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Geospatial and techno-economic analysis of wind and solar resources in India
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Characterization of vacuum conductance in commercially available (sintered) and additively manufactured porous structures
This report documents the work performed in characterizing the vacuum conductance of porous structures made by conventional sintering (purchased as commercially available products from Mott Corporation ranging from 20 to 100 media grade) and additive manufacturing (powder bed fusion). The additively manufactured structures described in this report were originally intended to be the first iteration of several in an effort to produce desirable conductance characteristics. While resources were not available to link the experimental results to a modeling effort to better understand why certain characteristics were observed, the author hopes that this report may provide a useful set of data for future use, especially as sintered porous structures are not uncommonly procured from Mott corporation for research and development purposes. For that reason, all of the raw data is tabulated in the Appendix: it is possible to reproduce all of the figures shown in this report independently. For a quick order-of magnitude scan of the conductances, refer to Figures 5, 6, 8 and 9.
Analysis of Drought Impacts on Electricity Production in the Western and Texas Interconnections of the United States
Electricity generation relies heavily on water resources and their availability. To examine the interdependence of energy and water in the electricity context, the impacts of a severe drought to assess the risk posed by drought to electricity generation within the western and Texas interconnections has been examined. The historical drought patterns in the western United States were analyzed, and the risk posed by drought to electricity generation within the region was evaluated. The results of this effort will be used to develop scenarios for medium- and long-term transmission modeling and planning efforts by the Western Electricity Coordination Council (WECC) and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). The study was performed in response to a request developed by the Western Governors Association in conjunction with the transmission modeling teams at the participating interconnections. It is part of a U.S. Department of Energy-sponsored, national laboratory-led research effort to develop tools related to the interdependency of energy and water as part of a larger interconnection-wide transmission planning project funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. This study accomplished three main objectives. It provided a thorough literature review of recent studies of drought and the potential implications for electricity generation. It analyzed historical drought patterns in the western United States and used the results to develop three design drought scenarios. Finally, it quantified the risk to electricity generation for each of eight basins for each of the three drought scenarios and considered the implications for transmission planning. Literature on drought impacts on electricity generation describes a number of examples where hydroelectric generation capacity has been limited because of drought but only a few examples of impact on thermoelectric generation. In all documented cases, shortfalls of generation were met by purchasing power from the market, albeit at higher prices. However, sufficient excess generation and transmission must be available for this strategy to work. Although power purchase was the most commonly discussed drought mitigation strategy, a total of 12 response strategies were identified in the literature, falling into four main categories: electricity supply, electricity demand response, alternative water supplies, and water demand response. Three hydrological drought scenarios were developed based on a literature review and historical data analysis. The literature review helped to identify key drought parameters and data on drought frequency and severity. Historical hydrological drought data were analyzed for the western United States to identify potential drought correlations and estimate drought parameters. The first scenario was a West-wide drought occurring in 1977; it represented a severe drought in five of the eight basins in the study area. A second drought scenario was artificially defined by selecting the conditions from the 10th-percentile drought year for each individual basin; this drought was defined in this way to allow more consistent analysis of risk to electricity generation in each basin. The final scenario was based upon the current low-flow hydro modeling scenario defined by WECC, which uses conditions from the year 2001. These scenarios were then used to quantify the risk to electricity generation in each basin. The risk calculations represent a first-order estimate of the maximum amount of electricity generation that might be lost from both hydroelectric and thermoelectric sources under a worst-case scenario. Even with the conservative methodology used, the majority of basins showed a limited amount of risk under most scenarios. The level of risk in these basins is likely to be amenable to mitigation by known strategies, combined with existing reserve generation and transmission capacity. However, the risks to the Pacific Northwest and Texas Basins require further study. The Pacific Northwest is vulnerable because of its heavy reliance on hydroelectric generation. Texas, conversely, is vulnerable because of its heavy dependence on thermoelectric generation, which relies on surface water for cooling, along with the fact that this basin seems to experience more severe drought events on average. Further modeling analysis will be performed in conjunction with the modeling teams at the participating interconnections (WECC and ERCOT) to explore the transmission implications of the drought scenarios in more detail. Given the first-order nature of this analysis, more detailed study of the potential impacts of drought on electricity generation is recommended. Future analyses should attempt to model the potential impacts of drought at the power-plant level, including potential mitigation strategies; include the effects of drought duration; understand the impacts of climate change; and consider economic impacts.
Renewable Energy Zones for Balancing Siting Trade-offs in India
India’s targets of 175 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2022, and 40% generation capacity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030 will require a rapid and dramatic increase in solar and wind capacity deployment and overcoming its associated economic, siting, and power system challenges. The objective of this study was to spatially identify the amount and quality of wind and utility-scale solar resource potential in India, and the possible siting-related constraints and opportunities for development of renewable resources. Using the Multi-criteria Analysis for Planning Renewable Energy (MapRE) methodological framework, we estimated several criteria valuable for the selection of sites for development for each identified potential "zone", such as the levelized cost of electricity, distance to nearest substation, capacity value (or the temporal matching of renewable energy generation to demand), and the type of land cover. We find that high quality resources are spatially heterogeneous across India, with most wind and solar resources concentrated in the southern and western states, and the northern state of Rajasthan. Assuming India's Central Electricity Regulatory Commission's norms, we find that the range of levelized costs of generation of wind and solar PV resources overlap, but concentrated solar power (CSP) resources can be approximately twice as expensive. Further, the levelized costs of generation vary much more across wind zones than those across solar zones because of greater heterogeneity in the quality of wind resources compared to that of solar resources. When considering transmission accessibility, we find that about half of all wind zones (47%) and two-thirds of all solar PV zones (66%) are more than 25 km from existing 220 kV and above substations, suggesting potential constraints in access to high voltage transmission infrastructure and opportunities for preemptive transmission planning to scale up RE development. Additionally and importantly, we find that about 84% of all wind zones are on agricultural land, which provide opportunities for multiple-uses of land but may also impose constraints on land availability. We find that only 29% of suitable solar PV sites and 15% of CSP sites are within 10 km of a surface water body suggesting water availability as a significant siting constraint for solar plants. Availability of groundwater resources was not analyzed as part of this study. Lastly, given the possible economic benefits of transmission extensions or upgrades that serve both wind and solar generators, we quantified the co-location opportunities between the two technologies and find that about a quarter (28%) of all solar PV zones overlap with wind zones. Using the planning tools made available as part of this study, these multiple siting constraints and opportunities can be systematically compared and weighted to prioritize development that achieves a particular technology target. Our results are limited by the uncertainties associated with the input datasets, in particular the geospatial wind and solar resource, transmission, and land use land cover datasets. As input datasets get updated and improved, the methodology and tools developed through this study can be easily adapted and applied to these new datasets to improve upon the results presented in this study. India is on a path to significantly decarbonize its electricity grid through wind and solar development. A stakeholder-driven, systematic, and integrated planning approach using data and tools such as those highlighted in this study is essential to not only meet the country's RE targets, but to meet them in a cost-effective, and socially and environmentally sustainable way.
A Cooperative Game Theory-based Secondary Frequency Regulation in Distribution Systems
Participation of distribution systems in frequency regulation has become an important factor for grid operation after the integration of distributed energy resources (DERs). While available reserves from a single distribution system may not be sufficient for frequency regulation, aggregated reserves from several distribution systems can provide frequency regulation at grid-scale. This paper proposes a cooperative game theory-based approach for secondary frequency regulation in distribution systems consisting of distributed energy resources (DERs). A two-stage strategy is proposed to effectively and precisely determine a change in active power set points of DERs following a command from system operators. In the first stage, the value or worth of each DER and their coalitions are determined using initial rates of change of frequency (ROCOF) for each DER/coalition. In the second stage, the Shapley value, one of the solution concepts of cooperative game theory, is used to determine changes in active power set points of DERs. The proposed method is implemented on several distribution systems including a modified IEEE 13-node system and modified 33-node distribution system.
TU-D-201-01: 2016 Economics Update
The purpose of this session is to introduce attendees to the healthcare reimbursement system and how it applies to the clinical work of a medical physicist. This will include general information about the different categories of payers and payees, how work is described by CPT codes, and how various payers set values for this work in different clinical settings. 2016 is another year of significant changes to the payment system. This presentation will describe the work encompassed in these codes and will give attendees an overview of the changes for 2016 as they apply to radiation oncology. Finally, some insight into what can be expected during 2017 will be presented. This includes what information is typically released by the Centers for Medicaid and Medicare Services (CMS) during the year and how we as an organization respond. This will include ways members can interact with the AAPM professional economics committee and other resources members may find helpful. Learning objectives1) Basics of how Medicare is structured and how reimbursement rates are set.2) Basic understanding of proposed changes to the 2016 Medicare rules.3) Describe economics and policy resources that are available from the AAPM and how to interact with the professional economics committee.
Setaria viridis as a Model System to Advance Millet Genetics and Genomics
Millet is a common name for a group of polyphyletic, small-seeded cereal crops that include pearl, finger and foxtail millet. Millet species are an important source of calories for many societies, often in developing countries. Compared to major cereal crops such as rice and maize, millets are generally better adapted to dry and hot environments. Yet despite their food security value, the genetic architecture of agronomically important traits in millets, including both morphological traits and climate resilience remains poorly studied. These complex traits have been challenging to dissect in large part because of the lack of sufficient genetic tools and resources. In this article, we review the phylogenetic relationship among various millet species and discuss the value of a genetic model system for millet research. We propose that a broader adoption of green foxtail (Setaria viridis) as a model system for millets could greatly accelerate the pace of gene discovery in the millets, and summarize available and emerging resources in S. viridis and its domesticated relative S. italica. These resources have value in forward genetics, reverse genetics and high throughput phenotyping. We describe methods and strategies to best utilize these resources to facilitate the genetic dissection of complex traits. We envision that coupling cutting-edge technologies and the use of S. viridis for gene discovery will accelerate genetic research in millets in general. This will enable strategies and provide opportunities to increase productivity, especially in the semi-arid tropics of Asia and Africa where millets are staple food crops.
Observed changes in dry-season water availability attributed to human-induced climate change
Human-induced climate change impacts the hydrological cycle and thus the availability of water resources. However, previous assessments of observed warming-induced changes in dryness have not excluded natural climate variability and show conflicting results due to uncertainties in our understanding of the response of evapotranspiration. Here in this paper, we employ data-driven and land-surface models to produce observation-based global reconstructions of water availability from 1902 to 2014, a period during which our planet experienced a global warming of approximately 1°C. Our analysis reveals a spatial pattern of changes in average water availability during the driest month of the year over the past three decades compared with the first half of the twentieth century, with some regions experiencing increased and some decreased water availability. The global pattern is consistent with climate model estimates that account for anthropogenic effects, and it is not expected from natural climate variability, supporting human-induced climate change as the cause. There is regional evidence of drier dry seasons predominantly in extratropical latitudes and including Europe, western North America, northern Asia, southern South America, Australia and eastern Africa. We also find that the intensification of the dry season is generally a consequence of increasing evapotranspiration rather than decreasing precipitation.
Nth-plant supply: corn stover supplies and costs in a fleet of biorefineries
Feedstock cost and cost variability is expected to increase with the number of biorefineries. To quantify this effect, this spatial-economic analysis simulates feedstock cost and cost variability of an industry based on corn stover as a function of the number of biorefineries. Results are reported for nine scenarios (a base case and sensitivity analysis of four variables – harvest efficiency, sustainability constraints, opportunity cost, and corn grain yield) under deterministic and stochastic simulations, assuming biorefineries using 658 000 Mg (725 000 tons) year- 1 of corn stover in 2019. The resulting supply curves are highly elastic (i.e. little change in cost) for the first 50 of the 121 biorefineries, with price increases in subsequent biorefineries depending on scenario. In the base-case deterministic scenario, weighted-average stover costs are $66 Mg -1 ($60 ton- 1 ), $69 Mg -1 ($62 ton -1 ), and $156 Mg -1 ($142 ton -1 ), at the first, 60th, and 121st biorefineries, respectively. The stochastic simulations, subject to observed 30-year corn yield variability, follow a similar pattern, with price distributions that vary by scenario. The base-case stochastic simulations illustrate minimal cost variability for the first 60 biorefineries, but rapid increases in cost variability in the second half of potential biorefineries, with similar patterns observed in the other scenarios. Of the four variables explored, price was most sensitive to harvest efficiency, followed by sustainability constraints, corn yield, and opportunity cost. Results suggest that, under conventional logistics, about half of the US corn stover resource is reliably available with minimum cost increase and variability. Interactive visualization is available at https://doi.org/10.11578/1828779.
Copula-Based Flood Frequency Analysis at Ungauged Basin Confluences: Nashville, Tennessee
Many cities are located at or near the confluence of streams where availability of water resources may be enhanced to sustain user needs while also posing an increased flooding risk from multiple tributaries. An accurate flood frequency estimator that models the joint flood potential at a basin confluence is needed. Given that long-term flow observations are often unavailable, estimating flood frequency at ungaged basin confluences proves challenging. Through the use of copulas, this case study demonstrates how an improved flood frequency analysis can be performed for stream confluences at Nashville, TN. The approach involves four major steps including initial data quality control, fitting of marginal distributions of tributary peak flows, construction of a suitable dependence structure, and identification of flood frequency at the confluence point based on synthesized peak flows. This case study may help researchers and practitioners develop a better understanding of joint flood frequency with consideration of upstream dam regulation among several contributing watersheds.
RECENT TRENDS IN EMERGING TRANSPORTATION FUELS AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Abundance of energy can be improved both by developing new sources of fuel and by improving efficiency of energy utilization, although we really need to pursue both paths to improve energy accessibility in the future. Currently, 2.7 billion people or 38% of the world s population do not have access to modern cooking fuel and depend on wood or dung and 1.4 billion people or 20% do not have access to electricity. It is estimated that correcting these deficiencies will require an investment of $36 billion dollars annually through 2030. In growing economies, energy use and economic growth are strongly linked, but energy use generally grows at a lower rate due to increased access to modern fuels and adaptation of modern, more efficient technology. Reducing environmental impacts of increased energy consumption such as global warming or regional emissions will require improved technology, renewable fuels, and CO2 reuse or sequestration. The increase in energy utilization will probably result in increased transportation fuel diversity as fuels are shaped by availability of local resources, world trade, and governmental, environmental, and economic policies. The purpose of this paper is to outline some of the recently emerging trends, but not to suggest winners. This paper will focus on liquid transportation fuels, which provide the highest energy density and best match with existing vehicles and infrastructure. Data is taken from a variety of US, European, and other sources without an attempt to normalize or combine the various data sources. Liquid transportation fuels can be derived from conventional hydrocarbon resources (crude oil), unconventional hydrocarbon resources (oil sands or oil shale), and biological feedstocks through a variety of biochemical or thermo chemical processes, or by converting natural gas or coal to liquids.
Long-Term Impacts of Constrained Transmission Deployment on the Cost-Reliability Tradeoff
Traditional Resource Adequacy (RA) frameworks in the U.S. undervalue the contributions of inter-regional transmission to resource adequacy during stress periods, focusing on the availability of nameplate capacity instead. However, availability of nameplate capacity does not always translate into electricity delivery, especially during tail events. Moreover, the rapid deployment of energy-limited resources and increasing electricity demand challenge existing resource adequacy frameworks and couple regional electricity demand and availability of supply via transmission. We propose a two-stage framework that goes beyond the existing capacity-centered approaches to reveal the RA contributions of transmission. In the first stage we introduce a multi-objective optimization framework to quantify the merits of transmission expansion via Pareto Frontiers under alternative futures of no transmission investment, primary energy resources availability and demand growth. The second stage focuses on tail events and leverages the results of the first stage to characterize the risk profile of regional consumers across the U.S. under the alternative energy futures. We find that no new transmission can lead to a more expensive and less reliable national grid across scenarios, however, the impact on regional RA can vary. The probabilistic analysis reveals that transmission investments can alleviate the tail risk of consumers, however, the availability of fuel resources does not always alleviate regional tail risks. Our findings inform policymakers and utilities on the prioritization of transmission investments to mitigate the risk of widespread outages, also for tail events, and ensure reliable and affordable electricity delivery to all.
Variable Resource Resilience: How Systems Experience Increased Resilience from Variable and Hybrid Resources
Variable resources like wind and solar are often seen as detriments to system resilience rather than benefits because they may not be available with the capacities or services required during a high-impact low-frequency (HILF) event, whether that is a physical threat, natural disaster, or cyber attack. However, resilience goals and metrics are inadequate for electric energy delivery systems with inverter-based resources. Examination of this topic reveals that renewable resources are well suited to combat many resilience hazards due to local resource availability. Metrics that demonstrate the resilience value of variable resources are presented and categorized for resource (wind, solar, storage, hybrid) and installation type (bulk utility scale, behind-the-meter, front-of-the-meter, isolated). Distributed and hybrid systems can further enhance resilience benefits my maximizing resource potential for a locality. A case study demonstrating quantitative resilience benefits from wind alone is provided for St. Mary's, AK, which concludes that hundreds of thousands of dollars are saved by the addition of a wind turbine in the face of realistic fuel shortage and extreme winter weather scenarios.
Physics-Informed Machine Learning for Predictive Turbulence Modeling: Towards a Complete Framework
Although increased availability of computational resources has enabled high-fidelity simulations (e.g., large eddy simulations) of turbulent flows, the Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) models are still the dominant tools in industrial applications. However, the predictive capabilities of RANS models are limited by large model-form discrepancies due to the Reynolds stress closure. Recently, a Physics-Informed Machine Learning (PIML) approach has been proposed to learn the functional form of Reynolds stress discrepancy in RANS simulations based on available data. It has been demonstrated that the learned discrepancy function can be used to improve Reynolds stresses in new flows where data are not available. However, due to a number of challenges, the improvements are only demonstrated in the Reynolds stress prediction but not in corresponding propagated quantities of interest (e.g., velocity field). In this work, we investigate the prediction performance on the velocity field by propagating the corrected Reynolds stresses in PIML approach. To enrich the input features, an integrity basis of invariants is implemented. The fully developed turbulent flow in a square duct is used as the test case. The discrepancy model is trained on flow fields from several Reynolds numbers and evaluated on a duct flow at a higher Reynolds number than any of the training cases. The predicted Reynolds stresses are propagated to velocity field via RANS equations. Numerical results show excellent predictive performances in both Reynolds stresses and their propagated velocities, demonstrating the merits of the PIML approach in predictive turbulence modeling.