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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 937 records · Page 52
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Improved Spatiotemporal Representativeness and Bias Reduction of Satellite-Based Evapotranspiration Retrievals via Use of In Situ Meteorology and Constrained Canopy Surface Resistance

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the atmospheric and terrestrial water and energy budgets. Satellite-based vegetation index approaches have used remotely-sensed vegetation and reanalysis meteorological properties with surface energy balance models to estimate global ET (MOD16 ET). We reconstructed satellite retrievals using in situ meteorology (Argonne-ET) and evaluated them using a dense network of surface turbulent heat flux measurements. Argonne-ET resolves spatial heterogeneity of ET across the U.S. Southern Great Plains that is not well characterized by MOD16; MOD16 ET exhibits spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I (MI) significantly > 0 in May – Aug.), whereas in situ and Argonne-ET exhibit characteristics of a random spatial process (MI not significantly different from 0). The skill in resolving ET temporal variability is not significantly different between MOD16 and Argonne-ET (correlation coefficient = 0.75 and 0.72, respectively). However, the root mean square errors were significantly lower for Argonne-ET (36 W m -2 ) than MOD16 (43 W m -2 ), and MOD16 exhibits substantial bias in annual ET relative to in situ measurements (-38%). This is attributed to overestimation in the dry canopy surface resistance (rs) parameterization. Using rs constrained to the range of typical measured values, Argonne-ET substantially reduces the bias in the annual ET (+1%). The improved ET estimates are critical for regional water budget analyses. The methodology presented herein also demonstrates the ability to retrieve high temporally resolved (30-min; cf. 8-day MOD16) ET that can be used for development of processed-based diagnostics of model biases, and to elucidate avenues to improve ET model parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Geometric and topological entropies of sphere packing

Here, we present a statistical mechanical description of randomly packed spherical particles, where the average coordination number is treated as a macroscopic thermodynamic variable. The overall packing entropy is shown to have two contributions: geometric, reflecting statistical weights of individual configurations, and topological, which corresponds to the number of topologically distinct states. Both of them are computed in the thermodynamic limit for isostatic and weakly underconstrained packings in 2D and 3D. The theory generalizes concepts of granular and glassy configurational entropies for the case of nonjammed systems. It is directly applicable to sticky colloids and predicts an asymptotic phase behavior of sticky spheres in the limit of strong binding.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying Entangled Physics Relationships Through Sparse Matrix Decomposition to Inform Plasma Fusion Design

We report a sustainable burn platform through inertial confinement fusion (ICF) has been an ongoing challenge for over 50 years. Mitigating engineering limitations and improving the current design involves an understanding of the complex coupling of physical processes. While sophisticated simulation codes are used to model ICF implosions, these tools contain necessary numerical approximation but miss physical processes that limit predictive capability. Identification of relationships between controllable design inputs to ICF experiments and measurable outcomes (e.g., neutron yield, neutron velocity, areal density) from performed experiments can help guide the future design of experiments and development of simulation codes, to potentially improve the accuracy of the computational models used to simulate ICF experiments. We use sparse matrix decomposition methods to identify clusters of a few related design variables. Sparse principal component analysis (SPCA) identifies groupings that are related to the physical origin of the variables (laser, hohlraum, and capsule). A variable importance analysis finds that in addition to variables highly correlated with neutron yield, such as picket power and laser energy, variables that represent a dramatic change of the ICF design, such as number of pulse steps, are also very important. The obtained sparse components are then used to train a random forest (RF) regression surrogate for predicting total yield. The RF performance on the training and testing data compares with the performance of the RF trained using all the design variables considered. This work is intended to inform design changes in future ICF experiments by augmenting the expert intuition and simulation results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Analytic Analysis for Dynamic System Frequency in Power Systems Under Uncertain Variability

In this paper, a new systematic method is proposed to analyze the system frequency in power systems under uncertain variability (UV). UV gradually increases in power systems, which originates from the renewable energy generation, random loads, frequency measurement, and communication channels, exerting noteworthy impacts on dynamic system frequency. The UV is modeled as a stochastic process in this paper. Then, the stochastic differential equations are used to describe the dynamic system frequency response (SFR) of a power system under UV, which is based on the SFR model. To assess system frequency dynamics under UV, an index of intra-range probability is put forward. Based on stochastic analysis theory, an analytic method is proposed to analyze the system frequency under UV, by which the intra-range probability can be analytically solved. Compared with Monte Carlo simulation in a typical SFR case and the Iceland electricity transmission network, the proposed method shows almost the same results using much less computation resource. Finally, insights for improving the SFR under UV are provided. The proposed method can be used to quickly verify whether the system frequency could withstand the UV and stay in the security range.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1998

An Extended Objective Evaluation of the 29-km Eta Model for Weather Support to the United States Space Program

This report describes the Applied Meteorology Unit's objective verification of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction 29-km eta model during separate warm and cool season periods from May 1996 through January 1998. The verification of surface and upper-air point forecasts was performed at three selected stations important for 45th Weather Squadron, Spaceflight Meteorology Group, and National Weather Service, Melbourne operational weather concerns. The statistical evaluation identified model biases that may result from inadequate parameterization of physical processes. Since model biases are relatively small compared to the random error component, most of the total model error results from day-to-day variability in the forecasts and/or observations. To some extent, these nonsystematic errors reflect the variability in point observations that sample spatial and temporal scales of atmospheric phenomena that cannot be resolved by the model. On average, Meso-Eta point forecasts provide useful guidance for predicting the evolution of the larger scale environment. A more substantial challenge facing model users in real time is the discrimination of nonsystematic errors that tend to inflate the total forecast error. It is important that model users maintain awareness of ongoing model changes. Such changes are likely to modify the basic error characteristics, particularly near the surface.

Nutter, Paul↗
DOE OSTI2016

Multilevel resistive information storage and retrieval

The present invention relates to resistive random-access memory (RRAM or ReRAM) systems, as well as methods of employing multiple state variables to form degenerate states in such memory systems. The methods herein allow for precise write and read steps to form multiple state variables, and these steps can be performed electrically. Such an approach allows for multilevel, high density memory systems with enhanced information storage capacity and simplified information retrieval.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2014

HadISDH land surface multi-variable humidity and temperature record for climate monitoring

HadISDH.2.0.0 is the first gridded, multi-variable humidity and temperature in situ observations-only climate-data product that is homogenised and annually updated. It provides physically consistent estimates for specific humidity, vapour pressure, relative humidity, dew point temperature, wet bulb temperature, dew point depression and temperature. It is a monthly mean gridded (5° by 5°) product with uncertainty estimates that account for spatio-temporal sampling, climatology calculation, homogenisation and irreducible random measurement effects. It provides a tool for the long-term monitoring of a variety of humidity-related variables which have different impacts and implications for society. It is also useful for climate model evaluation and reanalyses validation. HadISDH.2.0.0 is shown to be in good agreement both with other estimates and with theoretical understanding. The data set is available from 1973 to the present. The theme common to all variables is of a warming world with more water vapour present in the atmosphere. The largest increases in water vapour are found over the tropics and the Mediterranean. Over the tropics and high northern latitudes the surface air over land is becoming more saturated. However, despite increasing water vapour over the mid-latitudes and Mediterranean, the surface air over land is becoming less saturated. These observed features may be due to atmospheric circulation changes, land–sea warming disparities and reduced water availability or changed land surface properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Predictive Model for Survival of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Generic E. coli in Soil Amended with Untreated Animal Manure

Abstract This study aimed at developing a predictive model that captures the influences of a variety of agricultural and environmental variables and is able to predict the concentrations of enteric bacteria in soil amended with untreated Biological Soil Amendments of Animal Origin (BSAAO) under dynamic conditions. We developed and validated a Random Forest model using data from a longitudinal field study conducted in mid‐Atlantic United States investigating the survival of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and generic E. coli in soils amended with untreated dairy manure, horse manure, or poultry litter. Amendment type, days of rain since the previous sampling day, and soil moisture content were identified as the most influential agricultural and environmental variables impacting concentrations of viable E. coli O157:H7 and generic E. coli recovered from amended soils. Our model results also indicated that E. coli O157:H7 and generic E. coli declined at similar rates in amended soils under dynamic field conditions.The Random Forest model accurately predicted changes in viable E. coli concentrations over time under different agricultural and environmental conditions. Our model also accurately characterized the variability of E. coli concentration in amended soil over time by providing upper and lower prediction bound estimates. Cross‐validation results indicated that our model can be potentially generalized to other geographic regions and incorporated into a risk assessment for evaluating the risks associated with application of untreated BSAAO. Our model can be validated for other regions and predictive performance also can be enhanced when data sets from additional geographic regions become available.

Pang, Hao↗
DOE OSTI2021

Detection of significant antiviral drug effects on COVID-19 with reasonable sample sizes in randomized controlled trials: A modeling study

Development of an effective antiviral drug for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global health priority. Although several candidate drugs have been identified through in vitro and in vivo models, consistent and compelling evidence from clinical studies is limited. The lack of evidence from clinical trials may stem in part from the imperfect design of the trials. We investigated how clinical trials for antivirals need to be designed, especially focusing on the sample size in randomized controlled trials. A modeling study was conducted to help understand the reasons behind inconsistent clinical trial findings and to design better clinical trials. We first analyzed longitudinal viral load data for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) without antiviral treatment by use of a within-host virus dynamics model. The fitted viral load was categorized into 3 different groups by a clustering approach. Comparison of the estimated parameters showed that the 3 distinct groups were characterized by different virus decay rates (p-value < 0.001). The mean decay rates were 1.17 d -1 (95% CI: 1.06 to 1.27 d -1 ), 0.777 d -1 (0.716 to 0.838 d -1 ), and 0.450 d -1 (0.378 to 0.522 d -1 ) for the 3 groups, respectively. Such heterogeneity in virus dynamics could be a confounding variable if it is associated with treatment allocation in compassionate use programs (i.e., observational studies). Subsequently, we mimicked randomized controlled trials of antivirals by simulation. An antiviral effect causing a 95% to 99% reduction in viral replication was added to the model. To be realistic, we assumed that randomization and treatment are initiated with some time lag after symptom onset. Using the duration of virus shedding as an outcome, the sample size to detect a statistically significant mean difference between the treatment and placebo groups (1:1 allocation) was 13,603 and 11,670 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) per group if all patients are enrolled regardless of timing of randomization. The sample size was reduced to 584 and 458 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) if only patients who are treated within 1 day of symptom onset are enrolled. We confirmed the sample size was similarly reduced when using cumulative viral load in log scale as an outcome. We used a conventional virus dynamics model, which may not fully reflect the detailed mechanisms of viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. The model needs to be calibrated in terms of both parameter settings and model structure, which would yield more reliable sample size calculation. In this study, we found that estimated association in observational studies can be biased due to large heterogeneity in viral dynamics among infected individuals, and statistically significant effect in randomized controlled trials may be difficult to be detected due to small sample size. The sample size can be dramatically reduced by recruiting patients immediately after developing symptoms. We believe this is the first study investigated the study design of clinical trials for antiviral treatment using the viral dynamics model.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Quantifying the value of redundant measurements at GCOS Reference Upper-Air Network sites

The potential for measurement redundancy to reduce uncertainty in atmospheric variables has not been investigated comprehensively for climate observations. We evaluated the usefulness of entropy and mutual correlation concepts, as defined in information theory, for quantifying random uncertainty and redundancy in time series of the integrated water vapour (IWV) and water vapour mixing ratio profiles provided by five highly instrumented GRUAN (GCOS, Global Climate Observing System, Reference Upper-Air Network) stations in 2010–2012. Results show that the random uncertainties on the IWV measured with radiosondes, global positioning system, microwave and infrared radiometers, and Raman lidar measurements differed by less than 8%. Comparisons of time series of IWV content from ground-based remote sensing instruments with in situ soundings showed that microwave radiometers have the highest redundancy with the IWV time series measured by radiosondes and therefore the highest potential to reduce the random uncertainty of the radiosondes time series. Moreover, the random uncertainty of a time series from one instrument can be reduced by ~ 60% by constraining the measurements with those from another instrument. The best reduction of random uncertainty is achieved by conditioning Raman lidar measurements with microwave radiometer measurements. In conclusion, specific instruments are recommended for atmospheric water vapour measurements at GRUAN sites. This approach can be applied to the study of redundant measurements for other climate variables.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A decreasing carbon allocation to belowground autotrophic respiration in global forest ecosystems

Belowground autotrophic respiration (RAsoil) depends on carbohydrates from photosynthesis flowing to roots and rhizospheres, and is one of the most important but least understood components in forest carbon cycling. Carbon allocation plays an important role in forest carbon cycling and reflects forest adaptation to changing environmental conditions. However, carbon allocation to RAsoil has not been fully examined at the global scale. To fill this knowledge gap, first, the spatio-temporal patterns of RAsoil from 1981 to 2017 were predicted by a Random Forest (RF) algorithm using the most updated Global Soil Respiration Database (v5) with global environmental variables; second, carbon allocation from photosynthesis to RAsoil (CAB), was calculated as the ratio of RAsoil to gross primary production; and its temporal and spatial patterns were assessed in global forest ecosystems. . Globally, mean RAsoil from forests was 8.9 ± 0.08 Pg C yr-1 (mean ± standard deviation) from 1981 to 2017 with strong spatial variabilities. Temporally, RAsoil increased at a rate of 0.0059 Pg C yr-2, paralleling broader soil respiration changes and indicating increasing carbon respired by roots. Mean CAB was 0.243 ± 0.016 and decreased over time. The temporal trend of CAB varied greatly in space, reflecting uneven responses of CAB to environmental changes. This study is the first attempt to predict global CAB and analyze its temporal and spatial patterns. With the linkage of carbon use efficiency, the developed CAB offers an completely independent approach to quantify global aboveground autotropic respiration spatially and temporally, which could provide crucial insights into carbon flux partition and global carbon cycling under climate change.

Tang, Xiaolu↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nonlinear dynamics of quadratic gravity in spherical symmetry

We present the first numerically stable nonlinear evolution for the leading-order gravitational effective field theory (quadratic gravity) in the spherically-symmetric sector. The formulation relies on (i) the harmonic gauge to cast the evolution system into quasilinear form (ii) the Cartoon method to reduce to spherical symmetry in keeping with the harmonic gauge, and (iii) order reduction to first order (in time) by means of introducing auxiliary variables. The well posedness of the respective initial-value problem is numerically confirmed by evolving randomly perturbed flat-space and black-hole initial data. In conclusion, our study serves as a proof-of-principle for the possibility of stable numerical evolution in the presence of higher derivatives.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Proposal of a Nomogram for Predicting Survival in Patients with Siewert Type II Adenocarcinoma of the Esophagogastric Junction After Preoperative Radiation

Background: Preoperative radiotherapy tends to be more frequently used for patients with adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (AEG); however, the prognostic values of postoperative pathologic characteristics in these patients remain unclear. This study aimed to examine the outcomes in Siewert type II AEG patients receiving preoperative radiotherapy to identify the predictive factors for overall survival (OS). Methods and Results: A total of 1818 AEG patients undergoing preoperative radiotherapy were reviewed. Univariate analyses showed that age, sex, histology, tumor grade, positive lymph node (PLN), lymph node ratio, and log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) were significantly correlated with OS; however, only age, grade, PLN, and LODDS were identified as independent risk factors in a multivariate regression model. Subsequently, patients were randomly grouped into training and validation cohorts (1:1 ratio), and the beta coefficients of these variables in the training set were used to generate the nomogram. The composite nomogram showed improved prognostic accuracy in the training, validation, and entire cohorts compared with that of TNM stage alone. Conclusions: In conclusion, our proposed nomogram represents a promising tool for estimating OS in Siewert type II AEG patients after preoperative radiotherapy.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparing Calibration Algorithms for the Rapid Characterization of Pretreated Corn Stover Using Near-Infrared Spectroscopy

Rapid characterization of biomass composition is a key enabling technology for biorefineries—the ability to measure the chemical composition of biomass materials entering the biorefinery as well as the composition of key process intermediate streams would allow real-time process control and the development of robust models to predict process performance. The utility of near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy for rapid characterization requires multivariate algorithms for building calibration models. The most prevalent algorithm used for building calibration models using NIR spectra is the linear modeling algorithm Partial Least Squares Regression (PLS). Nonlinear regression algorithms (which are typically more computationally intensive than linear modeling approaches) have gained popularity in recent years due to their ability to solve a wide variety of classification and regression problems and the dramatic increase in available computational resources. In this work, we demonstrate that a calibration model can predict the composition of corn stover process intermediate samples pretreated with three different treatments—hot water (HW), dilute acid (DA), and deacetylation followed by dilute acid (DDA). We quantitatively compare three different algorithms for building prediction models based on near-infrared spectroscopy—partial least squares (PLS), support vector machines (SVM), and random forests (RF). We demonstrate the utility of improving model performance by accounting for instrument performance variability using repeated measurements of standard materials (e.g., the “repeatability file” strategy) and investigate its performance with nonlinear regression techniques, and we discuss methods for quantifying the uncertainties of specific predictions among the three methods.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS1972

Effects of atmospheric irregularities on sonic-boom propagation.

A review is given of information obtained in recent years concerning the effects on sonic-boom signatures of departures of the atmosphere from a perfectly stratified time invariant model. These effects include the observed random variations in boom overpressures from those expected for a stratified atmosphere, the anomalously large and variable rise times, and the occurrence of spiked or rounded waveforms rather than the characteristic N waves. The extent of the variability in data recorded during actual flight tests is summarized in the form of histograms, representing experimentally obtained probability density functions. The physical mechanisms believed to be responsible for the variations and the anomalous features in the signatures are described. These include refraction and subsequent wavefront rippling by turbulence, the possible focusing or defocusing of rays, the formation of caustics, and the phenomenon of wavefront folding, diffraction, and scattering. Recent statistical theories of shock propagation through a turbulent atmosphere proposed by Crow, George and Plotkin, Pierce, Horning, and others are reviewed.

Pierce, A. D.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Use of LANDSAT images of vegetation cover to estimate effective hydraulic properties of soils

The estimation of the spatially variable surface moisture and heat fluxes of natural, semivegetated landscapes is difficult due to the highly random nature of the vegetation (e.g., plant species, density, and stress) and the soil (e.g., moisture content, and soil hydraulic conductivity). The solution to that problem lies, in part, in the use of satellite remotely sensed data, and in the preparation of those data in terms of the physical properties of the plant and soil. The work was focused on the development and testing of a stochastic geometric canopy-soil reflectance model, which can be applied to the physically-based interpretation of LANDSAT images. The model conceptualizes the landscape as a stochastic surface with bulk plant and soil reflective properties. The model is particularly suited for regional scale investigations where the quantification of the bulk landscape properties, such as fractional vegetation cover, is important on a pixel by pixel basis. A summary of the theoretical analysis and the preliminary testing of the model with actual aerial radiometric data is provided.

Eagleson, Peter S.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Using a Genetic Algorithm to Model Broadband Regional Waveforms for Crustal Structure in the Western United States

In this study, we analyze regional seismograms to obtain the crustal structure in the eastern Great Basin and western Colorado plateau. Adopting a for- ward-modeling approach, we develop a genetic algorithm (GA) based parameter search technique to constrain the one-dimensional crustal structure in these regions. The data are broadband three-component seismograms recorded at the 1994-95 IRIS PASSCAL Colorado Plateau to Great Basin experiment (CPGB) stations and supplemented by data from U.S. National Seismic Network (USNSN) stations in Utah and Nevada. We use the southwestern Wyoming mine collapse event (M(sub b) = 5.2) that occurred on 3 February 1995 as the seismic source. We model the regional seismograms using a four-layer crustal model with constant layer parameters. Timing of teleseismic receiver functions at CPGB stations are added as an additional constraint in the modeling. GA allows us to efficiently search the model space. A carefully chosen fitness function and a windowing scheme are added to the algorithm to prevent search stagnation. The technique is tested with synthetic data, both with and without random Gaussian noise added to it. Several separate model searches are carried out to estimate the variability of the model parameters. The average Colorado plateau crustal structure is characterized by a 40-km-thick crust with velocity increases at depths of about 10 and 25 km and a fast lower crust while the Great Basin has approximately 35- km-thick crust and a 2.9-km-thick sedimentary layer.

Bhattacharyya, Joydeep↗