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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2023

Multiphysics Simulations of MSRE with NEAMS Thermal Hydraulics Tools

This report documents the benchmarks being developed and simulations performed using tools and codes developed under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, utilizing MSRE experimental data. In FY23, three main work scopes were investigated under the NEAMS MSR work package at ANL. The first scope investigated the Griffin-SAM coupling model for simulating the pump startup transient experiment of MSRE. The analyses start with a simple model (single-channel, single-lattice), gradually adding more details (multi-channel, full-core) into the model. The results show that the reactivity loss curve is very sensitive to the axial boundary conditions and the radial core discretization. The simple model can predict a similar reactivity trend as that of the more sophisticated model, which is likely due to error cancellation. Accurately modeling the axial boundary condition may further improve the reactivity trend but would require significant efforts to generate the mesh of the MSRE inlet and upper plenum. The core channel radial discretization for the Griffin-SAM coupled model also depends on the flow distribution. Given the complex geometry in the inlet plenum, the flow distribution needed to be calculated from CFD analysis, which was performed using the NekRS code. This analysis employed a MSRE CAD model developed by Copenhagen Atomics. The CAD model was disassembled to keep the inlet plenum region only, which was subsequently cleaned and modified so that the mesh generated is under the memory limit. The results are merged to a few radial regions to show that the flow rate is highest in the central region. This would be useful for future improvement of the Griffin-SAM coupling model of the MSRE core. The last task investigated is tritium transport modeling using the standalone SAM code. This task aimed to initiate the effort to demonstrate and validate the tritium transport model implemented in SAM. The preliminary investigation employed an MSRE model consisting of the primary loop. Three tritium transport pathways were examined including the retention in the graphite, the permeation through the HX tube wall, and the removal from the off-gas system. The results compare well with the MSRE data, but improvements are still needed on the initial conditions (i.e., the present state may not have reached equilibrium), the boundary conditions, the off-gas system modeling, and a better numerical strategy to reach the equilibrium state.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Unexpected Thermomechanical Behavior of Off-Stoichiometry Epoxy/Amine Materials

Recent studies on off-stoichiometric thermosets reveal unique viscoelastic behavior derived from increased free volume and physical interactions between chain ends. To understand structural characteristics arising from cure and its effect on properties, we developed a Monte Carlo model based on step-growth polymerization. Our model accurately predicted structure–property trends for a two-component system of EPON 828 (EPON) and ethylenediamine. A second epoxy monomer, D.E.R. 732 (DER), was investigated to modulate T g . Binary mixtures of EPON and DER in off-stoichiometric, amine-rich formulations resulted in nonlinear evolution of thermomechanical properties with respect to initial formulation stoichiometry. Modifying our model with kinetic parameters allowing for differential epoxide/amine reaction kinetics only partially accounted for trends in T g , suggesting that spatiotemporal contributions-not captured by our model-were significant determinants of material properties compared to polymer architecture for three-component systems. Here these findings underpin the importance of spatial awareness in modeling to inform the development of dynamic thermosets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Utility Management Practices for Addressing Extreme Weather: A Resilience Maturity Model

This report is one of numerous initiatives launched to support and facilitate energy sector preparedness and resilience to extreme weather at national, regional and local levels. The U.S. Department of Energy's vision is a U.S. energy system that is reliable and resilient in the face of all hazards. The U.S. Department of Energy is committed to ensuring the resiliency of the U.S. energy infrastructure and systems through innovating technology development and deployment, enabling policy frameworks, robust analytical modeling, and assessment capabilities to address energy issues of national and regional importance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Design and measurement methods for a lithium vapor box similarity experiment

Here, the lithium vapor box divertor is a concept for handling the extreme divertor heat fluxes in magnetic fusion devices. In a baffled slot divertor, plasma interacts with a dense cloud of Li vapor which radiates and cools the plasma, leading to recombination and detachment. Before testing on a tokamak, the concept should be validated: we plan to study detachment and heat redistribution by a Li vapor cloud in laboratory experiments. Mass changes and temperatures are measured to validate a direct simulation Monte Carlo model of neutral Li. The initial experiment involves a 5 cm diameter steel box containing 10 g of Li held at 650 °C as vapor flows out a wide nozzle into a similarly sized box at a lower temperature. Diagnosis is made challenging by the required material compatibility with lithium vapor. Vapor pressure is a steep function of temperature, so to validate mass flow models to within 10%, absolute temperature to within 4.5 K is required. The apparatus is designed to be used with an analytical balance to determine mass transport. Details of the apparatus and methods of temperature and mass flow measurements are presented.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wet Waste Hydrothermal Liquefaction and Biocrude Upgrading to Hydrocarbon Fuels: 2021 State of Technology

Each year the U.S. Department of Energy Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) assesses progress in their research and development efforts toward sustainable production of renewable fuels (DOE 2016) through the annual state of technology (SOT) assessment. The SOT assessment evaluates the impact of the year’s research progress on the modeled minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) for selected biofuel conversion pathways and measures the current state of the technology relative to defined goal case projections. Supply chain sustainability analysis to track and guide research toward improved greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, energy usage, water usage and other environmental metrics for the pathway is performed by Argonne National Laboratory (Cai et al. 2018, 2020). Technical and cost targets for a projected goal case set for the year 2022 were previously established for the wet waste hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) and biocrude upgrading pathway and summarized in a design report (Snowden-Swan et al. 2017). Process performance advancements made for HTL and biocrude hydrotreating have resulted yearly reductions in the modeled MFSP relative to the initial SOT (2018) (Snowden-Swan et al. 2020, 2021). This report summarizes the research and associated techno-economic analysis (TEA) for the pathway 2021 SOT. Methods and economic assumptions for the nth plant analysis used for the TEA are consistent with the design report (Snowden-Swan et al. 2017), with the exception of updates in the modeled cost year (2016) and income tax rate (21%).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Low-energy probes of no-scale SU(5) super-GUTs

We explore the possible values of the μ → eγ branching ratio, BR(μ → eγ), and the electron dipole moment (eEDM), d e , in no-scale SU(5) super-GUT models with the boundary conditions that soft supersymmetry-breaking matter scalar masses vanish at some high input scale, M in , above the GUT scale, M GUT . We take into account the constraints from the cosmological cold dark matter density, Ω CDM h 2 , the Higgs mass, M h , and the experimental lower limit on the lifetime for p → K + ν¯, the dominant proton decay mode in these super-GUT models. Reconciling this limit with Ω CDM h 2 and M h requires the Higgs field responsible for the charge-2/3 quark masses to be twisted, and possibly also that responsible for the charge-1/3 and charged-lepton masses, with model-dependent soft supersymmetry-breaking masses. We consider six possible models for the super-GUT initial conditions, and two possible choices for quark flavor mixing, contrasting their predictions for proton decay with versions of the models in which mixing effects are neglected. We find that τ(p → K + ν¯) may be accessible to the upcoming Hyper-Kamiokande experiment, whereas all the models predict BR(μ → eγ) and d e below the current and prospective future experimental sensitivities or both flavor choices, when the dark matter density, Higgs mass and current proton decay constraints are taken into account. However, there are limited regions with one of the flavor choices in two of the models where μ → e conversion on a heavy nucleus may be observable in the future. Our results indicate that there is no supersymmetric flavor problem in the class of no-scale models we consider.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Summertime Mesoscale Convective Systems: A Simple Lagrangian Parcel Model Perspective

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are the dominant rainfall producer over the United States during the warm season, causing natural disasters and severe weather every year. Global climate models have large uncertainty in projecting precipitation changes in the future climate. Here, a simple Lagrangian parcel model is used to investigate the impact of global warming on MCS initiation and growth. The single-column parcel model projects a mean precipitation decrease over the central United States and an increase to its east, in agreement with the CMIP5 model projection. It also highlights the crucial role of current climate mean-state model bias in exaggerating the change in future mean precipitation projection by 25%. As for convective population, the model captures the decreased occurrence frequency of weak to moderate convection and increased frequency of strong convection due to the increased CAPE and CIN, in agreement with convection-permitting regional simulations. Novel parameterizations of gust-front propagation speed and subsidence strength are developed as guided by cloud-resolving simulations. The multicolumn parcel model employing those parameterizations captures readily the cold pool–induced upscale growth feature. It simulates smaller mesoscale clusters over the central United States under global warming due to gust-front slowdown and subsidence strength enhancement, which are further attributed to land aridity–induced weakening of initial accumulated precipitation and strengthening of updraft speed, respectively. That said, mesoscale clusters could become bigger under more favorable conditions in future climate, including boundary layer moistening, convection lifetime lengthening, and cold pool mechanical-lifting enhancement, which require further investigations to improve mechanistic understanding of future MCS changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Algorithmic Improvements to MCNP5 for High-Resolution Fusion Neutronics Analyses

Neutronics analyses of the ITER experimental fusion reactor rely on increasingly complex geometry models and estimates of energy-dependent neutron flux and radiation dose-rate distributions generated at ever higher resolutions. There are significant practical challenges with applying the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) continuous-energy transport code to high-resolution analyses. For models consisting of more than 100 000 surfaces and cells, geometry initialization can take several hours, thus slowing down model integration and transport analysis efforts. In multithreaded simulations, the amount of memory consumed by superimposed mesh tally data increases in proportion to the number of threads. This behavior limits either the tally resolution or the number of processor cores that can be utilized in the simulation. This paper describes algorithmic improvements that were implemented in a modified version of MCNP5 to overcome these limitations. These improvements are referred to as the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Transformative Neutronics (ORNL-TN) upgrade. Here, a comparison of the performance and memory usage of both MCNP5 and ORNL-TN on several relevant fusion neutronics models is presented. In these tests and in actual high-resolution neutronics analyses, ORNL-TN reduces geometry processing times from hours to a few seconds and increases in-memory mesh tally capacity from the order of 10 8 to 10 10 space-energy bins.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stand-Alone and Hybrid Electric Thermal Energy Storage in the System Advisor Model

This project developed stand-alone electric-thermal energy storage (ETES), stand-alone pumped thermal energy storage (PTES), and hybrid molten-salt power tower (MSPT)-ETES performance and dispatch optimization techno-economic models. The models are available to the public through the System Advisor Model (SAM) software, scripting, and as open-source code. We compared results of the dispatch model to PLEXOS dispatch of a similar generator using the same initial grid pricing signal and found our dispatch model performed well, but closer agreement between the models was limited by the inherent differences between price-taker and unit commitment models. Nevertheless, the price-taker models developed in this project are useful to analyze proposed ETES and PTES technologies because they provide more detailed system and component models, solve several orders of magnitude faster, and are available as free open-source software. The model results represent the most optimistic returns considering grid arbitrage from the input electricity pricing, so the financial results can be applied as a feasibility stage-gate. We also submitted a journal draft paper that describes the ETES dispatch model methodology and demonstrates model functionality. An accepted journal article will serve as peer-reviewed documentation for the models, along with the open-source code, SAM help-menu content, and eventually this final project report.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermal Hydraulic Modeling of an Advanced Nuclear Reactor using open-source MOOSE tools

The aim of this study is to develop model of a small High Temperature Gas cooled Reactor (HTGR) including the balance of plant. This microreactor produces electricity using the thermal power of the nuclear reaction. This work utilizes the MOOSE Multiphysics simulation tools, which are mainly developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL, Idaho, United States of America). Its thermal-hydraulics and Heat conduction Modules are used to study the fluids behavior in the primary loop and power conversion system and their interactions with the heating structures. More specifically, one verifies that the temperatures, pressures and mass flow rates of the fluids in both loops are consistent and that, at the same time, all the power transfers occur as expected. Moreover, the various mechanical components characteristics (turbine, compressor, pump) are adapted to the reactor operating conditions. This first analysis is conducted using simplified and one-dimensional model for the core. Ultimately, the obtained results are used to build a higher fidelity core model. This step aims to verify that the initial simplified simulation is consistent with the three-dimensional core modeling. In addition, the calculated material temperatures are checked. This study provides a fairly complete model of the thermal hydraulic phenomena for a particular design of High Temperature Gas cooled Reactor.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century

Abstract. Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Role of Strong Magnetic Fields in Stabilizing Highly Luminous Thin Disks

Abstract We present and analyze a set of three-dimensional, global, general relativistic radiation magnetohydrodynamic simulations of thin, radiation-pressure-dominated accretion disks surrounding a nonrotating, stellar-mass black hole. The simulations are initialized using the Shakura–Sunyaev model with a mass accretion rate of M ̇ = 3 L Edd / c 2 (corresponding to L = 0.17 L Edd ). Our previous work demonstrated that such disks are thermally unstable when accretion is driven by an α -viscosity. In the present work, we test the hypothesis that strong magnetic fields can both drive accretion through magnetorotational instability and restore stability to such disks. We test four initial magnetic field configurations: (1) a zero-net-flux case with a single, radially extended set of magnetic field loops (dipole), (2) a zero-net-flux case with two radially extended sets of magnetic field loops of opposite polarity stacked vertically (quadrupole), (3) a zero-net-flux case with multiple radially concentric rings of alternating polarity (multiloop), and (4) a net-flux, vertical magnetic field configuration (vertical). In all cases, the fields are initially weak, with a gas-to-magnetic pressure ratio ≳100. Based on the results of these simulations, we find that the dipole and multiloop configurations remain thermally unstable like their α -viscosity counterpart, in our case collapsing vertically on the local thermal timescale and never fully recovering. The vertical case, on the other hand, stabilizes and remains so for the duration of our tests (many thermal timescales). The quadrupole case is intermediate, showing signs of both stability and instability. The key stabilizing factor is the ability of specific field configurations to build up and sustain strong, P mag ≳ 0.5 P tot , toroidal fields near the midplane of the disk. We discuss the reasons why certain configurations are able to do this effectively and others are not. We then compare our stable simulations to the standard Shakura–Sunyaev disk.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

On the Correspondence between Seasonal Forecast Biases and Long-Term Climate Biases in Sea Surface Temperature

In this paper, the correspondence between mean sea surface temperature (SST) biases in retrospective seasonal forecasts (hindcasts) and long-term climate simulations from five global climate models is examined to diagnose the degree to which systematic SST biases develop on seasonal time scales. The hindcasts are from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble and the climate simulations are from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The analysis suggests that most robust climatological SST biases begin to form within 6 months of a realistically initialized integration, although the growth rate varies with location, time, and model. In regions with large biases, interannual variability and ensemble spread is much smaller than the climatological bias. Additional ensemble hindcasts of the Community Earth System Model with a different initialization method suggest that initial conditions do matter for the initial bias growth, but the overall global bias patterns are similar after 6 months. A hindcast approach is more suitable to study biases over the tropics and sub-tropics than over the extra-tropics because of smaller initial biases and faster bias growth. The rapid emergence of SST biases makes it likely that fast processes with times scales shorter than the seasonal time scales in the atmosphere and upper ocean are responsible for a substantial part of the climatological SST biases. Studying the growth of biases may provide important clues to the causes and ultimately the amelioration of these biases. Further, initialized seasonal hindcasts can profitably be used in the development of high-resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Supporting Nuclear Energy Research with MLOps

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have been shown to be increasingly helpful tools in a growing number of use-cases relevant to scientific research, despite significant software-related obstacles. There exist large technical costs to setting up, using, and maintaining AI/ML models in production. This often prevents researchers from utilizing these models in their work. The growing field of machine learning operations (MLOps) aims to automate much of the AI/ML life cycle while increasing access to these models. This paper presents our initial work in creating a nuclear energy MLOps platform for use by researchers at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and aims to reduce the barriers of using AI/ML in scientific research. We hope to promote the integration of the latest AI/ML technologies into researchers' workflows and create more opportunity for scientific innovation. In this paper we discuss how our MLOps efforts aim to increase usage and the impact of AI/ML models created by engineers. We also present several use-cases that are currently integrated. Finally, we evaluate the maturity of our project as well as our plans for future functionality.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gamma Ray Source Localization for Time Projection Chamber Telescopes Using Convolutional Neural Networks

Diverse phenomena such as positron annihilation in the Milky Way, merging binary neutron stars, and dark matter can be better understood by studying their gamma ray emission. Despite their importance, MeV gamma rays have been poorly explored at sensitivities that would allow for deeper insight into the nature of the gamma emitting objects. In response, a liquid argon time projection chamber (TPC) gamma ray instrument concept called GammaTPC has been proposed and promises exploration of the entire sky with a large field of view, large effective area, and high polarization sensitivity. Optimizing the pointing capability of this instrument is crucial and can be accomplished by leveraging convolutional neural networks to reconstruct electron recoil paths from Compton scattering events within the detector. In this investigation, we develop a machine learning model architecture to accommodate a large data set of high fidelity simulated electron tracks and reconstruct paths. We create two model architectures: one to predict the electron recoil track origin and one for the initial scattering direction. We find that these models predict the true origin and direction with extremely high accuracy, thereby optimizing the observatory’s estimates of the sky location of gamma ray sources.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

DESI Strong Lens Foundry. I. HST Observations and Modeling with GIGA-Lens

We present the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Strong Lens Foundry. We discovered ∼3500 new strong gravitational lens candidates in the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys using residual neural networks (ResNet). We observed a subset (51) of our candidates using the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Except for one ambiguous case, we have confirmed 50 of the 51 candidates to be strong lenses. We also briefly describe spectroscopic follow-up observations by DESI and Keck NIRES programs. From this very rich data set, a number of studies will be carried out, including evaluating the quality of the ResNet search candidates and lens modeling. In this paper, we present our initial effort in these directions. In particular, as a demonstration, we present the lens model for DESI-165.4754−06.0423, with imaging data from HST, and lens and source redshifts from DESI and Keck NIRES, respectively. In this effort, we have applied a fully forward-modeling Bayesian approach (GIGA-Lens), using multiple GPUs, to a strong lens with HST data, and achieved statistical convergence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding coarsening of a post-corrosion microstructure in a molten salt by combining phase-field modeling and in situ tomography

Alloys corroding in molten salt have been observed to form bicontinuous, nanoporous microstructures via dealloying, which subsequently undergo coarsening due to facile transport in high-temperature conditions. In this work, we describe a methodology to elucidate the underlying transport mechanisms during coarsening of a bicontinuous microstructure via quantitative comparisons between phase-field simulations and four-dimensional in situ experiments, in this case X-ray nanotomography of the coarsening of a dealloyed 80 wt% Ni-20 wt% Cr microwire in molten KCl-MgCl 2 at 800°C. We conduct phase-field simulations initialized from experimental data to model coarsening via three different transport mechanisms: surface diffusion, solid bulk diffusion, and liquid bulk diffusion. These simulations reproduce key features of the experiment, such as the densification of the outer layer of the dealloyed wire and the reduction in radius over time. We quantitatively compare different microstructural characteristics between the simulations and experiment and extract temporal scaling factors that optimally match the time scales of the simulations to that of the experiment. This allows us to evaluate morphological similarity between the simulations and experiment and relate the experimental coarsening kinetics to fundamental material properties. We find that surface diffusion is most likely to be the dominant coarsening mechanism, and its kinetics imply a surface diffusivity of D S = 8.9 x 10 -20 m 3 /s, which is within the range of reported values for Ni-vacuum interfaces at 800°C. However, the difference between the experiment and the surface diffusion simulation increases substantially at late times, suggesting that other mechanisms, such as the dissolution of residual Cr, may be at play.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Yield, Biogenic Emissions, and Carbon Sequestration in Southeastern Cropping Systems With Winter Carinata

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production from lipids is a technologically mature approach for replacing conventional fossil fuel use in the aviation sector, and there is increasing demand for such feedstocks. The oilseed Brassica carinata (known as Ethiopian mustard or simply carinata) is a promising SAF feedstock that can be grown as a supplemental cash crop over the winter fallow season of various annual crop rotations in the Southeast US, avoiding land use changes and potentially achieving some of the soil carbon sequestration and ecosystem service benefits of winter cover crops. However, carinata may require more intensive management than traditional cover crops, potentially leading to additional soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through increased carbon losses from soil tillage and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from nitrogen fertilizer application. In this work, the 2017 version of the process-based DayCent ecosystem model was used to establish initial expectations for the total regional SAF production potential and associated soil GHG emissions when carinata is integrated as a winter crop into the existing crop rotations across its current suitability range in southern Alabama, southern Georgia, and northern Florida. Using data from academic and industry carinata field trials in the region, DayCent was calibrated to reproduce carinata yield, nitrogen response, harvest index, and biomass carbon-to-nitrogen ratio. The resulting model was then used to simulate the integration of carinata every third winter across all 2.1 Mha of actively cultivated cropland in the study area. The model predicted regional average yields of 2.9–3.0 Mg carinata seed per hectare depending on crop management assumptions. That results in the production of more than two million Mg of carinata seed annually across the study area, enough to supply approximately one billion liters of SAF. Conventional management of carinata led to only modest increases in soil carbon storage that were largely offset by additional N2O emissions. Climate-smart management via adopting no-till carinata establishment or using poultry litter as a nitrogen source resulted in a substantial net soil GHG sink (0.23–0.31 Mg CO 2 e ha -1 y -1 , or 0.24–0.32 Mg CO2e per Mg of seed produced) at the farms where carinata is cultivated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗