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At least 937 records · Page 52

Internal consistency and diversity scenario development: A comparative framework to evaluate energy model scenarios

Energy modeling frameworks and scenario analysis help us explore the potential impact of our actions and uncertainties in future energy systems. Despite their importance, there is no systematic procedure for evaluating the scenario development process. In a literature review, we identify two core elements of the scenario development process: internal consistency and diversity which are oftentimes missing from scenarios. Here, to address this gap, we create the Internal consistency and Diversity Scenario Development (IDSD) comparative framework which aims to assess the feasibility and diversity of scenarios for a given energy model. With this framework, we review commonly used energy models and demonstrate our framework on their scenarios. The IDSD comparative framework can serve several purposes absent from previous scenario development work by aiding energy modelers and report writers in crafting high-quality scenarios. First, the IDSD is a reflective tool which can improve the quality of the scenario development process, enabling a comparative assessment of energy models and scenarios. Second, the IDSD can provide guidance to modeling frameworks with existing scenarios and those still in development; this feedback will enable modelers to improve the development and the communication of the limitations of their scenarios. Third, this study has highlighted areas for improvement in the scenario development of some commonly used energy model frameworks. Finally, there is a complete lack of explanation regarding the stakeholder selection process. Addressing these identified items could increase opportunities for advanced energy technology uptake and improve our options for achieving a more resilient energy system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Electron transport in unipolar InGaN/GaN multiple quantum well structures grown by NH{sub 3} molecular beam epitaxy

Unipolar-light emitting diode like structures were grown by NH{sub 3} molecular beam epitaxy on c plane (0001) GaN on sapphire templates. Studies were performed to experimentally examine the effect of random alloy fluctuations on electron transport through quantum well active regions. These unipolar structures served as a test vehicle to test our 2D model of the effect of compositional fluctuations on polarization-induced barriers. Variables that were systematically studied included varying quantum well number from 0 to 5, well thickness of 1.5 nm, 3 nm, and 4.5 nm, and well compositions of In{sub 0.14}Ga{sub 0.86}N and In{sub 0.19}Ga{sub 0.81}N. Diode-like current voltage behavior was clearly observed due to the polarization-induced conduction band barrier in the quantum well region. Increasing quantum well width and number were shown to have a significant impact on increasing the turn-on voltage of each device. Temperature dependent IV measurements clearly revealed the dominant effect of thermionic behavior for temperatures from room temperature and above. Atom probe tomography was used to directly analyze parameters of the alloy fluctuations in the quantum wells including amplitude and length scale of compositional variation. A drift diffusion Schrödinger Poisson method accounting for two dimensional indium fluctuations (both in the growth direction and within the wells) was used to correctly model the turn-on voltages of the devices as compared to traditional 1D simulation models.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Novel Real- Time EMT- TS Modeling Architecture for Feeder Blackstart Simulations

This paper presents the development and benchmarking of a novel real-time electromagnetic-transient and transient-stability (EMT-TS) modeling architecture for distribution feeder restoration studies. The work presents for the first time in the literature a real-time EMT-TS testbed in which the grid-forming unit is simulated in EMT domain, operating as the slack bus of the phasor domain while including unbalanced voltage conditions. To evaluate the performance and limitations of the proposed model, an equivalent EMT testbed is developed to serve as a benchmark. First, the co-simulation framework and the domain coupling methodology are introduced. Next, the steady state operation of the EMT-TS and EMT models are matched. Then, tests are conducted to analyze the transient performance of the proposed EMT-TS model when compared to its EMT benchmark. Results reveal that when utilizing a battery energy storage system (BESS) as the grid-forming unit, the EMT-TS testbed can maintain high accuracy for typical load steps.

Paduani, Victor↗

Momentum Spectrum of Cosmic Muons at a Depth of 320 Mwe

Since their discovery, great progress has been achieved in the field of cosmic ray physics particularly towards the understanding of the origin, transport and acceleration mechanisms of the high energy particles that constitute primary cosmic rays, their interaction processes in the galactic and extra galactic media, and also in the Earth's atmosphere. The interaction of primary cosmic ray particles in the Earth's atmosphere leads to the production of a cascade of secondary particles or Extensive Air Showers (EAS) with various components - electromagnetic, hadronic, muon and neutrino components. There is a large number of models to describe these interactions. Many cosmic ray experiments have used a variety of observables in EAS that provide an understanding of the hadronic interactions and also shed some light on the chemical composition of the primary particles. The muon flux at the surface provides a useful tool for the calculations of neutrino fluxes, the reconstruction of EAS and it can serve as a test of various interaction models. The CosmoALEPH detector, whichwas one of the experiments in CosmoLEP used the ALEPH detector at the European Laboratory for Particle Physics, CERN, to measure the muonic component of EAS. Preliminary results have recently shown that the momentum spectrum and charge ratio for cosmic muons measured by CosmoALEPH are well within the world average. This work reports on further improvements in the reconstruction of the cosmic muon events and data analysis. Cosmic muons are produced through interactions of primary cosmic radiation in the atmosphere. They are a component of extensive air showers which can also be measured underground. The CosmoALEPH experiment used the ALEPH detector at the European Laboratory for Particle Physics, CERN, to measure cosmic muon events at a depth of 320 mwe underground. The momentum spectrum and charge ratio of the cosmic muons are measured. The results are compared with the expectations from MC simulations based on different hadronic interaction models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

WW + jet at 14 and 100 TeV

In the current LHC run, an accurate understanding of Standard Model processes is extremely important. Processes including electroweak gauge bosons serve as standard candles for SM measurements, and equally constitute important backgrounds for Beyond-the-Standard Model (BSM) searches. We present here the next-to-leading order (NLO) QCD virtual contributions to W+W- + jet in an analytic format obtained through unitarity methods. We present results for the full process using the Monte Carlo event generator MCFM, and discuss total as well as differential cross-sections for the LHC with 14 TeV center-of-mass energy, as well as a future 100 TeV proton-proton machine.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Demonstration of reduced-order urban scale building energy models

The aim of this study is to demonstrate a developed framework to rapidly create urban scale reduced-order building energy models using a systematic summary of the simplifications required for the representation of building exterior and thermal zones. These urban scale reduced-order models rely on the contribution of influential variables to the internal, external, and system thermal loads. OpenStudio Application Programming Interface (API) serves as a tool to automate the process of model creation and demonstrate the developed framework. The results of this study show that the accuracy of the developed reduced-order building energy models varies only up to 10% with the selection of different thermal zones. In addition, to assess complexity of the developed reduced-order building energy models, this study develops a novel framework to quantify complexity of the building energy models. Consequently, this study empowers the building energy modelers to quantify their building energy model systematically in order to report the model complexity alongside the building energy model accuracy. An exhaustive analysis on four university campuses suggests that the urban neighborhood buildings lend themselves to simplified typical shapes. Specifically, building energy modelers can utilize the developed typical shapes to represent more than 80% of the U.S. buildings documented in the CBECS database. One main benefits of this developed framework is the opportunity for different models including airflow and solar radiation models to share the same exterior representation, allowing a unifying exchange data. Altogether, the results of this study have implications for a large-scale modeling of buildings in support of urban energy consumption analyses or assessment of a large number of alternative solutions in support of retrofit decision-making in the building industry.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Searches for New Physics With Muon Conversion at Fermilab and Triboson Production at the LHC

We report on several efforts to search for physics beyond the standard model of particle physics at broad energy scales. The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab will search for charged lepton flavor violation via the muon to electron conversion process, which is suppressed in the Standard Model. Mu2e will be operated at a low energy, yet can probe New Physics at very high mass scales (O(1e3 - 1e4 ) TeV). At high energies, the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC continues to deliver an impressive suite of Standard Model measurements and limits on a variety of New Physics signatures. Mu2e is under construction and slated to collect its first physics data in the coming years. This thesis describes work done during the construction phase of Mu2e and focuses on two critical areas: magnetic field modeling and statistical analysis. We describe a novel method for field modeling which we validate using a simulated dataset representing the expected magnetic field in the Detector Solenoid. This method blends a standard least-squares fitting technique that utilizes physically motivated analytical model functions with a novel physics informed network that is constructed to obey Maxwell’s equations. We show the technique can model the field with an accuracy of 10−7 despite the presence of injected noise in the pseudo-measurements at the 10−5 level. We then present preliminary results of the calibration of 3D Hall probes at the sub-10−4 level. These probes will be used to directly measure the Mu2e Detector Solenoid magnetic field on a sparse grid; these measurements serve as the input to the field model fitting. Finally, we describe the first implementation of both an unbinned shape analysis and a Bayesian interpretation applied to Mu2e pseudo-data. Up to 20% tighter limits can be set by the shape analysis compared to a standard cut & count analysis. The AlCap experiment collected data at PSI in 2015 to measure several important quantities related to nuclear muon capture on an aluminum target, which is a significant background process for Mu2e. The neutron emission from muon capture can introduce background hits in the Mu2e detectors and can increase radiation damage in various elements of the apparatus. We present measurements of the neutron group fluence and mean neutron multiplicity for muon capture on aluminum nuclei. Finally, we discuss an analysis of triboson production at CMS using an Effective Field Theory framework. Standard Model triboson production, which was first observed at CMS in 2020, has a relatively small cross section and provides direct access to both anomalous triple gauge couplings and quartic gauge couplings. These couplings, interpreted in the Standard Model Effective Field Theory, are studied in the present work. We target the boosted regime where the background rate is low and yields are enhanced when dimension-6 and dimension-8 Wilson coefficients are non-zero. We do not observe an excess in the data and therefore set bounds on the Wilson coefficients. For dimension-6 coefficients the tightest observed (expected) bounds are set on cW /Λ2 where Λ is the mass scale of new physics; the bounds are [−0.13, 0.12] TeV−2 ([−0.12, 0.12] TeV−2 ) at 95% CL. The tightest bounds in dimension-8 are set on fT,0 / Λ4 ; the observed (expected) bounds at 95% CL are [−0.63, 0.69] TeV−4 ([−0.54, 0.62] TeV−4 ). Additional results are presented which include scenarios where multiple Wilson coefficients are non-zero, the application of signal model clipping to address unitarity violation in Effective Field Theories, and a novel template fit developed for easier reinterpretation of our results.

Kampa, Cole Erik [Northwestern U. (main)] (ORCID:0↗

Measuring binary fluidization of nonspherical and spherical particles using machine learning aided image processing

Abstract The binary fluidization of Geldart D type nonspherical wood particles and spherical low density polyethylene (LDPE) particles was investigated in a laboratory‐scale bed. The experiment was performed for varying static bed height, wood particles count, as well as superficial gas velocity. The LDPE velocity field were quantified using particle image velocimetry (PIV). The wood particles orientation and velocity are measured using particle tracking velocimetry (PTV). A machine learning pixel‐wise classification model was trained and applied to acquire wood and LDPE particle masks for PIV and PTV processing, respectively. The results show significant differences in the fluidization behavior between LDPE only case and binary fluidization case. The effects of wood particles on the slugging frequency, mean, and variation of bed height, and characteristics of the particle velocities/orientations were quantified and compared. This comprehensive experimental dataset serves as a benchmark for validating numerical models.

Li, Cheng↗

Modeling Large Dust Aerosols in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)

Dust aerosols have a wide size distribution from less than 0.1 to over 100 μm and dominate Earth's atmospheric aerosol mass. However, most Earth system models (ESMs) inadequately represent dust aerosols larger than 10 μm in diameter, limiting the accuracy of the simulated dust cycle and climate impacts. Here, we introduce a new modeling framework that captures the full observed size distribution of dust aerosols, incorporating recent advances into a mineral-resolved version of the Community ESM, while addressing known issues in previous versions. Comprehensive evaluation against diverse observations of bulk dust and component minerals demonstrates that the model reproduces the observed dust cycle across particle sizes. Incorporating the previously unrepresented large-dust fractions substantially alters dust budget estimates, highlighting potential changes in simulated climate impacts and underscoring the importance of comprehensive size-resolved dust modeling. Despite these advancements, uncertainties persist. Our results indicate that a size-dependent reduction in settling velocity is required to reproduce the observed dust size distribution downwind of source regions. Specifically, in the new model, the gravitational settling velocity of dust particles larger than 10 μm in diameter must be reduced by as much as 85% to achieve agreement with observations. This empirical reduction serves as a constraint on physics-based models of dust settling. Future developments should address misrepresented physical processes that hinder accurate modeling of the large dust aerosol transport. Expanding observational data sets covering the full-size distribution is also essential to better constrain the dust cycle and improve the representation of dust optical properties and climate effects.

Li, Longlei [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United Sta↗

A Conditional Autoencoder for Galaxy Photometric Parameter Estimation

Astronomical photometric surveys routinely image billions of galaxies, and traditionally infer the parameters of a parametric model for each galaxy. This approach has served us well, but the computational expense of deriving a full posterior probability distribution function is a challenge for increasingly ambitious surveys. In this paper, we use deep learning methods to characterize galaxy images, training a conditional autoencoder on mock data. The autoencoder can reconstruct and denoise galaxy images via a latent space engineered to include semantically meaningful parameters, such as brightness, location, size, and shape. Our model recovers galaxy fluxes and shapes on mock data with a lower variance than the Hyper Suprime-Cam photometry pipeline, and returns reasonable answers even for inputs outside the range of its training data. When applied to data in the training range, the regression errors on all extracted parameters are nearly unbiased with a variance near the Cramr-Rao bound.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The long-term impacts of carbon and variable renewable energy policies on electricity markets

We present a computationally-efficient optimization model that finds the least-cost generation unit expansion, commitment, and dispatch plan to serve hourly electricity demand and ancillary service requirements. We apply the model to a case study based on data from the electricity market in Texas (ERCOT) to analyze the market and investment impacts of several incentive mechanisms that support variable renewable energy (VRE) investments and carbon emission reductions. In contrast to many previous studies, the model determines least-cost VRE investments under different cost and incentive assumptions rather than analyzing scenarios where VRE expansion is pre-determined. We find that electricity prices can vary significantly under different incentive mechanisms, even when comparable generation portfolios result. Therefore, the preferred incentive mechanism depends on stakeholder objectives as well as the prevailing electricity market framework. Our results indicate that a carbon tax is more system cost-efficient for reducing emissions, while production and investment tax credits are more system cost-efficient for increasing VRE investments. Similarly, incentive mechanisms that reduce electricity prices may increase the need for separate revenue sufficiency mechanisms (e.g. a capacity market) more than a policy that increases electricity prices. Moreover, the impacts on consumer payments are not always aligned with changes in system costs. Overall, the analysis illustrates the importance of considering electricity market impacts in assessing the economic efficiency of VRE and carbon incentive mechanisms.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Development of experimental and computational frameworks to predict subcooled flow boiling in the LANL Isotope Production Facility

Cooling is crucial to maintain the integrity of target systems in isotope production facilities. At Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL)’s Isotope Production Facility (IPF), multiple encapsulated targets are stacked and irradiated in tandem with a 100 MeV, ~250μA proton beam. To facilitate effective heat removal, these stacked targets are separated and cooled via a series of water channels. At these beam currents, this high-energy proton beam heats the target system, likely initiating subcooled flow boiling in the cooling channels. However, in-beam monitoring of the IPF target system is not possible due to the extreme radiation environment, and the necessarily significant shielding. To better understand high-power target performance, we developed ex-situ experimental and computational frameworks to predict the behavior of subcooled flow boiling at IPF. Subcooled flow boiling experiments on Inconel 625 samples under IPF conditions (2 bar pressure, 10 GPM flow rate (i.e., 2249 kg/m 2 /s), 85 K subcooling) revealed that IPF's average operating power is at the early stage of boiling with a heat transfer coefficient of 48,000 W/m 2 /s. The proposed modeling framework enables us to predict a complete boiling curve, i.e., single-phase heat transfer, onset of nucleate boiling, two-phase heat transfer, and critical heat flux (CHF), with specification of input boiling parameters up to intermediate heat flux levels. The estimated CHF under IPF conditions is 5.2 MW/m 2 . Experimental data under reduced conditions (2 bar pressure, 1.5 GPM flow rate (i.e., 337 kg/m 2 /s), 45 K subcooling) served as validation cases for the computational modeling. This computational model can be further extended to more complicated systems replicating the real IPF configuration, for instance, to study void distribution as a function of the incident proton beam profile and coolant velocity profile of multiple cooling channels. Finally, the proposed experimental and computational frameworks provide a means to better understand cooling systems in the isotope production facilities at different accelerators, where in-beam monitoring of the cooling process is not available.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Solvent Dynamics Are Critical to Understanding Carbon Dioxide Dissolution and Hydration in Water

Simulations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in water may aid in understanding the impact of its accumulation in aquatic environments and help advance technologies for carbon capture and utilization (via, e.g., mineralization). Quantum mechanical (QM) simulations based on static molecular models with polarizable continuum solvation poorly reproduce the energetics of CO 2 hydration to form carbonic acid in water, independent of the level of QM theory employed. Only with density-functional-theory-based molecular dynamics and rare-event sampling, followed by energy corrections based on embedded correlated wavefunction theory (in conjunction with density functional embedding theory), can a close agreement between theory and experiment be achieved. Such multilevel simulations can serve as benchmarks for simpler, less costly models, giving insight into potential errors of the latter. The strong influence of sampling/averaging over dynamical solvent configurations on the energetics stems from the difference in polarity of both the transition state and product (both polar) versus the reactant (nonpolar). When a solute undergoes a change in polarity during reaction, affecting its interaction with the solvent, careful assessment of the energetic contribution of the solvent response to this change is critical. Here, we show that static models (without structural sampling) that incorporate three explicit water molecules can yield far superior results than models with more explicit water molecules because fewer water molecules yield less configurational artifacts. Static models intelligently incorporating both explicit (molecules directly participating in the reaction) and implicit solvation, along with a proper QM theory, e.g., CCSD(T) for closed-shell systems, can close the accuracy gap between static and dynamic models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Development of Preliminary VERA-CS Crud Induced Localized Corrosion Modeling Capability

The objective of this milestone was to develop a crud-induced localized corrosion (CILC) screening capability in VERA-CS using existing codes and capabilities that had been developed in the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) as part of the efforts to resolve the crud challenge problem. The milestone work focused on improving existing CASL software and implementing clad corrosion modeling into VERA-CS. Clad corrosion modeling was implemented by creating an application interface (API) in the Cicada software so that its clad heat transfer and corrosion models could be used in VERA-CS. Cicada was coupled to the subchannel code CTF for solving crud and corrosion growth. Additionally, a clad corrosion model was added directly to CTF to serve as an alternate approach. The rod thermal hydraulic reconstruction (ROTHCON) process, which is used for capturing computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-predicted rod-surface heat and turbulence behavior that can impact crud-induced power shift (CIPS) and CILC prediction, was also implemented into VERA-CS. Usability improvements were made to this feature, which was developed over several previous milestones, so that the VERA-CS user can link spacer grids in a VERA-CS model to an applicable pregenerated spacer grid data file if available. Several assessments were performed to demonstrate the proper functioning of the new capability. Sensitivity studies were performed to demonstrate the effect of crud lithium content, oxide thermal conductivity, Cicada mesh refinement, and ROTHCON coupling mesh refinement on predicted amounts of crud and oxide growth. A full-scale demonstration was performed by running Seabrook Cycle 5 with the CILC capability. Some general observations were made from the assessments. It was observed that predicted corrosion thickness is less than anticipated for CILC cases, so further work is needed to better understand and improve the corrosion modeling. Refining the coupling mesh in the ROTHCON process leads to increased corrosion and crud thickness, which can affect where crud and corrosion grow, how thick it gets, and how many rods experience crud and corrosion growth. Results indicate that applying the ROTHCON process and refining the coupling mesh leads to only a slight increase in total core maximum crud and corrosion thickness, but it leads to a significant increase in the number of rods with a maximum thickness that surpasses a set threshold value (i.e., more rods grow thicker corrosion and crud). Computational performance of the simulation is degraded by a factor of 5{6 with high coupling mesh refinement. The impact of the ROTHCON coupling mesh refinement on total core crud mass is less significant; however, using the ROTHCON process with CFD-generated data over the Yao{Hochreiter{Leech (YHL) model in CTF leads to significantly different amounts of total core crud mass. Future work on the CILC screening capability will include model improvement and validation, development and testing of a CILC-risk screening criteria, and performance improvements.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Hybrid PDES Simulation of HPC Networks Using Zombie Packets

Although high-fidelity network simulations have proven to be reliable and cost-effective tools to peer into architectural questions for high-performance computing (HPC) networks, they incur a high resource cost. The time spent in simulating a single millisecond of network traffic in the highest detail can take hours, even for static, well-behaved traffic patterns such as uniform random. Surrogate models offer a significant reduction in runtime, yet they cannot serve as complete replacements and should only be used when appropriate. Thus, there is a need for hybrid modeling, where high-fidelity simulation and surrogates run side-by-side. Here, we present a surrogate model for HPC networks in which: packets bypass the network, while the network state is left untouched, i.e., suspended. To bypass the network, we use historical data to estimate the arrival time at which every packet should be scheduled at; to suspend the network, all in-flight packets are scheduled to arrive at their destinations, and are kept in the system to awaken as zombies when switching back to high-fidelity. Speedup for a hybrid model is relative to the proportion of surrogate to high-fidelity. This light-weight surrogate obtained up to 76× speedup. Keeping the zombies in the network showed an increase in the accuracy of the high-fidelity simulation on restart when compared to restarting the network from an empty state.

HPC networks↗

Integration of renewable energy generation and storage systems for emissions reduction in an islanded campus microgrid

Microgrid connected building communities are projected to play an integral part in the clean energy transition. These types of systems, when integrated with distributed energy resources (DERs) such as combined heat and power (CHP), district heating and cooling, renewable generation, and energy storage, can provide clean, reliable power to critical facilities and vulnerable communities. The intermittent nature of renewable generation is a challenge when integrating renewables into any grid system, but particularly in islanded microgrids. The University of Texas at Austin (UT) operates an islanded microgrid powered by a CHP plant, while also utilizing district heating and cooling systems and thermal energy storage (TES). High fidelity operating data was used to develop a validated reduced order model of UT’s integrated campus energy systems to serve as a testbed for use in a case study. Hypothetical renewable energy installations on land owned by UT in west Texas were modeled and integrated into the validated campus models along with battery energy storage (BES). Simulations showed that a combination of renewable energy from wind, and optimally controlled 24-hour thermal and battery storage systems could reduce carbon dioxide emissions on campus by 45.4%. The additional retrofit of burner systems to utilize hydrogen natural gas blends resulted in an overall annual emissions reduction of 54.7%. Carbon capture and storage eliminated the majority of the remaining emissions with increased plant energy expenditure. The presented simulations display the practical limitations of a CHP system complemented by renewable generation and short-term storage in eliminating emissions. Furthermore, results highlight the need for further research and development in long duration storage technologies and hydrogen fueled turbines to increase penetration of renewable energy and reduce emissions.

CHP↗

Backlighting extended gas halos around luminous red galaxies: Kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect from DESI Y1 and ACT data

The gas density profile around galaxies, shaped by feedback and affecting the galaxy lensing signal, is imprinted on the cosmic microwave background (CMB) by the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect (kSZ). We precisely measure this effect (𝑆/𝑁 ≈ 10) via velocity stacking with 825,283 spectroscopically confirmed luminous red galaxies (LRG) from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Year 1 (DESI Y1) survey, which overlap with the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 6 temperature maps over ≥ 4,000 deg 2 . We explore the kSZ dependence with various galaxy parameters and find no significant trend with redshift but clear trends with stellar mass and absolute magnitude in 𝑔, 𝑟, and 𝑧 bands. Our analysis suggests that the gas extends beyond the dark matter halo (99.5% confidence level, i.e., probability to exceed (PTE)⁢ = 0.005). We find a tentative preference for hydrodynamical simulation models with stronger feedback that drives gas further out (Illustris 𝑧 = 0.5, PTE⁢ = 0.37) over weaker-feedback cases (IllustrisTNG 𝑧 = 0.8, PTE⁢ = 0.045), though with limited statistical significance. In all cases, a free multiplicative amplitude was fit to the simulated profiles, and further modeling work is required to firm up these conclusions. We find consistency between kSZ profiles around spectroscopic and photometric LRG, with comparable statistical power, thus increasing our confidence in the photometric analysis. Additionally, we present the first kSZ measurement around the DESI Y1 bright galaxy sample (BGS) and the emission-line galaxies (ELG) whose features match qualitative expectations. Finally, we forecast 𝑆/𝑁 ∼ 50 for future stacked kSZ measurements using data from the ACT, the DESI Y3, and the Rubin Observatory. Furthermore, these measurements will serve as an input for galaxy formation models and baryonic uncertainties in galaxy lensing.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Cost & Performance Requirements for Flexible Advanced Nuclear Plants in Future U.S. Power Markets

This report summarizes a modeling effort to estimate the highest allowable CapEx for advanced nuclear plants in future power market environments to still achieve a market rate of return for their owners. This is not a policy report making recommendations to policymakers about how to regulate power markets. Rather, the study’s assumptions and scenarios reflect likely market conditions across a large percentage of US electricity markets. Its goal is to define target cost and performance parameters determined by future market conditions in order to guide design choices and tradeoffs in the early stage of the reactor and power plant development process. Although this was not a deployment modeling exercise to determine the market size for a given technology at selected price points, it does suggest that advanced reactors delivered under the allowable CapEx thresholds identified in this report could cost competitively serve a significant fraction of load in the modeled power markets.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗