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DOE OSTI2022

A Comprehensive Simulation Study to Evaluate Future Vehicle Energy and Cost Reduction Potential

Under the umbrella of EERE’s Office of Sustainable Transportation, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO) seek to develop sustainable, affordable, and efficient technologies for transportation of goods and people. Translating investments in advanced transportation component technologies and powertrains to estimate the potential for vehicle-level fuel savings is critical to understanding DOE’s impact and success in this mission For this study, Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) simulated technologies funded by VTO and HFTO for light-duty vehicles across the following: Powertrain configurations (conventional, power-split hybrid electric vehicle, extended-range electric vehicle, battery electric drive, and fuel-cell vehicles); Vehicle classes (compact car, mid-size car, small sport utility vehicle [SUV], mid-size SUV, and pickup truck); Fuels (gasoline, diesel, natural gas, hydrogen, and battery electricity). We assessed each technology for five different timeframes: laboratory years 2015 (reference), 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2045. We assumed a delay of 5 years between laboratory year and model year (i.e., the year the technology is introduced into production). Finally, we included uncertainties for both technology performance and cost by considering two cases (note that these cases are not intended as predictions of future performance): Low case , aligned with DOE technology manager estimates of expected original equipment manufacturer (OEM) improvements based on business as usual regulatory and market environments; High case , aligned with aggressive technology advancements based on research and development (R&D) targets developed through support by VTO and HFTO. We estimated the energy and cost impact of different technologies using Autonomie (Argonne undated), a state-of-the-art vehicle system simulation tool developed by Argonne and used to assess the energy consumption, performance, and cost of multiple advanced vehicle technologies. The tool comprises a complete set of vehicle models to assess impacts across a wide range of classes (from light- to heavy-duty), powertrain configurations (from conventional to hybrid electric vehicles [HEVs], fuel cell electric vehicles [FCEVs], plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [PHEVs], and battery electric vehicles [BEVs]), components, and control strategies, including vehicle-level and component-level controls developed and calibrated using dynamometer test data. Autonomie has been used to support a wide range of studies: analyzing various component technologies, sizing powertrain components to meet different vehicle requirements, comparing the benefits of powertrain configurations, optimizing both heuristic and route-based vehicle energy control, and predicting transportation energy use when paired with a traffic modeling tool such as POLARIS. This report documents the assumptions made and the vehicle-level energy consumption benefits and associated technology costs estimated for various types of light-duty vehicles. Details regarding vehicle assumptions and simulation results are available in the spreadsheets accompanying this report.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2016

Sodium Spray Fire Simulations using CONTAIN-LMR

License applications for sodium fast reactors will include sodium fire analysis and subsequent mitigation strategies. Sodium leaks or ruptures from piping and support systems can lead to significant fires due to the reactive nature of sodium with air and water. Understanding the behavior of sodium fires is crucial for modeling and predicting accidents in sodium fast reactors. This paper describes the initial results of a control volume code, CONTAIN-LMR (CLMR), modeling effort for a sodium spray fire experiment conducted at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in Albuquerque, New Mexico in 2010. Additional sodium spray and pool fire tests were conducted at SNL in 2009 and 2010 and will be compared to CLMR results in future papers. The purpose of this analysis was extract information from the evolution of the SNL tests to better understand how to use CLMR in future sodium fire analysis. Thus the following CLMR simulations were not completely the result of blind benchmarking study. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Enzyme activities predicted by metabolite concentrations and solvent capacity in the cell

Experimental measurements or computational model predictions of the post-translational regulation of enzymes needed in a metabolic pathway is a difficult problem. Consequently, regulation is mostly known only for well-studied reactions of central metabolism in various model organisms. In this study, we use two approaches to predict enzyme regulation policies and investigate the hypothesis that regulation is driven by the need to maintain the solvent capacity in the cell. The first predictive method uses a statistical thermodynamics and metabolic control theory framework while the second method is performed using a hybrid optimization–reinforcement learning approach. Efficient regulation schemes were learned from experimental data that either agree with theoretical calculations or result in a higher cell fitness using maximum useful work as a metric. As previously hypothesized, regulation is herein shown to control the concentrations of both immediate and downstream product concentrations at physiological levels. Model predictions provide the following two novel general principles: (1) the regulation itself causes the reactions to be much further from equilibrium instead of the common assumption that highly non-equilibrium reactions are the targets for regulation; and (2) the minimal regulation needed to maintain metabolite levels at physiological concentrations maximizes the free energy dissipation rate instead of preserving a specific energy charge. The resulting energy dissipation rate is an emergent property of regulation which may be represented by a high value of the adenylate energy charge. In addition, the predictions demonstrate that the amount of regulation needed can be minimized if it is applied at the beginning or branch point of a pathway, in agreement with common notions. The approach is demonstrated for three pathways in the central metabolism of E. coli (gluconeogenesis, glycolysis-tricarboxylic acid (TCA) and pentose phosphate-TCA) that each require different regulation schemes. It is shown quantitatively that hexokinase, glucose 6-phosphate dehydrogenase and glyceraldehyde phosphate dehydrogenase, all branch points of pathways, play the largest roles in regulating central metabolism.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling

Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO 2 and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

DOE OSTI2013

VALIDATION AND RESULTS OF A PSEUDO-MULTI-ZONE COMBUSTION TRAJECTORY PREDICTION MODEL FOR CAPTURING SOOT AND NOX FORMATION ON A MEDIUM DUTY DIESEL ENGINE

A pseudo-multi-zone phenomenological model has been created with the ultimate goal of supporting efforts to enable broader commercialization of low temperature combustion modes in diesel engines. The benefits of low temperature combustion are the simultaneous reduction in soot and nitric oxide emissions and increased engine efficiency if combustion is properly controlled. Determining what qualifies as low temperature combustion for any given engine can be difficult without expensive emissions analysis equipment. This determination can be made off-line using computer models or through factory calibration procedures. This process could potentially be simplified if a real-time prediction model could be implemented to run for any engine platform this is the motivation for this study. The major benefit of this model is the ability for it to predict the combustion trajectory, i.e. local temperature and equivalence ratio in the burning zones. The model successfully captures all the expected trends based on the experimental data and even highlights an opportunity for simply using the average reaction temperature and equivalence ratio as an indicator of emissions levels alone - without solving formation sub-models. This general type of modeling effort is not new, but a major effort was made to minimize the calculation duration to enable implementation as an input to real-time next-cycle engine controller Instead of simply using the predicted engine out soot and NOx levels, control decisions could be made based on the trajectory. This has the potential to save large amounts of calibration time because with minor tuning (the model has only one automatically determined constant) it is hoped that the control algorithm would be generally applicable.

Bittle, Joshua A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Murine Model of Radionuclide Lung Contamination for the Evaluation of Americium Decorporation Treatments

The hydroxypyridinone ligand 3,4,3-LI(1,2-HOPO) (HOPO), has been previously characterized as a promising chelating agent for in vivo decorporation of actinides, with decorporation being the removal of internally deposited contaminants from the body after exposure. The large majority of relevant literature reports have detailed the efficacy profile of HOPO as a decorporation agent in rodent models, where controlled radionuclide contamination is conducted via intravenous injection. However, this method of contamination does not necessarily reflect an accurate predictive model of the most probable biodistribution of free metal in the body. In the event of a radiological dispersal device or nuclear power plant accident scenario, it is most likely that first responders, military personnel, and victims of the event will be contaminated via air and water transmission. Therefore, research into the efficacy of chelating agents to treat lung-contaminated in vivo models needs to be carried out. Here, we establish a murine model with controlled, reproducible lung contamination using two different radionuclides, 89Zr and 241Am, for orthogonal biodistribution validation by positron emission tomography and ex vivo radioanalysis, respectively. In addition, we report effective chelation treatment of 241Am-contaminated lungs using HOPO, which improves decorporation by up to 40% compared to Ca-DTPA, the current standard of care.

Arino, Trevor↗

DOE OSTI2016

Strain control of composite superconductors to prevent degradation of superconducting magnets due to a quench: I. Ag/Bi2Sr2CaCu2Ox multifilament round wires

The critical current of many practical superconductors is sensitive to strain, and this sensitivity is exacerbated during a quench that induces a peak local strain which can be fatal to superconducting magnets. Here, a new method is introduced to quantify the influence of the conductor stress and strain state during normal operation on the margin to degradation during a quench, as measured by the maximum allowable hot spot temperature T allowable, for composite wires within superconducting magnets. The first conductor examined is Ag-sheathed Bi2Sr2CaCu2Ox round wire carrying high engineering critical current density, J E, of 550 A mm−2 at 4.2 K and 15 T. The critical axial tensile stress of this conductor is determined to be 150 MPa and, in the absence of Lorentz forces, T allowable is greater than 450 K. With increasing axial tensile stress, σ a, however, T allowable decreases nonlinearly, dropping to 280 K for σ a = 120 MPa and to 160 K for σ a = 145 MPa. T allowable(σ a) is shown to be nonlinear and independent of magnetic field from 15 to 30 T. T allowable(σ a) dictates the balance between magnetic field generation, which increases with the magnet operating current and stress, and the safety margin, which decreases with decreasing T allowable, and therefore has important engineering value. It is also shown that T allowable(σ a) can be predicted accurately by a general strain model, showing that strain control is the key to preventing degradation of superconductors during a quench.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Model-Based Design and Integration of Large Li-ion Battery Systems

This presentation introduces physics-based models of batteries and software toolsets, including those developed by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Computer-Aided Engineering for Electric-Drive Vehicle Batteries Program (CAEBAT). The presentation highlights achievements and gaps in model-based tools for materials-to-systems design, lifetime prediction and control.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Enhanced understanding of non-axisymmetric intrinsic and controlled field impacts in tokamaks

Here, an extensive study of intrinsic and controlled non-axisymmetric field (δB) impacts in KSTAR has enhanced the understanding about non-axisymmetric field physics and its implications, in particular, on resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) physics and power threshold (P th ) for L–H transition. The n=1 intrinsic non-axisymmetric field in KSTAR was measured to remain as low as δB/B 0 ~ 4×10 –5 even at high-beta plasmas (β N ~ 2), which corresponds to approximately 20% below the targeted ITER tolerance level. As for the RMP edge-localized-modes (ELM) control, robust n=1 RMP ELM-crash-suppression has been not only sustained for more than ~90 τ E , but also confirmed to be compatible with rotating RMP. An optimal window of radial position of lower X-point (i.e. R x = $1.44\pm 0.02\,$ m) proved to be quite critical to reach full n=1 RMP-driven ELM-crash-suppression, while a constraint of the safety factor could be relaxed (q 95 = 5 $\pm $ 0.25). A more encouraging finding was that even when R x cannot be positioned in the optimal window, another systematic scan in the vicinity of the previously optimal R x allows for a new optimal window with relatively small variations of plasma parameters. Also, we have addressed the importance of optimal phasing (i.e. toroidal phase difference between adjacent rows) for n=1 RMP-driven ELM control, consistent with an ideal plasma response modeling which could predict phasing-dependent ELM suppression windows. In support of ITER RMP study, intentionally misaligned RMPs have been found to be quite effective during ELM-mitigation stage in lowering the peaks of divertor heat flux, as well as in broadening the 'wet' areas. Besides, a systematic survey of P th dependence on non-axisymmetric field has revealed the potential limit of the merit of low intrinsic non-axisymmetry. Considering that the ITER RMP coils are composed of 3-rows, just like in KSTAR, further 3D physics study in KSTAR is expected to help us minimize the uncertainties of the ITER RMP coils, as well as establish an optimal 3D configuration for ITER and future reactors.

3D physics↗

DOE OSTI2012

Ab initio no core shell model

A long-standing goal of nuclear theory is to determine the properties of atomic nuclei based on the fundamental interactions among the protons and neutrons (i.e., nucleons). By adopting nucleon-nucleon (NN), three-nucleon (NNN) and higher-nucleon interactions determined from either meson-exchange theory or QCD, with couplings fixed by few-body systems, we preserve the predictive power of nuclear theory. This foundation enables tests of nature's fundamental symmetries and offers new vistas for the full range of complex nuclear phenomena. Basic questions that drive our quest for a microscopic predictive theory of nuclear phenomena include: (1) What controls nuclear saturation; (2) How the nuclear shell model emerges from the underlying theory; (3) What are the properties of nuclei with extreme neutron/proton ratios; (4) Can we predict useful cross sections that cannot be measured; (5) Can nuclei provide precision tests of the fundamental laws of nature; and (6) Under what conditions do we need QCD to describe nuclear structure, among others. Along with other ab initio nuclear theory groups, we have pursued these questions with meson-theoretical NN interactions, such as CD-Bonn and Argonne V18, that were tuned to provide high-quality descriptions of the NN scattering phase shifts and deuteron properties. We then add meson-theoretic NNN interactions such as the Tucson-Melbourne or Urbana IX interactions. More recently, we have adopted realistic NN and NNN interactions with ties to QCD. Chiral perturbation theory within effective field theory ({chi}EFT) provides us with a promising bridge between QCD and hadronic systems. In this approach one works consistently with systems of increasing nucleon number and makes use of the explicit and spontaneous breaking of chiral symmetry to expand the strong interaction in terms of a dimensionless constant, the ratio of a generic small momentum divided by the chiral symmetry breaking scale taken to be about 1 GeV/c. The resulting NN and NNN interactions, characterized by the order of the expansion retained (e.g. 'next-to-next-to leading order' is NNLO), provide a high-quality fit to the NN data and the A = 3 ground-state (g.s.) properties. The derivations of NN, NNN, etc. interactions within meson-exchange and {chi}EFT are well-established but are not subjects of this review. Our focus is solution of the non-relativistic quantum many-body Hamiltonian that includes these interactions using our no core shell model (NCSM) formalism. In the next section we will briefly outline the NCSM formalism and then present applications, results and extensions in later sections.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2015

Efficient simulation and model reformulation of two-dimensional electrochemical thermal behavior of lithium-ion batteries

Lithium-ion batteries are an important technology to facilitate efficient energy storage and enable a shift from petroleum based energy to more environmentally benign sources. Such systems can be utilized most efficiently if good understanding of performance can be achieved for a range of operating conditions. Mathematical models can be useful to predict battery behavior to allow for optimization of design and control. An analytical solution is ideally preferred to solve the equations of a mathematical model, as it eliminates the error that arises when using numerical techniques and is usually computationally cheap. An analytical solution provides insight into the behavior of the system and also explicitly shows the effects of different parameters on the behavior. However, most engineering models, including the majority of battery models, cannot be solved analytically due to non-linearities in the equations and state dependent transport and kinetic parameters. The numerical method used to solve the system of equations describing a battery operation can have a significant impact on the computational cost of the simulation. In this paper, a model reformulation of the porous electrode pseudo three dimensional (P3D) which significantly reduces the computational cost of lithium ion battery simulation, while maintaining high accuracy, is discussed. This reformulation enables the use of the P3D model into applications that would otherwise be too computationally expensive to justify its use, such as online control, optimization, and parameter estimation. Furthermore, the P3D model has proven to be robust enough to allow for the inclusion of additional physical phenomena as understanding improves. In this study, the reformulated model is used to allow for more complicated physical phenomena to be considered for study, including thermal effects.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

On the Low Risk of SSR in Type III Wind Turbines Operating in Grid-Forming Control: Preprint

We have shown in a previous work that the risk of sub-synchronous resonance (SSR) between a wind power plant with Type III wind turbines and series-compensated transmission lines is low when the wind turbines in the plant are operated in grid-forming mode, instead of the standard grid-following mode. The fundamental mechanism behind the improved damping characteristics is explained in this paper by modeling the positive and negative sequence impedances of Type III wind turbines for GFM operation mode. It is discovered that the GFM control naturally acts against the negative resistance of Type III wind turbines that results from an interaction between the proportional gain of the rotor-side converter current controller and negative slip. The developed sequence impedance models and improved damping behavior are verified using PSCAD simulations of a 2.5-MW Type III GFM wind turbine. The modeling predictions are also supported by experimentally measuring the sequence impedance response of a 2.5-MW Type III wind turbine during operation in GFL and GFM modes.

grid-following turbine↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hot Springs and Geysers: Exploring Historical and Modern Impacts of Geothermal Energy Production on Associated Natural Surface Systems and Standardizing Management Practices

Surface thermal features, most notably hot springs and geysers are increasingly being recognized for their importance to ecosystems, indigenous cultures, and in some cases agriculture, recreation, and tourism. Geothermal project development poses a potential risk to these natural features but current regulatory requirements for assessing and managing these risks during exploration, permitting and monitoring are somewhat inconsistent and unpredictable across different geothermal fields. This has resulted in uncertainty and increases in exploration risk for geothermal energy developers that have led to costly project delays, cancellations, or hesitation to commit. Varying regulatory requirements may also influence public perception, fostering confusion, distrust and ultimately opposition to geothermal projects, further contributing to project delays or cancellations. At a time when there is an increasing urgency for reliable baseload clean energy, geothermal is a net-zero, renewable solution that additionally provides access to more equitable and environmentally just clean power. Continued integration of geothermal energy into the national energy roadmap can be facilitated through consistent and predictable permitting, providing regulators the framework they need, developers a clear path forward, and transparency that the public deserves. This project, currently in its beginning phases, seeks to address this important issue by providing a technical basis from which to build a preliminary protocol for assessing and managing potential impacts from new or existing geothermal energy projects to surface thermal features and their associated ecosystems. Development of this preliminary protocol will be informed by (1) a literature review of well-documented case studies in the western U.S. and New Zealand to understand the range of conditions that exemplify geothermal-surface thermal systems; (2) development of generic illustrative conceptual-numerical models to quantify, understand, and predict the first-order controls (e.g., pressure and permeability) on surface flows; and (3) additional independent and scientifically rigorous evaluations of geothermal-surface thermal system case studies from the Basin and Range Province that incorporate publicly available data as well as data provided by industry through data-sharing agreements. Learning from the successes of the process used to develop the Induced Seismicity Management Protocol (ISMP), we ultimately aim to use these initial efforts as a springboard for establishing a surface thermal feature management working group that will work collaboratively to finalize the protocol as well as co-create recommended best practices for implementation. We envision that the working group will primarily be composed of representatives from regulatory entities, government agencies, Tribes, academia, national laboratories, and industry, and will include early and regular engagement with community organizations and environmental groups. This will help ensure broad acceptance and implementation of the protocol, which will facilitate a more consistent, predictable, and standardized regulatory process, and help to ensure that geothermal energy continues to provide a reliable source of clean energy, and a pathway to achieving greater energy equity in the U.S.

Best Practices↗

DOE OSTI2019

Validation of Wichner Predictive Model for Chronic Oxidation by Moisture of Nuclear Graphite

This document reports the results of multi-year extensive research on chronic oxidation of nuclear graphite by traces of moisture that might be present in the helium coolant of high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs). The research focuses on four grades of nuclear graphite that are considered potential candidates for component fabrication in advanced nuclear reactors. The four grades are (1) PCEA (medium-fine grain, extruded, manufactured by GrafTech Inc., USA); (2) NBG-17 (medium-fine grain, vibrationally molded, manufactured by SGL Carbon, Germany/France); (3) IG-110 (microfine grain, isostatically molded, manufactured by Toyo Tanso, Japan); and (4) 2114 (microfine grain, isostatically pressed, manufactured by Mersen, USA). The experimental part of this research comprised three objectives that were consistently pursued for each graphite material: (1) accelerated oxidation tests in well-controlled conditions (temperature, gas composition) and analysis of chemical kinetic models and of their parameters for each graphite grade; (2) measurements of water vapor transport rates from H 2 O/He mixtures through thin graphite slabs for estimation of the water effective diffusivity specific to each material; (3) controlled oxidation of graphite specimens in H 2 O/He mixtures and characterization of the effects of oxidation temperatures on the density profiles of oxidized layers. These three groups of experimental results were interpreted using the model developed by Wichner et al. for predicting the penetration depth of oxidants (moisture or oxygen) as a function of oxidation conditions. Basically, starting from the kinetic and transport properties of each graphite grade, the ultimate goal was predicting the stable density profile in the oxidized layer and its dependence on the oxidation temperature. The profiles obtained this way were then compared against direct observations of oxidized layers in specimens obtained in well-controlled oxidation conditions. The general agreement between predictions and observations validated the general applicability of the Wichner model. The results obtained in this project were presented at annual Department of Energy–Advanced Reactor Technologies program reviews and at specialist meetings and conferences and were published in Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) reports and in professional journals. The results published in 2018 had an immediate impact in 2019, when a group from three US universities used ORNL kinetic data as input information in a complex simulation of chronic oxidation by moisture using the same graphite grades during long-time operation in a modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor. Their conclusion, in line with the conclusions obtained at the end of this project, was that chronic graphite oxidation by moisture during normal operation conditions of an HTGR will be limited to a thin surface layer of graphite blocks at the reactor bottom, where the highest temperatures are. That will not affect the integrity of graphite components and reactor safety, provided the impurity concentration in the helium coolant is rigorously controlled and maintained at the design specifications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A semi-coupled aero-servo-hydro numerical model for floating vertical axis wind turbines operating on TLPs

Floating vertical axis wind turbines (VAWTs) have many advantages over floating horizontal axis wind turbines (HAWTs) at large scales in deep water; however, there are several key challenges to overcome as well. One of the challenges is accurate prediction of the dynamic motion and loads performance of a floating VAWT. Here, a new semi-coupled aero-servo-hydro method is developed to assess dynamic responses of a floating VAWT by modeling the system as a 7-degree-of-freedom (7-DOF) model: the supporting platform is considered as a 6-DOF rigid body; the rotation of the rotor is considered as the 7th DOF. Aerodynamic, hydrodynamic, and mooring loads and control of the rotor speed are fully considered. This model can predict performance of floating VAWTs with reasonable fidelity according to validation with OrcaFlex through static and dynamic responses of a floating VAWT with Darrieus rotor operating on a new tension-leg platform (TLP). Being a reduced complexity model, the 7-DOF model can be efficiently applied to assess performance of the newly designed floating VAWT. This model is used to examine the relative contributions of aerodynamic and wave loads imparted to the floating system and the benefits of a three-bladed VAWT over a two-bladed VAWT through dynamic and fatigue analysis.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

AEOLUS: Advances in Experimental Design, Optimal Control, and Learning for Uncertain Complex Systems

Sustained advances in the mathematics of modeling and simulation have resulted in the capability today for routine simulation of a number of large scale complex DOE-relevant systems. As remarkable as this capability for solving the so-called forward problem is, it is typically only the first step-an inner loop within an outer loop that explores the simulation model's parameter space and decision space to characterize uncertainty in the model's predictions, learn unknown model parameters from data, design the most informative experiments, determine optimal control strategies, and create optimal designs. Broadly, what unifies all of these outer loop problems is that they are, in one form or another, optimization problems over parameter/control/design space that are constrained by complex uncertain models. To fully realize the power of scientific simulation as a basis for scientific discovery, technological innovation, and rational decision-making, it is imperative to move beyond simulation to tackle the outer loop of optimization for learning from data, experimental design, and control with complex uncertain models. When the models under consideration are large-scale and complex, and when the optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high (or infinite) dimensional, this constitutes a grand challenge of the highest order, and is intractable with conventional methods. To overcome these challenges, the AEOLUS Center was established to develop a unified mathematical, computational, and statistical framework for (1) Learning predictive models from complex data via Bayesian inference and optimization, and (2) Optimizing experiments, processes, and designs using the resulting uncertain models. These problems are intractable with conventional methods, for several reasons: (1) The simulation problems that govern the inner loops of the optimization problems are expensive to execute (due to severe nonlinearity, heterogeneity, multiphysics/multiscale coupling); (2) The optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high dimensional, often stemming from discretizations of infinite dimensional fields such as initial conditions, sources, or material properties. We argue that the key to overcoming these challenges is to develop new mathematical, computational, and statistical methods that exploit the structure of the Bayesian inference and optimization problems mediated by their underlying complex uncertain models. This structure includes the regularity, sparsity, geometry, low intrinsic dimensionality, and multifidelity nature of the maps from uncertain parameter/optimization variable spaces to the specific objectives targeted: Bayesian inference, optimal experimental design, and optimal control design. Black box methods developed as generic tools are incapable of exploiting this structure. To be successful, we must create, integrate, and cross-fertilize ideas across multiple areas of applied math--including approximation theory, Bayesian inference, data science, experimental design, information theory, machine learning, model reduction, optimal control theory, parallel algorithms, PDE-constrained optimization, randomized algorithms, stochastic optimization, and uncertainty quantification--all while exploiting the structure of the problems at hand. With this goal in mind, we have marshaled a team of leading authorities in these areas. While the methods we develop will be broadly applicable across a wide spectrum of DOE problems in which experiments inform models and the systems those models describe must be optimized under uncertainty, we have chosen a specific area, advanced manufacturing and materials, to drive our work. AMM is characterized by complex models across multiple scales, and is a rich source of challenging problems in inference, experimental design, and optimal control, requiring multifaceted and integrated advances in applied mathematics. As such, AMM serves as an excellent vehicle to motivate and demonstrate the advances in applied mathematics developed by our center.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Review of the impacts of leaking CO 2 gas and brine on groundwater quality

This review paper provides a synthetic view of the existing knowledge and summarizes data and findings of the recent literature on the subject of the potential leaking of CO2 from the deep subsurface storage reservoirs and the effects on aquifer quality. New ideas and concepts are developed and insights are also provided. The objectives of this paper are to: 1) present and discuss potential risks for groundwater degradation due to CO2 gas and brine exposure; 2) identify the set of geochemical data required to assess and predict aquifer responses to CO2 and brine leakage. Specifically, this paper will discuss the following issues: 1) Aquifer responses (such as changes in aqueous phase/groundwater chemical composition; changes in solid phase chemistry and mineralogy; changes in the extent and rate of reactions and processes and possible establishment of a new network of reactions and processes affecting or controlling overall mobility of major, minor, and trace elements; development of conceptual and reduced order models (ROMs) to describe and predict aquifer responses); 2) The degree of impact such as significant or insignificant changes in pH and major, minor, and trace element release that depend on the following controlling variables; the effect of leaking plume characteristics (gas composition, pure CO2 and/or CO2 -CH4 -H2S mixtures and brine concentration and composition (trace metals); aquifer properties [such as initial aqueous phase conditions and mineralogy: minerals controlling sediments’ response (e.g., calcite, Si bearing minerals, etc.)]; overview of relevant hydrogeological and geochemical processes related to the impact of CO2 gas and brine on groundwater quality; the fate of the elements released from sediments or transported with brine (such as precipitation/incorporation into minerals (calcite and other minerals), adsorption, electron transfer reactions, the role of natural attenuation; whether or not the release of metals following exposure to CO2 harmful (risk assessment).

Qafoku, Nikolla P.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Electron Temperature Fluctuation Measurements and Transport Model Validation at Alcator C-Mod

The tokamak is a type of toroidal device used to confine a fusion plasma using large magnetic fields. Tokamaks and stellarators the leading devices for confining plasmas for fusion, and the capability to predict performance in these magnetically confined plasmas is essential for developing a sustainable fusion energy source. The magnetic configuration of tokamaks and stellarators does not exist in Nature, yet, the fundamental processes governing transport in fusion plasmas are universal – turbulence and instabilities, driven by inhomogeneity and asymmetry in the plasma, conspire to transport heat and particles across magnetic field lines and can play critical roles in impurity confinement and generation of intrinsic rotation. Turbulence exists in all plasmas, and in neutral fluids as well. The study of turbulence is essential to developing a fundamental understanding of the nature of the fourth state of matter, plasmas. Experimental studies of turbulence in tokamaks date back to early scattering observations from the late 1970s. Since that time, great advances in turbulence diagnostics have been made, all of which have significantly enhanced our knowledge and understanding of turbulence in tokamaks. Through comparisons with advanced gyrokinetic theory and turbulent-transport models a great deal of evidence exists to implicate turbulent-driven transport as an important mechanism determining transport in all channels: heat, particle and momentum However, prediction and control of turbulent-driven transport remains elusive. Key to development of predictive transport models for magnetically confined fusion plasmas is validation of the nonlinear gyrokinetic transport model, which describes transport due to turbulence. Validation of gyrokinetic codes must include detailed and quantitative comparisons with measured turbulence characteristics, in addition to comparisons with inferred transport levels and equilibrium profiles. For this reason, advanced plasma diagnostics for studying core turbulence are needed in order to assess the accuracy of gyrokinetic models for turbulent-driven particle, heat and momentum transport. New core turbulence diagnostics at the world-class tokamaks Alcator C-Mod at MIT and ASDEX Upgrade at the Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics have been designed, developed, and operated over the course of this project. These new instruments are capable of measuring electron temperature fluctuations and the phase angle between density and temperature fluctuations locally and quantitatively. These new data sets from Alcator C-Mod and ASDEX Upgrade are being used to fill key gaps in our understanding of turbulent transport in tokamaks. In particular, this project has results in new results on the topics of the Transport Shortfall, the role of ETG turbulence in tokamak plasmas, profile stiffness, the LOC/SOC transition, and intrinsic rotation reversals. These data are used in a rigorous process of “Transport model validation”, and this group is a world-leader on using turbulence models to design new hardware and new experiments at tokamaks. A correlation electron cyclotron emission (CECE) diagnostic is an instrument used to measure micro-scale fluctuations (mm-scale, compared to the machine size of meters) of electron temperature in magnetically confined fusion plasmas, such as those in tokamaks and stellarators. These micro-scale fluctuations are associated with drift-wave type turbulence, which leads to enhanced cooling and mixing of particles in fusion plasmas and limits achieving the required temperatures and densities for self-sustained fusion reactions. A CECE system can also be coupled with a reflectometer system that measured micro-scale density fluctuations, and from these simultaneous measurements, one can extract the phase between the density (n) and temperature (T) fluctuations, creating an nT phase diagnostic. Measurements of the fluctuations and the phase angle between them are extremely useful for testing and validating predictive models for the transport of heat and particles in fusion plasmas due to turbulence. Once validated, the models are used to predict performance in ITER and other burning plasmas, such as the MIT ARC design. Most recently, data from the newly developed, so-called “CECE diagnostic” [Cima 1995, White 2008] and “nT phase angle measurements” [Haese 1999, White 2010] ]will be combined with data from density fluctuation diagnostics at ASDEX Upgrade to support a long-term program of physics research in turbulence and transport that will allow for more stringent testing and validation of gyrokinetic turbulent-transport codes. This work directly impacts the development of predictive transport models in the U.S. FES program, such as TGLF, developed by General Atomics, which are used to predict performance in ITER and other burning plasma devices as part of advancing the development of fusion energy sciences.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗