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DOE OSTI2021

A novel random forest approach to revealing interactions and controls on chlorophyll concentration and bacterial communities during coastal phytoplankton blooms

Abstract Increasing occurrence of harmful algal blooms across the land–water interface poses significant risks to coastal ecosystem structure and human health. Defining significant drivers and their interactive impacts on blooms allows for more effective analysis and identification of specific conditions supporting phytoplankton growth. A novel iterative Random Forests (iRF) machine-learning model was developed and applied to two example cases along the California coast to identify key stable interactions: (1) phytoplankton abundance in response to various drivers due to coastal conditions and land-sea nutrient fluxes, (2) microbial community structure during algal blooms. In Example 1, watershed derived nutrients were identified as the least significant interacting variable associated with Monterey Bay phytoplankton abundance. In Example 2, through iRF analysis of field-based 16S OTU bacterial community and algae datasets, we independently found stable interactions of prokaryote abundance patterns associated with phytoplankton abundance that have been previously identified in laboratory-based studies. Our study represents the first iRF application to marine algal blooms that helps to identify ocean, microbial, and terrestrial conditions that are considered dominant causal factors on bloom dynamics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

National serosurvey and risk mapping reveal widespread distribution of Coxiella burnetii in Kenya

Coxiella burnetii, the causative agent of Q fever, is an emerging pathogen that has the potential to cause severe chronic infections in animals and humans worldwide. The detrimental impact on public health is projected to be higher in the low- and middle-income countries given their lower capacity to sustain effective surveillance and response measures. We implemented a national serosurvey of cattle in Kenya to map the spatial distribution of the pathogen. The study used serum samples that were collected from randomly selected cattle in different ago-ecological zones across the country. These samples were screened for the pathogen using PrioCHECK Ruminant Q Fever AB Plate ELISA kit. The laboratory findings were analyzed using INLA package to identify risk factors for C. burnetii exposure from herd- and animal-level factors, area, and bioclimatic datasets accessed from online databases. A total of 6,593 cattle were recruited for the study; of these, 7.9% (95% CI; 7.2–8.5) were seropositive. Outputs from the multivariable analysis revealed that the animal age and some of the geographical variables including wind speed, area under shrubs and “petric calcisols” type of soil were significantly associated with C. burnetii seropositivity. Being a calf, weaner or subadult was associated with lower odds of exposure compared to being an adult by 0.24 (credibility interval: 2.5% and 97.5%), 0.41 (0.30–0.55) and 0.51 (0.38–0.69), respectively. In addition, a unit increase in the wind speed increased the odds of C. burnetii seropositivity by 1.27 (1.05–1.52) while an increase on the land area under shrubs was associated with lower odds of exposure (0.67 [0.47–0.69]). The effect of petric calcisols was non-linear; an increase of the land area with this soil type was associated with an exponential increase in C. burnetii seropositivity. This study provides new data on C. burnetii seroprevalence, information of its risk factors and a prevalence map that can be used for C. burnetii risk surveillance and control. The identification of environmental risk factors for C. burnetii exposure, and the increasing awareness of the zoonotic potential of the pathogen, calls for the need to enhance the existing collaborations for the surveillance and control of C. burnetii in line with the One Health framework. The evidence generated on the potential role of environmental factors can also be used to design nature-based interventions, such as replacement of vegetation in denuded areas, to reduce potential for the aerosolization of the pathogen. Livestock vaccination in the hotspots would also reduce animal infections and hence the contamination of the environment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Near-field-driven radiative thermal dynamics in aperiodic photonic nanostructures

Harnessing structural correlations in near-field plasmonic and polaritonic systems hold untapped potential for controlling light–matter interactions at the nanoscale. By tuning these correlations, one can reshape mode localization, coupling, and spectral distribution which are properties central to manipulating energy transport and field enhancement in nanophotonic platforms. We exploit Vogel spirals, an aperiodic geometry where a single parameter dictates spatial correlations, to show how correlation strength reshapes the modal spectrum and transient dynamics of near-field coupling. As a proof of concept, we demonstrate that aperiodic configurations outperform both uncorrelated (random) and periodic arrays in controlling near-field radiative heat-transfer dynamics. These results establish deterministic aperiodic order as a powerful platform for tailoring correlated electromagnetic responses in next-generation nanophotonic devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1972

Bounded state space

This investigation is divided functionally into three different areas: (1) study of bounded state space, (2) nonlinear smoothing theory, and (3) system identification. (1) Study of bounded state space: necessary and sufficient conditions for an optimal control are obtained for a bounded state space optimal control problem. The difficulty of determining the so-called jump conditions is eliminated; however, the problem of determining the points where the response either enters or leaves the boundary still remains unsolved. (2) Nonlinear smoothing theory: nonlinear fixed-interval, fixed-point and fixed-lag smoothing of a random signal generated by a stochastic differential equation are investigated. Results on the asymptotic stability of a linear constant-parameter fixed-interval smoothing filter are obtained. (3) System identification: a particular stochastic modelling problem is solved. An Ito stochastic integral equation is used to mathematically model a black box having multiple inputs and multiple outputs. A new method for identifying system parameters is presented.

Eyman, E. D.↗

NASA NTRS1971

Fatigue failure of materials under narrow band random vibrations. I.

A novel approach for the study of fatigue failure of materials under the multifactor influence of narrow band random vibrations is developed. The approach involves the conduction of an experiment in conjunction with various statistical techniques. Three factors including two statistical properties of the excitation or response are considered and varied simultaneously. A minimum of 6 tests for 3 variables is possible for a fractional f actorial design. The four coefficients of the predicting equation can be independently estimated. A look at 3 predicting equations shows the predominant effect of the root mean square stress of the first order equation.

Huang, T. C.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Random vibrations of quadratic damping systems

An oscillating system with quadratic damping subjected to white noise excitation is replaced by a nonlinear, statistically equivalent system for which the associated Fokker-Planck equation can be exactly solved. The mean square responses are calculated and the optimum damping coefficient is determined with respect to the minimum mean square acceleration criteria. An application of these results to the optimization of automobile suspension damping is given.

Sireteanu, T.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Study of rotor gust response by means of the local momentum theory

The vertical gust response of the helicopter rotor in cruising flight is studied analytically by means of the local momentum theory (LMT) and experimentally in a wind tunnel utilizing a gust generator. By introducing the unsteady aerodynamic effects into the LMT and by considering the elastic deformation of the rotor blade, the vibratory characteristics of flapping blades and of the rotor forces can be obtained. Since the LMT makes it possible to calculate the instantaneous load distribution along the rotor blade in desired azimuthal or timewise intervals, the effects of gradual penetration of the rotor into the gust can be studied and the Fourier analysis or power spectrum analysis of the rotor response applied to any kind of gust input. Some results obtained analytically are verified by the experimental tests performed in the wind tunnel which generates step, sinusoidal and random vertical gusts by the motion of a series of cascaded vanes upstream of the rotor.

Azuma, A.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Probabilistic structural analysis to quantify uncertainties associated with turbopump blades

A probabilistic study of turbopump blades has been in progress at NASA Lewis Research Center for over the last two years. The objectives of this study are to evaluate the effects of uncertainties in geometry and material properties on the structural response of the turbopump blades to evaluate the tolerance limits on the design. A methodology based on probabilistic approach has been developed to quantify the effects of the random uncertainties. The results of this study indicate that only the variations in geometry have significant effects.

Nagpal, Vinod K.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Robust vector quantization for noisy channels

The paper briefly discusses techniques for making vector quantizers more tolerant to tranmsission errors. Two algorithms are presented for obtaining an efficient binary word assignment to the vector quantizer codewords without increasing the transmission rate. It is shown that about 4.5 dB gain over random assignment can be achieved with these algorithms. It is also proposed to reduce the effects of error propagation in vector-predictive quantizers by appropriately constraining the response of the predictive loop. The constrained system is shown to have about 4 dB of SNR gain over an unconstrained system in a noisy channel, with a small loss of clean-channel performance.

Demarca, J. R. B.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Experimentally Validated Computational Modeling of Creep and Creep-Cracking for Nuclear Concrete Structures

In a Nuclear Power Plant, one of the most important components is the concrete nuclear reactor cavity, which serves both a structural and protective function as the biological radiation shield. Given that creep has been identified as a major knowledge gap in the assessment of nuclear structures (NUREG/CR-7153), this work helps to further the understanding of creep behavior of massive concrete containment structures for decades to enable safe and long-term operation of these facilities. This project has developed a robust, experimentally validated model to predict creep in nuclear concrete structures for up 60 years using short-term creep data thereby enabling a longer service life of critical facilities and early detection of structural failure. The work presented in this report is a pairing of computational and experimental methods. For the first time, the time temperature superposition (TTS) principle was successfully used to generate a uniaxial creep compliance master curve to predict mortar creep response for up to 22,500 days (nearly 60 years) at a reference temperature of 20°C. These data were used as input into finite element analysis (FEA) codes that use highly realistic random, 3D concrete microstructures from reconstructed coarse limestone aggregates. Finite element analysis performed provides the ability to quickly upscale mortar viscoelastic behavior to long-term concrete creep/relaxation data. A master creep compliance curve, constructed from the TTS principle, spanning 27 years, was used to validate two and a half decades of simulated concrete creep. Concurrently, three different simulated wall specimens were designed to mimic the behavior of post-tensioned concrete nuclear containment facility vessel walls over time as a result of concrete creep. The specimens were designed with different thicknesses, transverse and longitudinal reinforcement ratios, and level of post-tensioning stress. Each specimen contained various instrumentation to measure internal concrete temperature, concrete strain, and post-tensioning strain hourly for over 3 years. The concrete creep model developed in this project, based on the FEA concrete simulations, was applied to simulate the structural-scale experiments of prestressed concrete walls conducted in this project using the Grizzly code. These models can represent the effects of reinforcing and prestressing. Although there are some discrepancies with the experimental data, the model can predict the overall trends of the creep response in these experiments. One of these experimental models was also applied to an extended time to demonstrate how the findings from this study can be used to predict the behavior of actual structures of interest that have been in service for extended periods of time.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Conformation dependent electronic transport in a DNA double-helix

We present a tight-binding study of conformation dependent electronic transport properties of DNA double-helix including its helical symmetry. We have studied the changes in the localization properties of DNA as we alter the number of stacked bases within every pitch of the double-helix keeping fixed the total number of nitrogen bases within the DNA molecule. We take three DNA sequences, two of them are periodic and one is random and observe that in all the cases localization length increases as we increase the radius of DNA double-helix i.e., number of nucleobases within a pitch. We have also investigated the effect of backbone energetic on the I-V response of the system and found that in presence of helical symmetry, depending on the interplay of conformal variation and disorder, DNA can be found in either metallic, semiconducting and insulating phases, as observed experimentally.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Proactive and Reactive Thermal Comfort Behaviors

The expansion of renewable electricity generation, growing demands due to electrification, greater prevalence of working from home, and increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events, will place new demands on the electric supply and distribution grid. Broader adoption of demand response programs (DRPs) for the residential sector may help meet these challenges; however, experience shows that occupant overrides in DRPs compromises their effectiveness. There is a lack of formal understanding of how discomfort, routines, and other motivations affect DRP overrides and other related human building interactions (HBI). This paper reports preliminary findings from a study of 20 households in Colorado and Massachusetts, US over three months. Participants responded to ecological momentary assessments (EMA) triggered by thermostat interactions and at random times throughout the day. EMAs included Likert-scale questions of thermal preference, preference intensity, and changes to 7 different activity types that could affect thermal comfort, and an opened ended question about motivations of such actions. Twelve tags were developed to categorize motivation responses and analyzed statistically to identify associations between motivations, preferences, and HBI actions. Reactions to changes in the thermal environment were the most frequently observed motivation (118 of 220 responses). On the other hand, almost half (47%) responses were at least partially motivated by non-thermal factors, suggesting limited utility for occupant behavior models founded solely on thermal comfort. Changes in activity level and clothing were less likely to be reported when EMAs were triggered by thermostat interactions, while fan interactions were more likely. Windows, shades, and portable heater interactions had no significant dependence on how the EMA was triggered. These results suggest that better understanding of motivations for HBI may improve effectiveness of demand response programs.

Pathak, Maharshi↗

DOE OSTI2024

Field experiments show no consistent reductions in soil microbial carbon in response to warming

Soil microbes play an essential role in maintaining soil functions and services, but the dynamics of soil microbial biomass carbon (MBC) under global climate change remain unclear. Recently, Patoine et al. combined a global MBC data set with Random Forest modeling and reported that global MBC decreased over 1992–2013, mainly driven by increasing temperatures. Contrarily, using MBC field observations from soil warming manipulation experiments and in-situ long-term measurements across the globe, we found that MBC showed no significant changes under soil warming. Our findings indicate that soil MBC is unlikely to have decreased significantly due to the global warming of 0.28 °C during 1992–2013, and that further mechanistic studies are needed to understand potential changes in MBC under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mechanical Behavior of Additively Manufactured Molybdenum and Fabrication of Microtextured Composites

Refractory metals are a class of high-melting-temperature materials suitable for use in extreme environment applications. Interestingly, during additive manufacturing many pure refractory metals exhibit a switch from (001) to (111) build direction fiber preference with increasing surface energy density. Here we exploit this solidification physics to fabricate material with “mesoscale composite” engineered structures consisting of features with contrasting (001) and (111) build direction microtextures. Separately, elevated temperature tensile testing of EBM fabricated material with a randomized distribution of mixed (001)/(111)-fiber grains is shown to exhibit excellent properties. These results are utilized to build a crystal plasticity model for evaluating the local inelastic response of the composite mesoscale structures. Analysis of printed microstructures and microstructure-scale simulations indicate that both macro-scale and localized material behavior may be tailored. This strategy can be potentially used to synthesize materials with optimized performance for high-temperature applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Meso-scale modelling of compressive fracture in concrete with irregularly shaped aggregates

This paper presents a meso-scale modelling framework to investigate the fracture process in concrete subjected to uniaxial and biaxial compression accounting for its mesostructural characteristics. 3D mesostructure of concrete consisting of coarse aggregates, mortar and interfacial transition zone between them was developed using an in-house code based on the Voronoi tessellation and splining method, which enables to generate the realistic-look aggregates with controllable structural features such as content, location, size and shape. Based on the generated 3D mesostructure, the concrete damage plasticity approach was employed to simulate the compressive fracture behaviour of concrete in terms of crack morphology and stress-strain response against the shape parameters of aggregate. Results indicate that the shape of aggregate has a negligible effect on compressive strength of concrete, which is highly associated with the random location and size distribution of aggregate. The aggregate irregularity has a significant influence on crack initiation and growth of concrete.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Creep anisotropy modeling and uncertainty quantification of an additively manufactured Ni-based superalloy

The advantages offered by additive manufacturing over traditional processes has driven a great deal of industrial and academic interest in recent years. However, the process is relatively new and requires additional investigation to become sufficiently mature for wide scale industrial adoption. Electron beam melting powder bed fusion is one technology that has shown promise for fabricating high temperature resistant materials such as nickel based superalloys. The resulting microstructures typically exhibit a strong fiber texture in the build direction giving rise to anisotropic time-dependent deformation behavior. In order to accelerate the qualification of these materials for industrial adoption accurate numerical models are needed for simulating their behavior. In this work a crystal plasticity model including non-Schmid effects is presented for capturing creep anisotropy observed in additively manufactured IN738LC. The model is calibrated via a probabilistic framework where model parameters are treated as random variables. An iterative sequential design strategy is utilized to efficiently identify the probability density of the unknown model parameters. As a case study the model is utilized to investigate the behavior of randomly oriented equiaxed grain clusters sometimes observed embedded in the additively manufactured columnar structure. A synthetic realization is simulated and uncertainty is propagated through to the full-field response. Results indicate that these features are the source of significant creep relaxation and strain accumulation which partially explains observed grain boundary decohesion at these locations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2017

Stochastic Analysis of Levee Stability Subject to Variable Seepage Conditions

© ASCE. Levee stability is highly influenced by seepage. Specifically, hydraulic conductivity distribution within a levee influences pore pressure distribution and controls the drained strength of the soil. In this study the influence of hydraulic conductivity and blanket layer thickness on failure probability is evaluated within the context of reliability analyses that also include soil strength and unit weight as random variables. First-Order Reliability Method (FORM) is used to evaluate reliability, rank random variables by importance and to obtain sensitivity of the solution to each random variable and its distribution parameters. Stability is computed using Spencer's method of slices coupled to a finite element seepage code to directly evaluate pore pressure. In addition, response surface method solutions are compared to the direct reliability solution to assess response surface accuracy. The results show that blanket layer thickness is more important than most strength parameters and that the uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity is less important to the variance in safety factor for the case of a low-permeability blanket layer. Numerical challenges caused by implementing a finite element limit-state function are discussed. Response surface methods are found to give a reasonable approximation to the direct reliability solution when the design point is between response surface fitting points.

Lanzafame, Robert↗

DOE OSTI2019

Physiological impact of nanoporous acupuncture needles: Laser Doppler perfusion imaging in healthy volunteers

Recently, porous acupuncture (PA), which is anodized to increase its surface area for higher stimulation intensity, was developed and showed significantly improved therapeutic effects with more comfort as compared with original acupuncture (OA) in vivo. However, the impact of PA on the change of local blood flow as well as its efficacy and acceptability has not yet been confirmed in a clinical trial. In a randomized, controlled crossover clinical trial, we investigated the effects of PA on the change in local blood flow using laser Doppler perfusion imaging and considered the sensation of pain intensity and discomfort severity using a visual analogue scale (VAS) to explore its physiological impact and the possibility of PA in clinical use. Twenty-one healthy participants were randomly treated with PA or OA on one side of Zusanli (ST36) and each participant served as his or her own control. Baseline local blood flow and galvanic skin response (GSR) were obtained for 5 min and acupuncture interventions were subsequently performed. Next, local blood flow and GSR were subsequently obtained for 10 min after insertion, 10 min after manipulation, and 5 min after the withdrawal of acupuncture. At the end of the experiment, participants were asked to indicate the sensation of pain intensity at each session of insertion, retention, manipulation, and withdrawal as well as the overall pain intensity and discomfort severity. PA significantly increased the local blood flow as compared with OA and there was no significant difference in GSR between patients treated with PA versus OA in each phase of insertion and manipulation. No significant difference in pain intensity or discomfort severity was found during manipulation, retention, or withdrawal of acupuncture. These results indicate that PA increases local blood flow, which can be closely related to the observed enhanced performance, without any associated discomfort or pain, suggesting its applicability in clinical practice.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗