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At least 955 records · Page 53

MIT Haystack Observatory Analysis Center Report

The data from twenty years of the NCEP numerical weather model have been used to calculate the IMF hydrostatic mapping function for several sites distributed in latitude from -66 degrees to +78 degrees. Comparison of heights estimated with the NMF hydrostatic mapping function demonstrates that using NMFh results in height errors at annual and semi-annual periods with amplitudes as large as approximately 8 mm and 4 mm, respectively, when data down to 5 degrees are included. The errors are smallest at the equator and increase towards the poles.

Niell, Arthur↗

Assessing the Effect of Spaceflight on the Propensity for Astronauts to Develop Disk Herniation

BACKGROUND: A previous study [1] reported that the instantaneous risk of developing a Herniated Nucleus Pulposus (HNP) was higher in astronauts who had flown at least one mission, as compared with those in the corps who had not yet flown. However, the study only analyzed time to HNP after the first mission (if any) and did not account for the possible effects of multiple missions. While many HNP's occurred well into astronauts' careers or in some cases years after retirement, the higher incidence of HNPs relatively soon after completion of space missions appears to indicate that spaceflight may lead to an increased risk of HNP. The purpose of this study was to support the Human System Risk Board assessment of back pain, evaluate the risk of injury due to dynamic loads, and update the previous dataset which contained events up to December 31, 2006. METHODS: Data was queried from the electronic medical record and provided by the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health. The data included all 330 United States astronauts from 1959 through February 2014. Cases were confirmed by Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Computerized Tomography, Myelography, operative findings, or through clinical confirmation with a neurologist or neurosurgeon. In this analysis, astronauts who had an HNP at selection into the corps or had an HNP diagnosis prior to their first flight were excluded. The statistical challenges in using the available data to separate effects of spaceflight from those associated with general astronaut training and lifestyle on propensity to develop HNPs are many. The primary outcome is reported date of first HNP (if any), which at best is only an approximation to the actual time of occurrence. To properly analyze this data with a survival analysis model, one must also know the "exposure" time - i.e. how long each astronaut has been at risk for developing an HNP. If an HNP is reported soon after a mission, is it mission caused or general? If the former, exposure time should be counted from the time of landing (assuming the risk of HNP occurring during a mission is zero). If the latter, exposure time should be counted from the time of selection; however we can't directly know which one to use. In our analysis we take both of these possibilities into account with a competing risks model, wherein two distinct stochastic processes are going on: TG = time to HNP (general) and TS = time to HNP (spaceflight). Under this type of model, whichever of these occurs first is what we observe; in other words we don't observe TG or TS, only min(TG, TS). Here, we parameterized the model in terms of separate Weibull hazard functions for each process and estimated all parameters using maximum likelihood. In addition, we allowed for a "cured fraction" - i.e. the possibility that some astronauts may never develop an HNP. RESULTS: Results will include a depiction of the competing hazard functions as well as a probability curve for the relative likelihood that an HNP reported at a given time after a mission is actually mission caused. Other factors, such as dwell time in microgravity and vehicle landing environment will be explored. An overall assessment as to whether spaceflight truly exacerbates HNP risk will be made.

Feiveson, A. H.↗

Extraction of the specific shear viscosity of quark-gluon plasma from two-particle transverse momentum correlations

The specific shear viscosity, η/s, of the quark-gluon plasma formed in ultrarelativistic heavy-ion collisions at RHIC and LHC is estimated based on the progressive longitudinal broadening of transverse momentum two-particle correlators, G 2 , reported as a function of collision centrality by the STAR and ALICE experiments. Estimates are computed as a function of collision centrality using the Gavin ansatz which relates the G 2 longitudinal broadening to the specific shear viscosity. Freeze out times required for the use of the ansatz are computed using a linear fit of freeze out times reported as a function of the cubic root of the charged particle pseudorapidity density (dN ch /dη) 1/3 . Estimates of η/s based on ALICE data exhibit little to no dependence on collision centrality at LHC energy, while estimates obtained from STAR data hint that η/s might be a function of collision centrality at top RHIC energy.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

High-dimensional multivariate autoregressive model estimation of human electrophysiological data using fMRI priors

Multivariate autoregressive (MVAR) model estimation enables assessment of causal interactions in brain networks. However, accurately estimating MVAR models for high-dimensional electrophysiological recordings is challenging due to the extensive data requirements. Hence, the applicability of MVAR models for study of brain behavior over hundreds of recording sites has been very limited. Prior work has focused on different strategies for selecting a subset of important MVAR coefficients in the model to reduce the data requirements of conventional least-squares estimation algorithms. Here we propose incorporating prior information, such as resting state functional connectivity derived from functional magnetic resonance imaging, into MVAR model estimation using a weighted group least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regularization strategy. The proposed approach is shown to reduce data requirements by a factor of two relative to the recently proposed group LASSO method of Endemann et al (Neuroimage 254:119057, 2022) while resulting in models that are both more parsimonious and more accurate. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated using simulation studies of physiologically realistic MVAR models derived from intracranial electroencephalography (iEEG) data. The robustness of the approach to deviations between the conditions under which the prior information and iEEG data is obtained is illustrated using models from data collected in different sleep stages. This approach allows accurate effective connectivity analyses over short time scales, facilitating investigations of causal interactions in the brain underlying perception and cognition during rapid transitions in behavioral state.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Generalized Multiscale Finite Element Methods with energy minimizing oversampling

In this work, we propose a general concept for constructing multiscale basis functions within Generalized Multiscale Finite Element Method, which uses oversampling and stable decomposition. The oversampling refers to using larger regions in constructing multiscale basis functions and stable decomposition allows estimating the local errors. The analysis of multiscale methods involves decomposing the error by coarse regions, where each error contribution is estimated. In this estimate, we often use oversampling techniques to achieve a fast convergence. We demonstrate our concepts in the mixed, the Interior Penalty Discontinuous Galerkin, and Hybridized Discontinuous Galerkin discretizations. One of the important features of the proposed basis functions is that they can be used in online Generalized Multiscale Finite Element Method, where one constructs multiscale basis functions using residuals. In these problems, it is important to achieve a fast convergence, which can be guaranteed if we have a stable decomposition. In our numerical results, we present examples for both offline and online multiscale basis functions. Our numerical results show that one can achieve a fast convergence when using online basis functions. Moreover, we observe that coupling using Hybridized Discontinuous Galerkin provides a better accuracy compared with Interior Penalty Discontinuous Galerkin, which is due to using multiscale glueing functions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Automating methods for estimating metabolite volatility

The volatility of metabolites can influence their biological roles and inform optimal methods for their detection. Yet, volatility information is not readily available for the large number of described metabolites, limiting the exploration of volatility as a fundamental trait of metabolites. Here, we adapted methods to estimate vapor pressure from the functional group composition of individual molecules (SIMPOL.1) to predict the gas-phase partitioning of compounds in different environments. We implemented these methods in a new open pipeline called volcalc that uses chemoinformatic tools to automate these volatility estimates for all metabolites in an extensive and continuously updated pathway database: the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) that connects metabolites, organisms, and reactions. We first benchmark the automated pipeline against a manually curated data set and show that the same category of volatility (e.g., nonvolatile, low, moderate, high) is predicted for 93% of compounds. We then demonstrate how volcalc might be used to generate and test hypotheses about the role of volatility in biological systems and organisms. Specifically, we estimate that 3.4 and 26.6% of compounds in KEGG have high volatility depending on the environment (soil vs. clean atmosphere, respectively) and that a core set of volatiles is shared among all domains of life (30%) with the largest proportion of kingdom-specific volatiles identified in bacteria. With volcalc , we lay a foundation for uncovering the role of the volatilome using an approach that is easily integrated with other bioinformatic pipelines and can be continually refined to consider additional dimensions to volatility. The volcalc package is an accessible tool to help design and test hypotheses on volatile metabolites and their unique roles in biological systems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Scale-invariant Cosmology and CMB Temperatures as a Function of Redshifts

Cosmological models assuming the scale invariance of the macroscopic empty space show an accelerated expansion, without calling for some unknown particles. Several comparisons between models and observations (tests on distances, m−z diagram, Ω{sub Λ} versus Ω{sub m} plot, age versus H {sub 0}, H(z) versus z, transition braking-acceleration) have indicated an impressive agreement. We pursue the tests with the CMB temperatures T{sub CMB} as a function of redshifts z. CO molecules in DLA systems provide the most accurate excitation temperatures T{sub exc} up to z≈2.7. Such data need corrections for local effects like particle collisions, optical depths, UV radiation, etc., We estimate these corrections as a function of the (CO/H{sub 2}) ratios from far-UV observations of CO molecules in the Galaxy. The results show that it is not sufficient to apply theoretical collisional corrections to get the proper values of T{sub CMB} versus z. Thus, the agreement often found with the standard model may be questioned. The T{sub CMB}(z) relation needs further careful attention and the same for the scale-invariant cosmology in view of its positive tests.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Mortality attributable to PM 2.5 from wildland fires in California from 2008 to 2018

In California, wildfire risk and severity have grown substantially in the last several decades. Research has characterized extensive adverse health impacts from exposure to wildfire-attributable fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), but few studies have quantified long-term outcomes, and none have used a wildfire-specific chronic dose-response mortality coefficient. Here, we quantified the mortality burden for PM 2.5 exposure from California fires from 2008 to 2018 using Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system wildland fire PM 2.5 estimates. We used a concentration-response function for PM 2.5 , applying ZIP code–level mortality data and an estimated wildfire-specific dose-response coefficient accounting for the likely toxicity of wildfire smoke. We estimate a total of 52,480 to 55,710 premature deaths are attributable to wildland fire PM 2.5 over the 11-year period with respect to two exposure scenarios, equating to an economic impact of $\$432$ to $\$456$ billion. These findings extend evidence on climate-related health impacts, suggesting that wildfires account for a greater mortality and economic burden than indicated by earlier studies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Proposed method for determining the thickness of glass in solar collector panels

An analytical method was developed for determining the minimum thickness for simply supported, rectangular glass plates subjected to uniform normal pressure environmental loads such as wind, earthquake, snow, and deadweight. The method consists of comparing an analytical prediction of the stress in the glass panel to a glass breakage stress determined from fracture mechanics considerations. Based on extensive analysis using the nonlinear finite element structural analysis program ARGUS, design curves for the structural analysis of simply supported rectangular plates were developed. These curves yield the center deflection, center stress and corner stress as a function of a dimensionless parameter describing the load intensity. A method of estimating the glass breakage stress as a function of a specified failure rate, degree of glass temper, design life, load duration time, and panel size is also presented.

Moore, D. M.↗

Calculating Probability Densities with Homotopy and Applications to Particle Filters

In this work, we explore a homotopy sampling procedure and its generalization, loosely based on importance sampling, known as annealed importance sampling. The procedure makes use of a known probability distribution to find, via homotopy, the unknown normalization of a target distribution, as well as samples of the target distribution. We propose a reformulation of the method that leads to a rejection sampling alternative. Estimates of the error as a function of homotopy stages and sample averages are derived for the algorithmic version of the method. These estimates are useful in making computational efficiency decisions on how the calculation should proceed, given a computer architecture. Consideration is given to how the procedure can be adapted to Bayesian stationary and nonstationary estimation problems. The connection between homotopy sampling and thermodynamic integration is made. Emphasis is placed on the non-stationary problems, and in particular, on a sequential estimation technique known as particle filtering. It is shown that a modification of the particle filter framework to include the homotopy process can improve the computational robustness of particle filters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Attitude determination and parameter estimation using vector observations - Application

This paper presents tests of a new method for the simultaneous estimation of spacecraft attitude and sensor biases, based on a quaternion estimation algorithm minimizing Wahba's loss function. The new method is compared with a conventional batch least-squares differential correction algorithm. The estimates are based on data from strapdown gyros and star trackers, simulated with varying levels of Gaussian noise for both inertially-fixed and earth-pointing attitudes. Both algorithms solve for the spacecraft attitude and the gyro drift rate biases. In the majority of tests performed, the two methods converge to the same estimates in the same number of iterations, but the new algorithm requires about 60 percent more computational effort. Some cases were found in which the new method converges in fewer iterations than the differential correction, and some for which the differential correction requires fewer iterations.

Markley, F. Landis↗

The Uncertainty of Crop Yield Projections Is Reduced by Improved Temperature Response Functions

Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for is greater than 50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 C to 33 C. We derived a set of new temperature response functions that when substituted in four wheat models reduced the error in grain yield simulations across seven global sites with different temperature regimes by 19% to 50% (42% average). We anticipate the improved temperature responses to be a key step to improve modelling of crops under rising temperature and climate change, leading to higher skill of crop yield projections.

Wang, Enli↗

Lamost observations in the Kepler field. Analysis of the stellar parameters measured with LASP based on low-resolution spectra

All 14 subfields of the Kepler field were observed at least once with the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (lamost, Xinglong Observatory, China) during the 2012–2014 observation seasons. There are 88,628 reduced spectra with a signal-to-noise ratio in the g band (S/N{sub g}) ≥ 6 after the first round (2012–2014) of observations of the lamost– Kepler project (LK-project). By adopting the upgraded version of the lamost Stellar Parameter pipeline (lasp), we have determined the atmospheric parameters (T{sub eff}, logg, and [Fe/H]) and heliocentric radial velocity v {sub rad} for 51,406 stars with 61,226 spectra. Compared with the atmospheric parameters derived from both high-resolution spectroscopy and asteroseismology for common stars in Huber et al., an external calibration of lasp atmospheric parameters was made, leading to the determination of the external errors for giants and dwarfs. Multiple spectroscopic observations of the same objects in the LK-project were used to estimate the internal uncertainties of the atmospheric parameters as a function of S/N{sub g} with the unbiased estimation method. The lasp atmospheric parameters were calibrated based on both the external and internal uncertainties for the giants and dwarfs. A general statistical analysis of the stellar parameters leads to the discovery of 106 candidate metal-poor stars, 9 candidate very metal-poor stars, and 18 candidate high-velocity stars. Fitting formulae were obtained segmentally for both the calibrated atmospheric parameters of the LK-project and the Kepler Input Catalog (KIC) parameters with common stars. The calibrated atmospheric parameters and radial velocities of the LK-project will be useful for studying stars in the Kepler field.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An Analysis of Kinetic Response Variability

Studies evaluating variability of force as a function of absolute force generated are synthesized. Inconsistencies in reported estimates of this relationship are viewed as a function of experimental constraints imposed. Typically, within-subject force variability increases at a negative accelerating rate with equal increments in force produced. Current pulse-step and impulse variability models are unable to accommodate this description, although the notion of efficiency is suggested as a useful construct to explain the description outlined.

Hancock, P. A.↗

Three-point correlations of galaxy clusters

A relation between two- and three-point correlation functions similar to that of galaxies is presently established by estimating the irreducible angular three-point correlation function of Abell clusters in distance classes 5 and 6, for Galactic latitudes below 40 deg. The shape of the three-point correlation function is fully consistent with the quadratic scaling law found by Groth and Peebles (1977) for galaxies. The three-point correlation function is inconsistent with the expectations from biasing.

Toth, Gabor↗

ACTS (Advanced Communications Technology Satellite) Propagation Experiment: Preprocessing Software User's Manual

The preprocessing software manual describes the Actspp program originally developed to observe and diagnose Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) propagation terminal/receiver problems. However, it has been quite useful for automating the preprocessing functions needed to convert the terminal output to useful attenuation estimates. Prior to having data acceptable for archival functions, the individual receiver system must be calibrated and the power level shifts caused by ranging tone modulation must be received. Actspp provides three output files: the daylog, the diurnal coefficient file, and the file that contains calibration information.

Crane, Robert K.↗

Online Prediction of Battery Discharge and Estimation of Parasitic Loads for an Electric Aircraft

Predicting whether or not vehicle batteries contain sufficient charge to support operations over the remainder of a given flight plan is critical for electric aircraft. This paper describes an approach for identifying upper and lower uncertainty bounds on predictions that aircraft batteries will continue to meet output power and voltage requirements over the remainder of a flight plan. Battery discharge prediction is considered here in terms of the following components; (i) online battery state of charge estimation; (ii) prediction of future battery power demand as a function of an aircraft flight plan; (iii) online estimation of additional parasitic battery loads; and finally, (iv) estimation of flight plan safety. Substantial uncertainty is considered to be an irremovable part of the battery discharge prediction problem. However, high-confidence estimates of flight plan safety or lack of safety are shown to be generated from even highly uncertain prognostic predictions.

Battery Discharge Prediction↗

Numerical evaluation of photosensitive tracers as a strategy for separating surface and subsurface transient storage in streams

For this work, we numerically evaluated photosensitive tracers as a potential strategy for separating the effects of surface and hyporheic storage zones (SSZs and HSZs, respectively) on stream corridor transport. Correctly separating HSZ and SSZ effects is critical to estimating the hydro-biogeochemical function of a stream because HSZs and SSZs expose solutes to significantly different biogeochemical conditions, like sunlight exposure, microbial processes, and oxygen availability. Our numerical experiments used a multiscale river-corridor transport model implemented in the ATS code, which accommodates multiple storage zones with distinct travel time distributions and biogeochemical reactions. For parameter inferences, we used Bayesian inverse modeling. We found that breakthrough curves for photo-decaying tracers from day and night injection can delineate surface and hyporheic transient storage contributions, but only when interpreted jointly through a two-storage zone model. Numerical experiments that used only daytime injection or interpreted breakthrough curves with a single storage zone model yielded good fit to breakthrough curves, but parameter estimates were biased and controlling processes misattributed, examples of good model fits for the wrong reasons. Using those biased parameter estimates in reactive transport simulations resulted in significantly different projections of denitrification, which underscores the potential for stream function to be mischaracterized if tracer tests are interpreted through an inappropriately simplified model for transient storage. More generally, this study highlights the role of modeling in evaluating the experimental design and identifying the potential of system mischaracterization and its implications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗