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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 955 records · Page 53

Predictive modeling of a subcritical pulverized-coal power plant for optimization: Parameter estimation, validation, and application

As renewable power generation deployment increases, fossil fuel plants are increasingly required to operate more flexibly. Many coal-fired power plants were originally designed to operate at base load and do not operate optimally at partial load. Predictive first-principles plant-wide models can be employed to identify opportunities for flexibility improvements and diagnose low-load operating issues. This paper describes the application of the Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems Integrated Platform (IDAES) to model and optimize flexible power plant operations. The key benefits of using IDAES are that it provides an open-source, fully equation-oriented modeling framework for efficient modular model construction, reuse, and customization, together with a mathematical optimization framework leveraging powerful, state-of-the-art solvers. The process systems engineering workflow from predictive process simulation to parameter estimation, model validation, and plant optimization is applicable to a variety of existing and next-generation energy systems as well as other chemical and environmental processes. Here, to demonstrate this capability, a physics-based, steady-state model was developed to improve full- and part-load performance of the Escalante Generating Station, a 245 MWe (net) subcritical pulverized coal-fired power plant owned and operated by Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association. Specifically, sixty-nine model parameters were simultaneously estimated from several months of operating data enabling prediction of flow rates, temperatures, pressures, and steam quality throughout the plant. The validated model was leveraged by Escalante to reduce the minimum operating load from 90 MW to 50 MW by diagnosing a low-load water-hammer issue, enabling coal usage and emissions reductions during periods of low power demand. Additionally, opportunities for heat rate reduction (i.e., efficiency improvement) through a steeper sliding-pressure approach to load-following and optimization of other boiler operating variables were also identified and quantified. For example, a potential efficiency improvement of 0.7 percentage points was observed at half-load operation.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

(U) The Effects of Impurities on Detonator Bridge Performance

The primary route for impurities to impact bridge performance is through an increase in resistivity leading to premature bridge burst resulting in both decreased burst time and burst current. Changes in burst time could increase timing error while a decrease in burst current could reduce the firing margin. The most consistent results may be achieved by the minimization of impurities. However, since complete elimination is not practical, a practical production specification approach is presented. Further, since specification limits should be based on performance, a practical approach to estimate and simulate the effects of impurities is also provided using the existing Davis Bridge Burst Model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Experimental investigation of a solid rocket combustion simulator

The response of solid rocket motor materials to high-temperature corrosive gases is usually accomplished by testing the materials in a subscale solid rocket motor. While this imposes the proper thermal and chemical environment, a solid rocket motor does not provide practical features that would enhance systematic evaluations such as: the ability to throttle for margin testing, on/off capability, low test cost, and a low-hazards test article. Solid Rocket Combustion Simulators (SRCS) are being evaluated by NASA to test solid rocket nozzle materials and incorporate these essential practical features into the testing of rocket materials. The SRCS is designed to generate the thermochemical environment of a solid rocket. It uses hybrid rocket motor technology in which gaseous oxygen (Gox) is injected into a chamber containing a solid fuel grain. Specific chemicals are injected in the aft mixing chamber so that the gases entering the test section match the temperature and a non-dimensional erosion factor B' to insure similarity with a solid motor. Because the oxygen flow can be controlled, this approach allows margin testing, the ability to throttle, and an on/off capability. The fuel grains are inert which makes the test article very safe to handle. The objective of this work was to establish the baseline operating characteristics of a Labscale Solid Rocket Combustion Simulator (LSRCS). This included establishing the baseline burning rates of plexiglass fuels and the evaluation of a combustion instability for hydroxy-terminated polybutadyene (HTPB) propellants. The scope of the project included: (1) activation of MSFC Labscale Hybrid Combustion Simulator; (2) testing of plexiglass fuel at Gox ranges from 0.025 to 0.200 lb/s; (3) burning HTPB fuels at a Gox rate of 0.200 lb/s using four different mixing chamber configurations; and (4) evaluating the fuel regression and chamber pressure responses of each firing.

Frederick, Robert A., Jr.↗

Monte Carlo simulation of radiating reentry flows

The Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method is applied to a radiating, hypersonic, axisymmetric flow over a blunt body in the near continuum regime. The ability of the method to predict the flowfield radiation and the radiative heating is investigated for flow over the Project Fire II configuration at 11.36 kilometers per second at an altitude of 76.42 kilometers. Two methods that differ in the manner in which they treat ionization and estimate electronic excitation are employed. The calculated results are presented and compared with both experimental data and solutions where radiation effects were not included. Differences in the results are discussed. Both methods ignore self absorption and, as a result, overpredict measured radiative heating.

Taylor, Jeff C.↗

Time Varying Compensator Design for Reconfigurable Structures Using Non-Collocated Feedback

Analysis and synthesis tools are developed to improved the dynamic performance of reconfigurable nonminimum phase, nonstrictly positive real-time variant systems. A novel Spline Varying Optimal (SVO) controller is developed for the kinematic nonlinear system. There are several advantages to using the SVO controller, in which the spline function approximates the system model, observer, and controller gain. They are: The spline function approximation is simply connected, thus the SVO controller is more continuous than traditional gain scheduled controllers when implemented on a time varying plant; ft is easier for real-time implementations in storage and computational effort; where system identification is required, the spline function requires fewer experiments, namely four experiments; and initial startup estimator transients are eliminated. The SVO compensator was evaluated on a high fidelity simulation of the Shuttle Remote Manipulator System. The SVO controller demonstrated significant improvement over the present arm performance: (1) Damping level was improved by a factor of 3; and (2) Peak joint torque was reduced by a factor of 2 following Shuttle thruster firings.

Scott, Michael A.↗

Building the Fire Energetics and Emissions Research (FEER) Smoke Emissions Inventory Version 1.0

The Fire Energetics and Emissions Research (FEER) group's new coefficient of emission global gridded product at 1x1 resolution that directly relates fire readiative energy (FRE) to smoke aerosol release, FEERv1.0 Ce, made its public debut in August 2013. Since then, steps have been taken to generate corresponding maps and totals of total particulate matter (PM) emissions using different sources of FRE, and subsequently to simulate the resulting PM(sub 2.5) in the WRF-Chem 3.5 model using emission rates from FEERv1.0 as well as other standard biomass burning emission inventories. An flowchart of the FEER algorithm to calculate Ce is outlined here along with a display of the resulting emissions of total PM globally and also regionally. The modeling results from the WRF-Chem3.5 simulations are also shown.

particulate matter↗

3-D CFD Simulation and Validation of Oxygen-Rich Hydrocarbon Combustion in a Gas-Centered Swirl Coaxial Injector using a Flamelet-Based Approach

Injector design is a critical part of the development of a rocket Thrust Chamber Assembly (TCA). Proper detailed injector design can maximize propulsion efficiency while minimizing the potential for failures in the combustion chamber. Traditional design and analysis methods for hydrocarbon-fuel injector elements are based heavily on empirical data and models developed from heritage hardware tests. Using this limited set of data produces challenges when trying to design a new propulsion system where the operating conditions may greatly differ from heritage applications. Time-accurate, Three-Dimensional (3-D) Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling of combusting flows inside of injectors has long been a goal of the fluid analysis group at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and the larger CFD modeling community. CFD simulation can provide insight into the design and function of an injector that cannot be obtained easily through testing or empirical comparisons to existing hardware. However, the traditional finite-rate chemistry modeling approach utilized to simulate combusting flows for complex fuels, such as Rocket Propellant-2 (RP-2), is prohibitively expensive and time consuming even with a large amount of computational resources. MSFC has been working, in partnership with Streamline Numerics, Inc., to develop a computationally efficient, flamelet-based approach for modeling complex combusting flow applications. In this work, a flamelet modeling approach is used to simulate time-accurate, 3-D, combusting flow inside a single Gas Centered Swirl Coaxial (GCSC) injector using the flow solver, Loci-STREAM. CFD simulations were performed for several different injector geometries. Results of the CFD analysis helped guide the design of the injector from an initial concept to a tested prototype. The results of the CFD analysis are compared to data gathered from several hot-fire, single element injector tests performed in the Air Force Research Lab EC-1 test facility located at Edwards Air Force Base.

Richardson, Brian↗

Extreme Ozone Loss Following Nuclear War Results in Enhanced Surface Ultraviolet Radiation

For the first time, we use a modern climate model with interactive chemistry including the effects of aerosols on photolysis rates to simulate the consequences of regional and global scale nuclear wars (injecting 5 and 150 Tg of soot respectively) for the ozone layer and surface ultraviolet (UV) light. For a global nuclear war, heating in the stratosphere, reduced photolysis, and an increase in catalytic loss from the Hox cycle cause a 15 year-long reduction in the ozone column, with a peak loss of 75% globally and 65% in the tropics. This is larger than predictions from the 1980s, which assumed large injections of nitrogen oxides (NOx),but did not include the effects of smoke. NOx from the fireball and the fires provide a small (5%) Increase to the global average ozone loss for the first few years. Initially, soot would shield the surface from UV-B, but UV Index values would become extreme: greater than 35in the tropics for 4years, and greater than 45during the summer in the southern polar regions for 3 years. For a regional war, global column ozone would be reduced by 25% with recovery taking 12 years. This is similar to previous simulations, but with a faster recovery time due to a shorter lifetime for soot in our simulations. In-line photolysis provides process specific action spectra enabling future integration with biogeochemistry models and allows output that quantifies the potential health impacts from changes in surface UV for this and other larger aerosol injections.

nuclear war↗

Development of Intelligent Monitoring System (IMS) Modules for the Aquistore CO 2 Storage Project

The monitoring data generated at a CO 2 storage site can quickly result in large amounts of data, often requiring significant labor- and time-intensive efforts to process and analyze before being able to make operational decisions. Implementing an intelligent monitoring system (IMS) can reduce the associated data-processing and analysis costs, which can thereby improve the efficiency of the monitoring process and enable real-time operational decision-making. The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) has completed a 3-year project focused on developing an IMS comprising new workflows, algorithms, and a user interface for the automation and integration of geologic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage site-monitoring and simulation data. The design for the IMS was based on using injection and monitoring data acquired from Aquistore, an operating CO 2 storage project. Managed by the Petroleum Technology Research Centre, the Aquistore Project is injecting CO 2 captured from SaskPower’s coal-fired Boundary Dam Power Station into a deep saline formation for geologic storage. Using data from the Aquistore Project provided a real-world basis to develop an IMS.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

CO 2 and Renewable Electricity into Chemicals: Formic Acid Production from Coal Flue Gas

Formic acid (FA) is an industrial chemical. It is used as a preservative for silage, as a digestive aid for animals, as a fluid for fracking, as a pharmaceutical intermediate and in leather tanning. The global formic acid market is valued at 777.4 million USD in 2020 and is expected to reach 851.8 million USD by the end of 2026. A new major formic acid application is the use of formic acid as a key feedstock for the bioprocessing industry. It has the potential to grow tremendously if we can lower the cost of formic acid production compared with the current fossil-fuel one. Recently, Dioxide Materials has developed a technology that can directly convert CO 2 to pure formic acid with a three-compartment CO 2 electrolyzer. However, the electrolyzer performance needs further improvement for the technology to be commercially viable. The major objective of this project is to develop the electrolyzer technology to enable formic acid as a feedstock for the bioprocessing industry to be economically manufactured from flue gas from a coal fired pilot plant. In particular, the project is to understand how to run the electrolyzer for the conversion of CO 2 into formic acid using flue gas from a coal fired power plant as a source of CO 2 . The work will include characterizing how the performance of the electrolyzer changes with low CO 2 concentration and impurities, developing new cell designs that can still operate with feedstocks with low CO 2 concentrations, testing simulated flue gas in the electrolyzer system and developing filters to remove any impurities that arise.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Green Run Modal Test of the NASA Space Launch System Core Stage

The Core Stage of the new NASA Space Launch System (SLS) is a 212-foot-tall rocket assembly—consisting primarily of two cryogenic propellant tanks, an engine section, and four RS-25 rocket engines—that will send crew and large payloads to the moon and beyond for NASA’s Artemis program. Prior to SLS assembly, the Core Stage completed a series of structural and functional tests in the B-2 Test Stand at Stennis Space Center, designated Green Run. The goal of Green Run was to verify analytical models, confirm proper subsystem operation, and test-fire all four RS-25 engines of the Core Stage. In January 2020, Green Run testing began with an experimental modal analysis test, performed by the Marshal Space Flight Center modal test team. A free-boundary test condition of the Core Stage was simulated as close as possible by suspending the massive launch vehicle from the B-2 Test Stand crane. Modal excitation was provided by a pair of 250-lb electro-dynamic shakers for multi-shaker random vibration testing, as well as a 12-pound instrumented hammer for impact testing. Modal response was measured with 550 accelerometer channels distributed on both the Core Stage and the B-2 Test Stand derrick crane. Following one very long day of testing, frequency response functions were calculated from the measured time histories in the target mode frequency range of 5 Hz to 15 Hz, and mode shapes, frequencies, and damping values were successfully estimated. The case-study presented in this paper will discuss Green Run, the SLS Core Stage, the modal test setup and execution, as well as a brief overview of the test results. Challenges associated with testing such a large, suspended structure in an outdoor environment will be discussed as well.

Space Launch System↗

A Process‐Model Perspective on Recent Changes in the Carbon Cycle of North America

Continental North America has been found to be a carbon (C) sink over recent decades by multiple studies employing a variety of estimation approaches. However, several key questions and uncertainties remain with these assessments. Here we used results from an ensemble of 19 state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation models from the TRENDYv9 project to improve these estimates and study the drivers of its interannual variability. Our results show that North America has been a C sink with a magnitude of 0.37 ± 0.38 (mean and one standard deviation) PgC year —1 for the period 2000–2019 (0.31 and 0.44 PgC year —1 in each decade); split into 0.18 ± 0.12 PgC year —1 in Canada (0.15 and 0.20), 0.16 ± 0.17 in the United States (0.14 and 0.17), 0.02 ± 0.05 PgC year —1 in Mexico (0.02 and 0.02) and 0.01 ± 0.02 in Central America and the Caribbean (0.01 and 0.01). About 57% of the new C assimilated by terrestrial ecosystems is allocated into vegetation, 30% into soils, and 13% into litter. Losses of C due to fire account for 41% of the interannual variability of the mean net biome productivity for all North America in the model ensemble. Finally, we show that drought years (e.g., 2002) have the potential to shift the region to a small net C source in the simulations (—0.02 ± 0.46 PgC year —1 ). Our results highlight the importance of identifying the major drivers of the interannual variability of the continental-scale land C cycle along with the spatial distribution of local sink-source dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Produced Water and Waste Heat-aided Blowdown Water Treatment: Using Chemical and Energy Synergisms for Value Creation

The project objective was to develop a cooling blowdown water (BDW) treatment process utilizing produced water (PW) and low-grade heat to maximize water reuse and saleable by-product generation while reducing chemical and energy footprints of the treatment. The proposed treatment process consists of mixing, softening, organics and suspended solids removal, reverse osmosis (RO), thermal desalination, and brine electrolysis. BDW samples collected from a local coal-fired power plant and PW samples from two shale gas production wells were used in this study. Each treatment unit was first designed and tested to quantify its treatment efficiency, and its chemical and energy requirements. In addition, a process model was developed and model simulations were conducted based on the experimental results and literature data to optimize the treatment process. A techno-economic analysis was conducted to quantify chemical and energy savings as well as production of 10-lb brine as a saleable product. With the field-collected BDW and PW samples, mixing experiments determined a volumetric mixing ratio 10:1 (BDW:PW) resulted in the best performance of multivalent ions removal and largest chemical savings for softening. Softening of the BDW/PW mixtures using alkaline chemicals (Na 2 CO 3 and NaOH) achieved 95%-100% removal of scaling-forming cations (Ca, Mg, Fe, Ba, Sr) and 60% of silicon, and 10% of total organic carbon (TOC). The mixing and softening treatments yielded an effluent with total dissolved solids (TDS) concentration of 23 g/L. Activated carbon (AC) filtration removed TOC to a low level (< 3 mg/L) and further removed remaining scale-forming divalent metals and silica from the softened water. The AC filtration resulted in a slight reduction of TDS from 23 g/L to 20 g/L, leaving behind only mostly monovalent ions (i.e., sodium and chloride) in the filtered water. These pretreatments yielded a feed water that met the criteria of the downstream reverse osmosis (RO) to prevent membrane fouling. A cross-flow RO system was used to further concentrate the TDS of the AC effluent. Various factors including TDS, pH, and applied pressure were examined and optimal conditions were determined for the co-treatment process. An integrated process consisting of mixing, softening, AC filtration and RO was used to treat a continuous flow (0.25 – 1.2 L/min, or 0.07 – 0.32 gpm) and successfully generated RO permeate as product water (TDS < 0.5 g/L) for reuse in cooling operation, and a concentrate (TDS ~ 45 g/L) to be further treated in a thermal desalination unit. These flow rates meet the FOA’s criterion of 0.01 – 1 gpm. Overall, the co-treatment of BDW/PW allowed shorter ramp-up time compared to treatment of BDW alone. It resulted in 40% and 55% savings of Na 2 CO 3(s) and NaOH, respectively, compared to treating the BDW and PW individually for the same level of softening. The co-treatment also resulted in a 29% energy saving compared to treatment of BDW only for the level of TDS concentration. A thermal desalination system was designed using CFD simulations and manufactured in the WVU Innovation Hub for further treatment of the RO concentrate to generate 10-lb brine. The system has a design flow rate of 2 gpm and has been successfully tested. A bench-scale brine electrolysis system was developed for on-site generation of chlorine/hypochlorite (Cl 2 /OCl - ) and caustic soda (NaOH) as useful chemicals for the co-treatment process. Using salt solutions (0.5 M and 1 M), the system achieved faradaic efficiencies of 93%-97% and 70%-77% for caustic soda and chlorine/hypochlorite generation, respectively. An economic analysis showed that the electricity costs for on-site generation of these chemicals were significantly lower than the chemical prices offered by suppliers. An industrial-scale process model consisting of mixing, softening, AC filtration, RO, thermal desalination, and brine electrolysis was developed using the Aspen Plus V9 in conjunction with Aspen Custom Modeler V9. The model serves as a solvable Aspen Plus model and as basis to form the costing infrastructure. In addition, techno-economic analysis considering capital, operating, and transportation costs was conducted. An optimization solution showed that produced water for mixing is still advantageous in low quantities. The optimum solution approaches a leveled cost of water (LCW) of 2 $/m 3 which becomes cost competitive with nominal water treatment prices.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Biomass burning aerosol radiative effects in the Southeast Atlantic depend strongly on meteorological forcing method

Biomass burning aerosols (BBAs) from African fires may strongly impact Earth’s radiation budget in the southeast Atlantic (SEA), but the sign and magnitude of the overall radiative effect (RE) remain uncertain. Aerosol–climate models are needed to separately quantify direct, indirect, and semi-direct REs. Here, we evaluate improved simulations with the UK Met Office's Unified Model and explore REs resulting from various methods used to match observed meteorology (nudging or running forecasts reinitialized at different frequencies). REs are calculated as differences in radiative fluxes between simulations with and without smoke emissions and with and without aerosol absorption. All model setups agree on net warming for the SEA dominated by the direct effect. Simulated smoke, clouds, and the direct effect agree better with observations than previous studies using the same model, though biases in aerosol extinction and liquid water path remain. Changes in cloud droplet number concentration due to BBA self-lofting influence how cleanly we can separate cloud effects into semi-direct and indirect effects. Total RE, which remains unaffected, ranges from +3.0 to +7.9 W m −2 . The 4.9 W m −2 spread arises mainly from simulated semi-direct effects. Forecasts three days long or less probably do not allow time for plausible differences in boundary layer properties due to semi-direct effects to accumulate. Free running simulations with and without smoke accumulate differences in meteorology that are likely spurious “butterfly effects”. We recommend future research quantifying BBA REs over weeks to months to use meteorological forcing techniques that allow aerosol absorption to affect the boundary layer.

Giuffrida, Eric [Carnegie Mellon University, Pitts↗

Plume mechanics and stratocumulus convection

The First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) marine stratocumulus Intensive Field Observation (IFO) held in July, 1987 produced a data set that is far more comprehensive than data sets from previous stratocumulus experiments. One exciting new development was the use of the 10.6 micron lidar system for cloud-top mapping that was available on the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Electra. This system provided a unique look at the small scales of the turbulence in the clouds, images of the turbulent structures that are quantitatively revealed by conditional sampling (e.g., Khalsa and Greenhut, 1987). The behavior of these updrafts and downdrafts is central to the dynamics of the stratocumulus-topped marine boundary layer. FIRE's objectives of understanding cloud dynamics and how they affect the cloud optical depth - which, in turn, is the crucial factor in determining the clouds' albedo - therefore require the investigation of these drafts. Given here are initial results from a simple model capable of simulating moist, entraining plumes that are subject to water phase changes and radiative heating and cooling. These results correspond, therefore, to the 'dry cloud' case discussed by Lilly and Schubert (1980). The model's simplicity limits the realism of the results - the plumes are assumed not to interact, for example - but the role of radiative processes in influencing the plume dynamics is clear. Also revealed is the role the plumes play is maintaining the cloud-top inversion. The model equations and methodology used, and qualitative results are given.

Hanson, Howard P.↗

Toxicological Risks During Human Space Exploration

The goal of toxicological risk assessment of human space flight is to identify and quantify significant risks to astronaut health from air pollution inside the vehicle or habitat, and to develop a strategy for control of those risks. The approach to completing a toxicological risk assessment involves data and experience on the frequency and severity of toxicological incidents that have occurred during space flight. Control of these incidents depends on being able to understand their cause from in-flight and ground-based analysis of air samples, crew reports of air quality, and known failures in containment of toxic chemicals. Toxicological risk assessment in exploration missions must be based on an evaluation of the unique toxic hazards presented by the habitat location. For example, lunar and Martian dust must be toxicologically evaluated to determine the appropriate control measures for exploration missions. Experience with near-earth flights has shown that the toxic products from fires present the highest risk to crew health from air pollution. Systems and payload leaks also present a significant hazard. The health risk from toxicity associated with materials offgassing or accumulation of human metabolites is generally well controlled. Early tests of lunar and Martian dust simulants have shown that each posses the potential to cause fibrosis in the lung in a murine model. Toxicological risks from air pollutants in space habitats originate from many sources. A number of risks have been identified through near-earth operations; however, the evaluation of additional new risks present during exploration missions will be a challenge.

James, John T.↗

Thermal Fault Tolerance Analysis of Carbon Fiber Rope Barrier Systems for Use in the Reusable Solid Rocket Motor ( RSRM) Nozzle Joints

Carbon Fiber Rope (CFR) thermal barrier systems are being considered for use in several RSRM (Reusable Solid Rocket Motor) nozzle joints as a replacement for the current assembly gap close-out process/design. This study provides for development and test verification of analysis methods used for flow-thermal modeling of a CFR thermal barrier subject to fault conditions such as rope combustion gas blow-by and CFR splice failure. Global model development is based on a 1-D (one dimensional) transient volume filling approach where the flow conditions are calculated as a function of internal 'pipe' and porous media 'Darcy' flow correlations. Combustion gas flow rates are calculated for the CFR on a per-linear inch basis and solved simultaneously with a detailed thermal-gas dynamic model of a local region of gas blow by (or splice fault). Effects of gas compressibility, friction and heat transfer are accounted for the model. Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) solutions of the fault regions are used to characterize the local flow field, quantify the amount of free jet spreading and assist in the determination of impingement film coefficients on the nozzle housings. Gas to wall heat transfer is simulated by a large thermal finite element grid of the local structure. The employed numerical technique loosely couples the FE (Finite Element) solution with the gas dynamics solution of the faulted region. All free constants that appear in the governing equations are calibrated by hot fire sub-scale test. The calibrated model is used to make flight predictions using motor aft end environments and timelines. Model results indicate that CFR barrier systems provide a near 'vented joint' style of pressurization. Hypothetical fault conditions considered in this study (blow by, splice defect) are relatively benign in terms of overall heating to nozzle metal housing structures.

Clayton, J. Louie↗

A Process-Model Perspective on Recent Changes in the Carbon Cycle of North America

Continental North America has been found to be a carbon (C) sink over recent decades by multiple studies employing a variety of estimation approaches. However, several key questions and uncertainties remain with these assessments. Here we used results from an ensemble of 19 state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation models from the TRENDYv9 project to improve these estimates and study the drivers of its interannual variability. Our results show that North America has been a C sink with a magnitude of 0.37 ± 0.38 (mean and one standard deviation) PgC year−1 for the period 2000–2019 (0.31 and 0.44 PgC year−1 in each decade); split into 0.18 ± 0.12 PgC year−1 in Canada (0.15 and 0.20), 0.16 ± 0.17 in the United States (0.14 and 0.17), 0.02 ± 0.05 PgC year−1 in Mexico (0.02 and 0.02) and 0.01 ± 0.02 in Central America and the Caribbean (0.01 and 0.01). About 57% of the new C assimilated by terrestrial ecosystems is allocated into vegetation, 30% into soils, and 13% into litter. Losses of C due to fire account for 41% of the interannual variability of the mean net biome productivity for all North America in the model ensemble. Finally, we show that drought years (e.g., 2002) have the potential to shift the region to a small net C source in the simulations (−0.02 ± 0.46 PgC year−1). Our results highlight the importance of identifying the major drivers of the interannual variability of the continental-scale land C cycle along with the spatial distribution of local sink-source dynamics.

Guillermo Murray-Tortarolo↗