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NASA NTRS2005

Electric Power System Technology Options for Lunar Surface Missions

In 2004, the President announced a 'Vision for Space Exploration' that is bold and forward-thinking, yet practical and responsible. The vision explores answers to longstanding questions of importance to science and society and will develop revolutionary technologies and capabilities for the future, while maintaining good stewardship of taxpayer dollars. One crucial technology area enabling all space exploration is electric power systems. In this paper, the author evaluates surface power technology options in order to identify leading candidate technologies that will accomplish lunar design reference mission three (LDRM-3). LDRM-3 mission consists of multiple, 90-day missions to the lunar South Pole with 4-person crews starting in the year 2020. Top-level power requirements included a nominal 50 kW continuous habitat power over a 5-year lifetime with back-up or redundant emergency power provisions and a nominal 2-kW, 2-person unpressurized rover. To help direct NASA's technology investment strategy, this lunar surface power technology evaluation assessed many figures of merit including: current technology readiness levels (TRLs), potential to advance to TRL 6 by 2014, effectiveness of the technology to meet the mission requirements in the specified time, mass, stowed volume, deployed area, complexity, required special ground facilities, safety, reliability/redundancy, strength of industrial base, applicability to other LDRM-3 elements, extensibility to Mars missions, costs, and risks. For the 50-kW habitat module, dozens of nuclear, radioisotope and solar power technologies were down-selected to a nuclear fission heat source with Brayton, Stirling or thermoelectric power conversion options. Preferred energy storage technologies included lithium-ion battery and Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) Regenerative Fuel Cells (RFC). Several AC and DC power management and distribution architectures and component technologies were defined consistent with the preferred habitat power generation technology option and the overall lunar surface mission. For rover power, more than 20 technology options were down-selected to radioisotope Stirling, liquid lithium-ion battery, PEM RFC, or primary fuel cell options. The author discusses various conclusions that can be drawn from the findings of this surface power technologies evaluation.

Kerslake, Thomas W.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Critical Propulsion Components: Exhaust Nozzle - Volume 3

Several studies have concluded that a supersonic aircraft, if environmentally acceptable and economically viable, could successfully compete in the 21st century marketplace. However, before industry can commit to what is estimated as a 15 to 20 billion dollar investment, several barrier issues must be resolved. In an effort to address these barrier issues, NASA and Industry teamed to form the High-Speed Research (HSR) program. As part of this program, the Critical Propulsion Components (CPC) element was created and assigned the task of developing those propulsion component technologies necessary to: (1) reduce cruise emissions by a factor of 10 and (2) meet the ever-increasing airport noise restrictions with an economically viable propulsion system. The CPC-identified critical components were ultra-low emission combustors, low-noise/high-performance exhaust nozzles, low-noise fans, and stable/high-performance inlets. Propulsion cycle studies (coordinated with NASA Langley Research Center sponsored airplane studies) were conducted throughout this CPC program to help evaluate candidate components and select the best concepts for the more complex and larger scale research efforts. The propulsion cycle and components ultimately selected were a mixed-flow turbofan (MFTF) engine employing a lean, premixed, prevaporized (LPP) combustor coupled to a two-dimensional mixed compression inlet and a two-dimensional mixer/ejector nozzle. Due to the large amount of material presented in this report, it was prepared in four volumes; Volume 1: Summary, Introduction, and Propulsion System Studies, Volume 2: Combustor, Volume 3: Exhaust Nozzle, and Volume 4: Inlet and Fan/Inlet Acoustic Team.

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NASA NTRS2005

Critical Propulsion Components: Inlet and Fan/Inlet Accoustics Team - Volume 4

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NASA NTRS2005

Critical Propulsion Components: Summary, Introduction, and Propulsion Systems Studies - Volume 1

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NASA NTRS2005

Critical Propulsion Components: Combustor - Volume 2

Several studies have concluded that a supersonic aircraft, if environmentally acceptable and economically viable, could successfully compete in the 21st century marketplace. However, before industry can commit to what is estimated as a 15 to 20 billion dollar investment, several barrier issues must be resolved. In an effort to address these barrier issues, NASA and Industry teamed to form the High-Speed Research (HSR) program. As part of this program, the Critical Propulsion Components (CPC) element was created and assigned the task of developing those propulsion component technologies necessary to: (1) reduce cruise emissions by a factor of 10 and (2) meet the ever-increasing airport noise restrictions with an economically viable propulsion system. The CPC-identified critical components were ultra-low emission combustors, low-noise/high-performance exhaust nozzles, low-noise fans, and stable/high-performance inlets. Propulsion cycle studies (coordinated with NASA Langley Research Center sponsored airplane studies) were conducted throughout this CPC program to help evaluate candidate components and select the best concepts for the more complex and larger scale research efforts. The propulsion cycle and components ultimately selected were a mixed-flow turbofan (MFTF) engine employing a lean, premixed, prevaporized (LPP) combustor coupled to a two-dimensional mixed compression inlet and a two-dimensional mixer/ejector nozzle. Due to the large amount of material presented in this report, it was prepared in four volumes; Volume 1: Summary, Introduction, and Team. Propulsion System Studies, Volume 2: Combustor, Volume 3: Exhaust Nozzle, and Volume 4: Inlet and Fan/Inlet Acoustic Team.

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NASA NTRS2004

Information Technology Support in the 8000 Directorate

My summer internship was spent supporting various projects within the Environmental Management Office and Glenn Safety Office. Mentored by Eli Abumeri, I was trained in areas of Information Technology such as: Servers, printers, scanners, CAD systems, Web, Programming, and Database Management, ODIN (networking, computers, and phones). I worked closely with the Chemical Sampling and Analysis Team (CSAT) to redesign a database to more efficiently manage and maintain data collected for the Drinking Water Program. This Program has been established for over fifteen years here at the Glenn Research Center. It involves the continued testing and retesting of all drinking water dispensers. The quality of the drinking water is of great importance and is determined by comparing the concentration of contaminants in the water with specifications set forth by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) and its 1986 and 1991 amendments. The Drinking Water Program consists of periodic testing of all drinking water fountains and sinks. Each is tested at least once every 2 years for contaminants and naturally occurring species. The EPA's protocol is to collect an initial and a 5 minute draw from each dispenser. The 5 minute draw is what is used for the maximum contaminant level. However, the CS&AT has added a 30 second draw since most individuals do not run the water 5 minutes prior to drinking. This data is then entered into a relational Microsoft Access database. The database allows for the quick retrieval of any test@) done on any dispenser. The data can be queried by building number, date or test type, and test results are documented in an analytical report for employees to read. To aid with the tracking of recycled materials within the lab, my help was enlisted to create a database that could make this process less cumbersome and more efficient. The date of pickup, type of material, weight received, and unit cost per recyclable. This information could then calculate the dollar amount generated by the recycling of certain materials. This database will ultimately prove useful in determining the amounts of materials consumed by the lab and will help serve as an indicator potential overuse.

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NASA NTRS2004

ADAPTIVE CLEARANCE CONTROL SYSTEMS FOR TURBINE ENGINES

The Controls and Dynamics Technology Branch at NASA Glenn Research Center primarily deals in developing controls, dynamic models, and health management technologies for air and space propulsion systems. During the summer of 2004 I was granted the privilege of working alongside professionals who were developing an active clearance control system for commercial jet engines. Clearance, the gap between the turbine blade tip and the encompassing shroud, increases as a result of wear mechanisms and rubbing of the turbine blades on shroud. Increases in clearance cause larger specific fuel consumption (SFC) and loss of efficient air flow. This occurs because, as clearances increase, the engine must run hotter and bum more fuel to achieve the same thrust. In order to maintain efficiency, reduce fuel bum, and reduce exhaust gas temperature (EGT), the clearance must be accurately controlled to gap sizes no greater than a few hundredths of an inch. To address this problem, NASA Glenn researchers have developed a basic control system with actuators and sensors on each section of the shroud. Instead of having a large uniform metal casing, there would be sections of the shroud with individual sensors attached internally that would move slightly to reform and maintain clearance. The proposed method would ultimately save the airline industry millions of dollars.

Blackwell, Keith M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Low Emissions Alternative Power (LEAP) Project Office Business Team of the Aeropropulsion Research Program Office (ARPO) Org. 0140

The program for which I am working at this summer is Propulsion and Power/Low Emissions Alternative Power (P&P/LEAP). It invests in a fundamental TRL 1-6 research and technology portfolio that will enable the future of: Alternative fuels and/or alternative propulsion systems, non-combustion (electric) propulsion systems. P&P/LEAP will identify and capitalize on the highest potential concepts generated both internal and external to the Agency. During my 2004 summer at NASA Glenn Research Center, I worked with my mentor Barbara Mader, in the Project Office with the Business Team completing various tasks for the project and personnel. The LEAP project is a highly matrixed organization. The Project Office is responsible for the goals advocacy and dollar (budget) of the LEAP project. The objectives of the LEAP Project are to discover new energy sources and develop unconventional engines and power systems directed towards greatly reduced emissions, enable new vehicle concepts for public mobility, new science missions and national security. The Propulsion and PowerLow Emissions Alternative Power directly supports the environmental, mobility, national security objectives of the Vehicle Systems Program and the Aeronautics Technology Theme. Technology deliverables include the demonstration through integrated ground tests, a constant volume combustor in an engine system, and UAV/small transport aircraft all electric power system. My mentor serves as a key member of the management team for the Aeropropulsion Research Program Office (ARPO). She has represented the office on numerous occasions, and is a member of a number of center-wide panels/teams, such as the Space management Committee and is chair to the Business Process Consolidation Team. She is responsible for the overall coordination of resources for the Propulsion and Power Project - from advocacy to implementation. The goal for my summer at NASA was to document processes and archive program documents from the past years. I used the computer and office machines, and also worked with personnel in setting up a Cost Estimation Plan. I gained office experience in Word, Excel, and Power Point, with the completion of a variety of tasks. I made spreadsheets that pertained to the budget plan for Journey to Tomorrow, to name a few I have supported the office by tracking resource information: including programmatic travel, project budget at the center level to budgets for individual research sub-projects and grants. I also assisted the Program Support Office in their duties including, representing the office on numerous occasions on center-wide team/panels, such as the Space management committee, IFMP Budget Formulation, Journey to Tomorrow Committee, and the Vehicle Systems Program Business Process Team.

Buttler, Jennifer A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

D-Side: A Facility and Workforce Planning Group Multi-criteria Decision Support System for Johnson Space Center

"To understand and protect our home planet, to explore the universe and search for life, and to inspire the next generation of explorers" is NASA's mission. The Systems Management Office at Johnson Space Center (JSC) is searching for methods to effectively manage the Center's resources to meet NASA's mission. D-Side is a group multi-criteria decision support system (GMDSS) developed to support facility decisions at JSC. D-Side uses a series of sequential and structured processes to plot facilities in a three-dimensional (3-D) graph on the basis of each facility alignment with NASA's mission and goals, the extent to which other facilities are dependent on the facility, and the dollar value of capital investments that have been postponed at the facility relative to the facility replacement value. A similarity factor rank orders facilities based on their Euclidean distance from Ideal and Nadir points. These similarity factors are then used to allocate capital improvement resources across facilities. We also present a parallel model that can be used to support decisions concerning allocation of human resources investments across workforce units. Finally, we present results from a pilot study where 12 experienced facility managers from NASA used D-Side and the organization's current approach to rank order and allocate funds for capital improvement across 20 facilities. Users evaluated D-Side favorably in terms of ease of use, the quality of the decision-making process, decision quality, and overall value-added. Their evaluations of D-Side were significantly more favorable than their evaluations of the current approach. Keywords: NASA, Multi-Criteria Decision Making, Decision Support System, AHP, Euclidean Distance, 3-D Modeling, Facility Planning, Workforce Planning.

Tavana, Madjid↗

NASA NTRS2005

Artificial Neural Network Test Support Development for the Space Shuttle PRCS Thrusters

A significant anomaly, Fuel Valve Pilot Seal Extrusion, is affecting the Shuttle Primary Reaction Control System (PRCS) Thrusters, and has caused 79 to fail. To help address this problem, a Shuttle PRCS Thruster Process Evaluation Team (TPET) was formed. The White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) and Boeing members of the TPET have identified many discrete valve current trace characteristics that are predictive of the problem. However, these are difficult and time consuming to identify and trend by manual analysis. Based on this exhaustive analysis over months, 22 thrusters previously delivered by the Depot were identified as high risk for flight failures. Although these had only recently been installed, they had to be removed from Shuttles OV103 and OV104 for reprocessing, by directive of the Shuttle Project Office. The resulting impact of the thruster removal, replacement, and valve replacement was significant (months of work and hundreds of thousands of dollars). Much of this could have been saved had the proposed Neural Network (NN) tool described in this paper been in place. In addition to the significant benefits to the Shuttle indicated above, the development and implementation of this type of testing will be the genesis for potential Quality improvements across many areas of WSTF test data analysis and will be shared with other NASA centers. Future tests can be designed to incorporate engineering experience via Artificial Neural Nets (ANN) into depot level acceptance of hardware. Additionally, results were shared with a NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) Super Problem Response Team (SPRT). There was extensive interest voiced among many different personnel from several centers. There are potential spin-offs of this effort that can be directly applied to other data acquisition systems as well as vehicle health management for current and future flight vehicles.

Lehr, Mark E.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Mass Spectrometry for Planetary Probes: Past, Present and Future

Atmospheric entry probes present a unique opportunity for performing quantitative analysis of extra-terrestrial atmospheres in cases where remote sensing alone may not be sufficient and measurements with balloons or aircraft is not practical. An entry probe can provide a complete vertical profile of atmospheric parameters including chemical composition, which cannot be obtained with most other techniques. There are, however, unique challenges associated with building instruments for an entry probe, as compared to orbiters, landers, or rovers. Conditions during atmospheric entry are extreme, there are inherent time constraints due to the short duration of the experiment, and the instrument experiences rapid environmental changes in temperature and pressure as it descends. In addition, there are resource limitations, i.e. mass, power, size and bandwidth. Finally, the demands on the instrument design are determined in large part by conditions (pressure, temperature, composition) unique to the particular body under study, and as a result there is no one-size-fits-all instrument for an atmospheric probe. Many of these requirements can be more easily met by miniaturizing the probe instrument. Our experience building mass spectrometers for atmospheric entry probes leads us to believe that the time is right for a fundamental change in the way spaceflight mass spectrometers are built. The emergence over the past twenty years of Micro-electro- mechanical Systems (MEMS), utilizing lithographic semiconductor fabrication techniques to produce instrument systems in miniature, holds great promise for application to spaceflight mass spectrometry. A highly miniaturized, high performance and low-power mass spectrometer would be an enormous benefit to future entry probe missions, allowing, for example, parallel measurements (e.g., multiple simultaneous gas chromatographic analyses and direct atmospheric leaks.) Such an instrument would also enable mass spectrometry on board small multiple entry probes. In the development of a MEMS Mass Spectrometer, the challenge facing us is to move beyond the proof-of-concept, where research dollars tend to focus, and carry out the detailed work of developing a high performance mass spectrometer system on a chip which meets the unique technical requirements for an atmospheric entry probe described above.

Niemann, Hasso B.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS): An Award Winning Propulsion System Simulation Tool

The Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS) is a full propulsion system simulation tool used by aerospace engineers to predict and analyze the aerothermodynamic behavior of commercial jet aircraft, military applications, and space transportation. The NPSS framework was developed to support aerospace, but other applications are already leveraging the initial capabilities, such as aviation safety, ground-based power, and alternative energy conversion devices such as fuel cells. By using the framework and developing the necessary components, future applications that NPSS could support include nuclear power, water treatment, biomedicine, chemical processing, and marine propulsion. NPSS will dramatically reduce the time, effort, and expense necessary to design and test jet engines. It accomplishes that by generating sophisticated computer simulations of an aerospace object or system, thus enabling engineers to "test" various design options without having to conduct costly, time-consuming real-life tests. The ultimate goal of NPSS is to create a numerical "test cell" that enables engineers to create complete engine simulations overnight on cost-effective computing platforms. Using NPSS, engine designers will be able to analyze different parts of the engine simultaneously, perform different types of analysis simultaneously (e.g., aerodynamic and structural), and perform analysis in a more efficient and less costly manner. NPSS will cut the development time of a new engine in half, from 10 years to 5 years. And NPSS will have a similar effect on the cost of development: new jet engines will cost about a billion dollars to develop rather than two billion. NPSS is also being applied to the development of space transportation technologies, and it is expected that similar efficiencies and cost savings will result. Advancements of NPSS in fiscal year 2001 included enhancing the NPSS Developer's Kit to easily integrate external components of varying fidelities, providing the initial Visual-Based Syntax (VBS) capability, and developing additional capabilities to support space transportation. NPSS was supported under NASA's High Performance Computing and Communications Program. Through the NASA/Industry Cooperative Effort agreement, NASA Glenn and its industry and Government partners are developing NPSS. The NPSS team consists of propulsion experts and software engineers from GE Aircraft Engines, Pratt & Whitney, The Boeing Company, Honeywell, Rolls-Royce Corporation, Williams International, Teledyne Continental Motors, Arnold Engineering Development Center, Wright Patterson Air Force Base, and the NASA Glenn Research Center. Glenn is leading the way in developing NPSS--a method for solving complex design problems that's faster, better, and cheaper.

Stauber, Laurel J.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Atlas V Launch Incorporated NASA Glenn Thermal Barrier

In the Spring of 2002, Aerojet experienced a major failure during a qualification test of the solid rocket motor that they were developing for the Atlas V Enhanced Expendable Launch Vehicle. In that test, hot combustion gas reached the O-rings in the nozzle-to-case joint and caused a structural failure that resulted in loss of the nozzle and aft dome sections of the motor. To improve the design of this joint, Aerojet decided to incorporate three braided carbon-fiber thermal barriers developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The thermal barriers were used to block the searing-hot 5500 F pressurized gases from reaching the temperature-sensitive O-rings that seal the joint. Glenn originally developed the thermal barriers for the nozzle joints of the space shuttle solid rocket motors, and Aerojet decided to use them on the basis of the results of several successful ground tests of the thermal barriers in the shuttle rockets. Aerojet undertook an aggressive schedule to redesign the rocket nozzle-to-case joint with the thermal barriers and to qualify it in time for a launch planned for the middle of 2003. They performed two successful qualification tests (Oct. and Dec. 2002) in which the Glenn thermal barriers effectively protected the O-rings. These qualification tests saved hundreds of thousands of dollars in development costs and put the Lockheed-Martin/Aerojet team back on schedule. On July 17, 2003, the first flight of an Atlas V boosted with solid rocket motors successfully launched a commercial satellite into orbit from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. Aero-jet's two 67-ft solid rocket boosters performed flawlessly, with each providing thrust in excess of 250,000 lbf. Both motors incorporated three Glenn-developed thermal barriers in their nozzle-to-case joints. The Cablevision satellite launched on this mission will be used to provide direct-to-home satellite television programming for the U.S. market starting in late 2003. The Atlas V is a product of the military's Enhanced Expendable Launch Vehicle program designed to provide assured military access to space. It can lift payloads up to 19,100 lb to geosynchronous transfer orbit and was designed to meet Department of Defense, commercial, and NASA needs. The Atlas V and Delta IV are two launch systems being considered by NASA to launch the Orbital Space Plane/Crew Exploration Vehicle. The launch and rocket costs of this mission are valued at $250 million. Successful application of the Glenn thermal barrier to the Atlas V program was an enormous breakthrough for the program's technical and schedule success.

Dunlap, Patrick H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Applications of Principled Search Methods in Climate Influences and Mechanisms

Forest and grass fires cause economic losses in the billions of dollars in the U.S. alone. In addition, boreal forests constitute a large carbon store; it has been estimated that, were no burning to occur, an additional 7 gigatons of carbon would be sequestered in boreal soils each century. Effective wildfire suppression requires anticipation of locales and times for which wildfire is most probable, preferably with a two to four week forecast, so that limited resources can be efficiently deployed. The United States Forest Service (USFS), and other experts and agencies have developed several measures of fire risk combining physical principles and expert judgment, and have used them in automated procedures for forecasting fire risk. Forecasting accuracies for some fire risk indices in combination with climate and other variables have been estimated for specific locations, with the value of fire risk index variables assessed by their statistical significance in regressions. In other cases, the MAPSS forecasts [23, 241 for example, forecasting accuracy has been estimated only by simulated data. We describe alternative forecasting methods that predict fire probability by locale and time using statistical or machine learning procedures trained on historical data, and we give comparative assessments of their forecasting accuracy for one fire season year, April- October, 2003, for all U.S. Forest Service lands. Aside from providing an accuracy baseline for other forecasting methods, the results illustrate the interdependence between the statistical significance of prediction variables and the forecasting method used.

Glymour, Clark↗

NASA NTRS2005

Extending a Flight Management Computer for Simulation and Flight Experiments

In modern transport aircraft, the flight management computer (FMC) has evolved from a flight planning aid to an important hub for pilot information and origin-to-destination optimization of flight performance. Current trends indicate increasing roles of the FMC in aviation safety, aviation security, increasing airport capacity, and improving environmental impact from aircraft. Related research conducted at the Langley Research Center (LaRC) often requires functional extension of a modern, full-featured FMC. Ideally, transport simulations would include an FMC simulation that could be tailored and extended for experiments. However, due to the complexity of a modern FMC, a large investment (millions of dollars over several years) and scarce domain knowledge are needed to create such a simulation for transport aircraft. As an intermediate alternative, the Flight Research Services Directorate (FRSD) at LaRC created a set of reusable software products to extend flight management functionality upstream of a Boeing-757 FMC, transparently simulating or sharing its operator interfaces. The paper details the design of these products and highlights their use on NASA projects.

Madden, Michael M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

A Reusable and Adaptable Software Architecture for Embedded Space Flight System: The Core Flight Software System (CFS)

The contents include the following: High availability. Hardware is in harsh environment. Flight processor (constraints) very widely due to power and weight constraints. Software must be remotely modifiable and still operate while changes are being made. Many custom one of kind interfaces for one of a kind missions. Sustaining engineering. Price of failure is high, tens to hundreds of millions of dollars.

Wilmot, Jonathan↗

NASA NTRS2006

Recent Changes in High-Latitude Glaciers, Ice Caps, and Ice Sheets

The glaciers and ice sheets of the world contain enough ice to raise sea level by approximately 70 meters if they were to disappear entirely, and most of this ice is located in the climatically sensitive polar regions. Fortunately changes of this magnitude would probably take many thousands of years to occur, but recent discoveries indicate that these ice masses are responding to changes in today s climate more rapidly than previously thought. These responses are likely to be of great societal significance, primarily in terms of their implications for sea level, but also in terms of how their discharge of freshwater, through melting or calving, may impact ocean circulation. For millions of years, oceans have risen and fallen as the Earth has warmed and cooled, and ice on land has shrunk and grown. Today is no different in that respect, as sea levels have been rising at a rate of nearly 2 m per year during the last century (Miller and Douglas 2004), and 3 mm/yr in the last 12 years (Leuliette et al. 2004). What is different today, however, is that tens - perhaps hundreds - of millions of people live in coastal areas that are vulnerable to changes in sea level. Rising seas erode beaches, increase flood potential, and reduce the ability of barrier islands and coastal wetlands to mitigate the effects of major storms and hurricanes. The costs associated with a one-meter rise in sea level are estimated to be in the hundreds of billions of dollars in the United States alone. The worldwide costs in human terms would be far greater as some vulnerable low-lying coastal regions would become inundated, especially in poorer nations that do not have the resources to deal with such changes. Such considerations are particularly important in light of the fact that a one meter sea level rise is not significantly outside the 0.09 to 0.88 range of predictions for this century (IPCC 2001), and rises of this magnitude have occurred in the past in as little as 20 years (Fairbanks 1989). While the expansion of the warming oceans is estimated to be about a third of recent sea level rise, (Miller and Douglas 2004) the greatest potential for significantly increasing sea level lies in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. For different reasons, each exhibits characteristics that suggest they are potentially unstable. In Antarctica, large portions of the ice cover rest on a soft bed that lies below sea level, making it vulnerable to runaway retreat. The Greenland ice sheet experiences considerable melt, which has the potential to rapidly accelerate the flow of ice toward the sea. While smaller ice masses, such as the Alaskan Glaciers and the Canadian ice caps, do not have anywhere near the same potential to impact sea level as the vast ice sheets do, many are melting rapidly, posing a significant near-term threat.

Abdalati, Waleed↗

NASA NTRS2005

Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted to change this by developing a PRA tool that would be friendlier, more understandable, and more useful to the broader engineering community. This concept ultimately led to the look, feel, and functionality that QRAS has today.

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