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DOE OSTI2022

A parallel discrete dislocation dynamics/kinetic Monte Carlo method to study non-conservative plastic processes

Non-conservative processes play a fundamental role in plasticity and are behind important macroscopic phenomena such as creep, dynamic strain aging, loop raft formation, etc. In the most general case, vacancy-induced dislocation climb is the operating unit mechanism. While dislocation/vacancy interactions have been modeled in the literature using a variety of methods, the approaches developed rely on continuum descriptions of both the vacancy population and its fluxes. However, there are numerous situations in physics where point defect populations display heterogeneous concentrations and/or non-smooth kinetics. Here, a kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) approach for modeling vacancy transport in response to arbitrary stress fields is used. Vacancies are treated as point particles and are coupled to the dislocation substructure representing a deformed material via an advection term defined by the local stress gradients. The stress fields and the dislocation substructure are evolved using a discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD) module. To extend the coupled model to the treatment of large systems, we have implemented it in the massively-parallel DDD code ParaDiS. To avoid numerical incompatibilities associated with merging deterministic (DDD) and stochastic (kMC) integration algorithms, we cast the entire elasto-plastic-diffusive problem within a single stochastic framework, taking advantage of a parallel kMC algorithm to evolve the system as a single event-driven process. The large-scale implementation enables the study of the evolution of a variety of dislocation-defect scenarios governed by non-conservative transport kinetics. After carrying out an exhaustive numerical and computational analysis of our parallel algorithm, we show results that emphasize situations where inhomogeneous vacancy dynamics are of relevance, and compare discrete kinetics to continuum solutions for several cases.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

REV-INR: Regularized Evidential Implicit Neural Representation for Uncertainty-Aware Volume Visualization

Applications of Implicit Neural Representations (INRs) have emerged as a promising deep learning approach for compactly representing large volumetric datasets. These models can act as surrogates for volume data, enabling efficient storage and on-demand reconstruction via model predictions. However, conventional deterministic INRs only provide value predictions without insights into the model’s prediction uncertainty or the impact of inherent noisiness in the data. This limitation can lead to unreliable data interpretation and visualization due to prediction inaccuracies in the reconstructed volume. Identifying erroneous results extracted from model-predicted data may be infeasible, as raw data may be unavailable due to its large size. To address this challenge, we introduce REV-INR, Regularized Evidential Implicit Neural Representation, which learns to predict data values accurately along with the associated coordinate-level data uncertainty and model uncertainty using only a single forward pass of the trained REV-INR during inference. By comprehensively comparing and contrasting REV-INR with existing well-established deep uncertainty estimation methods, we show that REV-INR achieves the best volume reconstruction quality with robust data (aleatoric) and model (epistemic) uncertainty estimates using the fastest inference time. Consequently, we demonstrate that REV-INR facilitates assessment of the reliability and trustworthiness of the extracted isosurfaces and volume visualization results, enabling analyses to be solely driven by model-predicted data.

Saklani, Shanu [Indian Institute of Technology, Ka↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Disorder to Order in Interface Patterns: Thermal Noise to Limit Cycle Transition in Dendrite Sidebranch Formation

Thin sample directional solidification experiments have been carried out in the model succinonitrile-camphor system to examine the origin of secondary branches in dendrite morphologies. Thermal noise at the dendrite tip creates interface instabilities which amplify to form sidebranches. This is accepted as the primary mode of sidebranching in dendritic growth from an undercooled melt and occurs in directional solidification of dendrites. The proposed limit cycle couples the growth of the tip with the initiation of the sidebranch. Directional solidification of curved interfaces is a driven dissipative system with the potential to form a limit cycle. Two sets of experiments were performed, the first holding velocity constant and evolving the gradient and the second imposing oscillating velocities around the natural period of sidebranching. Both experimental methods were found to characterize a transition from disordered sidebranching induced by thermal noise to ordered sidebranching produced by the limit cycle mechanisms. This is the first quantitative measurement of previously hypothesized limit cycle growth. These experiment sets have been quantitatively analyzed for dynamic behavior seen in limit cycles. High-quality data sets of the tip and instability enable the measurement of the FFT and analysis through a power spectrum. At low gradients, the sidebranches are found to be excited by thermal noise far away from the tip. As the gradient increases and velocity is held constant, the distance between the instability and tip decreases until limit cycle growth is found between the tip of the primary dendrite and the first forming sidebranch. An alternative to the deterministic limit cycles seen in experiments of gradient evolution is a limit cycle actively driven through the square wave oscillation of velocity. Crucial observations of the solidified microstructure conclude that this produced periodic interconnected bridges between the primary dendrites. This is a finding with potentially significant implications for commercial applications.

Trevor Lyons↗

DOE OSTI2020

Status of FUDGE [Slides]

This presentation discusses the nuclear data management code FUDGE (For Updating Data and Generating Evaluations). While FUDGE is designed to support GNDS, the presentation also states that ENDF-6 and ENDL data files are also supported but must first be translated into GNDS; translators are included with FUDGE. It also states that FUDGE supports plotting, manipulating, checking for physical content, resonance reconstruction, Doppler broadening, etc. FUDGE also supports processing for Monte Carlo and deterministic transport. FUDGE is open source, and the latest public release was FUDGE-4.2.3 with support for GNDS-1.9. In summation, FUDGE capabilities include translating older formats into GNDS, translating GNDS back to ENDF-6, and visualizing, modifying, checking, and processing GNDS data. It also states that a new version of FUDGE is coming soon. The plan is to support GNDS-2.0 specification, but it may be released sooner if v2.0 is delayed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Assembly and Tracking of Microbial Community Development within a Microwell Array Platform

The development of microbial communities depends on a combination of complex deterministic and stochastic factors that can dramatically alter the spatial distribution and activities of community members. In this study, we have developed a microwell array platform that can be used to rapidly assemble and track thousands of bacterial communities in parallel. This protocol highlights the utility of the platform and describes its use for optically monitoring the development of simple, two-member communities within an ensemble of arrays within the platform. This demonstration uses two mutants of Pseudomonas aeruginosa, part of a series of mutants developed to study Type VI secretion pathogenicity. Chromosomal inserts of either mCherry or GFP genes facilitate the constitutive expression of fluorescent proteins with distinct emission wavelengths that can be used to monitor community member abundance and location within each microwell. This protocol describes a detailed method for assembling mixtures of bacteria into the wells of the array and using time-lapse fluorescence imaging and quantitative image analysis to measure the relative growth of each member population over time. Lastly, the seeding and assembly of the microwell platform, the imaging procedures necessary for the quantitative analysis of microbial communities within the array, and the methods that can be used to reveal interactions between microbial species area all discussed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Closures and Assimilation for Stiff Multiscale Random Dynamics

Here, we introduce a data-driven and physics-informed framework for propagating uncertainty in stiff, multiscale random ordinary differential equations (RODEs) driven by correlated (colored) noise. Unlike systems subjected to Gaussian white noise, a deterministic equation for the joint probability density function (PDF) of RODE state variables does not exist in closed form. Moreover, such an equation would require as many phase-space variables as there are states in the RODE system. To alleviate this curse of dimensionality, we instead derive exact, albeit unclosed, reduced-order PDF (RoPDF) equations for low-dimensional observables/quantities of interest. The unclosed terms take the form of state-dependent conditional expectations, which are directly estimated from data at sparse observation times. However, for systems exhibiting stiff, multiscale dynamics, data sparsity introduces regression discrepancies that compound during RoPDF evolution. This is overcome by introducing a kinetic-like defect term to the RoPDF equation, which is learned by assimilating in sparse, low-fidelity RoPDF estimates. Two assimilation methods are considered, namely nudging and deep neural networks, which are successfully tested against Monte Carlo simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Estimation of iodine nutrition and thyroid function status in late-gestation pregnant women in the United States: Development and application of a population-based pregnancy model

Previously, a deterministic biologically-based dose-response (BBDR) pregnancy model was developed to evaluate moderate thyroid axis disturbances with and without thyroid-active chemical exposure in a near-term pregnant woman and fetus. In the current study, the existing BBDR model was adapted to include a wider functional range of iodine nutrition, including more severe iodine deficiency conditions, and to incorporate empirically the effects of homeostatic mechanisms. The extended model was further developed into a population-based model and was constructed using a Monte Carlo-based probabilistic framework. In order to characterize total (T4) and free (fT4) thyroxine levels for a given iodine status at the population-level, the distribution of iodine intake for late-gestation pregnant women in the U.S was reconstructed using various reverse dosimetry methods and available biomonitoring data. The range of median (mean) iodine intake values resulting from three different methods of reverse dosimetry tested was 196.5–219.9 μg of iodine/day (228.2–392.9 μg of iodine/day). There was minimal variation in model-predicted maternal serum T4 and ft4 thyroxine levels from use of the three reconstructed distributions of iodine intake; the range of geometric mean for T4 and fT4, was 138–151.7 nmol/L and 7.9–8.7 pmol/L, respectively. The average value of the ratio of the 97.5th percentile to the 2.5th percentile equaled 3.1 and agreed well with similar estimates from recent observations in third-trimester pregnant women in the U.S. In addition, the reconstructed distributions of iodine intake allowed us to estimate nutrient inadequacy for late-gestation pregnant women in the U.S. via the probability approach. The prevalence of iodine inadequacy for third-trimester pregnant women in the U.S. was estimated to be between 21% and 44%. Taken together, the current work provides an improved tool for evaluating iodine nutritional status and the corresponding thyroid function status in pregnant women in the U.S. This model enables future assessments of the relevant risk of thyroid hormone level perturbations due to exposure to thyroid-active chemicals at the population-level. - Highlights: • A population-based thyroid function model for pregnant women was developed. • The model was used specifically study the late-gestation pregnant women in the U.S. • The prevalence of iodine inadequacy was estimated in the sub-population studied. • Developed model well predicts trimester-specific thyroid hormone reference ranges. • The model can be further used to study thyroid perturbations at a population level.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Assessment of Model-Based Schemes for Accelerating Optimization by RAVEN

Nuclear-Renewable Hybrid Energy Systems (N-R HES) combine different energy technologies in a synergistic way with the objective of achieving a more economical energy production. In this report the particular hybrid system dealt with includes a PWR nuclear reactor, the associated Rankine-based energy conversion cycle (Balance of Plant, BOP), an Industrial Process (IP) for hydrogen production, a gas turbine (Second Energy Source, SES), and a battery (Energy Storage, ES). The RAVEN-based HYBRID framework is used to find the optimal installed capacity and the optimal economical dispatch of each component of the N-R HES. HYBRID solves the coupled capacity planning-economic and dispatch optimization problem with the objective of minimizing the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). In the optimization of the power dispatch strategy, the HYBRID framework takes into account the time-dependent dynamics of each subsystem by including a Dymola object-oriented model of the process dynamics. To ease the computational burden of the optimization process, an initial guess for the dispatch optimization problem is provided by a preconditioner. The solution guess is calculated by means of a least-marginal cost approach which applies the same criterion behind the screening curve method. Though this algorithm allows evaluating an economically adapted generation mix for a target load duration curve within a few seconds, it neglects the constraints due to the single component dynamics, and it is not able to adequately represent the ES. An improved treatment of the pre-conditioner problem was addressed by introducing a Monte Carlo based optimization algorithm. The new approach takes into account limits on power rates for the system subcomponents, which was not previously done. Additionally, this new Monte-Carlo based preconditioner addresses the problem with the ES component through improved modeling of that component. The new algorithm has been implemented in the HYBRID framework and tested to assess its performance. The results obtained with the new Monte Carlobased preconditioner were benchmarked against those obtained through the reference deterministic approach. The comparison shows that the Monte-Carlo based approach provides improved solution accuracy to the power dispatch optimization problem. Also in this report, the treatment of the penalty function on LCOE is discussed, and an improved penalty function for missed demand is suggested and tested.

Maronati, Giovanni↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM) (Version 3.0 Technical Reference Manual)

The HyRAM software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen infrastructure and transportation systems. HyRAM is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art science and engineering models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of hydrogen safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM includes generic probabilities for hydrogen equipment failures, probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, and computationally and experimentally validated first-order models of hydrogen release and flame physics. HyRAM integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing hydrogen hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, overpressure effects from deflagrations), and assessing impact on people and structures. HyRAM is developed at Sandia National Laboratories for the U.S. Department of Energy to increase access to technical data about hydrogen safety and to enable the use of that data to support development and revision of national and international codes and standards. HyRAM is a research software in active development and thus the models and data may change. This report will be updated at appropriate developmental intervals. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in the HyRAM version 3.0. HyRAM 3.0 includes the new ability to model cryogenic hydrogen releases from liquid hydrogen systems, using a different property calculation method and different equations of state. Other changes include modifications to the ignition probability calculations, component leak frequency calculations, and addition of default impulse data.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2017

Coupled land surface–subsurface hydrogeophysical inverse modeling to estimate soil organic carbon content and explore associated hydrological and thermal dynamics in the Arctic tundra

Quantitative characterization of soil organic carbon (OC) content is essential due to its significant impacts on surface–subsurface hydrological–thermal processes and microbial decomposition of OC, which both in turn are important for predicting carbon–climate feedbacks. While such quantification is particularly important in the vulnerable organic-rich Arctic region, it is challenging to achieve due to the general limitations of conventional core sampling and analysis methods, and to the extremely dynamic nature of hydrological–thermal processes associated with annual freeze–thaw events. In this study, we develop and test an inversion scheme that can flexibly use single or multiple datasets – including soil liquid water content, temperature and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data – to estimate the vertical distribution of OC content. Our approach relies on the fact that OC content strongly influences soil hydrological–thermal parameters and, therefore, indirectly controls the spatiotemporal dynamics of soil liquid water content, temperature and their correlated electrical resistivity. We employ the Community Land Model to simulate nonisothermal surface–subsurface hydrological dynamics from the bedrock to the top of canopy, with consideration of land surface processes (e.g., solar radiation balance, evapotranspiration, snow accumulation and melting) and ice–liquid water phase transitions. For inversion, we combine a deterministic and an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) optimization algorithm to estimate a posteriori distributions of desired model parameters. For hydrological–thermal-to-geophysical variable transformation, the simulated subsurface temperature, liquid water content and ice content are explicitly linked to soil electrical resistivity via petrophysical and geophysical models. We validate the developed scheme using different numerical experiments and evaluate the influence of measurement errors and benefit of joint inversion on the estimation of OC and other parameters. We also quantify the propagation of uncertainty from the estimated parameters to prediction of hydrological–thermal responses. We find that, compared to inversion of single dataset (temperature, liquid water content or apparent resistivity), joint inversion of these datasets significantly reduces parameter uncertainty. We find that the joint inversion approach is able to estimate OC and sand content within the shallow active layer (top 0.3 m of soil) with high reliability. Due to the small variations of temperature and moisture within the shallow permafrost (here at about 0.6 m depth), the approach is unable to estimate OC with confidence. However, if the soil porosity is functionally related to the OC and mineral content, which is often observed in organic-rich Arctic soil, the uncertainty of OC estimate at this depth remarkably decreases. Our study documents the value of the new surface–subsurface, deterministic–stochastic inversion approach, as well as the benefit of including multiple types of data to estimate OC and associated hydrological–thermal dynamics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Consequences of Asteroid Characterization on the State of Knowledge about Inferred Physical Properties and Impact Risk

Physical characteristics of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are essential inputs to planetary defense assessments. The size, density, and strength of an NEO are critical inputs to modeling behavior during atmospheric entry as well as assessing the risk of impact. Similarly, knowledge of the physical characteristics of an object are necessary to evaluate the probable result of a mitigation mission. Usually, these attributes cannot be directly measured, but increasingly sophisticated methods have been developed to infer physical properties from related measurements of asteroids, meteors, and/or meteorites. Fortuitously, some of these measurements have been obtained for enough NEOs to elucidate the distribution of values across the sampled population. However, the situation becomes more challenging when considering a specific asteroid, since it is unlikely that all the relevant measurements have been made for any given object. We have developed a Bayesian network that can combine available information about a particular NEO with knowledge of the larger population to infer probabilistic values and uncertainties for physical characteristics of interest. Distributions of asteroid population albedos, taxonomic classes, and macroporosities, along with meteorite density distributions and associations between taxonomic classes and meteorite classes, provide the default distributions for the network’s parameter nodes. The inference network links parameters for each virtual asteroid either deterministically or probabilistically as appropriate, and eliminates any unphysical combinations of parameters. Within the context of planetary defense, our Bayesian network can be used to constrain the ranges of likely impactor properties, which can subsequently reduce the uncertainty in modelling of atmospheric entry, mitigation efficacy, and impact risk assessment. When additional measurements become available for a specific object, the network incorporates those measurements to generate virtual asteroids with property distributions that are consistent with the measurements. We will use the 2023 PDC scenario to demonstrate how the inference network can be combined with plausible characterization measurements to refine the state of knowledge about likely combinations of physical parameters and the resulting impact risk.

risk assessment↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Consequences of Asteroid Characterization on the State of Knowledge about Inferred Physical Properties and Impact Risk

risk assessment↗

DOE OSTI2020

Aerodynamic Data Fusion Toward the Digital Twin Paradigm

This paper considers the fusion of two aerodynamic data sets originating from differing types of physical or computer experiments. This paper specifically addresses the fusion of 1) noisy and in-complete fields from wind-tunnel measurements and 2) deterministic but biased fields from numerical simulations. These two data sources are fused in order to estimate the true field that best matches measured quantities that serve as the ground truth. For example, two sources of pressure fields about an aircraft are fused based on measured forces and moments from a wind-tunnel experiment. A fundamental challenge in this problem is that the true field is unknown and cannot be estimated with 100% certainty. A Bayesian framework is employed to infer the true fields conditioned on measured quantities of interest; essentially a statistical correction to the data is performed. The fused data may then be used to construct more accurate surrogate models suitable for early stages of aerospace design. An extension of the proper orthogonal decomposition with constraints is also introduced to solve the same problem. In this work, both methods are demonstrated on fusing the pressure distributions for flow past the RAE2822 airfoil and the Common Research Model wing at transonic conditions. Comparison of both methods reveals that the Bayesian method is more robust when data are scarce and capable of also accounting for uncertainties in the data. Furthermore, given adequate data, the proper-orthogonal-decomposition-based and Bayesian approaches lead to surprisingly similar results.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2009

Convective Weather Avoidance with Uncertain Weather Forecasts

Convective weather events have a disruptive impact on air traffic both in terminal area and in en-route airspaces. In order to make sure that the national air transportation system is safe and efficient, it is essential to respond to convective weather events effectively. Traffic flow control initiatives in response to convective weather include ground delay, airborne delay, miles-in-trail restrictions as well as tactical and strategic rerouting. The rerouting initiatives can potentially increase traffic density and complexity in regions neighboring the convective weather activity. There is a need to perform rerouting in an intelligent and efficient way such that the disruptive effects of rerouting are minimized. An important area of research is to study the interaction of in-flight rerouting with traffic congestion or complexity and developing methods that quantitatively measure this interaction. Furthermore, it is necessary to find rerouting solutions that account for uncertainties in weather forecasts. These are important steps toward managing complexity during rerouting operations, and the paper is motivated by these research questions. An automated system is developed for rerouting air traffic in order to avoid convective weather regions during the 20- minute - 2-hour time horizon. Such a system is envisioned to work in concert with separation assurance (0 - 20-minute time horizon), and longer term air traffic management (2-hours and beyond) to provide a more comprehensive solution to complexity and safety management. In this study, weather is dynamic and uncertain; it is represented as regions of airspace that pilots are likely to avoid. Algorithms are implemented in an air traffic simulation environment to support the research study. The algorithms used are deterministic but periodically revise reroutes to account for weather forecast updates. In contrast to previous studies, in this study convective weather is represented as regions of airspace that pilots are likely to avoid. The automated system periodically updates forecasts and reassesses rerouting decisions in order to account for changing weather predictions. The main objectives are to reroute flights to avoid convective weather regions and determine the resulting complexity due to rerouting. The eventual goal is to control and reduce complexity while rerouting flights during the 20 minute - 2 hour planning period. A three-hour simulation is conducted using 4800 flights in the national airspace. The study compares several metrics against a baseline scenario using the same traffic and weather but with rerouting disabled. The results show that rerouting can have a negative impact on congestion in some sectors, as expected. The rerouting system provides accurate measurements of the resulting complexity in the congested sectors. Furthermore, although rerouting is performed only in the 20-minute - 2-hour range, it results in a 30% reduction in encounters with nowcast weather polygons (100% being the ideal for perfectly predictable and accurate weather). In the simulations, rerouting was performed for the 20-minute - 2-hour flight time horizon, and for the en-route segment of air traffic. The implementation uses CWAM, a set of polygons that represent probabilities of pilot deviation around weather. The algorithms were implemented in a software-based air traffic simulation system. Initial results of the system's performance and effectiveness were encouraging. Simulation results showed that when flights were rerouted in the 20-minute - 2-hour flight time horizon of air traffic, there were fewer weather encounters in the first 20 minutes than for flights that were not rerouted. Some preliminary results were also obtained that showed that rerouting will also increase complexity. More simulations will be conducted in order to report conclusive results on the effects of rerouting on complexity. Thus, the use of the 20-minute - 2-hour flight time horizon weather avoidance teniques performed in the simulation is expected to provide benefits for short-term weather avoidance.

Karahan, Sinan↗

DOE OSTI2017

SuPer-Homogenization (SPH) Corrected Cross Section Generation for High Temperature Reactor

The deterministic full core simulators require homogenized group constants covering the operating and transient conditions over the entire lifetime. Traditionally, the homogenized group constants are generated using lattice physics code over an assembly or block in the case of prismatic high temperature reactors (HTR). For the case of strong absorbers that causes strong local depressions on the flux profile require special techniques during homogenization over a large volume. Fuel blocks with burnable poisons or control rod blocks are example of such cases. Over past several decades, there have been a tremendous number of studies performed for improving the accuracy of full-core calculations through the homogenization procedure. However, those studies were mostly performed for light water reactor (LWR) analyses, thus, may not be directly applicable to advanced thermal reactors such as HTRs. This report presents the application of SuPer-Homogenization correction method to a hypothetical HTR core.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multi-head physics-informed neural networks for learning functional priors and uncertainty quantification

In numerous applications, the integration of prior knowledge and historical information is essential, particularly for tasks requiring the solution of ordinary or partial differential equations (ODEs/PDEs) in data-sparse or noisy environments. For instance, achieving accurate solutions to time-dependent PDEs with limited initial condition measurements necessitates an effective strategy for embedding prior knowledge. Hard-parameter sharing architectures in neural networks (NNs) have demonstrated success in both traditional and scientific machine learning domains, facilitating the learning of informative representations. Here, in this study, we introduce a novel, yet efficient, method to enhance physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) by incorporating a multi-head structure that enables the learning of functional priors from both empirical data and governing physical laws. This prior information can then be used to address data sparsity and high-level noise in solving ODE/PDE problems with uncertainty quantification (UQ). The approach, termed Multi-Head PINN (MH-PINN), consists of a shared body NN and multiple head NNs, each corresponding to an individual PINN instance. Our framework for functional prior learning is carried out in two stages: (1) training the MH-PINNs to develop a shared body NN alongside multiple head NNs, and (2) employing these trained head NNs to estimate a prior distribution through a normalizing flow-based density estimator. The learned functional prior can then be applied as a regularization mechanism in deterministic contexts or as an informative prior within a Bayesian inference framework, aiding in the resolution of subsequent ODE/PDE tasks. We evaluate the efficacy of MH-PINNs across five benchmark problems, including a high-dimensional parametric PDE, all characterized by data sparsity or substantial noise levels. Our findings reveal that MH-PINNs deliver accurate solutions and robust UQ, demonstrating adaptability across a range of complex and challenging scenarios.

Bayesian inference↗

DOE OSTI2019

Chance Constraints for Improving the Security of AC Optimal Power Flow

This paper introduces a scalable method for improving the solutions of ac optimal power flow (AC OPF) with respect to deviations in predicted power injections from wind and other uncertain generation resources. The aim of this paper is on providing solutions that are more robust to short-term deviations, and that optimize both the initial operating point and a parametrized response policy for control during fluctuations. We formulate this as a chance-constrained optimization problem. To obtain a tractable representation of the chance constraints, we introduce a number of modeling assumptions and leverage recent theoretical results to reformulate the problem as a convex, second-order cone program, which is efficiently solvable even for large instances. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed procedure improves the feasibility and cost performance of the OPF solution, while the additional computation time is on the same magnitude as a single deterministic AC OPF calculation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2008

Integration for Airborne Dust Prediction Systems and Vegetation Phenology to Track Pollen for Asthma Alerts in Public Health Decision Support Systems

The objective of the program is to assess the feasibility of combining a dust transport model with MODIS derived phenology to study pollen transport for integration with a public health decision support system. The use of pollen information has specifically be identified as a critical need by the New Mexico State Health department for inclusion in the Environmental Public Health Tracking (EPHT) program. Material and methods: Pollen can be transported great distances. Local observations of plan phenology may be consistent with the timing and source of pollen collected by pollen sampling instruments. The Dust REgional Atmospheric Model (DREAM) is an integrated modeling system designed to accurately describe the dust cycle in the atmosphere. The dust modules of the entire system incorporate the state of the art parameterization of all the major phases of the atmospheric dust life such as production, diffusion, advection, and removal. These modules also include effects of the particles size distribution on aerosol dispersion. The model was modified to use pollen sources instead of dust. Pollen release was estimated based on satellite-derived phenology of key plan species and vegetation communities. The MODIS surface reflectance product (MOD09) provided information on the start of the plant growing season, growth stage, and pollen release. The resulting deterministic model is useful for predicting and simulating pollen emission and downwind concentration to study details of phenology and meteorology and their dependencies. The proposed linkage in this project provided critical information on the location timing and modeled transport of pollen directly to the EPHT> This information is useful to support the centers for disease control and prevention (CDC)'s National EPHT and the state of New Mexico environmental public health decision support for asthma and allergies alerts.

Luvall, J. C.↗