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At least 937 records · Page 52

Photovoltaic Inverter Failure Mechanism Estimation Using Unsupervised Machine Learning and Reliability Assessment

This article introduces a data-driven approach to assessing failure mechanisms and reliability degradation in outdoor photovoltaic (PV) string inverters. The manufacturer's stated PV inverter lifetime can vary due to the impact of operating site conditions. To address limitations in degradation estimation through accelerated testing, condition monitoring, or degradation modeling, we propose a machine learning (ML) oriented approach. Utilizing data from a 1.4 MW PV power plant operational since 2016, with 46 string PV inverters tied to the grid, we employ the unsupervised one-class support vector machine ML technique to analyze inverter and sensor data, capable of classifying humidity cycling and temperature fluctuations as dominant failure mechanisms. Utilizing the anomaly alert relationship and alert details specific to the inverter, the level of PV inverter output is considered as its availability or available reliability. Subsequently, a continuous Markov model is applied to six-month alert data, revealing an average stated reliability of 20% after 20 years of continuous operation. These results support recommendations for time-bound preventive measures to enhance PV inverter reliability under diverse outdoor conditions. Furthermore, the approach provides a nondestructive, top–down, and generalized method for analyzing any commercial PV inverter exposed to outdoor conditions, contingent on the availability of relevant data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Substation Secondary Asset Health Monitoring and Management System (SSHM)

Electric Power Group, LLC (EPG) was awarded DOE OE0000850 to design, develop, and demonstrate a real-time software application for substation secondary equipment health monitoring and management at host utility American Electric Power (AEP), a cost share partner. This project addresses the need for monitoring substation equipment health and providing operators with tools to identify and take pre-emptive action to avoid catastrophic equipment failure. By monitoring synchrophasor data in real time, data anomalies that indicate potential asset failure can be detected and alerts can be sent to operators in time to take corrective actions. EPG developed two data driven algorithms to identify abnormal equipment signature patterns as well as a method using substation linear state estimation (SLSE). The software has been deployed on hardened PC’s and tested and validated for cost share partner AEP’s substations - 138kV and 765 kV. The SSHM software has been accepted by AEP and final demonstration of DOE - OE0000850 for AEP and DOE was successfully completed on March 17th, 2020. EPG developed the Substation Secondary Asset Health Monitoring (SSHM) Platform to analyze equipment failure signatures in PMU data and alert substation personnel when pre-emptive inspection, repairs and other actions are warranted to prevent potential catastrophic failures. This is the first system that automatically monitors the health of substation secondary assets and alerts users to emerging failures using synchrophasor measurements. SSHM uses high resolution PMU data from PTs, CTs, and CCVTs to analyze equipment signatures and identify anomalies that are precursor indicators of potential equipment failure. When an anomaly is detected, there is a likelihood of potential failure of monitored equipment, the system alerts the user with visual alarms including alarm trend charts and indicator lights on a oneline diagram of the substation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Measuring labor productivity dynamics in U.S. industrial and electric power sectors: a case study (2014–2023)

This study proposes a subsystem methodology for measuring labor productivity in the U.S. industrial and electric power sectors by leveraging public data available between 2014 and 2023. Building on Pasinetti’s framework and subsequent developments, the approach employs Vertically Integrated Sectors (VIS) to account for both direct and indirect productivity effects. The novelty of this work is twofold. First, it enables the estimation of productivity trends over time, providing a robust foundation for empirical analysis. Second, it applies the methodology to a case study of the electric generation sector, highlighting its practical relevance. Using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Impact Analysis for Planning (IMPLAN) tool, the study reveals significant discrepancies between conventional productivity measures and those derived from the VIS approach. Furthermore, the proposed method aligns with the principles of Integrated Energy Systems by capturing the interrelations among generation, distribution, storage, and consumption. This alignment underscores its utility and applications for energy-related policy and planning. Overall, the findings contribute to more precise labor productivity assessments, supporting informed decision-making and future research. Additionally, the method highlights the importance of considering the whole supply chain, providing interrelated metrics for labor productivity which includes both, direct and indirect effects on the final labor productivity metric. By incorporating intersectoral dependencies, this method offers a more comprehensive and accurate measure of labor productivity compared to traditional metrics.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Search for $\mu^- \rightarrow e^+$ conversion: what can be learned from the SINDRUM-II positron data on a gold target

In their 2006 paper setting the current limit on \mumemconv\ conversion search on a gold target \cite{sindrum_ii:Bertl2006}, the SINDRUM-II collaboration published, along with the electron momentum distribution, the momentum distribution of reconstructed positrons. Near the positron spectrum endpoint, there is a statistically significant excess of observed events over the expected background. We estimate that in the region 88 MeV/c < p < 95 MeV/c there are 13 events with an expected background of about 1-1.5 event, which has not been discussed by the authors. Those 13 events form a bump with a width consistent with the experimental resolution, making one think of a $\mu^- \rightarrow e^+$ conversion signal. However, the reconstructed position of the bump is about 1 MeV/c, or $\sim\ 4\sigma_p$, lower than the expected $\mu^- Au \rightarrow e^+ Ir $ signal, which strongly discourages the exotic interpretation. The excess, however, could be due to an exclusive dipole radiative muon capture (RMC) transition $^{197}Au(GS) ~\rightarrow~ ^{197}Pt(GS)$ with the branching fraction of about $2\cdot 10^{-4}$. Such a transition would not be resolved by the existing RMC measurements. We conclude that the exclusive RMC transitions could significantly modify the positron spectrum near the kinematic endpoint, to fully exploit the physics potential of the upcoming experiments such as Mu2e and COMET, a better theoretical understanding of the RMC spectrum on nuclei is needed. A high-resolution measurement of the RMC photon spectra has to be carried out. Without that, the sensitivity of the searches for $\mu^- \rightarrow e^+$ and $\mu^- \rightarrow e^-$ might be severely limited by unknown probabilities of RMC transitions to the exclusive low-lying states of the daughter nuclei.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Imaging systematics induced by galaxy subsample fluctuation: New systematics at second order

Imaging systematics refers to the inhomogeneous distribution of a galaxy sample caused by varying observing conditions and astrophysical foregrounds. Current mitigation methods correct the galaxy density fluctuations $n$ gal /$\bar{n}$ gal caused by imaging systematics assuming that all galaxies in a sample have the same $n$ gal /$\bar{n}$ gal . Under this assumption, the corrected sample cannot perfectly recover the true correlation function. Here, we name this effect subsample systematics. For a galaxy sample, even if its overall sample statistics [redshift distribution 𝑛⁡(𝑧), galaxy bias 𝑏⁡(𝑧)], are accurately measured, 𝑛⁡(𝑧), 𝑏⁡(𝑧) can still vary across the observed footprint. It makes the correlation function amplitude of galaxy clustering higher, while correlation functions for galaxy-galaxy lensing and cosmic shear do not have noticeable change. Such a combination could potentially degenerate with physical signals on small angular scales, such as the amplitude of galaxy clustering, the impact of neutrino mass on the matter power spectrum, etc. subsample systematics cannot be corrected using imaging systematics mitigation approaches that rely on the cross-correlation signal between imaging systematics maps and the observed galaxy density field. In this paper, we derive formulated expressions of subsample systematics, demonstrating its fundamental difference with other imaging systematics. We also provide several toy models to visualize this effect. Finally, we discuss a potential method to estimate and mitigate subsample systematics by forward modeling its behavior using synthetic source injection.

Kong, Hui [The Barcelona Institute of Science and ↗

Evaluating Short-warning Mitigation via Intentional Robust Disruption of a Hypothetical Impact of Asteroid 2023 NT1

We investigate various short-warning mitigation scenarios via fragmentation for a hypothetical impact of asteroid 2023 NT1, a near-Earth object (NEO) that was discovered on 2023 July 15, two days after its closest approach to Earth on July 13. The asteroid passed by Earth within ∼0.25 lunar distances, with a closest approach of ∼1 × 10 5 km and a velocity of 11.27 km s −1 . Its size remains largely uncertain, with an estimated diameter range of 26–58 m and a most probable estimate of 34 m (JPL Sentry, 2023 September 15; weighted by the NEO size frequency distribution). If 2023 NT1 had collided with Earth, it could have caused significant local damage. Assuming a spherical asteroid with a diameter of 34 m, uniform density of 2.6 g cm −3 , and impact velocity of 15.59 km s −1 , a collision would have yielded an estimated impact energy of ∼1.5 Mt, approximately 3 times the energy of the Chelyabinsk airburst in 2013. We analyze the effectiveness of mitigation via intentional robust disruption for objects similar to 2023 NT1. We utilize Pulverize It (PI), a NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts study of planetary defense via fragmentation, to model potential mitigation scenarios through simulations of hypervelocity asteroid disruption and atmospheric ground effects in the case of a terminal defense mode. Simulations suggest that PI is an effective multimodal approach for planetary defense that can operate in extremely short interdiction modes, in addition to long interdiction timescales with extended warning. Our simulations support the proposition that threats like 2023 NT1 can be effectively mitigated with intercepts of 1 day (or less) prior to impact, yielding minimal to no ground damage.

Asteroids↗

Assessing hydrogen supply chains: An integrated review of leakage and energy efficiency studies

This paper examines hydrogen leakage and efficiency across the supply chain for liquid, gaseous, and mixed hydrogen systems. These factors are crucial for assessing hydrogen's role in mitigating emissions and facilitating a clean energy transition. Drawing on a comprehensive review of existing literature and model-based analysis, the study compiles leakage rates and efficiency metrics at each stage of the supply chain: production, storage, transmission, distribution, and end-use. These data inform system scenarios that estimate the impact of leakage on overall performance and climate benefits. The analysis also identifies persistent data gaps, particularly for liquid and mixed system configurations, and outlines priorities for future research. A comparison of hydrogen system types shows that gaseous pathways generally achieve the highest efficiencies (28 %–39 %) and the lowest leakage rates (∼4.5 %) across the supply chain. Liquid hydrogen systems, while favorable for long-distance and high-volume transport due to their higher energy density, exhibit lower efficiency (∼28 %) and a greater leakage potential (∼12 %). Mixed systems, which combine gaseous and liquid elements (e.g., pipeline transmission followed by liquefaction and truck distribution), show compounded energy losses and moderate-to-high leakage rates (6.8 %–9.4 %), highlighting trade-offs associated with added system complexity. The study highlights opportunities for technological advancements, including optimizing liquefaction, enhancing insulation for storage and transportation, and refining refueling equipment. These improvements are crucial for maximizing the climate benefits of hydrogen. The results offer actionable insights for researchers, industry, and policymakers working to develop low-leakage, high-efficiency hydrogen infrastructure.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Uncertainty guided online ensemble for non-stationary data streams in fusion science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior with distribution drifts, resulted by both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with such non-stationary data streams. Online learning techniques have been leveraged in other domains, however it has been largely unexplored for fusion applications. In this paper, we investigate online learning for continuous adaptation to drifting data streams in the prediction of Toroidal Field (TF) coils deflection at the DIII-D fusion facility. We further address the short-term performance degradation inherent to standard online learning, which arises because ground truth is unavailable at prediction time. To mitigate this issue, we propose an uncertainty-guided online ensemble framework. The method leverages the Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) for calibrated uncertainty estimation and uses these uncertainty measures to guide a meta-algorithm that aggregates predictions from learners trained over different historical horizons. Our results show that online learning reduces prediction error by 80% compared to a static model. The online ensemble and the proposed uncertainty-guided ensemble further reduce error by approximately 6%, and 10% respectively, relative to standard single-model online learning, while also providing calibrated uncertainty estimates to support operational decision-making.

AI↗

Sea spray aerosol production flux retrieval based on Doppler lidar measurements

Supermicron sea spray aerosols (SSA) play a crucial role in stratocumulus cloud microphysics and drizzle formation. However, our understanding of SSA's spatiotemporal distribution, production mechanisms, and fluxes in the marine boundary layer remains limited. This study introduces a novel approach to determine supermicron SSA production flux and number concentration at various heights above the ocean surface. Our method leverages Doppler lidar data, specifically attenuated backscatter and vertical velocity, collected at a 105 m range gate during the Eastern Pacific Clouds and Aerosols for Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) at Scripps Pier, La Jolla, California. To focus on nascent SSA, we analyzed data from periods with wind directions between 225° and 315° and wind speeds exceeding 4 m s −1 . Cloud and precipitation events were excluded using relative humidity, backscatter thresholds, and 2D Video Disdrometer observations. Results show that calculated supermicron SSA number concentrations at 105 m ranged from 0.26 to 2.93 cm −3 for surface wind speeds between 4 and 6 ms −1 . When exceeding the method's Limit of Detection, estimated production fluxes ranged from 0.20 to 1.53 cm −2 s −1 . This methodology has potential for application in various oceanic locations, likely enhancing our understanding of SSA's role in atmospheric processes and climate interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

System-level performance and degradation of 21 GWDC of utility-scale PV plants in the United States

We assess the performance of a fleet of 411 utility-scale (i.e., >5 MWAC and ground-mounted) photovoltaic (PV) projects totaling 21.1 GWDC (16.3 GWAC) of capacity, which achieved commercial operations in the United States from 2007 to 2016. This fleet of projects contributed more than 50% of all solar electricity generated in the United States in 2017. Using detailed information on individual project characteristics, in conjunction with modeled irradiance data, we assess the extent to which actual first-year performance has lived up to both modeled and stated expectations. We then analyze system-level performance degradation in subsequent years by employing a “fixed effects” regression model to statistically isolate the impact of age on system performance. We find that this fleet of utility-scale PV projects has generally lived up to ex ante expectations for first-year performance but that subsequent system-level degradation—found to be −1.3%/year (±0.2%)—has, on average, been worse than both ex ante expectations (commonly −0.5%/year) and results from past studies (ranging from −0.8%/year to −1.0%/year). We emphasize that −1.3%/year is a system-level estimate that captures more than just module degradation (e.g., including soiling, balance of plant degradation, and downtime for maintenance and/or other events). A side analysis of a variety of project characteristics suggests that system-level degradation rates tend to be of lower magnitude among newer projects and larger projects and at sites with lower long-term average temperatures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Hierarchical Resilience Planning for Networked Microgrids: A Case Study of Puerto Rico

Microgrids can be designed to enhance the energy resilience of communities and critical infrastructures, such as hospitals, data centers, and communication networks, which are vulnerable to frequent weather-related disruption. Coordinating multiple microgrids in a network can leverage the geographical diversity of load and generation resources while enabling resilient and cost-effective planning of the distribution system. Designing a networked microgrid is complex, involving intricate technical assessment, cost-benefit analysis, site-specific requirements, and the evaluation of existing resources. Therefore, this paper proposes a hierarchical resilience planning framework and performs an extensive techno-economic analysis for the design of a networked microgrid. Hierarchical resilience planning involves technology sizing at an individual community level to meet the critical load and satisfy resilience criteria, and resource optimization at networked microgrid level to provide a higher level of resilience and energy adequacy. A real-world case of Puerto Rico's cooperative microgrid “Microrred de la Montaña” is investigated considering localized electricity tariffs, site-specific demand profiles, solar generation, and existing hydro resources. Multiple optimization scenarios are developed based on the resiliency requirement to estimate the capacity of solar photovoltaic and battery energy storage (BES) to be installed at each substation. The results provide the optimal sizing for individual community and networked microgrid to withstand 1day and 3-day outages along with the criteria for critical load.

13 - HYDRO ENERGY↗

Seminar 13 - Advanced Methods for Grid Integration of High-Performance Residential Communities

High-performance residential communities such as net-zero energy (NZE) and NZE-ready communities are emerging across the United States as many cities and states have committed to achieve ambitious energy efficiency and renewable energy goals between now and 2050. The achievement of these goals will transform the nation's communities into the holistic paradigms consisting of pervasive solar photovoltaics (PVs) and other renewable distributed energy resources, energy storage and flexible loads. However, integrating residential communities with high PV penetration may bring many challenges to the grid. For example, during many hours of the year, electric power is flowing out of PV-enabled homes and back into the grid. When this happens simultaneously in many nearby homes, distribution feeder voltage can be raised significantly. Intermittent solar power can also cause voltage flickers, leading to potential damages on both distribution feeder and home appliances. Existing solutions, such as PV curtailment, battery storage, and direct load control, are not able to address all the challenges in a cost-effective way. Better understanding is needed on how to deploy rooftop PV, how to predict building loads, and how to coordinate the homes in a community to enhance grid reliability. This seminar consists of four integral presentations that cover different aspects of a solution to these challenges. First, we will present an automated method to identify the best surfaces to deploy PV and size PV according to the PV penetration goals in a community. Second, we will present a streamlined way to create gray-box building models that are suitable for large-scale building-grid co-simulation. Next, we will present a data-driven method to estimate the end-use energy consumption to better coordinate the behind-the-meter resources to reduce utility cost, provide grid services, and improve renewable energy integration. Lastly, we will present a hierarchical control system that integrates the building models and the estimated non-dispatchable loads into the decision-making process to enhance the reliability and resilience of the residential community. Simulation results from an NZE-ready community in Fort Collins, Colorado will be presented in all four presentations and the guidelines on better grid integration of residential communities will be provided.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Deep Learning Reconstruction of Daily Soil CO 2 Efflux Reveals Biogeochemical Insights and Reduces Annual Estimate Uncertainty Despite Limited Daily Predictability

Soil CO 2 efflux is commonly measured monthly or seasonally, leaving daily dynamics poorly resolved and contributing to global estimation uncertainty. We trained a single Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model to predict daily soil CO 2 efflux across 82 globally distributed sites in COSORE, with 0.2%–46.9% daily data coverage from 2003 to 2020. Despite using far fewer sites than are typically used to train a single deep learning model, with observations biased toward temperate mesic sites, the LSTM model performed well at approximately one-third of sites, reconstructed nearly 2 decades of daily efflux, and outperformed commonly used approaches for estimating daily efflux when applied to the same data set. Performance was weakest at pronounced peaks and troughs and at non-temperate sites with <1.5 years of observations and irregular data patterns. Nevertheless, annual efflux from reconstructed daily data had <40% error even at underperforming sites, substantially improving estimates derived from monthly and seasonal sampling (maximum errors of 95% and 136%, respectively). Temperature sensitivity (Q 10 ) estimated from reconstructed daily predictions closely matched estimates from daily observations, whereas Q 10 values derived from monthly or seasonal observations deviated substantially, suggesting that coarse temporal sampling may contribute to uncertainty in reported Q 10 values. Consistent daily reconstructions further enabled trend analyses for well-performing, predominantly temperate sites and showed increasing soil CO 2 efflux at most sites from 2003 to 2020, with more variable summer trends. Despite limitations, these results demonstrate the potential of LSTM models to reconstruct daily soil CO 2 efflux and reduce estimation uncertainties from sparse observations.

Smykalov, Valerie [Pennsylvania State University, ↗

Constraints on Local Primordial Non-Gaussianity with 3D Velocity Reconstruction from the Kinetic Sunyaev-Zeldovich Effect

The cosmic velocity field is an unbiased probe of the total matter distribution but is challenging to measure directly at intermediate and high redshifts. The large-scale velocity field imprints a signal in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) through the kinetic Sunyaev-Zeldovich (kSZ) effect. We perform the first 3D reconstruction of the large-scale velocity field from the kSZ effect by applying a quadratic estimator to CMB temperature maps and the 3D positions of galaxies. We do so by combining CMB data from the fifth data release of the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (in combination with Planck) and a spectroscopic galaxy sample from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We then measure the galaxy-velocity cross-power spectrum and detect the presence of the kSZ signal at a signal-to-noise ratio of 7.2⁢𝜎. Using this galaxy-velocity cross-correlation alone, we constrain the amplitude of local primordial non-Gaussianity finding 𝑓 NL =−9⁢0$^{+210}_{−350}$. In conclusion, this pathfinder measurement sets the stage for joint galaxy-CMB kSZ constraints to significantly enhance the 𝑓 NL information obtained from galaxy surveys through sample variance cancellation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Machine learning-driven predictive resource management in complex science workflows

Here, the collaborative efforts of large communities in science experiments, often comprising thousands of global members, reflect a monumental commitment to exploration and discovery. Recently, advanced and complex data processing has gained increasing importance in science experiments. Data processing workflows typically consist of multiple intricate steps, and the precise specification of resource requirements is crucial for each step to allocate optimal resources for effective processing. Estimating resource requirements in advance is challenging due to a wide range of analysis scenarios, varying skill levels among community members, and the continuously increasing spectrum of computing options. One practical approach to mitigate these challenges involves initially processing a subset of each step to measure precise resource utilization from actual processing profiles before completing the entire step. While this two-staged approach enables processing on optimal resources for most of the workflow, it has drawbacks such as initial inaccuracies leading to potential failures and suboptimal resource usage, along with overhead from waiting for initial processing completion, which is critical for fast-turnaround analyses. In this context, our study introduces a novel pipeline of machine learning models within a comprehensive workflow management system, the Production and Distributed Analysis (PanDA) system. These models employ advanced machine learning techniques to predict key resource requirements, overcoming challenges posed by limited upfront knowledge of characteristics at each step. Accurate forecasts of resource requirements enable informed and proactive decision-making in workflow management, enhancing the efficiency of handling diverse, complex workflows across heterogeneous resources.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Guanajuato Policy Options for Land Transportation Greenhouse Gas Reduction [Slides]

NREL consulted the Mexican state of Guanajuato to help them identify and prioritize policies that are specifically applicable to their land transportation system and help them meet their greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction goals. Three focus groups were held across Guanajuato to get the input from a wide variety of users of the transportation system. These focus groups performed a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis of Guanajuato's transportation system and logged the policy goals of participants. NREL then developed a menu of policy options that have been used successfully in relevant countries and prioritized these policies based on the weighted input from stakeholder groups. The most applicable policies were a paid parking strategy, regional transit master plan, and expanded bike and pedestrian infrastructure. Case studies of these three policies, plus a few more, were then presented to inform Guanajuato of how these policies could successfully be implemented. Finally, the GHG reductions for five of the most applicable policies were estimated to reduce emissions from Guanajuato's land transportation system nearly 40% below business-as-usual emissions by 2050.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Tri-Level Scheduling Model Considering Residential Demand Flexibility of Aggregated HVACs and EVs Under Distribution LMP

Residential loads, especially heating, ventilation and air conditioners (HVACs) and electric vehicles (EVs), have great potentials to provide demand flexibility which is an attribute of grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEB). Under this new paradigm, first, EV and HVAC aggregator models are developed in this paper to represent the fleet of GEBs, in which the aggregated parameters are obtained based on a new approach of data generation and least squares parameter estimation (DG-LSPE), which can deal with heterogeneous HVACs. Then, a tri-level bidding and dispatching framework is established based on competitive distribution operation with distribution locational marginal price (DLMP). Furthermore, the first two levels form a bilevel model to optimize the aggregators’ payment and to represent the interdependency between load aggregators and the distribution system operator (DSO) using DLMP, and the third level is to dispatch the optimal load aggregation to all residents by the proposed priority list-based demand dispatching algorithm. Finally, case studies on a modified IEEE 33-Bus system illustrate three main technical reasons of payment reduction due to demand flexibility: load shift, DLMP step changes, and power losses. They can be used as general guidelines for better decision-making for future planning and operation of demand response programs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗