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At least 937 records · Page 52

A Comparison of Results From NASA's Meteoroid Engineering Model to the LDEF Cratering Record

NASA's Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) has provided an extensive record of the meteoroid environment in Low Earth Orbit. LDEF's combination of fixed orientation, large collecting area, and long lifetime imposes constraints on the absolute flux of potentially hazardous meteoroids. The relative impact rate on each of LDEF's fourteen surfaces arises from the underlying velocity distribution and directionality of the meteoroid environment. For the first time, we model the meteoroid environment encountered by LDEF over its operational lifetime using NASA's Meteoroid Engineering Model Release 2 (MEMR2) and compare the model results with the observed craters of potentially hazardous meteoroids (i.e. crater diameters larger than approximately 0.6 mm). We discuss the extent to which the observations and model agree and how the impact rates across all of the LDEF surfaces may suggest improvements to the underlying assumptions that go into future versions of MEM.

Ehlert, S.↗

Computational Micromechanics Model for the Analysis of Fiber Kinking in Unidirectional FRP

A computational micromechanics (CMM) model is developed to analyze fiber kinking, which is a failure mechanism that takes place in fiber-reinforced composites when they are loaded under longitudinal compression. The CMM model consists of a single AS4 carbon fiber with an initial misalignment embedded in an 8552 polymer matrix. The deformation of the model is governed by periodic boundary conditions (PBC). The relatively simple CMM model enables the evaluation of the role played by initial misalignment of the fiber, shear yielding of the matrix and fiber-matrix debonding. A novel microscale experimental technique devoted to the characterization of the longitudinal compressive strength of the fibers, X(sup f)(sub c) , was developed. By exercising the model and comparing it with several existing models in the literature, the nonlinear shear response of the composite lamina was shown to play a fundamental role not only in the prediction of the compressive strength X(sub c), but also during the post-peak regime in terms of residual stress σ(sub r) and fiber rotation φ. Finally, the influence of the fiber-matrix interface damage (not considered in most other fiber kinking models) on the fiber kinking phenomenon was assessed through a parametric study.

Polymer-matrix composites (PMC)↗

QuantifyML: How good is my machine learning model?

This paper presents an approach, QuantifyML, which employs model counting to assess the learnability and robustness of machine learning models. Typically the efficacy of machine learning models is determined by computing their accuracy statistically on test data sets. However, this may be misleading, if the test data is not representative of the problem that is being studied. Further, two different models may have the same accuracy on a given data set, measured statistically, but may be very different in their behavior on unseen data. Also, models with high accuracy could have poor adversarial robustness. In QuantifyML, our goal is to precisely quantify the extent to which machine learning models have learned and generalized from the given data. In QuantifyML, a trained model is translated into a C program, which is fed to the CBMC model checking tool to produce a formula in Conjunctive Normal Form (CNF), which in turn is analyzed with state-of-the-art model counters to efficiently obtain precise counts w.r.t different outputs. QuantifyML enables i) evaluating the learnability of models by comparing the counts for the outputs to ground truth, expressed as logical predicates (if available), ii) comparing the performance of different models that may be built with different machine learning algorithms (e.g., decision-trees vs. neural networks), and iii) quantifying the robustness of trained models around given inputs. Our evaluation demonstrates these applications of QuantifyML on decision trees and neural networks trained to learn relational properties of graphs, for which we know the ground truth, and to perform image classification, for which we do not have the ground truth, but we can quantify local robustness.

Deep Neural Networks↗

QuantifyML: How Good is My Machine Learning Model?

We present QuantifyML, which applies model counting to assess the learn ability, safety, and robustness of machine learning models. Typically, the efficacy of machine learning models is determined by computing their accuracy statistically on test datasets. However, this may be misleading, if the test data is not representative of the problem that is being studied. With QuantifyML we aim to precisely quantify the extent to which machine learning models have learned and generalized from the given data. In QuantifyML, a trained model is translated into aC program, which is fed to the CBMC model checking tool to produce a formula in Conjunctive Normal Form (CNF), which in turn is analyzed with state-of-the-art model counters to efficiently obtain precise countsw.r.t different outputs. QuantifyML enables i) evaluating the learnability of models by comparing the counts for the outputs to ground truth, ex-pressed as logical predicates (if available), ii) comparing the performance of different models that may be built with different machine learning algorithms (e.g., decision-trees vs. neural networks), and iii) quantifying the safety and robustness of trained models.

Deep Neural Networks↗

Design and Analysis of Battery Thermal Management Systems

Thermal management of battery cell packs is a critically needed technology. The purpose of this work is to design new and improved Battery Thermal Management Systems (BTMS) for use in electric airplanes. The BTMS should be 3D printable and hold twelve to sixteen 18650 batteries. To minimize aircraft’s weight, an actively air-cooled battery pack was chosen to avoid the excess weight of water-cooled and phase change material (PCM) cooled packs. As a result, significant changes were made to remove all metal in the pack and replace it with lower density polymer matrix composites (PMCs) which can be additively manufactured. Two air cooled battery pack configurations (traditional propeller fans & bladeless fans) were designed, modeled, and compared. These packs were first modeled in SolidWorks 2021 3D CAD, then imported into COMSOL MultiPhysics to be studied using the “Heat Transfer in Solids and Fluids” module. The design with the bladeless fans eliminated the need to use high conductivity heavy metal to remove unwanted thermal energy. These bladeless fans were designed entirely out of PMCs. This thermal pack design weighs 0.04 kg less than that of the traditional propeller fans design and has increased the battery pack energy density by 8.25 Wh/kg.

Thermal Management System for Battery Packs↗

Development of Versatile Compressor Modeling using Approximation Techniques for Alternative Refrigerants Evaluation

Refrigerants are the life-blood of vapor compression systems that are widely used in Heating, Ventilation, Air-Conditioning, and Refrigeration (HVAC&R) applications. The HVAC&R community is currently transitioning from main-stream refrigerants that have high Global Warming Potential (GWP) to alternative lower-GWP refrigerants. During this transition, it is important to account for the life cycle climate performance of alternative refrigerants since their performance will be different than that of higher-GWP refrigerants. This requires the evaluation of the system performance with the new refrigerants. Unfortunately, it is extremely difficult to predict the realistic performance of new alternative refrigerants without experimental validation. One of the main challenges in this regard is modeling the compressor performance with high fidelity due to the complex interaction of operating parameters, geometry, boundary conditions, and fluid properties. High fidelity compressor models are computationally expensive and require significant pre-processing to evaluate the performance of alternative refrigerants. This paper presents a new approach to modeling compressor performance when alternative refrigerants are used. The new modeling concept relies on using existing compressor performance to create an approximate model that captures the dependence of compressor performance on key operating parameters and fluid properties. The model can be built using a myriad of approximation techniques. This paper focuses on Kriging-based techniques to develop higher fidelity approximate compressor models. Baseline and at least one alternative refrigerant performance data are used to build the model. The model accuracy was evaluated by comparing the model results with compressor performance data using other refrigerants. Preliminary results show that the approximate model can predict the compressor mass flow rate and power consumption within 5%.

Approximation↗

A Revisit to the Hicks' Hyperbolic Two-pressure Two-phase Flow Model

Hicks’ two-phase flow model represents one of the earliest hyperbolic two-pressure two-phase flow models developed in the early 1980s. This model was developed under the separated flow condition, but could be potentially generalized for more realistic flow conditions that are of interest to reactor safety analysis (e.g., bubbly flow). This model is mathematically hyperbolic and therefore well- posed, as eigenvalues from the characteristic analysis found to be all real. Many currently popular two-pressure models are formulated similarly to Hicks’ two-pressure model, with the inclusion of a void fraction transport equation. The void fraction transport equation is closed using the knowledge of transverse velocity on the two-phase interface, which is assumed to be the solution of a Riemann problem in the transverse direction. Numerical experiments on two phenomenological test problems, i.e., the two-phase water faucet problem and the sedimentation problem, were performed using the Hicks’ model, as well as the single-pressure two-phase flow model. Numerical results demonstrate that the channel size, which appears in the void fraction transport equation, has significant impact on the behavior of the Hicks’ model. By comparing to single-pressure model results and available analytical solutions, it was found that Hicks’ model with very small channel width behaves similarly to the single-pressure model. On the contrary, Hicks’ model with large channel width, however, constantly leads to unphysical liquid-phase pressure. These numerical experiments indicate that using the Riemann problem to close the equation system in Hicks’ derivation might be a questionable approach. Further investigations are necessary to explore different approaches that will properly close the equation system without leading to unphysical behaviors.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Membrane Distillation Modeling Progress Report Fiscal Year 2016

Membrane distillation is a water purification technology which uses a porous hydrophobic membrane. Liquid water cannot penetrate the membrane at operational pressures but vapor flows through the membrane if there is a vapor pressure difference across the membrane. Many configurations for membrane distillation have been investigated over the last several decades. In this modeling effort, two successful direct contact membrane model development using steady-state control volume balances on energy and mass are presented. Verification and validation of the models is applied to the extent necessary to use the models for comparative design purposes. Significant errors between modeling and experimental membrane distillation data are argued to be due to uncertainty in membrane material property measurements. A second effort to model a vacuum membrane distillation system designed by Memsys® is still progressing. Two efforts have not yet produced output mass flow comparable to the literature. Even so, much of the framework needed to model the Memsys® system is complete.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Comparison of the CEAS and Williams-type barley yield models for North Dakota and Minnesota

The CEAS and Williams type models were compared based on specified selection criteria which includes a ten year bootstrap test (1970-1979). Based on this, the models were quite comparable; however, the CEAS model was slightly better overall. The Williams type model seemed better for the 1974 estimates. Because that year spring wheat yield was particularly low, the Williams type model should not be excluded from further consideration.

Leduc, S.↗

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Wind Sensitivity Study at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

NASA prefers to land the space shuttle at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). When weather conditions violate Flight Rules at KSC, NASA will usually divert the shuttle landing to Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB) in Southern California. But forecasting surface winds at EAFB is a challenge for the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) forecasters due to the complex terrain that surrounds EAFB, One particular phenomena identified by SMG is that makes it difficult to forecast the EAFB surface winds is called "wind cycling". This occurs when wind speeds and directions oscillate among towers near the EAFB runway leading to a challenging deorbit bum forecast for shuttle landings. The large-scale numerical weather prediction models cannot properly resolve the wind field due to their coarse horizontal resolutions, so a properly tuned high-resolution mesoscale model is needed. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model meets this requirement. The AMU assessed the different WRF model options to determine which configuration best predicted surface wind speed and direction at EAFB, To do so, the AMU compared the WRF model performance using two hot start initializations with the Advanced Research WRF and Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical cores and compared model performance while varying the physics options.

Watson, Leela R.↗

Modeling and simulation of CO 2 capture using semipermeable elastic microcapsules

Very high rates of CO2 absorption have been demonstrated using semipermeable microcapsules filled with environmentally benign sodium carbonate solutions (Vericella et al., Nature communications 6, 2015). However, such capsules have also exhibited several traits, including water loss/uptake, elastic swelling and buckling, and precipitation of solids, which make them more complicated to engineer as a carbon capture material. To address this, a mechanistic model for mass transfer and chemical reaction has been developed, which accounts for these behaviors, and can be used as a predictive tool to explore capsule performance under different CO2 capture scenarios. The model uses a modified film theory to describe CO2 and H2O mass transfer rates, a concentration based description of vapor-liquid-solid equilibrium inside the capsule, and an elastic description of the capsule shell. Model predictions compare favorably to literature data for precipitating carbonates, as well as recent data for microcapsule CO2 absorption. The model was used to assess practical issues of capsule water transfer during a temperature swing CO2 absorption/desorption cycle. Model predictions indicate that capsules filled with high weight percent, precipitating sodium carbonate solution could be significantly or completely dehydrated during CO2 absorption. Subsequent rehydration of lean capsules at elevated temperature showed strong sensitivity to both gas humidity, and capsule shell elasticity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Progressive Failure Analysis Correlation with Notched Composite Laminate Test Data

Testing of small and intermediate laminate panels with notches was performed and Progressive Failure Analyses (PFA) models were developed for aid in test planning and for correlation with the test data. Two progressive damage failure models were included in the study: the commercially available Abaqus built-in damage model and COmplete STress Reduction (COSTR) damage model developed at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). The finite elements models used for the analysis were developed using shell elements. The pre-test PFA results obtained from the two damage models were compared to test data. Then a post-test PFA with updated material properties based on additional available material property data was executed with the COSTR damage model and compared to the test data. The panels tested in compression all exhibited less scatter in the failure load with self-similar failure behavior. The panels tested in tension exhibited more scatter in the failure load with a failure mode that included delamination of plies. However, a self-similar crack path was also observed as the overall failure mode for all panels tested. When comparing test data to the pre-test analysis results, both damage models with shell element models were considered adequate for predicting the behavior and failure load of both the small and intermediate panels when tested in compression. However, for the tension load cases, larger differences were observed between the test and analysis results. When comparing test data to the post-test analysis performed using the COSTR damage model, better correlation was observed. However, large discrepancies were still observed for the tension load cases. Consequently, a higher fidelity finite element model including solid elements for sub-laminates and the modeling of cohesive layers between sub-laminate layers is recommended for tension loading of notched composite laminates.

Damage Model,Progressive Failure Analysis,Open Hol↗

Feasibility of an Accelerometer-Based Structural Health Monitoring System for the LANL Blast Tube

A modeling- and simulation-based study was conducted on the feasibility of implementing an accelerometer-based SHM system on the Los Alamos National Laboratory blast tube. A blast tube experiment was modeled using the Abaqus explicit finite element solver. A custom user subroutine was written to apply test-like pressure loading to the inside surface of the blast tube. The subroutine applies analytically defined pressure loads derived from tracer output taken from a Compressible Flow Computational Fluid Dynamics Solver model of the blast tube. Five unique versions of the model were created: an undamaged reference model at 65°F was used as the baseline and compared to equivalent models at 10°F and 100°F. These three models were compared to models with small damage at the reference temperature. The two types of damage considered were a radial (circumferential) crack in the main tube body and a longitudinal crack in the supports. Acceleration outputs were extracted from accelerometer bodies included in the model and were post processed using a variety of standard SHM techniques. Different potential features signaling failure were extracted and compared using statistical methods in the time and frequency domains. A method was identified that clearly shows that differences in structural response resulting from the modeled damage can be differentiated from the structural response resulting from changing environmental conditions. However, the amount of damage applied to create observable differences in the accelerometer data was so large that simpler methods of damage detection would be more cost effective in locating damage.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Understanding Building Infrastructure and Building Operation through DOE Asset Score Model: Lessons Learned from a Pilot Project

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is developing a national voluntary energy asset score system to help building owners to evaluate the as-built physical characteristics (including building envelope, the mechanical and electrical systems) and overall building energy efficiency, independent of occupancy and operational choices. The energy asset score breaks down building energy use information by simulating building performance under typical operating and occupancy conditions for a given use type. A web-based modeling tool, the energy asset score tool facilitates the implementation of the asset score system. The tool consists of a simplified user interface built on a centralized simulation engine (EnergyPlus). It is intended to reduce both the implementation cost for the users and increase modeling standardization compared with an approach that requires users to build their own energy models. A pilot project with forty-two buildings (consisting mostly offices and schools) was conducted in 2012. This paper reports the findings. Participants were asked to collect a minimum set of building data and enter it into the asset score tool. Participants also provided their utility bills, existing ENERGY STAR scores, and previous energy audit/modeling results if available. The results from the asset score tool were compared with the building energy use data provided by the pilot participants. Three comparisons were performed. First, the actual building energy use, either from the utility bills or via ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager, was compared with the modeled energy use. It was intended to examine how well the energy asset score represents a building’s system efficiencies, and how well it is correlated to a building’s actual energy consumption. Second, calibrated building energy models (where they exist) were used to examine any discrepancies between the asset score model and the pilot participant buildings’ [known] energy use pattern. This comparison examined the end use breakdowns and more detailed time series data. Third, ASHRAE 90.1 prototype buildings were also used as an industry standard modeling approach to test the accuracy level of the asset score tool. Our analysis showed that the asset score tool, which uses simplified building simulation, could provide results comparable to a more detailed energy model. The buildings’ as-built efficiency can be reflected in the energy asset score. An analysis between the modeled energy use through the asset score tool and the actual energy use from the utility bills can further inform building owners about the effectiveness of their building’s operation and maintenance.

Wang, Na↗

ISOCS-based Extended In Situ Gamma Spectrometry Services Tool SuperISOCS for Waste Measurements - 20275

Canberra's In Situ Object Counting System (ISOCS) is an established tool used for gamma spectrometry. It allows physical representation of complex geometries and mathematical calculation of the calibration function while avoiding the need for radioisotope standards. ISOCS provides a large range of templates to generate the geometry for most nuclear waste components in nuclear facilities. Nonetheless, there are some complex geometries where the accuracy attainable is limited by the conventional ISOCS templates. An ISOCS-based extended in-situ Gamma Spectrometry service tool has been developed, based on the so-called SuperISOCS (SISOCS) software. This tool was developed to generate the most complex geometries. The principle of geometry construction is based on the composition of 8 different primitive geometries. The primitive object is able to be cut and to change a part of an object. An object is able to overlap to another one to form a more complex object. These functions refine the modelled geometry compared to the real objects and decrease the measurement systematic error because they allow the mathematical model to represent the real-life geometry more faithfully through reducing the approximations and simplifications that need to be made The algorithm of SISOCS is the same as that of standard ISOCS. A set of calculations was done in comparison with MCNP efficiency calculation and SISOCS results. 80 different models were compared between SISOCS and MCNP, with added 30 cases compared between ISOCS and SISOCS. The average differences were less than 2%, for all energy's efficiency calculations. In this paper we illustrate the benefits that this new tool can provide, in terms of improved accuracy for complex realistic geometries, through simulation of some example scenarios. Furthermore, we demonstrate, through SISOCS modelling of the real object data test, the comparison between SISOCS to ISOCS calculations for the same geometry. This paper describes the added functions that are easily employed using SISOCS. Our results show the potential application and benefit of this technique for real waste assay projects and the way to integrate the tool into the waste assay systems. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The dissolution behavior of borosilicate glasses in far-from equilibrium conditions

In far-from-equilibrium conditions, the dissolution of borosilicate glasses used to immobilize nuclear waste is known to be a function of both temperature and pH. The aim of this paper is to study effects of these variables on three model waste glasses (SON68, ISG, AFCI). To do this, experiments were conducted at temperatures of 23, 40, 70, and 90 °C and pH(RT) values of 9, 10, 11, and 12 with the single-pass flow-through (SPFT) test method. The results from these tests were then used to parameterize a kinetic rate model based on transition state theory. Both the absolute dissolution rates and the rate model parameters are compared with previous results. Discrepancies in the absolute dissolution rates as compared to those obtained using other test methods are discussed. Rate model parameters for the three glasses studied here are nearly equivalent within error and in relative agreement with previous studies. The results were analyzed with a linear multivariate regression (LMR) and a nonlinear multivariate regression performed with the use of the Glass Corrosion Modeling Tool (GCMT), which is capable of providing a robust uncertainty analysis. This robust analysis highlights the high degree of correlation of various parameters in the kinetic rate model. As more data are obtained on borosilicate glasses with varying compositions, the effect of glass composition on the rate parameter values could possibly be obtained. This would allow for the possibility of predicting the forward dissolution rate of glass based solely on composition

Neeway, James J.↗

Scenario Planning Management Actions to Restore Cold Water Stream Habitat: Comparing Mechanistic and Statistical Modeling Approaches

ABSTRACT Under the United States Clean Water Act, states are required to periodically assess state waters to determine compliance with water quality criteria (including temperature) and then to develop total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) for impaired waters as necessary to bring them into compliance. We compared the performance of mechanistic stream temperature models (HeatSource, QUAL2K, and QUAL2Kw) applied to the mainstem of three TMDL watersheds (Middle Fork John Day, OR; Wind River, WA; South Fork Nooksack, WA) with that of spatial stream network (SSN) models applied to the full watersheds and used these to evaluate the potential effectiveness of restoration strategies. SSN models performed well with slightly lesser accuracy (RMSE = 0.47–0.87) for mainstem predictions than mechanistic models (RMSE = 0.4) but provided additional benefits to inform management, including information on spatial and temporal heterogeneity of restoration effectiveness throughout the watershed. Of the four scenarios considered (restoration of riparian zones to potential natural vegetation, channel narrowing, increasing flow by restricting irrigation withdrawals, and combined applications), riparian zone restoration was consistently the most effective in reducing temperatures at the outlet, mainstem, and throughout the watersheds. Predicted restoration effectiveness for thermal regimes varied significantly both within and among watersheds. A focus on water quality criteria exceedance only at the watershed outlet or along the mainstem reach can obscure knowledge of restoration potential for fish habitat in tributaries and headwaters, potential for creation of thermal refuge areas along the mainstem critical for maintaining migration corridors, and thermal regime heterogeneity across space and time.

Fuller, M. R.↗

Grey-box modeling and application for building energy simulations - A critical review

Grey-box modeling, as one of the three fundamental modeling techniques for building energy models, has many advantages compared with black-box modeling and white-box modeling. Additionally, it has been widely applied to solve problems of building technologies, such as building load estimation, control and optimization, and building-grid integration. However, a thorough review of grey-box modeling is not available. This review study systematically investigated various aspects of grey-box modeling for buildings. First, the fundamental aspects of grey-box modeling are presented, including the theoretical background, modeling of building elements, modeling order, modeling diagram, and order reduction. Second, the detailed modeling approaches are discussed. Third, multiple applications of grey-box modeling are investigated for building energy domain, which are categorized into the following groups: heat dynamics analysis, thermal load estimation, building control and optimization, district/urban scale energy modeling, and building-grid integration. Finally, the available software packages for grey-box modeling are compared. Overall, the challenges of using grey-box modeling can be summarized as follows: (1) the theoretical limitations and assumptions of grey-box modeling are unclear; (2) grey-box model naming convention and structure are confusing; (3) grey-box model creation is vague; (4) suitable applications of grey-box models are unknown; and (5) grey-box models lack unified software solutions for wider adoption.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗