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NASA NTRS2018

Impacts of NASA's Earth Observations on Subseasonal and Seasonal Forecasts

NASA's suite of Earth-observing satellites provides a unique view of many processes on Earth, with relevance on timescales ranging from hours to weeks and even years. NASA's observations span all parts of the Earth system: atmospheric, ocean, land and cryosphere, and include physical, chemical and biological components. This presentation explores use of NASA observations in extended-range prediction, from many days to months, using the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) assimilation and predictive modeling capabilities. The skill of a weather forecast is linked to the fidelity of the initialization process (data assimilation) and the realistic representation of "fast" physical processes in the model. At longer time horizons, the slower "feedback" processes in the Earth System begin to take a more prominent role in the accuracy of the forecast. Simultaneously, forecast-skill attribution transitions away from feature-based metrics that emphasize smaller scales (e.g., representations of fronts and vortices) to metrics that emphasize the statistical distributions of large-scale features (e.g., ENSO diagnostics and teleconnections). This presentation will summarize studies performed using the GEOS-S2S (subseasonal to seasonal) system that explore the impacts of NASA observations on the fidelity of the forecasts. The GEOS-S2S system is configured for the atmosphere-ocean-land-ice model and is initialized using in-situ and space-based observations, including atmospheric aerosols and ozone which are not typically analyzed in such systems. The GEOS-S2S model routinely includes aerosol feedbacks, which systematically impact the realism of the forecasts, providing a first example of how suitable NASA observations impact the performance of the GEOS-S2S system. Studies in which a stratospheric chemistry module is activated in the GEOS-S2S system allow the impacts of ozone radiative feedbacks to be isolated. Space-based observations of sea-surface temperature and altimetry are routinely analyzed for the initialization of the GEOS-S2S system; recent advances allow the use of NASA's sea-surface salinity data, which are shown to impact the long-range skill of the forecasts.

Pawson, Steven↗

DOE OSTI2022

Utilizing commercial heating, ventilating, and air conditioning systems to provide grid services: A review

The modern power grid faces multiple challenges due to an increase in the adoption of renewable generation, such as dynamically balancing supply and demand at different time scales. Demand side management in buildings plays a vital role in achieving this balance because buildings can provide grid services through a variety of building assets. However, the development of grid-interactive, efficient buildings is still in its infancy, and a systematic and holistic understanding of grid service delivery strategies in terms of energy efficiency, load shifting, load shedding and load modulating is still limited. This paper is a comprehensive review of the development and application of building-level control strategies for utilizing heating, ventilating, and air conditioning systems to provide grid services. These strategies have been investigated through numerical and experimental studies. Control algorithms, such as heuristic rule-based control and model-based control, have been used to enable the automatic control delivery of grid services. The advantages and disadvantages of the strategies are summarized and discussed. Finally, research trends are also identified, which include considering predicted mean vote-based and occupant-based thermal comfort, modeling of occupant behavior, integrating power grid operations with building control, and combining different demand flexibility modes in the control design.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

A novel sub-pilot-scale direct-contact ultrasonic dehydration technology for sustainable production of distillers dried grains (DDG)

DDG is a major source of protein, calcium, phosphorus, and sulfur is arguably the most important byproduct of the bioethanol industry with increasing demand over the past few years. Reducing energy consumption in the DDG production process and energy recovery from DDG is vital for sustainable bioethanol productions. In this paper, a novel direct-contact multi-frequency, multimode, and modulated (MMM) ultrasonic dryer (US) was developed for the first time and has been applied in dehydration of wet distillers' grain (WDG). Ultrasonic drying (US) was combined with a convective airflow (HA) at different temperatures of 25 (room temperature), 50 and 70 °C to evaluate the impact of US, HA, and US + HA on drying kinetics, activation energy, chemical compositions, microstructure, and color of DDG. Semi-empirical kinetic models were developed and evaluating drying performances showed that the application of ultrasound significantly enhanced the drying rate and decreased the drying time (by 46%), especially at low drying temperatures. The activation energy for moisture removal in the presence of ultrasound was about 50% of that without ultrasound. The final dried distillers' grains product processed by ultrasonic drying had a brighter color, a higher available protein, a higher digestible protein (the lowest acid detergent insoluble crude protein), and a better surface profile with no compromise on minerals and fiber contents.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Contrast and Predictability of Island‐Scale El Niño Influences on Hawaii Wave Climate

Abstract The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences ocean wave activity across the Pacific, but its effects on island shores are modulated by local weather and selective sheltering of multi‐modal seas. Utilizing 41 years of high‐resolution wave hindcasts, we decipher the season‐ and locality‐dependent connections between ENSO and wave patterns around the Hawaiian Islands. The north and west‐facing shores, exposed to energetic northwest swells during boreal winters, experience the most pronounced ENSO‐related variability, with increased high‐surf activity during El Niño years. While the year‐round trade wind waves exhibit moderate correlation with ENSO, the basin‐wide climate influence is masked by locally accelerated trade winds in channels and around large headlands. The remarkable global‐to‐local pathway through the high‐resolution hindcast enables development of an ENSO‐based semi‐empirical wave model to statistically describe and predict severe wave conditions on vulnerable shores with potential application in coastal risk management and hazard mitigation for Pacific Islands and beyond.

Zhao, Sen [Department of Atmospheric Sciences Scho↗

DOE OSTI2019

Probing the Active Sites of MoS 2 Based Hydrotreating Catalysts Using Modulation Excitation Spectroscopy

The reactive surface sites of MoS 2 hydrotreating catalysts (unpromoted as well as Co- and Ni-promoted) supported on MgAl 2 O 4 spinel were investigated with respect to the substitution of sulfur by oxygen using in situ XAS coupled with modulation excitation spectroscopy (MES). Specifically, MES experiments were carried out by periodically cycling between a H 2 O and H 2 S containing hydrogen gas mixture at 400 °C. Due to the low fraction of S–O exchange, conventional XANES and EXAFS data hardly showed any changes when these catalysts were exposed to increasing ratios of H 2 O to H 2 S in an H 2 atmosphere. XANES and EXAFS data extracted at the Mo K-edge by MES analysis showed that for approximately 1% of the Mo atoms, sulfur atoms are replaced by oxygen atoms when exposed to H 2 O, causing partial oxidation of these active sites. The reaction is reversible and Mo returns to its initial sulfide phase when H 2 O is removed and H 2 S is supplied in the feed. In the case of Co- and Ni-promoted catalysts, the magnitude of S–O exchange was found to be reduced, indicating the beneficial effect of promotion. MES at the Ni K-edge showed that Ni was oxidized during H 2 O exposure, which in turn delayed the Mo oxidation in the Ni-promoted catalyst. The structures of these catalysts under S–O exchange were modeled using density functional theory (DFT) calculations, showing that the edge atoms are affected strongly. For all three catalysts, OH substitution is more favorable, while O substitution could be possible at high H 2 O pressure for unpromoted MoS 2 . Mo K-edge XANES spectra calculated using these simulated structures support the results obtained from the MES experiments. In conclusion, the presented approach using MES in combination with XAS and supported by DFT can be extended in general to catalysts under operando conditions and is thus a useful tool for determination of the active site on an atomic-scale.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2010

Agricultural Productivity Forecasts for Improved Drought Monitoring

Water stresses on agricultural crops during critical phases of crop phenology (such as grain filling) has higher impact on the eventual yield than at other times of crop growth. Therefore farmers are more concerned about water stresses in the context of crop phenology than the meteorological droughts. However the drought estimates currently produced do not account for the crop phenology. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have developed a drought monitoring decision support tool: The U.S. Drought Monitor, which currently uses meteorological droughts to delineate and categorize drought severity. Output from the Drought Monitor is used by the States to make disaster declarations. More importantly, USDA uses the Drought Monitor to make estimates of crop yield to help the commodities market. Accurate estimation of corn yield is especially critical given the recent trend towards diversion of corn to produce ethanol. Ethanol is fast becoming a standard 10% ethanol additive to petroleum products, the largest traded commodity. Thus the impact of large-scale drought will have dramatic impact on the petroleum prices as well as on food prices. USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) serves as a focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. WAOB depends on Drought Monitor and has emphatically stated that accurate and timely data are needed in operational agrometeorological services to generate reliable projections for agricultural decision makers. Thus, improvements in the prediction of drought will reflect in early and accurate assessment of crop yields, which in turn will improve commodity projections. We have developed a drought assessment tool, which accounts for the water stress in the context of crop phenology. The crop modeling component is done using various crop modules within Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). DSSAT is an agricultural crop simulation system, which integrates the effects of soil, crop phenotype, weather, and management options. It has been in use for more than 15 years by researchers, growers and has become a de-facto standard in crop modeling communities spanning over 100 countries. The meteorological forcings to DSSAT are provided by NASA s National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) datasets. NLDAS is a framework that incorporates atmospheric forcing and land parameter values along with land surface models to diagnose and predict the state of the land surface.

Limaye, Ashutosh↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Geostationary Fourier Transform Spectrometer

The Geostationary Fourier Transform Spectrometer (GeoFTS) is an imaging spectrometer designed for an earth science mission to measure key atmospheric trace gases and process tracers related to climate change and human activity. The GeoFTS instrument is a half meter cube size instrument designed to operate in geostationary orbit as a secondary "hosted" payload on a commercial geostationary satellite mission. The advantage of GEO is the ability to continuously stare at a region of the earth, enabling frequent sampling to capture the diurnal variability of biogenic fluxes and anthropogenic emissions from city to continental scales. The science goal is to obtain a process-based understanding of the carbon cycle from simultaneous high spatial resolution measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), carbon monoxide (CO), and chlorophyll fluorescence (CF) many times per day in the near infrared spectral region to capture their spatial and temporal variations on diurnal, synoptic, seasonal and interannual time scales. The GeoFTS instrument is based on a Michelson interferometer design with a number of advanced features incorporated. Two of the most important advanced features are the focal plane arrays and the optical path difference mechanism. A breadboard GeoFTS instrument has demonstrated functionality for simultaneous measurements in the visible and IR in the laboratory and subsequently in the field at the California Laboratory for Atmospheric Remote Sensing (CLARS) observatory on Mt. Wilson overlooking the Los Angeles basin. A GeoFTS engineering model instrument is being developed which will make simultaneous visible and IR measurements under space flight like environmental conditions (thermal-vacuum at 180 K). This will demonstrate critical instrument capabilities such as optical alignment stability, interferometer modulation efficiency, and high throughput FPA signal processing. This will reduce flight instrument development risk and show that the GeoFTS design is mature and flight ready.

Carbon exchanges↗

DOE OSTI2019

Testing the efficacy of active pressure management as a tool to mitigate induced seismicity

Manipulation of subsurface stresses through fluid injection/extraction may induce seismicity through modulation of overpressure along faults. Globally, most industrial operations do not induce significant earthquakes. However, the possibility of inducing moderate to large earthquakes is recognized as a significant risk for basin-scale carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage operations (Niass et al., 2017). One possible method to reduce the occurrence of induced seismicity is to maintain only small (or zero) fluid overpressure changes in the subsurface through extraction of formation brine. For active pressure management (APM), operators may employ different procedures including extraction of various brine volumes and different configurations of injection/extraction well locations. However, the impact each these operational procedures on induced seismicity must be understood in order to develop management strategies. Here, we describe a numerical modeling workflow to evaluate the efficacy of APM techniques, that when applied to a specific site may be used to inform operational management strategies. We couple the multiphase reservoir model, NUFT, with the earthquake simulator, RSQSim and simulate seismicity induced by CO 2 injection into a hypothetical brine saturated reservoir. Reservoir overpressure is modified by co-extraction of brine at various fractions of the injected CO 2 volume from five potential wells. Our goal is to understand how the well-pair configuration and the extracted brine volume impact the total number and the maximum event magnitude. Additionally, the performance of each scenario is also evaluated in terms of the volume of CO 2 that can be stored before an earthquake above a tolerance threshold is induced.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Reducing Uncertainty of Fielded Photovoltaic Performance (Final Technical Report)

Improved analysis and reporting of photovoltaic (PV) field performance increases the certainty of owners and financiers that systems will perform as expected. Advanced module technologies (e.g., PERC, HJT, and bifacial) introduce new degradation mechanisms and performance characteristics. The FY19-21 Reducing Uncertainty project leveraged data from the ever-increasing PV fleet to develop models and understanding of the field performance of existing and new technologies. Specifically, we accomplished: report on field performance and degradation rates for high-efficiency silicon (HJT, PERC, IBC) and more conventional technologies; developed automated analysis techniques to quantify system performance (performance ratio, energy yield) and production shortfalls (soiling, degradation, availability); refined the RdTools software toolkit to bring standard, validated analysis techniques to bear on third-party data; analyzed and reported on large datasets including Treasury data and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's Utility-Scale dataset to expand the high-quality degradation-rate histogram published previously; worked with industry partners and the DuraMAT data hub to enable private parties to share and aggregate PV production data anonymously, leveraging cloud-based data analysis infrastructure and publishing on US fleet-scale performance comprising over 7GW of operating systems. (https://www.nrel.gov/pv/fleet-performance-data-initiative.html). Through our industry collaborations we have engaged in NDA-covered data transfer with twelve PV fleet owners as of January 2022, with more agreements in negotiation. Our scalable cloud-based time series database contains over 30 billion rows (20TB) of PV time series data, representing over 1700 commercial and utility-scale systems, and over 7.2 GW of DC capacity (Fig 1). Initial field performance results have been distributed in several public reports. Because our fleet composition and data quality methods are continually improving, annual updates to these results are published to our PV Fleet webpage [ https://www.nrel.gov/pv/fleet-performance-data-initiative.html ] and DuraMAT data hub [DOI: 10.21948/1842958]. Another existing dissemination channel used for observed soiling losses is a map we maintain for soiling losses. Additional products developed include a report detailing fleet-wide performance index, availability, startup loss and snow loss factors, a detailed report on the 1603 grant dataset comprising over 100,000 PV systems with failure and performance details and a utility-scale report coauthored with LBNL on 31 GW of system performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Critical Review of the Circular Economy for Lithium-Ion Batteries and Photovoltaic Modules: Status, Challenges, and Opportunities

To meet net-zero emissions and cost targets for power production, recent analysis indicates that photovoltaic (PV) capacity in the United States could exceed 1 TW by 2050 alongside comparable levels of energy storage capacity, mostly from batteries. For comparison, the total U.S. utility-scale power capacity from all energy sources in 2020 was 1.2 TW (EIA 2022), of which solar satisfied approximately 3% (DOE 2021). With such massive scales of deployment, questions have arisen regarding issues of material supply for manufacturing, end-of-life management of technologies, environmental impacts across the life cycle, and economic costs to both individual consumers and society at large. A set of solutions to address these issues center on the development of a circular economy - shifting from a take-make-waste linear economic model to one that retains the value of materials and products as long as possible, recovering materials at end of life to recirculate back into the economy. With limited global experience, scholars and practitioners have begun to investigate circular economy pathways, focusing on applying novel technologies and analytical methods to fast-growing sectors like renewable energy. This critical review aims to synthesize the growing literature to identify key insights, gaps, and opportunities for research and implementation of a circular economy for two of the leading technologies that enable the transition to a renewable energy economy: solar PV and lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). We apply state-of-the-science systematic literature review procedures to critically analyze over 3,000 publications on the circular economy of solar PV and LIBs, categorizing those that pass a series of objective screens in ways that can illuminate the current state of the art, highlight existing impediments to a circular economy, and recommend future technological and analytical research. We conclude that while neither PV nor LIB industries have reached a circular economy, they are both on a path towards increased circularity. Based on our assessment of the state of current literature and scientific understanding, we recommend research move beyond its prior emphasis on recycling technology development to more comprehensively investigate other CE strategies, more holistically consider economic, environmental and policy aspects of CE strategies, increase leveraging of digital information systems that can support acceleration towards a CE, and to continue to study CE-related aspects of LIB and PV markets.

circular economy↗

DOE OSTI2023

Record-breaking 2020 summer marine heatwaves in the western North Pacific

Record-breaking marine heatwaves (MHWs) occurred in the western North Pacific during the summer of 2020. These unprecedented MHWs were consistent with favorable large-scale conditions that are linked to an anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), resulting mainly from sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the tropical oceans. In addition, a moderate La Niña-like pattern was also conducive to transporting warm seawater to the western North Pacific. Mixed-layer heat budgets suggest that surface heat flux contributed to the SST anomaly in the western subtropical Pacific. In contrast, oceanic heat advection dominanted in the South China Sea and the western equatorial Pacific. Numerical model experiments indicated that the tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies were responsible for the enhanced WNPSH. The increased zonal SST gradient across the tropical Pacific also played an important role. Inter-ocean interactions can modulate climate variability through ocean-atmospheric coupling and deserve more attention when predicting MHWs within the context of global warming. Additionally, it is critical to consider MHWs as a powerful tool in detecting acute, intense thermal stress events in the coral bleaching pre-warning system.

Coral bleaching↗

DOE OSTI2019

Overview of the recent experimental research on the J-TEXT tokamak

Recent J-TEXT research has highlighted the significance of the role that non-axisymmetric magnetic perturbations, so called three-dimensional (3D) magnetic perturbation (MP) fields, play in a fundamentally 2D concept, i.e. tokamaks. This paper presents the J-TEXT results achieved over the last two years, especially on the impacts of 3D MP fields on magnetohydrodynamic instabilities, plasma disruptions and plasma turbulence transport. On J-TEXT, the resonant MP (RMP) system, capable of providing either a static or a high frequency (up to 8 kHz) rotating RMP field, has been upgraded by adding a new set of 12 in-vessel saddle coils. The shattered pellet injection system was built in J-TEXT in the spring of 2018. The new capabilities advance J-TEXT to be at the forefront of international magnetic fusion facilities, allowing flexible study of 3D effects and disruption mitigation in a tokamak. The fast rotating RMP field has been successfully applied for avoidance of mode locking and the prevention of plasma disruption. A new control strategy, which applies pulsed RMP to the tearing mode only during the accelerating phase region, was proved by nonlinear numerical modelling to be efficient in accelerating mode rotation and even completely suppresses the mode. Remarkably, the rotating tearing mode was completely suppressed by the electrode biasing. The impacts of 3D magnetic topology on the turbulence has been investigated on J-TEXT. It is found that the fluctuations of electron density, electron temperature and plasma potential can be significantly modulated by the island structure, and a larger fluctuation level appears at the X-point of islands. The suppression of runaway electrons during disruptions is essential to the operation of ITER, and it has been reached by utilizing the 3D magnetic perturbations on J-TEXT. Finally, this may provide an alternative mechanism of runaway suppression for large-scale tokamaks and ITER.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Battery Energy Storage Scenario Analyses Using the Lithium-Ion Battery Resource Assessment (LIBRA) Model

Meeting aggressive carbon emission goals will entail widespread deployment of renewable sources of electricity. Because these sources are variable, there is a need to develop scalable energy storage technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy is supporting efforts to increase U.S. manufacturing and recycling capabilities for LIBs and to decrease costs of stationary storage batteries. Many factors influence the domestic manufacturing and cost of stationary storage batteries, including availability of critical raw materials (lithium, cobalt, and nickel), competition from various demand sectors (consumer electronics, vehicles, and battery energy storage), resource recovery (recycling), government policies, and learning in the industry, among other factors. Understanding how these factors interact and identifying synergies and bottlenecks is important for developing effective strategies for the LIB stationary energy storage system. We developed the Lithium-Ion Battery Resource Analysis (LIBRA) model as a tool to help stakeholders better understand the following types of questions: What are the roles of R&D, industrial learning, and scaling of demand in lowering the cost of battery energy storage system production? How do the intersections between the EV and stationary storage sectors affect the battery supply chain? For various stationary storage and EV penetration scenarios, what volumes of critical materials might be required and what role can resource recovery play? What does expected demand for both EVs and stationary storage portend for mineral resources and overall mineral scarcity? The LIBRA model is developed using a System dynamics (SD) modeling approach to represent interactions across the segments of the battery materials supply chain. System dynamics models can capture the complex interactions and feedback between the various system components that influence supply and demand. The LIBRA model is comprised of several interacting modules that represent specific portions of the LIB supply chain. The model tracks the buildout of the domestic LIB industry over time (2020 - 2050) and in the context of competing demands for raw materials, recycling, and markets for LIBs. The LIBRA model represents major systemic feedback loops and delays across the supply chain. This report provides a complete documentation for the LIBRA model, including model assumptions, data, scenario analysis results, and sensitivity analysis of the model's input space.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Magnetic Energy Dissipation and γ-Ray Emission in Energetic Pulsars

Abstract Some of the most energetic pulsars exhibit rotation-modulated γ -ray emission in the 0.1–100 GeV band. The luminosity of this emission is typically 0.1%–10% of the pulsar spin-down power ( γ -ray efficiency), implying that a significant fraction of the available electromagnetic energy is dissipated in the magnetosphere and reradiated as high-energy photons. To investigate this phenomenon we model a pulsar magnetosphere using 3D particle-in-cell simulations with strong synchrotron cooling. We particularly focus on the dynamics of the equatorial current sheet where magnetic reconnection and energy dissipation take place. Our simulations demonstrate that a fraction of the spin-down power dissipated in the magnetospheric current sheet is controlled by the rate of magnetic reconnection at microphysical plasma scales and only depends on the pulsar inclination angle. We demonstrate that the maximum energy and the distribution function of accelerated pairs is controlled by the available magnetic energy per particle near the current sheet, the magnetization parameter. The shape and the extent of the plasma distribution is imprinted in the observed synchrotron emission, in particular, in the peak and the cutoff of the observed spectrum. We study how the strength of synchrotron cooling affects the observed variety of spectral shapes. Our conclusions naturally explain why pulsars with higher spin-down power have wider spectral shapes and, as a result, lower γ -ray efficiency.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Deterministic Fabrication of Large-Area, High-Crystallinity Oxide Moiré Superlattices

Oxide twistronics extends moiré engineering beyond van der Waals materials, offering a promising platform for accessing emergent interfacial phenomena arising from the strong coupling of lattice, charge, and orbital degrees of freedom in complex oxides. However, deterministic fabrication of high-crystallinity oxide moiré superlattices over large lateral dimensions remains challenging due to the three-dimensional bonding network of oxides. Here, we demonstrate a scalable, generalized fabrication strategy that enables the formation of high-crystallinity oxide moiré superlattices with clean, chemically bonded interfaces and precisely controlled twist angles down to nominal values of 0.1°, achieving subdegree twist-angle accuracy across large contiguous lateral dimensions approaching the millimeter scale. Using NaNbO3 as a model system, we show that the resulting interlayer coupling drives pronounced structural reconstruction that modifies both the phase structure and ferroelectric domain configuration. Synchrotron-based X-ray 3D reciprocal space mapping reveals the emergence of a single-phase state in twisted bilayers, in contrast to the mixed-phase structure observed in single-layer membranes prior to twist assembly. The structural signatures are further consistent with gradual lattice rotation distributed along the thickness direction that may accommodate interfacial shear strain, distinct from reconstruction observed in van der Waals moiré systems which primarily occurs through in-plane stacking rearrangement. This collective lattice response is correlated with twist-dependent nanoscale electromechanical modulations observed by piezoresponse force microscopy. These results establish a scalable materials platform for oxide twistronics and support the implementation of twist-engineered functionalities in practical, macroscale device architectures.

Ghanbari, Reza [North Carolina State University (N↗

DOE OSTI2023

Human‐induced salinity changes impact marine organisms and ecosystems

Abstract Climate change is fundamentally altering marine and coastal ecosystems on a global scale. While the effects of ocean warming and acidification on ecology and ecosystem functions and services are being comprehensively researched, less attention is directed toward understanding the impacts of human‐driven ocean salinity changes. The global water cycle operates through water fluxes expressed as precipitation, evaporation, and freshwater runoff from land. Changes to these in turn modulate ocean salinity and shape the marine and coastal environment by affecting ocean currents, stratification, oxygen saturation, and sea level rise. Besides the direct impact on ocean physical processes, salinity changes impact ocean biological functions with the ecophysiological consequences are being poorly understood. This is surprising as salinity changes may impact diversity, ecosystem and habitat structure loss, and community shifts including trophic cascades. Climate model future projections (of end of the century salinity changes) indicate magnitudes that lead to modification of open ocean plankton community structure and habitat suitability of coral reef communities. Such salinity changes are also capable of affecting the diversity and metabolic capacity of coastal microorganisms and impairing the photosynthetic capacity of (coastal and open ocean) phytoplankton, macroalgae, and seagrass, with downstream ramifications on global biogeochemical cycling. The scarcity of comprehensive salinity data in dynamic coastal regions warrants additional attention. Such datasets are crucial to quantify salinity‐based ecosystem function relationships and project such changes that ultimately link into carbon sequestration and freshwater as well as food availability to human populations around the globe. It is critical to integrate vigorous high‐quality salinity data with interacting key environmental parameters (e.g., temperature, nutrients, oxygen) for a comprehensive understanding of anthropogenically induced marine changes and its impact on human health and the global economy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1981

Changes in cosmic ray propagation induced by corotating interaction regions

By simulating the trajectories for scatter free and diffusive propagation of relativistic cosmic rays in a model of the heliospheric magnetic fields containing a representation of corotating interaction regions (CIR's), it is found that, due to the large gradients associated with these compression regions, the motion is strongly affected and differs substantially from the predictions of current modulation theory. For positive (outward) northern hemisphere polarity, particles do not stream purely from high latitudes but can come from almost any latitude in the outer heliosphere; for negative polarity, many particles come along the current sheet (as predicted) but a second, equally important, population exists comprising particles that do not start on the current sheet but are brought to low latitudes by their interaction with CIR's. Thus, it is concluded that CIR's (and other large scale structures) cannot be ignored in analyses of cosmic ray modulation.

Gall, R.↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Scalable Real-Time Data Assimilation Framework for Predicting Turbulent Atmosphere Dynamics

AI-based foundation models like FourCastNet, GraphCast are revolutionizing weather and climate predictions but are not yet ready for operational use. Their limitation lies in the absence of a data assimilation system to incorporate real-time Earth system observations, crucial for accurately forecasting events like tropical cyclones. To overcome these obstacles, we introduce a generic real-time data assimilation framework and demonstrate its end-to-end performance on the Frontier supercomputer. This framework comprises two primary modules: an ensemble score filter (EnSF), which significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art data assimilation method, and a vision transformer-based surrogate capable of real-time adaptation through the integration of observational data. We demonstrate both the strong and weak scaling of our framework up to 1024 GPUs on the Exascale supercomputer, Frontier. Our results not only illustrate the framework's exceptional scalability on high-performance computing systems, but also demonstrate the importance of supercomputers in real-time data assimilation for weather and climate predictions.

Lu, Dan↗