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Quantification of the effect of Cr-coated-Zircaloy cladding during a short term station black out
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Transient uncertainty quantification and Global Sensitivity Analysis of the open-source Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE) using GP-PCA surrogate models
Uncertainties in the thermophysical properties of molten salts impact both the steady-state and transient behavior of Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs). In this work, we aim to quantify the influence of such uncertainties on the transient operation of the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE), utilizing the open-source specifications provided for this reactor. Seven representative transient scenarios are considered. For each scenario, we evaluate the impact of thermophysical property uncertainties on four key multiphysics model output variables of interest (VoIs): maximum power density, maximum fuel temperature, maximum reflector temperature, and average fuel velocity magnitude. In addition, we perform a Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) by computing Sobol’ indices for the uncertain input parameters to determine their contribution to the variability of each VoI. Conducting GSA is computationally intensive due to the large number of required evaluations of the high-fidelity multiphysics model. To mitigate this cost, we develop a surrogate modeling framework that combines Gaussian Process (GP) regression with Principal Component Analysis (PCA), enabling efficient sample generation for the GSA. Our results show that for energy-related VoIs, thermal conductivity is the dominant contributor to uncertainty. In contrast, for flow-related VoIs, density and dynamic viscosity are the primary sources of uncertainty. The specific heat of the fuel salt was found to play a secondary role in the transient analyses.
Quantification of dissolved metals in high-pressure CO 2 -water solutions by underwater laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy
Underwater laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy has been employed for the measurement of dissolved metals (Mg, Ca, Sr, Ba and Mn) in high-pressure CO 2 -water solutions. The CO 2 pressure was varied over the range from 10 to 400 bars and the concentrations of Mg, Ca, Sr, Ba and Mn were determined by spectral analysis and establishing the calibration curves. Limit of detection (LOD) for Mg, Ca, Sr, Ba, and Mn at 10 bars were found to be 31.7 ppm, 2.5 ppm, 3.3 ppm, 4.4 ppm, and 10.5 ppm, respectively. The LOD for Mg, Ca, Sr, and Ba were unaffected by the pressure however, a 2-fold decrease in LOD of Mn was observed with an increasing pressure from 10 to 400 bars. The results demonstrate that low-ppm range concentrations of Mg, Ca, Sr, Ba and Mn can be precisely measured in CO 2 -charged water at varied pressure conditions by using underwater LIBS. The study has implications in monitoring of CO 2 leak in carbon sequestration.
Parallel multiple-chain DRAM MCMC for large-scale geosteering inversion and uncertainty quantification
Geosteering is the proactive control of a wellbore placement based on the downhole measurements, aiming at maximizing economic production from the well. We report the recent development of azimuthal resistivity logging-whiledrilling (LWD) tools have a much larger depth of detection, thus sets higher demands for geosteering inversion as more unknown parameters need to be taken into account in the earth model to be inverted. For complicated nonlinear problems, traditional deterministic inversion methods are more likely to be trapped near local optima. In general, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inversion methods are more capable of finding the global optimal solution and providing additional uncertainty analyses by sampling from the target distribution. However, MCMC methods usually have the problem of slow convergence. Even though optimization methods like delayed rejection (DR) and adaptive Metropolis (AM) were proposed to speed up the convergence, using MCMC methods to solve geosteering inversion problems may still incur unacceptable time cost. To reduce the sampling cost of MCMC methods, we use parallel multiple-chain DRAM MCMC methods to solve geosteering inverse problems and estimate the corresponding uncertainty. A clustering method, density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN), is applied to select the best solution among many results. Lastly, the simulation results show that running many relatively short MCMC chains for one problem can obtain a similar result as running a long single chain. Besides, avoiding communications between multiple Markov chains during the sampling process yields almost linear scalability.
Probabilistic forecast of nonlinear dynamical systems with uncertainty quantification
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Eigenvector continuation as an efficient and accurate emulator for uncertainty quantification
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Quantification of the 35 Cl($\textit{n, p}$) reaction channel
The evaluated 35 Cl($\textit{n, p}$) cross sections in the ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear data library remain uncertain because of the lack of measured data in the neutron energy range between 100-600 keV. In this energy region, the R-matrix analysis relies heavily on estimated ($\textit{n, p}$) partial widths and level density information. This resulted in significant differences of the evaluated cross sections and predicted reactivity in nuclear reactor applications with respect to previous nuclear data libraries. Here, we present a methodology to quantify the cross sections for the 35 Cl($\textit{n, p}$) reaction channel from the combination of measured total cross sections and model calculations.
A non-destructive method for crack quantification in photovoltaic backsheets under accelerated and real-world exposures
The long-term durability of photovoltaic modules is paramount for the continued growth of the industry. Polymer backsheets are of particular concern since they provide electrical insulation and an environmental barrier. In this paper, 23 freestanding, multilayer backsheets with nine unique material combinations underwent four different weathering exposures under accelerated and real-world conditions. Besides changes in color and gloss, the induced degradation included parallel or mudflat cracks on 11 backsheets, sometimes in combination with delamination or blistering. Similar degradation has been observed in previous studies and is concerning since cracks compromise the mechanical integrity and electrical safety of backsheets. Quantitative parameters are desirable to reliably classify categories of cracks and supply unbiased features for statistical analysis in predictive lifetime models. We developed an analysis technique that utilizes surface profilometry data to quantify the depth, width, area, spacing, and number of cracks. Parameters are automatically extracted from the raw data by an algorithm running on a high performance distributed computing cluster. Our algorithm excelled at characterizing parallel cracks with minimal de-adhesion, and only an estimated 4% of crack detections were false positives. The addition of humidity and temperature variation formed up to three times as many cracks on a photodose basis compared to dry, constant temperature exposures. Cracks in real-world and accelerated exposures propagated to similar depths with equivalent photodoses; however, the number of cracks formed in accelerated exposures was far greater on a photodose basis. Of samples that cracked, the best performing backsheet configuration was polyvinyl fluoride/poly (ethylene-terephthalate)/polyethylene (PVF/PET/PE) while the least durable was PET/PET/ethylene-vinyl acetate. Finally, none of the six PVF/PET/PVF backsheets cracked in any of the exposures.
Uncertainty quantification of fluidized beds using a data-driven framework
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PCA and Kriging for the efficient exploration of consistency regions in Uncertainty Quantification
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Analysis of laser focusing effect on quantification of LII images
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Stochiometric quantification of the thiol redox proteome of macrophages reveals subcellular compartmentalization and susceptibility to oxidative perturbations
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Quantification and evaluation of plastic waste in the United States
To develop viable solutions for reducing plastic waste, spatially explicit data on the management of these materials are critical. Here we employ statistical and geospatial methods to present a comprehensive assessment of plastic waste in the United States by resin type at the state, county, and local levels. Of the estimated 44 Mt of plastic waste managed in 2019 domestically, approximately 86% was landfilled, 9% was combusted, and 5% was recycled. Landfilled plastics represented significant losses to the country's economy in 2019: an average of US$7.2 billion in market value, about 3.4 EJ as embodied energy (equivalent to 12% of energy consumption by the industrial sector), and 1.5 EJ as an energy source (equivalent to 5.5% and 5% of energy consumption by the industrial and transportation sectors, respectively). Lastly, we posit that substantial amount of landfilled plastic waste could be recovered through advanced sorting, existing, and emerging recycling processes.
Uncertainty quantification for Multiphase-CFD simulations of bubbly flows: a machine learning-based Bayesian approach supported by high-resolution experiments
In this paper, we developed a machine learning-based Bayesian approach to inversely quantify and reduce the uncertainties of multiphase computational fluid dynamics (MCFD) simulations for bubbly flows. The proposed approach is supported by high-resolution two-phase flow measurements, including those by double-sensor conductivity probes, high-speed imaging, and particle image velocimetry. Local distributions of key physical quantities of interest (QoIs), including the void fraction and phasic velocities, are obtained to support the Bayesian inference. In the process, the epistemic uncertainties of the closure relations are inversely quantified while the aleatory uncertainties from stochastic fluctuations of the system are evaluated based on experimental uncertainty analysis. The combined uncertainties are then propagated through the MCFD solver to obtain uncertainties of the QoIs, based on which probability-boxes are constructed for validation. The proposed approach relies on three machine learning methods: feedforward neural networks and principal component analysis for surrogate modeling, and Gaussian processes for model form uncertainty modeling. The whole process is implemented within the framework of an open-source deep learning library PyTorch with graphics processing unit (GPU) acceleration, thus ensuring the efficiency of the computation. The results demonstrate that with the support of high-resolution data, the uncertainties of MCFD simulations can be significantly reduced. The proposed approach has the potential for other applications that involve numerical models with empirical parameters.
System risk quantification and decision making support using functional modeling and dynamic Bayesian network
Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success of control action, given the system status. This paper presents a systematic state transition modeling approach integrating dynamic probabilistic risk assessment with a decision-making process using a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) coupled with functional modeling. A functional model designed with multilevel flow modeling (MFM) technique was used to build a system state structure inferred by energy, mass, and information flow so that one can verify the developed model with respect to system functionality. The MFM model represents the causal relationship among the nodes, which captures the structure of process parameters and control units. Each node may have multiple possible states, and the DBN structured by the MFM model represents the time-domain transitions among the defined states. Furthermore, the MFM-DBN integrated state transition modeling is a white-box approach that allows one to draw the system's risk profile by updating the system states and supports the decisions probabilistically with physical inference. An example of a simple heating system has been used to illustrate this process, including decision-making support based on quantitative risk profile. For demonstrating its applicability to a complex system operational decision making, a case study of station blackout accident scenario leading to the seal loss of coolant accident in a nuclear power plant is presented. The proposed approach effectively provided the risk profile along time for each option so that the operators can make the best decision, which minimizes the plant risk.
Bayesian inverse uncertainty quantification of the physical model parameters for the spallation neutron source first target station
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