Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Forest Modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 937 records · Page 52
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Analytics-at-scale of Sensor Data for Digital Monitoring in Nuclear Plants (3 rd Annual Report)

Nuclear power plants collect and store large volumes of heterogeneous data from various components and systems. With recent advances in machine learning (ML) techniques, these data can be leveraged to develop diagnostic and short-term forecasting models to better predict future equipment condition. Maintenance operations can then be planned in advance whenever degraded performance is predicted, thus resulting in fewer unplanned outages and the optimization of maintenance activities. This enables lower maintenance costs and improves the overall economics of nuclear power. This report primarily focuses on developing a short-term forecasting process that leverages a feature selection process to distill large volumes of heterogeneous data and predict specific equipment parameters. A variety of feature selection methods, including Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and variance inflation factor (VIF), were used to select the optimal features as inputs for three ML methods: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). Each combination of model and input features was used to predict a pump bearing temperature both 1 and 24 hours in advance, based on actual plant system data. The optimal inputs for the LSTM and SVR were selected using the SHAP values, while the optimal input for the RF consisted solely of the response variable itself. Each model produced similar 1-hour-ahead predictions, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of roughly 0.006. For the 24-hour-ahead predictions, differences could be seen between LSTM, SVR, and RF, as reflected by model performances of 0.036 ± 0.014, 0.0026 ± 0, and 0.063 ± 0.004 RMSE, respectively. As big data and continuous online monitoring become more widely available, the proposed feature selection process can be used for many applications beyond the prediction of process parameters within nuclear infrastructure. This report summarizes the Fiscal Year 2021 research progress encompassing the (1) data cleaning and feature selection necessary for ML applications; (2) development of short-term forecasting models to predict future plant process parameters for both single and multiple time steps ahead; and (3) validation of the feature selection methods and short-term forecasting models given new data from different systems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS2011

Using EO-1 Hyperion to Simulate HyspIRI Products for a Coniferous Forest: The Fraction of PAR Absorbed by Chlorophyll (fAPAR(sub chl)) and Leaf Water Content (LWC)

This study presents development of prototype products for terrestrial ecosystems in preparation for the future imaging spectrometer planned for the Hyperspectral Infrared Imager (HyspIRI) mission. We present a successful demonstration example in a coniferous forest of two product prototypes: fraction of photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) absorbed by chlorophyll of a canopy (fAPAR(sub chl)) and leaf water content (LWC), for future HyspIRI implementation at 60 m spatial resolution. For this, we used existing 30 m resolution imaging spectrometer data available from the Earth Observing One (EO-1) Hyperion satellite to simulate and prototype the level one radiometrically corrected radiance (L1R) images expected from the HyspIRI visible through shortwave infrared spectrometer. The HyspIRI-like images were atmospherically corrected to obtain surface reflectance, and spectrally resampled to produce 60 m reflectance images for wavelength regions that were comparable to all seven of the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land bands. Thus, we developed MODIS-like surface reflectance in seven spectral bands at the HyspIRI-like spatial scale, which was utilized to derive fAPARchl and LWC with a coupled canopy-leaf radiative transfer model (PROSAIL2) for the coniferous forest[1]. With this study, we provide additional evidence that the fAPARchl product is more realistic for describing the physiologically active canopy than the traditional fAPAR parameter for the whole canopy (fAPAR(sub canopy)), and thus should replace it in ecosystem process models to reduce uncertainties in terrestrial carbon cycle studies and ecosystem studies.

Zhang, Qingyuan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Forest structural complexity and ignition pattern influence simulated prescribed fire effects

Background: Forest structural characteristics, the burning environment, and the choice of ignition pattern each influence prescribed fire behaviors and resulting fire effects; however, few studies examine the influences and interactions of these factors. Understanding how interactions among these drivers can influence prescribed fire behavior and effects is crucial for executing prescribed fires that can safely and effectively meet management objectives. To analyze the interactions between the fuels complex and ignition patterns, we used FIRETEC, a three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics fire behavior model, to simulate fire behavior and effects across a range of horizontal and vertical forest structural complexities. For each forest structure, we then simulated three different prescribed fires each with a unique ignition pattern: strip-head, dot, and alternating dot. Results: Forest structural complexity and ignition pattern affected the proportions of simulated crown scorch, consumption, and damage for prescribed fires in a dry, fire-prone ecosystem. Prescribed fires in forests with complex canopy structures resulted in increased crown consumption, scorch, and damage compared to less spatially complex forests. The choice of using a strip-head ignition pattern over either a dot or alternating-dot pattern increased the degree of crown foliage scorched and damaged, though did not affect the proportion of crown consumed. We found no evidence of an interaction between forest structural complexity and ignition pattern on canopy fuel consumption, scorch, or damage. Conclusions: We found that forest structure and ignition pattern, two powerful drivers of fire behavior that forest managers can readily account for or even manipulate, can be leveraged to influence fire behavior and the resultant fire effects of prescribed fire. These simulation findings have critical implications for how managers can plan and perform forest thinning and prescribed burn treatments to meet risk management or ecological objectives.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Meteorology and Snow Data Set From Adjacent Forested and Meadow Sites at Crested Butte, CO, USA

We present meteorology and snow observation data collected at sites in the southwestern Colorado Rocky Mountains (USA) over three consecutive water years with different amounts of snow water equivalent (SWE) accumulation: A year with above average SWE (2019), a year with average SWE (2020), and a year with below average SWE (2021). This data set is distinguished by its emphasis on paired open-forest sites in a continental snow climate. Approximately once a month during February–May, we collected data from 15 to 20 snow pits and took 8 to 19 snow depth transects. Our sampling sites were in open and adjacent forested areas at 3,100 m and in a lower elevation aspen (3,035 m) and higher elevation conifer stand (3,395 m). In total, we recorded 270 individual snow pit density and temperature profiles and over 4,000 snow depth measurements. These data are complimented by continuous meteorological measurements from two weather stations: One in the open and one in the adjacent forest. Meteorology data—including incoming shortwave and longwave radiation, outgoing shortwave radiation, relative humidity, wind speed, snow depth, and air and infrared surface temperature—were quality controlled and the forcing data were gap-filled. These data are available to download from Bonner, Smyth, et al. at three levels of processing, including a level with downscaled, adjusted precipitation based on data assimilation using observed snow depth and a process-based snow model. We demonstrate the utility of these data with a modeling experiment that explores open-forest differences and identifies opportunities for improvements in model representation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A general spatial-temporal framework for short-term building temperature forecasting at arbitrary locations with crowdsourcing weather data

Weather forecasting has been a critical component to predict and control building energy consumption for better building energy management. Without accessibility to other data sources, the onsite observed temperatures or the airport temperatures are used in forecast models. In this paper, we present a novel approach by utilizing the crowdsourcing weather data from neighboring personal weather stations (PWS) to improve the weather forecast accuracy around buildings using a general spatial-temporal modeling framework. The final forecast is based on the ensemble of local forecasts for the target location using neighboring PWSs. Our approach is distinguished from existing literature in various aspects. First, we leverage the crowdsourcing weather data from PWS in addition to public data sources. In this way, the data is at much finer time resolution (e.g., at 5-minute frequency) and spatial resolution (e.g., arbitrary location vs grid). Second, our proposed model incorporates spatial-temporal correlation information of weather variables between the target building and a set of neighboring PWSs so that underlying correlations can be effectively captured to improve forecasting performance. Here, we demonstrate the performance of the proposed framework by comparing to the benchmark models on temperature forecasting for a building located at an arbitrary location at San Antonio, Texas, USA. In general, the proposed model framework equipped with machine learning technique such as Random Forest can improve forecasting by 50% compares with persistent model and has 90% chance to outperform airport forecast in short-term forecasting. In a real-time setting, the proposed model framework can provide more accurate temperature forecasting results compared with using airport temperature forecast for most forecast horizon. Moreover, we analyze the sensitivity of model parameters to gain insights on how crowdsourcing data from the neighboring personal weather stations impacts forecasting performance. Finally, we implement our model in other cities such as Syracuse and Chicago to test the model's performance in different landforms and climate types.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of Short-Term Forecasting Models Using Plant Asset Data and Feature Selection

Nuclear power plants collect and store large volumes of heterogeneous data from various components and systems. With recent advances in machine learning (ML) techniques, these data can be leveraged to develop diagnostic and short-term forecasting models to better predict future equipment condition. Maintenance operations can then be planned in advance whenever degraded performance is predicted, thus resulting in fewer unplanned outages and the optimization of maintenance activities. This enables lower maintenance costs and improves the overall economics of nuclear power. This paper focuses on developing a short-term forecasting process that leverages a feature selection process to distill large volumes of heterogeneous data and predict specific equipment parameters. A variety of feature selection methods, including Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and variance inflation factor (VIF), were used to select the optimal features as inputs for three ML methods: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). Each combination of model and input features was used to predict a pump bearing temperature both 1 and 24 hours in advance, based on actual plant system data. The optimal inputs for the LSTM and SVR were selected using the SHAP values, while the optimal input for the RF consisted solely of the response variable itself. Each model produced similar 1-hour-ahead predictions, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of roughly 0.006. For the 24-hour-ahead predictions, differences could be seen between LSTM, SVR, and RF, as reflected by model performances of 0.036 +- 0.014, 0.0026 +- 0, and 0.063 +- 0.004 RMSE, respectively. As big data and continuous online monitoring become more widely available, the proposed feature selection process can be used for many applications beyond the prediction of process parameters within nuclear infrastructure.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving estimates of sub-daily gross primary production from solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence by accounting for light distribution within canopy

Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has long been regarded as a proxy for photosynthesis and has shown superiority in estimating gross primary production (GPP) compared to traditional vegetation indices, especially in evergreen ecosystems. However, current SIF-based GPP estimations regard the canopy as a large leaf and seldom consider the impact of interactions among light, canopy structure, and leaf physiology. In this study, we proposed GPP estimation models with different descriptions of light–structure–physiology interactions (including the layered model, the two-leaf model, and the layered two-leaf model) and compared their performances with the big-leaf model using half-hourly (or hourly) observations at evergreen needleleaf forest sites. First, we found that the big-leaf model underestimated GPP, especially at noon. All models showed higher accuracy than that of the big-leaf model. Second, we investigated the diurnal dynamics of GPP estimations in each canopy layer and found that models with a two-leaf assumption captured the diurnal variations in GPP better than that with the layered assumption. Here we also deduced that the poor performance of the big-leaf model was related to its overestimation of the overall light stress on the redox state of PSII reaction centers (qL). Finally, we noticed that the qL at the canopy scale had lower sensitivity to light change than the single-leaf qL and that the light response of canopy-scale qL was influenced by the leaf area index during seasonal cycles. Overall, this study describes methods to accurately estimate sub-daily GPP from SIF in evergreen needleleaf forests and demonstrates that the interactions among light, canopy structure, and leaf physiology regulate the SIF-GPP relationship at the canopy scale. Further, it indicates the need to consider the description of light distribution within the canopy in next-generation terrestrial biosphere models, even if they incorporate SIF to constrain their parameterization. Thus, upscaling the established leaf-scale mechanistic SIF-GPP relationship or findings to canopy-scale applications still requires much work, especially when there are significant changes in environmental conditions and their within-canopy distributions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Above and belowground connections and species interactions: Controls over ecosystem fluxes

The ultimate goal of this work was to quantify soil and volatile organic compound fluxes as a function of tree species and associated mycorrhizal associations in an intact forest, but also to describe the physical and biological factors that control these emissions. The results of this research lay the foundation toward an improved mechanistic understanding of carbon pathways, fluxes, and ecosystem function, ultimately improving the representation of forest ecosystems in Earth System models. To this end, a multidisciplinary approach was necessary to fill a critical gap in our understanding of how soil and root processes may influence whole-ecosystem carbon-based volatile fluxes in the face of a rapidly changing climate. We developed a series of novel sampling protocols and coupled a variety of advanced analytical techniques, resulting in findings relevant across disciplines. Furthermore, we leveraged existing infrastructure, research sites, and datasets to design a low-cost exploratory project that links belowground processes, soil volatile emissions, and total ecosystem carbon budgets. Measurements from soil collars installed across a species/mycorrhizal gradient at the DOE-supported Moran Monroe State Forest Ameriflux tower site suggest that leaf litter is the primary source of belowground and forest floor volatile emissions, but the strength of this source is significantly affected not only by leaf litter type, but the strength of the soil as a sink. Results suggest that the strength of the sink is influenced by tree species-specific associated microbial communities that change throughout the season as a function of temperature, soil moisture, leaf litter inputs, and phenology. The magnitude of the observed volatile fluxes from the forest floor is small relative to total aboveground ecosystem flux, but the contribution of these emissions to volatile-mediated ecological interactions and soil processes (e.g. nitrification) varies substantially across the growing season. This research lays the foundation to answer important questions regarding the impacts of seasonality and forest composition on belowground volatile source-sink dynamics in mediating nutrient cycling and biogeochemistry dynamics—critical components of overall ecosystem functioning. In collaboration with the Environmental Simulations Unit (EUS) at the Helmholtz Zentrum in Munich, Germany (headed by Prof. Dr. Joerg-Peter Schinitzler), we investigated carbon investment in above and belowground plant volatile compounds in response to environmental conditions and mycorrhizal associations. Using the sophisticated phytotron facility and on-line trace gas instruments, we conducted controlled laboratory experiments that showed that biotic stresses, such as herbivore feeding, can alter the magnitude of belowground volatile emissions as well as carbon allocation towards these volatiles. We saw no effect of mycorrhizae on any induced response, suggesting that microbial effects were unrelated to source-sink dynamics driving terpene emissions. Furthermore, the results suggest that even though enzyme activity responsible for root volatile synthesis is up-regulated following herbivory, the sink strength of the soil can significantly impact what is measured at the soil/atmosphere interface and thereby what enters the atmosphere. This is important as scientists may be underestimating the magnitude of belowground volatile emissions and their influence on belowground interactions due to limitations associated with current sampling techniques. These key findings are being integrated with results from a hydroxyl radical reactivity-VOC campaign and a late season litter removal experiment to offer a comprehensive mechanistic understanding of the sources and controls over soil volatile emissions, particularly during times of the year when vegetative aboveground emissions are low (leaf senescence). Ultimately, these coupled field and laboratory experiments offer insights into seasonal dynamics of volatile emissions and the mechanisms that control carbon allocation to these compounds with an eye towards improving carbon budgets, nutrient cycling, and terrestrial ecosystem models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Harmonising the land-use flux estimates of global models and national inventories for 2000–2020

As the focus of climate policy shifts from pledges to implementation, there is a growing need to track progress on climate change mitigation at the country level, particularly for the land-use sector. Despite new tools and models providing unprecedented monitoring opportunities, striking differences remain in estimations of anthropogenic land-use CO 2 fluxes between, on the one hand, the national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) used to assess compliance with national climate targets under the Paris Agreement and, on the other hand, the Global Carbon Budget and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, both based on global bookkeeping models (BMs). Recent studies have shown that these differences are mainly due to inconsistent definitions of anthropogenic CO 2 fluxes in managed forests. Countries assume larger areas of forest to be managed than BMs do, due to a broader definition of managed land in NGHGIs. Additionally, the fraction of the land sink caused by indirect effects of human-induced environmental change (e.g. fertilisation effect on vegetation growth due to increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration) on managed lands is treated as non-anthropogenic by BMs but as anthropogenic in most NGHGIs. We implement an approach that adds the CO 2 sink caused by environmental change in countries' managed forests (estimated by 16 dynamic global vegetation models, DGVMs) to the land-use fluxes from three BMs. This sum is conceptually more comparable to NGHGIs and is thus expected to be quantitatively more similar. Our analysis uses updated and more comprehensive data from NGHGIs than previous studies and provides model results at a greater level of disaggregation in terms of regions, countries and land categories (i.e. forest land, deforestation, organic soils, other land uses). Our results confirm a large difference (6.7 GtCO 2 yr —1 ) in global land-use CO 2 fluxes between the ensemble mean of the BMs, which estimate a source of 4.8 GtCO 2 yr —1 for the period 2000–2020, and NGHGIs, which estimate a sink of —1.9 GtCO 2 yr —1 in the same period. Most of the gap is found on forest land (3.5 GtCO 2 yr —1 ), with differences also for deforestation (2.4 GtCO 2 yr —1 ), for fluxes from other land uses (1.0 GtCO 2 yr —1 ) and to a lesser extent for fluxes from organic soils (0.2 GtCO 2 yr —1 ). By adding the DGVM ensemble mean sink arising from environmental change in managed forests (—6.4 GtCO 2 yr —1 ) to BM estimates, the gap between BMs and NGHGIs becomes substantially smaller both globally (residual gap: 0.3 GtCO 2 yr —1 ) and in most regions and countries. However, some discrepancies remain and deserve further investigation. For example, the BMs generally provide higher emissions from deforestation than NGHGIs and, when adjusted with the sink in managed forests estimated by DGVMs, yield a sink that is often greater than NGHGIs. In summary, this study provides a blueprint for harmonising the estimations of anthropogenic land-use fluxes, allowing for detailed comparisons between global models and national inventories at global, regional and country levels. This is crucial to increase confidence in land-use emissions estimates, support investments in land-based mitigation strategies and assess the countries' collective progress under the Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2023

Harmonising the Land-Use Flux Estimates of Global Models and National Inventories for 2000–2020

As the focus of climate policy shifts from pledges to implementation, there is a growing need to track progress on climate change mitigation at the country level, particularly for the land-use sector. Despite new tools and models providing unprecedented monitoring opportunities, striking differences remain in estimations of anthropogenic land-use CO 2 fluxes between, on the one hand, the national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) used to assess compliance with national climate targets under the Paris Agreement and, on the other hand, the Global Carbon Budget and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, both based on global bookkeeping models (BMs). Recent studies have shown that these differences are mainly due to inconsistent definitions of anthropogenic CO 2 fluxes in managed forests. Countries assume larger areas of forest to be managed than BMs do, due to a broader definition of managed land in NGHGIs. Additionally, the fraction of the land sink caused by indirect effects of human-induced environmental change (e.g. fertilisation effect on vegetation growth due to increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration) on managed lands is treated as non-anthropogenic by BMs but as anthropogenic in most NGHGIs. We implement an approach that adds the CO 2 sink caused by environmental change in countries' managed forests (estimated by 16 dynamic global vegetation models, DGVMs) to the land-use fluxes from three BMs. This sum is conceptually more comparable to NGHGIs and is thus expected to be quantitatively more similar. Our analysis uses updated and more comprehensive data from NGHGIs than previous studies and provides model results at a greater level of disaggregation in terms of regions, countries and land categories (i.e. forest land, deforestation, organic soils, other land uses). Our results confirm a large difference (6.7 GtCO 2 yr −1 ) in global land-use CO 2 fluxes between the ensemble mean of the BMs, which estimate a source of 4.8 GtCO 2 yr −1 for the period 2000–2020, and NGHGIs, which estimate a sink of −1.9 GtCO 2 yr −1 in the same period. Most of the gap is found on forest land (3.5 GtCO 2 yr −1 ), with differences also for deforestation (2.4 GtCO 2 yr −1 ), for fluxes from other land uses (1.0 GtCO 2 yr −1 ) and to a lesser extent for fluxes from organic soils (0.2 GtCO2 yr−1). By adding the DGVM ensemble mean sink arising from environmental change in managed forests (−6.4 GtCO 2 yr −1 ) to BM estimates, the gap between BMs and NGHGIs becomes substantially smaller both globally (residual gap: 0.3 GtCO 2 yr −1 ) and in most regions and countries. However, some discrepancies remain and deserve further investigation. For example, the BMs generally provide higher emissions from deforestation than NGHGIs and, when adjusted with the sink in managed forests estimated by DGVMs, yield a sink that is often greater than NGHGIs. In summary, this study provides a blueprint for harmonising the estimations of anthropogenic land-use fluxes, allowing for detailed comparisons between global models and national inventories at global, regional and country levels. This is crucial to increase confidence in land-use emissions estimates, support investments in land-based mitigation strategies and assess the countries' collective progress under the Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement.

Giacomo Grassi↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting spring phenology in deciduous broadleaf forests: NEON phenology forecasting community challenge

Accurate models are important to predict how global climate change will continue to alter plant phenology and near-term ecological forecasts can be used to iteratively improve models and evaluate predictions that are made a priori. The Ecological Forecasting Initiative's National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) Forecasting Challenge, is an open challenge to the community to forecast daily greenness values, measured through digital images collected by the PhenoCam Network at NEON sites before the data are collected. For the first round of the challenge, which is presented here, we forecasted canopy greenness throughout the spring at eight deciduous broadleaf sites to investigate when, where, and for what model type phenology forecast skill is highest. A total of 192,536 predictions were submitted, representing eighteen models, including a persistence and a day of year mean null models. We found that overall forecast skill was highest when forecasting earlier in the greenup curve compared to the end, for shorter lead times, for sites that greened up earlier, and when submitting forecasts during times other than near budburst. The models based on day of year historical mean had the highest predictive skill across the challenge period. In this first round of the challenge, by synthesizing across forecasts, we started to elucidate what factors affect the predictive skill of near-term phenology forecasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Dry-Season Greening and Water Stress in Amazonia: The Role of Modeling Leaf Phenology

Large uncertainties on the sensitivity of Amazon forests to drought exist. Even though water stress should suppress photosynthesis and enhance tree mortality, a green-up has been often observed during the dry season. This interplay between climatic forcing and forest phenology is poorly understood and inadequately represented in most of existing dynamic global vegetation models calling for an improved description of the Amazon seasonal dynamics. Recent findings on tropical leaf phenology are incorporated in the state-of-the-art eco-hydrological model Thetys & Chloris. The new model accounts for a mechanistic light-controlled leaf development, synchronized dry-season litterfall, and an age-dependent leaf photosynthetic capacity. Simulation results from 32 sites in the Amazon basin over a 15-year period successfully mimic the seasonality of gross primary productivity; evapotranspiration (ET); as well as leaf area index, leaf age, and leaf productivity. Representation of tropical leaf phenology reproduces the observed dry-season greening, reduces simulated gross primary productivity, and does not alter ET, when compared with simulations without phenology. Tolerance to dry periods, with the exception of major drought events, is simulated by the model. Deep roots rather than leaf area index regulation mechanisms control the response to short-term droughts, but legacy effects can exacerbate multiyear water stress. Our results provide a novel mechanistic approach to model leaf phenology and flux seasonality in the tropics, reconciling the generally observed dry-season greening, ET seasonality, and decreased carbon uptake during severe droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Daily MODIS 500 m Reflectance Anisotropy Direct Broadcast (DB) Products for Monitoring Vegetation Phenology Dynamics

Land surface vegetation phenology is an efficient bio-indicator for monitoring ecosystem variation in response to changes in climatic factors. The primary objective of the current article is to examine the utility of the daily MODIS 500 m reflectance anisotropy direct broadcast (DB) product for monitoring the evolution of vegetation phenological trends over selected crop, orchard, and forest regions. Although numerous model-fitted satellite data have been widely used to assess the spatio-temporal distribution of land surface phenological patterns to understand phenological process and phenomena, current efforts to investigate the details of phenological trends, especially for natural phenological variations that occur on short time scales, are less well served by remote sensing challenges and lack of anisotropy correction in satellite data sources. The daily MODIS 500 m reflectance anisotropy product is employed to retrieve daily vegetation indices (VI) of a 1 year period for an almond orchard in California and for a winter wheat field in northeast China, as well as a 2 year period for a deciduous forest region in New Hampshire, USA. Compared with the ground records from these regions, the VI trajectories derived from the cloud-free and atmospherically corrected MODIS Nadir BRDF (bidirectional reflectance distribution function) adjusted reflectance (NBAR) capture not only the detailed footprint and principal attributes of the phenological events (such as flowering and blooming) but also the substantial inter-annual variability. This study demonstrates the utility of the daily 500 m MODIS reflectance anisotropy DB product to provide daily VI for monitoring and detecting changes of the natural vegetation phenology as exemplified by study regions comprising winter wheat, almond trees, and deciduous forest.

Vegetation↗
DOE OSTI2018

Carbon exchange in an Amazon forest: from hours to years

Abstract. In Amazon forests, the relative contributions of climate, phenology, and disturbance to net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE) are not well understood. To partition influences across various timescales, we use a statistical model to represent eddy-covariance-derived NEE in an evergreen eastern Amazon forest as a constant response to changing meteorology and phenology throughout a decade. Our best fit model represented hourly NEE variations as changes due to sunlight, while seasonal variations arose from phenology influencing photosynthesis and from rainfall influencing ecosystem respiration, where phenology was asynchronous with dry-season onset. We compared annual model residuals with biometric forest surveys to estimate impacts of drought disturbance. We found that our simple model represented hourly and monthly variations in NEE well ( R 2 = 0.81 and 0.59, respectively). Modeled phenology explained 1 % of hourly and 26 % of monthly variations in observed NEE, whereas the remaining modeled variability was due to changes in meteorology. We did not find evidence to support the common assumption that the forest phenology was seasonally light- or water-triggered. Our model simulated annual NEE well, with the exception of 2002, the first year of our data record, which contained 1.2 MgC ha −1 of residual net emissions, because photosynthesis was anomalously low. Because a severe drought occurred in 1998, we hypothesized that this drought caused a persistent, multi-year depression of photosynthesis. Our results suggest drought can have lasting impacts on photosynthesis, possibly via partial damage to still-living trees.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Differential effects of drought on nonstructural carbohydrate storage in seedlings and mature trees of four species in a subtropical forest

Nonstructural carbohydrates (NSC) play important roles in forest vulnerability to climate change, especially under increasing drought intensity and frequency. Understanding NSC dynamics is essential for accurately predicting the resistance and resilience of forests in response to drought. However, our knowledge of NSC re-sponses to drought is still limited due to the lack of research in trees of di?erent life stages. In this study, we conducted a throughfall exclusion experiment (TFE) with four subtropical evergreen tree species to examine drought e?ects on NSC in mature trees and understory seedlings. Our results showed the differential effects of drought on NSC dynamics of understory seedlings and mature trees. In the TFE experiment, mature trees of all four species were relatively homoeostatic with the insigni?cantly changed NSC pools, photosynthesis, and growth under the drought treatment compared to the control. In contrast, understory seedlings displayed sig-ni?cant decreases in total NSC and soluble sugars (-14.70 ± 3.66% and -16.93 ± 3.85%, respectively) with the exception of Lithocarpus glaber (L. glaber). The seedlings of L. glaber with the highest hydraulic resistance maintained or slightly increased NSC and its components in response to drought. Our study highlights the im-portance of life stage in assessing drought e?ects of trees on NSC storage and then forest C cycling, which could be incorporated into the dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to better understand drought effects on forest C balance in the future.

Zhang, Peipei↗
DOE OSTI2025

Construction of the damped Ly⁢𝛼 absorber catalog for DESI DR2 Ly⁢𝛼 BAO

We present the Damped Ly⁢𝛼 Toolkit for automated detection and characterization of damped Ly⁢𝛼 absorbers (DLAs) in quasar spectra. Our method uses quasar spectral templates with and without absorption from intervening DLAs to reconstruct observed quasar forest regions. The best-fitting model determines whether a DLA is present while estimating the redshift and HI column density. With an optimized quality cut on detection significance (Δ⁢𝜒$^{2}_{𝑟}$ >0.03), the technique achieves an estimated 80% purity and 79% completeness when evaluated on simulated spectra with S/N>2 that are free of broad absorption lines (BALs). We provide a catalog containing candidate DLAs from the DLA Toolkit detected in DESI DR1 quasar spectra, of which 21 719 were found in S/N>2 spectra with predicted log 10 ⁡(𝑁 𝙷𝙸 )>20.3 and detection significance Δ⁢𝜒$^{2}_{𝑟}$ >0.03. We compare the Damped Ly⁢𝛼 Toolkit to two alternative DLA finders based on a convolutional neural network and Gaussian process models. We present a strategy for combining these three techniques to produce a high-fidelity DLA catalog from DESI DR2 for the Ly⁢𝛼 forest baryon acoustic oscillation measurement. The combined catalog contains 41 152 candidate DLAs with log 10 ⁡(𝑁 𝙷𝙸 )>20.3 from quasar spectra with S/N>2. We estimate this sample to be approximately 85% pure and 79% complete when BAL quasars are excluded.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Machine Learning-Based Method to Estimate Transformer Primary-Side Voltages with Limited Customer-Side AMI Measurements

Distribution control applications such as volt/var optimization, network reconfiguration, and distribution automation require accurate knowledge of the distribution system state. The lack of sufficient sensors on the primary side of distribution networks often limits the accuracy of the control decisions by these applications. The deployment of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) provides utilities an opportunity to translate the AMI data on the secondary onto the primary so that it can be used as pseudo-measurements to augment the limited existing measurements on the primary. This paper develops a machine learning based approach for estimating service transformer primary-side voltages by using limited secondary-side AMI measurement. The machine learning model is developed by using random forest algorithm. The estimated primary-side voltages can be used by utilities as pseudo-measurements for distribution control applications. The detailed secondary model topology, which is an essential input data for many existing algorithms, is not required for the proposed method. The performance of the proposed method is validated by using AMI measurements from the field and an actual distribution feeder model of San Diego Gas & Electric Company.

advanced metering infrastructure↗