from misclassified interlopers with increasing redshift, primarily by intermediate redshift sources with unremarkable properties (intermediate ages, lack of ongoing star formation and low/moderate dust content). Using Monte-Carlo simulations, we estimate that the CANDELS deep data have contamination induced by photometric scatter increasing from ∼2% at z∼5 to ∼6% at z∼8 for a typical dropout color ⩾1 mag, with contamination naturally decreasing for a more stringent dropout selection. Contaminants are expected to be located preferentially near the detection limit of surveys, ranging from 0.1 to 0.4 contaminants per arcmin{sup 2} at J{sub 125} = 30, depending on the field considered. This analysis suggests that the impact of contamination in future studies of z>10 galaxies needs to be carefully considered.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗