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At least 937 records · Page 52

Development of a Portfolio Management Approach with Case Study of the NASA Airspace Systems Program

A portfolio management approach was developed for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA s) Airspace Systems Program (ASP). The purpose was to help inform ASP leadership regarding future investment decisions related to its existing portfolio of advanced technology concepts and capabilities (C/Cs) currently under development and to potentially identify new opportunities. The portfolio management approach is general in form and is extensible to other advanced technology development programs. It focuses on individual C/Cs and consists of three parts: 1) concept of operations (con-ops) development, 2) safety impact assessment, and 3) benefit-cost-risk (B-C-R) assessment. The first two parts are recommendations to ASP leaders and will be discussed only briefly, while the B-C-R part relates to the development of an assessment capability and will be discussed in greater detail. The B-C-R assessment capability enables estimation of the relative value of each C/C as compared with all other C/Cs in the ASP portfolio. Value is expressed in terms of a composite weighted utility function (WUF) rating, based on estimated benefits, costs, and risks. Benefit utility is estimated relative to achieving key NAS performance objectives, which are outlined in the ASP Strategic Plan.1 Risk utility focuses on C/C development and implementation risk, while cost utility focuses on the development and implementation portions of overall C/C life-cycle costs. Initial composite ratings of the ASP C/Cs were successfully generated; however, the limited availability of B-C-R information, which is used as inputs to the WUF model, reduced the meaningfulness of these initial investment ratings. Development of this approach, however, defined specific information-generation requirements for ASP C/C developers that will increase the meaningfulness of future B-C-R ratings.

Neitzke, Kurt W.↗

Lidar-Based Estimates of Above-Ground Biomass in the Continental US and Mexico Using Ground, Airborne, and Satellite Observations

Existing national forest inventory plots, an airborne lidar scanning (ALS) system, and a space profiling lidar system (ICESat-GLAS) are used to generate circa 2005 estimates of total aboveground dry biomass (AGB) in forest strata, by state, in the continental United States (CONUS) and Mexico. The airborne lidar is used to link ground observations of AGB to space lidar measurements. Two sets of models are generated, the first relating ground estimates of AGB to airborne laser scanning (ALS) measurements and the second set relating ALS estimates of AGB (generated using the first model set) to GLAS measurements. GLAS then, is used as a sampling tool within a hybrid estimation framework to generate stratum-, state-, and national-level AGB estimates. A two-phase variance estimator is employed to quantify GLAS sampling variability and, additively, ALS-GLAS model variability in this current, three-phase (ground-ALS-space lidar) study. The model variance component characterizes the variability of the regression coefficients used to predict ALS-based estimates of biomass as a function of GLAS measurements. Three different types of predictive models are considered in CONUS to determine which produced biomass totals closest to ground-based national forest inventory estimates - (1) linear (LIN), (2) linear-no-intercept (LNI), and (3) log-linear. For CONUS at the national level, the GLAS LNI model estimate (23.95 +/- 0.45 Gt AGB), agreed most closely with the US national forest inventory ground estimate, 24.17 +/- 0.06 Gt, i.e., within 1%. The national biomass total based on linear ground-ALS and ALS-GLAS models (25.87 +/- 0.49 Gt) overestimated the national ground-based estimate by 7.5%. The comparable log-linear model result (63.29 +/-1.36 Gt) overestimated ground results by 261%. All three national biomass GLAS estimates, LIN, LNI, and log-linear, are based on 241,718 pulses collected on 230 orbits. The US national forest inventory (ground) estimates are based on 119,414 ground plots. At the US state level, the average absolute value of the deviation of LNI GLAS estimates from the comparable ground estimate of total biomass was 18.8% (range: Oregon,−40.8% to North Dakota, 128.6%). Log-linear models produced gross overestimates in the continental US, i.e., N2.6x, and the use of this model to predict regional biomass using GLAS data in temperate, western hemisphere forests is not appropriate. The best model form, LNI, is used to produce biomass estimates in Mexico. The average biomass density in Mexican forests is 53.10 +/- 0.88 t/ha, and the total biomass for the country, given a total forest area of 688,096 sq km, is 3.65 +/- 0.06 Gt. In Mexico, our GLAS biomass total underestimated a 2005 FAO estimate (4.152 Gt) by 12% and overestimated a 2007/8 radar study's figure (3.06 Gt) by 19%.

Hybrid 3-Phase sampling↗

Methods of Constructing a Blended Performance Function Suitable for Formation Flight

Two methods for constructing performance functions for formation fight-for-drag-reduction suitable for use with an extreme-seeking control system are presented. The first method approximates an a prior measured or estimated drag-reduction performance function by combining real-time measurements of readily available parameters. The parameters are combined with weightings determined from a minimum squares optimization to form a blended performance function.

control systems↗

Isolating Added Mass Load Components of CPAS Main Clusters

The current simulation for the Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) lacks fidelity in representing added mass for the 116 ft Do ringsail Main parachute. The availability of 3-D models of inflating Main canopies allowed for better estimation the enclosed air volume as a function of time. This was combined with trajectory state information to estimate the components making up measured axial loads. A proof-of-concept for an alternate simulation algorithm was developed based on enclosed volume as the primary independent variable rather than drag area growth. Databases of volume growth and parachute drag area vs. volume were developed for several flight tests. Other state information was read directly from test data, rather than numerically propagated. The resulting simulated peak loads were close in timing and magnitude to the measured loads data. However, results are very sensitive to data curve fitting and may not be suitable for Monte Carlo simulations. It was assumed that apparent mass was either negligible or a small fraction of enclosed mass, with little difference in results.

Ray, Eric S.↗

Microwave remote sensing of soil moisture, volume 1

Multifrequency sensor data from NASA's C-130 aircraft were used to determine which of the all weather microwave sensors demonstrated the highest correlation to surface soil moisture over optimal bare soil conditions, and to develop and test techniques which use visible/infrared sensors to compensate for the vegetation effect in this sensor's response to soil moisture. The L-band passive microwave radiometer was found to be the most suitable single sensor system to estimate soil moisture over bare fields. The perpendicular vegetation index (PVI) as determined from the visible/infrared sensors was useful as a measure of the vegetation effect on the L-band radiometer response to soil moisture. A linear equation was developed to estimate percent field capacity as a function of L-band emissivity and the vegetation index. The prediction algorithm improves the estimation of moisture significantly over predictions from L-band emissivity alone.

Mcfarland, M. J.↗

Analysis of the Behavior of Individual Emission Sites on the Surface of a Multi-Tip Field Cathode

A method of analysis of the surface of multi-tip field cathodes using data obtained with the aid of a computer-controlled field emission projector and a system of fast high-voltage scanning is described. An investigation of a polymer/carbon nanotube composite field electron emitter by this method was used to determine the distribution of individual emission sites over the surface of a multi-tip field cathode and to estimate variation of the work function of separate emission sites depending on the applied voltage. The contributions of separate groups of emission sites to a change of the shape of current–voltage characteristic of a multi-tip cathode have been numerically estimated.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Visualizing Orbital Content of Electronic Bands in Anisotropic 2D Semiconducting ReSe 2

Many properties of layered materials change as they are thinned from their bulk forms down to single layers, with examples including indirect-to-direct band gap transition in 2H semiconducting transition metal dichalcogenides as well as thickness-dependent changes in the valence band structure in post-transition-metal monochalcogenides and black phosphorus. Here, we use angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy to study the electronic band structure of monolayer ReSe 2 , a semiconductor with a distorted 1T structure and in-plane anisotropy. By changing the polarization of incoming photons, we demonstrate that for ReSe 2 , in contrast to the 2H materials, the out-of-plane transition metal dz2 and chalcogen pz orbitals do not contribute significantly to the top of the valence band, which explains the reported weak changes in the electronic structure of this compound as a function of layer number. We estimate a band gap of 1.7 eV in pristine ReSe 2 using scanning tunneling spectroscopy and explore the implications on the gap following surface doping with potassium. Additionally, a lower bound of 1.4 eV is estimated for the gap in the fully doped case, suggesting that doping-dependent many-body effects significantly affect the electronic properties of ReSe 2 . Our results, supported by density functional theory calculations, provide insight into the mechanisms behind polarization-dependent optical properties of rhenium dichalcogenides and highlight their place among two-dimensional crystals.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

How accurate are static polarizability predictions from density functional theory? An assessment over 132 species at equilibrium geometry

Static polarizabilities are the first response of the electron density to electric fields, and are therefore important for predicting intermolecular and molecule-field interactions. They also offer a global measure of the accuracy of the treatment of excited states by density functionals in a formally exact manner. We have developed a database of benchmark static polarizabilities for 132 small species at equilibrium geometry, using coupled cluster theory through triple excitations (extrapolated to the complete basis set limit), for the purpose of developing and assessing density functionals. The performance of 60 popular and recent functionals are also assessed, which indicates that double hybrid functionals perform the best, having RMS relative errors in the range of 2.5-3.8%. Many hybrid functionals also give quite reasonable estimates with 4-5% RMS relative error. A few meta-GGAs like mBEEF and MVS yield performance comparable to hybrids, indicating potential for improved excited state predictions relative to typical local functionals. Some recent functionals however are found to be prone to catastrophic failure (possibly as a consequence of overparameterization), indicating a need for caution in applying these.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Image Moment-Based Extended Object Tracking for Complex Motions

A novel image moment-based model for shape estimation and tracking of an extended target moving with a complex trajectory is presented. The proposed extended object tracking algorithm is based on multiple noisy measurement points sampled from the target at each time step. The shape of the object, approximated by an ellipse, is estimated using a combination of image moments. Dynamic models of image moments for constant velocity and coordinated turn motions are mathematically derived. An unscented Kalman filter - interacting multiple model (UKF-IMM) method is used to track the object and estimate its shape. A likelihood function based on average log-likelihood is derived for the IMM filter. Simulation results of the proposed UKF-IMM algorithm with the image momentbased models are presented that show the estimation of the shape of the object moving in a complex trajectory. The intersection over union (IoU), and the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the position and velocity of the centroid of the ellipse are used as metrics. The comparison results of the proposed algorithm with a benchmark algorithm from literature based on the IoU and RMSE metrics are presented.

Extended object tracking↗

An investigation of new methods for estimating parameter sensitivities

Parameter sensitivity is defined as the estimation of changes in the modeling functions and the design variables due to small changes in the fixed parameters of the formulation. There are currently several methods for estimating parameter sensitivities requiring either difficult to obtain second order information, or do not return reliable estimates for the derivatives. Additionally, all the methods assume that the set of active constraints does not change in a neighborhood of the estimation point. If the active set does in fact change, than any extrapolations based on these derivatives may be in error. The objective here is to investigate more efficient new methods for estimating parameter sensitivities when the active set changes. The new method is based on the recursive quadratic programming (RQP) method and in conjunction a differencing formula to produce estimates of the sensitivities. This is compared to existing methods and is shown to be very competitive in terms of the number of function evaluations required. In terms of accuracy, the method is shown to be equivalent to a modified version of the Kuhn-Tucker method, where the Hessian of the Lagrangian is estimated using the BFS method employed by the RPQ algorithm. Inital testing on a test set with known sensitivities demonstrates that the method can accurately calculate the parameter sensitivity. To handle changes in the active set, a deflection algorithm is proposed for those cases where the new set of active constraints remains linearly independent. For those cases where dependencies occur, a directional derivative is proposed. A few simple examples are included for the algorithm, but extensive testing has not yet been performed.

Beltracchi, Todd J.↗

The autocorrelation properties of fluctuations in the cosmic X-ray background

The HEAO 1 A-2 all-sky survey data have been analyzed to investigate the autocorrelation function of the surface brightness fluctuations of the extragalactic 2-10 keV X-ray background on angular scales ranging from 3 to 27 deg. The derived upper limits are compatible with optical estimates of the spatial correlation function of Abell's clusters and set interesting constraints on possible AGN clustering.

Persic, M.↗

The two-point correlation function covariance with fewer mocks

We present FITCOV an approach for accurate estimation of the covariance of two-point correlation functions that requires fewer mocks than the standard mock-based covariance. This can be achieved by dividing a set of mocks into jackknife regions and fitting the correction term first introduced in Mohammad & Percival (2022), such that the mean of the jackknife covariances corresponds to the one from the mocks. This extends the model beyond the shot-noise limited regime, allowing it to be used for denser samples of galaxies. We test the performance of our fitted jackknife approach, both in terms of accuracy and precision, using lognormal mocks with varying densities and approximate EZmocks mimicking the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument LRG and ELG samples in the redshift range of z = [0.8, 1.1]. We find that the Mohammad–Percival correction produces a bias in the two-point correlation function covariance matrix that grows with number density and that our fitted jackknife approach does not. We also study the effect of the covariance on the uncertainty of cosmological parameters by performing a full-shape analysis. We demonstrate that our fitted jackknife approach based on 25 mocks can recover unbiased and as precise cosmological parameters as the ones obtained from a covariance matrix based on 1000 or 1500 mocks, while the Mohammad–Percival correction produces uncertainties that are twice as large.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Numerical experience with a class of algorithms for nonlinear optimization using inexact function and gradient information

For optimization problems associated with engineering design, parameter estimation, image reconstruction, and other optimization/simulation applications, low accuracy function and gradient values are frequently much less expensive to obtain than high accuracy values. Here, researchers investigate the computational performance of trust region methods for nonlinear optimization when high accuracy evaluations are unavailable or prohibitively expensive, and confirm earlier theoretical predictions when the algorithm is convergent even with relative gradient errors of 0.5 or more. The proper choice of the amount of accuracy to use in function and gradient evaluations can result in orders-of-magnitude savings in computational cost.

Carter, Richard G.↗

Thin-Film Thermal Conductivity Measurements Using Superconducting Nanowires

We present a simple experimental scheme for estimating the cryogenic thermal transport properties of thin films using superconducting nanowires. In a parallel array of nanowires, the heat from one nanowire in the normal state changes the local temperature around adjacent nanowires, reducing their switching current. Calibration of this change in switching current as a function of bath temperature provides an estimate of the temperature as a function of displacement from the heater. This provides a method of determining the contribution of substrate heat transport to the cooling time of superconducting nanowire single-photon detectors. Understanding this process is necessary for successful electrothermal modeling of superconducting nanowire systems.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Thin Film Thermal Conductivity Measurements using Superconducting Nanowires

We present a simple experimental scheme for estimating the cryogenic thermal transport properties of thin films using superconducting nanowires. In a parallel array of nanowires, the heat from one nanowire in the normal state changes the local temperature around adjacent nanowires, reducing their switching current. Calibration of this change in switching current as a function of bath temperature provides an estimate of the temperature as a function of displacement from the heater. This provides a method of determining the contribution of substrate heat transport to the cooling time of superconducting nanowire single photon detectors. Understanding this process is necessary for successful electrothermal modeling of superconducting nanowire systems.

Shaw, M. D.↗

Size estimates of Titan's aerosols based on Voyager high-phase-angle images

Limits on the physical properties of the scattering haze near the top of Titan's atmosphere are derived from data obtained from seven high-phase-angle images from Voyager 1 and 2. From the ratio of the intensities observed at two different high phase angles, an estimate can be made of the forward-scattering lobe of the single-scattering phase function. Comparing the forward-scattering estimate with diffraction lobes from particles of different radii, it is concluded that the average radius of the particles found in the upper few tenths of an optical depth exceeds 0.19 micron. Judging from data observed at four different phase angles, the haze particles probably have a refractive index near 1.6 and a mean size of about 0.5 micron, if the widths of their diffraction peaks are close to those for equal-volume spheres. However, the highly polarizing nature of the particles over a broad wavelength-bandpass (Tomasko and Smith, 1982; West et al, 1983) combined with their forward-scattering behavior makes it very unlikely that the particles are spherical. The nonsphericity contributes to the uncertainty about the radii of the particles, but it is thought that the average radius is several tenths of a micron.

Rages, K.↗