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At least 937 records · Page 52

Reactor antineutrino flux and anomaly

Reactor antineutrinos have played a significant role in establishing the standard model of particle physics and the theory of neutrino oscillations. In this article, we review the reactor antineutrino flux and in particular the reactor antineutrino anomaly (RAA) coined over a decade ago. RAA refers to a deficit of the measured antineutrino inverse beta decay rates at very short-baseline reactor experiments compared to the theoretically improved predictions (i.e. the Huber–Mueller model). Since the resolution of several previous experimental anomalies have led to the discovery of non-zero neutrino mass and mixing, many efforts have been invested to study the origin of RAA both experimentally and theoretically. The progress includes the observation of discrepancies in antineutrino energy spectrum between data and the Huber–Mueller model, the re-evaluation of the Huber–Mueller model uncertainties, the potential isotope-dependent rate deficits, and the better agreement between data and new model predictions using the improved summation method. Importantly, these developments disfavor the hypothesis of a light sterile neutrino as the explanation of RAA and supports the deficiencies of Huber–Mueller model as the origin. Looking forward, more effort from both the theoretical and experimental sides is needed to fully understand the root of RAA and to make accurate predictions of reactor antineutrino flux and energy spectrum for future discoveries.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

On the Issue of Excess Lower Stratospheric Subtropical Transport in GEOS-DAS

In recent years, data assimilation has become an indispensable tool for our understanding of the global features of meteorological variables. However, assessments of transport characteristics using trajectory related methods as well as chemical transport models (CTMs) show that results derived from assimilated (or analyzed) winds exhibit significantly larger mixing and entrainment rates compared to results derived from GCM winds, which are closer to results derived from observations (e.g., Douglass et al., 2002; Schoeberl et al., 2002). This discrepancy presents a serious challenge to our ability to understand and model global trace gas transport and distribution. We use the GEOS-DAS to explore this issue by examining how the process of data assimilation alters the dynamics of the underlying GCM and how this leads to the excess of lower stratospheric mixing and transport in the subtropics. In particular, we show that significant model biases in tropical winds necessitate large analysis increments. These increments directly force large subtropical regions of instability with negative PV gradient on the one hand, and generate excessive noise in the tropical wind fields on the other. The result is an excess of transport in the lower stratospheric subtropics.

Tan, Wei-Wu↗

Land carbon models underestimate the severity and duration of drought’s impact on plant productivity

The ability to precisely predict ecosystem drought response and recovery is necessary to produce reliable forecasts of land carbon uptake and future climate. Using a suite of models from the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we assessed modeled net primary productivity (NPP) response to, and recovery from, drought events against a benchmark derived from tree ring observations between 1948 and 2008 across forested regions of the US and Europe. We find short lag times (0–6 months) between climate anomalies and modeled NPP response. Even though models accurately simulate the direction of drought legacy effects (i.e. NPP decreases), projected effects are approximately four times shorter and four times weaker than observations suggest. This discrepancy between observed and simulated vegetation recovery from drought reveals a potential critical model deficiency. Since productivity is a crucial component of the land carbon balance, models that underestimate drought recovery time could overestimate predictions of future land carbon sink strength and, consequently, underestimate forecasts of atmospheric CO 2 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Transport coefficient sensitivities in a semi-analytic model for magnetized liner inertial fusion

Performance of magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) experiments is highly dependent on transport processes including magnetized heat flows and magnetic flux losses. Magnetohydrodynamic simulations used to model these experiments require a choice of model for the transport coefficients, which are the constants of proportionality relating driving terms, such as temperature gradients and currents, to the associated heat and magnetic field transport. The coefficients have been the subject of repeated recalculation using various methods throughout the years. Using a semi-analytic MagLIF model, we compare models for the transport coefficients. The choice of model modifies magnetic-flux losses caused by the Nernst thermoelectric effect and thermal conduction losses. We present simulated results from parameter scans conducted in order to compare the effects of the different models on parameters of interest in MagLIF. In some regions of parameter space, discrepancies of up to 38% are found in integrated quantities like the fusion yield. These results may serve as a guide for experimental validation of the various models, particularly as laser preheat energies and initial axial field strengths are increased on MagLIF experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The Aries auroral modelling campaign - Characterization and modelling of an evening auroral arc observed from a rocket and a ground-based line of meridian scanners

A summary of the Aries experiments and results is presented with specific attention given to the tomographic analysis developed from ground-based photometric data. The instrumentation includes particle detectors, rocket photometers, plasma probes, and 1-deg meridian scanning photometers, and an all-sky TV system. The geophysical conditions during the observations are described including the auroral features and wavelengths, rocket trajectories, and the effectiveness of particle measurements. The tomographic inversion is explained with examples of rocket-photometer height data and contrasted with ground-based photometric data. The modeling techniques used to derive height profiles are described and indirectly compared to measured auroral intensities and intensity ratios. An enhancement of atomic oxygen is inferred from discrepancies with previous studies which confirm the difference between observed intensity ratios and modeled results.

Jones, A. V.↗

Land carbon models underestimate the severity and duration of drought’s impact on plant productivity

The ability to accurately predict ecosystem drought response and recovery is necessary to produce reliable forecasts of land carbon uptake and future climate. Using a suite of models from the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we assessed modeled net primary productivity (NPP) response to, and recovery from, drought events against a benchmark derived from tree ring observations between 1948 and 2008 across forested regions of the US and Europe. We find short lag times (0–6 months) between climate anomalies and modeled NPP response. Although models accurately simulate the direction of drought legacy effects (i.e. NPP decreases), projected effects are approximately four times shorter and four times weaker than observations suggest. This discrepancy between observed and simulated vegetation recovery from drought reveals a potential critical model deficiency. Since productivity is a crucial component of the land carbon balance, models that underestimate drought recovery time could overestimate predictions of future land carbon sink strength and, consequently, underestimate forecasts of atmospheric CO2.

carbon cycle↗

Modeling receiver flux of commercial power tower concentrating solar power plants using ray tracing: a round-robin comparison of SolTrace, Solstice, and TieSOL

This study presents a multi-stage, cross-validation comparison of three software packages for Monte Carlo ray tracing (MCRT) applied to central tower concentrating solar power (CSP) systems. The three packages evaluated are: (1) SolTrace, an open-source tool developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL); (2) Solstice, an open-source program created by CNRS-PROMES and Meso-Star, with enhancements for CSP applications (called solsticepy) from the Australian National University; and (3) TieSOL, a commercial software developed by Tietronix. This investigation extends previous ray tracing comparisons by incorporating models of multi-facet heliostats within a commercial-scale solar field, taking into account zoned focal lengths and canting configurations. Receiver flux distributions were compared across the tools using a series of case studies, including single-heliostat scenarios, isolated blocking situations, and comprehensive full-field simulations. The case studies were designed to diagnose differences across the models at varying levels of complexity, and to identify and resolve discrepancies as additional parameters were introduced. Key factors examined in the analysis include sun positions, heliostat location, facet and canting focus, and aimpoint strategies. The comparison aims to improve the accuracy and reliability of these tools while providing benchmark cases for validating future optical modeling tools.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Ames S-32 O-16 O-18 Line List for High-Resolution Experimental IR Analysis

By comparing to the most recent experimental data and spectra of the SO2 628 ν1/ν3 bands (see Ulenikov et al., JQSRT 168 (2016) 29-39), this study illustrates the reliability and accuracy of the Ames-296K SO2 line list, which is accurate enough to facilitate such high-resolution spectroscopic analysis. The SO2 628 IR line list is computed on a recently improved potential energy surface (PES) refinement, denoted Ames-Pre2, and the published purely ab initio CCSD(T)/aug-cc-pVQZ dipole moment surface. Progress has been made in both energy level convergence and rovibrational quantum number assignments agreeing with laboratory analysis models. The accuracy of the computed 628 energy levels and line list is similar to what has been achieved and reported for SO2 626 and 646, i.e. 0.01-0.03 cm(exp −1) for bands up to 5500 cm(exp −1). During the comparison, we found some discrepancies in addition to overall good agreements. The three-IR-list based feature-by-feature analysis in a 0.25 cm(exp −1) spectral window clearly demonstrates the power of the current Ames line lists with new assignments, correction of some errors, and intensity contributions from varied sources including other isotopologues. We are inclined to attribute part of detected discrepancies to an incomplete experimental analysis and missing intensity in the model. With complete line position, intensity, and rovibrational quantum numbers determined at 296 K, spectroscopic analysis is significantly facilitated especially for a spectral range exhibiting such an unusually high density of lines. The computed 628 rovibrational levels and line list are accurate enough to provide alternatives for the missing bands or suspicious assignments, as well as helpful to identify these isotopologues in various celestial environments. The next step will be to revisit the SO2 828 and 646 spectral analyses.

Sulfur dioxide↗

Numerical studies of CO 2 and brine leakage into a shallow aquifer through an open wellbore

Industrial-scale geological storage of CO 2 in saline aquifers may cause CO 2 and brine leakage from abandoned wells into shallow fresh aquifers. This leakage problem involves the flow dynamics in both the wellbore and the storage reservoir. T2Well/ECO2N, a coupled wellbore-reservoir flow simulator, was used to analyze CO 2 and brine leakage under different conditions with a hypothetical simulation model in water-CO 2 -brine systems. Parametric studies on CO 2 and brine leakage, including the salinity, excess pore pressure (EPP) and initially dissolved CO 2 mass fraction, are conducted to understand the mechanism of CO 2 migration. The results show that brine leakage rates increase proportionally with EPP and inversely with the salinity when EPP varies from 0.5 to 1.5 MPa; however, there is no CO 2 leakage into the shallow freshwater aquifer if EPP is less than 0.5 MPa. The dissolved CO 2 mass fraction shows an important influence on the CO 2 plume, as part of the dissolved CO 2 becomes a free phase. Scenario simulation shows that the gas lifting effect will significantly increase the brine leakage rate into the shallow freshwater aquifer under the scenario of 3.89% dissolved CO 2 mass fraction. The equivalent porous media (EPM) approach used to model the wellbore flow has been evaluated and results show that the EPM approach could either under- or over-estimate brine leakage rates under most scenarios. The discrepancies become more significant if a free CO 2 phase evolves. Therefore, a model that can correctly describe the complex flow dynamics in the wellbore is necessary for investigating the leakage problems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

High-throughput validation of phase formability and simulation accuracy of Cantor alloys

High-throughput methods enable accelerated discovery of novel materials in complex systems such as high-entropy alloys, which exhibit intricate phase stability across vast compositional spaces. Computational approaches, including Density Functional Theory (DFT) and calculation of phase diagrams (CALPHAD), facilitate screening of phase formability as a function of composition and temperature. However, the integration of computational predictions with experimental validation remains challenging in high-throughput studies. In this work, we introduce a quantitative confidence metric to assess the agreement between predictions and experimental observations, providing a quantitative measure of the confidence of machine learning models trained on either DFT or CALPHAD input in accounting for experimental evidence. The experimental dataset was generated via high-throughput in-situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction on compositionally varied FeNiMnCr alloy libraries, heated from room temperature to ~1000 °C. Agreement between the observed and predicted phases was evaluated using either temperature-independent phase classification or a model that incorporates a temperature-dependent probability of phase formation. This integrated approach demonstrates where strong overall agreement between computation and experiment exists, while also identifying key discrepancies, particularly in FCC/BCC predictions at Mn-rich regions to inform future model refinement.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The calculation of theoretical chromospheric models and the interpretation of solar spectra from rockets and spacecraft

Since the early 1970s we have been developing the extensive computer programs needed to construct models of the solar atmosphere and to calculate detailed spectra for use in the interpretation of solar observations. This research involves two major related efforts: work by Avrett and Loeser on the Pandora computer program for non-LTE modeling of the solar atmosphere including a wide range of physical processes, and work by Kurucz on the detailed synthesis of the solar spectrum based on opacity data for over 58 million atomic and molecular lines. Our goals are to determine models of the various features observed on the Sun (sunspots, different components of quiet and active regions, and flares) by means of physically realistic models, and to calculate detailed spectra at all wavelengths that match observations of those features. These two goals are interrelated: discrepancies between calculated and observed spectra are used to determine improvements in the structure of the models, and in the detailed physical processes used in both the model calculations and the spectrum calculations. The atmospheric models obtained in this way provide not only the depth variation of various atmospheric parameters, but also a description of the internal physical processes that are responsible for non-radiative heating, and for solar activity in general.

Avrett, Eugene H.↗

The calculation of theoretical chromospheric models and the interpretation of the solar spectrum

Since the early 1970s we have been developing the extensive computer programs needed to construct models of the solar atmosphere and to calculate detailed spectra for use in the interpretation of solar observations. This research involves two major related efforts: work by Avrett and Loeser on the Pandora computer program for non-LTE modeling of the solar atmosphere including a wide range of physical processes, and work by Kurucz on the detailed synthesis of the solar spectrum based on opacity data for over 58 million atomic and molecular lines. Our goals are to determine models of the various features observed on the sun (sunspots, different components of quiet and active regions, and flares) by means of physically realistic models, and to calculate detailed spectra at all wavelengths that match observations of those features. These two goals are interrelated: discrepancies between calculated and observed spectra are used to determine improvements in the structure of the models, and in the detailed physical processes used in both the model calculations and the spectrum calculations. The atmospheric models obtained in this way provide not only the depth variation of various atmospheric parameters, but also a description of the internal physical processes that are responsible for nonradiative heating, and for solar activity in general.

Avrett, Eugene H.↗

The Calculation of Theoretical Chromospheric Models and the Interpretation of the Solar Spectrum

Since the early 1970s we have been developing the extensive computer programs needed to construct models of the solar atmosphere and to calculate detailed spectra for use in the interpretation of solar observations. This research involves two major related efforts: work by Avrett and Loeser on the Pandora computer program for non-LTE modeling of the solar atmosphere including a wide range of physical processes, and work by Rurucz on the detailed synthesis of the solar spectrum based on opacity data or over 58 million atomic and molecular lines. our goals are: to determine models of the various features observed on the Sun (sunspots, different components of quiet and active regions, and flares) by means of physically realistic models, and to calculate detailed spectra at all wavelengths that match observations of those features. These two goals are interrelated: discrepancies between calculated and observed spectra are used to determine improvements in the structure of the models, and in the detailed physical processes used in both the model calculations and the spectrum calculations. The atmospheric models obtained in this way provide not only the depth variation of various atmospheric parameters, but also a description of the internal physical processes that are responsible for non-radiative heating, and for solar activity in general.

Avrett, Eugene H.↗

Cosmic Reionization On Computers: The Galaxy-Halo Connection between $5 \leq z \leq10$

We explore the connection between the stellar component of galaxies and their host halos during the epoch of reionization (5 ≤ z ≤ 10) using the CROC (Cosmic Reionization on Computers) simulations. We compare simulated galaxies with observations and find that CROC underpredicts the abundance of luminous galaxies when compared to observed UV luminosity functions, and analogously the most massive galaxies when compared to observed stellar mass functions. We can trace the deficit of star formation to high redshifts, where the slope of the star formation rate to stellar mass relation is consistent with observations, but the normalization is systematically low. This results in a star formation rate density and stellar mass density that are systematically offset from observations. However, the less luminous or lower stellar mass objects have luminosities and stellar masses that agree fairly well with observational data. We explore the stellar-to-halo mass ratio (SHMR), a key quantity that is difficult to measure at high redshifts and that models do not consistently predict. In CROC, the SHMR decreases with redshift, a trend opposite to some abundance-matching studies. These discrepancies uncover where future effort should be focused in order to improve the fidelity of modeling cosmic reionization. We also compare the CROC galaxy bias with observational measurements using Lyman-break galaxy samples, finding reasonable consistency.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Fluctuations at the blue edge of saturated wind lines in IUE spectra of O-type stars

We examine basic issues involved in synthesizing resonance-line profiles from 1-D, dynamical models of highly structured hot-star winds. Although these models exhibit extensive variations in density as well as velocity, the density scale length is still typically much greater than the Sobolev length. The line transfer is thus treated using a Sobolev approach, as generalized by Rybicki & Hummer (1978) to take proper account of the multiple Sobolev resonances arising from the nonmonotonic velocity field. The resulting reduced-Lambda-matrix equation describing nonlocal coupling of the source function is solved by iteration, and line profiles and then derived from formal solution integration using this source function. The more appropriate methods that instead use either a stationary or a structured, local source function yield qualitatively similar line-profiles, but are found to violate photon conservation by 10 percent or more. The full results suggest that such models may indeed be able to reproduce naturally some of the qualitative properties long noted in observed UV line profiles, such as discrete absorption components in unsaturated lines, or the blue-edge variability in saturated lines. However, these particular models do not yet produce the black absorption troughs commonly observed in saturated lines, and it seems that this and other important discrepancies (e.g., in acceleration time scale of absorption components) may require development of more complete models that include rotation and other 2-D and/or 3-D effects.

Owocki, Stanley P.↗

Sources of uncertainty in direct seismological measurements of the solar helium abundance

The methods by which Dappen et al. (1988, 1990, 1991) and Dziembowski et al. (1990, 1991, 1992) recently obtained discrepant estimates of the helium abundance in the solar convection zone are compared. The aim of the investigation reported in this paper is to identify the main source of the discrepancy. Using as proxy data eigenfrequencies of a set of modes of a theoretical solar model, computed with the same physics as were the frequencies of a reference model with which these data are compared, the two methods yield similar results. Thus we ascertain that the principal source of the discrepancy is not in the inversions themselves, which yield essentially a measure of the variation of the adiabatic exponent gamma of the material in the He II ionization zone. Instead it is in the approximations adopted in the treatment of heavy elements in the equation of state used to relate the variation of gamma to chemical composition. We obtain acceptably consistent results when inverting solar data by two methods using the same equation of state. We attempt to identify the likely residual sources of uncertainty.

Kosovichev, A. G.↗

On the synthesis of resonance lines in dynamical models of structured hot-star winds

We examine basic issues involved in synthesizing resonance-line profiles from 1-D, dynamical models of highly structured hot-star winds. Although these models exhibit extensive variations in density as well as velocity, the density scale length is still typically much greater than the Sobolev length. The line transfer is thus treated using a Sobolev approach, as generalized by Rybicki & Hummer (1978) to take proper account of the multiple Sobolev resonances arising from the nonmonotonic velocity field. The resulting reduced-lambda-matrix equation describing nonlocal coupling of the source function is solved by iteration, and line profiles are then derived from formal solution integration using this source function. Two more approximate methods that instead use either a stationary or a structured, local source function yield qualitatively similar line-profiles, but are found to violate photon conservation by 10% or more. The full results suggest that such models may indeed be able to reproduce naturally some of the qualitative properties long noted in observed UV line profiles, such as discrete absorption components in unsaturated lines, or the blue-edge variability in saturated lines. However, these particular models do not yet produce the black absorption troughs commonly observed in saturated lines, and it seems that this and other important discrepancies (e.g., in acceleration time scale of absorption components) may require development of more complete models that include rotation and other 2-D and/or 3-D effects.

Puls, J.↗