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DOE OSTI2026

Performance and transport in the ARC tokamak

The ARC TM tokamak, a high-field (𝐵 𝑇 = 11.4 T) fusion power plant, under development by Commonwealth Fusion Systems, is studied using a suite of integrated modelling tools to predict its fusion power generation (𝑃𝑓⁡𝑢⁢𝑠), transport and confinement properties. Analysis is based off an ARC operational point scoped first with zero-dimensional (0-D) plasma operational contour (POPCON) modelling to produce 1.13 GW of fusion power. A suite of integrated modelling tools (TRANSP, ASTRA and TORAX) were applied to predict the performance and kinetic profiles of the ARC design point, yielding a range of predicted performance spanning from ∼900 to 1300 MW in rough quantitative agreement with POPCON predictions. The sensitivity of these results to uncertain modelling inputs was probed using scans of pedestal boundary conditions around EPED-predicted values (total pressure and temperature ratios), tungsten concentration and seperatrix density around their nominal assumptions. Pedestal pressure and pedestal top (𝑇 𝑖 /𝑇 𝑒 ) play a large role in 1.5-dimensional performance predictions, able to modify the predicted 𝑃 𝑓⁡𝑢⁢𝑠 by a factor of 2 within reasonable assumptions. High-fidelity core nonlinear gyrokinetic profile predictions, performed using CGYRO (Candy et al. 2016 J. Comput. Phys., vol. 324, pp. 73–93) coupled with the PORTALS (Rodriguez-Fernandez et al. 2024 Nucl. Fusion, vol. 64, 076034; Phys. Plasmas, vol. 31, 2024, 062501) framework, yield substantially lower performance (𝑃 𝑓⁡𝑢⁢𝑠 =677 MW) compared with 0-D and medium-fidelity modelling for nominal assumptions, showing that there is non-negligible uncertainty between models and that future work on SPARC may help resolve discrepancies. Lower overall performance results from significantly reduced volume-averaged densities and temperatures, along with reduced levels of density and temperature peaking. Turbulence and transport are largely dominated by ion temperature gradient across the profile, confirmed by both linear stability and the response of the nonlinear fluxes to changes in gradients, with some impact of kinetic ballooning modes in the deep core. This work represents one of the most complete scoping of potential fusion power plant conditions performed to date. The extensive integrated modelling provides confidence in ARC performance approaching 1 GW, while nonlinear gyrokinetic modelling results in open questions into the physics of density and temperature peaking in fusion-power-plant-relevant operational space. A discussion of results and the role that the SPARC tokamak (Creely et al. 2020 J. Plasma Phys., vol. 86, 865860502) will play in informing ARC design, performance and operation is presented.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Comparison of Adverse Meteorology Inputs for Emergency Management and Safety Basis Dispersion Modeling Applications at SRS

The MELCOR Accident Consequence Calculation System (MACCS), used for safety basis accident analyses at SRS, implements adjustment factors to consider the increased vertical turbulence associated with local surface roughness and the increased lateral turbulence associated with time-based plume meander. The two models used for SRS emergency planning radiological consequence assessment, i.e., Hotspot and Puff/Plume, currently do not have an option to input or apply diffusion adjustments for meander or surface roughness. Adverse meteorology conditions at SRS have been determined as E stability class and 1.3 meters per second wind speed for ground level releases. This is the input used for emergency planning models. Contrastingly safety basis analyses use a different input, representing adverse meteorology values as F stability class and wind speeds of 1.3 meters per second (for a ground level release). This results in an apparent discrepancy between the two approaches. In this report we document the differing modeling assumptions, discuss the logic behind each modeling approach used to represent local roughness and plume meander conditions, and numerically compare dispersion coefficients and concentration estimates obtained from each set of model inputs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic PRA Methods to Evaluate the Impact on Accident Progression of Accident Tolerant Fuels

Accident tolerant fuels (ATFs) are new nuclear fuels developed in response to the accident at the Fukushima power station in March 2011. The goal of ATFs is to withstand accident scenarios through better performance compared to currently employed fuels (e.g., small-scale hydrogen generation). This paper targets a method for evaluating and comparing ATF performance from a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) perspective by employing a newly developed combination of event trees and dynamic PRA methods. Compared to classical PRA methods based on event trees and fault trees, dynamic PRA can evaluate with higher resolution the safety impacts of physics dynamics and the timing/sequencing of events on the accident progression without the need to introduce overly conservative modeling assumptions and success criteria. In this paper, we analyze the impact on the accident progression of three different cladding configurations for two initiating events [a large break loss-of-coolant accident (LB-LOCA) and a station blackout (SBO)] by employing dynamic PRA methods. The goal is to compare the safety performance of ATFs (FeCrAl and Cr-coated cladding) and the currently employed Zr-based clad fuel. We employ two different strategies. The first focuses on the identification of success criteria discrepancies between the accident sequences generated by the classical PRA model and the set of simulation runs generated by dynamic PRA using ATF. The second one, on the other hand, directly uses dynamic PRA to evaluate the impact of timing of events (e.g., recovery actions) on accident progression. In conclusion, by applying these methods to the LB-LOCA and SBO initiating events, we show how dynamic PRA methods can provide analysts with detailed and quantitative information on the safety impact of ATFs.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Minimum spouting velocity of flat-base spouted fluid bed

Experiments were performed on spout characteristics of a cylindrical spout-fluidized bed (I.D. = 10 cm) with different static heights and two materials (Al 2 O 3 and high density polyethylene). Results of minimum spouting velocity obtained in this study were compared with reported correlations for both spouted and spout-fluidized beds. Considerable discrepancies were found between the values obtained using different model equations as well as with respect to experimental results. Based on the Mathur–Gishler correlation, a new correlation is proposed for calculating the minimum spouting velocity that introduces the ratio U/U mf . It was found that the minimum spouting velocity decreases with increasing fluidizing gas velocity (U/U mf ). The pressure drop at the point of minimum spouting velocity is also correlated using this dimensionless group and is presented in this work. Finally, this investigation demonstrates that the use of correlations reported in the literature that focus primarily on conical bottom spouted beds are not applicable to flat-bottom spouted and spout-fluidized beds.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Permafrost Region Greenhouse Gas Budgets Suggest a Weak CO 2 Sink and CH 4 and N 2 O Sources, But Magnitudes Differ Between Top-Down and Bottom-Up Methods

Large stocks of soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) in northern permafrost soils are vulnerable to remobilization under climate change. However, there are large uncertainties in present-day greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets. We compare bottom-up (data-driven upscaling and process-based models) and top-down (atmospheric inversion models) budgets of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) as well as lateral fluxes of C and N across the region over 2000–2020. Bottom-up approaches estimate higher land-to-atmosphere fluxes for all GHGs. Both bottom-up and top-down approaches show a sink of CO 2 in natural ecosystems (bottom-up: -29 (-709, 455), top-down: -587 (-862, -312) Tg CO 2 -C yr -1 ) and sources of CH 4 (bottom-up: 38 (22, 53), top-down: 15 (11, 18) Tg CH 4 -C y -1 ) and N 2 O (bottom-up: 0.7 (0.1, 1.3), top-down: 0.09 (-0.19, 0.37) Tg N 2 O-N yr -1 ). The combined global warming potential of all three gases (GWP-100) cannot be distinguished from neutral. Over shorter timescales (GWP-20), the region is a net GHG source because CH 4 dominates the total forcing. The net CO 2 sink in Boreal forests and wetlands is largely offset by fires and inland water CO 2 emissions as well as CH 4 emissions from wetlands and inland waters, with a smaller contribution from N 2 O emissions. Priorities for future research include the representation of inland waters in process-based models and the compilation of process-model ensembles for CH 4 and N 2 O. Discrepancies between bottom-up and top-down methods call for analyses of how prior flux ensembles impact inversion budgets, more and well-distributed in situ GHG measurements and improved resolution in upscaling techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multi-machine validation of plasma initiation modelling and prospects for future devices: Predicting plasma initiation using only hardware design and control room input data

This paper reports on the generic prediction capability of full electromagnetic plasma initiation modelling with DYON, which was carried out for the first time in fusion research by the joint modelling of the International Tokamak Physics Activity—Integrating Operation Scenario group. The following devices were included in the experiment database: VEST (spherical torus, copper coils, Stainless steel wall, R/a = 0.3 m/0.2 m, V v = 3.7 m 3 ), MAST-U (spherical torus, copper coils, C wall, R/a = 0.7 m/0.5 m, V v = 55 m 3 ), EAST (conventional tokamak, superconducting coils, metallic wall, R/a = 1.85 m/0.5 m, V v = 38 m 3 ), DIII-D (conventional tokamak, copper coils, C wall, R/a = 1.67 m/0.65 m, V v = 35 m 3 ), and KSTAR (conventional tokamak, superconducting coils, C wall, R/a = 1.8 m/0.5 m, V v = 55 m 3 ). Despite the different hardware features of the devices, the required operating spaces of the loop voltage induction and prefill gas pressure for inductive plasma initiation in each device were successfully reproduced by the predictive simulations with DYON using only the individual hardware design and the control room input data for each discharge. This successful validation across multiple machines demonstrates that the full electromagnetic DYON modelling can capture the essential physics of inductive plasma initiation. The simulation settings commonly employed for all modelling and the modifications necessary to account for the discrepancies between individual devices are reported. Predictions for ITER based on the multi-machine validation indicate that a wide range of prefill gas pressures exists for the Townsend breakdown and the plasma burn-through (0.01–1.5 mPa).

DYON↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hydrodynamic simulations of electron-capture supernovae: progenitor and dimension dependence

ABSTRACT We present neutrino-transport hydrodynamic simulations of electron-capture supernovae (ECSNe) in flash with new two-dimensional (2D) collapsing progenitor models. These progenitor models feature the 2D modelling of oxygen-flame propagation until the onset of core collapse. We perform axisymmetric simulations with six progenitor models that, at the time of collapse, span a range of propagating flame front radii. For comparison, we also perform a simulation with the same set-up using the canonical, spherically symmetrical progenitor model n8.8. We found that the variations in the progenitor models inherited from simulations of stellar evolution and flame propagation do not significantly alter the global properties of the neutrino-driven ECSN explosion, such as the explosion energy (∼1.36–1.48 × 1050 erg) and the mass (∼0.017–0.018 M⊙) and composition of the ejecta. Due to aspherical perturbations induced by the 2D flame, the ejecta contains a small amount (≲1.8 × 10−3 M⊙) of low-Ye (0.35 < Ye < 0.4) component. The baryonic mass of the protoneutron star is ∼1.34 M⊙ (∼1.357 M⊙) with the new (n8.8) progenitor models when simulations end at ∼400 ms and the discrepancy is due to updated weak-interaction rates in the progenitor evolutionary simulations. Our results reflect the nature of ECSN progenitors containing a strongly degenerate oxygen–neon–magnesium (ONeMg) core and suggest a standardized ECSN explosion initialized by ONeMg core collapse. Moreover, we carry out a rudimentary three-dimensional simulation and find that the explosion properties are fairly compatible with the 2D counterpart. Our paper facilitates a more thorough understanding of ECSN explosions following the ONeMg core collapse, though more three-dimensional simulations are still needed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Galaxy-multiplet clustering from DESI DR2

We present an efficient estimator for higher-order galaxy clustering using small groups of nearby galaxies, or multiplets. Using the Luminous Red Galaxy (LRG) sample from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 2, we identify galaxy multiplets as discrete objects and measure their cross-correlations with the general galaxy field. Our results show that the multiplets exhibit stronger clustering bias as they trace more massive dark matter halos than individual galaxies. When comparing the observed clustering statistics with the mock catalogs generated from the N-body simulation AbacusSummit, we find that the mocks underpredict multiplet clustering despite reproducing the galaxy two-point auto-correlation reasonably well. This discrepancy indicates that the standard Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) model is insufficient to describe the properties of galaxy multiplets, revealing the greater constraining power of this higher-order statistic on galaxy-halo connection and the possibility that multiplets are specific to additional assembly bias. We demonstrate that incorporating secondary biases into the HOD model improves agreement with the observed multiplet statistics, specifically by allowing galaxies to preferentially occupy halos in denser environments. Our results highlight the potential of utilizing multiplet clustering, beyond traditional two-point correlation measurements, to break degeneracies in models describing the galaxy-dark matter connection.

cosmology↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Critical Exploration of the Efficiency Impacts of Demand Response From HVAC in Commercial Buildings

Increasing quantities of renewable energy generation has yielded a need for greater energy storage capacity in power systems. Thermal storage in variable air volume (VAV) heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) in commercial buildings has been identified as an inexpensive source of grid storage, but the true costs are not known. Recent literature explores the inefficiency associated with providing grid services from these HVAC-based demand response (DR) resources by employing a battery analogy to calculate round-trip efficiency (RTE). Results vary significantly across studies and in some cases reported efficiencies are strikingly low. This article has three objectives to address these prior results. First, we synthesize and expand on insights into existing literature by systematically exploring the potential causes for the discrepancies in results. We reinforce previous work indicating baseline modeling may drive differences across studies and deduce that control accuracy plays a role in the major differences between experiments and simulation. Second, we discuss why the RTE metric is problematic for DR applications, discuss another proposed metric, additional energy consumption (AEC), and propose an extension, which we call uninstructed energy consumption (UEC), to evaluate DR performance. Finally, we explore the merits of different metrics using experimental data and highlight UEC's reduced sensitivity to the characteristics of the DR signal than previously proposed metrics.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2017

Development on the National Ignition Facility of a High Energy Density Opacity Platform

X-ray opacity is a crucial factor in all radiation-hydrodynamics calculations, yet it is one of the least validated of the material properties in simulation codes for high-energy-density plasmas. Recent opacity experiments at the Sandia Z-machine have shown up to factors of two discrepancies between theory and experiment for various mid-Z elements (Fe, Cr, Ni). These discrepancies raise doubts regarding the accuracy of the opacity models which are used in ICF and stewardship as well as in astrophysics. Therefore, a new experimental opacity platform has been developed on the National Ignition Facility (NIF), not only to verify the Z-machine experimental results, but also to extend the experiments to other temperatures and densities. Within the context of the national opacity strategy, the first NIF experiments were directed towards measuring the opacity of iron at a temperature of ~160 eV and an electron density of ~7xl021 cm-3(Anchor 1). The Z data agree with theory at these conditions, providing a reference point for validation of the NIF platform. Development shots on NIF have demonstrated the ability to create a sufficiently bright point backlighter using an imploding plastic capsule, and also a combined hohlraum, sample and laser drive able to produce iron plasmas at the desired conditions. Spectrometer qualification has been completed, albeit with additional improvements planned, and the first iron absorption spectra have now been obtained.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Experiments for SINBAD: Evaluation of Oak Ridge Health Physics Research Reactor Operation Data for CAAS Benchmark Creation [Slides]

This report was a real information preservation and dissemination work with a lot of legacy content that was found and used. There was an abundance of uncertainty, discrepancy, and contradictory information. Yet, a detailed, functional SCALE model was built, and the benchmark created is useful for shielding and CAAs validation work. Sulfur fluence C/E ratios are large (2 to 5), so different benchmark metrics were studied. Neutron fluence, element 57 dose, and other dosimetry responses at 3 meters C/E ratios are below 1.5 for bare and steel configurations. Additional promising metrics as dose per unit fluence and steel shield attenuation were computed.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Galaxy–Galaxy Strong Lensing Cross Section and the Internal Distribution of Matter in ΛCDM Substructure

Abstract Strong gravitational lensing offers a powerful probe of the detailed distribution of matter in lenses, while magnifying and bringing faint background sources into view. Observed strong lensing by massive galaxy clusters, which are often in complex dynamical states, has also been used to map their dark matter (DM) substructures on smaller scales. Deep high-resolution imaging has revealed the presence of strong lensing events associated with these substructures, namely galaxy-scale sub-halos. However, an inventory of these observed galaxy–galaxy strong lensing (GGSL) events is noted to be discrepant with state-of-the-art ΛCDM simulations. Cluster sub-halos appear to be over-concentrated compared to their simulated counterparts yielding an order-of-magnitude higher value of GGSL. In this paper, we explore the possibility of resolving this observed discrepancy by redistributing the mass within observed cluster sub-halos in ways that are consistent within the ΛCDM paradigm of structure formation. Lensing mass reconstructions from data provide constraints on the mass enclosed within apertures and are agnostic to the detailed mass profile within them. Therefore, as the detailed density profile within cluster sub-halos currently remains unconstrained by data, we are afforded the freedom to redistribute the enclosed mass. We investigate if rearranging the mass to a more centrally concentrated density profile helps alleviate the GGSL discrepancy. We report that refitting cluster sub-halos to the ubiquitous ΛCDM-motivated Navarro–Frenk–White profile, and further modifying them to include significant baryonic components, does not resolve this tension. A resolution to this persisting GGSL discrepancy may require more careful exploration of alternative DM models.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

NASA NTRS1978

Universal time - Results from lunar laser ranging

A least squares analysis of lunar laser ranging observations from the McDonald Observatory is used to estimate universal time. In addition to the ranging observations, the analysis simultaneously takes into account the parameters representing the locations of McDonald and the lunar retroreflectors, the orbits of the earth and the moon, and the moon's physical libration. The root-mean-square of the postfit range residuals for the 5-year period from October 1970 to November 1975 is 28 cm. The results are compared with those obtained by the Bureau International de l'Heure and by Stolz et al. (1976), and the reasons for discrepancies are discussed. It is suggested that problems in modeling the moon's motion make difficult the determination of UT with the accuracy inherent in the ranging observations.

King, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS1979

A brief summary of verification results for the spectral ocean wave model /SOWM/ by means of wave height measurements obtained by Geos 3

Significant wave heights calculated using a computer-based spectral ocean wave model (Pierson et al., 1966; Salfi, 1974; Lazanoff and Stevenson, 1975) from meteorological data have been compared with significant wave heights measured by Geos 3 for 44 orbit segments obtained during 1975 and 1976. The model specifications were found to be biased too low. Discrepancies between calculated and measured wave heights are also attributable to the poor specifications of the winds over the northern hemisphere oceans.

Pierson, W. J.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Solar nutrinos

The topics covered include: an overview of the subject of solar neutrinos, a brief summary of the theory of stellar evolution, a description of the main sources of solar neutrinos, a brief summary of the results of the Brookhaven C1-37 experiment, an anaysis of the principal solar neutrino experiments, and a discussion of how solar neutrino experiments can be used to detect the collapse of stars in the Galaxy. A description of how the Ga-71 experiment can be used to decide whether the origin of the present discrepancy between theory and observation lies in conventional solar models or conventional physics is presented.

Bahcall, J. N.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Numerical simulation of steady supersonic flow over spinning bodies of revolution

A recently reported parabolized Navier-Stokes code has been employed to compute the supersonic flowfield about a spinning cone and spinning and nonspinning ogive cylinder and boattailed bodies of revolution at moderate incidence. The computations were performed for flow conditions where extensive measurements for wall pressure, boundary-layer velocity profiles, and Magnus force had been obtained. Comparisons between the computational results and experiment indicate excellent agreement for angles of attack up to 6 deg. At angles greater than 6 deg discrepancies are noted which are tentatively attributed to turbulence modeling errors. The comparisons for Magnus effects show that the code accurately predicts the effects of body shape for the selected models.

Sturek, W. B.↗

NASA NTRS1984

A flight-test and simulation evaluation of the longitudinal final approach and landing performance of an automatic system for a light wing loading STOL aircraft equipped with wing spoilers

As part of a comprehensive flight-test investigation of short takeoff and landing (STOL) operating systems for the terminal systems for the terminal area, an automatic landing system has been developed and evaluated for a light wing-loading turboprop-powered aircraft. An advanced digital avionics system performed display, navigation, guidance, and control functions for the test aircraft. Control signals were generated in order to command powered actuators for all conventional controls and for a set of symmetrically driven wing spoilers. This report describes effects of the spoiler control on longitudinal autoland (automatic landing) performance. Flight-test results, with and without spoiler control, are presented and compared with available (basically, conventional takeoff and landing) performance criteria. These comparisons are augmented by results from a comprehensive simulation of the controlled aircraft that included representations of the microwave landing system navigation errors that were encountered in flight as well as expected variations in atmospheric turbulence and wind shear. Flight-test results show that the addition of spoiler control improves the touchdown performance of the automatic landing system. Spoilers improve longitudinal touchdown and landing pitch-attitude performance, particularly in tailwind conditions. Furthermore, simulation results indicate that performance would probably be satisfactory for a wider range of atmospheric disturbances than those encountered in flight. Flight results also indicate that the addition of spoiler control during the final approach does not result in any measurable change in glidepath track performance, and results in a very small deterioration in airspeed tracking. This difference contrasts with simulations results, which indicate some improvement in glidepath tracking and no appreciable change in airspeed tracking. The modeling problem in the simulation that contributed to this discrepancy with flight was not resolved.

Brown, S. C.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Characteristics of Radio-Frequency Circuits Utilizing Ferroelectric Capacitors

Ferroelectric capacitors, most commonly used in memory circuits and variable components, were studied in simple analog radio-frequency circuits such as the RLC resonator and Colpitts oscillator. The goal was to characterize the RF circuits in terms of frequency of oscillation, gain, etc, using ferroelectric capacitors. Frequencies of oscillation of both circuits were measured and studied a more accurate resonant frequency can be obtained using the ferroelectric capacitors. Many experiments were conducted and data collected. A model to simulate the experimental results will be developed. Discrepancies in gain and frequency in these RF circuits when conventional capacitors are replaced with ferroelectric ones were studied. These results will enable circuit designers to anticipate the effects of using ferroelectric components in their radio- frequency applications.

Eskridge, Michael↗