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At least 919 records · Page 51

A Systematic Framework for Projecting the Future Cost of Offshore Wind Energy

Offshore wind costs are expected to decline rapidly in the short and medium term future as the industry grows and gains experience in manufacturing, installing, and operating commercial scale projects. Estimating the future costs of offshore wind energy is critical for evaluating the technology's economic performance, how it can fit into a broader clean energy economy, and how R&D investment can be allocated to advance the technology. We present a newly developed approach for forecasting these costs which focuses on an empirically-derived learning rate for capital costs and prescribed cost and performance improvements for operational costs and capacity factor. We establish baseline costs for a series of reference fixed-bottom and floating projects in 2021 and project cost trajectories to 2035, presenting both an average cost trajectory as well as describing the range of potential future costs associated with site-specific cost variations and uncertainty in the estimate of the learning rate. We also conduct sensitivity analyses showing the impact of different global deployments by 2035 and variations in the prescribed operational costs and capacity factors. The results show that fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind capital costs could decrease to around $\$$2,400/kW and $\$$3,300/kW by 2035, respectively, with ranges of $\$$2,100/kW - $\$$2,750/kW for fixed-bottom projects and $\$$2,850/kW - $\$$5,500/kW for floating projects. The levelized cost of energy of fixed-bottom and floating wind projects could decrease to $\$$53.1/MWh and $\$$63.9/MWh by 2035, with ranges of $\$$48.4/MWh - $\$$59.7/MWh for fixed-bottom projects and $\$$46.5/MWh - $\$$99.9/MWh for floating projects. By presenting the uncertainty associated with the forecast we provide a transparent description of the spectrum of potential cost trajectories for offshore wind.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

SANS coupled with fluid invasion approaches for characterization of overall nanopore structure and mesopore connectivity of organic-rich marine shales in China

The pore structure of shales, including pore morphology, connectivity, pore volume, specific surface area (SSA), and pore size distribution (PSD), is a significant factor in controlling gas storage and transport and the migration mechanisms of hydrocarbons. However, the lack of comprehensive characterization for both accessible and inaccessible pore structure increases the difficulty of gas-in-place estimation and gas exploration. In order to investigate the nanoscale pore system, integration of high-pressure mercury intrusion porosimetry (MIP), low-pressure N 2 /CO 2 adsorption (LNA/LCA), and small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) were employed to obtain a multi-scale quantitative characterization of the nanopore structure of organic-rich marine shale samples from the Longmaxi and Niutitang Formations in China. In this work, PSDs obtained from the combined techniques appropriately cover an overall nanopore size range of shale (0.35–15,000 nm) and overcome the limits of the individual method. Uni-, bi, and multi-modal PSDs were observed, but the sizes of a significant portion of the nanopores observed in these shales range from 0.35 to 100 nm. Pore volumes and surface areas of micropores (<2 nm), mesopores (2–50 nm), and macropores (>50 nm) were characterized based on the best performance window of each technique: LCA for micropores; LNA and SANS for mesopores; and MIP for macropores. It was found that micropores are the major contributor to the total SSA for both the Longmaxi and Niutitang shales. With respect to pore volume, however, the contribution to the total pore volume has a trend of micropore < mesopore < macropore for the Longmaxi shale samples, but micro-/mesopore volumes are greater than macropore volumes for samples of the Niutitang shale. Strong correlations were also observed between total organic carbon (TOC) content and micropore volume and surface area, which implies that organic matter is a controlling factor in the micropore system of organic-rich shales. In addition, strong correlations between methane adsorption capacity and both micro-/mesopore volumes and SSAs indicate that micro-/mesopores are governing factors for methane storage. Furthermore, the fractions of accessible mesopore volume and surface area were quantitatively estimated by SANS and LNA. Correlation analyses suggest that the accessibility of the mesopore surface area could be an indicator for gas transport and storage in mesopores in organic matter. Thus, a shale with higher connectivity could have higher gas diffusion capability but lower gas adsorption capacity, and vice versa.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Estimation of cardiac reserve by peak power: validation and initial application of a simplified index

OBJECTIVES: To validate a simplified estimate of peak power (SPP) against true (invasively measured) peak instantaneous power (TPP), to assess the feasibility of measuring SPP during exercise and to correlate this with functional capacity. DESIGN: Development of a simplified method of measurement and observational study. SETTING: Tertiary referral centre for cardiothoracic disease. SUBJECTS: For validation of SPP with TPP, seven normal dogs and four dogs with dilated cardiomyopathy were studied. To assess feasibility and clinical significance in humans, 40 subjects were studied (26 patients; 14 normal controls). METHODS: In the animal validation study, TPP was derived from ascending aortic pressure and flow probe, and from Doppler measurements of flow. SPP, calculated using the different flow measures, was compared with peak instantaneous power under different loading conditions. For the assessment in humans, SPP was measured at rest and during maximum exercise. Peak aortic flow was measured with transthoracic continuous wave Doppler, and systolic and diastolic blood pressures were derived from brachial sphygmomanometry. The difference between exercise and rest simplified peak power (Delta SPP) was compared with maximum oxygen uptake (VO(2)max), measured from expired gas analysis. RESULTS: SPP estimates using peak flow measures correlated well with true peak instantaneous power (r = 0.89 to 0.97), despite marked changes in systemic pressure and flow induced by manipulation of loading conditions. In the human study, VO(2)max correlated with Delta SPP (r = 0.78) better than Delta ejection fraction (r = 0.18) and Delta rate-pressure product (r = 0.59). CONCLUSIONS: The simple product of mean arterial pressure and peak aortic flow (simplified peak power, SPP) correlates with peak instantaneous power over a range of loading conditions in dogs. In humans, it can be estimated during exercise echocardiography, and correlates with maximum oxygen uptake better than ejection fraction or rate-pressure product.

Non-NASA Center↗

Estimation of Airline Benefits from Avionics Upgrade under Preferential Merge Re-sequence Scheduling

Modernization of the airline fleet avionics is essential to fully enable future technologies and procedures for increasing national airspace system capacity. However in the current national airspace system, system-wide benefits gained by avionics upgrade are not fully directed to aircraft/airlines that upgrade, resulting in slow fleet modernization rate. Preferential merge re-sequence scheduling is a best-equipped-best-served concept designed to incentivize avionics upgrade among airlines by allowing aircraft with new avionics (high-equipped) to be re-sequenced ahead of aircraft without the upgrades (low-equipped) at enroute merge waypoints. The goal of this study is to investigate the potential benefits gained or lost by airlines under a high or low-equipped fleet scenario if preferential merge resequence scheduling is implemented.

air traffic management↗

Modeling Stationary Lithium-Ion Batteries for Optimization and Predictive Control

Accurately modeling stationary battery storage behavior is crucial to understand and predict its limitations in demand-side management scenarios. In this paper, a lithium-ion battery model was derived to estimate lifetime and state-of-charge for building-integrated use cases. The proposed battery model aims to balance speed and accuracy when modeling battery behavior for real-time predictive control and optimization. In order to achieve these goals, a mixed modeling approach was taken, which incorporates regression fits to experimental data and an equivalent circuit to model battery behavior. A comparison of the proposed battery model output to actual data from the manufacturer validates the modeling approach taken in the paper. Additionally, a dynamic test case demonstrates the effects of using regression models to represent internal resistance and capacity fading.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Secrecy Analysis of Uplink IM-OFDMA Systems in the Presence of IQ Imbalance

This article introduces the secrecy analysis of the index modulation-based orthogonal frequency division multiple access (IM-OFDMA) schemes by considering the in-phase and quadrature imbalance (IQI) presence at the users' RF front ends. In particular, by assuming the existence of an eavesdropper, the secrecy performance of the considered uplink multiple-access system is investigated through the strictly positive secrecy capacity and secrecy outage probability, and closed-form expressions are derived for both quantities. Moreover, the secrecy performance is conducted regarding IQI compensation based on a preamble-based estimation method. Further, analysis of the impact of the different parameters of IM-OFDMA, IQI, and estimation method is included via analytical and simulation-based results. In conclusion, the results reveal that IM-OFDMA is more reliable in secrecy performance than OFDMA, regardless of whether IQI is present. Also, IQI compensation can lead to a better secrecy performance compared to the case of no IQI.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Mycorrhizal status and host genotype interact to shape plant nutrition in field grown maize ( Zea mays ssp. mays )

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) establish symbioses with the major cereal crops, providing plants with increased access to nutrients while enhancing their tolerance to toxic heavy metals. However, not all plant varieties benefit equally from this association. In this study, we used quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping to evaluate the combined effect of host genotypic variation (G) and AMF across 141 genotypes on the concentration of 20 mineral elements in the leaves and grain of field grown maize (Zea mays spp. mays). Our mapping design included selective incorporation of a castor AMF-incompatibility mutation, allowing estimation of AMF, QTL and QTLxAMF effects by comparison of mycorrhizal and non-mycorrhizal plants. Overall, AMF compatibility was associated with higher concentrations of boron (B), copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo), phosphorus (P), selenium (Se) and zinc (Zn) and lower concentrations of arsenic (As), iron (Fe), magnesium (Mg), manganese (Mn), potassium (K) and strontium (Sr). In addition to effects on individual elements, pairwise correlation matrices for element concentration differed between mycorrhizal and non-mycorrhizal plants. We mapped 22 element QTLs, including 18 associated with QTLxAMF effects that indicate plant genotype-specific differences in the impact of AMF on the host ionome. Although there is considerable interest in AMF as biofertilizers, it remains challenging to estimate the impact of AMF in the field. Our design illustrates an effective approach for field evaluation of AMF effects. Furthermore, we demonstrate the capacity of the ionome to reveal host genotype-specific variation in the impact of AMF on plant nutrition.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Synthesis, Structure, and Complex Magnetism of MIr 2 In 8 (M = Eu, Sr)

In this paper, we report the synthesis, crystal structure, and physical properties of two new polar intermetallic compounds, EuIr 2 In 8 and SrIr 2 In 8 . Both were synthesized in good yield using In metal as a reactive flux medium, enabling the growth of large crystals for physical property measurements. They crystallize in the orthorhombic space group Pbam with the CeFe 2 Al 8 structure type, which is sometimes also referred to as the CaCo 2 Al 8 structure type. The two analogues have unit cell parameters of a = 13.847(3) Å, b = 16.118(3) Å, and c = 4.3885(9) Å for M = Eu and a = 13.847(3) Å, b = 16.113(3) Å, and c = 4.3962(9) Å for M = Sr at room temperature. SrIr 2 In 8 is a diamagnetic metal with no local magnetic moments on either the Sr or Ir sites, and the diamagnetic contribution from core electrons overwhelms the expected Pauli paramagnetism normally seen in intermetallic compounds. Magnetism in EuIr 2 In 8 is dominated by the local Eu moments, which order antiferromagnetically at 5 K in low applied fields. Increasing the field strength depresses the magnetic ordering temperature and also induces a spin reorientation at lower temperature, indicating complex competing magnetic interactions. Finally, low-temperature heat capacity measurements show a significant enhancement of the Sommerfeld coefficient in EuIr 2 In 8 relative to that in SrIr 2 In 8 , with estimated values of γ = 118(3) and 18.0(2) mJ mol –1 K –2 , respectively.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Optimal Operation of Grid-Tied Energy Storage Systems Considering Detailed Device-Level Battery Models

The current optimization-based algorithms to operate grid-tied battery energy storage systems (BESS) typically do not look much under the hood of the BESS, i.e., the device-level characteristics of the batteries. This is often due to modeling as well as optimization complexities. However, simplified models may significantly degrade the performance of BESS operation in practice. Therefore, in this article, we propose a new BESS scheduling optimization framework that accounts for features such as cell-to-cell variations in maximum capacity, charge level balance, and internal resistance. The proposed framework is in the form of tractable mixed integer linear programs. Our approach is to estimate and update the device-level battery model parameters continuously, without the need to interrupt BESS normal operation. We validate the performance compared to an offline approach, which is based on dedicated model testing and calibration. To assure accurate performance evaluation, this article also includes developing a power hardware-in-the-loop testbed that allows for flexible operation and detailed monitoring of BESS under different design scenarios.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Bishop Paiute's Residential Solar Program Phase III

The project consisted of the design, installation, inspection, interconnection and monitoring of 40 grid-tied solar electric systems, totaling up to 108 kW rated capacity, on qualified existing low-income single-family homes located within the Bishop Paiute Reservation. The systems are to provide at least 30-75% savings in displaced electricity totaling 175,000 kWh/year. After the DOE grant contract was signed, the Tribal Employment Rights Ordinance (TERO) board voted to reduce the tribal tax to work on the reservation for these low-income projects from 4% to 1%. This generous reduction was applied back into the community solar project and two additional tribal homes were added for a new total of 40 grid-tied solar electric systems, totaling up to 113 kW rated capacity (two more than originally planned) projects. Additionally, each homeowner was educated on energy efficiency and how solar works and saves them money. The estimated 75% savings on monthly electric bills brings financial relief to tribal homeowners and makes a significant difference on the reservation; giving low-income families money to spend on other essential items, while reducing their carbon footprint in this remote tribal reservation. The GRID IE program and this tribal project had a training component for tribal members to get free hands-on job training on 8 of the 40 homes. Those tribal members that came out to train with GRID IE could then be eligible for the “train to hire” portion of the program, on the remaining 32 homes. Overall, the triple impact of the Bishop Paiute Tribe Residential Solar Program Phase III—affordable energy for low-income families, on-site clean energy production, and hands-on solar installation jobs for local workers—these all help build the Tribe’s energy, economic, environmental goals and offers local self-sufficiency while supporting energy independence to the neediest on the Reservation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Assessment of Regional Interconnections to Meet Southeast Asia's Renewable Energy Targets: Phase I of the Singapore – U.S. Collaboration

This report summarizes the results of a study of long-distance subsea electrical interconnections in Southeast Asia, conducted under the first phase of the Singapore-U.S. collaboration under the Net Zero World Initiative. In Phase 1, the Net Zero World team evaluated the current state of the renewable energy landscape in Southeast Asia; developed an open-source capacity expansion model using GridPath and evaluated several future scenarios including changes in interregional transmission; explored the technical feasibility of regional subsea interconnectors; and estimated socio-economic benefits of expanded regional transmission.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

CalderaCast User Manual Version 1.0

CalderaCast is a user-friendly web-based tool for electrical-load forecast, providing stakeholders with a fully customizable decision-support framework that estimates the likely power draw from a possible future electric-vehicle (EV) charging station at a given location on a given day along an alternative fuel corridor (AFC). These EV charging profiles are accurately modeled in CalderaCast using the Caldera software framework developed by Idaho National Laboratories (INL), reflecting the realistic charging levels observed in actual charge events. This tool was developed as part of the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) program, which is quickly generating substantial interest from would-be charging station operators (CSO), large and small electric utilities, and state transportation planners, some of whom had not seriously considered EV charging previously. All these entities—with or without background in EV infrastructure—must estimate the electricity load that a proposed charging station will generate. This load forecast is critically important for a utility to properly assess the capacity of their distribution network to support the proposed station or properly size grid upgrades for potential load growth due to future EV adoption, vehicle technology improvements, or station growth. This document describes each aspect of the CalderaCast tool and provides guidance to users who are interested in utilizing the tool for their work.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Uncertainties in Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Advanced Biomass Feedstock Logistics Supply Chains in Kansas

To meet Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) cellulosic biofuel mandates, the United States will require an annual domestic supply of about 242 million Mg of biomass by 2022. To improve the feedstock logistics of lignocellulosic biofuels and access available biomass resources from areas with varying yields, commodity systems have been proposed and designed to deliver on-spec biomass feedstocks at preprocessing “depots”, which densify and stabilize the biomass prior to long-distance transport and delivery to centralized biorefineries. The harvesting, preprocessing, and logistics (HPL) of biomass commodity supply chains thus could introduce spatially variable environmental impacts into the biofuel life cycle due to needing to harvest, move, and preprocess biomass from multiple distances that have variable spatial density. This study examines the uncertainty in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of corn stover logisticsHPL within a bio-ethanol supply chain in the state of Kansas, where sustainable biomass supply varies spatially. Two scenarios were evaluated each having a different number of depots of varying capacity and location within Kansas relative to a central commodity-receiving biorefinery to test GHG emissions uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate the spatial uncertainty in the HPL gate-to-gate sequence. The results show that the transport of densified biomass introduces the highest variability and contribution to the carbon footprint of the logistics HPL supply chain (0.2-13 g CO 2 e/MJ). Moreover, depending upon the biomass availability and its spatial density and surrounding transportation infrastructure (road and rail), logistics HPL processes can increase the variability in life cycle environmental impacts for lignocellulosic biofuels. Within Kansas, life cycle GHG emissions could range from 24 to 41 g CO 2 e/MJ depending upon the location, size and number of preprocessing depots constructed. However, this range can be minimized through optimizing the siting of preprocessing depots where ample rail infrastructure exists to supply biomass commodity to a regional biorefinery supply system

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Inferred inflow forecast horizons guiding reservoir release decisions across the United States

Abstract. Medium- to long-range forecasts often guide reservoir release decisions to support water management objectives, including mitigating flood and drought risks. While there is a burgeoning field of science targeted at improving forecast products and associated decision support models, data describing how and when forecasts are applied in practice remain undeveloped. This lack of knowledge may prevent hydrological modelers from developing accurate reservoir release schemes for large-scale, distributed hydrology models that are increasingly used to assess the vulnerabilities of large regions to hydrological stress. We address this issue by estimating seasonally varying, regulated inflow forecast horizons used in the operations of more than 300 dams throughout the conterminous United States (CONUS). For each dam, we take actual forward observed inflows (perfect foresight) as a proxy for forecasted flows available to the operator and then identify for each week of the year the forward horizon that best explains the release decisions taken. Resulting “horizon curves” specify for each dam the inferred inflow forecast horizon as a function of the week of the water year. These curves are analyzed for strength of evidence for contribution of medium- to long-range forecasts in decision making. We use random forest classification to estimate that approximately 80 % of large dams and reservoirs in the US (1553±50 out of 1927 dams with at least 10 Mm3 storage capacity) adopt medium- to long-range inflow forecasts to inform release decisions during at least part of the water year. Long-range forecast horizons (more than 6 weeks ahead) are detected in the operations of reservoirs located in high-elevation regions of the western US, where snowpack information likely guides the release. A simulation exercise conducted on four key western US reservoirs indicates that forecast-informed models of reservoir operations may outperform models that neglect the horizon curve – including during flood and drought conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CO2: Adsorption on palagonite and the Martian regolith

Possible scenarios for the evolution of the Martian climate are discussed. In the interest of determining an upper limit on the absorptive capacity of the Martian regolith, researchers examined the results of Fanale and Cannon (1971, 1974) for CO2 adsorption on nontronite and basalt. There appeared to be a strong proportionality between the capacity of the absorbent and its specific surface area. A model of the Martian climate is given that allows the researchers to make some estimates of exchangeable CO2 abundances.

Zent, Aaron P.↗

Biomechanical Analysis of T2 Exercise

Crewmembers regularly perform treadmill exercise on the ISS. With the implementation of T2 on ISS, there is now the capacity to obtain ground reaction force (GRF) data GRF data combined with video motion data allows biomechanical analyses to occur that generate joint torque estimates from exercise conditions. Knowledge of how speed and load influence joint torque will provide quantitative information on which exercise prescriptions can be based. The objective is to determine the joint kinematics, ground reaction forces, and joint kinetics associated with treadmill exercise on the ISS. This study will: 1) Determine if specific exercise speed and harness load combinations are superior to others in exercise benefit; and 2) Aid in the design of exercise prescriptions that will be most beneficial in maintaining crewmember health.

DeWitt, John K.↗

Trees Outside Forests are an Underestimated Resource in a Country with Low Forest Cover

Trees outside forests (TOF) are an underrepresented resource in forest poor nations. As a result of their frequent omission from national forest resource assessments and a lack of readily available very-high-resolution remotely sensed imagery, TOF status and characterization has until now, been unknown. Here, we assess the capacity of openly available 10 m ESA Sentinel constellation satellite imagery for mapping TOF extent at the national level in Bangladesh. In addition, we estimate canopy height for TOF using a TanDEM-X DEM. We map 2,233,578 ha of TOF in Bangladesh with a mean canopy height of 7.3 m. We map 31 and 53% more TOF than existing estimates of TOF and forest, respectively. We find TOF in Bangladesh is nationally fragmented as a consequence of agricultural activity, yet is capable of maintaining connectedness between remaining stands. Now, TOF accounting is feasible at the national scale using readily available datasets, enabling the mainstream inclusion of TOF in national forest resource assessments for other countries.

Nathan Thomas↗