Machine Learning-Driven Multiscale Modeling: Bridging the Scales with a Next-Generation Simulation Infrastructure
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Abstract Co‐locating solar photovoltaics with vegetation could provide a sustainable solution to meeting growing food and energy demands. However, studies quantifying multiple co‐benefits resulting from maintaining vegetation at utility‐scale solar power plants are limited. We monitored the microclimate, soil moisture, panel temperature, electricity generation and soil properties at a utility‐scale solar facility in a continental climate with different site management practices. The compounding effect of photovoltaic arrays and vegetation may homogenize soil moisture distribution and provide greater soil temperature buffer against extreme temperatures. The vegetated solar areas had significantly higher soil moisture, carbon, and other nutrients compared to bare solar areas. Agrivoltaics in agricultural areas with carbon debt can be an effective climate mitigation strategy along with revitalizing agricultural soils, generating income streams from fallow land, and providing pollinator habitats. However, the benefits of vegetation cooling effects on electricity generation are rather site‐specific and depend on the background climate and soil properties. Overall, our findings provide foundational data for site preservation along with targeting site‐specific co‐benefits, and for developing climate resilient and resource conserving agrivoltaic systems.
The US Western Interconnection is facing unprecedented challenges in the form of less predictable peak demand, increasingly diverse generating resources, and fast-growing loads due to the onset of artificial intelligence, hyperscale computing, and electrification. Projecting where future generation may be developed is critical to maintaining a robust and resilient electric grid under this mounting uncertainty and variability. Using an integrated multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that links a human-Earth systems model, an hourly load model, a geospatial power plant siting model, and an hourly grid operations model, we evaluate the power plant landscape evolution under eight alternative futures between 2020 and 2055. These futures represent a wide but plausible range of atmospheric conditions, emissions constraints, and economic, technological, and population growth assumptions. We find that local-level development can vary substantially both by generation type and capacity buildout across these futures. Specific regions of the Western Interconnection are projected to see large amounts of capacity development regardless of the future scenario. We additionally determine that projected power plant locations are more heavily influenced by the cost to interconnect to the electric grid than the locational energy value.
Climate change, energy system transitions, and socioeconomic change are compounding influences affecting the growth of electricity demand. While energy efficiency initiatives and distributed resources can address a significant amount of this demand, the United States will likely still need new utility-scale generation resources. The energy sector uses capacity expansion planning models to determine the aggregate need for new generation, but these models are typically at the state or regional scale and are not equipped to address the wide range of location- and technology-specific issues that are increasingly a factor in power plant siting. To help address these challenges, we have developed the Geospatial Raster Input Data for Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility (GRIDCERF) data package, a high-resolution product to evaluate siting suitability for renewable and non-renewable power plants in the conterminous United States. GRIDCERF offers 264 suitability layers for use with 56 power plant technologies in a harmonized format that can be easily ingested by geospatially-enabled modeling software allowing for customization to robustly address science objectives when evaluating varying future conditions.
5-Hydroxymethyl furfural (HMF) is a platform chemical, which can be derived from lignocellulosic biomass, and used for production of liquid fuels and polymers. We demonstrate a process for production of HMF using sequential enzymatic and catalytic reactions of glucose to synthesize HMF, and simulated-moving-bed (SMB) separation to purify HMF. The adsorption thermodynamic parameters of glucose, fructose, and HMF on a commercial chromatography resin are experimentally determined for modeling the SMB-based HMF production process. The experimental data are used to develop a rigorous process model and then estimate the cost of production. Chromatographic separation of HMF has 16% lower operating costs compared to an extraction-based process and has a minimum selling price of approximately $1478 per ton. We demonstrate that the HMF process can be integrated with the high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) process, and we performed analyses considering two systems including construction of a new integrated facility and retrofitting an existing HFCS facility to produce HMF. Our analyses suggest that the latter approach is a promising short-term low-risk strategy to advance the HMF production technology to commercial scale.
Here, we present a computational framework that facilitates the construction, instantiation, and analysis of large-scale optimization and simulation applications of coupled energy networks. The framework integrates the optimization modeling package PLASMO and the simulation package DMNetwork (built around PETSc). These tools use a common graphbased abstraction that enables us to achieve compatibility between data structures and to build applications that use network models of different physical fidelity. We also describe how to embed these tools within complex computational workflows using SWIFT, which is a tool that facilitates parallel execution of multiple simulation runs and management of input and output data. We discuss how to use these capabilities to target coupled natural gas and electricity systems.
The former CMS Run 2 High Level Trigger (HLT) farm is one of the largest contributors to CMS compute resources, providing about 25k job slots for offline computing. This CPU farm was initially employed as an opportunistic resource, exploited during inter-fill periods, in the LHC Run 2. Since then, it has become a nearly transparent extension of the CMS capacity at CERN, being located on-site at the LHC interaction point 5 (P5), where the CMS detector is installed. This resource has been configured to support the execution of critical CMS tasks, such as prompt detector data reconstruction. It can therefore be used in combination with the dedicated Tier 0 capacity at CERN, in order to process and absorb peaks in the stream of data coming from the CMS detector. The initial configuration for this resource, based on statically configured VMs, provided the required level of functionality. However, regular operations of this cluster revealed certain limitations compared to the resource provisioning and use model employed in the case of WLCG sites. A new configuration, based on a vacuum-like model, has been implemented for this resource in order to solve the detected shortcomings. This paper reports about this redeployment work on the permanent cloud for an enhanced support to CMS offline computing, comparing the former and new models’ respective functionalities, along with the commissioning effort for the new setup.
Large-scale scientific collaborations like ATLAS, Belle II, CMS, DUNE, and others involve hundreds of research institutes and thousands of researchers spread across the globe. These experiments generate petabytes of data, with volumes soon expected to reach exabytes. Consequently, there is a growing need for computation, including structured data processing from raw data to consumer-ready derived data, extensive Monte Carlo simulation campaigns, and a wide range of end-user analysis. To manage these computational and storage demands, centralized workflow and data management systems are implemented. However, decisions regarding data placement and payload allocation are often made disjointly and via heuristic means. A significant obstacle in adopting more effective heuristic or AI-driven solutions is the absence of a quick and reliable introspective dynamic model to evaluate and refine alternative approaches. In this study, we aim to develop such an interactive system using real-world data. By examining job execution records from the PanDA workflow management system, we have pinpointed key performance indicators such as queuing time, error rate, and the extent of remote data access. The dataset includes five months of activity. Additionally, we are creating a generative AI model to simulate time series of payloads, which incorporate visible features like category, event count, and submitting group, as well as hidden features like the total computational load—derived from existing PanDA records and computing site capabilities. These hidden features, which are not visible to job allocators, whether heuristic or AI-driven, influence factors such as queuing times and data movement.
The Monte Carlo Transport Project at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory develops two Monte Carlo transport codes used in production by a sizable internal user community. Mercury is a Monte Carlo particle transport code used to model the interaction of neutrons, gammas, and light ions with a material. Imp is an implicit Monte Carlo thermal x-ray photon transport code used to model the interaction of x-ray photons with a material. This paper describes the two codes and highlights recent developments.
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We model the effect of plug-in electric vehicle (EV) adoption on U.S. power system generator capacity investment, operations, and emissions through 2050 by estimating power systems outcomes under a range of EV adoption trajectory scenarios. Our EV adoption scenarios are informed by 1) an Energy Information Administration scenario with no policy intervention, 2) EV growth expected under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), 3) a Biden Administration 50% EV sales target by 2030, 4) the Environmental Protection Agency’s projections under vehicle emissions standards, and 5) the International Energy Agency’s roadmap to Net Zero by 2050. We find across these scenarios that increasing EV adoption induces investment in new wind, solar, storage, and natural gas capacity, affecting power generation mix and emissions. The net effect of increasing EV adoption beyond our IRA base case is to increase power sector emissions by about 5 mtCO 2 eq per EV-year in 2026 (comparable to displaced gasoline vehicle combustion emissions), but this effect rapidly drops to annual levels below 1 mtCO 2 eq per EV-year by 2032 and continues below this level through 2050. Consequential effects of EV adoption vary regionally, with most regions primarily increasing wind or solar capacity and some regions primarily increasing natural gas capacity, even in 2050. Our national emissions estimates per EV-year are relatively robust to the level of EV adoption beyond our baseline and to variation in assumptions about power systems, EV behavior, and policy.
Particle accelerators are an important tool to study the fundamental properties of elementary particles. Currently the highest energy accelerator is the LHC at CERN, in Geneva, Switzerland. Each of its four major detectors, such as the CMS detector, produces dozens of Petabytes of data per year to be analyzed by a large international collaboration. The processing is carried out on the Worldwide LHC Computing Grid, that spans over more than 170 compute centers around the world and is used by a number of particle physics experiments. Recently the LHC experiments were encouraged to make increasing use of HPC resources. While Grid resources are homogeneous with respect to the used Grid middleware, HPC installations can be very different in their setup. In order to integrate HPC resources into the highly automatized processing setups of the CMS experiment a number of challenges need to be addressed. For processing, access to primary data and metadata as well as access to the software is required. At Grid sites all this is achieved via a number of services that are provided by each center. However at HPC sites many of these capabilities cannot be easily provided and have to be enabled in the user space or enabled by other means. At HPC centers there are often restrictions regarding network access to remote services, which is again a severe limitation. The paper discusses a number of solutions and recent experiences by the CMS experiment to include HPC resources in processing campaigns.
The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) will employ a set of Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers (LArTPC) with a total mass of 40 kt as the main components of its Far Detector. In order to validate this technology and characterize the detector performance at full scale, an ambitious experimental program (called “protoDUNE”) has been initiated which includes a test of the large-scale prototypes for the single-phase and dual-phase LArTPC technologies, which will run in a beam at CERN. The total raw data volume that is slated to be collected during the scheduled 3-month beam run is estimated to be in excess of 2.5 PB for each detector. This data volume will require that the protoDUNE experiment carefully design the DAQ, data handling and data quality monitoring systems to be capable of dealing with challenges inherent with peta-scale data management while simultaneously fulfilling the requirements of disseminating the data to a worldwide collaboration and DUNE associated computing sites. Here in this paper, we present our approach to solving these problems by leveraging the design, expertise and components created for the LHC and Intensity Frontier experiments into a unified architecture that is capable of meeting the needs of protoDUNE.
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