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Results for “Distributed Estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 937 records · Page 52
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1991

The distribution of particulate material on Mars

The surface materials on Mars were extensively studied using a variety of spacecraft and Earth-based remote sensing observations. These measurements include: (1) diurnal thermal measurements, used to determine average particle size, rock abundance, and the presence of crusts; (2) radar observations, used to estimate the surface slope distributions, wavelength scale roughness, and density; (3) radio emission observations, used to estimate subsurface density; (4) broadband albedo measurements, used to study the time variation of surface brightness and dust deposition and removal; and (5) color observations, used to infer composition, mixing, and the presence of crusts. Remote sensing observations generally require some degree of modeling to interpret, making them more difficult to interpret than direct observations from the surface. They do, however, provide a means for examining the surface properties over the entire planet and a means of sampling varying depths within the regolith. Albedo and color observations only indicate the properties of the upper-most few microns, but are very sensitive to thin, sometimes emphemeral dust coatings. Thermal observations sample the upper skin depth, generally 2 to 10 cm. Rock abundance measurements give an indirect indication of surface mantling, where the absence of rocks suggests mantles of several meters. Finally, radar and radio emission data can penetrate several meters into the surface, providing an estimate of subsurface density and roughness.

Christensen, Philip R.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Sample Complexity of Power System State Estimation Using Matrix Completion

In this paper, we propose an analytical framework to quantify the amount of data samples needed to obtain accurate state estimation in a power system - a problem known as sample complexity analysis in computer science. Motivated by the increasing adoption of distributed energy resources into the distribution-level grids, it becomes imperative to estimate the state of distribution grids in order to ensure stable operation. Traditional power system state estimation techniques mainly focus on the transmission network which involve solving an overdetermined system and eliminating bad data. However, distribution networks are typically underdetermined due to the large number of connection points and high cost of pervasive installation of measurement devices. In this paper, we consider the recently proposed state-estimation method for underdetermined systems that is based on matrix completion. In particular, a constrained matrix completion algorithm was proposed, wherein the standard matrix completion problem is augmented with additional equality constraints representing the physics (namely power-flow constraints). We analyze the sample complexity of this general method by proving an upper bound on the sample complexity that depends directly on the properties of these constraints that can lower number of needed samples as compared to the unconstrained problem. To demonstrate the improvement that the constraints add to state estimation, we test the method on a 141-bus distribution network case study and compare it to the traditional least squares minimization state estimation method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2019

Exact and efficient hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm for accelerated Bayesian inference of gene expression models from snapshots of single-cell transcripts

Single cells exhibit a significant amount of variability in transcript levels, which arises from slow, stochastic transitions between gene expression states. Elucidating the nature of these states and understanding how transition rates are affected by different regulatory mechanisms require state-of-the-art methods to infer underlying models of gene expression from single cell data. A Bayesian approach to statistical inference is the most suitable method for model selection and uncertainty quantification of kinetic parameters using small data sets. However, this approach is impractical because current algorithms are too slow to handle typical models of gene expression. To solve this problem, we first show that time-dependent mRNA distributions of discrete-state models of gene expression are dynamic Poisson mixtures, whose mixing kernels are characterized by a piecewise deterministic Markov process. Here, we combined this analytical result with a kinetic Monte Carlo algorithm to create a hybrid numerical method that accelerates the calculation of time-dependent mRNA distributions by 1000-fold compared to current methods. We then integrated the hybrid algorithm into an existing Monte Carlo sampler to estimate the Bayesian posterior distribution of many different, competing models in a reasonable amount of time. We demonstrate that kinetic parameters can be reasonably constrained for modestly sampled data sets if the model is known a priori. If there are many competing models, Bayesian evidence can rigorously quantify the likelihood of a model relative to other models from the data. We demonstrate that Bayesian evidence selects the true model and outperforms approximate metrics typically used for model selection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating reaction parameters in mechanism-enabled population balance models of nanoparticle size distributions: A Bayesian inverse problem approach

In order to quantitatively predict nano- as well as other particle-size distributions, one needs to have both a mathematical model and estimates of the parameters that appear in these models. Here, we show how one can use Bayesian inversion to obtain statistical estimates for the parameters that appear in recently derived mechanism-enabled population balance models (ME-PBM) of nanoparticle growth. The Bayesian approach addresses the question of “how well do we know our parameters, along with their uncertainties?.” The results reveal that Bayesian inversion statistical analysis on an example, prototype $\mathrm{lr(0)_n}$ nanoparticle formation system allows one to estimate not just the most likely rate constants and other parameter values, but also their SDs, confidence intervals, and other statistical information. Moreover, knowing the reliability of the mechanistic model's parameters in turn helps inform one about the reliability of the proposed mechanism, as well as the reliability of its predictions. Importantly, the paper can also be seen as a tutorial with the additional goal of achieving a “Gold Standard” Bayesian inversion ME-PBM benchmark that others can use as a control to check their own use of this methodology for other systems of interest throughout nature. Overall, the results provide strong support for the hypothesis that there is substantial value in using a Bayesian inversion methodology for parameter estimation in particle formation systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1985

Gamma-ray line emission from Al-26 produced by Wolf-Rayet stars

The recent satellite observations of the 1.8 MeV line from the decay of Al-26 has given a new impetus to the study of the nucleosynthesis of Al-26. The production and ejection of Al-26 by massive mass-losing stars (Of and WR stars) is discussed in the light of recent stellar models. The longitude distribution of the Al-26 gamma ray line emission produced by the galactic collection of WR stars is derived based on various estimates of their radial distribution. This longitude profile provides: (1) a specific signature of massive stars on the background of other potential Al-26 sources, as novae, supernovae, certain red giants and possibly AGB stars; and (2) a possible tool to improve the data analysis of the HEAO 3 and SMM experiments.

Prantzos, N.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Challenging a Global Land Surface Model in a Local Socio-Environmental System

Land surface models (LSMs) predict how terrestrial fluxes of carbon, water, and energy change with abiotic drivers to inform the other components of Earth system models. Here, we focus on a single human-dominated watershed in southwestern Michigan, USA. We compare multiple processes in a commonly used LSM, the Community Land Model (CLM), to observational data at the single grid cell scale. For model inputs, we show correlations (Pearson’s R) ranging from 0.46 to 0.81 for annual temperature and precipitation, but a substantial mismatch between land cover distributions and their changes over time, with CLM correctly representing total agricultural area, but assuming large areas of natural grasslands where forests grow in reality. For CLM processes (outputs), seasonal changes in leaf area index (LAI; phenology) do not track satellite estimates well, and peak LAI in CLM is nearly double the satellite record (5.1 versus 2.8). Estimates of greenness and productivity, however, are more similar between CLM and observations. Summer soil moisture tracks in timing but not magnitude. Land surface reflectance (albedo) shows significant positive correlations in the winter, but not in the summer. Looking forward, key areas for model improvement include land cover distribution estimates, phenology algorithms, summertime radiative transfer modelling, and plant stress responses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Power Network State Estimation with Asynchronous Measurements

The operation of distribution networks is becoming increasingly volatile, due to fast variations of renewables and, hence, net-loading conditions. To perform a reliable state estimation under these conditions, this paper considers the case where measurements from meters, phasor measurement units, and distributed energy resources are collected and processed in real time to produce estimates of the state at a fast time scale. Streams of measurements collected in real time and at heterogenous rates render the underlying processing asynchronous, and poses severe strains on workhorse state estimation algorithms. In this work, a real-time state estimation algorithm is proposed, where data are processed on the fly. Starting from a regularized least-squares model, and leveraging appropriate linear models, the proposed scheme boils down to a linear dynamical system where the state is updated based on the previous estimate and on the measurement gathered from a few available sensors. The estimation error is shown to be always bounded under mild condition. Numerical simulations are provided to corroborate the analytical findings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1983

Micromechanically Based Constitutive Relations for Polycrystalline Solids

A basic method to estimate the overall mechanical response of solids which contain periodically distributed defects is presented. The method estimates the shape and growth pattern of voids periodically distributed over the grain boundaries in a viscous matrix. The relaxed moduli are obtained for a polycrytalline solid that undergoes relaxation by grain boundary sliding which accounts for the interaction effects. The overall inelastic nonlinear response at elevated temperatures in terms of a model which considers nonlinear power law creep within the grains, and linear viscous flow in the grain boundaries is discussed.

Nemat-Nasser, S.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Sample Complexity of Power System State Estimation using Matrix Completion: Preprint

In this paper, we propose an analytical framework to quantify the amount of data samples needed to obtain accurate state estimation in a power system-a problem known as \emph{sample complexity} analysis in computer science. Motivated by the increasing adoption of distributed energy resources into the distribution-level grids, it becomes imperative to estimate the state of distribution grids in order to ensure stable operation. Traditional power system state estimation techniques mainly focus on the transmission network which involve solving an overdetermined system and eliminating bad data. However, distribution networks are typically \emph{underdetermined} due to the large number of connection points and high cost of pervasive installation of measurement devices. In this paper, we consider the recently proposed state-estimation method for underdetermined systems that is based on \emph{matrix completion}. In particular, a \emph{constrained} matrix completion algorithm was proposed, wherein the standard matrix completion problem is augmented with additional equality constraints representing the physics (namely power-flow constraints). We analyze the sample complexity of this general method by proving an upper bound on the sample complexity that depends directly on the properties of these constraints that can lower number of needed samples as compared to the unconstrained problem. To demonstrate the improvement that the constraints add to state estimation, we test the method on a 141-bus distribution network case study and compare it to the traditional least squares minimization state estimation method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Secure State Estimation with Asynchronous Measurements for Coordinated Cyber Attack Detection in Active Distribution Systems

Coordinated cyber attacks tamper with measurement data to disrupt the situational awareness of active distribution systems. Various sensors report measurements asynchronously at different rates, which introduces challenges during state estimation. In addition, this forces cyber intruders to exert greater effort to compromise multiple communication channels and launch coordinated attacks. Therefore, multi-channel and asynchronous measurements could be harnessed to develop more secure cyber defense strategies. In this paper, a prediction-correction-based multi-rate observer is designed to exploit the value of asynchronous measurements for the detection of coordinated false data injection (FDI) attacks. First, a time-function-dependent prediction-correction strategy is proposed to adjust the sampling interval for each sensor’s measurement. Then, an observer is designed based on the trade-off between estimation error and the optimal period of the most recent sampling instant, with the convergence of estimation error with the maximum permitted sampling interval. Moreover, the conditions for exponential stability are developed using the Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional technique. Next, a coordinated FDI attack detection strategy is developed based on the dual nonlinear minimization problem. The proposed attack detection and secure state estimation strategies are tested on the IEEE 13-node system. Simulation results show that these schemes are effective in enhancing attack detection based on asynchronous measurements or compromised data.

asynchronous measurements↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Singular Value Decomposition Framework for Retrievals with Vertical Distribution Information from Greenhouse Gas Column Absorption Spectroscopy Measurements

We describe a variation of the Optimal Estimation (OE) method for greenhouse gas remote sensing retrievals using a singular value decomposition (SVD) and an uninformative prior. The SVD method is capable of discerning vertical information in column integrated absorption measurements. While traditional Bayesian optimal estimation (OE) assumes a prior distribution in order to regularize the inversion problem, the SVD approach identifies principal components that can be retrieved from the measurement without explicitly specifying a prior mean and prior covariance matrix. We discuss the method, illustrate its use on an integrated path differential absorption CO2 lidar measurement model, and compare it to traditional optimal estimation using numerical simulations. In the absence of forward model error, the mathematics behind the SVD method guarantee it to be bias-free, which is confirmed by the numerical simulations. In contrast, traditional OE retrievals exhibit bias when the prior mean used in the retrieval differs from the true mean. While the SVD approach can be used for most trace gas retrievals, it is particularly useful for situations where prior knowledge of the trace gas profile is poor. The SVD analysis is also useful in illustrating how vertical information is treated by the traditional OE approach.

Ramanathan, Anand K.↗
NASA NTRS1973

The Mean Ozone Distribution from Several Series of Rocket Sounding to 52 Km at Latitudes from 58 Deg S to 64 Deg N

The results of 21 rocket flights of Arcas optical ozonesondes were combined to produce estimates of the mean ozone distribution and its variability; these estimates apply to a broad range of latitudes. The flights were launched from sites near the equator to 58 S and to 64 N, in the years from 1965 to 1971. The local-noon mean ozone densities in molecules/cubic centimeter are 7.0 to the 10th power at 50 km, 6.7 x 10 to the 11th power at 40 km, 3.1 x 10 to the 12th power at 30 km, and 3.1 x 10 to the 12th power at 20 km. The range of observed densities is about + or - 30 percent of the mean value at 50 km; + or 40 percent at 40 km; + or - 40 percent at 30 km; and +200 percent, -66 percent at 20 km. The variabilities in this set of observations are much smaller than those indicated by previous measurements.

Krueger, A. J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

A systematic strategy for estimating hERG block potency and its implications in a new cardiac safety paradigm

Introduction: hERG block potency is widely used to calculate a drug's safety margin against its torsadogenic potential. Previous studies are confounded by use of different patch clamp electrophysiology protocols and a lack of statistical quantification of experimental variability. Since the new cardiac safety paradigm being discussed by the International Council for Harmonisation promotes a tighter integration of nonclinical and clinical data for torsadogenic risk assessment, a more systematic approach to estimate the hERG block potency and safety margin is needed. Methods: A cross-industry study was performed to collect hERG data on 28 drugs with known torsadogenic risk using a standardized experimental protocol. A Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) approach was used to assess the hERG block potency of these drugs by quantifying both the inter-site and intra-site variability. A modeling and simulation study was also done to evaluate protocol-dependent changes in hERG potency estimates. Results: A systematic approach to estimate hERG block potency is established. The impact of choosing a safety margin threshold on torsadogenic risk evaluation is explored based on the posterior distributions of hERG potency estimated by this method. The modeling and simulation results suggest any potency estimate is specific to the protocol used. Discussion: This methodology can estimate hERG block potency specific to a given voltage protocol. The relationship between safety margin thresholds and torsadogenic risk predictivity suggests the threshold should be tailored to each specific context of use, and safety margin evaluation may need to be integrated with other information to form a more comprehensive risk assessment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2021

Underlying each of the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample in order to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level financial data (Fujita, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include: Discount rate estimation methods and rationale; -Data sources used and data limitations; -Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis; -Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis. Going forward, this report will be updated as data allow and analyses necessitate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2022

Underlying each of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level and sector-level financial data (e.g., Fujita, 2021, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include the following: -Discount rate estimation methods and rationale -Data sources used and data limitations -Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis -Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis A version of this analysis was most recently released in 2022. Going forward, this report will be updated as data allow and analyses necessitate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2023

Underlying each of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process relying on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to estimate a business’ cost of equity, and by adding a risk adjustment factor to the risk-free rate associated with long-term U.S. Treasury bonds to estimate their cost of debt. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level and sector-level financial data (e.g., Fujita, 2021, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include the following: • Discount rate estimation methods and rationale • Data sources used and data limitations • Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis • Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1977

A model for dispersion from area sources in convective turbulence

Four independent estimates of the vertical distribution of the eddy coefficient for dispersion of a passive contaminant from an extensive area source in a convective layer have been presented. The estimates were based on the following methods: (1) a second-order closure prediction, (2) field data of pollutant concentrations over Los Angeles, (3) lab measurements of particle dispersion, and (4) assumption of equality between momentum and mass transfer coefficients in the free convective limit. It is suggested that K-values estimated both from second-order closure theory and from Los Angeles measurements are systematically underestimated.

Crane, G.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Space station internal propagation

The Space Station Freedom (SSF) is planned with a wireless communication system in place for the transmission of information between crew members on board. The clarity of transmission is paramount to an effective system of communication. A short overview is presented of the system including the requirements of interest, and a statement of the problem. The theory used to solve the problem is explored. The results given are for the experiments performed on a mockup of the proposed structure at NASA-Marshall. The requirements on the signal level are that there is a 45 dB signal to noise ratio from end to end, and that coverage over 99 pct. of the volume be maintained. The Rice probability distribution function, a simple extension of the Rayleigh distribution, is used to estimate the field strength inside a volume, where a significant line of sight from the transmitter to the receiver exists. For the SSF, this distribution will correspond to the summation of a coherent line of sight path between the transmitter and the receiver and an incoherent portion. The incoherent portion is the sum of reflections from the walls and the equipment inside the SSF. The Rice distribution was found to be the optimal distribution from the results.

Richie, J. E.↗