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DOE OSTI2021

Significant impact of forcing uncertainty in a large ensemble of climate model simulations

Forcing due to solar and volcanic variability, on the natural side, and greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, on the anthropogenic side, are the main inputs to climate models. Reliable climate model simulations of past and future climate change depend crucially upon them. Here we analyze large ensembles of simulations using a comprehensive Earth System Model to quantify uncertainties in global climate change attributable to differences in prescribed forcings. The different forcings considered here are those used in the two most recent phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), namely CMIP5 and CMIP6. We show significant differences in simulated global surface air temperature due to volcanic aerosol forcing in the second half of the 19th century and in the early 21st century. The latter arise from small-to-moderate eruptions incorporated in CMIP6 simulations but not in CMIP5 simulations. We also find significant differences in global surface air temperature and Arctic sea ice area due to anthropogenic aerosol forcing in the second half of the 20th century and early 21st century. These differences are as large as those obtained in different versions of an Earth System Model employing identical forcings. In simulations from 2015 to 2100, we find significant differences in the rates of projected global warming arising from CMIP5 and CMIP6 concentration pathways that differ slightly but are equivalent in terms of their nominal radiative forcing levels in 2100. Our results highlight the influence of assumptions about natural and anthropogenic aerosol loadings on carbon budgets, the likelihood of meeting Paris targets, and the equivalence of future forcing scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Study of radiation damage to the CMS Hadronic Endcap Calorimeter and investigation into new physics using multi-boson measurements

This document is the final report for the U.S. D.O.E. Grant No. DE-SC0014088, which covers the period from May 15, 2015 to March 31, 2016. The funded research covered the study of multi-boson final states, culminated in the measurement of the W ± γγ and, for the first time at an hadronic collider, of the Zγγ production cross sections. These processes, among the rarest multi-boson final states measurable by LHC experiments, allow us to investigate the possibility of new physics in a model-independent way, by looking for anomalies in the standard model couplings among electroweak bosons. In particular, these 3-boson final states access quartic gauge couplings; the W ± γγ analysis performed as a part of this proposal sets limits on anomalies in the WWγγ quartic gauge coupling. The award also covered R&D activities to define a radiation-tolerant material to be used in the incoming upgrade of the CMS hadronic endcap calorimeter. In particular, the usage of a liquid-scintillator-based detector was investigated. The research work performed in this direction has been collected in a paper recently submitted for publication in the Journal of Instrumentation (JINST).

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2016

The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6

The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) is a coordinated multi-model investigation into decadal climate prediction, predictability, and variability. The DCPP makes use of past experience in simulating and predicting decadal variability and forced climate change gained from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and elsewhere. It builds on recent improvements in models, in the reanalysis of climate data, in methods of initialization and ensemble generation, and in data treatment and analysis to propose an extended comprehensive decadal prediction investigation as a contribution to CMIP6 (Eyring et al., 2016) and to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction (Kushnir et al., 2016). The DCPP consists of three components. Component A comprises the production and analysis of an extensive archive of retrospective forecasts to be used to assess and understand historical decadal prediction skill, as a basis for improvements in all aspects of end-to-end decadal prediction, and as a basis for forecasting on annual to decadal timescales. Component B undertakes ongoing production, analysis and dissemination of experimental quasi-real-time multi-model forecasts as a basis for potential operational forecast production. Component C involves the organization and coordination of case studies of particular climate shifts and variations, both natural and naturally forced (e.g. the “hiatus”, volcanoes), including the study of the mechanisms that determine these behaviours. Furthermore, groups are invited to participate in as many or as few of the components of the DCPP, each of which are separately prioritized, as are of interest to them. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and society.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

CO 2 storage and potential fault instability in the St. Lawrence Lowlands sedimentary basin (Quebec, Canada): Insights from coupled reservoir-geomechanical modeling

In this paper, coupled reservoir-geomechanical (TOUGH-FLAC) modeling is applied for the first time to the St. Lawrence Lowlands region to evaluate the potential for shear failure along pre-existing high-angle normal faults, as well as the potential for tensile failure in the caprock units (Utica Shale and Lorraine Group). This activity is part of a general assessment of the potential for safe CO 2 injection into a sandstone reservoir (the Covey Hill Formation) within an Early Paleozoic sedimentary basin. Field and subsurface data are used to estimate the sealing properties of two reservoir-bounding faults (Yamaska and Champlain faults). The spatial variations in fluid pressure, effective minimum horizontal stress, and shear strain are calculated for different injection rates, using a simplified 2D geological model of the Becancour area, located ~110 km southwest of Quebec City. The simulation results show that initial fault permeability affects the timing, localization, rate, and length of fault shear slip. Contrary to the conventional view, our results suggest that shear failure may start earlier for a permeable fault than for a sealing fault, depending on the site-specific geologic setting. In simulations of a permeable fault, shear slip is nucleated along a 60 m long fault segment in a thin and brittle caprock unit (Utica Shale) trapped below a thicker and more ductile caprock unit (Lorraine Group) – and then subsequently progresses up to the surface. In the case of a sealing fault, shear failure occurs later in time and is localized along a fault segment (300 m) below the caprock units. The presence of the inclined low-permeable Yamaska Fault close to the injection well causes asymmetric fluid-pressure buildup and lateral migration of the CO 2 plume away from the fault, reducing the overall risk of CO 2 leakage along faults. Finally, fluid-pressure-induced tensile fracturing occurs only under extremely high injection rates and is localized below the caprock units, which remain intact, preventing upward CO 2 migration.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

An overview of TOUGH-based geomechanics models

After the initial development of the first TOUGH-based geomechanics model 15 years ago based on linking TOUGH2 multiphase flow simulator to the FLAC3D geomechanics simulator, at least 15 additional TOUGH-based geomechanics models have appeared in the literature. This development has been fueled by a growing demand and interest for modeling coupled multiphase flow and geomechanical processes related to a number of geoengineering applications, such as in geologic CO 2 sequestration, enhanced geothermal systems, unconventional hydrocarbon production, and most recently, related to reservoir stimulation and injection-induced seismicity. This paper provides a short overview of these TOUGH-based geomechanics models, focusing on some of the most frequently applied to a diverse set of problems associated with geomechanics and its couplings to hydraulic, thermal and chemical processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Validation of ablation model for polyethylene using pulsed x-ray and proton exposures

The surface erosion of polyethylene is interrogated using pulsed x rays at the Z Machine (Sandia National Laboratories) and with proton beams at the Gamble II generator (Naval Research Laboratory) to validate a coupled model for volumetric thermal ablation, photoionization, finite-rate decomposition, and molecular recombination of radicals. The intense radiation pulses (up to ∼1014W/m2 over tens of nanoseconds) are used to generate one-dimensional vapor flows with low ionization fractions and a simplified geometry compared to typical laser ablation, allowing for evaluation of the model under local thermal equilibrium conditions. Areal momentum carried by the ensuing uniaxial hydrodynamic shock is used to indicate the extent of ablation. The threshold fluence for ablation is found to be in close correspondence with the bulk melt transition, and reasonable agreement with the model is obtained for peak temperatures in polyethylene up to 5500 K and heating rates up to 1011K/s where thermal decomposition reactions are also active.

Moore, N. W. (ORCID:0000000272259674)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Little influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude climate

Observations and model simulations show enhanced warming in the Arctic under increasing greenhouse gases, a phenomenon known as the Arctic amplification (AA), that is likely caused by sea-ice loss. AA reduces meridional temperature gradients linked to circulation, thus mid-latitude weather and climate changes have been attributed to AA, often on the basis of regression analysis and atmospheric simulations. However, other modelling studies show only a weak link. This inconsistency may result from deficiencies in separating the effects of AA from those of natural variability or background warming. In this work, using coupled model simulations with and without AA, we show that cold-season precipitation, snowfall and circulation changes over northern mid-latitudes come mostly from background warming. AA and sea-ice loss increase precipitation and snowfall above ~60° N and reduce meridional temperature gradients above ~45° N in the lower–mid troposphere. However, minimal impact on the mean climate is seen below ~60° N, with weak reduction in zonal wind over 50°–70° N and 150–700 hPa, mainly over the North Atlantic and northern central Asia. These results suggest that the climatic impacts of AA are probably small outside the high latitudes, thus caution is needed in attributing mid-latitude changes to AA and sea-ice loss on the basis of statistical analyses that cannot distinguish the impact of AA from other correlated changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A proof of concept for matchete: an automated tool for matching effective theories

Abstract Studying the impact of new-physics models on low-energy observables necessitates matching to effective field theories at the relevant mass thresholds. We introduce the first public version of , a computer tool for matching weakly-coupled models at one-loop order. It uses functional methods to directly compute all matching contributions in a manifestly gauge-covariant manner, while simplification methods eliminate redundant operators from the output. We sketch the workings of the program and provide examples of how to match simple Standard Model extensions. The package, documentation, and example notebooks are publicly available at https://gitlab.com/matchete/matchete .

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Present and Future Modes of Low Frequency Climate Variability

This project addressed area (1) of the FOA, “Interaction of Climate Change and Low Frequency Modes of Natural Climate Variability”. Our overarching objective is to detect, describe and understand the changes in low frequency variability between model simulations of the preindustrial climate and simulations of a doubled CO2 climate. The deliverables are a set of papers providing a dynamical characterization of interannual, decadal, and multidecadal variability in coupled models with attention to the changes in this low frequency variability between pre-industrial concentrations of greenhouse gases and a doubling of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. The principle mode of analysis, singular vector decomposition, is designed to advance our physical, mechanistic understanding. This study will include external natural variability due to solar and volcanic aerosol variations as well as variability internal to the climate system. An important byproduct is a set of analysis tools for estimating global singular vector structures from the archived output of model simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2012

Level 1 transient model for a molybdenum-99 producing aqueous homogeneous reactor and its applicability to the tracy reactor

Babcock and Wilcox Technical Services Group (B and W) has identified aqueous homogeneous reactors (AHRs) as a technology well suited to produce the medical isotope molybdenum 99 (Mo-99). AHRs have never been specifically designed or built for this specialized purpose. However, AHRs have a proven history of being safe research reactors. In fact, in 1958, AHRs had 'a longer history of operation than any other type of research reactor using enriched fuel' and had 'experimentally demonstrated to be among the safest of all various type of research reactor now in use [1].' A 'Level 1' model representing B and W's proposed Medical Isotope Production System (MIPS) reactor has been developed. The Level 1 model couples a series of differential equations representing neutronics, temperature, and voiding. Neutronics are represented by point reactor kinetics while temperature and voiding terms are axially varying (one-dimensional). While this model was developed specifically for the MIPS reactor, its applicability to the Japanese TRACY reactor was assessed. The results from the Level 1 model were in good agreement with TRACY experimental data and found to be conservative over most of the time domains considered. The Level 1 model was used to study the MIPS reactor. An analysis showed the Level 1 model agreed well with a more complex computational model of the MIPS reactor (a FETCH model). Finally, a significant reactivity insertion was simulated with the Level 1 model to study the MIPS reactor's time-dependent response. (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Effect of Slotted Anode on Gas Bubble Behaviors in Aluminum Reduction Cell

In the aluminum reduction cells, gas bubbles are generated at the bottom of the anode which eventually reduces the effective current contact area and the system efficiency. To encourage the removal of gas bubbles, slotted anode has been proposed and increasingly adopted by some industrial aluminum reduction cells. Nonetheless, the exact gas bubble removal mechanisms are yet to be fully understood. A three-dimensional (3D) transient, multiphase flow mathematical model coupled with magnetohydrodynamics has been developed to investigate the effect of slotted anode on the gas bubble movement. The Eulerian volume of fluid approach is applied to track the electrolyte (bath)–molten aluminum (metal) interface. Meanwhile, the Lagrangian discrete particle model is employed to handle the dynamics of gas bubbles with considerations of the buoyancy force, drag force, virtual mass force, and pressure gradient force. The gas bubble coalescence process is also taken into account based on the O’Rourke’s algorithm. The two-way coupling between discrete bubbles and fluids is achieved by the inter-phase momentum exchange. Numerical predictions are validated against the anode current variation in an industrial test. Comparing the results using slotted anode with the traditional one, the time-averaged gas bubble removal rate increases from 36 to 63 pct; confirming that the slotted anode provides more escaping ways and shortens the trajectories for gas bubbles. Furthermore, the slotted anode also reduces gas bubble’s residence time and the probability of coalescence. Moreover, the bubble layer thickness in aluminum cell with slotted anode is reduced about 3.5 mm (17.4 pct), so the resistance can be cut down for the sake of energy saving and the metal surface fluctuation amplitude is significantly reduced for the stable operation due to the slighter perturbation with smaller bubbles.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2018

Reversal of Increasing Tropical Ocean Hypoxia Trends With Sustained Climate Warming

Dissolved oxygen (O 2 ) is essential for the survival of marine animals. Climate change impacts on future oxygen distributions could modify species biogeography, trophic interactions, biodiversity, and biogeochemistry. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models predict a decreasing trend in marine O 2 over the 21st century. Here we show that this increasing hypoxia trend reverses in the tropics after 2100 in the Community Earth System Model forced by atmospheric CO 2 from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and Extended Concentration Pathway 8.5. In tropical intermediate waters between 200 and 1,000 m, the model predicts a steady decline of O 2 and an expansion of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) during the 21st century. By 2150, however, the trend reverses with oxygen concentration increasing and OMZ volume shrinking through 2300. A novel five-box model approach in conjunction with output from the full Earth system model is used to separate the contributions of biological and physical processes to the trends in tropical oxygen. The tropical O 2 recovery is caused mainly by reductions in tropical biological export, coupled with a modest increase in ventilation after 2200. The time-evolving oxygen distribution impacts marine nitrogen cycling, with potentially important climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI1995

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 36, No. 2, July-December 1995]

Nuclear Safety is a journal that covers significant issues in the field of nuclear safety. Its primary scope is safety in the design, construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors worldwide and the research and analysis activities that promote this goal, but it also encompasses the safety aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing and handling, and nuclear waste disposal, the handling of fissionable materials and radioisotopes, and the environmental effects of all these activities. Table of Contents for this issue follows. THE CHORNOBYL ACCIDENT: 195 The Chornobyl Accident Revisited, Part III: Chernobyl Source Term Release Dynamics and Reconstruction of Events During the Active Phase, A. R. Sich; GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 218 Second ANS Workshop on the Safety of Soviet-Designed Nuclear Power Plants, R. A. Bari; 234 Elements of a Nuclear Criticality Safety Program, C. M. Hopper; 243 Rickover, Excellence, and Criticality Safety Programs, R. E. Wilson; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 249 Transient Analysis of the PIUS Advanced Reactor Design with the TRAC-PF1/MOD2 Code, B. E. Boyack, J. L Steiner, S. C. Harmony, H. J. Stumpf, and J. F. Lime; 278 The Hierarchy-By-Interval Approach to Identifying Important Models that Need Improvement in Severe-Accident Simulation Codes, T. J. Heames, M. Khatib-Rahbar, J. E. Kelly, R. P. Jenks-Johnson, and Y.-S. Chen; 290 RELAP5/MOD3 Code Coupling Model, R. P. Martin; 299 Missiles Caused by Severe Pressurized-Water Reactor Accidents, R. Krieg; DESIGN FEATURES: 310 Validation of COMMIX with Westinghouse AP-600 PCCS Test Data, J. G. Sun, T. H. Chien, J. Ding, and W T. Sha; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 321 Spent Nuclear Fuel Characterization for a Bounding Reference Assembly for the Receiving Basin for Off-Site Fuel, S. D. Kahook, R. L. Garrett, L. R. Canas, and M J. Beckum; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 332 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION INFORMATION AND ANALYSES: 335 Reactor Coolant System Blowdown at Wolf Creek on September 17, 1994, J. V. Kauffman and S. L. Israel; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 344 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Oueener; 349 Proposed Rule Changes as of June 30, 1995; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 320 Symposium on Acceptability of Risk From Radiation—Application to Manned Space Flight; 320 24th DOE/NRC Nuclear Air Cleaning and Treatment Conference; 361 Radiation Biology and Radiation Protection— Modern Developments and Tendencies in Radiation Biology; 362 1997 IEEE Sixth Conference on Human Factors and Power Plants; 354 The Authors; 360 Reviewers of Nuclear Safety, Vol. 36.

05 NUCLEAR FUELS↗

DOE OSTI1995

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 36, No. 2, July-December 1995]

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

CMIP6-based Multi-model Streamflow Projections over the Conterminous US, Version 1.1

This dataset presents an ensemble of streamflow projections covering the conterminous United States (CONUS), developed to support the SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). Multiple Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) Global Climate Models (GCMs) were downscaled using either statistical (DBCCA) or dynamical (RegCM) downscaling methods, based on two meteorological reference datasets (Daymet and Livneh). Subsequently, the downscaled precipitation, temperature, and wind speed data were used to drive two calibrated hydrologic models (VIC and PRMS), with total runoff routed through the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID) routing model, producing an ensemble of streamflow projections across 2.7 million NHDPlusV2 stream reaches across the CONUS. Each ensemble member covers the 1980-2019 baseline and 2020-2059 near-future periods under the high-end (SSP585) emission scenario. Additionally, using only DBCCA and Daymet, the projections extend to the 2060-2099 far-future period and encompass three additional emission scenarios (SSP370, SSP245, and SSP126). This dataset is designed to support the SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). For further details, refer to Kao et al. (2022), Rastogi et al. (2022), and Ghimire et al. (2023).

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Thermoplasticity and strain localization in transversely isotropic materials based on anisotropic critical state plasticity

Geomaterials including soils and rocks are inherently anisotropic and sensitive to temperature changes caused by various internal and external processes. They are also susceptible to strain localization in the form of shear bands when subjected to critical loads. In this paper, we present a thermo-plastic framework for modeling coupled thermo-mechanical response and for predicting the inception of a shear band in a transversely isotropic material using the general framework of critical state plasticity and the specific framework of an anisotropic modified Cam-Clay model. The formulation incorporates anisotropy in both elastic and plastic responses under the assumption of infinitesimal deformation. The model is first calibrated using experimental data from triaxial tests to demonstrate its capability in capturing anisotropy in the mechanical response. Subsequently, stress-point simulations of strain localization are carried out under two different conditions, namely, isothermal localization and adiabatic localization. The adiabatic formulation investigates the effect of temperature on localization via thermo-mechanical coupling. Numerical simulations are presented to demonstrate the important role of anisotropy, hardening, and thermal softening on strain localization inception and orientation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2015

Comsol multiphysics simulation of the 1958 Y-12 criticality accident - 14654

This paper presents the simulation of the 1958 Y-12 criticality excursion using the commercial multiphysics code COMSOL Multiphysics. ICNC 2011 reported the initial effort to simulate the Y-12 accident power history using a fully coupled neutronic and computational fluid dynamic (CFD) approach with the Imperial College London FETCH code. That simulation included the initial spike and a subsequent power history 30 seconds afterwards. A time-dependent lumped parameter excursion model was later developed at Imperial in November 2014 and taken to 20 min. The COMSOL simulation is viewed as a hybrid treatment of these efforts. The use of COMSOL as a platform for criticality excursion simulation had been previously demonstrated with SILENE step reactivity insertion benchmarks. The Y-12 accident represented a unique time dependent reactivity insertion mechanism by dilution of the fissile concentration over time that facilitated the excursion termination. The COMSOL model includes a moving mesh vertical boundary, compartment radiolytic gas model, coupled turbulent fluid flow and conjugate heat transfer. The results are compared with both FETCH and lumped parameter simulations. The COMSOL power history results are in agreement with the reported and reconstructed initial spike fissions, power and total fissions over time. The simulated power trace shows explicit subsequent spikes approximately 10-20 seconds apart from the initial spike, over the first three minutes of the excursion. This result qualitatively confirms the radiation dose rate trace from a far field monitor located well beyond the affected facility. Additionally, the COMSOL model shows the onset of boiling after 3 minutes, as postulated in the literature. The combination of boiling and fissile solution dilution contributed to the shutdown mechanism. (authors)

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multiscale formulation of frictional contact mechanics at the pore scale

Direct numerical simulation (DNS) yields the highest fidelity predictions of mechanical deformation at the pore scale, but is prohibitively expensive for analyzing large or many samples. Discrete element methods (DEM) are an efficient alternative, but are limited to granular media and incapable of estimating or controlling prediction errors. We present a pore-level multiscale method (PLMM) that approximates DNS efficiently and with controllable accuracy. We focus on the linear elastic response of a consolidated geologic porous medium with arbitrary microstructure, heterogeneous mineralogy, containing cracks or defects. PLMM decomposes the solid phase into non-overlapping subdomains, on which local basis functions are constructed. The bases are then coupled with a global interface problem that accounts for slip or stick contact conditions between the subdomains. PLMM produces an initial, but accurate, approximation to DNS that can be iteratively improved. It is amenable to parallelism and allows for different mesh, models, and physics in each subdomain. An algebraic interpretation of PLMM as a preconditioner is also presented to allow non-intrusive implementation into existing solvers. Lastly, this work extends previous developments of PLMM in fluid dynamics to solid mechanics and enables future extensions towards modeling coupled flow and mechanics problems.

42 ENGINEERING↗