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At least 937 records · Page 52
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Data-driven cyber attack detection and mitigation for decentralized wide-area protection and control in smart grids

Modern power systems have already evolved into complicated cyber physical systems (CPS), often referred to as smart grids, due to the continuous expansion of the electrical infrastructure, the augmentation of the number of heterogeneous system components and players, and the consequential application of a diversity of information and telecommunication technologies to facilitate the Wide Area Monitoring, Protection and Control (WAMPAC) of the day-to-day power system operation. Because of the reliance on cyber technologies, WAMPAC, among other critical functions, is prone to various malicious cyber attacks. Successful cyber attacks, especially those sabotage the operation of Bulk Electric System (BES), can cause great financial losses and social panics. Application of conventional IT security solutions is indispensable, but it often turns out to be insufficient to mitigate sophisticated attacks that deploy zero-day vulnerabilities or social engineering tactics. To further improve the resilience of the operation of smart grids when facing cyber attacks, it is desirable to make the WAMPAC functions per se capable of detecting various anomalies automatically, carrying out adaptive activity adjustments in time and thus staying unimpaired even under attack. Most of the existing research efforts attempt to achieve this by adding novel functional modules, such as model-based anomaly detectors, to the legacy centralized WAMPAC functions. In contrast, this dissertation investigates the application of data-driven algorithms in cyber attack detection and mitigation within a decentralized architecture aiming at improving the situational awareness and self-adaptiveness of WAMPAC. First part of the research focuses on the decentralization of System Integrity Protection Scheme (SIPS) with Multi-Agent System (MAS), within which the data-driven anomaly detection and optimal adaptive load shedding are further explored. An algorithm named as Support Vector Machine embedded Layered Decision Tree (SVMLDT) is proposed for the anomaly detection, which provides satisfactory detection accuracy as well as decision-making interpretability. The adaptive load shedding is carried out by every agent individually with dynamic programming. The load shedding relies on the load profile propagation among peer agents and the attack adaptiveness is accomplished by maintaining the historical mean of load shedding proportion. Load shedding only takes place after the consensus pertaining to the anomaly detection is achieved among all interconnected agents and it serves the purpose of mitigating certain cyber attacks. The attack resilience of the decentralized SIPS is evaluated using IEEE 39 bus model. It is shown that, unlike the traditional centralized SIPS, the proposed solution is able to carry out the remedial actions under most Denial of Service (DoS) attacks. The second part investigates the clustering based anomalous behavior detection and peer-assisted mitigation for power system generation control. To reduce the dimensionality of the data, three metrics are designed to interpret the behavior conformity of generator within the same balancing area. Semi-supervised K-means clustering and a density sensitive clustering algorithm based on Hierarchical DBSCAN (HDBSCAN) are both applied in clustering in the 3D feature space. Aiming to mitigate the cyber attacks targeting the generation control commands, a peer-assisted strategy is proposed. When the control commands from control center is detected as anomalous, i.e. either missing or the payload of which have been manipulated, the generating unit utilizes the peer data to infer and estimate a new generation adjustment value as replacement. Linear regression is utilized to obtain the relation of control values received by different generating units, Moving Target Defense (MTD) is adopted during the peer selection and 1-dimensional clustering is performed with the inferred control values, which are followed by the final control value estimation. The mitigation strategy proposed requires that generating units can communicate with each other in a peer-to-peer manner. Evaluation results suggest the efficacy of the proposed solution in counteracting data availability and data integrity attacks targeting the generation controls. However, the strategy stays effective only if less than half of the generating units are compromised and it is not able to mitigate cyber attacks targeting the measurements involved in the generation control.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2003

Estimating Blade Section Airloads from Blade Leading-Edge Pressure Measurements

The Tilt-Rotor Aeroacoustic Model (TRAM) test in the Duitse-Nederlandse Wind (DNW) Tunnel acquired blade pressure data for forward flight test conditions of a tiltrotor in helicopter mode. Chordwise pressure data at seven radial locations were integrated to obtain the blade section normal force. The present investigation evaluates the use of linear regression analysis and of neural networks in estimating the blade section normal force coefficient from a limited number of blade leading-edge pressure measurements and representative operating conditions. These network models are subsequently used to estimate the airloads at intermediate radial locations where only blade pressure measurements at the 3.5% chordwise stations are available.

vanAken, Johannes M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating basis functions in massive fields under the spatial mixed effects model

Abstract Spatial prediction is commonly achieved under the assumption of a Gaussian random field by obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of parameters, and then using the kriging equations to arrive at predicted values. For massive datasets, fixed rank kriging using the expectation–maximization algorithm for estimation has been proposed as an alternative to the usual but computationally prohibitive kriging method. The method reduces computation cost of estimation by redefining the spatial process as a linear combination of basis functions and spatial random effects. A disadvantage of this method is that it imposes constraints on the relationship between the observed locations and the knots. We develop an alternative method that utilizes the spatial mixed effects model, but allows for additional flexibility by estimating the range of the spatial dependence between the observations and the knots via an alternating expectation conditional maximization algorithm. Experiments show that our methodology improves estimation without sacrificing prediction accuracy while also minimizing the additional computational burden of extra parameter estimation. The methodology is applied to a temperature dataset archived by the United States National Climate Data Center, with improved results over previous methodology.

Pazdernik, Karl↗
DOE OSTI2019

Inverse regression for ridge recovery: a data-driven approach for parameter reduction in computer experiments

Parameter reduction can enable otherwise infeasible design and uncertainty studies with modern computational science models that contain several input parameters. In statistical regression, techniques for sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) use data to reduce the predictor dimension of a regression problem. A computational scientist hoping to use SDR for parameter reduction encounters a problem: a computer prediction is best represented by a deterministic function of the inputs, so data comprised of computer simulation queries fail to satisfy the SDR assumptions. To address this problem, here we interpret SDR methods sliced inverse regression (SIR) and sliced average variance estimation (SAVE) as estimating the directions of a ridge function, which is a composition of a low-dimensional linear transformation with a nonlinear function. Within this interpretation, SIR and SAVE estimate matrices of integrals whose column spaces are contained in the ridge directions’ span; we analyze and numerically verify convergence of these column spaces as the number of computer model queries increases. Moreover, we show example functions that are not ridge functions but whose inverse conditional moment matrices are low-rank. Consequently, the computational scientist should beware when using SIR and SAVE for parameter reduction, since SIR and SAVE may mistakenly suggest that truly important directions are unimportant.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Low dose radiation risks for women surviving the a-bombs in Japan: generalized additive model

Background: Analyses of cancer mortality and incidence in Japanese A-bomb survivors have been used to estimate radiation risks, which are generally higher for women. Relative Risk (RR) is usually modelled as a linear function of dose. Extrapolation from data including high doses predicts small risks at low doses. Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) are flexible methods for modelling non-linear behaviour. Methods: GAMs are applied to cancer incidence in female low dose subcohorts, using anonymous public data for the 1958 – 1998 Life Span Study, to test for linearity, explore interactions, adjust for the skewed dose distribution, examine significance below 100 mGy, and estimate risks at 10 mGy. Results: For all solid cancer incidence, RR estimated from 0 – 100 mGy and 0 – 20 mGy subcohorts is significantly raised. The response tapers above 150 mGy. At low doses, RR increases with age-at-exposure and decreases with time-since-exposure, the preferred covariate. Using the empirical cumulative distribution of dose improves model fit, and capacity to detect non-linear responses. RR is elevated over wide ranges of covariate values. Results are stable under simulation, or when removing exceptional data cells, or adjusting neutron RBE. Estimates of Excess RR at 10 mGy using the cumulative dose distribution are 10 – 45 times higher than extrapolations from a linear model fitted to the full cohort. Below 100 mGy, quasipoisson models find significant effects for all solid, squamous, uterus, corpus, and thyroid cancers, and for respiratory cancers when age-at-exposure > 35 yrs. Results for the thyroid are compatible with studies of children treated for tinea capitis, and Chernobyl survivors. Results for the uterus are compatible with studies of UK nuclear workers and the Techa River cohort. Conclusion: Non-linear models find large, significant cancer risks for Japanese women exposed to low dose radiation from the atomic bombings. The risks should be reflected in protection standards.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

The Coupled Adjoint-State Equation in forward and inverse linear elasticity: Incompressible plane stress

A persistent challenge present in inverse or parameter estimation problems with interior data is how to deal with uncertainty in the boundary conditions employed in the forward or state model. In this work we focus on a linear plane stress inverse elasticity problem with measured displacement data where one component of the measured displacement field is known with considerably greater precision than the other. This situation is commonly encountered when the displacement field is measured using ultrasound or optical coherence tomography. We present a novel computational formulation in which no displacement or traction boundary conditions are assumed. The formulation results in coupling the state and adjoint equations, that are typically uncoupled when a well-posed state model is available. Two variants of residual-based stabilization are added. Our approach is applied to a simulated data set and experimental data from an ultrasound phantom.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Online State Estimation for Time-Varying Systems

The paper investigates the problem of estimating the state of a time-varying system with a linear measurement model; in particular, the paper considers the case where the number of measurements available can be smaller than the number of states. In lieu of a batch linear least-squares (LS) approach well-suited for static networks, where a sufficient number of measurements could be collected to obtain a full-rank design matrix the paper proposes an online algorithm to estimate the possibly time-varying state by processing measurements as and when available. The design of the algorithm hinges on a generalized LS cost augmented with a proximal-point-type regularization. With the solution of the regularized LS problem available in closed-form, the online algorithm is written as a linear dynamical system where the state is updated based on the previous estimate and based on the new available measurements. Conditions under which the algorithmic steps are in fact a contractive mapping are shown, and bounds on the estimation error are derived for different noise models. Numerical simulations are provided to corroborate the analytical findings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1976

Ground cover estimated from aerial photographs

Estimates of per cent ground cover made by ground observers were compared with independent estimates made on the basis of low-altitude (640-1219 m) aerial photographs of the same fields. Standard statistical simple correlation and linear regression analyses revealed a high correlation between the two estimation methods. In crops such as grain, sorghum, corn, and forage sorghum, in which the broadest part of the leaf canopy is near the top of the plant, there was a tendency to overestimate the per cent ground cover from aerial photographs.

Gerbermann, A. H.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Statistical analyses of reservoir and fracturing parameters for a multifractured shale oil reservoir in Mississippi

The use of multifractured horizontal wells has improved the efficiency of hydrocarbon extraction from shale gas and oil plays. It is highly desirable to estimate the characteristics of the reservoir and well fracturing through production data analysis. Production rate transient data from 16 wells in the Mississippi sections were analyzed to estimate local reservoir permeability and hydraulic fracture parameters. Key factors affecting well productivity have been identified for optimizing future well completion. Based on the theory of distance of investigation during transient linear flow, the reservoir matrix permeability of TMS was estimated to be between 53 nd and 210 nd, averaging at 116 nd. The matrix permeability follows the lognormal distribution and is considered homogeneous according to the coefficient of variation. The fracture half-length was estimated using the matrix permeability data from the rate transient analysis. The fracture half-length was found to have a mean value of 234 ft with a standard deviation of 66 ft in a normal distribution. The fracture conductivity was back-calculated by matching pseudosteady production rate data to Guo et al's (SPE Reserve Eval Eng.12, 2009, 879) productivity model for boundary-dominated flow. The fracture conductivity was estimated to range from 0.4 md-ft to 3.2 md-ft, averaging at 1.4 md-ft. Based on Guo et al's (SPE Reserve Eval Eng.12, 2009, 879) well productivity model applied to TMS condition, well productivity can be improved significantly by increasing fracture length and conductivity. Future TMS wells should be completed with conductivity values of greater than 10 md-ft.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Indirect Validation of Probe Speed Data on Arterial Corridors

This study aimed to estimate the accuracy of probe speed data on arterial corridors on the basis of roadway geometric attributes and functional classification. It was assumed that functional class (medium and low) along with other road characteristics (such as weighted average of the annual average daily traffic, average signal density, average access point density, and average speed) were available as correlation factors to estimate the accuracy of probe traffic data. This study tested these factors as predictors of the fidelity of probe traffic data by using the results of an extensive validation exercise. This study showed strong correlations between these geometric attributes and the accuracy of probe data when they were assessed by using average absolute speed error. Linear models were regressed to existing data to estimate appropriate models for medium- and low-type arterial corridors. The proposed models for medium- and low-type arterials were validated further on the basis of the results of a slowdown analysis. These models can be used to predict the accuracy of probe data indirectly in medium and low types of arterial corridors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effective data sampling strategies and boundary condition constraints of physics-informed neural networks for identifying material properties in solid mechanics

Material identification is critical for understanding the relationship between mechanical properties and the associated mechanical functions. However, material identification is a challenging task, especially when the characteristic of the material is highly nonlinear in nature, as is common in biological tissue. In this work, we identify unknown material properties in continuum solid mechanics via physics-informed neural networks (PINNs). To improve the accuracy and efficiency of PINNs, we develop efficient strategies to nonuniformly sample observational data. We also investigate different approaches to enforce Dirichlet-type boundary conditions (BCs) as soft or hard constraints. Finally, we apply the proposed methods to a diverse set of time-dependent and time-independent solid mechanic examples that span linear elastic and hyperelastic material space. The estimated material parameters achieve relative errors of less than 1%. As such, this work is relevant to diverse applications, including optimizing structural integrity and developing novel materials.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interaction between dissolution and precipitation during olivine carbonation: Implications for CO 2 mineralization

Large-scale carbonation of olivine is considered a promising approach for in situ mineral carbonation, offering a permanent and stable method for CO 2 storage. A critical aspect of this process is understanding how dissolution and precipitation interact, as this could drive fracturing and enhance further reactions. In this study, we conducted carbonation experiments on olivine using CO 2 -saturated aqueous solutions of NaHCO 3 and NaCl. Two experimental setups were used: one representing an open geochemical system and the other a closed system, corresponding to reaction-limited and flow-limited scenarios, respectively. Further, post-reaction textural analysis using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) revealed surface coatings of reaction products in the closed system, while etch pits and etch channels were prevalent in the open system. Although no direct evidence of reaction-driven fracturing was observed, etch pits and etch channels may serve as initiation points for subcritical crack formation and growth, potentially maintaining permeability and exposing new unreacted surfaces. Using linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) model, we estimate that microcracks could propagate under a pressure of 0.1 GPa if reaction products accumulate within the etch pits. Our findings offer new insights into the mechanisms governing olivine carbonation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

Spline based least squares integration for two-dimensional shape or wavefront reconstruction

In this paper, we present a novel method to handle two-dimensional shape or wavefront reconstruction from its slopes. The proposed integration method employs splines to fit the measured slope data with piecewise polynomials and uses the analytical polynomial functions to represent the height changes in a lateral spacing with the pre-determined spline coefficients. The linear least squares method is applied to estimate the height or wavefront as a final result. Numerical simulations verify that the proposed method has less algorithm errors than two other existing methods used for comparison. Especially at the boundaries, the proposed method has better performance. The noise influence is studied by adding white Gaussian noise to the slope data. Finally, experimental data from phase measuring deflectometry are tested to demonstrate the feasibility of the new method in a practical measurement.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Cyber-Physical Attacks With Control Objectives

This study studies attackers with control objectives against cyber-physical systems (CPSs). The goal of the attacker is to counteract the CPS's controller and move the system to a target state while evading detection. We formulate a cost function that reflects the attacker's goals, and, using dynamic programming, we show that the optimal attack strategy reduces to a linear feedback of the attacker's state estimate. By changing the parameters of the cost function, we show how an attacker can design optimal attacks to balance the control objective and the detection avoidance objective. In conclusion, we provide a numerical illustration based on a remotely controlled helicopter under attack.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Optimal Attack Strategies Subject to Detection Constraints Against Cyber-Physical Systems

This paper studies an attacker against a cyberphysical system (CPS) whose goal is to move the state of a CPS to a target state while ensuring that his or her probability of being detected does not exceed a given bound. The attacker’s probability of being detected is related to the nonnegative bias induced by his or her attack on the CPS’s detection statistic. We formulate a linear quadratic cost function that captures the attacker’s control goal and establish constraints on the induced bias that reflect the attacker’s detection-avoidance objectives. When the attacker is constrained to be detected at the false-alarm rate of the detector, we show that the optimal attack strategy reduces to a linear feedback of the attacker’s state estimate. In the case that the attacker’s bias is upper bounded by a positive constant, we provide two algorithms – an optimal algorithm and a sub-optimal, less computationally intensive algorithm – to find suitable attack sequences. Lastly, we illustrate our attack strategies in numerical examples based on a remotely-controlled helicopter under attack.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-T-682: In-Vivo Simulation of the Relative Biological Effectiveness in Proton Therapy Using a Monte Carlo Method

Purpose: In proton therapy, the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) – compared with conventional photon therapy – is routinely set to 1.1. However, experimental in vitro studies indicate evidence for the variability of the RBE. To clarify the impact on patient treatment, investigation of the RBE in a preclinical case study should be performed. Methods: The Monte Carlo software TOPAS was used to simulate the radiation field of an irradiation setup at the experimental beamline of the proton therapy facility (OncoRay) in Dresden, Germany. Simulations were performed on cone beam CT-data (CBCT) of a xenogeneous mouse with an orthotopic lung carcinoma obtained by an in-house developed small animal image-guided radiotherapy device. A homogeneous physical fraction dose of 1.8Gy was prescribed for the contoured tumor volume. Simulated dose and linear energy transfer distributions were used to estimate RBE values in the mouse based on an RBE model by Wedenberg et al. To characterize radiation sensitivity of normal and tumor tissue, α/β-ratios were taken from the literature for NB1RGB (10.1Gy) and human squamous lung cancer (6.2Gy) cell lines, respectively. Results: Good dose coverage of the target volume was achieved with a spread-out Bragg peak (SOBP). The contra-lateral lung was completely spared from receiving radiation. An increase in RBE towards the distal end of the SOBP from 1.07 to 1.35 and from 1.05 to 1.3 was observed when considering normal tissue and tumor, respectively, with the highest RBE values located distal to the target volume. Conclusion: Modeled RBE values simulated on CBCT for experimental preclinical proton therapy varied with tissue type and depth in a mouse and differed therefore from a constant value of 1.1. Further translational work will include, first, conducting preclinical experiments and, second, analogous RBE studies in patients using experimentally verified simulation settings for our clinically used patient-specific beam conforming technique.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Self-reported health behaviors, including sleep, correlate with doctor-informed medical conditions: data from the 2011 Health Related Behaviors Survey of U.S. Active Duty Military Personnel

Health behaviors and cardiometabolic disease risk factors may differ between military and civilian populations; therefore, in U.S. active duty military personnel, we assessed relationships between demographic characteristics, self-reported health behaviors, and doctor-informed medical conditions. Methods Data were self-reported by 27,034 active duty military and Coast Guard personnel who responded to the 2011 Department of Defense Health Related Behaviors Survey. Multivariate linear and logistic regressions were used to estimate cross-sectional associations between (1) demographic characteristics (age, sex, service branch, marital status, children, race/ethnicity, pay grade) and self-reported behaviors (exercise, diet, smoking, alcohol, sleep); (2) demographic characteristics and doctor-informed medical conditions (hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, low high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, hyperglycemia) and overweight/obesity; and (3) behaviors and doctor-informed medical conditions. Results Among respondents (age 29.9 ± 0.1 years, 14.7% female), females reported higher intake than men of fruit, vegetables, and dairy; those with higher education reported higher intakes of whole grains; those currently married and/or residing with children reported higher intake of starches. Older age and female sex were associated with higher odds (ORs 1.25 to 12.54 versus the youngest age group) of overweight/obesity. Older age and female sex were also associated with lower odds (ORs 0.29 to 0.65 versus male sex) of doctor-informed medical conditions, except for blood glucose, for which females had higher odds. Those currently married had higher odds of high cholesterol and overweight/obesity, and separated/divorced/widowed respondents had higher odds of high blood pressure and high cholesterol. Short sleep duration (< 5 versus 7–8 h/night) was associated with higher odds (ORs 1.36to 2.22) of any given doctor-informed medical condition. Strength training was associated with lower probability of high cholesterol, high triglycerides, and low HDL, and higher probability of overweight/obesity. Dietary factors were variably associated with doctor-informed medical conditions and overweight/obesity. Conclusions This study observed pronounced associations between health behaviors—especially sleep—and medical conditions, thus adding to evidence that sleep is a critical, potentially modifiable behavior within this population. When possible, adequate sleep should continue to be promoted as an important part of overall health and wellness throughout the military community.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗