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At least 919 records · Page 51

Reconciling Assumptions in Bottom-up and Top-down Approaches for Estimating Aerosol Emission Rates from Wildland Fires using Observations from FIREX-AQ

Accurate fire emissions inventories are crucial to predict the impacts of wildland fires on air quality and atmospheric composition. Two traditional approaches are widely used to calculate fire emissions: a satellite-based top-down approach and a fuels-based bottom-up approach. However, these methods often considerably disagree on the amount of particulate mass emitted from fires. Previously available observational datasets tended to be sparse, and lacked the statistics needed to resolve these methodological discrepancies. Here, we leverage the extensive and comprehensive airborne in situ and remote sensing measurements of smoke plumes from the recent Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) campaign to statistically assess the skill of the two traditional approaches. We use detailed campaign observations to calculate and compare emission rates at an exceptionally high-resolution using three separate approaches: top-down, bottom-up, and a novel approach based entirely on integrated airborne in situ measurements. We then compute the daily average of these high-resolution estimates and compare with estimates from lower resolution, global top-down and bottom-up inventories. We uncover strong, linear relationships between all of the high-resolution emission rate estimates in aggregate, however no single approach is capable of capturing the emission characteristics of every fire. Global inventory emission rate estimates exhibited weaker correlations with the high-resolution approaches and displayed evidence of systematic bias. The disparity between the low resolution global inventories and the high-resolution approaches is likely caused by high levels of uncertainty in essential variables used in bottom-up inventories and imperfect assumptions in top-down inventories. Plain Language Summary Smoke emitted by wildland fires is dangerous to human health and contributes to climate change.To predict and evaluate the impacts of fires, we need to know how much smoke is emitted into the atmosphere. There are two state-of-the-art methods used to estimate the mass of smoke emitted by fires, but they often disagree. In this study, we use unusually detailed measurements collected using an aircraft that flew within wildland fire smoke plumes to calculate the amount ofsmoke emitted from fires in the Western United States. We compare emission rates derived from the exceptionally high spatial and temporal resolution approach to the two traditional, lower resolution approaches to understand why they sometimes diverge

E B Wiggins↗

A correlation polarimeter for noise-like signals

Optimum estimation (tracking) of the polarization plane of a linearly polarized electromagnetic wave is determined when the signal is a narrow-band Gaussian random process with a polarization plane angle which is also a Gaussian random process. This model is compared to previous work and is applicable to space communication. The estimator performs a correlation operation similar to an amplitude-comparison monopulse angle tracker, giving the name correlation polarimeter. Under large signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), the estimator is causal. Performance of the causal correlation polarimeter is evaluated for arbitrary SNR. Optimum precorrelation filtering is determined. With low SNR, the performance of this system is far better than that of previously developed systems. Practical implementation is discussed. A scheme is given to reduce the effect of linearly polarized noise.

Ohlson, J. E.↗

A spectral analysis of the earth's angular momentum budget

The exchange of angular momentum between the solid earth and the atmosphere from January 1976 through March 1982 is investigated using estimates of the earth's rotation from optical astrometry and lunar laser ranging and meteorological estimates of the atmospheric angular momentum M(atm). The physics of the earth's angular momentum budget is described, and earth rotation measurements are related to changes in the angular momentum of the fluid parts of the earth. The availability and reliability of earth rotation and M(atm) data are reported, and the possibility of estimating the exchange of angular momentum with the oceans and with the core is examined. Estimates of the power spectrum, cospectral coherence, and linear transfer functions and an analysis of the unmodeled part of the angular momentum budget are presented and discussed. The amplitude and phase of the semiannual, monthly, and fortnightly tidal variations in the length of day are estimated after removing observed atmospheric excitation.

Eubanks, T. M.↗

Evaluation of Long-Term Calibrations of the AVHRR Visible Radiances

Two systematic calibrations have been compiled for the visible radiances measured by the series of AVHRR instruments flown on the NOAA operational polar weather satellites: one by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), anchored on NASA ER-2 underflights in the 1980s and early 1990s and covering the period 1981-2009, and one by the PATMOS-x project, anchored on comparisons to the MODIS instruments on the Aqua and Terra satellites in the 2000s and covering the period 1979-2010 (this result also includes calibration for the near-IR channels). Both methods have had to extend their anchor calibrations over a long series of instruments using different vicarious approaches, so a comparison provides an opportunity to evaluate how well this extension works by cross-checking the results at the anchor points. The basic result of this comparison is that for the ''afternoon'' series of AVHRRs, the calibrations agree to within their mutual uncertainties. However, this retrospective evaluation also shows that the representation of the time variations can be simplified. The ISCCP procedure had much more difficulty extending the calibration to the ''morning'' series of AVHRRs with the calibrations for NOAA-15 and NOAA-17 exceeding the estimated uncertainties. Given the general agreement, a new calibration for all AVHRR visible radiances (except TIROS-N, NOAA-6, NOAA-19, and MetOp-A) is proposed that is based on the average of the best linear fits to the two time records. The estimated uncertainty of these calibrations is 63% absolute (scaled radiance units).

Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer↗

Estimating soil N 2 O emissions induced by organic and inorganic fertilizer inputs using a Tier-2, regression-based meta-analytic approach for U.S. agricultural lands

Consistent methods are essential for generating country and region-specific estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions used for reporting and policymaking. The estimates of direct N 2 O emissions from U.S. agricultural soils have primarily relied on the use of emission factors (EFs, Tier-1) and process-based models (Tier-3). However, Tier-1 estimates are relatively crude while Tier-3 calculations can be costly. This work addressed this gap by developing a Tier-2, regression-based approach by leveraging a meta-database containing 1883 field N 2 O observations together with environmental and management covariates from 139 studies. Our results estimated higher monthly soil N 2 O emissions (N 2 O m , kg N/ha) during the growing season (0.38) than the fallow period (0.15), highlighting the importance of considering measurement periods when utilizing meta-databases for analyzing N 2 O drivers. Significantly different N 2 O m were found for tillage practices (conventional > no-till: 0.42 > 0.27), fertilizer type (liquid > solid manure: 0.55 > 0.32), and soil texture (fine > coarse: 0.36 > 0.22). The comparisons of the influence of crop type and rotation, water management, and soil order on N 2 O emissions are complicated by regional data availability and interactions among different factors. Additionally, the finding that N 2 O emissions reported based on area (N 2 O m ), N input rate (EF), or yield can alter treatment rankings underscores the need to establish transparent criteria for rewarding or discouraging regionally-based management practices using N 2 O metrics. Finally, we show how General Linear Models (GLMs) can be used to estimate country and regional Tier-2 N 2 O m using a suite of covariates. Our GLMs identified tillage, water management, N input type and rate, soil properties, and elevation as the most influential covariates for the conterminous U.S. The limited accuracy of regional-scale GLMs, however, suggests the need to further improve the quality and availability of GHG and covariate data through concerted efforts in data collection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Application of Exactly Linearized Error Transport Equations to AIAA CFD Prediction Workshops

The computational fluid dynamics (CFD) prediction workshops sponsored by the AIAA have created invaluable opportunities in which to discuss the predictive capabilities of CFD in areas in which it has struggled, e.g., cruise drag, high-lift, and sonic boom pre diction. While there are many factors that contribute to disagreement between simulated and experimental results, such as modeling or discretization error, quantifying the errors contained in a simulation is important for those who make decisions based on the computational results. The linearized error transport equations (ETE) combined with a truncation error estimate is a method to quantify one source of errors. The ETE are implemented with a complex-step method to provide an exact linearization with minimal source code modifications to CFD and multidisciplinary analysis methods. The equivalency of adjoint and linearized ETE functional error correction is demonstrated. Uniformly refined grids from a series of AIAA prediction workshops demonstrate the utility of ETE for multidisciplinary analysis with a connection between estimated discretization error and (resolved or under-resolved) flow features.

Derlaga, Joseph M.↗

Deriving Three Dimensional Reservoir Bathymetry from Multi-Satellite Datasets

We evaluate different techniques that rebuild reservoir bathymetry by combining multi-satellite imagery of surface water elevation and extent. Digital elevation models (DEMs) are processed in two distinct ways in order to determine 3-D reservoir bathymetry. They are defined as (a) linear extrapolation and (b) linear interpolation. The first one linearly extrapolates the land slope, defining the bottom as the intersection of all extrapolated lines. The second linearly interpolates the uppermost and lowermost pixels of the reservoir's main river, repeating the process for all other tributaries. A visible bathymetry, resulting from the combination of radar altimetry and water extent masks, can be coupled with the DEM, improving the accuracy of techniques (a) and (b). Envisat-and Altika-based altimetric time series is combined to a Landsat-based water extent database over the2002-2016 period in order to generate the visible bathymetry, and topography is derived from the 3-arcsecHydroSHEDS DEM. Fourteen 3-D bathymetries derived from the combination of these techniques and datasets, plus the inclusion of upstream and downstream riverbed elevations, are evaluated over Lake Mead. Accuracy is measured using ground observations, and show that metrics improve as a function of added data requirement and processing. Best bathymetry estimates are obtained when the visible bathymetry, linear extrapolation technique and riverbed elevation are combined. Water storage variability is also evaluated and shows that best results are derived from the aforementioned combination. This study contributes to our understanding and representation of reservoir water impoundment impacts on the hydrological cycle.

HydroSHEDS↗

Harmonizing tau positron emission tomography in Alzheimer's disease: The CenTauR scale and the joint propagation model

Abstract INTRODUCTION Tau‐positron emission tomography (PET) outcome data of patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) cannot currently be meaningfully compared or combined when different tracers are used due to differences in tracer properties, instrumentation, and methods of analysis. METHODS Using head‐to‐head data from five cohorts with tau PET radiotracers designed to target tau deposition in AD, we tested a joint propagation model (JPM) to harmonize quantification (units termed “CenTauR” [CTR]). JPM is a statistical model that simultaneously models the relationships between head‐to‐head and anchor point data. JPM was compared to a linear regression approach analogous to the one used in the amyloid PET Centiloid scale. RESULTS A strong linear relationship was observed between CTR values across brain regions. Using the JPM approach, CTR estimates were similar to, but more accurate than, those derived using the linear regression approach. DISCUSSION Preliminary findings using the JPM support the development and adoption of a universal scale for tau‐PET quantification. Highlights Tested a novel joint propagation model (JPM) to harmonize quantification of tau PET. Units of common scale are termed “CenTauRs”. Tested a Centiloid‐like linear regression approach. Using five cohorts with head‐to‐head tau PET, JPM outperformed linearregressionbased approach. Strong linear relationship was observed between CenTauRs values across brain regions.

Neurosciences & Neurology↗

Integrating Solar Induced Fluorescence and the Photochemical Reflectance Index for Estimating Gross Primary Production in a Cornfield

The utilization of remotely sensed observations for light use efficiency (LUE) and tower-based gross primary production (GPP) estimates was studied in a USDA cornfield. Nadir hyperspectral reflectance measurements were acquired at canopy level during a collaborative field campaign conducted in four growing seasons. The Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI) and solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), were derived. SIF retrievals were accomplished in the two telluric atmospheric oxygen absorption features centered at 688 nm (O2-B) and 760 nm (O2-A). The PRI and SIF were examined in conjunction with GPP and LUE determined by flux tower-based measurements. All of these fluxes, environmental variables, and the PRI and SIF exhibited diurnal as well as day-to-day dynamics across the four growing seasons. Consistent with previous studies, the PRI was shown to be related to LUE (r2 = 0.54 with a logarithm fit), but the relationship varied each year. By combining the PRI and SIF in a linear regression model, stronger performances for GPP estimation were obtained. The strongest relationship (r2 = 0.80, RMSE = 0.186 mg CO2/m2/s) was achieved when using the PRI and SIF retrievals at 688 nm. Cross-validation approaches were utilized to demonstrate the robustness and consistency of the performance. This study highlights a GPP retrieval method based entirely on hyperspectral remote sensing observations.

cornfield↗

A Priori Tame Estimates in Sobolev Spaces for the Plasma–Vacuum Interface Problem

We study the free boundary problem for the plasma–vacuum interface in the case where the plasma density is strictly positive up to the boundary. For the linearized problem we derive the so-called tame estimates which can be used for proving the existence of solutions to the nonlinear problem by the Nash-Moser method.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The growth of Goertler vortices in compressible boundary layers

The linear instability of Goertler vortices in compressible boundary layers is considered. Using asymptotic methods in the high wavenumber regime, it is shown that a growth rate estimate can be found by solving a sequence of linear equations. The growth rate obtained in this way takes non-parallel effects into account and can be found much more easily than by ordinary differential equation eigenvalue calculations associated with parallel flow theories.

Hall, Philip↗

Discussion of band selection and methodologies for the estimation of precipitable water vapour from AVIRIS data

An Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data set acquired over Canal Flats, B.C., on 14 Aug. 1990, was used for the purpose of developing methodologies for surface reflectance retrieval using the 5S atmospheric code. A scene of Rogers Dry Lake, California (23 Jul. 1990), acquired within three weeks of the Canal Flats scene, was used as a potential reference for radiometric calibration purposes and for comparison with other studies using primarily LOWTRAN7. Previous attempts at surface reflectance retrieval indicated that reflectance values in the gaseous absorption bands had the poorest accuracy. Modifications to 5S to use 1 nm step size, in order to make fuller use of the 20 cm(sup -1) resolution of the gaseous absorption data, resulted in some improvement in the accuracy of the retrieved surface reflectance. Estimates of precipitable water vapor using non-linear least squares regression and simple ratioing techniques such as the CIBR (Continuum Interpolated Band Ratio) technique or the narrow/wide technique, which relate ratios of combinations of bands to precipitable water vapor through calibration curves, were found to vary widely. The estimates depended on the bands used for the estimation; none provided entirely satisfactory surface reflectance curves.

Schanzer, Dena↗

Mechanistic insights into heterogeneous methane activation

While natural gas is an abundant chemical fuel, its low volumetric energy density has prompted a search for catalysts able to transform methane into more useful chemicals. This search has often been aided through the use of transition state (TS) scaling relationships, which estimate methane activation TS energies as a linear function of a more easily calculated descriptor, such as final state energy, thus avoiding tedious TS energy calculations. It has been shown that methane can be activated via a radical or surface-stabilized pathway, both of which possess a unique TS scaling relationship. Herein, we present a simple model to aid in the prediction of methane activation barriers on heterogeneous catalysts. Analogous to the universal radical TS scaling relationship introduced in a previous publication, we show that a universal TS scaling relationship that transcends catalysts classes also seems to exist for surface-stabilized methane activation if the relevant final state energy is used. We demonstrate that this scaling relationship holds for several reducible and irreducible oxides, promoted metals, and sulfides. By combining the universal scaling relationships for both radical and surface-stabilized methane activation pathways, we show that catalyst reactivity must be considered in addition to catalyst geometry to obtain an accurate estimation for the TS energy. Here, this model can yield fast and accurate predictions of methane activation barriers on a wide range of catalysts, thus accelerating the discovery of more active catalysts for methane conversion.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Bias Reduction and Filter Convergence for Long Range Stereo

We are concerned here with improving long range stereo by filtering image sequences. Traditionally, measurement errors from stereo camera systems have been approximated as 3-D Gaussians, where the mean is derived by triangulation and the covariance by linearized error propagation. However, there are two problems that arise when filtering such 3-D measurements. First, stereo triangulation suffers from a range dependent statistical bias; when filtering this leads to over-estimating the true range. Second, filtering 3-D measurements derived via linearized error propagation leads to apparent filter divergence; the estimator is biased to under-estimate range. To address the first issue, we examine the statistical behavior of stereo triangulation and show how to remove the bias by series expansion. The solution to the second problem is to filter with image coordinates as measurements instead of triangulated 3-D coordinates.

robotics↗

Low thyroid function is not associated with an accelerated deterioration in renal function

Abstract Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is frequently accompanied by thyroid hormone dysfunction. It is currently unclear whether these alterations are the cause or consequence of CKD. This study aimed at studying the effect of thyroid hormone alterations on renal function in cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses in individuals from all adult age groups. Methods Individual participant data (IPD) from 16 independent cohorts having measured thyroid stimulating hormone, free thyroxine levels and creatinine levels were included. Thyroid hormone status was defined using clinical cut-off values. Estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) were calculated by means of the four-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formula. For this IPD meta-analysis, eGFR at baseline and eGFR change during follow-up were computed by fitting linear regression models and linear mixed models in each cohort separately. Effect estimates were pooled using random effects models. Results A total of 72 856 individuals from 16 different cohorts were included. At baseline, individuals with overt hypothyroidism (n = 704) and subclinical hypothyroidism (n = 3356) had a average (95% confidence interval) −4.07 (−6.37 to −1.78) and −2.40 (−3.78 to −1.02) mL/min/1.73 m2 lower eGFR as compared with euthyroid subjects (n = 66 542). In (subclinical) hyperthyroid subjects (n = 2254), average eGFR was 3.01 (1.50–4.52) mL/min/1.73 m2 higher. During 329 713 patient years of follow-up, eGFR did not decline more rapidly in individuals with low thyroid function compared with individuals with normal thyroid function. Conclusions Low thyroid function is not associated with a deterioration of renal function. The cross-sectional association may be explained by renal dysfunction causing thyroid hormone alterations.

Meuwese, Christiaan L.↗

System Identification Applied to Dynamic CFD Simulation and Wind Tunnel Data

Demanding aerodynamic modeling requirements for military and civilian aircraft have provided impetus for researchers to improve computational and experimental techniques. Model validation is a key component for these research endeavors so this study is an initial effort to extend conventional time history comparisons by comparing model parameter estimates and their standard errors using system identification methods. An aerodynamic model of an aircraft performing one-degree-of-freedom roll oscillatory motion about its body axes is developed. The model includes linear aerodynamics and deficiency function parameters characterizing an unsteady effect. For estimation of unknown parameters two techniques, harmonic analysis and two-step linear regression, were applied to roll-oscillatory wind tunnel data and to computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulated data. The model used for this study is a highly swept wing unmanned aerial combat vehicle. Differences in response prediction, parameters estimates, and standard errors are compared and discussed

Murphy, Patrick C.↗

New Algorithms for Estimating Spacecraft Position Using Scanning Techniques for Deep Space Network Antennas

As more and more nonlinear estimation techniques become available, our interest is in finding out what performance improvement, if any, they can provide for practical nonlinear problems that have been traditionally solved using linear methods. In this paper we examine the problem of estimating spacecraft position using conical scan (conscan) for NASA's Deep Space Network antennas. We show that for additive disturbances on antenna power measurement, the problem can be transformed into a linear one, and we present a general solution to this problem, with the least square solution reported in literature as a special case. We also show that for additive disturbances on antenna position, the problem is a truly nonlinear one, and we present two approximate solutions based on linearization and Unscented Transformation respectively, and one 'exact' solution based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Simulations show that, with the amount of data collected in practice, linear methods perform almost the same as MCMC methods. It is only when we artificially reduce the amount of collected data and increase the level of noise that nonlinear methods show significantly better accuracy than that achieved by linear methods, at the expense of more computation.

Metropolis-Hastings (MH)↗

Method and system for detecting a failure or performance degradation in a dynamic system such as a flight vehicle

A method and system for detecting a failure or performance degradation in a dynamic system having sensors for measuring state variables and providing corresponding output signals in response to one or more system input signals are provided. The method includes calculating estimated gains of a filter and selecting an appropriate linear model for processing the output signals based on the input signals. The step of calculating utilizes one or more models of the dynamic system to obtain estimated signals. The method further includes calculating output error residuals based on the output signals and the estimated signals. The method also includes detecting one or more hypothesized failures or performance degradations of a component or subsystem of the dynamic system based on the error residuals. The step of calculating the estimated values is performed optimally with respect to one or more of: noise, uncertainty of parameters of the models and un-modeled dynamics of the dynamic system which may be a flight vehicle or financial market or modeled financial system.

Miller, Robert H.↗