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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 955 records · Page 53
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Using MODIS estimates of fractional snow cover area to improve streamflow forecasts in interior Alaska

Remotely sensed snow cover observations give an opportunity to improve operational snow melt and stream flow forecasting in remote regions. This is particularly true in Alaska, where remote basins and a spatially and temporally sparse gaging network plague efforts to understand and forecast the hydrology of subarctic boreal basins and where climate change is leading to rapid shifts in basin function. In this study,the operational framework employed by the United States (US) National Weather Service, including the Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center, is adapted to integrate Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) remotely sensed observations of fractional snow cover area (fSCA) to determine if these data improve streamflow forecasts in interior Alaska river basins. Two versions of MODIS fSCA are tested against a base case extent of snow cover derived by aerial depletion curves: the MODIS 10A1(MOD10A1) and the MODIS Snow Cover Area and Grain size (MODSCAG) product over the period 2000–2010. Observed runoff is compared to simulated runoff to calibrate both iterations of the model. MODIS-forced simulations haveimproved snow depletion timing compared with snow telemetry sites in the basins, with discernable increases in skill for the streamflow simulations.The MODSCAG fSCA version provides moderate increases in skill but is similar to the MOD10A1 results. The basins with the largest improvement in streamflow simulations have the sparsest streamflow observations.Considering the numerous low-quality gages (discontinuous, short, or unreliable) and ungauged systems throughout the high-latitude regions of the globe, this result is valuable and indicates the utility of the MODIS fSCAdata in these regions. Additionally, while improvements in predicted discharge values are subtle, the snow model better represents the physical conditions of the snow pack and therefore provides more robust simulations,which are consistent with the US National Weather Service's move toward a physically based National Water Model. Physically based models may also be more capable of adapting to changing climates than statistical models corrected to past regimes. This work provides direction for both the Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center and other forecast centers across the US to implement remote-sensing observations within their operational framework, to refine the representation of snow, and to improve streamflow forecasting skill in basins with few or poor-quality observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Basin Excavation, Lower Crust, Composition, and Bulk Moon Mass balance in Light of a Thin Crust

New lunar gravity results from GRAIL have been interpreted to reflect an overall thin and low-density lunar crust. Accordingly, crustal thickness has been modeled as ranging from 0 to 60 km, with thinnest crust at the locations of Crisium and Moscoviense basins and thickest crust in the central farside highlands. The thin crust has cosmochemical significance, namely in terms of implications for the Moon s bulk composition, especially refractory lithophile elements that are strongly concentrated in the crust. Wieczorek et al. concluded that the bulk Moon need not be enriched compared to Earth in refractory lithophile elements such as Al. Less Al in the crust means less Al has been extracted from the mantle, permitting relatively low bulk lunar mantle Al contents and low pre- and post-crust-extraction values for the mantle (or the upper mantle if only the upper mantle underwent LMO melting). Simple mass-balance calculations using the method of [4] suggests that the same conclusion might hold for Th and the entire suite of refractory lithophile elements that are incompatible in olivine and pyroxene, including the KREEP elements, that are likewise concentrated in the crust.

Jolliff, B. L.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Comparison of Vertical Surface Deformation Estimates Derived From Space-Based Gravimetry, Ground-Based GPS, and Model-Based Hydrologic Loading Over Snow-Dominated Watersheds in the United States

Spatiotemporal variability in Earth's terrestrial water storage (TWS) causes changes in surface deformation. The potential for using ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) vertical displacement observations for estimating TWS is explored through a comparison of vertical displacements derived from space-based gravimetric retrievals, ground-based GPS, and model-based hydrologic estimates. The study presented here focuses on two snow-dominated basins in the Western United States for the years 2003–2016. Seasonal variations are observed in the vertical displacements derived from all three data sets, and the variation is coherent with the changes in hydrologic loading. Good consistency is observed between any two of the three data sets with gravimetric retrievals and hydrologic model estimates providing the highest level of agreement (i.e., all examined stations with correlation coefficient R > 0.70). Vertical displacements derived from gravimetric retrievals and ground-based GPS yielded R > 0.70 for more than 89% of the stations. In addition, it is found that both GPS-derived and space-based, gravimetry-derived vertical displacements clearly reflected the impact of climate variation (i.e., heavy precipitation during 2010–2011 winter followed by prolonged drought). Vertical displacements derived from the hydrologic model highlighted the relatively large precipitation convergence phase during late 2010 to early 2011 at some stations but not the prolonged drought that followed. The results indicate that ground-based GPS observations of vertical displacement have the capability to capture variations in TWS changes, which can be systematically merged in conjunction with Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) into a land surface model to improve TWS estimates in a follow-up study.

Gaohong Yin↗
DOE OSTI2026

VIC-Global Parameter Dataset Sensitivity with the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model: Evaluating the importance of dynamic land surface parameters when using the VIC-Global parameter dataset

Accurate prediction of runoff is essential to water resources management, flood risk assessment, and ecosystem protection. However, many hydrological models still have relatively substantial limitations when representing the influence of land use and land cover (LULC) on runoff generation and routing. Changes in LULC, such as deforestation, urban expansion, agricultural intensification, and wetland loss, have been shown to alter the water balance at the land surface through fundamental hydrologic processes (e.g., interception, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and soil storage). However, it remains an open question what the exact magnitude and timing of these impacts are for the spatial and temporal scales commonly used in engineering applications. In this analysis we focus on one aspect of recent LULC change for assessing human impacts, which is urbanization. Specifically we seek to determine the impacts of urbanization on the magnitude and timing of surface runoff and baseflow in HUC-12 basins in Clark County, Nevada which has experienced rapid urbanization. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model with a widely used off-the-shelf dataset of land surface parameters, VIC-Global, both of which have been commonly used in the past for water and energy balance modeling for large scale hydrologic studies. We examine two scenarios where the first scenario removes all urbanized land cover and parameterizes those areas of the basins as barren or open shrubland. The second scenario tests the opposite case where all areas of the basins are classified as urban regardless of their present classification. The results from the VIC model show there is a low sensitivity for daily surface runoff between scenarios. The daily baseflow values indicate similar low sensitivity to the classification change during specific periods, but then have substantial differences during other period when large precipitation events are occurring. This is likely due to the assumed parameter values for the urban land cover classification made by the VIC-Global dataset. Using a static land cover parameterization is reasonable for large domain hydrology models that are being used for near-term planning horizons (<30 years). However, longer planning horizons where feedbacks between the atmosphere and land surface are important, especially in transient climate situations, considerations for how to update land surface parameters should be incorporated.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Effect of Char Loading on Reduction Kinetics of Cu-Based Oxygen Carriers in a Drop-Tube Fluidized-Bed Reactor at Temperatures from 850 to 1100 °C: Experiment and CFD Modeling

Chemical-looping combustion with oxygen uncoupling (CLOU) is a process using gaseous or solid hydrocarbon fuels and is a promising carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. In CLOU, combustion of the fuel is achieved through the release of gaseous O 2 from an oxygen carrier material such as CuO and is favored at high temperatures and low O 2 partial pressures. The primary objectives of this study were to (1) compare values for the apparent rate constant k ov ( T ) for the overall rate of reduction of a CuO carrier, either alone or in the presence of coal char obtained from the pyrolysis of Powder River Basin (PRB) coal, and (2) develop and validate a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model for the CuO/PRB coal char system based on known kinetics of the individual CuO and Cu 2 O reduction, combustion, and gasification reactions. Two oxygen carriers consisting of 20 wt % CuO/Al 2 O 3 and 9 wt % CuO/Al 2 O 3 were prepared by physical mixing and by incipient wetness impregnation (IWI), respectively. Kinetic analyses were conducted in the temperature range of 850–1100 °C. The CFD model typically reproduced experimental values of k ov ( T ) to within ±10%. We note the increase in k ov ( T ) caused by addition of only 0.075 g of PRB char per gram of CuO was modest at 1100 °C, but was more than 3-fold at 850 °C. Combustion and gasification of the coal char not only produced CO, opening another pathway for CuO reduction in addition to the CLOU reaction, but also resulted in the over-reduction of Cu 2 O to the undesired metallic Cu. Production of Cu metal increased with respect to char loading.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2013

Estimating Policy-Driven Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trajectories in California: The California Greenhouse Gas Inventory Spreadsheet (GHGIS) Model

A California Greenhouse Gas Inventory Spreadsheet (GHGIS) model was developed to explore the impact of combinations of state policies on state greenhouse gas (GHG) and regional criteria pollutant emissions. The model included representations of all GHG- emitting sectors of the California economy (including those outside the energy sector, such as high global warming potential gases, waste treatment, agriculture and forestry) in varying degrees of detail, and was carefully calibrated using available data and projections from multiple state agencies and other sources. Starting from basic drivers such as population, numbers of households, gross state product, numbers of vehicles, etc., the model calculated energy demands by type (various types of liquid and gaseous hydrocarbon fuels, electricity and hydrogen), and finally calculated emissions of GHGs and three criteria pollutants: reactive organic gases (ROG), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and fine (2.5 ?m) particulate matter (PM2.5). Calculations were generally statewide, but in some sectors, criteria pollutants were also calculated for two regional air basins: the South Coast Air Basin (SCAB) and the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Three scenarios were developed that attempt to model: (1) all committed policies, (2) additional, uncommitted policy targets and (3) potential technology and market futures. Each scenario received extensive input from state energy planning agencies, in particular the California Air Resources Board. Results indicate that all three scenarios are able to meet the 2020 statewide GHG targets, and by 2030, statewide GHG emissions range from between 208 and 396 MtCO2/yr. However, none of the scenarios are able to meet the 2050 GHG target of 85 MtCO2/yr, with emissions ranging from 188 to 444 MtCO2/yr, so additional policies will need to be developed for California to meet this stringent future target. A full sensitivity study of major scenario assumptions was also performed. In terms of criteria pollutants, targets were less well-defined, but while all three scenarios were able to make significant reductions in ROG, NOx and PM2.5 both statewide and in the two regional air basins, they may nonetheless fall short of what will be required by future federal standards. Specifically, in Scenario 1, regional NOx emissions are approximately three times the estimated targets for both 2023 and 2032, and in Scenarios 2 and 3, NOx emissions are approximately twice the estimated targets. Further work is required in this area, including detailed regional air quality modeling, in order to determine likely pathways for attaining these stringent targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1993

Largest impact features on Venus: Non-preserved or non-recognizable?

Conventional explanation of a lack of impact craters with diameters greater than 300 km on Venus is that they formed during the intense bombardment era and had lunar-like morphology, but they are not preserved now because of rapid viscous relaxation of their topograpy and/or high endogenous reworking of surface. Other explanation invokes failure to recognize these larger craters because of their non-lunar-like morphology from the moment of formation, since larger gravity of Venus relatively to the Moon results in that largest craters on Venus may form within the mass of shock melted material while comparably sized lunar craters would be still almost 'dry'. To test this hypothesis, morphologies and rim-crest diameters of the largest peak-ring and Orientale-type basins and all larger impact features on Moon, Mercury, Mars, and Venus were compiled and compared to rim crest diameters of model craters with different melt volume/transient-cavity volume ratios. Results show that the final diameters of model craters formed at depth of melting about twice of transient cavity depth correspond to changeover from a planet-similar morphology of all the smaller basins on any terrestrial planet to a planet-specific morphology of all the larger basins on the Moon, Mercury, and Mars. On Venus, these largest impact features are not found and instead, a Venus-specific morphology of the largest concentric coronae appears in this size range. The coronae were suggested to form over sites of mantle upwelling and modified by subsequent volcanism and gravitational relaxation. The results here suggest that mantle upwelling - the first and necessary step of the corona formation models - may be induced by impact event (as a result of transient cavity collapse) and operated under cover of hot, slowly cooled impact melt in the areas of thinned crust and/or thermally active regions.

Nikolaeva, Olga V.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving Production in the Emerging Paradox Oil Play (Final Technical Report)

This report documents the results of the DOE-funded project Improving Production in the Emerging Paradox Oil Play, focused on integrating geological characterization, petrophysical analysis, reservoir simulation, and field development planning to improve hydrocarbon recovery from the Paradox Basin. Project activities included core and log analysis, assessment of reservoir heterogeneity and compartmentalization, evaluation of completion and stimulation strategies, and development of an uncertainty-aware field development framework. Findings highlight the importance of selective completions, geology-driven well placement, and targeted stimulation in vertically heterogeneous carbonate reservoirs.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2024

Regime shifts in Arctic terrestrial hydrology manifested from impacts of climate warming

Abstract. Anthropogenic warming in the Arctic is causing hydrological cycle intensification and permafrost thaw, with implications for flows of water, carbon, and energy from terrestrial biomes to coastal zones. To better understand the likely impacts of these changes, we used a hydrology model driven by meteorological data from atmospheric reanalysis and two global climate models for the period 1980–2100. The hydrology model accounts for soil freeze–thaw processes and was applied across the pan-Arctic drainage basin. The simulations point to greater changes over northernmost areas of the basin underlain by permafrost and to the western Arctic. An acceleration of simulated river discharge over the recent past is commensurate with trends drawn from observations and reported in other studies. Between early-century (2000–2019) and late-century (2080–2099) periods, the model simulations indicate an increase in annual total runoff of 17 %–25 %, while the proportion of runoff emanating from subsurface pathways is projected to increase by 13 %–30 %, with the largest changes noted in summer and autumn and across areas with permafrost. Most notably, runoff contributions to river discharge shift to northern parts of the Arctic Basin that contain greater amounts of soil carbon. Each season sees an increase in subsurface runoff; spring is the only season where surface runoff dominates the rise in total runoff, and summer experiences a decline in total runoff despite an increase in the subsurface component. The greater changes that are seen in areas where permafrost exists support the notion that increased soil thaw is shifting hydrological contributions to more subsurface flow. The manifestations of warming, hydrological cycle intensification, and permafrost thaw will impact Arctic terrestrial and coastal environments through altered river flows and the materials they transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Regional Atmospheric CO2 Inversion Reveals Seasonal and Geographic Differences in Amazon Net Biome Exchange

Understanding tropical rainforest carbon exchange and its response to heat and drought is critical for quantifying the effects of climate change on tropical ecosystems, including global climate carbon feedbacks. Of particular importance for the global carbon budget is net biome exchange of CO2 with the atmosphere (NBE), which represents nonfire carbon fluxes into and out of biomass and soils. Subannual and sub-Basin Amazon NBE estimates have relied heavily on process-based biosphere models, despite lack of model agreement with plot-scale observations. We present a new analysis of airborne measurements that reveals monthly, regional-scale (Approx.1-8 x 10(exp -6) km2) NBE variations. We develop a regional atmospheric CO2 inversion that provides the first analysis of geographic and temporal variability in Amazon biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange and that is minimally influenced by biosphere model-based first guesses of seasonal and annual mean fluxes. We find little evidence for a clear seasonal cycle in Amazon NBE but do find NBE sensitivity to aberrations from long-term mean climate. In particular, we observe increased NBE (more carbon emitted to the atmosphere) associated with heat and drought in 2010, and correlations between wet season NBE and precipitation (negative correlation) and temperature (positive correlation). In the eastern Amazon, pulses of increased NBE persisted through 2011, suggesting legacy effects of 2010 heat and drought. We also identify regional differences in postdrought NBE that appear related to long-term water availability. We examine satellite proxies and find evidence for higher gross primary productivity (GPP) during a pulse of increased carbon uptake in 2011, and lower GPP during a period of increased NBE in the 2010 dry season drought, but links between GPP and NBE changes are not conclusive. These results provide novel evidence of NBE sensitivity to short-term temperature and moisture extremes in the Amazon, where monthly and sub-Basin estimates have not been previously available.

precipitation↗
NASA NTRS2021

A Visual Tour of Carbon Export by Sinking Particles

To better quantify the ocean's biological carbon pump, we resolved the diversity of sinking particles that transport carbon into the ocean's interior, their contribution to carbon export, and their attenuation with depth. Sinking particles collected in sediment trap gel layers from four distinct ocean ecosystems were imaged, measured, and classified. The size and identity of particles was used to model their contribution to particulate organic carbon (POC) flux. Measured POC fluxes were reasonably predicted by particle images. Nine particle types were identified, and most of the compositional variability was driven by the relative contribution of aggregates, long cylindrical fecal pellets, and salp fecal pellets. While particle composition varied across locations and seasons, the entire range of compositions was measured at a single well-observed location in the subarctic North Pacific over one month, across 500 m of depth. The magnitude of POC flux was not consistently associated with a dominant particle class, but particle classes did influence flux attenuation. Long fecal pellets attenuated most rapidly with depth whereas certain other classes attenuated little or not at all with depth. Small particles (<100 m) consistently contributed ~5% to total POC flux in samples with higher magnitude fluxes. The relative importance of these small particle classes (spherical mini pellets, short oval fecal pellets, and dense detritus) increased in low flux environments (up to 46% of total POC flux). Imaging approaches that resolve large variations in particle composition across ocean basins, depth, and time will help to better parameterize biological carbon pump models

Carbon flux↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scaling of Floods With Geomorphologic Characteristics and Precipitation Variability Across the Conterminous United States

Abstract Accurate flood risk assessment requires a comprehensive understanding of flood sensitivity to regional drivers and climate factors. This paper presents the scaling of floods (duration, peak, volume) with geomorphologic characteristics of the basin (i.e., drainage area, slope, elevation) and precipitation patterns (rainfall accumulation, variability). Long‐term daily streamflow observations over the 20th and early 21st centuries from Hydro‐Climatic Data Network streamgages across the conterminous United States are used to create a flood event database based on their flood stage information. Antecedent daily rainfall accumulation and variability corresponding to these floods are computed using Global Historical Climatology Network daily data set. Two Bayesian scaling models are developed, and the spatial organization of scaling exponents is investigated. The baseline model quantifies the scaling of floods to geomorphologic characteristics. The dynamic model quantifies the scaling of floods to antecedent precipitation distribution which is further conditioned on geomorphologic characteristics. Results show that small and low‐elevation basins have a stronger response to antecedent rainfall distribution in amplifying flood peaks, while high‐elevation steeper basins have a lower response for flood duration and volume. The dynamic models demonstrate that there are significant variations in the flood scaling rates, with the largest rates up to 40% and 4.5% for flood duration, 64% and 44% for peak, and 98% and 40% for volume found across the Northeast, Coastal Southeast, and Northwest with intensifying rainfall accumulation and variability, respectively. This study advances flood predictions by better informing the flood attributes in the context of dynamical land‐atmosphere perturbations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Surface Freshwater Storage and Variability in the Amazon Basin from Multi-Satellite Observations, 1993-2007

The amount of water stored and moving through the surface water bodies of large river basins (river, floodplains, wetlands) plays a major role in the global water and biochemical cycles and is a critical parameter for water resources management. However, the spatio-temporal variations of these freshwater reservoirs are still widely unknown at the global scale. Here, we propose a hypsographic curve approach to estimate surface freshwater storage variations over the Amazon basin combining surface water extent from a multi-satellite-technique with topographic data from the Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) from Advance Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER). Monthly surface water storage variations for 1993-2007 are presented, showing a strong seasonal and interannual variability, and are evaluated against in situ river discharge and precipitation. The basin-scale mean annual amplitude of approx. 1200 cu km is in the range of previous estimates and contributes to about half of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) total water storage variations. For the first time, we map the surface water volume anomaly during the extreme droughts of 1997 (October-November) and 2005 (September-October) and found that during these dry events the water stored in the river and flood-plains of the Amazon basin was, respectively, approx. 230 (approx. 40%) and 210 (approx. 50%) cu km below the 1993-2007 average. This new 15year data set of surface water volume represents an unprecedented source of information for future hydrological or climate modeling of the Amazon. It is also a first step toward the development of such database at the global scale.

Storage↗
DOE OSTI2025

Climate-extreme modeling framework for sustainable flood management in the Arabian Peninsula

Evaluating extreme precipitation events (EPEs) is essential for building climate-resilient water management strategies, but it remains a major challenge in ungauged basins. Using the 26,070 km 2 Wadi al-Rummah basin in central Saudi Arabia as a case study, we developed an alternative, reliable, cost-effective satellite-based framework that combines empirically derived EPE thresholds, imagery-calibrated 2D hydrodynamic modeling, GRACE water-storage diagnostics, and bias-corrected CMIP6 projections to assess flood hazards and recharge potential under current and future climate scenarios in ungauged basins. The integrated approach and the resulting findings followed four key steps: (1) Identified a 22.5 mm EPE threshold, the 80th percentile of 3-day GPM/IMERG rainfall (2000–2024), aligned with flood-triggering events (Nov 2018: 23–28 mm; Apr, 2023: 42 mm); (2) Developed and calibrated a RiverFlow2D model using Sentinel-2 and PlanetScope imagery for the November 2018 flood, accurately reproducing flood depth and extent (RMSE ≤0.31 m; fuzzy-Dice ≥0.91), and estimating runoff (41 %), infiltration (25 %), and evaporation (34 %); (3) Independently validated the model with the April 2023 event (RMSE ≤0.35 m; fuzzy-Dice ≥0.86); (4) Conducted climate projections (2025–2100) from five bias-corrected NEX-GDDP CMIP6 models that revealed a 34 % increase in EPE intensity under SSP2-4.5 and 48 % under SSP5-8.5 scenarios, relative to 20th-century baselines. Our findings indicate that while intensifying extremes in the 21st century increase flood risk, the results highlight the potential for episodic recharge if effective retention strategies are employed, and offer a transferable model for climate-informed planning in data-scarce arid regions.

CMIP6↗
DOE OSTI2018

Toward the Development of a Cold Regions Regional-Scale Hydrologic Model, Final Project Report

This project improves meso-scale hydrologic modeling in the boreal forest by: (1) demonstrating the importance of capturing the heterogeneity of the landscape using small scale datasets for parameterization for both small and large basins; (2) demonstrating that in drier parts of the landscape and as the boreal forest dries with climate change, modeling approaches must consider the sensitivity of simulations to soil hydraulic parameters - such as residual water content - that are usually held constant. Thus, variability / flexibility in residual water content must be considered for accurate simulation of hydrologic processes in the boreal forest; (3) demonstrating that assessing climate change impacts on boreal forest hydrology through multiple model integration must account for direct effects of climate change (temperature and precipitation), and indirect effects from climate impacts on landscape characteristics (permafrost and vegetation distribution). Simulations demonstrated that climate change will increase runoff, but will increase ET to a greater extent and result in a drying of the landscape; and (4) vegetation plays a significant role in boreal hydrologic processes in permafrost free areas that have deciduous trees. This landscape type results in a decoupling of ET and precipitation, a tight coupling of ET and temperature, low runoff, and overall soil drying.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Predictability of tropical vegetation greenness using sea surface temperatures

Much research has examined the sensitivity of tropical terrestrial ecosystems to various environmental drivers. The predictability of tropical vegetation greenness based on sea surface temperatures (SSTs), however, has not been well explored. This study employed fine spatial resolution remotely-sensed Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and SST indices from tropical ocean basins to investigate the predictability of tropical vegetation greenness in response to SSTs and established empirical models with optimal parameters for hindcast predictions. Three evaluation metrics were used to assess the model performance, i.e., correlations between historical observed and predicted values, percentage of correctly predicted signs of EVI anomalies, and percentage of correct signs for extreme EVI anomalies. Our findings reveal that the pan-tropical EVI was tightly connected to the SSTs over tropical ocean basins. The strongest impacts of SSTs on EVI were identified mainly over the arid or semi-arid tropical regions. The spatially-averaged correlation between historical observed and predicted EVI time series was 0.30 with its maximum value reaching up to 0.84. Vegetated areas across South America (25.76%), Africa (33.13%), and Southeast Asia (39.94%) were diagnosed to be associated with significant SST-EVI correlations (p < 0.01). In general, statistical models correctly predicted the sign of EVI anomalies, with their predictability increasing from ~60% to nearly 100% when EVI was abnormal (anomalies exceeding one standard deviation). These results provide a basis for the prediction of changes in greenness of tropical terrestrial ecosystems at seasonal to intra-seasonal scales. Furthermore, the statistics-based observational relationships have the potential to facilitate the benchmarking of Earth System Models regarding their ability to capture the responses of tropical vegetation growth to long-term signals of oceanic forcings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the Hydrogeochemical Response of a Mountainous Watershed Using Integrated Surface‐Subsurface Flow and Reactive Transport Modeling

Abstract Climate change and other disturbances significantly impact hydrogeochemical exports from mountainous headwater catchments such as the Upper Colorado River Basin. Developing a mechanistic understanding of how the physical and chemical processes interact in time and space in an integrated manner is key to quantifying the future impacts of such disturbances. The hydrogeochemical response of a mountainous catchment in the 2010–2019 period is evaluated quantitatively using a high‐resolution model that simulates integrated hydrology, and transport and reactions for selected solutes and minerals. The model assumes that pyrite is present only at depth while calcite is distributed uniformly, and captures the observed C‐Q reasonably well. Distinct C‐Q dynamics are observed in an average (WY16), a wet (WY17), and a dry (WY18) water year. The model also quantifies the water fraction from surface, shallow and deep groundwater compartments using tracers, and suggests greater groundwater contributions to peak stream discharge in the dry WY18. Results demonstrate that calcium concentrations do not change significantly from year to year, while sulfate shows significant temporal variability. Pyrite dissolution is affected by the changing hydrological drivers where it is enhanced in the dry WY18; calcite dissolution supplements calcium dilution under high flow conditions. The model simulates the reaction hotspots controlled by hydrological conditions, and the spatially‐resolved results show that higher soil saturation and less snowpack occur earlier on the south‐facing side than on the north‐facing side. This is a first‐of‐its‐kind demonstration of a model that integrates hydrologic processes, including evapotranspiration, and reactive transport to enable a predictive understanding of hydrogeochemical exports.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

Dynamics of the transition zone in coastal zone color scanner-sensed ocean color in the North Pacific during oceanographic spring

A transition zone in phytoplankton concentration running across the North Pacific basin at 30 deg to 40 deg north latitude corresponds to a basin-wide front in surface chlorophyll observed in a composite of coastal zone color scanner (CZCS) images for May, June, and July 1979-1986. This transition zone with low chlorophyll to the south and higher chlorophyll to the north can be simulated by a simple model of the concentration of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and dissolved nutrient (nitrate) in the surface mixed layer of the ocean applied to the North Pacific basin for the climatological conditions during oceanographic springtime (May, June, and July). The model is initialized with a 1 deg x 1 deg gridded estimate of wintertime (February, March, and April) mixed layer nitrate concentrations calculated from an extensive nutrient database and a similarly gridded mixed layer depth data set. Comparison of model predictions with CZCS data provides a means of evaluating the dynamics of the transition zone. We conclude that in the North Pacific, away from major boundary currents and coastal upwelling zones, wintertime vertical mixing determines the total nutrient available to the plankton ecosystem in the spring. The transition zone seen in basin-scale CZCS images is a reflection of the geographic variation in the wintertime mixed layer depth and the nitracline, leading to a latitudinal gradient in phytoplankton chlorophyll.

Glover, David M.↗