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NASA's Heliophysics Theory Program - Accomplishments in Life Cycle Ending 2011

NASA's Heliophysics Theory Program (HTP) is now into a new triennial cycle of funded research, with new research awards beginning in 2011. The theory program was established by the (former) Solar Terrestrial Division in 1980 to redress a weakness of support in the theory area. It has been a successful, evolving scientific program with long-term funding of relatively large "critical mass groups" pursuing theory and modeling on a scale larger than that available within the limits of traditional NASA Supporting Research and Technology (SR&T) awards. The results of the last 3 year funding cycle, just ended, contributed to ever more cutting edge theoretical understanding of all parts of the Sun-Earth Connection chain. Advances ranged from the core of the Sun out into the corona, through the solar wind into the Earth's magnetosphere and down to the ionosphere and lower atmosphere, also contributing to understanding the environments of other solar system bodies. The HTP contributions were not isolated findings but continued to contribute to the planning and implementation of NASA spacecraft missions and to the development of the predictive computer models that have become the workhorses for analyzing satellite and ground-based measurements.

Grebowsky, J.↗

Proton Conducting Neuromorphic Materials and Devices

Neuromorphic computing and artificial intelligence hardware generally aims to emulate features found in biological neural circuit components and to enable the development of energy-efficient machines. In the biological brain, ionic currents and temporal concentration gradients control information flow and storage. It is therefore of interest to examine materials and devices for neuromorphic computing wherein ionic and electronic currents can propagate. Protons being mobile under an external electric field offers a compelling avenue for facilitating biological functionalities in artificial synapses and neurons. In this review, we first highlight the interesting biological analog of protons as neurotransmitters in various animals. We then discuss the experimental approaches and mechanisms of proton doping in various classes of inorganic and organic proton-conducting materials for the advancement of neuromorphic architectures. Since hydrogen is among the lightest of elements, characterization in a solid matrix requires advanced techniques. We review powerful synchrotron-based spectroscopic techniques for characterizing hydrogen doping in various materials as well as complementary scattering techniques to detect hydrogen. First-principles calculations are then discussed as they help provide an understanding of proton migration and electronic structure modification. Outstanding scientific challenges to further our understanding of proton doping and its use in emerging neuromorphic electronics are pointed out.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Cosmological Hydrodynamics at Exascale: A Trillion-Particle Leap in Capability

Resolving the most fundamental questions in cosmology requires simulations that match the scale, fidelity, and physical complexity demanded by next-generation sky surveys. To achieve the realism needed for this critical scientific partnership, detailed gas dynamics must be treated self-consistently with gravity for end-to-end modeling of structure formation. Exascale computing enables simulations that span survey-scale volumes while incorporating key astrophysical processes that shape complex cosmic structures. We present results from CRK-HACC, a cosmological hydrodynamics code built for extreme scalability. Using separation-of-scale techniques, GPU-resident tree solvers, in situ analysis pipelines, and multi-tiered I/O, CRK-HACCexecuted Frontier-E: a four trillion particle full-sky simulation, over an order of magnitude larger than previous efforts. The run achieved 513.1 PFLOPs peak performance, processing 46.6 billion particles per second and writing more than 100 PB of data in just over one week of runtime. Frontier-E marks a significant advance in predictive modeling for next-generation cosmological science.

Frontiere, Nicholas [Argonne National Laboratory (↗

Dataset of solution-based inorganic materials synthesis procedures extracted from the scientific literature

The development of a materials synthesis route is usually based on heuristics and experience. A possible new approach would be to apply data-driven approaches to learn the patterns of synthesis from past experience and use them to predict the syntheses of novel materials. However, this route is impeded by the lack of a large-scale database of synthesis formulations. In this work, we applied advanced machine learning and natural language processing techniques to construct a dataset of 35,675 solution-based synthesis procedures extracted from the scientific literature. Each procedure contains essential synthesis information including the precursors and target materials, their quantities, and the synthesis actions and corresponding attributes. Every procedure is also augmented with the reaction formula. Through this work, we are making freely available the first large dataset of solution-based inorganic materials synthesis procedures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Snowmass2021 Computational Frontier White Paper: Cosmological Simulations and Modeling

Powerful new observational facilities will come online over the next decade, enabling a number of discovery opportunities in the "Cosmic Frontier", which targets understanding of the physics of the early universe, dark matter and dark energy, and cosmological probes of fundamental physics, such as neutrino masses and modifications of Einstein gravity. Synergies between different experiments will be leveraged to present new classes of cosmic probes as well as to minimize systematic biases present in individual surveys. Success of this observational program requires actively pairing it with a well-matched state-of-the-art simulation and modeling effort. Next-generation cosmological modeling will increasingly focus on physically rich simulations able to model outputs of sky surveys spanning multiple wavebands. These simulations will have unprecedented resolution, volume coverage, and must deliver guaranteed high-fidelity results for individual surveys as well as for the cross-correlations across different surveys. The needed advances are as follows: (1) Development of scientifically rich and broadly-scoped simulations, which capture the relevant physics and correlations between probes (2) Accurate translation of simulation results into realistic image or spectral data to be directly compared with observations (3) Improved emulators and/or data-driven methods serving as surrogates for expensive simulations, constructed from a finite set of full-physics simulations (4) Detailed and transparent verification and validation programs for both simulations and analysis tools. (Abridged)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Learning from learning machines: improving the predictive power of energy-water-land nexus models with insights from complex measured and simulated data

Focal Area(s): Insights gleaned from complex data (observed and simulated) using AI; Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components, including physics- and knowledge-informed models; Energy-water-land nexus and integrated energy systems – models of MultiSector dynamics. Science Challenge: Scientific communities are in need of tools for the computational integration of physics-based models, experimental data, and empirical/observational studies across a broad range of temporal and spatial scales to explore and meet EESSD grand challenges. We require AI algorithms for the discovery of process-drivers in the Earth-energy-human system and to link them with complex measured and simulated data. We aim to understand the energy-water-land nexus, particularly under extreme forcing scenarios and rare events, leveraging scale-aware AI process models, including probabilistic uncertainties, and benefiting from the emerging 5G-enabled landscape-scale sensing and edge computing capabilities. These models are needed to identify instabilities and tipping points that manifest extreme system behaviors with consequences for integrated energy systems and the environment. This work requires fundamental advances in uncertainty quantification, in particular, to identify and model unlikely but catastrophic outliers. Specifically, we need models that are interpretable to domain scientists and, essentially, explainable to public and private stake holders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Operation of the Planetary Plasma Interactions Node of the Planetary Data System

Five years ago NASA selected the Planetary Plasma Interactions (PPI) Node at UCLA to help the scientific community locate, access and preserve particles and fields data from planetary missions. We propose to continue to serve for 5 more years. During the first five years we have served the scientific community by providing them with high quality data products. We worked with missions and individual scientists to secure the highest quality data possible and to thoroughly document it. We validated the data, placed it on long lasting media and made sure it was properly archived for future use. So far we have prepared and archived over 10(exp 11) bytes of data from 26 instruments on 4 spacecraft. We have produced 106 CD-ROMs with peer reviewed data. In so doing, we have developed an efficient system to prepare and archive the data and thereby have been able to steadily increase the rate at which the data are produced. Although we produced a substantial archive during the initial five years, we have an even larger amount of work in progress. This includes preparing CD-ROM data sets with all of the Voyager, Pioneer and Ulysses data at Jupiter and Saturn. We will have the Jupiter data ready for the Galileo encounter in December, 1995. We are also completing the Pioneer Venus data restoration. The Galileo Venus archive and radio science data from Magellan will be prepared early in the next period. We are assisting the Small Bodies Node of PDS in the preparation of comet data and will be archiving the asteroid data from Galileo. We will be moving in several new directions as well. We will archive the PPI Node's first Earth based data with data from the International Jupiter Watch and Hubble data taken in support of Ulysses particles and field observations. We will work with the Cassini mission in archive planning efforts. For the inner planets we will begin an archive of Mars data starting with Phobos data and will support the US and Russian Mars missions in the late 1990's. We will restore the Mercury data from Mariner 10 and prepare the lunar data from Clementine in time for the lunar data analysis program in 1995. We will work with the Discovery mission teams to plan their archive and have already started with one, NEAR. Finally we will begin archiving our first heliospheric data from Voyager, Galileo, and Mars observers. We will continue to serve the science community by providing access to the data products. During the past 19 months we have filled nearly 6000 requests for on-line and CD-ROM data. The data delivered directly by the PPI Node has been - 5 x 10(exp 11) bytes. In addition to providing the data, we have provided users with software tools to manage and read the data which are computer, operating system and format independent. We have developed scalable systems so that the same software we use to manage and access the data for the entire PPI Node can be used by individual investigators to manage the data on a single CD-ROM, thereby greatly reducing the software development effort for both the PPI Node and users. We deliver this software with the disks. Recent technical advances have made it possible for us to serve a broader community than before. In the next five year period we plan to extend our outreach to the general public and in particular to increase our support for education. Since planetary plasma data are varied and require expertise in many areas the PPI Node will continue to be distributed. In addition to the primary node at UCLA, the PPI Node has three subnodes with an Outer Planets Subnode at the University of Iowa, an Inner Planets Subnode at UCLA, and a Radio Science Subnode at Stanford University. During the first two years of the renewal period there will be a Radio Astronomy Data Node at GSFC. These organizations will provide scientific expertise on the data, participate in node data selection activities and help with data restoration and mission activities.

Walker, Raymond J.↗

Can machine learning accelerate process understanding and decision‐relevant predictions of river water quality?

Abstract The global decline of water quality in rivers and streams has resulted in a pressing need to design new watershed management strategies. Water quality can be affected by multiple stressors including population growth, land use change, global warming, and extreme events, with repercussions on human and ecosystem health. A scientific understanding of factors affecting riverine water quality and predictions at local to regional scales, and at sub‐daily to decadal timescales are needed for optimal management of watersheds and river basins. Here, we discuss how machine learning (ML) can enable development of more accurate, computationally tractable, and scalable models for analysis and predictions of river water quality. We review relevant state‐of‐the art applications of ML for water quality models and discuss opportunities to improve the use of ML with emerging computational and mathematical methods for model selection, hyperparameter optimization, incorporating process knowledge into ML models, improving explainablity, uncertainty quantification, and model‐data integration. We then present considerations for using ML to address water quality problems given their scale and complexity, available data and computational resources, and stakeholder needs. When combined with decades of process understanding, interdisciplinary advances in knowledge‐guided ML, information theory, data integration, and analytics can help address fundamental science questions and enable decision‐relevant predictions of riverine water quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Study of Fluid Experiment System (FES)/CAST/Holographic Ground System (HGS)

The use of holographic and schlieren optical techniques for studying the concentration gradients in solidification processes has been used by several investigators over the years. The HGS facility at MSFC has been primary resource in researching this capability. Consequently, scientific personnel have been able to utilize these techniques in both ground based research and in space experiments. An important event in the scientific utilization of the HGS facilities was the TGS Crystal Growth and the casting and solidification technology (CAST) experiments that were flown on the International Microgravity Laboratory (IML) mission in March of this year. The preparation and processing of these space observations are the primary experiments reported in this work. This project provides some ground-based studies to optimize on the holographic techniques used to acquire information about the crystal growth processes flown on IML. Since the ground-based studies will be compared with the space-based experimental results, it is necessary to conduct sufficient ground based studies to best determine how the experiment worked in space. The current capabilities in computer based systems for image processing and numerical computation have certainly assisted in those efforts. As anticipated, this study has certainly shown that these advanced computing capabilities are helpful in the data analysis of such experiments.

Workman, Gary L.↗

Basic Research Needs for Catalysis Science to Transform Energy Technologies: Report from the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Basic Energy Sciences Workshop May 8–10, 2017, in Gaithersburg, Maryland

Energy technologies affect virtually every aspect of life in modern societies—including transportation, utilities, agriculture, medicine, and the availability of a myriad of consumer products—and depend on human ability to accelerate and to guide chemical transformations. Controlling these transformations, which occur in the microscopic world of atoms and molecules, forms the basis of countless technologies such as production of fuels, fertilizers, plastics, pharmaceuticals and much more. At the very core of these chemical transformations are catalysts—specialized and often highly complex types of matter that allow chemical reactions to occur rapidly and produce specific products. Catalysts also have the remarkable ability to perform their tasks millions of times without themselves being consumed. The discovery of inexpensive and widely-deployable energy and chemical technologies, and their underpinning catalysis science, is critical to ensure the economic viability of U.S. energy and chemical industries. Over the past decade, remarkable new tools have been discovered that allow the observation of catalytic transformations in exquisite detail, and assembly of novel and elaborate catalytic architectures with atomic precision. Furthermore, increasingly sophisticated theoretical and computational tools allow understanding of the essential details of the catalytic processes, and this overall progress has led to the discovery of catalysts with superior performance and the associated economic benefit. In the next decade and beyond, science promises to revolutionize how catalysts and catalytic processes are designed, to enable the introduction of new energy resources, to provide routes to sustainable synthesis of chemicals and other valuable materials, and to create novel approaches to chemical energy storage. This report is the result of the Basic Energy Sciences Workshop on Basic Research Needs for Catalysis Science to Transform Energy Technologies that was held in May 2017, and was attended by more than 100 leading national and international scientific experts. The attendees were organized into four panels: 1. Diversified Energy Feedstocks and Carriers, 2. Novel Approaches to Energy Transformations, 3. Advanced Chemical Conversion Approaches, and 4. Crosscutting Capabilities and Challenges: Synthesis, Theory, and Characterization. The workshop identified five priority research directions (PRDs) that are aimed at harnessing complexity in catalysis to create next-generation energy technologies and realizing efficient catalytic processes to increase the diversity of resources for production of chemicals and energy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Towards interpretable Cryo-EM: disentangling latent spaces of molecular conformations

Molecules are essential building blocks of life and their different conformations (i.e., shapes) crucially determine the functional role that they play in living organisms. Cryogenic Electron Microscopy (cryo-EM) allows for acquisition of large image datasets of individual molecules. Recent advances in computational cryo-EM have made it possible to learn latent variable models of conformation landscapes. However, interpreting these latent spaces remains a challenge as their individual dimensions are often arbitrary. The key message of our work is that this interpretation challenge can be viewed as an Independent Component Analysis (ICA) problem where we seek models that have the property of identifiability. That means, they have an essentially unique solution, representing a conformational latent space that separates the different degrees of freedom a molecule is equipped with in nature. Thus, we aim to advance the computational field of cryo-EM beyond visualizations as we connect it with the theoretical framework of (nonlinear) ICA and discuss the need for identifiable models, improved metrics, and benchmarks. Moving forward, we propose future directions for enhancing the disentanglement of latent spaces in cryo-EM, refining evaluation metrics and exploring techniques that leverage physics-based decoders of biomolecular systems. Moreover, we discuss how future technological developments in time-resolved single particle imaging may enable the application of nonlinear ICA models that can discover the true conformation changes of molecules in nature. The pursuit of interpretable conformational latent spaces will empower researchers to unravel complex biological processes and facilitate targeted interventions. This has significant implications for drug discovery and structural biology more broadly. More generally, latent variable models are deployed widely across many scientific disciplines. Thus, the argument we present in this work has much broader applications in AI for science if we want to move from impressive nonlinear neural network models to mathematically grounded methods that can help us learn something new about nature.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Toward GEOS-6, A Global Cloud System Resolving Atmospheric Model

NASA is committed to observing and understanding the weather and climate of our home planet through the use of multi-scale modeling systems and space-based observations. Global climate models have evolved to take advantage of the influx of multi- and many-core computing technologies and the availability of large clusters of multi-core microprocessors. GEOS-6 is a next-generation cloud system resolving atmospheric model that will place NASA at the forefront of scientific exploration of our atmosphere and climate. Model simulations with GEOS-6 will produce a realistic representation of our atmosphere on the scale of typical satellite observations, bringing a visual comprehension of model results to a new level among the climate enthusiasts. In preparation for GEOS-6, the agency's flagship Earth System Modeling Framework [JDl] has been enhanced to support cutting-edge high-resolution global climate and weather simulations. Improvements include a cubed-sphere grid that exposes parallelism; a non-hydrostatic finite volume dynamical core, and algorithm designed for co-processor technologies, among others. GEOS-6 represents a fundamental advancement in the capability of global Earth system models. The ability to directly compare global simulations at the resolution of spaceborne satellite images will lead to algorithm improvements and better utilization of space-based observations within the GOES data assimilation system

Putman, William M.↗

Photophoretic Propulsion Enabling Mesosphere Exploration NIAC Phase I Final Report

This Phase I report presents a comprehensive study on photophoretic flyers—innovative, ultralight, solar-powered vehicles that harness photophoretic forces generated via Knudsen pumping to achieve sustained flight in the mesosphere (50–80 km altitude). By integrating advanced materials such as nanocardboard— characterized by its extremely low areal density (~1 g/m²) and high bending stiffness—with ultrathin light-absorbing coatings, the project converts incident solar radiation directly into a directed thrust. Extensive experimental investigations, coupled with high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations using ANSYS Fluent, validate the concept across various three-dimensional geometries, including spherical, conical, and rocket-shaped configurations. These simulations bridge the gap between free-molecular and continuum flow regimes, demonstrating that optimized designs can generate lift forces sufficient to support kilogram-scale payloads even in low-pressure environments. At the heart of this innovation is the use of Knudsen pumping, where temperature gradients across porous surfaces induce directional gas flow, creating a modest overpressure that provides lift. The report introduces an analytical framework that interpolates between the well-known low-Reynolds number drag regime and the high-Reynolds number momentum theory. This model accurately predicts lift based on design parameters such as microchannel dimensions, porous wall geometry, areal density, and nozzle exit area. For instance, simulations indicate that 10-meter-scale structures with carefully engineered porous walls can achieve the necessary pressure differential to support scientifically significant payloads (~1 kg). The study also explores a hybrid propulsion approach that combines solar buoyancy with photophoretic lift. Initially, solar heating creates a buoyant force that elevates the flyer to mesospheric altitudes. Once in the optimal pressure range, the photophoretic mechanism—powered by Knudsen pumping—takes over as the primary source of lift, ensuring stable, long-duration flight. This dual-mode operation not only facilitates the deployment of photophoretic flyers but also broadens the potential applications for mesospheric exploration. In addition to propulsion, the report investigates the integration of photophoretic thrusters for trajectory control of existing research balloons in the upper stratosphere. By dynamically adjusting the nozzle orientation and controlling the flow-through velocity, these thrusters provide precise maneuverability, enabling the flyers to counteract atmospheric disturbances and adjust their flight paths in real time. For example, a photophoretic thruster approximately 7.5 by 7.5 meters in size could be unfolded below a payload gondola of a 60 million-cubic-foot zero-pressure balloon. Such a thruster can provide horizontal speed control of approximately 1 m/s using only sunlight and no moving parts (except those needed to track the Sun and control the jet direction). Importantly, photophoretic thrusters operate more efficiently at higher altitudes, which is complementary to known trajectory control techniques, such as propellers and tethered wings, which are more effective at lower altitudes. Finally, the report identifies three scientific research thrusts where mesospheric aircraft technology can have a profound impact: atmospheric tides, characterization of gravity waves, and investigation of mesospheric instabilities. Overall, the findings of this Phase I project represent a significant advancement in photophoretic propulsion technology. By demonstrating that large-scale, ultralight structures can be powered solely by solar radiation—via carefully engineered Knudsen pumping—this work lays a robust foundation for scalable, near-space flight architectures. Future refinements in material fabrication, structural optimization, and integrated trajectory control are expected to further enhance performance, paving the way for operational demonstrations that could revolutionize atmospheric science, remote sensing, and communication networks.

Knudsen Pump↗

Convolutional Neural Network–Aided Temperature Field Reconstruction: An Innovative Method for Advanced Reactor Monitoring

In this study, the capabilities of a physics-informed convolutional neural network (CNN) for reconstructing the temperature field from a limited set of measurements taken at the boundaries of internal flows are demonstrated. Such an approach enables the development of less invasive monitoring methods for real-time plant diagnostics. As a test case, a Molten Salt Fast Reactor (MSFR) design was selected. This circulating fuel reactor has received interest from both scientific and industrial communities due to its intrinsic safety and sustainability. Molten salt flows in such reactors, however, can present highly localized temperature peaks that can induce significant thermal stresses onto the vessel walls. At these local maxima, the salt temperature may exceed a thousand kelvins, which makes a direct measurement challenging or even unfeasible. The proposed CNN algorithm allows one to detect indirectly such discontinuities through an accurate, albeit indirect, temperature measurement method during reactor operation. The datasets employed to train and test the machine learning models in the present work were generated with Nek5000, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code developed at Argonne National Laboratory. The CNN algorithm is trained with CFD results that span a set of MSFR operational power and flow ranges. Here, to demonstrate the efficacy of the algorithm, predictions are made for test cases contained within the training range but for which the CFD data were not used when training. Results demonstrate that the proposed technique properly characterizes temperature peaks and distributions within the domain for a broad range of scenarios.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Study of FES/CAST/HGS

The microgravity materials processing program has been instrumental in providing the crystal growth community with an experimental environment to better understand the phenomena associated with the growing of crystals. In many applications one may pursue the growth of large single crystals which cannot be grown on earth due to convective driven flows. A microgravity environment is characterized by neither convection of buoyancy. Consequently superior crystals are able to be grown in space. On the other hand, since neither convection nor buoyancy dominates the fluid flow in a microgravity environment, then lesser dominating phenomena can affect crystal growth, such as surface driven flows or diffusion limited solidification. In the case of experiments that are to be flown in space using the Fluid Experiments System (FES), diffusion limited growth should be the dominating phenomenon. The use of holographic and Schlieren optical techniques for studying the concentration gradients in solidification processes has been used by several investigators over the years. The Holographic Ground System (HGS) facility at MSFC has been a primary resource in researching this capability. Consequently scientific personnel have been able to utilize these techniques in both ground based research and in space experiments. An important event in the scientific utilization of the HGS facilities was the TGS (triglycine sulfate) Crystal Growth and the Casting and Solidification Technology (CAST) experiments that were flown on the International Microgravity Lab (IML) mission in March of this year. The preparation and processing of these space observations are the primary experiments reported in this work. This project provides some ground-based studies to optimize on the holographic techniques used to acquire information about the crystal growth processes flown on IML. Since the ground-based studies will be compared with the space-based experimental results, it is necessary to conduct sufficient ground based studies to best determine how the experiment in space worked. The current capabilities in computer based systems for image processing and numerical computation have certainly assisted in those efforts. As anticipated, this study has certainly shown that these advanced computing capabilities are helpful in the data analysis of such experiments.

Workman, Gary L.↗

Virtual workstations and telepresence interfaces: Design accommodations and prototypes for Space Station Freedom evolution

An advanced human-system interface is being developed for evolutionary Space Station Freedom as part of the NASA Office of Space Station (OSS) Advanced Development Program. The human-system interface is based on body-pointed display and control devices. The project will identify and document the design accommodations ('hooks and scars') required to support virtual workstations and telepresence interfaces, and prototype interface systems will be built, evaluated, and refined. The project is a joint enterprise of Marquette University, Astronautics Corporation of America (ACA), and NASA's ARC. The project team is working with NASA's JSC and McDonnell Douglas Astronautics Company (the Work Package contractor) to ensure that the project is consistent with space station user requirements and program constraints. Documentation describing design accommodations and tradeoffs will be provided to OSS, JSC, and McDonnell Douglas, and prototype interface devices will be delivered to ARC and JSC. ACA intends to commercialize derivatives of the interface for use with computer systems developed for scientific visualization and system simulation.

Mcgreevy, Michael W.↗

Averting Denver Airports on a Chip

As a result of recent advances in software engineering capabilities, we are now in a more stable environment. De-facto hardware and software standards are emerging. Work on software architecture and design patterns signals a consensus on the importance of early system-level design decisions, and agreements on the uses of certain paradigmatic software structures. We now routinely build systems that would have been risky or infeasible a few years ago. Unfortunately, technological developments threaten to destabilize software design again. Systems designed around novel computing and peripheral devices will spark ambitious new projects that will stress current software design and engineering capabilities. Micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) and related technologies provide the physical basis for new systems with the potential to produce this kind of destabilizing effect. One important response to anticipated software engineering and design difficulties is carefully directed engineering-scientific research. Two specific problems meriting substantial research attention are: A lack of sufficient means to build software systems by generating, extending, specializing, and integrating large-scale reusable components; and a lack of adequate computational and analytic tools to extend and aid engineers in maintaining intellectual control over complex software designs.

Sullivan, Kevin J.↗

Real-Time Detection of Dust Devils from Pressure Readings

A method for real-time detection of dust devils at a given location is based on identifying the abrupt, temporary decreases in atmospheric pressure that are characteristic of dust devils as they travel through that location. The method was conceived for use in a study of dust devils on the Martian surface, where bandwidth limitations encourage the transmission of only those blocks of data that are most likely to contain information about features of interest, such as dust devils. The method, which is a form of intelligent data compression, could readily be adapted to use for the same purpose in scientific investigation of dust devils on Earth. In this method, the readings of an atmospheric- pressure sensor are repeatedly digitized, recorded, and processed by an algorithm that looks for extreme deviations from a continually updated model of the current pressure environment. The question in formulating the algorithm is how to model current normal observations and what minimum magnitude deviation can be considered sufficiently anomalous as to indicate the presence of a dust devil. There is no single, simple answer to this question: any answer necessarily entails a compromise between false detections and misses. For the original Mars application, the answer was sought through analysis of sliding time windows of digitized pressure readings. Windows of 5-, 10-, and 15-minute durations were considered. The windows were advanced in increments of 30 seconds. Increments of other sizes can also be used, but computational cost increases as the increment decreases and analysis is performed more frequently. Pressure models were defined using a polynomial fit to the data within the windows. For example, the figure depicts pressure readings from a 10-minute window wherein the model was defined by a third-degree polynomial fit to the readings and dust devils were identified as negative deviations larger than both 3 standard deviations (from the mean) and 0.05 mbar in magnitude. An algorithm embodying the detection scheme of this example was found to yield a miss rate of just 8 percent and a false-detection rate of 57 percent when evaluated on historical pressure-sensor data collected by the Mars Pathfinder lander. Since dust devils occur infrequently over the course of a mission, prioritizing observations that contain successful detections could greatly conserve bandwidth allocated to a given mission. This technique can be used on future Mars landers and rovers, such as Mars Phoenix and the Mars Science Laboratory.

Wagstaff, Kiri↗