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NASA NTRS2012

Probabilistic Simulation of Multi-Scale Composite Behavior

A methodology is developed to computationally assess the non-deterministic composite response at all composite scales (from micro to structural) due to the uncertainties in the constituent (fiber and matrix) properties, in the fabrication process and in structural variables (primitive variables). The methodology is computationally efficient for simulating the probability distributions of composite behavior, such as material properties, laminate and structural responses. Bi-products of the methodology are probabilistic sensitivities of the composite primitive variables. The methodology has been implemented into the computer codes PICAN (Probabilistic Integrated Composite ANalyzer) and IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures). The accuracy and efficiency of this methodology are demonstrated by simulating the uncertainties in composite typical laminates and comparing the results with the Monte Carlo simulation method. Available experimental data of composite laminate behavior at all scales fall within the scatters predicted by PICAN. Multi-scaling is extended to simulate probabilistic thermo-mechanical fatigue and to simulate the probabilistic design of a composite redome in order to illustrate its versatility. Results show that probabilistic fatigue can be simulated for different temperature amplitudes and for different cyclic stress magnitudes. Results also show that laminate configurations can be selected to increase the redome reliability by several orders of magnitude without increasing the laminate thickness--a unique feature of structural composites. The old reference denotes that nothing fundamental has been done since that time.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

NASA NTRS1989

An approximate methods approach to probabilistic structural analysis

A major research and technology program in Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) is currently being sponsored by the NASA Lewis Research Center with Southwest Research Institute as the prime contractor. This program is motivated by the need to accurately predict structural response in an environment where the loadings, the material properties, and even the structure may be considered random. The heart of PSAM is a software package which combines advanced structural analysis codes with a fast probability integration (FPI) algorithm for the efficient calculation of stochastic structural response. The basic idea of PAAM is simple: make an approximate calculation of system response, including calculation of the associated probabilities, with minimal computation time and cost, based on a simplified representation of the geometry, loads, and material. The deterministic solution resulting should give a reasonable and realistic description of performance-limiting system responses, although some error will be inevitable. If the simple model has correctly captured the basic mechanics of the system, however, including the proper functional dependence of stress, frequency, etc. on design parameters, then the response sensitivities calculated may be of significantly higher accuracy.

Mcclung, R. C.↗

DOE OSTI2022

DECOVALEX-2023, Task F Specification, Revision 8

This report is the revised (Revision 8) Task F specification for DECOVALEX-2023. Task F is a comparison of the models and methods used in deep geologic repository performance assessment. The task proposes to develop a reference case for a mined repository in a fractured crystalline host rock and a reference case for a mined repository in a salt formation. Teams may choose to participate in the comparison for either or both of the reference cases. For each reference case, a common set of conceptual models and parameters describing features, events, and processes that impact performance will be given, and teams will be responsible for determining how best to implement and couple the models. The comparison will be conducted in stages, beginning with a comparison of key outputs of individual process models, followed by a comparison of a single deterministic simulation of the full reference case, and moving on to uncertainty propagation and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. This report provides background information, a summary of the proposed reference cases, and a staged plan for the analysis.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS2020

Experimental Reexamination of Transverse Tensile Strength for IM7/8552 Tape-Laminate Composites

Due to the observed dependence of transverse-tensile strength, YT, on test geometry and specimen size, there is no consensus regarding a test method that can uniquely measure YT. This study reexamines characterization of YT by comparing results from established flexure tests with results from a new tensile test that exhibits consistent failure in the gage region. Additionally, the effects of surface preparation and direction of transverse fracture are investigated. Results show that YT is inversely proportional to specimen volume and surface roughness, and is insensitive to direction of transverse fracture. The relationship between specimen volume and YT is adequately captured by Weibull strength-scaling theory, except at the tails of the YT distributions. However, specimens exhibited microcracking prior to failure, which violates the “weak-link” assumptions of the Weibull theory. These findings highlight the challenges of using deterministic YT values in progressive damage analysis.

Arndt, Caitlin M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Report on the final panel discussion on computational aeroacoustics

Some important conclusions about future prospects for aeroacoustics in general, and for computational aeroacoustics in particular, that were reached in the course of the Final Panel Discussion of the Workshop on Computational Aeroacoustics held from 6 to 9 April 1992 by ICASE and NASA Langley Research Center are summarized by the panel chairman. Aeroacoustics must now be involved in interactions with computational fluid dynamics (as applied not only to deterministic flows but also to the statistical characteristics of turbulence), while additionally incorporating rigorous comparisons with experiment. The new Computational Aeroacoustics will press forward in two parallel ways. In one of them, CFD will be used to determine aeroacoustic source strengths, the associated radiation being derived by the Acoustic Analogy approach in one of its forms. In the other, a direct Computational Aeroacoustics will apply CFD techniques over a region extending beyond the flow field so as to include at least the beginnings of the acoustic far field. There are some particularly important areas of study, including rotor noise, boundary-layer noise, and the noise of supersonic jets, where it is strongly recommended that use of both methods is continued. On the other hand, important problems of the diffraction of radiation from aeroacoustic sources around complicated aircraft shapes will require the use of comprehensively Computational Aeroacoustics, while Acoustic Analogy methods seem better suited to estimating subsonic jet noise. The study of model problems to allow comparisons with experiment will be valuable in both lines of attack.

Lighthill, James↗

DOE OSTI2022

DECOVALEX-2023 Task F Specification (Rev. 9)

This report is the revised (Revision 9) Task F specification for DECOVALEX-2023. Task F is a comparison of the models and methods used in deep geologic repository performance assessment. The task proposes to develop a reference case for a mined repository in a fractured crystalline host rock (Task F1) and a reference case for a mined repository in a salt formation (Task F2). Teams may choose to participate in the comparison for either or both reference cases. For each reference case, a common set of conceptual models and parameters describing features, events, and processes that impact performance will be given, and teams will be responsible for determining how best to implement and couple the models. The comparison will be conducted in stages, beginning with a comparison of key outputs of individual process models, followed by a comparison of a single deterministic simulation of the full reference case, and moving on to uncertainty propagation and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. This report provides background information, a summary of the proposed reference cases, and a staged plan for the analysis.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

DECOVALEX-2023: Task F Specification (Revision 10)

This report is the revised (Revision 10) Task F specification for DECOVALEX-2023. Task F is a comparison of the models and methods used in deep geologic repository performance assessment. The task proposes to develop a reference case for a mined repository in a fractured crystalline host rock (Task F1) and a reference case for a mined repository in a salt formation (Task F2). Teams may choose to participate in the comparison for either or both reference cases. For each reference case, a common set of conceptual models and parameters describing features, events, and processes that impact performance will be given, and teams will be responsible for determining how best to implement and couple the models. The comparison will be conducted in stages, beginning with a comparison of key outputs of individual process models, followed by a comparison of a single deterministic simulation of the full reference case, and moving on to uncertainty propagation and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. This report provides background information, a summary of the proposed reference cases, and a staged plan for the analysis.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Planning Bias: Planning as a Source of Sampling Bias

Many data-driven planning methods are trained on data generated by planners. It is well known that many statistical learning methods are sensitive to sampling bias, and yet there has been little or no attention to planning as a sampling method and its role in introducing sampling bias into planner-generated training data. Recently, it has been demonstrated that A**,* in the presence of problems with variable heuristic error, prefers some solutions over other equally cost-optimal solutions. But, as we discuss in this paper, mitigation may not be as simple as resolving arbitrary tie-breaking by sampling from ties uniformly at random. In this paper, we formalize an intuition of planning bias. We focus on problems which output a single solution. Diverse planning only complicates the problem by generalizing it to bias in the set of sets; we show how it is subject to bias in the single solution. We make some useful observations about deterministic algorithms in contrast to non-deterministic algorithms. We explain how information entropy may be a good way to measure planning bias, and discuss some issues in evaluating practical approaches to measurement. We address the intuition that uniform random tiebreaking should mitigate bias; and sketch a novel approach to constructing an appropriate random distribution for duplicate detection during forward search for unbiased A*. Finally, we suggest directions for future work.

Planning Scheduling Algorithms↗

DOE OSTI2021

Pronghorn: A Multidimensional Coarse Mesh Application for Advanced Reactor Thermal-Hydraulics

This paper presents an overview of Pronghorn, a multiscale thermal-hydraulic (T/H) application developed by Idaho National Laboratory and the University of California, Berkeley. Pronghorn, built on the open-source finite element Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), leverages state-of-the-art physical models, numerical methods, and nonlinear solvers to deliver fast-running advanced reactor T/H simulation capabilities within a modern software engineering environment. This work summarizes the physical models, multiphysics and multiscale coupling, and numerical discretization in Pronghorn with emphasis on our initial target application to pebble bed reactors (PBRs). A diverse set of applications are shown to depressurized natural circulation in the SANA experiments, forced convection in the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor, three-dimensional (3-D)/one-dimensional coupling of Pronghorn and RELAP-7 systems T/H for loop analysis in the High Temperature Reactor Power Module, and forced convection in the Mark-1 Pebble Bed Fluoride-Salt-Cooled High-Temperature Reactor. A multiphysics coupling of Pronghorn, RELAP-7, and Griffin deterministic neutronics for a gas-cooled PBR demonstrates the capability of the MOOSE framework for reactor design calculations. These applications highlight the verification and validation underlying Pronghorn’s software development while emphasizing features that improve upon capabilities offered by legacy tools in areas such as 3-D unstructured meshing, physics modeling, and multiphysics coupling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design Under Uncertainty for Conceptual Aircraft Design Leveraging Analytical Gradients

The purpose of this paper is to extend previously demonstrated methodologies for design under uncertainty, leveraging analytical gradients to higher fidelity analysis for use in conceptual aircraft design. Previous work developed methods to generate analytical derivatives through polynomial chaos expansion, eliminating the need to estimate derivatives via complex step or finite difference. In this research, the authors build upon the methods to include physics-based aircraft design codes for aircraft design under uncertainty. This extends the previous work’s case study, which employed analytical aerodynamics and Breguet range estimations for wing design, to a higher fidelity level. In addition, this work extends previous work on interface development between the Uncertainty Quantification with Polynomial Chaos Expansion (UQPCE) software and Model-Based Systems Analysis and Engineering (MBSA&E) frameworks. This paper will discuss the development work necessary to perform multidisciplinary design under uncertainty as well as demonstrate the mechanics of interfacing UQPCE and conceptual aircraft design tools such as NASA’s Aviary code. In a case study, a conceptual aircraft design under uncertainty was conducted and compared against a traditional deterministic design. When given information about the uncertainty space from UQPCE, the optimizer was able to shape the output distribution and produce a more robust design

UQ↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design Under Uncertainty for Conceptual Aircraft Design Leveraging Analytical Gradients

UQ↗

DOE OSTI2019

Assessing the Dynamics and Complexity of Disease Pathogenicity Using 4-Dimensional Immunological Data

Investigating disease pathogenesis and personalized prognostics are major biomedical needs. Because patients sharing the same diagnosis can experience different outcomes, such as survival or death, physicians need new personalized tools, including those that rapidly differentiate several inflammatory phases. To address these topics, a pattern recognition-based method (PRM) that follows an inverse problem approach was designed to assess, in <10 min, eight concepts: synergy , pleiotropy , complexity , dynamics , ambiguity , circularity , personalized outcomes , and explanatory prognostics (pathogenesis). By creating thousands of secondary combinations derived from blood leukocyte data, the PRM measures synergic, pleiotropic, complex and dynamic data interactions, which provide personalized prognostics while some undesirable features—such as false results and the ambiguity associated with data circularity-are prevented. Here, this method is compared to Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and evaluated with data collected from hantavirus-infected humans and birds that appeared to be healthy. When human data were examined, the PRM predicted 96.9 % of all surviving patients while PCA did not distinguish outcomes. Demonstrating applications in personalized prognosis, eight PRM data structures sufficed to identify all but one of the survivors. Dynamic data patterns also distinguished survivors from non-survivors, as well as one subset of non-survivors, which exhibited chronic inflammation. When the PRM explored avian data, it differentiated immune profiles consistent with no, early, or late inflammation. Yet, PCA did not recognize patterns in avian data. Findings support the notion that immune responses, while variable, are rather deterministic: a low number of complex and dynamic data combinations may be enough to, rapidly, unmask conditions that are neither directly observable nor reliably forecasted.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

ClassNMSW- a real-time classification approach for non-recycled municipal solid waste using hyperspectral imaging

Real-time classification of non-recycled municipal solid waste (NMSW) is essential for efficient valorization. This study introduces ClassNMSW, a comprehensive framework for classifying 22 NMSW subclasses under industrial constraints by using hyperspectral imaging (HSI). A primary innovation of this work is the development of a variance-controlled spectral extraction algorithm. Unlike traditional methods that rely on simple averaging, this approach systematically investigates the extent of pixel extraction to minimize the loss of critical chemical information while maximizing data reduction thus ensuring high spectral fidelity with low computational cost. The approach developed in this work integrates automated, computer-vision-based background removal, eliminating the need for the manual thresholding common in current literature. To resolve ambiguities among chemically similar subclasses, a tiered classification and multi-camera fusion strategy (NIR17 and NIR22) is implemented. Results demonstrate that ClassNMSW achieves an object-wise weighted accuracy of 98.70% for single-sensor configurations and 100% under sensor fusion. A novel rolling-window strategy satisfies desired end-to-end latency of <2 s, satisfying the strict deterministic requirements of high-speed industrial sorting environments. The ClassNMSW framework provides a scalable foundation for advancing circularity and resource recovery in large-scale waste valorization operations.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging large language models to automate the identification of healthcare access barriers for veterans

Objective: To develop and evaluate an automated system for identifying healthcare barriers focusing on transportation issues in veterans’ clinical notes using large language models (LLMs) and to assess the impact of different prompting strategies on classification performance and explanation consistency. Methods: We developed a hybrid system combining pattern matching for templated notes with LLM analysis for free-text notes. Using 2000 manually annotated clinical notes, we compared four prompting strategies (dual-role short, dual-role long, analysis-first, analysis-only) across Mistral-7B and Llama-3.1 models. We evaluated classification performance using standard metrics and assessed explanation consistency through embedding similarity analysis. Results: The analysis-first strategy achieved superior performance, with Mistral-7B reaching an F1 score of 0.914, outperforming traditional machine learning approaches (GBM: 0.786, BERT: 0.811). LLMs demonstrated higher explanation consistency within models (mean cosine similarity 0.887–0.908) compared to cross-model similarities (0.767–0.872). Pattern matching successfully handled 6.7% of templated notes deterministically. Mistral-7B showed greater internal consistency but higher abstention rates compared to Llama-3.1. Conclusion: Requiring LLMs to analyze evidence before classification improves both accuracy and explanation consistency for identifying transportation barriers in clinical notes. This approach enables automated barrier detection at scale while providing clinically relevant explanations, supporting both population-level healthcare planning and individual patient care decisions.

Healthcare access barriers↗

DOE OSTI2022

Scaling CFB risers: Maintaining microstructure dynamics

Over the years there have been numerous approaches to develop a scaleup methodology for circulating fluidized beds. Many of these past approaches have relied on macroscopic definitions of similitude to define dimensionless groups such as Reynolds number, Froude number, density ratios, and dimensional ratios involving different length scales. These approaches have demonstrated various levels of success, but often fail when used outside the bounds of experimental datasets. The issue with these methods is that they rely on macroscopic similitude with the hopes that those conditions would provide microscopic similitude as it does in single phase systems where the Buckingham Pi techniques have given reasonable success. Two of the main reasons for failure are 1) changing fluidization regimes and 2) changing material properties that result in the material falling into a different Geldart group. Both are certain to change the microstructure (local instantaneous volume solids fraction) and changes to the microstructure affect the interphase transport properties of the reactor system, namely the mass transfer and heat transfer. Here, this work presents a new approach towards scaling based upon maintaining similitude at the microscale. It reviews a novel dimensionless flow regime map developed from analysis of the deterministic chaos parameters and higher order moments to ensure microstructure similitude. The work then examines four cases from the literature to assess the scaling approach used: (1) same particle-different scale risers for Geldart Group B particles, (2) Glicksman scaling of atmospheric circulating fluidized bed combustor, (3) same particle-different scale risers for Geldart Group A particles and (4) Glicksman scaling for pressurized gasification. General findings are that none of the scaling approaches produced directly applicable microstructure similar behavior based upon the chaotic and higher moment analysis. The positive take away is that the approach can define scale conditions that will provide similar microstructure that can be us to predict transport behavior.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic quantum Krylov protocol with double-factorized Hamiltonians

Here we propose a class of randomized quantum Krylov diagonalization (rQKD) algorithms capable of solving the eigenstate estimation problem with modest quantum resource requirements. Compared to previous real-time evolution quantum Krylov subspace methods, our approach expresses the time evolution operator e –i$\widehat{H}$$\tau$ as a linear combination of unitaries and subsequently uses a stochastic sampling procedure to reduce circuit depth requirements. While our methodology applies to any Hamiltonian with fast-forwardable subcomponents, we focus on its application to the explicitly double-factorized electronic-structure Hamiltonian. To demonstrate the potential of the proposed rQKD algorithm on near-term quantum devices, we provide numerical benchmarks for a variety of molecular systems with circuit-based state-vector simulators including the effects of sampling noise, achieving ground-state energy errors of less than 1 kcal mol -1 with circuit depths orders of magnitude shallower than those required for low-rank deterministic Trotter-Suzuki decompositions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS1975

Fatigue of notched fiber composite laminates. Part 1: Analytical model

A description is given of a semi-empirical, deterministic analysis for prediction and correlation of fatigue crack growth, residual strength, and fatigue lifetime for fiber composite laminates containing notches (holes). The failure model used for the analysis is based upon composite heterogeneous behavior and experimentally observed failure modes under both static and fatigue loading. The analysis is consistent with the wearout philosophy. Axial cracking and transverse cracking failure modes are treated together in the analysis. Cracking off-axis is handled by making a modification to the axial cracking analysis. The analysis predicts notched laminate failure from unidirectional material fatique properties using constant strain laminate analysis techniques. For multidirectional laminates, it is necessary to know lamina fatique behavior under axial normal stress, transverse normal stress and axial shear stress. Examples of the analysis method are given.

Mclaughlin, P. V., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Supersonic Quadrupole Noise Theory for High-Speed Helicopter Rotors

High-speed helicopter rotor impulsive noise prediction is an important problem of aeroacoustics. The deterministic quadrupoles have been shown to contribute significantly to high-speed impulsive (HSI) noise of rotors, particularly when the phenomenon of delocalization occurs. At high rotor-tip speeds, some of the quadrupole sources lie outside the sonic circle and move at supersonic speed. Brentner has given a formulation suitable for efficient prediction of quadrupole noise inside the sonic circle. In this paper, we give a simple formulation based on the acoustic analogy that is valid for both subsonic and supersonic quadrupole noise prediction. Like the formulation of Brentner, the model is exact for an observer in the far field and in the rotor plane and is approximate elsewhere. We give the full analytic derivation of this formulation in the paper. We present the method of implementation on a computer for supersonic quadrupoles using marching cubes for constructing the influence surface (Sigma surface) of an observer space- time variable (x; t). We then present several examples of noise prediction for both subsonic and supersonic quadrupoles. It is shown that in the case of transonic flow over rotor blades, the inclusion of the supersonic quadrupoles improves the prediction of the acoustic pressure signature. We show the equivalence of the new formulation to that of Brentner for subsonic quadrupoles. It is shown that the regions of high quadrupole source strength are primarily produced by the shock surface and the flow over the leading edge of the rotor. The primary role of the supersonic quadrupoles is to increase the width of a strong acoustic signal.

Farassat, F.↗