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DOE OSTI2017

Feedback control design for non-inductively sustained scenarios in NSTX-U using TRANSP

This paper examines a method for real-time control of non-inductively sustained scenarios in NSTX-U by using TRANSP, a time-dependent integrated modeling code for prediction and interpretive analysis of tokamak experimental data, as a simulator. The actuators considered for control in this work are the six neutral beam sources and the plasma boundary shape. To understand the response of the plasma current, stored energy, and central safety factor to these actuators and to enable systematic design of control algorithms, simulations were run in which the actuators were modulated and a linearized dynamic response model was generated. A multi-variable model-based control scheme that accounts for the coupling and slow dynamics of the system while mitigating the effect of actuator limitations was designed and simulated. Simulations show that modest changes in the outer gap and heating power can improve the response time of the system, reject perturbations, and track target values of the controlled values.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

High Penetration of Photovoltaic Generation Study – Flagstaff Community Power (Final Technical Report, Results of Phases 2-5)

APS’s renewable energy portfolio, driven in part by Arizona’s Renewable Energy Standard (RES) currently includes more than 1100 MW of installed capacity, equating to roughly 3000 GWh of annual production. Overall renewable production is expected to grow to 6000 GWh by 2025. It is expected that distributed photovoltaics, driven primarily by lower cost, will contribute to much of this growth and that by 2025, distributed installations will account for half of all renewable production (3000GHW). As solar penetration increases, additional analysis may be required for routine utility processes to ensure continued safe and reliable operation of the electric distribution network. Such processes include residential or commercial interconnection requests and load shifting during normal feeder operations. Circuits with existing high solar penetration will also have to be studied and results will need to be evaluated for adherence to utility practices or strategy. Increased distributed PV penetration may offer benefits such as load offsetting, but it also has the potential to adversely impact distribution system operation. These effects may be exacerbated by the rapid variability of PV production. Detailed effects of these phenomena in distributed PV applications continue to be studied. Comprehensive, high-resolution electrical models of the distribution system were developed to analyze the impacts of PV on distribution circuit protection systems (including coordination and anti-islanding), predict voltage regulation and phase balance issues, and develop volt/VAr control schemes. Modeling methods were refined by validating against field measurements. To augment the field measurements, methods were developed to synthesize high resolution load and PV generation data to facilitate quasi-static time series simulations. The models were then extended to explore boundary conditions for PV hosting capability of the feeder and to simulate common utility practices such as feeder reconfiguration. The modeling and analysis methodology was implemented using open source tools and a process was developed to aid utility engineers in future interconnection requests. Methods to increase PV hosting capacity were also explored during the course of the study. A 700kVA grid-supportive inverter was deployed on the feeder and each grid support mode was demonstrated. Energy storage was explored through simulation and models were developed to calculate the optimum size and placement needed to increase PV hosting capacity. A tool was developed to aid planners in assigning relative costs and benefits to various strategies for increasing PV hosting capacity beyond current levels. Following the completion of the project, APS intends to use the tools and methods to improve the framework of future PV integration on its system. The tools and methods are also expected to aid other utilities to accelerate distributed PV deployment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

A dynamic model of wind turbine yaw for active farm control

This paper presents a graph-based dynamic yaw model to predict the dynamic response of the hub-height velocities and the power of a wind farm to a change in yaw. The model builds on previous work where the turbines define the nodes of the graph and the edges represent the interactions between turbines. Advances associated with the dynamic yaw model include a novel analytical description of the deformation of wind turbine wakes under yaw to represent the velocity deficits and a more accurate representation of the interturbine travel time of wakes. The accuracy of the model is improved by coupling it with time- and space-dependent estimates of the wind farm inflow based on real-time data from the wind farm. The model is validated both statically and dynamically using large-eddy simulations. An application of the model is presented that incorporates the model into an optimal control loop to control the farm power output.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Mathematical Modeling of Electrochemical Flow Capacitors

Electrochemical flow capacitors (EFCs) for grid-scale energy storage are a new technology that is beginning to receive interest. Prediction of the expected performance of such systems is important as modeling can be a useful avenue in the search for design improvements. Models based off of circuit analogues exist to predict EFC performance, but these suffer from deficiencies (e.g. a multitude of fitting constants that are required and the ability to analyze only one spatial direction at a time). In this paper mathematical models based off of three-dimensional macroscopic balances (similar to models for porous electrodes) are reported. Unlike existing three-dimensional porous electrode-based approaches for modeling slurry electrodes, advection (i.e., transport associated with bulk fluid motion) of the overpotential is included in order to account for the surface charge at the interface between flowing particles and the electrolyte. Doing so leads to the presence of overpotential boundary layers that control the performance of EFCs. These models were used to predict the charging behavior of an EFC under both flowing and non-flowing conditions. Agreement with experimental data was good, including proper prediction of the steady-state current that is achieved during charging of a flowing EFC. (C) The Author(s) 2015. Published by ECS. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives 4.0 License (CC BY-NC-ND, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is not changed in any way and is properly cited. For permission for commercial reuse, please email: oa@electrochem.org. All rights reserved.

Hoyt, NC↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Physics-Constrained Deep Learning Model for Simulating Multiphase Flow in 3D Heterogeneous Porous Media

Physics-based simulators for multiphase flow in porous media emulate nonlinear processes with coupled physics, and usually require extensive computational resources for software development, maintenance and simulation execution. As a result, a huge demand exists for fast modeling of coupled processes in a wide range of subsurface applications including geological sequestration, hydrocarbon recovery and geothermal energy extraction. In this work, an efficient physics-constrained deep learning model is developed for solving multiphase flow in 3-Dimensional (3D) heterogeneous porous media. The model fully leverages the spatial topology predictive capability of convolutional neural networks, specifically U-Net with successive contracting and expansive steps, and is coupled with an efficient continuity-based smoother to predict flow responses that need spatial continuity. Furthermore, the transient regions are penalized to steer the training process such that the model can accurately capture flow in these regions. The model takes inputs including properties of porous media, fluid properties and well controls, and predicts the temporal-spatial evolution of the state variables (pressure and saturation). While maintaining the continuity of fluid flow, the 3D spatial domain is decomposed into 2D images for reducing training cost, and the decomposition results in an increased number of training data samples and better training efficiency. Additionally, a surrogate model is separately constructed as a postprocessor to calculate well flow rate based on the predictions of state variables from the deep learning model. We use the example of CO 2 injection into saline aquifers, and apply the physics-constrained deep learning model that is trained from physics-based simulation data and emulates the physics process. The model performs prediction with a speedup of ~ 1400 times compared to physics-based simulations, and the average temporal errors of predicted pressure and saturation plumes are 0.27% and 0.099% respectively. Furthermore, water production rate is efficiently predicted by a surrogate model for well flow rate, with a mean error less than 5%. Therefore, with its unique scheme to cope with the fidelity in fluid flow in porous media, the physics-constrained deep learning model can become an efficient predictive model for computationally demanding inverse problems or other coupled processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Aligning theoretical and empirical representations of soil carbon-to-nitrogen stoichiometry with process-based terrestrial biogeochemistry models

Soil carbon-nitrogen (C:N) stoichiometry acts as a control over decomposition and soil organic matter formation and loss, making it a key soil property for understanding ecosystem dynamics and projected ecosystems responses to global environmental change. However, the controls of soil C:N and how they respond to increasing pressures from global change agents are not fully understood. The “foundational” controls on soil C:N, namely plant and microbial C:N, have been used to predict soil C:N, but fail to accurately simulate all ecosystems and may be insufficient for predictions under global environmental change. Here we present an “emerging” representation of controls of soil C:N that includes plant-microbe-mineral feedbacks that have been shown to regulate soil C:N. We argue that including representation of these emerging drivers in process-based terrestrial biogeochemistry models, which include biological N fixation, mycorrhizae, priming, root exudation of organic acids, and mineralogy (including soil texture, mineral composition, and aggregation), will improve mechanistic representation of soil C:N and associated processes. Such improvements will produce models that will better simulate a variety of ecological states and predict soil C:N when global changes modify plant-microbe-mineral interactions. Here, we align our empirical understanding of controls of soil C:N with those controls represented in models, identifying contexts where emerging drivers might be particularly important to represent (e.g., priming and root exudation in nutrient-limited conditions) and areas of future work. Additionally, we show that implementing emerging drivers of soil C:N results in different simulated outcomes at steady state and in response to elevated atmospheric CO2. Our review and preliminary simulations support the need to incorporate emerging drivers of soil C:N into process-based terrestrial biogeochemistry models, allowing for both theoretical exploration of mechanisms and potentially more accurate predictions of land biogeochemical responses to global change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sensor Recommendations for Long Term Monitoring of the F-Area Seepage Basins

In mid-2018, a new paradigm for long-term monitoring was developed after of decade of applied research projects funded by the Department of Energy’s office of Environmental Management Technology Development program. The program at SRNL was focused on transitioning complex environmental waste sites from active to passive remediations strategies. A key result of these studies was that the use of enhanced attenuation approaches at radiologically contaminated sites will result in the creation of secondary source areas in the subsurface that will require monitoring for decades. Alternative monitoring approaches are being developed and tested at the Savannah River Site’s F-Area Hazardous Waste Management Facility, the new paradigm provides innovative solutions that will significantly lower costs of monitoring through the coupling of data collection, machine learning and deterministic groundwater modeling. The foundation of this approach is a well-optimized network of sensors for measuring hydrogeochemical master variables that control, and therefore act as indicators of groundwater contaminant transport. By monitoring changes in the controlling master variables over time arising from geological and environmental shifts, predictive modelling can assist with identifying new strategies for ensuring regulatory requirements are met if trends toward conditions for potential remobilization of attenuated contaminants are detected. In this report, we evaluated commercially available single parameter sensor platforms (e.g., temperature/depth) and configurable multi-parameter sensor platforms (e.g., pH, oxidation-reduction potential, temperature, depth, dissolved oxygen, and conductivity). Each was scored using an optimization function based on how well the system supports the proposed long-term monitoring paradigm, in general, and the site-specific conditions at F-Area, in particular. Several viable sensor systems were identified. Of these, a combined platform including the In-Situ Aqua TROLL 500 multi-parameter sensor platform and the In-Situ temperature/depth sensor had the highest rating and was identified as the most suitable candidate for installation and monitoring of the master variables and potentiometric surface that control groundwater contaminant plumes emanating from the F-Area Seepage Basins. The discussion of recommended potential deployment locations builds upon recommendations made by Denham et al (2019).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying Uncertainties in Earth's Energy Budget by Cloud Feedback and Ocean Heat Uptake Using E3SM-Slab Ocean Configurations

In order to improve predictive skills of Earth System Model, we need to better understand processes that control Earth's energy budget via ocean, atmosphere, and cryosphere interactions. Simulated energy budget in comprehensive Earth System Models shows a wide range, leading to large uncertainties in predicting Earth system dynamic and thermodynamic variations and associated social-economic impacts. Uncertainties in cloud feedbacks have been identified as the main cause of the large inter-model spread, but oceanic adjustments, especially those associated with ocean heat uptake (OHU) and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), also play an important role. In this proposed work, we focus on understanding the individual and combined roles of cloud feedbacks and ocean adjustments on modulating Earth's energy balance. This research is motivated by our overarching hypothesis that oceanic adjustment is a key source of uncertainty, in addition to those associated with the cloud feedbacks; further, the ocean adjustment and associated OHU work through the cloud feedbacks to modulate Earth's energy budget and temperature variations. We test this hypothesis using numerical experiments where we systematically enable and disable cloud feedbacks in conjunction with perturbations to OHU.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Implementation of AI/DEEP learning disruption predictor into a plasma control system

Abstract This paper reports on advances in the state‐of‐the‐art deep learning disruption prediction models based on the Fusion Recurrent Neural Network (FRNN) originally introduced in a 2019 NATURE publication [ https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586‐019‐1116‐4 ]. In particular, the predictor now features not only the “disruption score,” as an indicator of the probability of an imminent disruption, but also a “sensitivity score” in real time to indicate the underlying reasons for the imminent disruption. This adds valuable physics interpretability for the deep learning model and can provide helpful guidance for control actuators now implemented into a modern plasma control system (PCS). The advance is a significant step forward in moving from modern deep learning disruption prediction to real‐time control and brings novel AI‐enabled capabilities relevant for application to the future burning plasma ITER system. Our analyses use large amounts of data from JET and DIII‐D vetted in the earlier NATURE publication. In addition to “when” a shot is predicted to disrupt, this paper addresses reasons “why” by carrying out sensitivity studies. FRNN is accordingly extended to use more channels of information, including measured DIII‐D signals such as (i) the “n1rms” signal that is correlated with the n = 1 modes with finite frequency, including neoclassical tearing mode and sawtooth dynamics; (ii) the bolometer data indicative of plasma impurity control; and (iii) “q‐min”—the minimum value of the safety factor relevant to the key physics of kink modes. The additional channels and interpretability features expand the ability of the deep learning FRNN software to provide information about disruption subcategories as well as more precise and direct guidance for the actuators in a PCS.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Predicting the 5-Year Risk of Biochemical Relapse After Postprostatectomy Radiation Therapy in ≥PT2, pN0 Patients With a Comprehensive Tumor Control Probability Model

Purpose: To fit the individual biochemical recurrence-free survival (bRFS) data from patients treated with postprostatectomy radiation therapy (RT) with a comprehensive tumor control probability (TCP) model. Methods and Materials: Considering pre-RT prostate-specific antigen (PSA) as a surrogate of the number of clonogens, bRFS may be expressed as a function of dose-per-fraction–dependent radiosensitivity (α{sub eff}), the number of clonogens for pre-RT PSA = 1 ng/mL (C), and the fraction of patients who relapse because of clonogens outside the treated volume (K), assumed to depend (linearly or exponentially) on pre-RT PSA and Gleason score (GS). Data from 894 node-negative, ≥pT2, pN0 hormone-naive patients treated with adjuvant (n=331) or salvage (n=563) intent were available: 5-year bRFS data were fitted grouping patients according to GS (<7:392, =7:383, >7:119). Results: The median follow-up time, pre-RT PSA, and dose were 72 months, 0.25 ng/mL, and 66.6 Gy (range 59.4-77.4 Gy), respectively. The best-fit values were 0.23 to 0.26 Gy{sup −1} and 10{sup 7} for α{sub eff} and C for the model considering a linear dependence between K and PSA. Calibration plots showed good agreement between expected and observed incidences (slope: 0.90-0.93) and moderately high discriminative power (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.68-0.69). Cross-validation showed satisfactory results (average AUCs in the training/validation groups: 0.66-0.70). The resulting dose-effect curves strongly depend on pre-RT PSA and GS. bRFS rapidly decreases with PSA: the maximum obtainable bRFS (defined as 95% of the maximum) declined by about 2.7% and 4.5% for each increment of 0.1 ng/mL for GS <7 and ≥7, respectively. Conclusions: Individual data were fitted by a TCP model, and the resulting best-fit parameters were radiobiologically consistent. The model suggests that relapses frequently result from clonogens outside the irradiated volume, supporting the choice of lymph-node irradiation, systemic therapy, or both for specific subgroups (GS <7: PSA >0.8-1.0 ng/mL; GS ≥7: PSA >0.3 ng/mL). Early RT should be preferred over delayed RT; the detrimental effect of PSA increase can never be fully compensated by increasing the dose, especially for patients with GS ≥7.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2018

Dynamic Model of Basic Oxygen Steelmaking Process Based on Multizone Reaction Kinetics: Modeling of Manganese Removal

In the earlier study, a dynamic model for the BOF process based on the multizone reaction kinetics has been developed. In the preceding part, the mechanism of manganese transfer in three reactive zones of the converter has been analyzed. The study predicts that temperature at the slag–metal reaction interface plays a major role in the Mn reaction kinetics. Further, mathematical treatments to simulate the transient rate parameters associated with each reaction interface have been developed. The model calculations of Mn removal rate obtained from different zones of the converter predicts that the first stage of the blow is dominated by the oxidation of Mn at the jet impact zone, albeit some additional Mn refining has been observed as a result of the oxidation of metal droplets in emulsion phase. The simulation result shows that the reversion of Mn from slag to metal primarily takes place at the metal droplet in the emulsion due to an increase in slag–metal interface temperature during the middle stage of blowing. In the final stage of the blow, the competition between simultaneous reactions in jet impact and emulsion zone controls the direction of mass flow of manganese. Further, the model prediction shows that the Mn refining in the emulsion is a strong function of droplet diameter and the residence time. Smaller sized droplets approach equilibrium quickly and thus contribute to a significant Mn conversion between slag and metal compared to the larger sized ones. The overall model prediction for Mn in the hot metal has been found to be in good agreement with two data sets obtained from different size converters reported in the literature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Combining physics-based and data-driven models for quantitatively accurate plasma profile prediction that extrapolates well; with application to DIII-D, AUG, and ITER tokamaks

For design, scenario planning, and control, ITER and all other envisioned tokamaks rely on a variety of statistical and physics-based models to extrapolate to unseen regimes; most notably from low plasma current to high. A 'meta-learning' methodology for combining the accuracy of data-driven models with the generalizability of physics-based models is described and tested, yielding a 5–10 percent improvement in performance beyond either alone for the task of extrapolating time-dependent plasma profile prediction from low- to high- plasma current DIII-D tokamak discharges. Meanwhile, it is shown that both machine learning models extrapolated far-distribution and state-of-the-art 'physics-based' profile predictors fare worse than merely assuming plasma profiles do not change from their initial values. Finally, a variety of other mechanisms for helping data-driven models generalize—transfer learning, adding contextual information from physics simulators, and adding data from the ASDEX Upgrade tokamak—are attempted for similar extrapolation tasks but, in the methodology used in this paper, yield no significant improvement beyond simple data-driven models. Results are summarized in figures 15 and 16.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Recurrent neural networks for short-term and long-term prediction of geothermal reservoirs

Accurate prediction of geothermal reservoir responses to alternative energy production scenarios is critical for optimizing the development of the underlying resources. While the conventional physics-based models offer a comprehensive prediction tool, data-driven models provide an efficient alternative to build fit-for-purpose predictive models by extracting and using the statistical patterns in the collected data to make predictions. The recurrent neural network (RNN) is a data-driven model that is commonly applied to predict time series sequences. This paper presents a variant of RNN that also utilizes the efficiency of convolutional neural networks (CNN) for the prediction of energy production from geothermal reservoirs. Specifically, a CNN–RNN architecture is developed that takes historical well controls as input (features) and their corresponding production response data as output (labels) to learn an input-output mapping that can predict the future well production responses/performance for any given future well control inputs. The model is paired with a labeling scheme to handle real field disturbances that create data gaps. In addition to the model structure, we introduce a thorough workflow for applying the model, which includes data pre-processing, feature selection, as well as different training strategies for short-term and long-term prediction. Finally, the performance and accuracy of the model are evaluated by applying it to multiple datasets, including a field reservoir model.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2011

Fusion Simulation Program Execution Plan

The overall science goal of the FSP is to develop predictive simulation capability for magnetically confined fusion plasmas at an unprecedented level of integration and fidelity. This will directly support and enable effective U.S. participation in research related to the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) and the overall mission of delivering practical fusion energy. The FSP will address a rich set of scientific issues together with experimental programs, producing validated integrated physics results. This is very well aligned with the mission of the ITER Organization to coordinate with its members the integrated modeling and control of fusion plasmas, including benchmarking and validation activities. Initial FSP research will focus on two critical areas: 1) the plasma edge and 2) whole device modeling including disruption avoidance. The first of these problems involves the narrow plasma boundary layer and its complex interactions with the plasma core and the surrounding material wall. The second requires development of a computationally tractable, but comprehensive model that describes all equilibrium and dynamic processes at a sufficient level of detail to provide useful prediction of the temporal evolution of fusion plasma experiments. The initial driver for the whole device model (WDM) will be prediction and avoidance of discharge-terminating disruptions, especially at high performance, which are a critical impediment to successful operation of machines like ITER. If disruptions prove unable to be avoided, their associated dynamics and effects will be addressed in the next phase of the FSP. The FSP plan targets the needed modeling capabilities by developing Integrated Science Applications (ISAs) specific to their needs. The Pedestal-Boundary model will include boundary magnetic topology, cross-field transport of multi-species plasmas, parallel plasma transport, neutral transport, atomic physics and interactions with the plasma wall. It will address the origins and structure of the plasma electric field, rotation, the L-H transition, and the wide variety of pedestal relaxation mechanisms. The Whole Device Model will predict the entire discharge evolution given external actuators (i.e., magnets, power supplies, heating, current drive and fueling systems) and control strategies. Based on components operating over a range of physics fidelity, the WDM will model the plasma equilibrium, plasma sources, profile evolution, linear stability and nonlinear evolution toward a disruption (but not the full disruption dynamics). The plan assumes that, as the FSP matures and demonstrates success, the program will evolve and grow, enabling additional science problems to be addressed. The next set of integration opportunities could include: 1) Simulation of disruption dynamics and their effects; 2) Prediction of core profile including 3D effects, mesoscale dynamics and integration with the edge plasma; 3) Computation of non-thermal particle distributions, self-consistent with fusion, radio frequency (RF) and neutral beam injection (NBI) sources, magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) and short-wavelength turbulence.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling active control of resistive wall mode with power saturation and sensor noise on HL-2M

The resistive wall mode (RWM) control on the HL-2M tokamak is simulated with the MARS-F code (Liu et al 2000 Phys. Plasmas 7 3681), aiming at quantifying control current and voltage requirements when more realistic issues are taken into account, i.e. the control power saturation and the sensor signal noise. The fluid model predicts a narrow stability region for the n = 1 RWM without magnetic feedback, in the 2D parameter space of the plasma pressure versus the toroidal flow speed. Magnetic feedback can fully stabilize the RWM on HL-2M. Without considering the voltage limitation and the sensor signal noise, it is found that plasma flow helps active control of the mode, by reducing the required critical feedback gain for both flux-to-current and flux-to-voltage control schemes. In the absence of the sensor signal noise, the lowest control voltage saturation level, below which the RWM control is lost, is found to roughly satisfy a linear relation to the plasma flow frequency, indicating that subsonic plasma flow is effective in relaxing the control power requirement for the RWM feedback stabilization. The presence of the sensor signal noise substantially modifies the feedback results. A statistical study finds that the sensor signal noise, with the standard deviation of 0.1 G on HL-2M, roughly doubles the required control voltage for successful mode control. The synergistic stabilization effect due to plasma flow is somewhat weakened by the presence of the sensor signal noise. At a given rotation, the tolerable voltage limit generally increases with increasing feedback gain due to the sensor signal noise.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2023

How Well do Earth System Models Capture Apparent Relationships Between Phytoplankton Biomass and Environmental Variables?

Abstract As phytoplankton form the base of the marine food web, understanding the controls on their abundance is fundamental to understanding marine ecology and its sensitivity to global climate change. While many Earth System Models (ESMs) predict phytoplankton biomass, it is unclear whether they properly capture the mechanistic relationships that control this quantity in the real ocean. We used Random Forest analysis to analyze the output of 13 ESMs as well as two observational data sets. The target variable was phytoplankton carbon and the predictors included environmental parameters known to influence phytoplankton, including nutrients, light, mixed layer depth, salinity, temperature, and upwelling. We examined the following: (a) What fractions of variability in ESMs and observations can be linked to the large‐scale environmental variables simulated by ESMs? (b) What are the dominant predictors and relationships affecting phytoplankton biomass? (c) How well do ESMs simulate phytoplankton carbon and do they simulate the relationships we see in observations? About 88%–96% of the variability in observational data sets and greater than 98% in the ESMs was accounted for by environmental variables known to influence phytoplankton biomass. The dominant predictors in the observational data sets were shortwave radiation and dissolved iron, with temperature and ammonium also relatively important. All the ESMs show that shortwave radiation is the most important variable and most of them predict the right sign of sensitivity to most variables. However, the models predict that biomass reaches maximum levels at unrealistically low levels of iron and unrealistically high levels of light.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-R-44: Modeling Lung SBRT Tumor Response Using Bayesian Network Averaging

Purpose: The prediction of tumor control after a patient receives lung SBRT (stereotactic body radiation therapy) has proven to be challenging, due to the complex interactions between an individual’s biology and dose-volume metrics. Many of these variables have predictive power when combined, a feature that we exploit using a graph modeling approach based on Bayesian networks. This provides a probabilistic framework that allows for accurate and visually intuitive predictive modeling. The aim of this study is to uncover possible interactions between an individual patient’s characteristics and generate a robust model capable of predicting said patient’s treatment outcome. Methods: We investigated a cohort of 32 prospective patients from multiple institutions whom had received curative SBRT to the lung. The number of patients exhibiting tumor failure was observed to be 7 (event rate of 22%). The serum concentration of 5 biomarkers previously associated with NSCLC (non-small cell lung cancer) was measured pre-treatment. A total of 21 variables were analyzed including: dose-volume metrics with BED (biologically effective dose) correction and clinical variables. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique estimated the posterior probability distribution of the potential graphical structures. The probability of tumor failure was then estimated by averaging the top 100 graphs and applying Baye’s rule. Results: The optimal Bayesian model generated throughout this study incorporated the PTV volume, the serum concentration of the biomarker EGFR (epidermal growth factor receptor) and prescription BED. This predictive model recorded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.94(1), providing better performance compared to competing methods in other literature. Conclusion: The use of biomarkers in conjunction with dose-volume metrics allows for the generation of a robust predictive model. The preliminary results of this report demonstrate that it is possible to accurately model the prognosis of an individual lung SBRT patient’s treatment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Comprehensive Simulation Study to Evaluate Future Vehicle Energy and Cost Reduction Potential

Under the umbrella of EERE’s Office of Sustainable Transportation, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO) seek to develop sustainable, affordable, and efficient technologies for transportation of goods and people. Translating investments in advanced transportation component technologies and powertrains to estimate the potential for vehicle-level fuel savings is critical to understanding DOE’s impact and success in this mission For this study, Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) simulated technologies funded by VTO and HFTO for light-duty vehicles across the following: Powertrain configurations (conventional, power-split hybrid electric vehicle, extended-range electric vehicle, battery electric drive, and fuel-cell vehicles); Vehicle classes (compact car, mid-size car, small sport utility vehicle [SUV], mid-size SUV, and pickup truck); Fuels (gasoline, diesel, natural gas, hydrogen, and battery electricity). We assessed each technology for five different timeframes: laboratory years 2015 (reference), 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2045. We assumed a delay of 5 years between laboratory year and model year (i.e., the year the technology is introduced into production). Finally, we included uncertainties for both technology performance and cost by considering two cases (note that these cases are not intended as predictions of future performance): Low case , aligned with DOE technology manager estimates of expected original equipment manufacturer (OEM) improvements based on business as usual regulatory and market environments; High case , aligned with aggressive technology advancements based on research and development (R&D) targets developed through support by VTO and HFTO. We estimated the energy and cost impact of different technologies using Autonomie (Argonne undated), a state-of-the-art vehicle system simulation tool developed by Argonne and used to assess the energy consumption, performance, and cost of multiple advanced vehicle technologies. The tool comprises a complete set of vehicle models to assess impacts across a wide range of classes (from light- to heavy-duty), powertrain configurations (from conventional to hybrid electric vehicles [HEVs], fuel cell electric vehicles [FCEVs], plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [PHEVs], and battery electric vehicles [BEVs]), components, and control strategies, including vehicle-level and component-level controls developed and calibrated using dynamometer test data. Autonomie has been used to support a wide range of studies: analyzing various component technologies, sizing powertrain components to meet different vehicle requirements, comparing the benefits of powertrain configurations, optimizing both heuristic and route-based vehicle energy control, and predicting transportation energy use when paired with a traffic modeling tool such as POLARIS. This report documents the assumptions made and the vehicle-level energy consumption benefits and associated technology costs estimated for various types of light-duty vehicles. Details regarding vehicle assumptions and simulation results are available in the spreadsheets accompanying this report.

08 HYDROGEN↗