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At least 919 records · Page 51

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NASA NTRS1993

Experimental analysis of computer system dependability

This paper reviews an area which has evolved over the past 15 years: experimental analysis of computer system dependability. Methodologies and advances are discussed for three basic approaches used in the area: simulated fault injection, physical fault injection, and measurement-based analysis. The three approaches are suited, respectively, to dependability evaluation in the three phases of a system's life: design phase, prototype phase, and operational phase. Before the discussion of these phases, several statistical techniques used in the area are introduced. For each phase, a classification of research methods or study topics is outlined, followed by discussion of these methods or topics as well as representative studies. The statistical techniques introduced include the estimation of parameters and confidence intervals, probability distribution characterization, and several multivariate analysis methods. Importance sampling, a statistical technique used to accelerate Monte Carlo simulation, is also introduced. The discussion of simulated fault injection covers electrical-level, logic-level, and function-level fault injection methods as well as representative simulation environments such as FOCUS and DEPEND. The discussion of physical fault injection covers hardware, software, and radiation fault injection methods as well as several software and hybrid tools including FIAT, FERARI, HYBRID, and FINE. The discussion of measurement-based analysis covers measurement and data processing techniques, basic error characterization, dependency analysis, Markov reward modeling, software-dependability, and fault diagnosis. The discussion involves several important issues studies in the area, including fault models, fast simulation techniques, workload/failure dependency, correlated failures, and software fault tolerance.

Iyer, Ravishankar, K.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Identification of lines in the satellite ultraviolet - The spectrum of Tau Scorpii

The method of wavelength coincidence statistics (WCS) is applied to the ultraviolet spectra of Tau Sco obtained by the IUE. No identifications of elements heavier than Zn were made. With the exception of Zn IV, all identifications had been previously made in an exhaustive study of Copernicus spectra by Rogerson and Ewell (1985). A comparison of the identifications made in the two studies is in very good agreement for those spectra rich in lines, where the WCS parameters indicate the strong presence of the species. Useful information is added by WCS in cases where species are only weakly, or arguably, present. It is shown that WCS is an important tool in the exploration of any complicated stellar spectrum, and even in the case of a spectrum that has been well studied by traditional methods, it adds important information.

Cowley, Charles R.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference on a Statistical Model of Sub-gridcolumn Moisture Variability Using High-resolution Cloud Observations : Sensitivity Tests and Results - Part II

Part I presented a Monte Carlo Bayesian method for constraining a complex statistical model of GCM sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution MODIS cloud data, thereby permitting large-scale model parameter estimation and cloud data assimilation. This part performs some basic testing of this new approach, verifying that it does indeed significantly reduce mean and standard deviation biases with respect to the assimilated MODIS cloud optical depth, brightness temperature and cloud top pressure, and that it also improves the simulated rotational-Ramman scattering cloud optical centroid pressure (OCP) against independent (non-assimilated) retrievals from the OMI instrument. Of particular interest, the Monte Carlo method does show skill in the especially difficult case where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach allows finite jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. In the example provided, the method is able to restore marine stratocumulus near the Californian coast where the background state has a clear swath. This paper also examines a number of algorithmic and physical sensitivities of the new method and provides guidance for its cost-effective implementation. One obvious difficulty for the method, and other cloud data assimilation methods as well, is the lack of information content in the cloud observables on cloud vertical structure, beyond cloud top pressure and optical thickness, thus necessitating strong dependence on the background vertical moisture structure. It is found that a simple flow-dependent correlation modification due to Riishojgaard (1998) provides some help in this respect, by better honoring inversion structures in the background state.

Monte Carlo Bayesian inference↗

DOE OSTI2024

A road map to cosmological parameter analysis with third-order shear statistics: III. Efficient estimation of third-order shear correlation functions and an application to the KiDS-1000 data

Context. Third-order lensing statistics contain a wealth of cosmological information that is not captured by second-order statistics. However, the computational effort it takes to estimate such statistics in forthcoming stage IV surveys is prohibitively expensive. Aims. We derive and validate an efficient estimation procedure for the three-point correlation function (3PCF) of polar fields such as weak lensing shear. We then use our approach to measure the shear 3PCF and the third-order aperture mass statistics on the KiDS-1000 survey. Methods We constructed an efficient estimator for third-order shear statistics that builds on the multipole decomposition of the 3PCF. We then validated our estimator on mock ellipticity catalogs obtained from N -body simulations. Finally, we applied our estimator to the KiDS-1000 data and presented a measurement of the third-order aperture statistics in a tomographic setup. Results. Our estimator provides a speedup of a factor of ∼100–1000 compared to the state-of-the-art estimation procedures. It is also able to provide accurate measurements for squeezed and folded triangle configurations without additional computational effort. We report a significant detection of tomographic third-order aperture mass statistics in the KiDS-1000 data (S/N = 6.69). Conclusions. Our estimator will make it computationally feasible to measure third-order shear statistics in forthcoming stage IV surveys. Furthermore, it can be used to construct empirical covariance matrices for such statistics.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

NASA NTRS2016

California Reservoir Inflow Projections Using a Hybrid EMD-Matalas Method

Inflow projections provide scenarios for future water availability and are integral to operational reservoir management. They can aid water practitioners in decision-making for conservation efforts, multiyear storage retention, managing flood risk, downstream water releases, and regional growth planning. However, conventional methods are often limited in terms of their ability to incorporate non-stationarity, long run persistence, and the cross-correlation of multiple series in a region. This research aims to address these issues with a hybrid approach that integrates Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) with the Matalas multisite generation method. Multiple long-run inflows were examined for the Shasta/Trinity Reservoirs and Oroville Reservoir of California. EMD is used to decompose each inflow series into a set of independent intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) that have different timescales and frequencies. These IMFs were grouped into intradecadal (less-than- 10-year average periodicity) and interdecadal (greater-than-10-year average periodicity) series for each site. The IMF projections at each site were then combined to produce replicates of the historical data. This preserves the correlation structure of the intra- and interdecadal components of the series. The hybrid EMD-Matalas method was compared to a traditional autoregressive lag-one model. Both methods were found to retain the statistical characteristics of the historical data. However, the EMD-Matalas method retained the multiyear wet and dry periods to a greater degree. This was examined by comparing the 5-year and 10-year sums from the traditional model with the hybrid EMD-Matalas model. An advantage of the EMD-Matalas method is the ability to explicitly incorporate modes of non-stationary long-run persistence often associated with large-scale climate drivers such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This contributes to scenario planning that may be particularly important for managing multiyear low flow periods.

inflow projections↗

DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time event reconstruction for Nuclear Physics Experiments using Artificial Intelligence

Charged track reconstruction is a critical task in nuclear physics experiments, enabling the identification and analysis of particles produced in high-energy collisions. Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful tool for this purpose, addressing the challenges posed by complex detector geometries, high event multiplicities, and noisy data. Traditional methods rely on pattern recognition algorithms like the Kalman filter, but ML techniques, such as neural networks, graph neural networks (GNNs), and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), offer improved accuracy and scalability. By learning from simulated and real detector data, ML models can identify and classify tracks, predict trajectories, and handle ambiguities caused by overlapping or missing hits. Moreover, ML-based approaches can process data in near-real-time, enhancing the efficiency of experiments at large-scale facilities like the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and Jefferson Lab (JLAB). As detector technologies and computational resources evolve, ML-driven charged track reconstruction continues to push the boundaries of precision and discovery in nuclear physics. In these proceedings, we highlight advancements in charged track identification leveraging Artificial Intelligence within the CLAS12 detector, achieving a notable enhancement in experimental statistics compared to traditional methods. Additionally, we showcase real-time event reconstruction capabilities, including the inference of charged particle properties, such as momentum, direction, and species identification, at speeds matching data acquisition rates. These innovations enable the extraction of physics observables directly from the experiment in real-time.

Gavalian, Gagik (ORCID:0000000267385457)↗

NASA NTRS1990

A method of classification for multisource data in remote sensing based on interval-valued probabilities

An axiomatic approach to intervalued (IV) probabilities is presented, where the IV probability is defined by a pair of set-theoretic functions which satisfy some pre-specified axioms. On the basis of this approach representation of statistical evidence and combination of multiple bodies of evidence are emphasized. Although IV probabilities provide an innovative means for the representation and combination of evidential information, they make the decision process rather complicated. It entails more intelligent strategies for making decisions. The development of decision rules over IV probabilities is discussed from the viewpoint of statistical pattern recognition. The proposed method, so called evidential reasoning method, is applied to the ground-cover classification of a multisource data set consisting of Multispectral Scanner (MSS) data, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and digital terrain data such as elevation, slope, and aspect. By treating the data sources separately, the method is able to capture both parametric and nonparametric information and to combine them. Then the method is applied to two separate cases of classifying multiband data obtained by a single sensor. In each case a set of multiple sources is obtained by dividing the dimensionally huge data into smaller and more manageable pieces based on the global statistical correlation information. By a divide-and-combine process, the method is able to utilize more features than the conventional maximum likelihood method.

Kim, Hakil↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multitaper Magnitude‐Squared Coherence for Time Series With Missing Data: Understanding Oscillatory Processes Traced by Multiple Observables

To explore the hypothesis of a common source of variability in two time series, observers may estimate the magnitude-squared coherence (MSC), which is a frequency-domain view of the cross correlation. For time series that do not have uniform observing cadence, MSC can be estimated using Welch's overlapping segment averaging. However, multitaper has superior statistical properties to Welch's method in terms of the tradeoff between bias, variance, and bandwidth. The classical multitaper technique has recently been extended to accommodate time series with underlying uniform observing cadence from which some observations are missing. This situation is common for solar and geomagnetic data sets, which may have gaps due to breaks in satellite coverage, instrument downtime, or poor observing conditions. We demonstrate the scientific use of missing-data multitaper magnitude-squared coherence by detecting known solar mid-term oscillations in simultaneous, missing-data time series of solar Lyman α flux and geomagnetic Disturbance Storm Time index. Due to their superior statistical properties, we recommend that multitaper methods be used for all heliospheric time series with underlying uniform observing cadence.

Astro-statistics techniques (1886)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Excited-state uncertainties in lattice-QCD calculations of multi-hadron systems

Excited-state effects lead to hard-to-quantify systematic uncertainties in lattice quantum chromodynamics (LQCD) spectroscopy calculations when computationally accessible imaginary times are smaller than inverse excitation gaps, as often arises for multi-hadron systems with signal-to-noise problems. Lanczos residual bounds address this by providing two-sided constraints on energies that do not require assumptions beyond Hermiticity, but often give very conservative systematic uncertainty estimates. Here, a more-constraining set of gap bounds is introduced for hadron spectroscopy. These bounds provide tighter constraints whose validity requires an explicit assumption about an energy gap. Exactly solvable lattice field theory correlators are used to test the utility of residual and gap bounds at finite and infinite statistics. Two-sided bounds and other analysis methods are then applied to a high-statistics LQCD calculation of nucleon-nucleon scattering at $m_π\sim 800$ MeV. Generalized eigenvalue problem (GEVP) and Lanczos energy estimators are compatible when applied to the same correlator data, but analyses including different interpolating operators show statistically significant inconsistencies. However, two-sided bounds from all operators are consistent. Under the assumption that the number of energy levels below $NΔ$ and $ΔΔ$ thresholds is the same as for non-interacting nucleons, gap bounds are sufficient to constrain nucleon-nucleon scattering amplitudes at phenomenologically relevant precision. Lanczos methods further reveal that energy-eigenstate estimates from previously studied asymmetric correlators have not converged over accessible imaginary times. Nevertheless, data-driven examples demonstrate why assumptions are required to draw conclusions about the natures of two-nucleon ground states at these masses.

Detmold, William [MIT, Cambridge, CTP]↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Statistical Descriptors of Composite Fiber Aggregation

This study introduces a method of characterizing fiber aggregation and resin rich regions in composite microstructures. Microscale models of representative elements (RVE) need to be indicative of the extend of clustering (i.e. close fiber-to-fiber interaction) and resin rich “pools” which may impact the overall strength and performance of a composite structure. This algorithm was used to evaluate different unidirectional 2-D microstructure scans, which will be compared to their manufacturing method or any special treatment processes. These cluster and pool scan statistics can be used as criteria to judge statistical equivalency of artificially constructed microstructures.

Statistics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Structured illumination for surface-resolved grazing-incidence X-ray scattering

Grazing-incidence (GI) scattering techniques are widely used to characterize thin films, offering high surface sensitivity and insight into morphology and structure. However, these approaches typically provide statistical averaged information due to elongated footprint or limited spatial resolution due to beam size. Here we introduce a method that combines structured illumination with GI X-ray scattering and leverages our computational imaging approach to resolve local structural details. We demonstrate that our method captures local features of an organic semiconductor thin film without the need for sample rotation as in tomography. The method expands GI techniques from statistical averaging to high-resolution imaging, thereby providing the capability for detailed analysis of local material properties, such as domain shape, orientation and polymorphism, which are critical for advancing material design towards more efficient and tailored materials.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1973

Nonstationary ascent wind analysis.

A statistical approach for computing launch vehicle response to inflight winds is presented. In the response analysis the zonal component of the ascent wind velocity is modeled as a nonstationary random process. Model parameters are computed by processing available measured wind data. Pertinent pitch plane response statistics are computed and their value in constructing fatigue load spectra for a reusable launch vehicle is demonstrated. A method for using the response statistics to estimate structural reliability is also discussed. The accuracy and the cost saving potential of the probabilistic structural dynamics approach are assessed by performing comparisons with digital simulation results.

Howell, L. J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Advanced data assimilation in strongly nonlinear dynamical systems

Advanced data assimilation methods are applied to simple but highly nonlinear problems. The dynamical systems studied here are the stochastically forced double well and the Lorenz model. In both systems, linear approximation of the dynamics about the critical points near which regime transitions occur is not always sufficient to track their occurrence or nonoccurrence. Straightforward application of the extended Kalman filter yields mixed results. The ability of the extended Kalman filter to track transitions of the double-well system from one stable critical point to the other depends on the frequency and accuracy of the observations relative to the mean-square amplitude of the stochastic forcing. The ability of the filter to track the chaotic trajectories of the Lorenz model is limited to short times, as is the ability of strong-constraint variational methods. Examples are given to illustrate the difficulties involved, and qualitative explanations for these difficulties are provided. Three generalizations of the extended Kalman filter are described. The first is based on inspection of the innovation sequence, that is, the successive differences between observations and forecasts; it works very well for the double-well problem. The second, an extension to fourth-order moments, yields excellent results for the Lorenz model but will be unwieldy when applied to models with high-dimensional state spaces. A third, more practical method--based on an empirical statistical model derived from a Monte Carlo simulation--is formulated, and shown to work very well. Weak-constraint methods can be made to perform satisfactorily in the context of these simple models, but such methods do not seem to generalize easily to practical models of the atmosphere and ocean. In particular, it is shown that the equations derived in the weak variational formulation are difficult to solve conveniently for large systems.

Miller, Robert N.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Improving statistical precision in Monte Carlo samples with negative weights via reweighting and uncertainty quantification

High statistical precision is critical for Monte Carlo (MC) samples in high energy physics and is degraded by negatively weighted events. This paper investigates a procedure to learn the relationship between the negative and positive weight distributions of any sample, allowing the reduction of statistical uncertainty by reweighting kinematically equivalent events with the same sign. A robust uncertainty quantification method is required for the practical application of such method. Two methods for the estimation of the reweighting uncertainty are developed: one at the event and another one at the final observable level. The latter method is strongly favored. The gains in statistical precision are then quantified. The method is demonstrated on Sherpa vector boson plus jets samples when using all generated events and when restricted to the signal region of a mock analysis. It is demonstrated to significantly reduce stochastic behavior in sparse MC samples while decreasing the overall uncertainty with a sufficiently well-known reweighting function.

Monte Carlo methods↗

NASA NTRS1983

Statistical mechanics of neocortical interactions - Dynamics of synaptic modification

A recent study has demonstrated that several scales of neocortical interactions can be consistently analyzed with the use of methods of modern nonlinear nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. The formation, stability, and interaction of spatial-temporal patterns of columnar firings are explicitly calculated, to test hypothesized mechanisms relating to information processing. In this context, most probable patterns of columnar firings are associated with chemical and electrical synaptic modifications. It is stressed that synaptic modifications and shifts in most-probable firing patterns are highly nonlinear and interactive sets of phenomena. A detailed scenario of information processing is calculated of columnar coding of external stimuli, short-term storage via hysteresis, and long-term storage via synaptic modification.

Ingber, L.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Field testing and validation of a low-cost MPC for demand flexibility for grid-interactive K-12 schools

K-12 school buildings account for the highest energy consumption within the public sector. Implementing advanced HVAC controls in grid-interactive K-12 schools could bring substantial economic advantages and grid flexibility. Our previous study demonstrated that a low-cost model predictive control (MPC) solution, which coordinates multiple packaged units, can enable demand flexibility without major hardware upgrades. However, a significant gap remains between academic pilots and market-ready scalable solutions. This paper extends the previous single-site pilot to a multi-site demonstration involving three school campuses (95 total units) through a commercial technology transfer process. Addressing the challenge of verifying performance with sparse field data, we present a new statistical approach using Bayesian methods to estimate the MPC’s effect on peak demand. Unlike traditional methods, this approach robustly quantifies uncertainty in non-normal, limited datasets. The results confirm the solution’s replicability, achieving a 21.6–38.9% reduction in HVAC peak demand (10.8–22.1% at the site-level) with > 98% probability across diverse locations. Finally, we document critical barriers to scaling software-as-a-service (SaaS) solutions–such as API instability and diverse legacy systems–and offer practical strategies to accelerate the commercial adoption of grid-interactive efficient buildings.

Ham, Sang Woo↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quantitative Infrared-to-Terahertz Nanospectroscopy of Semiconductors

Semiconductor technology now employs few-nanometer features, necessitating tools probing electronic properties on the same length scale. While the concentration of free charge carriers is routinely measured, the scattering rate remains challenging to access at the nanoscale. Here, we present ultrabroadband (5–50 THz) synchrotron infrared nanospectroscopy as a quantitative metrology tool for semiconductors. This technique can determine both the charge carrier concentration and scattering rate with percent-level accuracy, and it is inherently capable of ∼10 nm spatial resolution. We study silicon with different doping levels and confirm the method’s accuracy by statistical analysis and comparison with established far-field infrared spectroscopy. Near-field measurements systematically reveal charge-carrier concentrations ∼30% lower than far-field values, consistent with increased surface sensitivity and surface depletion. Our work establishes synchrotron infrared nanospectroscopy as a precise tool for quantitative nanoscale semiconductor characterization and paves the way toward all-optical characterization of surface depletion effects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing time integration for accurate recovery of shockwave interface location in radiography

We present simulations and experiments of time integrated radiographic imaging of a moving 1D shock wave front and a quantitative method for determining the statistical error in locating the shock front as a function of integration time and noise in the radiograph. We discuss the trade-off between increasing motion blur, which leads to decreased shock front location certainty, and increasing signal-to-noise, which leads to improved image quality with increasing integration time. We find an optimum integration time between a short integration time, where noise limits the error, and a long integration time, where motion blurring limits the error. This methodology can be used to tune experimental configurations to obtain the highest quality radiograph for a given experimental configuration.

Bremsstrahlung↗