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At least 937 records · Page 52

Comparison of theoretical and observed 3.55 cm wavelength brightness temperature maps of the full moon

In the present paper, a map of the moon's 3.33-cm thermal emission, constructed from observation data, is compared with a map calculated from a detailed model for regolith properties. In an 'observed minus predicted' difference map, two distinct anomalies, each approximately 2 K warmer than their surroundings, are detected. The anomalies are smaller in areal extent than the maria in which they are located (Tranquillitatis and Imbrium). A preliminary analysis, based on calculations of the effects of model parameters on observed brightness temperature, indicates that the two 'hotspots' can be explained by postulating that they are regions possessing a 30 to 40 percent higher than moon-average opacity and that their profile of physical temperature with depth is not necessarily anomalous. On a global scale, a pattern of 'maria warmer than highlands' is presented which exhibits a brightness temperature contrast of approximately 5 K.

Keihm, S. J.↗

Dynamical history of the Oort Cloud

Oort's hypothesis for the origin of long-period comets is reviewed, along with evidence for the existence of the Oort Cloud and recent research in stellar perturbations of cometary orbits. A Monte Carlo model is used to analyze the dynamics of comets in the Oort Cloud, to estimate the present and original populations of the cloud, and to examine implications for various theories of the origin of comets. The problem of interstellar comets is briefly considered. It is concluded that: (1) the weight of evidence favors Oort's hypothesis of a cloud of a trillion comets surrounding the solar system and extending out to about 100,000 AU; (2) the dynamical evolution of the cloud is consistent with observational data on long-period comets; and (3) estimates of the population necessary to produce the observed flux of dynamically new comets lead to physically reasonable values for the current and initial cloud masses.

Weissman, P. R.↗

Chemical compositions of planetary nebulae

The chemical compositions of 41 planetary nebulae are established on the basis of an analysis of image tube scanner measurements, supplemented by IUE data. An attempt is made to calculate a theoretical model that gives satisfactory values of the observed intensities, as well as a number of excitation-sensitive ratios, in order to obtain ionization correction factors applicable to the ionic concentrations that will lead to total abundance values. The quality of individual nebular analyses varies, depending on the completeness and accuracy of the observational data and the complexity of the nebular structure. Quality estimates are assigned for each element in each nebula, and an overall reliability index is given to each object. It is concluded that the confidence with which one can speak of the chemical composition of a nebula varies significantly.

Aller, L. H.↗

Inclusion of specular reflectance in vegetative canopy models

A detailed comparison of the observed soybeans and corn canopy reflectance with that calculated from three vegetative canopy reflectance models have shown systematic angular deviations. A likely cause of these effects is noninclusion of leaf specular reflectance. In this paper a formulation to calculate the component of canopy specular reflectance as a function of incident solar and view zenith angles, leaf area index, leaf angle distribution, and leaf specular reflectance has been developed. The SAIL model has been modified to include this component and the results are compared with an extensive observational data set on soybeans. It is shown that the systematic differences between the SAIL model and observations dependent on scattering azimuth are removed. An analysis of variance shows model improvement of 30 percent over the uncorrected SAIL model.

Reyna, E.↗

The extragalactic universe - An alternative view

It is argued that the currently popular cosmological model is subject to many doubts based on observational data which suggest that there never was a Big Bang. It is further argued that the observational evidence concerning nonthermal objects with large redshifts leads to the conclusion that these redshifts are largely intrinsic in origin. These objects do not lie at large cosmological distances, but rather much closer with z(c) less than about 0.1. This in turn means that there is no evidence for evolution in the discrete objects, and that what is seen in them are creation events involving the ejection of new matter from the nuclei of galaxies.

Arp, H. C.↗

Model studies on the role of moist convection as a mechanism for interaction between the mesoscales

A three year research effort is described which had as its goal the development of techniques to improve the numerical prediction of cumulus convection on the meso-beta and meso-gamma scales. Two MESO models are used, the MASS (mesoscale) and TASS (cloud scale) models. The primary meteorological situation studied is the 28-29 Jun. 1986 Cooperative Huntsville Meteorological Experiment (COHMEX) study area on a day with relatively weak large scale forcing. The problem of determining where and when convection should be initiated is considered to be a major problem of current approaches. Assimilation of moisture data from satellite, radar, and surface data is shown to significantly improve mesoscale simulations. The TASS model is shown to reproduce some observed mesoscale features when initialized with 3-D observational data. Convection evolution studies center on comparison of the Kuo and Fritsch-Chappell cumulus parameterization schemes to each other, and to cloud model results. The Fritsch-Chappell scheme is found to be superior at about 30 km resolution, while the Kuo scheme does surprisingly well in simulating convection down to 10 km in cases where convergence features are well-resolved by the model grid. Results from MASS-TASS interaction experiments are presented and discussed. A discussion of the future of convective simulation is given, with the conclusion that significant progress is possible on several fronts in the next few years.

Waight, Kenneth T., III↗

Landstat 7 Views the World

The technical innovations of precise numerical radiometry, spectral differentiation and seasonally repetitive monitoring, introduced by the Landsat series of satellites, created a new measurement approach for terrestrial monitoring. The Landsat 7 mission, successfully initiated on April 15, 1999, reflects significant progress in realizing the scientific potential of this measurement strategy. Substantial improvements in calibration procedures, both prior to launch and during normal operations, have been accomplished to insure long-term stability in the acquired spectral radiometry. For the first time, Landsat 7 will be operated with a long-term data acquisition plan that will insure, barring national emergencies, that substantially cloud-free, seasonal coverage will be recorded and archived in the US for all land areas of the globe. The expected outcome of these efforts is a rapid improvement in our understanding of the Earth system, as well as conceptual knowledge that will underpin commercial application of this technology. The Cape Town 2000 Symposium will take place approximately nine months after the Landsat 7 satellite and instrument completed its engineering checkout phase and was placed in its final orbit in late June, 1999. Thus, this presentation will provide a timely status report, in a significant international setting, regarding the early on-orbit performance of the Landsat 7 spacecraft, the ETM+ instrument, and the long-term data acquisition strategy that has been implemented. The latest data display and visualization techniques will be utilized to present this significant new source of Earth observation data.

Williams, Darrel L.↗

The Solid Rocket Motor Slag Population: Results of a Radar-based Regressive Statistical Evaluation

Solid rocket motor (SRM) slag has been identified as a significant source of man-made orbital debris. The propensity of SRMs to generate particles of 100 m and larger has caused concern regarding their contribution to the debris environment. Radar observation, rather than in-situ gathered evidence, is currently the only measurable source for the NASA/ODPO model of the on-orbit slag population. This simulated model includes the time evolution of the resultant orbital populations using a historical database of SRM launches, propellant masses, and estimated locations and times of tail-off. However, due to the small amount of observational evidence, there can be no direct comparison to check the validity of this model. Rather than using the assumed population developed from purely historical and physical assumptions, a regressional approach was used which utilized the populations observed by the Haystack radar from 1996 to present. The estimated trajectories from the historical model of slag sources, and the corresponding plausible detections by the Haystack radar, were identified. Comparisons with observational data from the ensuing years were made, and the SRM model was altered with respect to size and mass production of slag particles to reflect the historical data obtained. The result is a model SRM population that fits within the bounds of the observed environment.

Horstman, Matthew F.↗

An Observational Overview of Solar Flares

We present an overview of solar flares and associated phenomena, drawing upon a wide range of observational data primarily from the RHESSI era. Following an introductory discussion and overview of the status of observational capabilities, the article is split into topical sections which deal with different areas of flare phenomena (footpoints and ribbons, coronal sources, relationship to coronal mass ejections) and their interconnections. We also discuss flare soft X-ray spectroscopy and the energetics of the process. The emphasis is to describe the observations from multiple points of view, while bearing in mind the models that link them to each other and to theory. The present theoretical and observational understanding of solar flares is far from complete, so we conclude with a brief discussion of models, and a list of missing but important observations.

Fletcher, Lyndsay↗

Evaluation of Regional Water and Energy Balance in Contemporary Reanalyses

Regional to continental water and energy balance in reanalyses provide crucial information on the climate and climate variations in that region and can contrast other regions. Reanalyses are a valuable tool in piecing together the complete balance owing to the incorporation of the budgets in the background model and the assimilation of observation. On the other hand, the background model has its own biases and observational assimilation can lead to non-negligible tendencies within the budgets, and these can vary over space and time. Here, we will compare the balance within several reanalyses and how they have evolved over recent decades. Several observational data products will provide reference points in the comparison. In addition, a recent project has integrated observations of the water and energy budgets in an optimization that aims to reduce the imbalance of regional budgets in using observational terms from disparate sources. In evaluating the regional balances, we will incorporate, when available, the water and energy convergence terms as well as their analysis increments (which may be diagnosed as residuals). The reanalyses considered here include: Japanese Reanalyses for Three Quarters Century (JRA3Q), ECMWF Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) and the NCEP Reanalysis II (NCEPR2). NCEPR2 is representative of the late 90s technology, while the others represent the contemporary climate reanalyses presently available. We will discuss the regional balances over key river basins (e.g. Mississippi and Amazon), and a range of continents including those well observed (North America and Europe) and those with fewer consistent observations (e.g. Africa). These contrasting regions show the degree of advancement in reanalyses and expose areas in need of improvement. The results also demonstrate the usefulness of producing complete atmospheric water and energy budgets as part of the diagnostic output.

Michael G Bosilovich↗

Evaluation of Regional Water and Energy Balance in Contemporary Reanalyses

Regional to continental water and energy balance in reanalyses provide crucial information on the climate and climate variations in that region and can contrast other regions. Reanalyses are a valuable tool in piecing together the complete balance owing to the incorporation of the budgets in the background model and the assimilation of observation. On the other hand, the background model has its own biases and observational assimilation can lead to non-negligible tendencies within the budgets, and these can vary over space and time. Here, we will compare the balance within several reanalyses and how they have evolved over recent decades. Several observational data products will provide reference points in the comparison. In addition, a recent project has integrated observations of the water and energy budgets in an optimization that aims to reduce the imbalance of regional budgets in using observational terms from disparate sources. In evaluating the regional balances, we will incorporate, when available, the water and energy convergence terms as well as their analysis increments (which may be diagnosed as residuals). The reanalyses considered here include: Japanese Reanalyses for Three Quarters Century (JRA3Q), ECMWF Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) and the NCEP Reanalysis II (NCEPR2). NCEPR2 is representative of the late 90s technology, while the others represent the contemporary climate reanalyses presently available. We will discuss the regional balances over key river basins (e.g. Mississippi and Amazon), and a range of continents including those well observed (North America and Europe) and those with fewer consistent observations (e.g. Africa). These contrasting regions show the degree of advancement in reanalyses and expose areas in need of improvement. The results also demonstrate the usefulness of producing complete atmospheric water and energy budgets as part of the diagnostic output.

Michael Bosilovich↗

Planet X - No dynamical evidence in the optical observations

It is shown that the alleged 'unexplained anomalies in the motion of Uranus' disappear when one properly accounts for the correct value of the mass of Neptune and properly adjusts the orbit of Uranus to the observational data. Also, it is shown that each of the 'irregularities in the measured positions of Neptune' has a complete explanation within the framework of the presently known solar system. As a check of certainty, an actual planetary ephemeris is integrated which well fits the observations of Uranus. Minor systematic errors do remain in the data, but they are very small; they are easily explained by a number of uncertainties in the observations themselves. There is now known to be a mass concentration of significant size in the outer solar system - 1992 QB1. In comparison to any of the major planets, though, this object is miniscule. For the meridian circle observations, there is still no evidence which requires or even indicates the existence of any planet-sized object; there remains no need to hypothesize the existence of a tenth planet in the solar system.

Standish, E. M., Jr.↗

Statistical tests of galactic dynamo theory

Mean-field galactic dynamo theory is the leading theory to explain the prevalence of regular magnetic fields in spiral galaxies, but its systematic comparison with observations is still incomplete and fragmentary. Here we compare predictions of mean-field dynamo models to observational data on magnetic pitch angle and the strength of the mean magnetic field. We demonstrate that a standard α{sup 2}Ω dynamo model produces pitch angles of the regular magnetic fields of nearby galaxies that are reasonably consistent with available data. The dynamo estimates of the magnetic field strength are generally within a factor of a few of the observational values. Reasonable agreement between theoretical and observed pitch angles generally requires the turbulent correlation time τ to be in the range of 10–20 Myr, in agreement with standard estimates. Moreover, good agreement also requires that the ratio of the ionized gas scale height to root-mean-square turbulent velocity increases with radius. Our results thus widen the possibilities to constrain interstellar medium parameters using observations of magnetic fields. This work is a step toward systematic statistical tests of galactic dynamo theory. Such studies are becoming more and more feasible as larger data sets are acquired using current and up-and-coming instruments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future Test Bed and Data Infrastructure Final Report

The collaborative Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future (CSSEF) project started in July 2011 with the goal of accelerating the development of climate model components (i.e., atmosphere, ocean and sea ice, and land surface) and enhancing their predictive capabilities while incorporating uncertainty quantification (UQ). This effort required accessing and converting observational data sets into specialized model testing and verification data sets and building a model development test bed, where model components and sub-models can be rapidly evaluated. CSSEF’s prototype test bed demonstrated, how an integrated testbed could eliminate tedious activities associated with model development and evaluation, by providing the capability to constantly compare model output—where scientists store, acquire, reformat, regrid, and analyze data sets one-by-one—to observational measurements in a controlled test bed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mg IX emission lines in an active region spectrum obtained with the Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS)

Theoretical electron-temperature-sensitive Mg IX emission line ratios are presented for R(sub 1) = I(443.96 A)/I(368.06 A), R(sub 2) = I(439.17 A)/I(368.06 A), R(sub 3) = I(443.37 A)/I(368.06 A), R(sub 4) = I(441.22 A)/I(368.06 A), and R(sub 5) = I(448.28 A)/I(368.06 A). A comparison of these with observational data for a solar active region, obtained during a rocket flight by the Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS), reveals excellent agreement between theory and observation for R(sub 1) through R(sub 4), with discrepancies that average only 9%. This provides experimental support for the accuracy of the atomic data adopted in the line ratio calculations, and also resolves discrepancies found previously when the theoretical results were compared with solar data from the S082A instrument on board Skylab. However in the case of R(sub 5), the theoretical and observed ratios differ by almost a factor of 2. This may be due to the measured intensity of the 448.28 A line being seriously affected by instrumental effects, as it lies very close to the long wavelength edge of the SERTS spectral coverage (235.46-448.76 A).

Keenan, F. P.↗

UBV photometry of Mars

A critical analysis of selected high-quality photometric observations of Mars indicates that: (1) the phase function is concave upward out to at least 40-deg phase. No sudden brightening occurs at opposition, but the curvature increases at small phase; (2) large systematic differences (0.1-0.2 mag.) exist between different observers' data. However, the small random scatter attributable to Mars (0.01-0.02 mag.) in the better series suggests that these differences represent systematic errors in data reduction, not variations in the planet's brightness; (3) the disentangling of seasonal, diurnal, and phase effects leaves considerable ambiguity; more observations are needed, over a long time, with a stable instrumental system. However, even the present data are sufficient to expose substantial errors in published phase curves of Mars (and consequently, in interpretations based on them).

Young, A. T.↗

Astronomical CCD observing and reduction techniques

CCD instrumentation and techniques in observational astronomy are surveyed. The general topics addressed include: history of large array scientific CCD imagers; noise sources and reduction processes; basic photometry techniques; introduction to differential time-series astronomical photometry using CCDs; 2D imagery; point source spectroscopy; extended object spectrophotometry; introduction to CCD astrometry; solar system applications for CCDs; CCD data; observing with infrared arrays; image processing, data analysis software, and computer systems for CCD data reduction and analysis. (No individual items are abstracted in this volume)

Howell, Steve B.↗

Global Surface Temperature Change and Uncertainties Since 1861

The objective of this talk is to analyze the warming trend and its uncertainties of the global and hemi-spheric surface temperatures. By the method of statistical optimal averaging scheme, the land surface air temperature and sea surface temperature observational data are used to compute the spatial average annual mean surface air temperature. The optimal averaging method is derived from the minimization of the mean square error between the true and estimated averages and uses the empirical orthogonal functions. The method can accurately estimate the errors of the spatial average due to observational gaps and random measurement errors. In addition, quantified are three independent uncertainty factors: urbanization, change of the in situ observational practices and sea surface temperature data corrections. Based on these uncertainties, the best linear fit to annual global surface temperature gives an increase of 0.61 +/- 0.16 C between 1861 and 2000. This lecture will also touch the topics on the impact of global change on nature and environment. as well as the latest assessment methods for the attributions of global change.

Shen, Samuel S. P.↗