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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 955 records · Page 53
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

BATPAC--VERSION 5.0

Argonne National Laboratory has worked on electrochemical energy storage for several decades. The focus on lithium-ion chemistries started in the early 1990s, developing new materials, synthesis methods, and performance characterizations. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicle Technologies Office (DOE-EERE-VTO), Argonne has led with many advances. The experimental activities were complemented with multi-scale modeling that ranged from the atomic to the system (manufacturing processes and automobiles) level. The Battery Performance and Cost (BatPaC) model is a calculation method based on Microsoft¿ Office Excel spreadsheets that have been developed at Argonne for estimating the performance and manufacturing cost of lithium-ion batteries for electric-drive vehicles including hybrid-electrics (HEV), plug-in hybrids (PHEV) and pure electrics. The effort is being funded by the Vehicle Technology Office (VTO), which is part of the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) office of the U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE). BatPaC was first developed in 2007, was subsequently peer-reviewed, and it has served Argonne researchers and the greater battery community in studying the impact of material properties on performance at the pack level. With further developments, the model now allows the design of cells and battery packs for automotive applications, to meet performance requirements (power, energy, recharge time), and estimates the cost of manufacturing the designed batteries. Since the cost depends on the materials he design, and the manufacturing process, this bottom-up model/tool enables the user to study their effects. Designed or the lithium-ion cell and battery researcher, BatPaC helps answer many questions by being 1.Transparent in the assumptions made and the method of calculation 2.Capable of designing a battery specifically for the requirements of an application 3.Constrained by the physical limitations that govern battery performance 4. A bottom-up calculation approach to account for every cost factors. BatPaC predicts the impact of promising materials (and their properties) on the performance metrics relevant for the different applications. Researchers can use the specific capacities and the half-cell voltages of a particular set of electrode materials to calculate the mass and volume of a cell to develop a model incorporating the properties of all the other materials in the cell and the design of the cell enclosure. These calculations not only reveal the impact of an improved material but also enable researchers to calculate the material properties that would be needed to meet the performance criteria of a full battery pack. With this information, researchers can provide he battery industry with realistic expectations that will help it more successfully advance novel battery technologies an Applications.

AHMED, SHABBIR↗
DOE OSTI2016

Magnetic dipole interactions in crystals

The influence of magnetic dipole interactions (MDIs) on the magnetic properties of local-moment Heisenberg spin systems is investigated. A general formulation is presented for calculating the eigenvalues λ and eigenvectors μ ˆ of the MDI tensor of the magnetic dipoles in a line (one dimension, 1D), within a circle (2D) or a sphere (3D) of radius r surrounding a given moment μ → i for given magnetic propagation vectors k for collinear and coplanar noncollinear magnetic structures on both Bravais and non-Bravais spin lattices. Results are calculated for collinear ordering on 1D chains, 2D square and simple-hexagonal (triangular) Bravais lattices, 2D honeycomb and kagomé non-Bravais lattices, and 3D cubic Bravais lattices. The λ and μ ˆ values are compared with previously reported results. Calculations for collinear ordering on 3D simple tetragonal, body-centered tetragonal, and stacked triangular and honeycomb lattices are presented for c/a ratios from 0.5 to 3 in both graphical and tabular form to facilitate comparison of experimentally determined easy axes of ordering on these Bravais lattices with the predictions for MDIs. Comparisons with the easy axes measured for several illustrative collinear antiferromagnets (AFMs) are given. The calculations are extended to the cycloidal noncollinear 120 ° AFM ordering on the triangular lattice where λ is found to be the same as for collinear AFM ordering with the same k. The angular orientation of the ordered moments in the noncollinear coplanar AFM structure of GdB 4 with a distorted stacked 3D Shastry-Sutherland spin-lattice geometry is calculated and found to be in disagreement with experimental observations, indicating the presence of another source of anisotropy. Similar calculations for the undistorted 2D and stacked 3D Shastry-Sutherland lattices are reported. The thermodynamics of dipolar magnets are calculated using the Weiss molecular field theory for quantum spins, including the magnetic transition temperature T m and the ordered moment, magnetic heat capacity, and anisotropic magnetic susceptibility χ versus temperature T . The anisotropic Weiss temperature θ p in the Curie-Weiss law for T>T m is calculated. A quantitative study of the competition between FM and AFM ordering on cubic Bravais lattices versus the demagnetization factor in the absence of FM domain effects is presented. The contributions of Heisenberg exchange interactions and of the MDIs to T m and to θ p are found to be additive, which simplifies analysis of experimental data. Some properties in the magnetically-ordered state versus T are presented, including the ordered moment and magnetic heat capacity and, for AFMs, the dipolar anisotropy of the free energy and the perpendicular critical field. The anisotropic χ for dipolar AFMs is calculated both above and below the Néel temperature T N and the results are illustrated for a simple tetragonal lattice with c/a>1, c/a=1 (cubic), and c/a<1 , where a change in sign of the χ anisotropy is found at c/a=1 . Finally, following the early work of Keffer [Phys. Rev. 87, 608 (1952)], the dipolar anisotropy of χ above T N =69 K of the prototype collinear Heisenberg-exchange-coupled tetragonal compound MnF 2 is calculated and found to be in excellent agreement with experimental single-crystal literature data above 130 K, where the smoothly increasing deviation of the experimental data from the theory on cooling from 130 K to T N is deduced to arise from dynamic short-range collinear c -axis AFM ordering in this temperature range driven by the exchange interactions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Liquefied gas electrolytes for electrochemical energy storage devices

Electrochemical capacitors and lithium-ion batteries have seen little change in their electrolyte chemistry since their commercialization, which has limited improvements in device performance. Combining superior physical and chemical properties and a high dielectric-fluidity factor, the use of electrolytes based on solvent systems that exclusively use components that are typically gaseous under standard conditions show a wide potential window of stability and excellent performance over an extended temperature range. Electrochemical capacitors using difluoromethane show outstanding performance from –78° to +65°C, with an increased operation voltage. The use of fluoromethane shows a high coulombic efficiency of ~97% for cycling lithium metal anodes, together with good cyclability of a 4-volt lithium cobalt oxide cathode and operation as low as –60°C, with excellent capacity retention.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2018

An Investigation into the Effects of Process Conditions on the Tribological Performance of Pack Carburized Titanium with Limited Oxygen Diffusion

In the present study, a new pack carburization technique for titanium has been investigated. The aim of this treatment is to produce a titanium carbide/oxycarbide layer atop of an extended oxygen diffusion zone [α-Ti(O)]. The effects of treatment temperature and pack composition have been investigated in order to determine the optimal conditions required to grant the best tribological response. The resulting structural features were investigated with particular interest in the carbon and oxygen concentrations across the samples cross section. The optimization showed that a temperature of 925 °C with a pack composition of 1 part carbon to 1 part energizer produced surface capable of withstanding a contact pressure of ≈ 1.5 GPa for 1 h. The process resulted in TiC surface structure which offers enhanced hardness (2100 HV) and generates a low friction coefficient (μ ≈ 0.2) when in dry sliding contact with an alumina (Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}) ball. The process also produced an extended oxygen diffusion zone that helps to improve the load bearing capacity of the substrate.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2015

TGF-β-induced IκB-ζ controls Foxp3 gene expression

Inhibitor of kappa B (IκB)-ζ, a member of the nuclear IκB family of proteins, is induced by the transforming growth factor (TGF)-β signaling pathway and plays a pivotal role in maintaining the balance of T helper (Th) cell subsets. IκB-ζ deficiency results in reduced percentages of Th17 cells and increased percentages of Th1 cells. In this study, the effects of IκB-ζ deficiency on T-cell subsets were examined further. The data showed that IκB-ζ-deficient T cells had a high capacity for generation of regulatory T cells (Tregs) when T cells were cultured under TGF-β stimulation in the presence of cytokine-neutralizing antibodies. Mechanistically, IκB-ζ itself negatively regulated activation of the Foxp3 promoter in a nuclear factor of kappaB-dependent manner. Thus, this study showed that IκB-ζ controlled Treg differentiation. - Highlights: • IκB-ζ-deficient T cells exhibited increased generation of Foxp3{sup +} Tregs. • IκB-ζ played a key role in Foxp3 gene expression. • Retroviral overexpression of IκB-ζ was achieved in T cells.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Framework for the Assessment of a Sustainable Hydrogen Production and Supply Chain Network in California

The cost-effective and sustainable deployment of hydrogen supply and demand networks, especially in large economic regions like California, can be challenging considering the spatial-temporal availability and variability of the different actors across the network such as production processes, distribution modes, and end-users. In this presentation, we will provide an overview and demonstration of a modeling framework used to assess the environmental, economic, and human health impacts of plausible hydrogen production and supply chain networks in California. Scenarios focus on green hydrogen production pathways using water electrolysis and biomass gasification. End-use applications included in the model are transit, medium and heavy-duty trucking, port authorities, and power and aviation companies that currently consume natural gas, diesel, and aviation fuel for their day-to-day operation. Representative locations for hydrogen production and end-use are based on recent projections of the hydrogen economy in California. All mass and energy flows, as well as estimated emissions, are based on H2A process model designs and projections of technology performance, literature review, and LBNL process, economic and life cycle modeling, and not on company data for the sake of this presentation. Human health impacts are included following methodologies developed for the University of California Irvine HyDeal project. Life cycle phases associated with hydrogen production include feedstock preparation (water and biomass), energy production and consumption (renewable, grid, and combination of renewable and grid electricity), maintenance (chemical utilization in electrolysis and natural gas combustion in gasification), carbon sequestration, hydrogen storage (compression and liquefaction), and distribution (truck and pipeline). We apply the framework utilizing California specific emission factors, financial data, and human health damages and explore the impact of network characteristics on results. Example variations include: the inclusion of policy incentives or not, different representations of the electricity grid and source, electrolysis versus gasification versus combinations of both for production, liquefaction versus compression based on producer capacity cutoffs, transportation truck versus pipeline based on existing infrastructure, and ultimate end use. Comparison of these different scenarios can help inform future projects by demonstrating the trade-offs among environmental, economic, and human health impacts. This model, automated in R, is a starting platform upon which new analysis, modeling capabilities, locations, and emission factors can be rapidly tested and integrated.

Zaki, Mohammed Tamim↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydrogen-Bonding Reinforced Flexible Composite Electrodes for Enhanced Energy Storage

The lack of advanced electrode materials is one of the main factors hindering the development of flexible rechargeable aqueous batteries (RABs) for high specific energy density and structural stability. It is also challenging to achieve high-capacity performance for both the positive and negative electrodes simultaneously. In this work, it is demonstrated that, by smartly designing the composite structures of positive and negative electrodes via one-step electrodeposition strategy, the energy storage performance of the RAB is largely enhanced. For positive electrode material synthesis, Co-Cu double hydroxides (Co-Cu-DH) nanosheets are skillfully rooted into electroreduced graphene oxide (eRG) via hydrogen bonding, in which graphene oxide reduction, Co-Cu-DH nucleation/growth, and formation of hydrogen bonding between Co-Cu-DH and eRG simultaneously occur. Moreover, when a RAB based on Co-Cu-DH@eRG//FeOOH@eRG using the same composite design strategy is established, a wide operating voltage window of ≈1.8 V, a high specific energy density of ≈142.8 Wh kg –1 at ≈890 W kg –1 , and long-term cyclic stability (88.5% of capacity retention after 12 000 cycles) are obtained. This study presents a general compositing strategy for the development of advanced electrode materials, and it is expected to stimulate future material synthesis/design in RABs toward the goal of high energy density storage.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Analysis of mechanical, thermodynamic, and thermoelectric properties of ferromagnetic SrFe{sub 4}As{sub 12} skutterudite

In the present work, the electronic, mechanical, thermal and thermoelectric properties of Sr-filled skutterudite have been investigated in the framework of density functional theory. SrFe{sub 4}As{sub 12} shows a ferromagnet character with a magnetic moment of 1.76 μ{sub B} at an optimized lattice parameter of 8.38 Å. The effect of high-pressures on thermodynamic properties viz. thermal expansion coefficient, specific heat capacity and Grüneisen parameter is also carried out by employing the quasi-harmonic Debye model. Temperature dependence of Seebeck coefficient, electrical conductivity, thermal conductivity, power factor, and figure of merit is observed up to 800 K. The lattice thermal conductivity decreases with temperature due to rattling behavior of the filler atom. SrFe{sub 4}As{sub 12} exhibits the high value of the figure of merit equal to 0.76 at 800 K. The present results clearly signify that SrFe{sub 4}As{sub 12} may be a good choice for thermoelectric applications due to its high-power factor and figure of merit.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2018

Evaluation of Nanoscale Accessible Pore Structures for Improved Prediction of Gas Production Potential in Chinese Marine Shales

The Lower Cambrian Niutitang and Lower Silurian Longmaxi shales in the Upper Yangtze Platform (UYP) are the most promising strata for shale gas exploration in China. Knowledge of the nanoscale pore structure may improve the prediction of the gas production potential in Chinese marine shales. A systematic investigation of the pore accessibility and its impact on methane adsorption capacity has been conducted on shale samples using various techniques including geochemical and mineralogical analyses, field-emission scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM), small-angle neutron scattering (SANS), helium porosimetry, and methane adsorption. The results show that organic matter (OM) pores with various shapes dominate the pore systems of these shales. OM tended to mix with clay minerals and converted to organoclay complexes, developing plentiful micro- and mesopores. A unified fit model with two pore structures, fractal pores and finite pores, was used to model the SANS data to characterize the pore structure of the shales. Both mass and surface fractals are identified for each pore structure. The total porosity estimated by the Porod invariant method ranges between 2.35 and 16.40%, of which the porosity for finite pores ranges between 0.35 and 6.36%, and the porosity for the fractal pores ranges between 2.07 and 8.51%. The fraction of open pores was evaluated by comparing the porosities estimated by He porosimetry and SANS. We find that the fraction of open pores is higher than 64% for most of these shales. Correlation analyses suggest that clay and total organic carbon (TOC) have opposite effects on pore structure and methane adsorption capacity. Samples with higher clay contents have higher pore accessibility and lower total porosity, surface area, and maximum methane adsorption, whereas samples with higher TOC content show the inverse relationships. The high percentage of open pores may reduce methane adsorption capacity in these shales, whereas low pore accessibility may reduce methane production at specific pressure differences. Furthermore, both TOC and pore accessibility may be essential controlling factors in methane production from shale gas reservoirs.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Estimating Cost and Energy Demand in Producing Lithium Hexafluorophosphate for Li-Ion Battery Electrolyte

In this work, the production of Lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF 6 ) for Lithium-ion battery application is studied. Spreadsheet-based process models are developed to simulate three different production processes. These process models are then used to estimate and analyze the factors affecting cost of manufacturing, energy demand, and environmental impact due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Moreover, the results indicate that in a facility with a capacity of making 10,000 metric tons per year of LiPF 6 the cost of production is around $20 per kg of LiPF 6 , energy consumption is around 30 GWh per year, and the emission of greenhouse gases in CO 2- equivalent gases is around 80 metric tons per day. The impact of change in process and economic parameters on the cost of production, energy demand, and emissions is studied. In addition, a few insights on reducing the cost of production are presented. Lastly, the impact of varying LiPF 6 costs on the overall cost of a Li-ion battery ($ kWh -1 ) is presented.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2018

Control of thermal expansion in a low-density framework modification of silicon

The low-density clathrate-II modification of silicon, Si 136 , contains two distinct cage-like voids large enough to accommodate various types of guest atoms which influence both the host structure and its properties. Although the linear coefficient of thermal expansion of Si 136 (293 K < T < 423 K) is only about 20% larger than that of the ground state α-Si (diamond structure), the coefficient of thermal expansion monotonically increases by more than 150% upon filling the framework cages with Na atoms in Na x Si 136 (0 < x < 24), ranging from α = 2.6 x 10 –6 K –1 (x = 0) to 6.8 × 10 –6 K –1 (extrapolated to x = 24) by only varying the Na content, x. Taken together with the available heat capacity and bulk modulus data, the dramatic increase in thermal expansion can be attributed to an increase in the mode-averaged Grüneisen parameter by a factor of nearly 3 from x = 0 to x = 24. Furthermore, these results highlight a potential mechanism for tuning thermal expansion, whereby guest atoms are incorporated into the voids of rigid, covalently bonded inorganic frameworks to influence the lattice dynamics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Impacts of Federal Tax Credit Extensions on Renewable Deployment and Power Sector Emissions

The report examines the impacts of the tax credit extensions under two distinct natural gas price futures, as the price of natural gas has been a key factor influencing the economic competitiveness of new renewable energy development. The analysis finds that, in both natural gas price cases, tax credit extensions can spur renewable capacity investments at least through the early 2020s, and can help lower CO 2 emissions from the U.S. electricity system. Federal tax credits for renewable energy, particularly the wind production tax credit (PTC) and the solar investment tax credit (ITC), have offered financial incentives for renewable energy deployment over the last two decades in the United States. In December 2015, the wind and solar tax credits were extended by five years from their prior scheduled expiration dates, but ramp down in tax credit value during the latter years of the five-year period.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Illuminating Common Ground: Success Factors for Contiguous US Tribal Solar Energy

Tribal energy development is a complex multi-faceted topic. The objective of this work is to identify common themes across tribal solar energy deployment projects, focusing specifically on lessons learned and recommendations. Identifying these commonalities and learning from the experiences of tribes that have embarked in energy development efforts can help to inform the development of future tribal solar energy projects. A thematic qualitative analysis approach was used to analyze project reports and presentations for 41 tribal solar deployment projects (only within the contiguous United States) funded by the Office of Indian Energy Policy and Programs, applying a framework of success factors developed from the literature. The results of the qualitative analysis are described in four discrete parts: comprehensive and inclusive planning, fostering partnerships and collaboration, building capacity, and exercising and advancing tribal sovereignty. Each of the overarching themes inform recommendations for tribes to promote the success of solar projects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Experimental Warming Changes Phenology and Shortens Growing Season of the Dominant Invasive Plant Bromus tectorum (Cheatgrass)

Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) has successfully invaded and established throughout the western United States. Bromus tectorum grows early in the season and this early growth allows B. tectorum to outcompete native species, which has led to dramatic shifts in ecosystem function and plant community composition after B. tectorum invades. If the phenology of native species is unable to track changing climate as effectively as B. tectorum’s phenology then climate change may facilitate further invasion. To better understand how B. tectorum phenology will respond to future climate, we tracked the timing of B. tectorum germination, flowering, and senescence over a decade in three in situ climate manipulation experiments with treatments that increased temperatures (2°C and 4°C above ambient), altered precipitation regimes, or applied a combination of each. Linear mixed-effects models were used to analyze treatment effects on the timing of germination, flowering, senescence, and on the length of the vegetative growing season (time from germination to flowering) in each experiment. Altered precipitation treatments were only applied in early years of the study and neither precipitation treatments nor the treatments’ legacies significantly affected B. tectorum phenology. The timing of germination did not significantly vary between any warming treatments and their respective ambient plots. However, plots that were warmed had advances in the timing of B. tectorum flowering and senescence, as well as shorter vegetative growing seasons. The phenological advances caused by warming increased with increasing degrees of experimental warming. The greatest differences between warmed and ambient plots were seen in the length of the vegetative growing season, which was shortened by approximately 12 and 7 days in the +4°C and +2°C warming levels, respectively. The effects of experimental warming were small compared to the effects of interannual climate variation, suggesting that interactive controls and the timing of multiple climatic factors are important in determining B. tectorum phenology. Taken together, these results help elucidate how B. tectorum phenology may respond to future climate, increasing our predictive capacity for estimating when to time B. tectorum control efforts and how to more effectively manage this exotic annual grass.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1983

Sizing criterial for traction drives

A simplified traction drive fatigue analysis which was derived from the Lundberg-Palmgren theory is measured and the effects of rotational speed, multiplicity of contacts, and variation in the available traction coefficient on traction drive system life, size, and power capacity was investigated. Simplified equations are provided for determining the 90% survival life rating of steel traction drive contacts of arbitrary geometry. References to life modifying factors for material, lubrication, and traction will be made.

Rohn, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS1997

The Neuroendocrinology of Thirst and Salt Appetite: Visceral Sensory Signals and Mechanisms of Central Integration

This review examines recent advances in the study of the behavioral responses to deficits of body water and body sodium that in humans are accompanied by the sensations of thirst and salt appetite. Thirst and salt appetite are satisfied by ingesting water and salty substances. These behavioral responses to losses of body fluids, together with reflex endocrine and neural responses, are critical for reestablishing homeostasis. Like their endocrine and neural counterparts, these behaviors are under the control of both excitatory and inhibitory influences arising from changes in osmolality, endocrine factors such as angiotensin and aldosterone, and neural signals from low and high pressure baroreceptors. The excitatory and inhibitory influences reaching the brain require the integrative capacity of a neural network which includes the structures of the lamina terminalis, the amygdala, the perifornical area, and the paraventricular nucleus in the forebrain, and the lateral parabrachial nucleus (LPBN), the nucleus tractus solitarius (NTS), and the area postrema in the hindbrain. These regions are discussed in terms of their roles in receiving afferent sensory input and in processing information related to hydromineral balance. Osmoreceptors controlling thirst are located in systemic Viscera and in central structures that lack the blood-brain barrier. Angiotensin and aldosterone act on and through structures of the lamina terminalis and the amygdala to stimulate thirst and sodium appetite under conditions of hypovolemia. The NTS and LPBN receive neural signals from baroreceptors and are responsible for inhibiting the ingestion of fluids under conditions of increased volume and pressure and for stimulating thirst under conditions of bypovolemia and hypotension. The interplay of multiple facilitory influences within the brain may take the form of interactions between descending angiotensinergic systems originating in the forebrain and ascending adrenergic systems emanating from the hindbrain. Oxytocin and serotonin are additional candidate neuro- chemicals with postulated inhibitory central actions and with essential roles in the overall integration of sensory input within the neural network devoted to maintaining hydromineral balance.

Johnson, Alan Kim↗
NASA NTRS2003

Ionizing radiation induces heritable disruption of epithelial cell interactions

Ionizing radiation (IR) is a known human breast carcinogen. Although the mutagenic capacity of IR is widely acknowledged as the basis for its action as a carcinogen, we and others have shown that IR can also induce growth factors and extracellular matrix remodeling. As a consequence, we have proposed that an additional factor contributing to IR carcinogenesis is the potential disruption of critical constraints that are imposed by normal cell interactions. To test this hypothesis, we asked whether IR affected the ability of nonmalignant human mammary epithelial cells (HMEC) to undergo tissue-specific morphogenesis in culture by using confocal microscopy and imaging bioinformatics. We found that irradiated single HMEC gave rise to colonies exhibiting decreased localization of E-cadherin, beta-catenin, and connexin-43, proteins necessary for the establishment of polarity and communication. Severely compromised acinar organization was manifested by the majority of irradiated HMEC progeny as quantified by image analysis. Disrupted cell-cell communication, aberrant cell-extracellular matrix interactions, and loss of tissue-specific architecture observed in the daughters of irradiated HMEC are characteristic of neoplastic progression. These data point to a heritable, nonmutational mechanism whereby IR compromises cell polarity and multicellular organization.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Anthropogenic Pathways for Modeling and Managing Future Arctic Fires

Wildland fires, including extreme fire events and seasons, are becoming more common in the boreal and Arctic regions due to climate change. Current climate modeling approaches do not include country- or region-specific socioeconomic pathways that specifically address the drivers of and potential mitigation techniques for wildland fires. Forest management, energy extraction, and tourism, together with firefighting capacity and readiness as well as fuels treatment, can have a significant impact on future wildland fire risks and impacts. To assess the impacts of anthropogenic factors and to align with previous work done on shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), climate pathways for future wildfires up to 2050 were created for the states that compose the original Arctic Council countries: Canada, the United States, the Kingdom of Denmark, Iceland, Sweden, Norway, and Finland as well as the Russian Federation (with whom the other seven countries withdrew participation from in May 2022 due to the invasion and ongoing war in Ukraine). High and low fire activity and risk pathways for all states comprising the Arctic were made, with expert ‘best guess’ pathways for each state created separately to represent the middle of road. The low activity and low fire risk pathways, named “We Got This”, assume active fire suppression via citizenry participation and official land management, efficient and extensive fuel treatments, and consistent and active wildland firefighting for each new ignition. The high activity and high fire risk pathways, named “Let It Burn”, assume nearly the opposite, due to lack of government and community response and no action on climate change drivers that increase wildland fire risk. The ‘best guess’ pathway, named “The Fire Will Come”, indicates that some countries are currently on the pathway for less fire compared to other Arctic and Boreal states but not a ‘no-fire’ future. For example, in the Nordic countries, human ignition sources from tourism, timber and energy extraction, summer cottages, and expanding wildland-urban intermix due to exurban growth may increase. In North America, these same risks will apply but also may see an expansion of agriculture that increases the likelihood of open burning in croplands. Drier fuel condition and extreme heat events due to climate change create favorable conditions for extreme wildfires from any ignition source. Throughout the Arctic and boreal lightning is expected to increase, increasing the risk of tundra fires in addition to forest fires in hard-to-reach locations that are more difficult to coordinate and execute wildland firefighting. To move the future Arctic fire SSPs forward, several short-term and long-term actions must be completed. Certain data needs are required, like a harmonized pan-Arctic and pan-boreal fuels geospatial product, while also a need to refine and socialize current definitions of fire seasons and fire management – including developing an open-source system to track and share innovation, mitigation, and adaptation strategies across Arctic states.

Arctic↗