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NASA NTRS2019

Titan's Neutral Atmosphere Seasonal Variations up to the End of the Cassini Mission

In this paper we report new results concerning the seasonal atmospheric evolution near Titan's poles and equator using the Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS). In previous papers (Coustenis et al. 2016 and 2018), after the 2010 equinox, we have monitored Titan's stratosphere since the beginning of the mission and reported recently on the observed strong temperature decrease and compositional enhancement above Titan's southern polar latitudes since 2012 of several trace species such as complex hydrocarbons and nitriles, which were previously observed only at high northern latitudes. This effect followed the transition of Titan's seasons from northern winter in 2002 to northern summer in 2017, while at that latter time, the southern hemisphere was entering winter. From 2013 until 2016, the northern polar region has shown a temperature increase of 10 K, while the south has shown a more significant decrease (up to 25 K) in a similar period of time. The stratosphere over the south pole of Titan shows a change in shape with a steeper positive slope and an increase in temperature in 2017 with respect to 2014, by 10-50 K in the 0.5 mbar-0.05 mbar pressure range, the larger 2017 temperatures observed in the higher atmospheric levels around 0.05 mbar, while in average the 70Â°S values return closer to the warmer ones found in 2012. While the south polar region is continuously enhanced since 2012, the chemical content in the north is showing a clear depletion for all molecules only since 2015 (Coustenis et al., 2018). We present here a complementary analysis of nadir spectra acquired by Cassini/CIRS at high resolution during the last year of the Cassini mission in 2017 and describe the temperature and composition variations near Titan's poles and at the equator over almost two Titan seasons. The 2017 data we have acquired and analyzed here are important because they are the only nadir ones afforded since 2014 close to the south pole at high resolution. They show no significant changes in the north with respect to 2016, but a large temperature increase in the southern polar stratosphere and a change in the temperature profiles shape while the South is also finally showing a related significant decrease in most of the abundances.

Coustenis, A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reliability Growth Modeling and Testing

Reliability growth has been modelled as an exponential decline in the cumulative failure rate that continues indefinitely as long as testing continues. Contrary to this, most reliability growth data show a brief high initial failure rate due to infant mortality followed by a long period of constant low failure rate. A two part failure rate model with an initial exponential decline followed by a constant failure rate usually fits the data and provides a more realistic description of reliability growth. The reliability growth process consists of testing, experiencing failures, finding the failure causes, and redesigning the system to remove them. The cost of reliability growth increases with the number of inherent failure modes and the time needed for them to occur and be removed. The failure modes with the lower failure rates will tend to occur later, as their Mean Time Before Failure (MTBF) is the inverse of the failure rate. Reliability growth testing has diminishing returns, since it takes longer to find and remove the less probable failures.This paper first discusses the reliability bathtub curve and then explains that reliability growth is produced by testing, identifying failure causes, and designing to remove them. A simple model of reliability growth is introduced, with a brief group of early failures followed by a constant failure rate. The cumulative failure rate n(t)/t can decline as rapidly as1/t or t-1butdeclines more slowly if additiona lfailures occur. The 56-failure Crow data seti s used to demonstrate the two-phase model of reliability growth followed by a constant failure rate. 13 additional data sets are modeled, with 9 of the 14 data sets showing reliability growth approximately as n(t)/t =1/t or t-1and substantial final failure rates. The model fits most of the data sets, but 4of the 14 show no reliability growth. The reliability growth period typically includes six failures and extends one-quarter or half the total test time. As reliability growth testing continues, the cumulative failure rate should be tracked to estimate the reliability growth exponent and the final failure rate.

reliability growth modeling↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling Reliability Growth

reliability growth modeling↗

DOE OSTI2025

First in operando transient grating spectroscopy measurements on tungsten during high flux plasma operation in PISCES-RF

This work details the construction and first in operando transient grating spectroscopy measurements conducted on PISCES-RF during plasma operation. A preliminary study on a tungsten sample with varied plasma species (Ar and D 2 ), ion flux (4 × 10 21 to 6 × 10 22 ion/m 2 /s), ion energy (5 to 80 eV), and surface temperature (20 to 200 °C) is presented. Prior to plasma exposure, the thermal diffusivity and surface acoustic wave (SAW) speed, (6.9 ± 0.2) × 10 −5 m 2 /s and (2.66 ± 0.02) km/s, were measured in situ with a thermal grating period of 12.5 μm. During Ar plasma exposure, these two quantities vary according to the sample surface temperature. At low flux and varied ion energy, D 2 plasma exposure also results in thermal diffusivity and SAW speed varying with surface temperature alone. At high flux, D 2 plasma exposure results in no convincing change to the thermal diffusivity, but the SAW speed is reduced. After returning to 20 °C, post plasma exposures, the thermal diffusivity and SAW speed almost recover to the initial value prior to exposure.

Surface acoustic wave SAW↗

NASA NTRS1978

Vestibular Function Research aboard Spacelab

NASA is planning to perform a series of Vestibular Function Research (VFR) investigations on the early STS missions to investigate those neurosensory and related physiological processes believed to be associated with the space flight nausea syndrome. The first flight is scheduled for the 1981 Spacelab III Mission in which four frog specimens, mounted on a frog tilting/centrifuge device, will be subjected to periodic acceleration stimuli and periods of artificial gravity. The vestibular nerve firing responses of each frog specimen will be monitored through implanted neutral bouyancy microelectrodes and transmitted to the ground for quick analysis during the flight. The experimentation will be directed at investigating: (1) adaptation to weightlessness; (2) response to acceleration stimuli; (3) response to artificial gravity (in a weightlessness environment) and (4) readaptation to earth's gravity upon return.

Mah, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Cogeneration Technology Alternatives Study (CTAS). Volume 3: Energy conversion system characteristics

Six current and thirty-six advanced energy conversion systems were defined and combined with appropriate balance of plant equipment. Twenty-six industrial processes were selected from among the high energy consuming industries to serve as a frame work for the study. Each conversion system was analyzed as a cogenerator with each industrial plant. Fuel consumption, costs, and environmental intrusion were evaluated and compared to corresponding traditional values. The advanced energy conversion technologies indicated reduced fuel consumption, costs, and emissions. Fuel energy savings of 10 to 25 percent were predicted compared to traditional on site furnaces and utility electricity. With the variety of industrial requirements, each advanced technology had attractive applications. Fuel cells indicated the greatest fuel energy savings and emission reductions. Gas turbines and combined cycles indicated high overall annual savings. Steam turbines and gas turbines produced high estimated returns. In some applications, diesels were most efficient. The advanced technologies used coal derived fuels, or coal with advanced fluid bed combustion or on site gasifications. Data and information for both current and advanced energy conversion technology are presented. Schematic and physical descriptions, performance data, equipment cost estimates, and predicted emissions are included. Technical developments which are needed to achieve commercialization in the 1985-2000 period are identified.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1983

Shuttle imaging radar-A (SIR-A) data analysis

The utility of shuttle imaging radar (SIR-A) data was evaluated in several geological and environmental contexts. For the Ozark Plateau of southern Missouri, SIR-A data were of little use in mapping structural features, because of generally uniform returns. For western Illinois, little was to be gained in terms of identifying land use categories by examining differences between overlapping passes. For southern Australia (Koonamore Station), information ion vegetation types that was not obtainable from LANDSAT MSS data alone was obtained. Specifically, high SIR-A returns in the Australian site were found to correlate with locations where shrubs increase surface roughness appreciably. The Australian study site results demonstrate the synergy of acquiring spectral reflectance and radar data over the same location and time. Such data are especially important in that region, since grazing animals have substantially altered and are continuing to alter the distribution of shrublands, grasslands, and soil exposures. Periodic, synoptic acquisition of MSS and SAR data would be of use in monitoring the dynamics of land-cover change in this environment.

Arvidson, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Multi-polarization C-band SAR for soil moisture estimation

Previous studies of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery have shown qualitative relationships between radar backscatter and soil moisture. However, to be able to use these data in operational programs it will be necessary to establish quantitatively how the radar return is related to soil moisture and the effects of surface roughness, soil type, and vegetation cover and growth stage, as a function of frequency and polarization. To this end, a multi-year experiment began in 1990 as a cooperative venture amongst the Canada Center (Agriculture Canada), and the Universities of Guelph, Sherbrooke, Laval, and Waterloo. During 1990, SAR imagery was acquired during two periods (May and Jun.) to correspond to times of minimal and substantial vegetation cover. SAR data were acquired on three days in May and on four days in Jul. to cover different soil moisture conditions. This unique comprehensive data set is used to investigate the relationships between soil moisture and radar backscatter. The experiment and data collected are described, and a preliminary qualitative interpretation of the relationship between soil moisture and image tone is provided.

Brown, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Autonomous Onboard Science Image Analysis for Future Mars Rover Missions

To explore high priority landing sites and to prepare for eventual human exploration, future Mars missions will involve rovers capable of traversing tens of kilometers. However, the current process by which scientists interact with a rover does not scale to such distances. Specifically, numerous command cycles are required to complete even simple tasks, such as, pointing the spectrometer at a variety of nearby rocks. In addition, the time required by scientists to interpret image data before new commands can be given and the limited amount of data that can be downlinked during a given command cycle constrain rover mobility and achievement of science goals. Experience with rover tests on Earth supports these concerns. As a result, traverses to science sites as identified in orbital images would require numerous science command cycles over a period of many weeks, months or even years, perhaps exceeding rover design life and other constraints. Autonomous onboard science analysis can address these problems in two ways. First, it will allow the rover to transmit only "interesting" images, defined as those likely to have higher science content. Second, the rover will be able to anticipate future commands. For example, a rover might autonomously acquire and return spectra of "interesting" rocks along with a high resolution image of those rocks in addition to returning the context images in which they were detected. Such approaches, coupled with appropriate navigational software, help to address both the data volume and command cycle bottlenecks that limit both rover mobility and science yield. We are developing fast, autonomous algorithms to enable such intelligent on-board decision making by spacecraft. Autonomous algorithms developed to date have the ability to identify rocks and layers in a scene, locate the horizon, and compress multi-spectral image data. Output from these algorithms could be used to autonomously obtain rock spectra, determine which images should be transmitted to the ground, or to aid in image compression. We will discuss these and other algorithms and demonstrate their performance during a recent rover field test.

Gulick, V. C.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Autonomous Image Analysis for Future Mars Missions

To explore high priority landing sites and to prepare for eventual human exploration, future Mars missions will involve rovers capable of traversing tens of kilometers. However, the current process by which scientists interact with a rover does not scale to such distances. Specifically, numerous command cycles are required to complete even simple tasks, such as, pointing the spectrometer at a variety of nearby rocks. In addition, the time required by scientists to interpret image data before new commands can be given and the limited amount of data that can be downlinked during a given command cycle constrain rover mobility and achievement of science goals. Experience with rover tests on Earth supports these concerns. As a result, traverses to science sites as identified in orbital images would require numerous science command cycles over a period of many weeks, months or even years, perhaps exceeding rover design life and other constraints. Autonomous onboard science analysis can address these problems in two ways. First, it will allow the rover to preferentially transmit "interesting" images, defined as those likely to have higher science content. Second, the rover will be able to anticipate future commands. For example, a rover might autonomously acquire and return spectra of "interesting" rocks along with a high-resolution image of those rocks in addition to returning the context images in which they were detected. Such approaches, coupled with appropriate navigational software, help to address both the data volume and command cycle bottlenecks that limit both rover mobility and science yield. We are developing fast, autonomous algorithms to enable such intelligent on-board decision making by spacecraft. Autonomous algorithms developed to date have the ability to identify rocks and layers in a scene, locate the horizon, and compress multi-spectral image data. We are currently investigating the possibility of reconstructing a 3D surface from a sequence of images acquired by a robotic arm camera. This would then allow the return of a single completely in focus image constructed only from those portions of individual images that lie within the camera's depth of field. Output from these algorithms could be used to autonomously obtain rock spectra, determine which images should be transmitted to the ground, or to aid in image compression. We will discuss these algorithms and their performance during a recent rover field test.

Gulick, V. C.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Microgravity alters respiratory sinus arrhythmia and short-term heart rate variability in humans

We studied heart rate (HR), heart rate variability (HRV), and respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) in four male subjects before, during, and after 16 days of spaceflight. The electrocardiogram and respiration were recorded during two periods of 4 min controlled breathing at 7.5 and 15 breaths/min in standing and supine postures on the ground and in microgravity. Low (LF)- and high (HF)-frequency components of the short-term HRV (< or =3 min) were computed through Fourier spectral analysis of the R-R intervals. Early in microgravity, HR was decreased compared with both standing and supine positions and had returned to the supine value by the end of the flight. In microgravity, overall variability, the LF-to-HF ratio, and RSA amplitude and phase were similar to preflight supine values. Immediately postflight, HR increased by approximately 15% and remained elevated 15 days after landing. LF/HF was increased, suggesting an increased sympathetic control of HR standing. The overall variability and RSA amplitude in supine decreased postflight, suggesting that vagal tone decreased, which coupled with the decrease in RSA phase shift suggests that this was the result of an adaptation of autonomic control of HR to microgravity. In addition, these alterations persisted for at least 15 days after return to normal gravity (1G).

Clinical Trial↗

NASA NTRS1991

Hormonal regulation of fluid and electrolyte metabolism during periods of headward fluid shifts

In the broadest sense, this project evaluates how spaceflight induced shifts of blood and interstitial fluids into the thorax affect regulation by the central nervous system (CNS) of fluid-electrolyte hormone secretion. Specifically, it focuses on the role of hormones related to salt/water balance and their potential function in the control of intracranial pressure and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) composition. Fluid-electrolyte status during spaceflight gradually equilibrates, with a reduction in all body fluid compartments. Related to this is the cardiovascular deconditioning of spaceflight which is manifested upon return to earth as orthostatic intolerance.

Keil, Lanny C.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Abstract. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 ∘C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 ∘C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 ∘C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 ∘C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2007

Autonomous Medical Care for Exploration Class Space Missions

The US-based health care system of the International Space Station (ISS) contains several subsystems, the Health Maintenance System, Environmental Health System and the Countermeasure System. These systems are designed to provide primary, secondary and tertiary medical prevention strategies. The medical system deployed in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) for the ISS is designed to enable a "stabilize and transport" concept of operations. In this paradigm, an ill or injured crewmember would be rapidly evacuated to a definitive medical care facility (DMCF) on Earth, rather than being treated for a protracted period on orbit. The medical requirements of the short (7 day) and long duration (up to 6 months) exploration class missions to the Moon are similar to LEO class missions with the additional 4 to 5 days needed to transport an ill or injured crewmember to a DCMF on Earth. Mars exploration class missions are quite different in that they will significantly delay or prevent the return of an ill or injured crewmember to a DMCF. In addition the limited mass, power and volume afforded to medical care will prevent the mission designers from manifesting the entire capability of terrestrial care. NASA has identified five Levels of Care as part of its approach to medical support of future missions including the Constellation program. In order to implement an effective medical risk mitigation strategy for exploration class missions, modifications to the current suite of space medical systems may be needed, including new Crew Medical Officer training methods, treatment guidelines, diagnostic and therapeutic resources, and improved medical informatics.

Hamilton, Douglas↗

NASA NTRS2007

Optimisation of the Future Routine Orbit for Mars Express

Mars Express (MEX), the first planetary mission of the European Space Agency (ESA), reached Mars on December 25th 2003. Since then it is performing routine operations. Its operational phase had to cover one Martian year, with the possibility of an extension for a second Martian year (i.e. until November 2007). The end of the mission extension is approaching but, given the good health of the payload instruments and the high science return of the mission, there is a strong will to achieve further extensions. Mars Express is also seen as an important asset, capable to provide relay functions for future Martian missions. The ESA Science Program Committee has recently approved a second extension of the MEX mission until May 2009 and even further extensions are possible. Mars Express has an eccentric quasi-polar orbit with a period of approximately 6.72 hours and a pericentre height of about 300 km. Science observations are mainly performed at pericentre (but not only). In addition the orbit has a resonance of 11 revolutions per 3 Martian days. This means that ground tracks corresponding to orbits separated by 11 revolutions are adjacent, such that a given area can be covered by the on-board camera without leaving gaps. The J2 effect of Mars causes a drift of both ascending node and argument of pericentre. The drift of argument of pericentre makes it possible to observe periodically all Mars latitudes from close distance. Illumination conditions at pericentre are influenced by both the drift of the argument of pericentre and the drift of ascending node, as well as by the rotation of Mars around the Sun. The original MEX routine orbit was optimized for the duration of the nominal mission and extension, such that it produced a balanced share of day-side observations (for the optical instruments) and night-side observations (for the radar). The orbit was thus not optimized for the time beyond the assumed extension. Indeed, the evolution of the ascending node and argument of pericentre would cause in the following years a drift of the pericentre towards night-side observation conditions, hence uninteresting for the optical instruments. In order to prevent this an optimisation process for the future routine orbit has taken place. The share between day-side and night-side observations can be controlled by adjusting the drift of argument of pericentre and ascending node. This can in particular be achieved by changing the semimajor axis, eccentricity and/or inclination. A change of inclination is inefficient compared to a change in semimajor axis and eccentricity, and has therefore been discarded. An in-plane maneuvre can be performed to change both semi-major axis and eccentricity, and thus the period of the orbit. Although an apocentre manoeuvre is cheaper in terms of deltaV, it would result in raising the pericentre height, which is unfavourable for close observations. Hence a pericentre manoeuvre is proposed, which will increase the apocentre height. A repeat cycle is still required to allow mapping areas with adjacent ground tracks, so the change of semimajor axis must result in a new resonance. Resonances 18:5, 25:7 and 7:2 have been considered as potential candidates. The resulting long term evolution of the observation conditions has been analysed. Finally it has been decided to perform a change of orbit to reach the 18:5. Another aspect of the optimisation process is the control of the ground track. The previous MEX reference trajectory included regular maneuvres at every apocentre in order to adjust the orbital period, such that the separation of the ground tracks would be optimal, regardless of the latitude of pericentre. The implementation of the actual delatVs on-board was done partly by optimizing the attitude of reaction-wheel desaturation activities. Despite of it, this strategy has a significant propellant cost, because it prevents to optimize reaction wheel de-saturation activities to minimize propellant consumption. Therore, with the aim at preserving propellant resources for a long time extension it has been agreed to stop the ground-track control. This requires now a more accurate science operation planning, with improved attitude pointing control. Finally, the approach to phase Mars Express to provide back-up relay functions for NASA Phoenix landing is explained. In the context of the routine trajectory optimisation a new requirement for close fly-bys at Phobos, with different observation geometries, has been specified. The approach to fulfill this requirement is explained.

Carranza, Manuel↗

NASA NTRS2010

Analysis of Ancient Fluvial Patterns on the Surface of Mars

This project involves the study of ancient fluvial patterns on the surface of Mars, including raised curvilinear features (RCFs) and negative relief channels. It requires the use of geological images provided by the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter to determine how water shaped the surface of Mars in the form of rivers, lakes and/or oceans approximately 3.5 billion years ago, during the Noachian period. The role of the intern is to examine the images and record the corresponding measurements of ancient river systems in an Excel spreadsheet to assist in determining the Noachian water cycle on Mars. Resources used to make these measurements include the Arena software, hand-drawn sketch maps, Microsoft Word, Microsoft Excel and the images provided by the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. The Context Imager (CTX) returns black and white images at a resolution of six meters per pixel. The camera can take images with a width of 30 km and a length of 160 km. Seventeen images were observed in total. Images are analyzed and notes are taken concerning their terminal deposits, stream ordering and drainage pattern. The Arena software is utilized to make the images more visible by allowing control of contrast and magnification. Once the image is adjusted, measurements: length, average width, drainage basin area, sinuous ridge area are recorded, at a magnification of one, through using the line segment and polygon tools. After an image has been analyzed and measured, a sketch map is drawn in order to clearly identify the various segments, basins and terminal deposits the intern observed. Observations are used to further classify the fluvial patterns; their drainage pattern is defined as dendritic, parallel, trellis, rectangular, radial, centripetal, deranged or discordant. Once observational notes are completed, mathematical relations are used to determine drainage density, stream frequency, theoretic basin area and sinuosity index. These data will be added to a larger data set that will yield a comprehensive view of early Mars drainage systems. The data obtained from the work conducted will be used to characterize the nature and behavior of water on the surface of Mars. Thorough understanding of the Martian water cycle will serve as biologically significant information. Through working on this project, I acquired insight into the study of planet Mars, and skills in the Arena software as well as the organization of a vast amount of data.

Jethani, Henna↗

NASA NTRS2018

Deep Space Relay Terminals for Mars Superior Conjunction

The Sun periodically blocks direct communication between the Earth and Mars, creating a need for a relay when missions have a critical need for communication during these times. We examined several approaches based on optical or radio-frequency relays placed in deep space between the Earth and Mars, exploring multiple possible placements of relays, including periodic orbits in the Sun-Earth and Sun-Mars rotating frames, and eccentric, sun-centered orbits. L4 and L5 long-period orbits in the sun-Mars system provide suitable communications geometry continuously for very long durations. In such an orbit, a deep space relay terminal with two 50 cm optical telescopes and two 75 cm Ka-band dish antennas, along with associated receivers and transmitters, would be capable of supporting Mars superior conjunctions with an optical data rate of 28 to 44 Mbps for return links, and 30-36 Mbps in the forward direction. The relay should use efficient, low-noise optical detectors, such as appropriately cooled Avalanche Photo Diode or Superconducting Nanowire Single Photon Detectors, to achieve these data rates. The single relay discussed in this study might have additional value beyond communications, providing a synergistic platform for solar observation, solar wind observation, gravitational studies, the search for near-earth asteroids, or a navigational beacon.

Lau, Chi-Wung↗

NASA NTRS2021

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 °C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 °C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 °C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.d-2090s.

Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMI↗