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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 937 records · Page 52
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Current measurements in the intermittent-contact mode of atomic force microscopy using the Fourier method: a feasibility analysis

Atomic force microscopy (AFM) is an important tool for measuring a variety of nanoscale surface properties, such as topography, viscoelasticity, electrical potential and conductivity. Some of these properties are measured using contact methods (static contact or intermittent contact), while others are measured using noncontact methods. Some properties can be measured using different approaches. Conductivity, in particular, is mapped using the contact-mode method. However, this modality can be destructive to delicate samples, since it involves continuously dragging the cantilever tip on the surface during the raster scan, while a constant tip–sample force is applied. In this paper we discuss a possible approach to develop an intermittent-contact conductive AFM mode based on Fourier analysis, whereby the measured current response consists of higher harmonics of the cantilever oscillation frequency. Such an approach may enable the characterization of soft samples with less damage than contact-mode imaging. To explore its feasibility, we derive the analytical form of the tip–sample current that would be obtained for attractive (noncontact) and repulsive (intermittent-contact) dynamic AFM characterization, and compare it with results obtained from numerical simulations. Although significant instrumentation challenges are anticipated, the modelling results are promising and suggest that Fourier-based higher-harmonics current measurement may enable the development of a reliable intermittent-contact conductive AFM method.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A spatial-statistical investigation of surface expressions associated with cyclic steaming in the Midway-Sunset Oil Field, California

In the Midway Sunset Oil Field in Central California, operators inject steam into the shallow diatomite formation to enhance heavy oil recovery through imbibition, wettability alteration, and viscosity reduction, among other mechanisms. The injected steam, however, does not always remain in the reservoir or return through the wells. In two zones in the study area, the steam comes out at the surface, creating sinkholes, seeps, and steam outlets. These phenomena, called “surface expressions,” pose safety and environmental hazards. Even though these surface expressions are a widespread problem in Central California, they are not well documented and understood. Possible causes of the surface expressions include: high injection pressure, structurally controlled flow patterns, leakage of steam through old improperly abandoned wells, high injection volumes, or flow along naturally occurring faults, among other possible factors. This work examines attributes of the zones with surface expressions in order to determine factors that may contribute to their occurrence. Spatial statistical analysis using logistic regression, random forests, and classification trees is used to explore the relationship between the surface expressions and geological and production-related attributes. The results point to a significant spatial correlation between the surface expressions and two predictors: concentration of plugged wells and geologic seal thickness. The results guide follow-up studies to further investigate the role of well abandonment and seal thickness in the occurrence of surface expressions.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2022

Properties of the neutron star crust: Quantifying and correlating uncertainties with improved nuclear physics

A compressible liquid-drop model (CLDM) is used to correlate uncertainties associated with the properties of the neutron star (NS) crust with theoretical estimates of the uncertainties associated with the equation of state (EOS) of homogeneous neutron and nuclear matter. For the latter, we employ recent calculations based on Hamiltonians constructed using chiral effective-field theory (χEFT). Fits to experimental nuclear masses are employed to constrain the CLDM further, and we find that they disfavor some of the χEFT Hamiltonians. The CLDM allows us to study the complex interplay between bulk, surface, curvature, and Coulomb contributions, and their impact on the NS crust. It also reveals how the curvature energy alters the correlation between the surface energy and the bulk symmetry energy. Here our analysis quantifies how the uncertainties associated with the EOS of homogeneous matter implies significant uncertainties for the composition of the crust, its proton fraction, and the volume fraction occupied by nuclei. We find that the finite-size effects impact the crust composition but have a negligible effect on the net isospin asymmetry of matter. The isospin asymmetry is largely determined by the bulk properties and the isospin dependence of the surface energy. The most significant uncertainties associated with matter properties in the densest regions of the crust, the precise location of the crust-core transition, are found to be strongly correlated with uncertainties associated with the Hamiltonians. By adopting a unified model to describe the crust and the core of NSs, we tighten the correlation between their global properties such as their mass-radius relationship, moment of inertia, crust thickness, and tidal deformability with uncertainties associated with the nuclear Hamiltonians.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

XPS analysis of molecular contamination and sp 2 amorphous carbon on oxidized (100) diamond

The efficacy of oxygen (O) surface terminations on diamond is an important factor for the performance and stability for diamond-based quantum sensors and electronics. Given the wide breadth of O-termination techniques, it can be difficult to discern which method would yield the highest and most consistent O coverage. Furthermore, the interpretation of surface characterization techniques is complicated by surface morphology and purity, which if not accounted for will yield inconsistent determination of the oxygen coverage. We present a comprehensive approach to consistently prepare and analyze oxygen termination of surfaces on (100) single-crystalline diamond. We report on x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) characterization of diamond surfaces treated with six oxidation methods that include various wet chemical oxidation techniques, photochemical oxidation with UV illumination, and steam oxidation using atomic layer deposition (ALD). Our analysis entails a rigorous XPS peak-fitting procedure for measuring the functionalization of O-terminated diamond. The findings herein have provided molecular-level insights on oxidized surfaces in (100) diamond, including the demonstration of clear correlation between the measured oxygen atomic percentage and the presence of molecular contaminants containing nitrogen, silicon, and sulfur. We also provide a comparison of the sp 2 carbon content with the O1s atomic percentage and discern a correlation with the diamond samples treated with dry oxidation which eventually tapers off at a max O1s atomic percentage value of 7.09 ± 0.40%. Given these results, we conclude that the dry oxidation methods yield some of the highest oxygen amounts, with the ALD water vapor technique proving to be the cleanest technique out of all the oxidation methods explored in this work.

XPS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Chemical and Electrochemical Characterization of Hot–Pressed Li 6 PS 5 Cl Solid State Electrolyte: Operating Pressure–Invariant High Ionic Conductivity

Sulfide solid state electrolytes (SSE) are among the most promising materials in the effort to replace liquid electrolytes, largely due to their comparable ionic conductivities. Among the sulfide SSEs, Argyrodites (Li 6 PS 5 X, X=Cl, Br, I) further stand out due to their high theoretical ionic conductivity (~1×10 –2 S cm –1 ) and interfacial stability against reactive metal anodes such as lithium. Generally, solid state electrolyte pellets are pressed from powder feedstock at room temperature, however, pellets fabricated by cold pressing consistently result in low bulk density and high porosity, facilitating interfacial degradation reactions and allowing dendrites to propagate through the pores and grain boundaries. Here, we demonstrate the mechanical and electrochemical implications of hot-pressing standalone LPSCl SSE pellets with near-theoretical ionic conductivity, superior cycling performance, and enhanced mechanical stability. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and x-ray diffraction spectroscopy (XRD) analysis reveal no chemical changes to the Argyrodite surface after hot pressing up to 250°C. Furthermore, we use electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) to understand mechanical stability of Argyrodite SSE pellets as a function of externally applied pressure, demonstrating for the first time pressed standalone Argyrodite pellets with near-theoretical conductivities at external pressures below 14 MPa.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Influence of Y-Rich Compounds on High-Cycle Fatigue Performance of Y-Doped M951 Superalloy

The performance of Y-doped M951 superalloy under high-cycle fatigue was investigated experimentally to determine the effect of Y-rich compounds on this behavior. The selected testing temperatures were 700 and 900 °C, and the stress ratio was R = 0.1. The fatigue life was shown to decrease as the stress amplitude increased, according to a typical Whöler S-N diagram. Two types of crack initiation sites were observed on the fractured surfaces: microshrinkage clusters and Y-rich compounds. Analysis by TEM indicated that the Y-rich compounds consisted of Al{sub 2}Ni{sub 6}Y{sub 3} particles with BCC structure and Ni{sub 5}Y particles with hexagonal structure. Cracks had initiated and propagated along the interface between Al{sub 2}Ni{sub 6}Y{sub 3} phase and the matrix. These Y-rich compounds varied considerably in size, from 1 to 769 μm, and the large-size Y-rich compounds were shown to be the preferred site for fatigue crack origin. The ability of Y in the removal of sulfur was considered. And the small-size Y-S product from the reaction between Y and S was shown to exhibit no deleterious effect on the fatigue property of the M951 Ni-based superalloy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Spatially resolved degradation during startup and shutdown in polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell operation

Polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells have durability limitations associated with the startup and shutdown of the fuel cell, which is critical for real-world vehicle commercialization. During startup or shutdown, there exists an active region (hydrogen/air) and a passive region (air/air) between the cell inlet and outlet. Internal currents are generated in the passive region causing high-potential excursion in the cathode leading to accelerated carbon corrosion. In this study, a segmented cathode hardware is used to evaluate the effect of platinum loading on both cathode and anode, and carbon support material on degradation due to repeated series of startups or shutdowns. Here, in situ losses in the performance and electrochemical surface area were measured spatially, and ex situ analysis of the catalyst layer thickness and platinum particle size was performed to understand the effect of startup or shutdown on different membrane electrode assembly materials. Startup degrades the region near anode outlet more, while shutdown degrades the region near anode inlet more compared to the rest of the electrode. While various system mitigation strategies have been reported in the literature to limit this degradation, one materials mitigation strategy is to limit the anode's ability to reduce oxygen to water through increasing the ratio of platinum loading in the cathode to the anode, or by using a bi-functional catalyst.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Physical and chemical effects of isopropanol exchange in cement-based materials

Drying cement-based materials is a necessary step to characterize the microstructure by microscopy, adsorption, or mercury intrusion. The isopropanol (IPA) exchange method is commonly used to replace the pore solution prior to drying, as it reduces the capillary pressure and thereby helps to preserve the microstructure of the hydrated cementitious materials. However, some physical and chemical effects of IPA on hydration products have been reported. These effects cannot be completely avoided, but can be reduced by shortening the exchange duration, in particular for effects on ettringite. This study carried out experiments with different exchange durations and IPA removal techniques to address research gaps in the literature. For 1-mm cubes of cement paste with IPA diffusion coefficient of 1 × 10{sup −11} m{sup 2}/s, the compared exchange durations are 5 min, 15 min (value from the literature), 40 min (when the mixture at the sample center achieves 95% of the drop in surface tension from water to IPA), 80 min (when the IPA/water mixture at the sample center reaches an azeotrope), 5 h (when over 99% IPA is replaced at the sample center), and 24 h (prolonged exchange). After IPA exchange, samples were either directly dried at 40 °C with flushing N{sub 2} or washed by diethyl ether prior to N{sub 2} drying. Even though the exchange duration of 40 and 80 min, in theory, can reduce the damage from capillary pressure, the nitrogen adsorption results do not show any advantage in preventing microstructural alteration. The 5-h exchange provided results similar to the 24-h exchange, but the latter induced slightly more serious chemical effects resulting from the longer contact of IPA with hydration products. In addition, the compared IPA removal techniques do not show significant differences. Therefore, this study suggests using small samples (~1 mm) for microstructural studies following IPA exchange for a period corresponding to the time when 99% of the water (mole fraction) at the sample center is replaced.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimal sensor placement for reconstructing wind pressure field around buildings using compressed sensing

Deciding how to optimally deploy sensors in a large, complex, and spatially extended structure is critical to ensure that the surface pressure field is accurately captured for subsequent analysis and design. In some cases, reconstruction of missing data is required in downstream tasks such as the development of digital twins. Here, this paper presents a data-driven sparse sensor selection algorithm, aiming to provide the most information contents for reconstructing aerodynamic characteristics of wind pressures over tall building structures parsimoniously. The algorithm first fits a set of basis functions to the training data, then applies a computationally efficient QR algorithm that ranks existing pressure sensors in order of importance based on the state reconstruction to this tailored basis. The findings of this study show that the proposed algorithm successfully re- constructs the aerodynamic characteristics of tall buildings from sparse measurement locations, generating stable and optimal solutions across a range of conditions. As a result, this study serves as a promising first step toward leveraging the success of data-driven and machine learning algorithms to supplement traditional genetic algorithms currently used in wind engineering.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Portable Distortion Free Large Solid Angle Coverage Detector

Neutron single crystal diffractometers require large solid angle coverage for optimum performance. This can be achieved by tiling flat detectors in a cylindrical or spherical geometry, but results in large gaps in detector coverage and parallax distortion. The detector edges exhibit degraded resolution, distortion, and gamma rejection. Since the detector edge regions are a significant fraction of the detector active area, they must be removed from the experimental data set, requiring extra beam time to collect enough analysis data. A spherical detector with a continuous surface would effectively address this issue while eliminating most boundary ‘dead’ areas. Here we report on the development of a novel hemispherical shaped neutron detector using seamlessly tiled readout modules to form the desired shape. The heart of the detector is a specially developed curved neutron scintillator coupled to high resolution silicon photomultiplier (SiPM) Anger cameras via custom made fiber optic tapers (FOTs). The detector has been assembled and initial tests have been conducted at the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) beamlines at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). Here, in this work, we describe details of the scintillator design, fabrication and characterization, evaluation of individual detector modules, the details of the detector design implementation, and evaluation of the assembled detector at ORNL beamlines.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seismic isolation: A pathway to standardized advanced nuclear reactors

Standardizing advanced nuclear reactors is a pathway to substantially reducing their overnight capital cost and achieving parity with other power sources, including renewables and fossil fuels. The seismic load case has thwarted standardization of nuclear power plants because site-specific seismic hazard and local near-surface geology has triggered soil-structure-interaction analysis, design, equipment qualification, regulatory review, and licensing, ensuring that each build is different. To achieve standardized or site-independent certified advanced reactor designs, the impact of the seismic load case on the engineering and construction cost and time must be substantially mitigated. Seismic isolation is a mature technology that has been used for more than 30 years in non-nuclear sectors to substantially reduce earthquake demands in buildings and other infrastructure. In this paper, seismic isolation is used to enable standardization of advanced reactor designs, aimed at the complete re-use of a site-independent, certified design and repeated procurement of safety-class equipment. A pathway to standardized designs using seismic isolation is demonstrated for two fundamentally different advanced reactors: a molten salt reactor and a high temperature gas reactor. Each reactor building is equipped with three specialized pieces of safety-class equipment, namely, a reactor vessel, a steam generator, and a control rod drive mechanism housing that is attached to the reactor head. Analysis is performed per ASCE and ASME standards to design the buildings and the equipment for two base conditions: conventional (fixed base) and base isolated. The impact of the seismic load case is characterized for the reinforced concrete walls in the buildings and for the equipment, measured using vessel wall thickness and horizontal accelerations. Here the analysis results show that the fixed-base buildings, designed for a site of low seismic hazard (peak ground acceleration, PGA = 0.15 g) could be constructed at a site of much greater seismic hazard (PGA = 0.7 g) if seismic base isolation is employed. Importantly, the scope of the site-specific analysis, design, and qualification would be limited to the seismic isolators and the isolated substructure, drastically reducing plant-specific engineering, review, and licensing, and time to construction start. Regulatory challenges and opportunities with standardized reactor designs are identified.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ocean circulation and climate variability in the northern South China Sea during the Greek Minimum derived from coral Δ 14 C and Sr/Ca records

Ocean circulation transports heat, salt and nutrients, and has profound impacts on the marine environment and climate change. However, the seasonal to centennial variations of the paleocirculation of the South China Sea (SCS) and their driving forces are still unclear due to limited records. Here we reconstructed a high-resolution Δ 14 C record of a coral from Sanya to investigate the seasonal variations of the SCS ocean circulation around 2300 cal yr BP during a grand solar minimum (GSM) period. The seasonal Δ 14 C variability shows the influence of coastal upwelling caused by the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) in summer and the effect of water intrusion from the western Pacific Ocean driven by the Kuroshio Intrusion (KI) in winter. Here we compiled the marine radiocarbon reservoir correction (ΔR) records since 2500 cal yr BP, which indicate a gradual decrease of upwelling significantly correlated with the EASM. Comparisons with other climate records suggest that both the EASM and KI may regulate the ocean circulation variability on centennial time scales. As a good index of the sea surface temperature (SST), our Sr/Ca record and spectral analysis results show a low temperature and a low frequency of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events around 2300 cal yr BP. Moreover, the composite coral Sr/Ca-SST and ENSO index records since 2500 cal yr BP show relatively low SST and weak ENSO during GSMs, supporting the modulation of tropical SST and ENSO by solar activity. Our study has provided high-resolution proxy data and revealed the driving forces of ocean circulation and climate change in the SCS at multiple time scales, which should be considered in further modeling work.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

NiAl–MoO 2 S 2 Nanoparticles: Structural Evolution and Mechanistic Insights into High-Performance Selenium Oxyanion Removal across Diverse pH Conditions

Advancing sorbent materials for the selective removal of toxic oxyanions from water requires synthetic control, tunable chemistry, and an atomic-level understanding of structure–function relationships. Here, we report the synthesis and detailed characterization of NiAl–MoO 2 S 2 , a novel layered double hydroxide (LDH) nanomaterial designed for the efficient sequestration of selenium oxoanions (SeO 3 2– and SeO 4 2– ) from complex aqueous environments. The material is synthesized through a room-temperature ion-exchange process, wherein interlayer NO 3 – anions in NiAl–LDH are replaced with MoO 2 S 2 2– clusters, forming high-surface-area, flower-like nanoparticles. Comprehensive structural analysis using the synchrotron X-ray pair distribution function, X-ray absorption spectroscopy, and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy reveals a distinct chemical transformation of intercalated [MoO 2 S 2 ] 2– into [Mo 2 O 2 S 6 ] 2– -like clusters, generating redox-active interlayers that drive selenium capture. This tailored interfacial chemistry underpins the material’s exceptional sorption performance, achieving distribution coefficients (K d ) ≥ 10 6 mL/g and maximum capacities of 343 mg/g for SeO 4 2– and 514 mg/g for SeO 3 2– , outperforming state-of-the-art inorganic sorbents. Importantly, NiAl–MoO 2 S 2 maintains high selectivity and capacity across acidic, neutral, and alkaline pH, efficiently removing selenium from ppm to sub-10 ppb trace levels, even in the presence of competing ions typical of natural and industrial waters. The selenium uptake proceeds via reductive precipitation coupled with the oxidation of molybdenum and sulfide within the LDH framework. This study highlights the power of strategic synthetic modification and interlayer functionalization in LDHs to unlock new structural motifs and redox chemistries, offering a scalable route to advanced materials for environmental remediation.

Adsorption↗
DOE OSTI2019

Utilizing Charge Effects and Minimizing Intramolecular Proton Rearrangement to Improve the Overpotential of a Thiosemicarbazonato Zinc HER Catalyst

The zinc(II) complex of diacetyl-2-(4-methyl-3-thiosemicarbazone)-3-(2-hydrazonepyridine), ZnL 1 (1), was prepared and evaluated as a precatalyst for the hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) under homogeneous conditions in acetonitrile. Complex 1 is protonated on the noncoordinating nitrogen of the hydrazonepyridine moiety to yield the active catalyst Zn(HL 1 )OAc (2) upon addition of acetic acid. Addition of methyl iodide to 1 yields the corresponding methylated derivative ZnL 2 I (3). In solution, partial dissociation of the coordinated iodide yields the cationic derivative 3'. Complexes 1–3 were characterized by 1 H NMR, FT-IR, and UV–visible spectroscopies. The solid-state structures of 2 and 3 were determined by single crystal X-ray diffraction. HER studies conducted in acetonitrile with acetic acid as the proton source yield a turnover frequency (TOF) of 7700 s –1 for solutions of 1 at an overpotential of 1.27 V and a TOF of 6700 s –1 for solutions of 3 at an overpotential of 0.56 V. For both complexes, the required potential for catalysis, E cat/2 , is larger than the thermodynamic reduction potential, E 1/2 , indicative of a kinetic barrier attributed to intramolecular proton rearrangement. The effect is larger for solutions of 1 (+440 mV) than for solutions of 3 (+160 mV). Controlled potential coulometry studies were used to determine faradaic efficiencies of 71 and 89% for solutions of 1 and 3, respectively. For both catalysts, extensive cycling of potential under catalytic conditions results in the deposition of a film on the glassy carbon electrode surface that is active as an HER catalyst. Analysis of the film of 3 by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy indicates the complex remains intact upon deposition. A proposed ligand-centered HER mechanism with 1 as a precatalyst to 2 is supported computationally using density functional theory (DFT). All catalytic intermediates in the mechanism were structurally and energetically characterized with the DFT/B3LYP/6-311g(d,p) in solution phase using a polarizable continuum model (PCM). Finally, the thermodynamic feasibility of the mechanism is supported by calculation of equilibrium constants or reduction potentials for each proposed step.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adsorbate-Induced Strong Metal–Support Interactions: Implications for Catalyst Design

Since the discovery of strong metal–support interactions (SMSIs) over supported metal catalysts in the 1970s, researchers have studied ways to harness this type of catalyst reconstruction to achieve enhanced stability of metal particles against sintering and to create catalytic sites with novel electronic and bonding properties. The motivation to elucidate performance–structure relationships in catalytic transformations has led researchers to take a closer look into catalytic surfaces under reaction conditions rather than a postreaction analysis. These investigations of operating catalysts have made it clear that SMSIs are more common than initially thought. Recent reports show how various adsorbed species, rather than traditional H 2 /O 2 treatment, can promote SMSI in various catalytic systems, a phenomenon named adsorbate-induced SMSI (A-SMSI). Researching the occurrence of A-SMSI has allowed fundamental understanding of catalyst stability, catalytic rates, and product selectivity. The present Perspective discusses the state-of-the-art regarding A-SMSI, the current challenges, and the opportunities ahead in heterogeneous catalysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Bifunctional Ionic Liquid for Capture and Electrochemical Conversion of CO 2 to CO over Silver

Electrochemical conversion of CO 2 requires selective catalysts and high solubility of CO 2 in the electrolyte to reduce the energy requirement and increase the current efficiency. In this study, the CO 2 reduction reaction (CO 2 RR) over Ag electrodes in acetonitrile-based electrolytes containing 0.1 M [EMIM][2-CNpyr] (1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium 2-cyanopyrolide), a reactive ionic liquid (IL), is shown to selectively (>94%) convert CO 2 to CO with a stable current density (6 mA·cm –2 ) for at least 12 h. The linear sweep voltammetry experiments show the onset potential of CO 2 reduction in acetonitrile shifts positively by 240 mV when [EMIM][2-CNpyr] is added. This is attributed to the pre-activation of CO 2 through the carboxylate formation via the carbene intermediate of the [EMIM] + cation and the carbamate formation via binding to the nucleophilic [2-CNpyr] – anion. The analysis of the electrode–electrolyte interface by surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) confirms the catalytic role of the functionalized IL where the accumulation of the IL-CO 2 adduct between –1.7 and –2.3 V vs Ag/Ag + and the simultaneous CO formation are captured. Furthermore, this study reveals the electrode surface species and the role of the functionalized ions in lowering the energy requirement of CO 2 RR for the design of multifunctional electrolytes for the integrated capture and conversion.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Anthropogenic Aerosols Contribute to the Recent Decline in Precipitation Over the U.S. Southwest

Abstract The winter‐spring precipitation over the Southwestern United States (SWUS) decreased since 1980. It is frequently attributed to Pacific internal decadal variability, but recent studies found anthropogenic aerosols (AA) can also induce a transition to a negative Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) phase. We revisit the attribution of SWUS drying by quantifying the contributions of anthropogenically forced decadal Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Applying a low‐frequency component analysis to observations, Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) all‐forcings and single‐forcing large ensembles, we find up to 42% of the observed precipitation trend to be related to the AA‐induced negative PDV‐like pattern, which is driven by the emission shift from the Western to the Eastern Hemisphere. In CESM2, other radiative forcings counteract the influence of AA, but it remains unclear whether the model correctly simulates this balance. This implies that the near‐future trajectories of these forcings, in particular Asian aerosols, are important for projections of SWUS precipitation.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Has Reducing Ship Emissions Brought Forward Global Warming?

Abstract Ships brighten low marine clouds from emissions of sulfur and aerosols, resulting in visible “ship tracks”. In 2020, new shipping regulations mandated an ∼80% reduction in the allowed fuel sulfur content. Recent observations indicate that visible ship tracks have decreased. Model simulations indicate that since 2020 shipping regulations have induced a net radiative forcing of +0.12 Wm −2 . Analysis of recent temperature anomalies indicates Northern Hemisphere surface temperature anomalies in 2022–2023 are correlated with observed cloud radiative forcing and the cloud radiative forcing is spatially correlated with the simulated radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping emission changes. Shipping emissions changes could be accelerating global warming. To better constrain these estimates, better access to ship position data and understanding of ship aerosol emissions are needed. Understanding the risks and benefits of emissions reductions and the difficultly in robust attribution highlights the large uncertainty in attributing proposed deliberate climate intervention.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗