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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning aided line intensity ratio method for helium–hydrogen mixed recombining plasmas

The helium line intensity ratio (LIR) with the help of a collisional radiative (CR) model has long been used to measure the electron density, n e , and temperature, T e , and its potential and limitations for fusion applications have been discussed. However, it has been reported that the CR model approach leads to deviations in helium–hydrogen mixed plasmas and/or recombining plasmas. In this study, a machine learning (ML) aided LIR method is used to measure n e and T e from spectroscopic data of helium–hydrogen mixed recombining plasmas in the divertor simulator Magnum-PSI. To analyze mixed plasmas, which have more complex spectral shapes, the spectroscopy data were used directly for training instead of separating the intensities of each line. Finally, it is shown that the ML approach can provide a robust and simpler analysis method to deduce n e and T e from the visible emissions in helium–hydrogen mixed plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring Sensitivity of ICF Outputs to Design Parameters in Experiments Using Machine Learning

We report building a sustainable burn platform in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) requires an understanding of the complex coupling of physical processes and the effects that key experimental design changes have on implosion performance. While simulation codes are used to model ICF implosions, incomplete physics and the need for approximations deteriorate their predictive capability. Identification of relationships between controllable design inputs and measurable outcomes can help guide the future design of experiments and development of simulation codes, which can potentially improve the accuracy of the computational models used to simulate ICF implosions. In this article, we leverage developments in machine learning (ML) and methods for ML feature importance/sensitivity analysis to identify complex relationships in ways that are difficult to process using expert judgment alone. We present work using random forest (RF) regression for prediction of yield, velocity, and other experimental outcomes given a suite of design parameters, along with an assessment of important relationships and uncertainties in the prediction model. We show that RF models are capable of learning and predicting on ICF experimental data with high accuracy, and we extract feature importance metrics that provide insight into the physical significance of different controllable design inputs for various ICF design configurations. These results can be used to augment expert intuition and simulation results for optimal design of future ICF experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

HyperSpace

Machine learning (ML) models often contain numerous hyperparameters, free parameters that must be set before the models can be trained. As the number of model hyperparameters increases, their optimization becomes significantly more challenging as we face a combinatorial increase in potential model configurations. Similarly, there is an increased chance that our models’ hyperparameters interact in complex ways. HyperSpace allows a user to optimize complex machine learning algorithms based on their hyperparameters. HyperSpace works by parallelizing parameter search spaces, running Bayesian model based optimization (SMBO) over each of these spaces in parallel. It was designed to be as minimally invasive as possible such that very little change to existing code will be needed to get a user started.

Ramanathan, Arvind↗
DOE OSTI2023

Autonomous System Inference, Trojan, and Adversarial Reprogramming Attack and Defense (Final)

In the world of ever-advancing technology, Autonomous Systems (AS) find extensive application, bolstering functionalities of critical infrastructures such as nuclear power plants. These systems, however, are increasingly becoming a target for nefarious activities, namely through inference attacks, trojan attacks, and adversarial reprogramming. This paper delves into a comprehensive exploration of machine learning (ML)-driven autonomous control systems within advanced nuclear reactor designs, revealing the vulnerabilities and proposing strategies for defense against potential cyber-attacks. Advanced cyber-attacks against critical infrastructure and the energy sector are becoming more common. With the invention of autonomous control systems (ACS) within advanced nuclear reactor designs, system designers, reactor operators, and regulators must consider cybersecurity during the design and operational phases. This article provides a cyber threat assessment of machine learning (ML)- based digital twinning (DT) technologies in the context of advanced reactor ACS. A cyber-physical testbed was created to emulate nuclear reactor digital instrumentation and controls (I&C) and act as a basis for the ACS. The ACS was designed as two plant-level DTs predicting reactor malfunctions and determining control actions and two component-level DTs responsible for classifying component states and forecasting component inputs and outputs (I/O). Two duplicate ACS designs– one using a traditional ML framework and one using an automated ML (AutoML) framework– were created and tested against cyber-attacks on training data, real-time process data, and ML model architectures to determine their respective qualitative cyber-risk in terms of likelihood and impact. Both frameworks showed similar cyber-resilience against training, real-time, and ML architecture attacks, proving that neither is inherently more secure. Recommended safeguard and security measures are posed to system designers, reactor operators, and regulators to maintain the cybersecurity of ML-based DT technologies such as ACS, prompting a holistic view of shared responsibility for maintaining cyber-secure ML-based systems. As global reliance on generation III reactors begins to be critically assessed, the evolution towards advanced reactor systems utilizing digital instrumentation and controls (I&C) becomes not merely preferable, but essential. The integration of semi and fully autonomous control systems (ACS), powered by digital I&C and machine learning (ML)-based digital twinning (DT) technologies, emerges as a potent strategy to mitigate operations and maintenance costs, thereby enhancing the economic feasibility of novel reactor designs. However, with a staggering 500% and 380% increase in cyber-attacks reported against the energy sector by the United States Department of Energy (DoE) and the European Union respectively, a surge in cyber vulnerabilities specifically targeting the nuclear industry has been 2 markedly observed. Notable incidents, such as the W32.Ramnit spyware infiltration at the Gundremmingen nuclear power plant in Germany and the Dtrack spyware intrusion at the Kudankulam nuclear power plant in India, while not directly compromising core industrial control systems (ICS), underscore a compelling necessity to fortify cybersecurity protocols in safeguarding reactor systems against increasingly adept digital adversaries. In light of this, our investigation extends beyond conventional cybersecurity parameters, diving into the intricate web of potential vulnerabilities woven into ML-based DTs and ACS in advanced reactor systems. A crafted cyber-physical testbed and preliminary ACS were devised to act as a mirror, reflecting potential configurations of advanced reactor control designs. Moreover, this study is intertwined with a scrutinization of ML models, developed either through conventional, manually tuned methodologies or via automated means through AutoML, probing into their cyber-risk profiles within operational technology (OT) environments. Expanding on this, two distinct ACS blueprints were forged – one navigating through the corridors of traditional ML and the other traversing the path of AutoML – in an effort to holistically encapsulate the considerations pivotal to ML-based DT control system design. Employing the SANS Institute Industrial Control System (ICS) Kill Chain and the MITRE ATT&CK Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTP) framework, a structured analysis was conducted, launching three targeted attacks against the training dataset, real-time dataset, and ML models, therein dissecting the potential cyber-attack implications against both ML frameworks within an ACS milieu. It is essential to note that three distinct categories of attacks were conducted against both ACS configurations, each encompassing three distinct ML-based DTs, cumulating in a total of 18 varied attacks. This exploration extends into the realms of Autonomous System Inference, Trojan, and Adversarial Reprogramming Attack and Defense, unraveling vulnerabilities, and opportunities for fortified defenses against such intrusions, particularly where ML-driven technologies, and by extension, ACS, are deployed. Final recommendations, articulated through a lens of security, safeguard, and implementation considerations, are presented for both traditional and AutoML models, anchoring upon the existing knowledge landscape and ML-based DT modeling for ACS, and are offered as a beacon to guide the nuclear industry through the intricate cybersecurity challenges that lie ahead.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Turbulence theories and statistical closure approaches

When discussing research in physics and in science more generally, it is common to ascribe equal importance to the three components of the scientific trinity: theoretical, experimental, and computational studies. This review will explore the future of modern turbulence theory by tracing its history, which began in earnest with Kolmogorov’s 1941 analysis of turbulence cascade and inertial range [A.N. Kolmogorov, Dokl. Akad. Nauk SSSR, 30, 299, (1941); 32, 19, (1941)]. The 80th Anniversary of Kolmogorov’s landmark study is a welcome opportunity to survey the achievements and evaluate the future of the theoretical approach of turbulence research. Over the years, turbulence theories have been critically important in laying the foundation of our understanding of the nature of turbulent flows. In particular, the Direct Interaction Approximation (DIA) [R.H. Kraichnan, J. Fluid Mech., 5, 497 (1959)] and its subsequent development, known as the statistical closure approach, can be identified as perhaps the most profound single advancement. The remarkable success of the statistical closure has furnished a platform to study such essential concepts as the energy transfer process and interacting scales, and the roles of the straining and sweeping motions. More recently, the quasi-Lagrangian formulation of V. L’vov & I. Procaccia and Kraichnan’s solvable passive scalar model provided powerful ways to explore another fundamental aspect of turbulent flows, the phenomena of intermittency, and the associated anomalous scaling exponents. In the meantime, the theory of fluid equilibria has been developed to describe the large-scale structures that can emerge from turbulent cascades of two-dimensional and geophysical flows at a later time. And yet, despite all these successes, analytical treatments suffer from mathematical complexities. As a result, the utility of theoretical approaches has been limited to relatively idealized flows. On the other hand, in recent decades, computational abilities and experimental facilities have reached an unprecedented scale. Looking beyond the horizon, the imminent deployment of exascale supercomputers will generate complete datasets of the entire flow field of key benchmark flows, allowing researchers to extract additional measurements concerning fully developed, complex turbulent flow fields far beyond those available from the statistical closure theories. Some other developments that could potentially influence the future course of turbulence theories include the advancement of machine learning, artificial intelligence, and data science; likely disruptions arising from the advent of quantum computation; and the increasingly prominent role of turbulence research in providing more accurate climate scientific data. Finally, turbulence theorists can leverage these developments by asking the right questions and developing advanced, sophisticated frameworks that will be able to predict and correlate vast amounts of data from the other two components of the trinity.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Autonomous Molecular Structure Imaging with High-Resolution Atomic Force Microscopy for Molecular Mixture Discovery

Due to its single-molecule sensitivity, high-resolution atomic force microscopy (HR-AFM) has proved to be a valuable and uniquely advantageous tool to study complex molecular mixtures, which hold promise for developing clean energy and achieving environmental sustainability. However, significant challenges remain to achieve the full potential of the sophisticated and time-consuming experiments. Automation combined with machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) is key to overcoming these challenges. Here we present Auto-HR-AFM, an AI tool to automatically collect HR-AFM images of petroleum-based mixtures. In this study, we trained an instance segmentation model to teach Auto-HR-AFM how to recognize features in HR-AFM images. Auto-HR-AFM then uses that information to optimize the imaging by adjusting the probe-molecule distance for each molecule in the run. Auto-HR-AFM is the initial tool that will lead to fully automated scanning probe microscopy (SPM) experiments, from start to finish. This automation will allow SPM to become a mainstream characterization technique for complex mixtures, an otherwise unattainable target.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Value of Forecasters‐in‐the‐Loop in Real‐Time Flood Forecasting in the Age of Machine Learning

Machine learning (ML) applications in hydrological forecasting are increasingly prevalent and show great potential. However, many previous studies have only evaluated performance through reanalysis or retrospective simulations compared to simplified baselines. This study provides the first assessment of ML performance against actual operational forecasting systems operated by the California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), which combines the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) with forecasters-in-the-loop. Results demonstrate that forecasters-in-the-loop systems consistently outperform ML models in both general forecasts and flood alerting across lead times up to 96 hr, even when ML models use observed forcings, while CNRFC operational process relies on biased weather forecasts. Our analysis reveals that forecaster expertise maintains forecast reliability despite inaccurate precipitation inputs, with human-guided systems showing superior performance degradation characteristics at extended lead times. These findings highlight the irreplaceable value of human expertise in operational forecasting and caution against overstating current ML capabilities in real-world applications.

Tran, Vinh Ngoc [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exciting DeePMD: Learning excited-state energies, forces, and non-adiabatic couplings

We extend the DeePMD neural network architecture to predict electronic structure properties necessary to perform non-adiabatic dynamics simulations. While learning the excited state energies and forces follows a straightforward extension of the DeePMD approach for ground-state energies and forces, how to learn the map between the non-adiabatic coupling vectors (NACV) and the local chemical environment descriptors of DeePMD is less trivial. Most implementations of machine-learning-based non-adiabatic dynamics inherently approximate the NACVs, with an underlying assumption that the energy-difference-scaled NACVs are conservative fields. We overcome this approximation, implementing the method recently introduced by Richardson [J. Chem. Phys. 158, 011102 (2023)], which learns the symmetric dyad of the energy-difference-scaled NACV. Furthermore, the efficiency and accuracy of our neural network architecture are demonstrated through the example of the methaniminium cation CH 2 NH 2 + .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deceptive Infusion of Data: A Novel Data Masking Paradigm for High-Valued Systems

This work addresses how analysts of a high-valued system (e.g., nuclear reactor, aircraft turbine designs) can extract findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable scientific data for public dissemination to artificial intelligence and machine-learning (AI/ML) researchers in a manner that cannot be reverse-engineered, potentially compromising sensitive or proprietary information. State-of-the-art methods address this problem through data masking techniques, which allow access to a subset of the information while obfuscating private and potentially identifying information (e.g., personally identifying medical data). These methods are unsuitable for industrial engineering processes, where AI/ML tools need explicit access to all the data available to draw the best inference about the system to help optimize its performance and identify its vulnerabilities, etc. Our novel deceptive infusion of data paradigm provides a solution to this conundrum by developing a mathematical approach capable of concealing the identity of the system while providing full access to all the features employed by AI/ML tools to ensure their optimal performance.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accelerate microstructure evolution simulation using graph neural networks with adaptive spatiotemporal resolution

Abstract Surrogate models driven by sizeable datasets and scientific machine-learning methods have emerged as an attractive microstructure simulation tool with the potential to deliver predictive microstructure evolution dynamics with huge savings in computational costs. Taking 2D and 3D grain growth simulations as an example, we present a completely overhauled computational framework based on graph neural networks with not only excellent agreement to both the ground truth phase-field methods and theoretical predictions, but enhanced accuracy and efficiency compared to previous works based on convolutional neural networks. These improvements can be attributed to the graph representation, both improved predictive power and a more flexible data structure amenable to adaptive mesh refinement. As the simulated microstructures coarsen, our method can adaptively adopt remeshed grids and larger timesteps to achieve further speedup. The data-to-model pipeline with training procedures together with the source codes are provided.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Shortest Path and Neighborhood Subgraph Extraction on a Spiking Memristive Neuromorphic Implementation

Spiking neuromorphic computers (SNCs) are promising as a post Moore's law technology partly because of their potential for very low power computation. SNCs have primarily been demonstrated on machine learning and neural network applications, but they can also be used for applications beyond machine learning that can leverage SNC properties such as massively parallel computation and collocated processing and memory. Here, we demonstrate two graph problems (shortest path and neighborhood subgraph extraction) that can be solved using SNCs. We discuss the approach for mapping these applications to an SNC. We also estimate the performance of a memristive SNC for these applications on three real-world graphs.

Schuman, Catherine↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Arctic LDRD project: What happened?

This presentation overviews results from the 2019 LDRD Reserve project “Diagnosing near-future changes in Arctic sea ice and ocean conditions” and a follow-up 2020 CSES Rapid Response project “Multi- Model Risk Assessment for Arctic Navigability.” We analyzed Arctic simulations from 4 CMIP6 model ensembles (E3SM, CESM-CAM, CESM-WACCM and CESM-DPLE), comparing them with observations. We then applied a machine-learning approach using copulas to produce joint probabilities of adverse conditions along potential shipping transit routes through the Arctic. Here we compare and contrast the different models and examine the utility of the copula approach applied to these data sets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Neutron-antineutron oscillation search with MicroBooNE and DUNE

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is an international project aiming at neutrino physics and astrophysics and a search for phenomena predicted by theories beyond the standard model (BSM). The excellent imaging capability of Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) technology, particle tracking and identification utilized in the Far Detector, as well as the Far Detector size and underground placement, allow the experiment to achieve high sensitivity to various rare processes. BSM theories predict the existence of baryon number non-conservation effects, in particular when the baryon number changes by 2. Here we discuss the sensitivity of DUNE to neutron-antineutron oscillation. With full event simulation and reconstruction using the LArSoft package, we have investigated the background to potential signal events from atmospheric neutrino interactions and particle misidentification, and utilized machine learning techniques to enhance the discrimination between signal and background. The methodologies being developed for a high-sensitivity search for neutron-antineutron oscillation in DUNE can also be demonstrated with the currently running MicroBooNE LArTPC. We discuss progress on demonstrating the developed techniques with the first-ever search for neutron-antineutron oscillation in a LArTPC using MicroBooNE data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2018

A machine learning approach to predict metabolic pathway dynamics from time-series multiomics data

New synthetic biology capabilities hold the promise of dramatically improving our ability to engineer biological systems. However, a fundamental hurdle in realizing this potential is our inability to accurately predict biological behavior after modifying the corresponding genotype. Kinetic models have traditionally been used to predict pathway dynamics in bioengineered systems, but they take significant time to develop, and rely heavily on domain expertise. Here, we show that the combination of machine learning and abundant multiomics data (proteomics and metabolomics) can be used to effectively predict pathway dynamics in an automated fashion. The new method outperforms a classical kinetic model, and produces qualitative and quantitative predictions that can be used to productively guide bioengineering efforts. This method systematically leverages arbitrary amounts of new data to improve predictions, and does not assume any particular interactions, but rather implicitly chooses the most predictive ones.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Considerations regarding the Use of Computer Vision Machine Learning in Safety-Related or Risk-Significant Applications in Nuclear Power Plants

With the advancements made to date in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), significant potential exists to utilize AI capabilities for nuclear power plant (NPP) applications. AI can replicate human decision making and it is usually faster and more accurate than humans. For implementations that impact critical NPP applications (e.g., safety-related or non-safety systems that potentially affect overall plant risk), a deeper safety analysis of the AI methods is necessary. AI applied to NPP operations could resemble the use of digital I&C (DI&C) because such applications involve digital computer hardware and custom-designed software that input plant data, execute complex software algorithms, and output the results to a system or licensed human operator to potentially provoke an action. For AI methods to be compliant with current safety requirements for DI&C, AI compatibility must be evaluated, and AI-related gaps may exist that prevent the prompt deployment of AI in NPPs. This effort aims to evaluate how example AI technologies align with the DI&C safety framework, and discusses how they could be analyzed, modeled, tested, and validated in a manner similar to typical DI&C technologies. Because AI is a broad field that encompasses areas such as machine learning (ML), natural language processing, and computer vision, this research focused on a subset of methods categorized as the computer vision ML (CVML) methods. This report explores two CVML use cases, gauge reading and fire watch, considered relevant to the DI&C standards, as they could play a safety-critical role. For the gauge reading use case, a CVML-enabled technology that can read gauges at oblique angles is utilized. For the fire watch use case, a CVML-enabled technology is utilized that migrates fire watch from a manual (human) approach to automated fire detection. These use cases are mainly intended to give context to the CVML system discussion. This effort assumes the worst-case scenario, with the CVML system being used to replace a safety-related or risk-significant system, thus requiring evaluation. Evaluating CVML against most of the relevant safety requirements for DI&C yielded several CVML-specific considerations due to the uniqueness of its characteristics in comparison with typical DI&C systems. For example, CVML models often employ commonly used (open-source) datasets, and it is not always possible to determine the level of overlap among open-source datasets. Therefore, the independence of the developed CVML models when demonstrating diversity is questionable, therefore creating vulnerability to common cause failure (CCF). The design verification process is also impacted since the data overlap could result in overestimation of the software validation and verification (V&V) performance results. Section 2 of this report evaluates a list of the identified CVML-specific characteristics and discusses the resulting considerations and potential solutions in the context of each referenced requirement. A summation is provided in Section 3. This report is not to be used as a guideline. It was developed to identify and consider issues in the implementation of ML technologies used to augment activities that may have a bearing on plant operation. The report draws parallels to the use of DI&C technologies, for which many standards are available to guide their use in nuclear plant operation. It considers the technologies and some of the potential implications of their use in safety-related applications but is not intended to address regulatory or licensing related issues.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2019

Machine Learning Applied to a Variable Charge Atomistic Model for Cu/Hf Binary Alloy Oxide Heterostructures [Machine Learning a Variable Charge Atomistic Model for Cu/Hf Binary Alloy Oxide Heterostructures]

Alloy oxide heterostructures are essential for a wide variety of energy applications, including anticorrosion coatings, bifunctional catalysis, energy storage, as well as emerging platforms for multilevel nonvolatile memory and neuromorphic devices. The key role played by oxide composition, density, and stoichiometry in governing electrochemical reactions, interface structure, and ionic transport in alloy oxides remains largely unknown. This is primarily due to the lack of variable charge interatomic potential models that can adequately describe the various atomic/ionic interactions in alloy oxides within a unified framework. Here, we introduce a charge transfer ionic potential (CTIP) model for Cu/Hf/O alloy system and demonstrate its ability to accurately capture the complex potential energy surface owing to dynamically varying interactions, including metallic (Cu/Hf), ionic (Cu/Hf/Ox), mixed environment (interfaces). We leverage supervised machine learning methods powered by genetic algorithms coupled with local simplex optimization to efficiently navigate through a high-dimensional parameter space and identify an optimum set of an independent set of CTIP parameters. We train our model against an extensive first-principles based data set that includes lattice constants, cohesive energies, equations of state, and elastic constants of various experimentally observed polymorphs of hafnia, copper oxide, hafnium, as well as copper. Our machine-learned CTIP model captures the structure, elastic properties, thermodynamics, and energetic ordering of various polymorphs. It also accurately predicts the surface properties of both oxides and their metals. To demonstrate the suitability of our CTIP model for investigating dynamic processes, we employed it to identify the atomistic scale mechanisms associated with the initial nanoscale oxidation and surface oxide growth on Cu-doped hafnia surfaces. Here, our machine-learned CTIP model can be used to probe the dynamic response of Cu/Hf/O alloy interfaces subjected to external stimuli (e.g., electric field, pressure, temperature, strain, etc.) and a variety of atomistic phenomena including the dynamics of switching in emerging neuromorphic platforms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Analysis of Impact of Western US Fires on Central US Hailstorms

Fires, including wildfires, harm air quality and essential public services like transportation, communication, and utilities. These fires can also influence atmospheric conditions, including temperature and aerosols, potentially affecting severe convective storms. Here, we investigate the remote impacts of fires in the western United States (WUS) on the occurrence of large hail (size: $\geqslant$ 2.54 cm) in the central US (CUS) over the 20-year period of 2001–20 using the machine learning (ML), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) methods. The developed RF and XGB models demonstrate high accuracy (> 90%) and F1 scores of up to 0.78 in predicting large hail occurrences when WUS fires and CUS hailstorms coincide, particularly in four states (Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas). The key contributing variables identified from both ML models include the meteorological variables in the fire region (temperature and moisture), the westerly wind over the plume transport path, and the fire features (i.e., the maximum fire power and burned area). Importantly, the results confirm a linkage between WUS fires and severe weather in the CUS, corroborating the findings of our previous modeling study conducted on case simulations with a detailed physics model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Failure Analysis–Informed Risk Assessment Framework for Geological Carbon Storage Using Numerical Simulation and Machine Learning

Geological carbon storage (GCS) is recognized as a critical technology for achieving large-scale reductions in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Ensuring long-term containment and safety requires robust risk assessment frameworks that account for geological uncertainty and identify potential failure scenarios. Among various indicators, the area of review (AoR) serves as a key metric for evaluating storage performance, regulatory compliance, and monitoring design, as it delineates the spatial extent impacted by pressure buildup and plume migration. However, conventional AoR-based risk assessments typically perturb parameters within narrow uncertainty bounds, potentially overlooking rare but high-impact events arising from extreme geological conditions. In this study, we present a failure analysis–informed risk assessment framework for large-scale GCS projects to improve site prescreening and monitoring design. A suite of 300 numerical simulations was generated using stochastic geological models that vary five key parameters: net-to-gross ratio, anisotropy azimuth, porosity multiplier, permeability multiplier, and vertical-to-horizontal permeability ratio. Among these, 200 realizations represent normal geological uncertainty, while 100 additional cases explore extreme yet plausible conditions for failure-case analysis. The AoR was simulated and computed from pressure and CO 2 saturation fields, where the baseline AoR boundary, representing the extent predicted under typical geological uncertainty, was defined as the union of 200 normal-range simulations, and failure was identified when extreme-range cases exceeded this baseline. Results show that incorporating broader parameter uncertainty produces significantly larger AoR extents, underscoring the potential underestimation of risk under conventional uncertainty ranges. Furthermore, spatial probability maps derived from failure-induced AoR exceedance identify regions requiring enhanced monitoring attention. Various machine learning (ML)–based classifiers were developed to predict failure occurrence from geological parameters, with the random forest model achieving the highest performance (F1-score of 0.986). Consistent findings from correlation coefficient, feature importance, and Sobol sensitivity analyses reveal that low net-to-gross ratios and permeability multipliers are the dominant risk drivers, reflecting reduced reservoir connectivity and limited pressure dissipation. Altogether, these results provide a novel framework for risk-informed site prescreening and monitoring design that explicitly considers rare but high-impact geological scenarios in GCS projects.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗