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NASA NTRS2000

Predicting Fire Susceptibility in the Forests of Amazonia

Although fire is the single greatest threat to the ecological integrity of Amazon forests, our ability to predict the occurrence of Amazon forest fires is rudimentary. Part of the difficulty encountered in making such predictions is the remarkable capacity of Amazon forests to tolerate drought by tapping moisture stored in deep soil. These forests can avoid drought-induced leaf shedding by withdrawing moisture to depths of 8 meters and more. Hence, the absorption of deep soil moisture allows these forests to maintain their leaf canopies following droughts of several months duration, thereby maintaining the deep shade and high relative humidity of the forest interior that prevents these ecosystems from burning. But the drought- and fire-avoidance that is conferred by this deep-rooting phenomenon is not unlimited. During successive years of drought, such as those provoked by El Nino episodes, deep soil moisture can be depleted, and drought-induced leaf shedding begins. The goal of this project was to incorporate this knowledge of Amazon forest fire ecology into a predictive model of forest flammability.

Nepstad, Daniel C.↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Impact of Devegetated Dune Fields on North American Climate During the Late Medieval Climate Anomaly

During the Medieval Climate Anomaly, North America experienced severe droughts and widespread mobilization of dune fields that persisted for decades. We use an atmosphere general circulation model, forced by a tropical Pacific sea surface temperature reconstruction and changes in the land surface consistent with estimates of dune mobilization (conceptualized as partial devegetation), to investigate whether the devegetation could have exacerbated the medieval droughts. Presence of devegetated dunes in the model significantly increases surface temperatures, but has little impact on precipitation or drought severity, as defined by either the Palmer Drought Severity Index or the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration. Results are similar to recent studies of the 1930s Dust Bowl drought, suggesting bare soil associated with the dunes, in and of itself, is not sufficient to amplify droughts over North America.

Cook, B. I.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Fir Decline and Mortality in the Southern Siberian Mountains

Increased dieback and mortality of dark needle conifer (DNC) stands (composed of fir (Abies sibirica),Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and spruce (Picea obovata)) were documented in Russia during recent decades. Here we analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of fir decline and mortality in the southern Siberian Mountains based on satellite, in situ and dendrochronological data. The studied stands are located within the boundary between DNC taiga to the north and forest-steppe to the south. Fir decline and mortality were observed to originate where topographic features contributed to maximal water-stress risk, i.e., steep (18 deg to 25 deg), convex, south-facing slopes with a shallow well-drained root zone. Fir regeneration survived droughts and increased stem radial growth, while upper canopy trees died. Tree ring width (TRW) growth negatively correlated with vapor pressure deficit (VPD), drought index and occurrence of late frosts, and positively with soil water content. Previous year growth conditions (i.e., drought index, VPD, soil water anomalies) have a high impact on current TRW (r = 0.60 to 0.74). Fir mortality was induced by increased water stress and severe droughts (as a primary factor) in synergy with bark-beetles and fungi attacks (as secondary factors). Dendrochronology data indicated that fir mortality is a periodic process. In a future climate with increased aridity and drought frequency, fir (and Siberian pine) may disappear from portions of its current range (primarily within the boundary with the forest- steppe) and is likely to be replaced by drought-tolerant species such as Pinus sylvestris and Larix sibirica.

conifer mortality↗

NASA NTRS2016

Fir Decline and Mortality in the Southern Siberian Mountains

Increased dieback and mortality of dark needle conifer (DNC) stands (composed of fir (Abies sibirica),Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and spruce (Picea obovata))were documented in Russia during recent decades. Here we analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of fir decline and mortality in the southern Siberian Mountains based on satellite, in situ and dendrochronological data. The studied stands are located within the boundary between DNC taiga to the north and forest-steppe to the south. Fir decline and mortality were observed to originate where topographic features contributed to maximal water-stress risk, i.e., steep (1825),convex, south-facing slopes with a shallow well-drained root zone. Fir regeneration survived droughts and increased stem radial growth, while upper canopy trees died. Tree ring width(TRW) growth negatively correlated with vapor pressure deficit (VPD), drought index and occurrence of late frosts, and positively with soil water content. Previous year growth conditions (i.e., drought index, VPD, soil water anomalies)have a high impact on current TRW (r 0.600.74). Fir mortality was induced by increased water stress and severe droughts (as a primary factor) in synergy with bark-beetles and fungi attacks (as secondary factors). Dendrochronology data indicated that fir mortality is a periodic process. In a future climate with increased aridity and drought frequency, fir (and Siberian pine) may disappear from portions of its current range (primarily within the boundary with the forest steppe)and is likely to be replaced by drought-tolerant species such as Pinus sylvestris and Larix sibirica.

Kharuk, Viacheslav I.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Expanding the Spatiotemporal Range of Soil Moisture Analysis Utilizing NASA Earth Observations and In Situ Measurements

Drought can cause immense agricultural and ecological damage resulting in high mitigation and compensation costs. Climate variability in future decades is expected to cause severe drought conditions and threaten necessary water resources. Stakeholders seek to implement effective drought assessments in preparation for potential economic and environmental damage invoked by drought. Although in-situ measurements are accurate, the current infrastructure is spatially limited and costly to maintain. A framework was created to compare modeled, satellite and in-situ data in drought monitoring. Here we show that the comparison of in-situ and remotely sensed soil moisture (SM) measurements can increase the spatiotemporal range of SM assessments. Data collected between 2003 and 2021 by NASA’s SPoRT Land Information System (SPoRT-LIS) and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission were standardized and compared with in-situ data provided through the Illinois Climate Network (WARM). Statistical analysis results including the Pearson correlation coefficient (r), root mean squared error, mean absolute error and others were calculated to compare the WARM measurements to the SMAP and SPoRT-LIS products. Results indicate that both satellite products demonstrate seasonally variable bias that is not present in the in-situ measurements. Bias was highest in the winter months and lowest in the late summer and early fall months in both satellite datasets. Overall, WARM-SPoRT comparisons resulted in lower seasonal variability. However, on average, the SMAP comparison demonstrated higher correlation values and lower error values. The WARM-SMAP average correlation (r) was 0.61 compared to the WARM-SPoRT average correlation (r) value of 0.54. Average mean absolute error values calculated for the SMAP and SPoRT comparisons were 0.07 and 0.08 percent soil moisture by volume, respectively. These analyses suggest integrating in-situ measurements and those provided by NASA Earth observations can be utilized in a multi-faceted SM evaluation, a valuable contribution to drought monitoring and water resource decision making.

Emma P Myrick↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring Coupled Land-Atmosphere Carbon Dynamics and Seasonal Carbon Forecast Skill

Terrestrial biosphere is an integral part of the climate system and plays a vital role in controlling the dynamics of the Earth’s carbon cycle. In this talk, I will present recent efforts to explore coupled land-atmosphere carbon dynamics and seasonal carbon cycle predictability. First, by imposing an idealized spring drought in coupled land‐atmosphere ensemble simulations, we investigated the impact of a regional drought on land and atmospheric carbon. Through the drought-induced impact on remote meteorology, the capability of the land’s carbon uptake is altered in both the drought area and the adjacent areas. The induced anomalies of the atmospheric CO2 extend to an area up to three times of that of the imposed drought, which suggests that atmospheric transport needs to be considered in the interpretation of the drought impact on carbon anomalies. Increase in column‐averaged monthly CO2 is at the edge of the uncertainty from single soundings of current greenhouse gas observing satellites. Secondly, the seasonal carbon forecast skill was explored using NASA’s subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble forecast and terrestrial biosphere model. The result demonstrates an ability to accurately predict spring-summer carbon uptake in the Northern Hemisphere mid and high latitude land at multi-month leads. The prediction skill appears to be achieved by accurate forecasts of snow removal timing, which provides a latent predictability to the forecast system, and by proper initialization of carbon and nitrogen states. Additionally, I will briefly discuss other ongoing research to improve hydrometeorological prediction by integrating biogeochemical processes, to evaluate forecast skill of wildfire carbon, and to apply subseasonal forecasts to water resources management.

Eunjee Lee↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multivariate environmental and trait-based controls of transpiration in the Central Amazon Rainforest

Tropical forest tree mortality is increasing due to more severe droughts, yet our understanding of how tree traits and life strategies are linked to drought stress has been limited by measurement scarcity. The BIONTE (BIOmass and NuTrient Experiment) near Manaus, Brazil hosts one of the world’s largest sap flow installations, with sensors in 90 canopy trees across a wood density gradient monitored since June 2022. The 2023 El Niño drought provided a unique opportunity to evaluate how water availability impacts tree transpiration. An interpretable machine learning framework was used to study the complex interactions between transpiration and multiple environmental variables such as soil water availability and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and how these interactions vary with wood density and individual trees. We found varying responses of transpiration from different trees during the El Niño drought. Transpiration generally increased with temperature, with stronger effects in wetter areas and in trees with low to medium wood density. However, this response was modulated by stomatal sensitivity to VPD, which constrained transpiration under high atmospheric demand, particularly in intermediate-moisture area. The inflection in transpiration rate at high temperatures (>32°C) underscores the role of stomatal and hydraulic regulation in limiting water loss and protecting trees from excessive evaporative demand. Analysis of soil water contribution to transpiration revealed unimodal patterns in wetter area, with peak contributions near 0.45 cm 3 cm -3 of surface soil water and declining or flat responses beyond that threshold, suggesting a shift from water- to energy-limited transpiration. In contrast, drier areas exhibited limited transpiration sensitivity to soil water conditions and minimal trait-based variation in VPD responses, indicating supply-limited conditions. Despite higher wood density trees being generally more resilient, this study shows diverse tree drought resilience, prompting further investigation into the specific traits and dynamics between environmental variables in regulating transpiration and other physiological processes in trees.

Drought↗

DOE OSTI2018

Arabidopsis calcium-dependent protein kinase AtCPK1 plays a positive role in salt/drought-stress response

Highlights: • AtCPK1 enhances Arabidopsis tolerance to salt or drought stress. • Overexpressing AtCPK1 increases proline and decreases H{sub 2}O{sub 2}, MDA accumulation. • Cpk1 mutant shows increased H{sub 2}O{sub 2} and MDA and decreased proline accumulation. • Overexpressing AtCPK1 up regulates some stress-inducible genes expression. The calcium-dependent protein kinases (CDPKs) play vital roles in plant response to various environmental stimuli. Here, we investigated the function of Arabidopsis AtCPK1 in response to salt and drought stress. The loss-of-function cpk1 mutant displayed hypersensitive to salt and drought stress, whereas overexpressing AtCPK1 in Arabidopsis plants significantly enhanced the resistance to salt or drought stress. The reduced or elevated tolerance of cpk1 mutant and AtCPK1-overexpressing lines was confirmed by the changes of proline, malondialdehyde (MDA) and H{sub 2}O{sub 2}. Real-time PCR analysis revealed that the expression of several stress-inducible genes (RD29A, COR15A, ZAT10, APX2) down-regulated in cpk1 mutant and up-regulated in AtCPK1-overexpressing plants. These results are likely to indicate that AtCPK1 positively regulates salt and drought stress in Arabidopsis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Stability of tropical forest tree carbon-water relations in a rainfall exclusion treatment through shifts in effective water uptake depth

Increasing severity and frequency of drought is predicted for large portions of the terrestrial biosphere, with major impacts already documented in wet tropical forests. Using a 4-year rainfall exclusion experiment in the Daintree Rainforest in northeast Australia, we examined canopy tree responses to reduced precipitation and soil water availability by quantifying seasonal changes in plant hydraulic and carbon traits for 11 tree species between control and drought treatments. Even with reduced soil volumetric water content in the upper 1 m of soil in the drought treatment, we found no significant difference between treatments for predawn and midday leaf water potential, photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, foliar stable carbon isotope composition, leaf mass per area, turgor loss point, xylem vessel anatomy, or leaf and stem nonstructural carbohydrates. While empirical measurements of aboveground traits revealed homeostatic maintenance of plant water status and traits in response to reduced soil moisture, modeled belowground dynamics revealed that trees in the drought treatment shifted the depth from which water was acquired to deeper soil layers. Finally, these findings reveal that belowground acclimation of tree water uptake depth may buffer tropical rainforests from more severe droughts that may arise in future with climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Quantifying soil moisture impacts on light use efficiency across biomes

Terrestrial primary productivity and carbon cycle impacts of droughts are commonly quantified using vapour pressure deficit (VPD) data and remotely sensed greenness, without accounting for soil moisture. However, soil moisture limitation is known to strongly affect plant physiology. Here, we investigate light use efficiency, the ratio of gross primary productivity (GPP) to absorbed light. We derive its fractional reduction due to soil moisture (fLUE), separated from VPD and greenness changes, using artificial neural networks trained on eddy covariance data, multiple soil moisture datasets and remotely sensed greenness. This reveals substantial impacts of soil moisture alone that reduce GPP by up to 40% at sites located in sub-humid, semi-arid or arid regions. For sites in relatively moist climates, we find, paradoxically, a muted fLUE response to drying soil, but reduced fLUE under wet conditions. fLUE identifies substantial drought impacts that are not captured when relying solely on VPD and greenness changes and, when seasonally recurring, are missed by traditional, anomaly-based drought indices. Counter to common assumptions, fLUE reductions are largest in drought-deciduous vegetation, including grasslands. Our results highlight the necessity to account for soil moisture limitation in terrestrial primary productivity data products, especially for drought-related assessments.

vapour pressure deficit (VPD)↗

DOE OSTI2015

Responses of two semiarid conifer tree species to reduced precipitation and warming reveal new perspectives for stomatal regulation

Here, relatively anisohydric species are predicted to be more predisposed to hydraulic failure than relatively isohydric species, as they operate with narrower hydraulic safety margins. We subjected co-occurring anisohydric Juniperus monosperma and isohydric Pinus edulis trees to warming, reduced precipitation, or both, and measured their gas exchange and hydraulic responses. We found that reductions in stomatal conductance and assimilation by heat and drought were more frequent during relatively moist periods, but these effects were not exacerbated in the combined heat and drought treatment. Counter to expectations, both species exhibited similar gs temporal dynamics in response to drought. Further, whereas P. edulis exhibited chronic embolism, J. monosperma showed very little embolism due to its conservative stomatal regulation and maintenance of xylem water potential above the embolism entry point. This tight stomatal control and low levels of embolism experienced by juniper refuted the notion that very low water potentials during drought are associated with loose stomatal control and with the hypothesis that anisohydric species are more prone to hydraulic failure than isohydric species. Because direct association of stomatal behaviour with embolism resistance can be misleading, we advocate consideration of stomatal behaviour relative to embolism resistance for classifying species drought response strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Rapid remodeling of the soil lipidome in response to a drying-rewetting event

Abstract Background Microbiomes contribute to multiple ecosystem services by transforming organic matter in the soil. Extreme shifts in the environment, such as drying-rewetting cycles during drought, can impact the microbial metabolism of organic matter by altering microbial physiology and function. These physiological responses are mediated in part by lipids that are responsible for regulating interactions between cells and the environment. Despite this critical role in regulating the microbial response to stress, little is known about microbial lipids and metabolites in the soil or how they influence phenotypes that are expressed under drying-rewetting cycles. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a soil incubation experiment to simulate soil drying during a summer drought of an arid grassland, then measured the response of the soil lipidome and metabolome during the first 3 h after wet-up. Results Reduced nutrient access during soil drying incurred a replacement of membrane phospholipids, resulting in a diminished abundance of multiple phosphorus-rich membrane lipids. The hot and dry conditions increased the prevalence of sphingolipids and lipids containing long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids, both of which are associated with heat and osmotic stress-mitigating properties in fungi. This novel finding suggests that lipids commonly present in eukaryotes such as fungi may play a significant role in supporting community resilience displayed by arid land soil microbiomes during drought. As early as 10 min after rewetting dry soil, distinct changes were observed in several lipids that had bacterial signatures including a rapid increase in the abundance of glycerophospholipids with saturated and short fatty acid chains, prototypical of bacterial membrane lipids. Polar metabolites including disaccharides, nucleic acids, organic acids, inositols, and amino acids also increased in abundance upon rewetting. This rapid metabolic reactivation and growth after rewetting coincided with an increase in the relative abundance of firmicutes, suggesting that members of this phylum were positively impacted by rewetting. Conclusions Our study revealed specific changes in lipids and metabolites that are indicative of stress adaptation, substrate use, and cellular recovery during soil drying and subsequent rewetting. The drought-induced nutrient limitation was reflected in the lipidome and polar metabolome, both of which rapidly shifted (within hours) upon rewet. Reduced nutrient access in dry soil caused the replacement of glycerophospholipids with phosphorus-free lipids and impeded resource-expensive osmolyte accumulation. Elevated levels of ceramides and lipids with long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids in dry soil suggest that lipids likely play an important role in the drought tolerance of microbial taxa capable of synthesizing these lipids. An increasing abundance of bacterial glycerophospholipids and triacylglycerols with fatty acids typical of bacteria and polar metabolites suggest a metabolic recovery in representative bacteria once the environmental conditions are conducive for growth. These results underscore the importance of the soil lipidome as a robust indicator of microbial community responses, especially at the short time scales of cell-environment reactions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

The effects of environmental conditions on eggshell thickness of two North American secondary cavity-nesting birds

Egg hatchability in birds is a critical component of individual reproductive success and is associated with eggshell integrity. Contaminants, such as DDT, can influence eggshell thickness and are known to cause population declines. Moisture content and temperature can also impact eggshell thickness, but the influence of environmental conditions on the natural variation in eggshell thickness in wild populations is not well understood. Our goal was to investigate the relationship between environmental conditions and eggshell thickness of Western Bluebird (Sialia mexicana) and Ash-throated Flycatcher (Myiarchus cinerascens) eggs from 1997 to 2013 on the Pajarito Plateau in northern New Mexico. We tested whether nesting elevation, temperature, precipitation, and drought conditions influenced eggshell thickness in these two secondary cavity-nesting species, while also looking at eggshell thickness over time. Over the 16 years, nonviable or abandoned eggs were collected, and the analyzed dataset included 330 bluebird eggs and 113 flycatcher eggs. There was a significant increase in eggshell thickness over time for both species. Flycatcher eggshells were correlated with higher temperatures, whereas bluebird eggshells were influenced by an interaction between temperature and drought severity. In drought conditions, bluebird eggshell thickness was positively correlated with temperature, whereas in wet conditions, eggshell thickness was negatively correlated with temperature. Thicker eggshells in drought conditions may be a way of reducing water loss from eggs, which occurs faster at higher temperatures. In the southwestern United States, frequent and severe drought, higher temperatures, and decreases in precipitation are all expected to continue. In conclusion, the structure of eggs will be important to consider regarding how species may or may not adapt to novel conditions or persist in new environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Exploring Trait Trade-Offs for Fungal Decomposers in a Southern California Grassland

Fungi are important decomposers in terrestrial ecosystems, so their responses to climate change might influence carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics. We investigated whether growth and activity of fungi under drought conditions were structured by trade-offs among traits in 15 fungal isolates from a Mediterranean Southern California grassland. We inoculated fungi onto sterilized litter that was incubated at three moisture levels (4, 27, and 50% water holding capacity, WHC). For each isolate, we characterized traits that described three potential lifestyles within the newly proposed “YAS” framework: growth yield, resource acquisition, and stress tolerance. Specifically, we measured fungal hyphal length per unit litter decomposition for growth yield; the potential activities of the extracellular enzymes cellobiohydrolase (CBH), β -glucosidase (BG), β -xylosidase (BX), and N-acetyl- β - D -glucosaminidase (NAG) for resource acquisition; and ability to grow in drought vs. higher moisture levels for drought stress tolerance. Although, we had hypothesized that evolutionary and physiological trade-offs would elicit negative relationships among traits, we found no supporting evidence for this hypothesis. Across isolates, growth yield, drought stress tolerance, and extracellular enzyme activities were not significantly related to each other. Thus, it is possible that drought-induced shifts in fungal community composition may not necessarily lead to changes in fungal biomass or decomposer ability in this arid grassland.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Below versus above Ground Plant Sources of Abscisic Acid (ABA) at the Heart of Tropical Forest Response to Warming

Warming surface temperatures and increasing frequency and duration of widespread droughts threaten the health of natural forests and agricultural crops. High temperatures (HT) and intense droughts can lead to the excessive plant water loss and the accumulation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) resulting in extensive physical and oxidative damage to sensitive plant components including photosynthetic membranes. ROS signaling is tightly integrated with signaling mechanisms of the potent phytohormone abscisic acid (ABA), which stimulates stomatal closure leading to a reduction in transpiration and net photosynthesis, alters hydraulic conductivities, and activates defense gene expression including antioxidant systems. While generally assumed to be produced in roots and transported to shoots following drought stress, recent evidence suggests that a large fraction of plant ABA is produced in leaves via the isoprenoid pathway. Thus, through stomatal regulation and stress signaling which alters water and carbon fluxes, we highlight the fact that ABA lies at the heart of the Carbon-Water-ROS Nexus of plant response to HT and drought stress. We discuss the current state of knowledge of ABA biosynthesis, transport, and degradation and the role of ABA and other isoprenoids in the oxidative stress response. We discuss potential variations in ABA production and stomatal sensitivity among different plant functional types including isohydric/anisohydric and pioneer/climax tree species. We describe experiments that would demonstrate the possibility of a direct energetic and carbon link between leaf ABA biosynthesis and photosynthesis, and discuss the potential for a positive feedback between leaf warming and enhanced ABA production together with reduced stomatal conductance and transpiration. Finally, we propose a new modeling framework to capture these interactions. We conclude by discussing the importance of ABA in diverse tropical ecosystems through increases in the thermotolerance of photosynthesis to drought and heat stress, and the global importance of these mechanisms to carbon and water cycling under climate change scenarios.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2018

Codominant grasses differ in gene expression under experimental climate extremes in native tallgrass prairie

Extremes in climate, such as heat waves and drought, are expected to become more frequent and intense with forecasted climate change. Plant species will almost certainly differ in their responses to these stressors. We experimentally imposed a heat wave and drought in the tallgrass prairie ecosystem near Manhattan, Kansas, USA to assess transcriptional responses of two ecologically important C 4 grass species, Andropogon gerardii and Sorghastrum nutans . Based on previous research, we expected that S. nutans would regulate more genes, particularly those related to stress response, under high heat and drought. Across all treatments, S. nutans showed greater expression of negative regulatory and catabolism genes while A. gerardii upregulated cellular and protein metabolism. As predicted, S. nutans showed greater sensitivity to water stress, particularly with downregulation of non-coding RNAs and upregulation of water stress and catabolism genes. A. gerardii was less sensitive to drought , although A. gerardii tended to respond with upregulation in response to drought versus S. nutans which downregulated more genes under drier conditions. Surprisingly, A. gerardii only showed minimal gene expression response to increased temperature, while S. nutans showed no response. Gene functional annotation suggested that these two species may respond to stress via different mechanisms. Specifically, A. gerardii tends to maintain molecular function while S. nutans prioritizes avoidance. Sorghastrum nutans may strategize abscisic acid response and catabolism to respond rapidly to stress. These results have important implications for success of these two important grass species under a more variable and extreme climate forecast for the future.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2019

Exploiting the Convergence of Evidence in Satellite Data for Advanced Weather Index Insurance Design

The goal of drought-related weather index insurance (WII) is to protect smallholder farmers against the risk of weather shocks and to increase their agricultural productivity. Estimates of precipitation and vegetation greenness are the two dominant satellite datasets. However, ignoring additional moisture- and energy-related processes that influence the response of vegetation to rainfall leads to an incomplete representation of the hydrologic cycle. This study evaluates the added value of considering multiple independent satellite-based variables to design, calibrate, and validate weather insurance indices on the African continent. The satellite data include two rainfall datasets, soil moisture, the evaporative stress index (ESI), and vegetation greenness. We limit artificial advantages by resampling all datasets to the same spatial (0.25°) and temporal (monthly) resolution, although datasets with a higher spatial resolution might have an added value, if considered as the single source of information for localized applications. A higher correlation coefficient between the moisture-focused variables and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), an indicator for vegetation vigor, provides evidence for the datasets’ capability to capture agricultural drought conditions on the ground. The Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) rainfall dataset, soil moisture, and ESI show higher correlations with the (lagged) NDVI in large parts of Africa, for different land covers and various climate zones, than the African Rainfall Climatology, version 2 (ARC2), rainfall dataset, which is often used in WII. A comparison to drought years as reported by farmers in Ethiopia, Senegal, and Zambia indicates a high “hit rate” of all satellite-derived anomalies regarding the detection of severe droughts but limitations regarding moderate drought events.

drought↗

NASA NTRS2022

Gatlinburg & Beatty Wildfires: Evaluating the Role of Soil Moisture in Determining Vegetation Health, Fuel Loads, and Wildfires in the Gatlinburg and Beatty Wildfires

Wildfire potential monitoring, which is increasingly vital under climate change-induced droughts, could be improved by incorporating remotely-sensed soil moisture data. To better understand the connections between soil moisture and vegetation health, stakeholders are interested in using soil moisture data in the development of fire-related indices. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the Desert Research Institute’s Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC), NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), the North Carolina State Climate Office, and Oklahoma State University to evaluate how measures of remotely-sensed standardized soil moisture compare to vegetation health and fire fuel indices in a case study of two fire events: the 2016 Chimney Tops 2 Fire near Gatlinburg, Tennessee and the 2021 Bootleg Fire near Beatty, Oregon. The team visualized vegetation change six months prior to each event using spectral vegetation indices observed by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA’s Terra satellite and the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI). These visualizations were compared to soil moisture data from European Space Agency's (ESA) Climate Change Initiative Soil Moisture (CCI SM) project, collected in part by the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite. Overall, period of record percentiles and fraction of available water standardizations correlated more strongly with fuel load and vegetation indices, indicating their utility for fire potential monitoring. Soil moisture conditions remained exceptionally dry for several months before the Chimney Tops 2 Fire whereas drought conditions only intensified immediately prior to the Bootleg Fire. This indicates greater sensitivity to drought conditions under Western fire regimes. These findings will inform partners’ monitoring of wildfire potential in both regions and development of early warning systems.

soil moisture↗