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DOE OSTI2018

A Monte Carlo-Based Approach to Assessing Annual Energy Production and Uncertainty

The industry standard approach to assessing annual energy production (AEP) uncertainty can be limited because of the assumption of uncorrelated uncertainty categories and subjectivity in calculations. A Monte Carlo approach to uncertainty quantification can largely overcome these limitations and provide a more robust assessment of energy uncertainty. Here, we demonstrate the Monte Carlo approach in the context of AEP estimation using operational data. Monthly net energy production for all reporting wind power plants in the United States was taken from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) 923 database. Atmospheric data from three reanalysis products were also considered. After filtering for wind plants that had at least 8 months of data and moderate-to-strong correlation with all three reanalysis products (R2 > 0.6), we assessed 472 wind power plants total.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Techno-Economic Assessment of Geothermal Power Plants Hybridized with Solar Heat and Thermal Storage

Geothermal power plants may experience a decrease in power output over time due to a reduction in either mass flow rate, temperature or pressure of the resource. A recent study quantified the temperature drawdown of U.S. double-flash geothermal power plants at 0.8% per year. Hybridizing existing geothermal plants with other renewable power sources to exploit the unused capacity of the geothermal power block has become an area of increasing interest. For instance, a geothermal power plant may be retrofitted with heat from a concentrating solar field. In addition, geothermal may be integrated with solar in a new-build site with the aim of combining the benefits of both technologies -- i.e. the baseload generation of geothermal, plus the relatively high efficiency of concentrating solar power. In this article, we give an overview of hybrid geothermal-solar projects undertaken at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in collaboration with various partners. We investigate the retrofit of double-flash and binary geothermal plants with solar heat. Off-design models are developed and validated with operational data. Annual simulations evaluate the hourly performance, the benefits of thermal storage, and are used to calculate economic metrics. Finally, we discuss the implications of integrating solar and geothermal in a new greenfield site.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Situation awareness and dynamic ensemble forecasting of abnormal behavior in cyber-physical system

A plurality of monitoring nodes may each generate a time-series of current monitoring node values representing current operation of a cyber-physical system. A feature-based forecasting framework may receive the time-series of and generate a set of current feature vectors using feature discovery techniques. The feature behavior for each monitoring node may be characterized in the form of decision boundaries that separate normal and abnormal space based on operating data of the system. A set of ensemble state-space models may be constructed to represent feature evolution in the time-domain, wherein the forecasted outputs from the set of ensemble state-space models comprise anticipated time evolution of features. The framework may then obtain an overall features forecast through dynamic ensemble averaging and compare the overall features forecast to a threshold to generate an estimate associated with at least one feature vector crossing an associated decision boundary.

Abbaszadeh, Masoud↗

DOE OSTI2021

Optimization of Mitigating System Performance Index to Improve Nuclear Power Plant Safety and Efficiency

MSPI (Mitigation System Performance Index) is one of the risk-informed, plant-specific performance indicators of NRC’s Reactor Oversight Process. MSPI is used by the regulator and nuclear industry to monitor and assess the performance of plant mitigating systems. In this project, a calculation tool has been developed by incorporating the plant operation data, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) data, and industry baseline values to automate the calculation process of MSPI and the generation of the report. This is the first stage in an effort to optimize the MSPI through advanced artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques to improve nuclear power plant safety and efficiency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Risk-informed autonomous adaptive cyber controllers

Technology related to risk-informed autonomous adaptive cyber controllers is disclosed. In one example of the disclosed technology, a method includes generating probabilities of a cyber-attack occurring along an attack surface of a network. The probabilities can be generated using sensor and operational data of a network as inputs to an attack graph. The risk scores can be determined using a plurality of fault trees and the generated probabilities from the attack graph. The respective risk scores can correspond to respective nodes of an event tree. The event tree and the determined risk scores can be used to determine risk estimates for a plurality of configurations of the network. The risk estimates for the plurality of configurations of the network can be used to reconfigure the network to reduce a risk from the cyber-attack.

Veeramany, Arun↗

DOE OSTI2022

Best Practices for Energy Management Information Systems Metadata Schemas

Fact sheet highlights best practices for metadata schemas and standard naming conventions, which improve the ability of an energy management information system (EMIS) to consistently analyze, visualize, and derive value from operational data. This best practice document is part of a series of fact sheets created to help accelerate the market adoption and use of EMIS in the federal sector. It provides an overview of best practices for using metadata in an EMIS stack, which can significantly reduce the initial time required to deploy an EMIS.

data tags↗

DOE OSTI2022

Application of Orthogonal Defect Classification for Software Reliability Analysis

The modernization of existing and new nuclear power plants with digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C) is a recent and highly trending topic. However, there lacks strong consensus on best-estimate reliability methodologies by both the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the industry. This has resulted in hesitation for further modernization projects until a more unified methodology is realized. In this work, we develop an approach called Orthogonal-defect Classification for Assessing Software Reliability (ORCAS) to quantify probabilities of various software failure modes in a DI&C system. The method utilizes accepted industry methodologies for software quality assurance that are also verified by experimental or mathematical formulations. In essence, the approach combines a semantic failure classification model with a reliability growth model to predict (and quantify) the potential failure modes of a DI&C software system. The semantic classification model is used to address the question: How do latent defects in software contribute to different software failure root causes? The use of reliability growth models is then used to address the question: Given the connection between latent defects and software failure root causes, how can we quantify the reliability of the software? A case study was conducted on a representative I&C platform (ChibiOS) running a smart sensor acquisition software developed by Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU). The testing and evidence collection guidance in ORCAS was applied, and defects were uncovered in the software. Qualitative evidence, such as condition coverage, was used to gauge the completeness and trustworthiness of the assessment while quantitative evidence was used to determine the software failure probabilities. The reliability of the software was then estimated and compared to existing operational data of the sensor device. It is demonstrated that by using ORCAS, a semantic reasoning framework can be developed to justify if the software is reliable (or unreliable) while still leveraging the strength of the existing methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Application of Orthogonal Defect Classification for Software Reliability Analysis

The modernization of existing and new nuclear power plants with digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C) is a recent and highly trending topic. However, there lacks strong consensus on best-estimate reliability methodologies by both the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the industry. This has resulted in hesitation for further modernization projects until a more unified methodology is realized. In this work, we develop an approach called Orthogonal-defect Classification for Assessing Software Reliability (ORCAS) to quantify probabilities of various software failure modes in a DI&C system. The method utilizes accepted industry methodologies for software quality assurance that are also verified by experimental or mathematical formulations. In essence, the approach combines a semantic failure classification model with a reliability growth model to predict (and quantify) the potential failure modes of a DI&C software system. The semantic classification model is used to address the question: How do latent defects in software contribute to different software failure root causes? The use of reliability growth models is then used to address the question: Given the connection between latent defects and software failure root causes, how can we quantify the reliability of the software? A case study was conducted on a representative I&C platform (ChibiOS) running a smart sensor acquisition software developed by Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU). The testing and evidence collection guidance in ORCAS was applied, and defects were uncovered in the software. Qualitative evidence, such as condition coverage, was used to gauge the completeness and trustworthiness of the assessment while quantitative evidence was used to determine the software failure probabilities. The reliability of the software was then estimated and compared to existing operational data of the sensor device. It is demonstrated that by using ORCAS, a semantic reasoning framework can be developed to justify software reliability (or unreliability) while still leveraging the strength of the existing methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Progress Update from the EV Charging Working Group (#982)

The EV charging working group (#982) was formed in summer 2022 to define the equip, points, relationships, and operational data related to Level 1-2 (AC) and Level 3 (DC) Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE). Last year, the working group developed formal EVSE-related equipment definitions, where were merged into the Project Haystack documentation in November 2022. More recently the group has also been working to expand and improve Haystack definitions related to electrical equipment and circuits. This initiative is important both for EV charging related applications and to improve Project Haystack's appeal to other industry verticals such as data centers, commercial building electrification, and more. In this presentation we will share the working group's motivation, progress, and near-term objectives.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

DOE OSTI2012

Comparison of a NuScale SMR conceptual core design using CASMO5/simulate5 and MCNP5

A key issue during the initial start-ups of new Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) is the lack of operational data for reactor model validation. To help better understand the accuracy of the reactor analysis codes CASMO5 and SIMULATE5, higher order comparisons to MCNP5 have been performed. These comparisons are for an initial core conceptual design of the NuScale reactor. The data have been evaluated at Hot Zero Power (HZP) conditions. Comparisons of core reactivity, fuel temperature coefficient (FTC), and moderator temperature coefficients (MTC) have been performed. Comparison results show good agreement between CASMO5/SIMULATE5 and MCNP5 for the conceptual initial core design. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Scalable Graph Analytics and HPC Operational Enhancement: Parallel Computing and ML/DL Innovations

Parallel computing plays a pivotal role in the efficient processing of large-scale graphs. Complex network analysis stands as a capti- vating research frontier, holding promise across diverse scientific domains such as sociology, biology, online media, and recommenda- tion systems. In this era, Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) have emerged as indispensable tools, underpinning remarkable technological achievements. Within this dynamic landscape, my research revolves around advancing parallel algorithms tailored for large-scale graph operations. To achieve this, I harness the power of cutting-edge technologies including OpenMP, MPI, HIP, and CUDA, on the High-Performance Computing (HPC) platforms to unlock optimal performance. I also apply ML/DL techniques to HPC operational data, to streamline the monitoring and maintenance of supercomputers, alleviating the complexities associated with their upkeep and enhancing user support. My research echoes the syn- ergy between parallel computing, large-scale graph analysis, and ML/DL, improving computational efficiency and user experience.

Sattar, Naw Safrin↗

DOE OSTI2013

Wastes associated with recycling spent MOX fuel into fast reactor oxide fuel

A study sponsored by the DOE has been performed by AREVA to estimate the process and secondary wastes produced from an 800 MTIHM/yr (initial metric tons heavy metal a year) recycling plant proposed to be built in the U.S. utilizing the COEX process and utilized some DOE defined assumptions and constraints. In this paper, this plant has been analyzed for a recycling campaign that included 89% UO{sub x} and 11% MOX UNF to estimate process and secondary waste quantities produced while manufacturing 28 MTIHM/yr of SFR fuel. AREVA utilized operational data from its backend facilities in France (La Hague and MELOX), and from recent advances in waste treatment technology to estimate the waste quantities. A table lists the volumes and types of the different final wastes for a recycling plant. For instance concerning general fission products the form of the final wastes is vitrified glass and its volume generation rate is 135 l/MTHM, concerning Iodine 129 waste its final form is synthetic rock and its volume generation rate is 0.625 l/MTIHM.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2017

MITR RELAP5 Model Validations at Steady States and Transients

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology Reactor (MITR-II) is a 6 MW university research reactor designed primarily for experiments using neuron beams and in-core irradiation facilities, and education. The objective of this study is to validate the MITR RELAP5 model, which includes the reactor core, primary coolant loop, secondary coolant loop and heat exchanger models. Two sets of operational data were collected for validation. Steady-state data for 1 MW, 3 MW, 5.5 MW was obtained in the first test. The continuous startup transient data and the cooling tower outlet coolant temperature reduction obtained during the second test. The five steady-state conditions and two transient conditions were calculated by the RELAP5. The reactor power and cooling tower outlet temperature were used as boundary conditions while the reactor core inlet temperature and outlet temperature were calculated. A comparison was made between the modeling results and the temperature measurements. The results show that the MITR RELAP5 modeling results are in good agreement with measurement data for both steady-state and transient conditions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Towards Agentic AI on Particle Accelerators

As particle accelerators grow in complexity, traditional control methods face increasing challenges in achieving optimal performance. This paper envisions a paradigm shift: a decentralized multi-agent framework for accelerator control, powered by Large Language Models (LLMs) and distributed among autonomous agents. We present a proposition of a self-improving decentralized system where intelligent agents handle high-level tasks and communication and each agent is specialized control individual accelerator components. This approach raises some questions: What are the future applications of AI in particle accelerators? How can we implement an autonomous complex system such as a particle accelerator where agents gradually improve through experience and human feedback? What are the implications of integrating a human-in-the-loop component for labeling operational data and providing expert guidance? We show two examples, where we demonstrate viability of such architecture.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reference Fuel Development for Non-Aluminum Spent Nuclear Fuel Management

The Savannah River Site (SRS) L Area Facility provides for the safe receipt, storage, handling, and shipping of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and has received more than 47,000 SNF assemblies since 1964. In order to consolidate receipt and storage analysis, L Area criticality safety has historically used several aluminum-clad “reference fuels” to establish bounding storage, handling, and cask loading limits and then applied a reactivity comparison approach to demonstrate that candidate fuels may be processed under the reference fuel limits. Currently, only aluminum-clad SNF from off-site research reactors are transferred on-site. The Accelerated Basin De-Inventory (ABD) program will begin the removal of bundled Non-Aluminum Spent Nuclear Fuel (NASNF) from the L Area disassembly basin for dissolution and disposition, which has driven the need for a non-aluminum reference fuel. This paper discusses the process and results of creating a new fictional homogenous NASNF highly enriched uranium reference fuel, “MITZ,” to be used in nuclear criticality safety evaluations for upcoming SNF disposition operations. Data demonstrating the relationship between neutron multiplication behavior and fuel spacing is generated for the new reference fuel MITZ as well as existing reference fuels representing several types of SNF assemblies.

Reference Fuel↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reference Fuel Development for Non-Aluminum Spent Nuclear Fuel Management

Reference Fuel↗

DOE OSTI2020

Loss Informed Dispatcher for Battery Systems (LIDBS)

LIDBS takes battery-system operational data as an input. It then cleans the data using density-based clustering methods, forms an initial loss model, and then embeds the loss model into the optimization formulation. LIDBS provides a much more informed dispatch strategy over state-of-the-art approaches.

Latif, Aadil↗

DOE OSTI2022

HPC Analytics of Fused Thermal Plants Data to Optimize Operating Envelope

In this project, ORNL extensively reviewed the ORAP RAM data, and it guided us to develop machine learning models that can predict time to next failures and forecast failure trends, which will be useful for optimizing power plant operation strategies. More specifically, we trained multiple random forest models and evaluated the model accuracy to validate with 10+ years of historical data. In addition, we implemented a web-based graphical user interface system for the models to show how our models can be used in more intuitive ways. This proof of concept allowed exploration of model use with power plant operators in mind. Developed machine learning models will be helpful for managing risks, planning maintenance and operation, ultimately reducing the down time and increasing the service hours. For future work, there are several interesting research topics including but not limited to model enhancement, creating synergy with traditional failure modeling approaches, and data-driven actionable recommendation and suggestions.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗