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At least 955 records · Page 53
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Improvement of Coal Power Plant Dry Cooling Technology through Application of Cold Thermal Energy Storage

The U.S. power infrastructure is currently heavily reliant on water cooling. The power plants in the U.S. account for approximately 40% of freshwater withdrawals, with 90% of it used in condenser cooling. The most used cooling technology in coal-fired power plants is a once-through condenser; however, this cooling method requires high water withdrawal rates and results in thermal pollution of the water source. Wet WCTs offer an alternative to once-through condensers due to much lower water withdrawals. However, these systems suffer from water consumption through evaporation making them undesirable options in areas subject to droughts and in arid areas. The direct dry cooled condensers (ACCs) and dry cooling towers (DCT) account for 1.8%, hybrid cooling (ACC + WCT) accounts for 0.5%, while other cooling technologies represent the rest (0.7%). The ACC/DCTs represent an attractive alternative for power plants; however, this technology has not been widely adopted in the US (less than 2% of power plants) due to its negative impact on plant performance. As a rule of thumb, dry cooling results in performance penalty equivalent to approximately 2%-point efficiency loss compared to wet cooling, although the actual magnitude varies with ambient dry bulb temperature, DBT which may vary considerably during the day. As DBT increases, the plant power output decreases, reaching a minimum at the hottest period of the day, which usually coincides with the highest electricity demand for air condition load. Therefore, performance of power plants using DCT/ACC cooling technology is the lowest during the summer mid-day when ambient temperature is the highest. For example, the decrease of the inlet air temperature to the DCT/ACC by 2 Deg C could generate up to 5% additional power at peak demand. It is, therefore, important to improve dry cooling technology to maintain the viability of coal-fired power plants in a carbon constrained future. The method for reducing the cooling air temperature and keeping it constant would mitigate this problem significantly. Objectives of this project were to develop, design, evaluate, and demonstrate a cost-effective system for improving performance of a DCT or ACC for thermal (coal-fired) power plant applications using a low-cost heat storage materials, such as pervious concrete (PC) and phase change material (PCM). Thus, the study focused on development of the system(s) that could be used to alleviate the difficulties in operating DCT/ACC during the summer months by storing cold energy during the nighttime in inexpensive materials PC and PCM and using it during the hottest period(s) of the day. Since very large quantities of cold energy need to be stored to make an impact on performance of a large power plant, it is essential that the storage materials and associated cold energy storage design(s) are inexpensive and the system is simple to build, maintain and operate. To achieve the project objectives, a comprehensive approach, including material development and characterization, component and system modeling, and laboratory- and prototype-scale experiments, was employed including modeling of the system components and of the entire system, development (engineering) of the materials for the heat storage modules of the Cold Thermal Energy Storage System (CTESS) and determination of their properties, design, manufacturing and setup of the laboratory- and prototype-scale test facility and testing, design, manufacturing and setup of the prototype-scale test facility. A modular design of CTESS was employed, where representative modules were designed as the integrated direct contact heat exchanger and thermal energy storage (TES) system. CTESS modules were manufactured and tested. Two prototype-scale designs of the CTESS modules were developed and tested. The use of CTESS increases plant generation increases since it lowers air temperature entering ACC/DCT and keeps it constant during the hottest time of the day. For a PCM-based CTESS, the ambient air temperature is lowered close to the PCM phase change temperature. The duration of the cooling effect depends on the latent heat and mass of PCM in the CTESS. For this project, commercial grade CaCl2 hexahydrate (CaCl2·6H2O or CC6) PCM with phase change temperature of 25 Deg. C was used due to its low cost. For practical reasons, the CTESS was designed to maintain the cooling effect for four hours. The low phase change temperature associated with the commercial grade PCM used in CTESS results in considerably higher improvement in net generation compared to the laboratory (pure) grade. The resistance to heat transfer results in lower net generation compared to the ideal case where resistance to heat transfer is zero. The results demonstrate that CTESS is effective in improving the performance of a dry cooling system. However, its effectiveness depends on the relationship between the ambient air conditions and PCM phase change temperature. As is the case with the heat rejection system, for the best performance, the PCM used in CTESS would need to be matched to the ambient air conditions. The results obtained in this report for selected geographical locations are valid for CC6 and demonstrate that the level of performance to be achieved by the technology will be location-dependent, as is the case with the air cooled condensers. The methodology for engineering of PC-PCM-based heat storage medium is applicable to other PCMs that may need to be used for other ambient air conditions and geographical locations.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Small-scale Structure of Photospheric Convection Retrieved by a Deconvolution Technique Applied to Hinode /SP Data

Solar granules are bright patterns surrounded by dark channels, called intergranular lanes, in the solar photosphere and are a manifestation of overshooting convection. Observational studies generally find stronger upflows in granules and weaker downflows in intergranular lanes. This trend is, however, inconsistent with the results of numerical simulations in which downflows are stronger than upflows through the joint action of gravitational acceleration/deceleration and pressure gradients. One cause of this discrepancy is the image degradation caused by optical distortion and light diffraction and scattering that takes place in an imaging instrument. We apply a deconvolution technique to Hinode /SP data in an attempt to recover the original solar scene. Our results show a significant enhancement in both the convective upflows and downflows but particularly for the latter. After deconvolution, the up- and downflows reach maximum amplitudes of −3.0 km s{sup −1} and +3.0 km s{sup −1} at an average geometrical height of roughly 50 km, respectively. We found that the velocity distributions after deconvolution match those derived from numerical simulations. After deconvolution, the net LOS velocity averaged over the whole field of view lies close to zero as expected in a rough sense from mass balance.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1991

Key results of the mini-dome Fresnel lens concentrator array development program under recently completed NASA and SDIO SBIR projects

Since 1986, ENTECH and the NASA Lewis Research Center have been developing a new photovoltaic concentrator system for space power applications. The unique refractive system uses small, dome shaped Fresnel lenses to focus sunlight onto high efficiency photovoltaic concentrator cells which use prismatic cell covers to further increase their performance. Highlights of the five-year development include near Air Mass Zero (AM0) Lear Jet flight testing of mini-dome lenses (90 pct. net optical efficiency achieved); tests verifying sun-pointing error tolerance with negligible power loss; simulator testing of prism-covered GaAs concentrator cells (24 pct. AM0 efficiency); testing of prism-covered Boeing GaAs/GaSb tandem cells (31 pct. AM0 efficiency); and fabrication and outdoor testing of a 36-lens/cell element panel. These test results have confirmed previous analytical predictions which indicate substantial performance improvements for this technology over current array systems. Based on program results to date, it appears than an array power density of 300 watts/sq m and a specific power of 100 watts/kg can be achieved in the near term. All components of the array appear to be readily manufacturable from space-durable materials at reasonable cost. A concise review is presented of the key results leading to the current array, and further development plans for the future are briefly discussed.

Oneill, Mark J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Sensible and latent heat flux estimates in Antarctica

The assumption has been made that the net annual contribution of water by the processes of deposition and sublimation to the Antarctic Ice Sheet is zero. The U.S. Antarctic Program started installing reliable automatic weather stations on the Antarctic Continent in 1980. The initial units were equipped to measure wind speed, wind direction, air pressure, and air temperature. During the 1983-1984 field season in Antarctica, three units were installed that measured a vertical air temperature difference between the nominal heights of 0.5 m and 3.0 m and relative humidity at a nominal height of 3 m. The measurements of the vertical air temperature difference and the relative humidity are the minimum required to estimate the sensible and latent heat fluxes to the air, while not exceeding the available energy requirements for the weather stations. The estimates of the net annual sublimation and deposition on the Ross Ice Shelf amount to 20 to 80 percent of the annual accumulation. We conclude that the assumption that annual sublimation and deposition are zero is not valid under Antarctic conditions.

Stearns, Charles R.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Interannual variability of the global net radiation balance and its consequence on global energy transport

Global cloudiness and radiation budget data from Nimbus 6 and 7 are used to investigate the role of cloud and surface radiative forcing and elements of the earth's general circulation. Although globally integrated cloud forcing is nearly zero, there are large regional imbalances and well regulated processes in the shortwave and longwave spectrum that control the meridional gradient structure of the net radiation balance and the factors modulating the east-west oriented North Africa-western Pacific energy transport dipole. The analysis demonstrates that clouds play a dual role in both the shortwave and longwave spectra in terms of tropical and midlatitude east-west gradients. The key result is that cloud forcing, although not always the principle regulator of interannual variability of the global climate, serves to reinforce the basic three-cell meridional circulation.

Smith, Eric A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Controlling Antiferromagnetic Magnon Polarization by Interfacial Exchange Interaction

We demonstrate highly efficient control of antiferromagnetic (AFM) magnon spins by the interfacial exchange interaction in heterostructures of ferrimagnetic yttrium iron garnet (YIG) and AFM Cr 2 O 3 . At low temperatures, Cr 2 O 3 is antiferromagnetically ordered. The interfacial exchange interaction exerted by YIG lifts the degeneracy between the AFM magnon modes in Cr 2 O 3 , resulting in a net spin polarization and a spin current dominated by left-handed magnons, even at zero magnetic field, which is detected by the spin Seebeck effect with a 5-nm-thick Pt film. In the AFM magnon-dominated region, even if the magnetic field is not sufficiently strong to induce the spin-flop transition in Cr 2 O 3 , the total spin Seebeck signal polarity flips when the YIG magnetization switches. It clearly indicates that the Cr 2 O 3 magnon polarization is controlled by YIG magnetization through the interfacial exchange interaction. The demonstration of the efficient control of AFM magnon polarization opens a pathway to manipulate AFM magnon quantum states using FM-AFM heterostructures.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Incommensurate magnetic orders and topological Hall effect in the square-net centrosymmetric EuGa 2 Al 2 system

Neutron diffraction on the centrosymmetric square-net magnet EuGa 2 Al 2 reveals multiple incommensurate magnetic states (AFM1, 2, 3) in zero field. In applied field, a new magnetic phase (A) is identified from magnetization and transport measurements, bounded by two of the μ 0 H=0 incommensurate magnetic phases (AFM1, helical, and AFM3, cycloidal) with different moment orientations. Moreover, magnetotransport measurements indicate the presence of a topological Hall effect, with maximum values centered in the A phase. Together, these results render EuGa 2 Al 2 a material with noncoplanar or topological spin texture in applied field. X-ray diffraction reveals an out-of-plane (OOP) charge density wave (CDW) below T CDW ~50 K while the magnetic propagation vector lies in plane below T N =19.5 K. Together these data point to a new route to realizing in-plane noncollinear spin textures through an OOP CDW. In turn, these noncollinear spin textures may be unstable against the formation of topological spin textures in an applied field.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1952

Experimental Aerodynamic Derivatives of a Sinusoidally Oscillating Airfoil in Two-Dimensional Flow

Experimental measurements of the aerodynamic reactions on a symmetrical airfoil oscillating harmonically in a two-dimensional flow are presented and analyzed. Harmonic motions include pure pitch and pure translation, for several amplitudes and superimposed on an initial angle of attack, as well as combined pitch and translation. The apparatus and testing program are described briefly and the necessary theoretical background is presented. In general, the experimental results agree remarkably well with the theory, especially in the case of the pure motions. The net work per cycle for a motion corresponding to flutter is experimentally determined to be zero. Considerable consistent data for pure pitch were obtained from a search of available reference material, and several definite Reynolds number effects are evident.

Halfman, Robert L↗
NASA NTRS1975

Drift-free magnetic geometries in adiabatic motion

There exist magnetic fields in which particles bouncing between mirror points experience no net first-order guiding center drift. In such fields, even though the instantaneous gradient and curvature drifts are not zero, their total effect integrated over any bounce period vanishes, so that particles merely wobble back and forth around fixed field lines. A class of two-dimensional drift-free fields, somewhat resembling the configuration found in the geomagnetic tail, is described; several proofs of the drift-free property are given, including some that suggest that the property of vanishing net drift might extend to nonadiabatic orbits. A general criterion for identifying drift-free fields is developed, and a case of motion in a nearly drift-free field is also investigated. The theory is applied to the plasma sheet in the earth's magnetotail, and observational evidence is presented suggesting that the magnetic field there indeed approaches a drift-free configuration.

Stern, D. P.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Determination of the Thermal Offset of the Eppley Precision Spectral Pyranometer

Eppley's precision spectral pyranometer (PSP) is used in networks around the world to measure downwelling diffuse and global solar irradiance at the surface of the Earth. In recent years several studies have shown significant discrepancy between irradiances measured by pyranometers and those computed by atmospheric radiative transfer models. Pyranometer measurements have been questioned because observed diffuse irradiances sometimes are below theoretical minimum values for a pure molecular atmosphere, and at night the instruments often produce nonzero signals ranging between + 5 and - 10 W/sq m. We install thermistor sondes in the body of a PSP as well as on its inner dome to monitor the temperature gradients within the instrument, and we operate a pyrgeometer (PIR) instrument side by side with the PSP. We derive a relationship between the PSP output and thermal radiative exchange by the dome and the detector and a relationship between the PSP output and the PIR thermopile output (net-IR). We determine the true PSP offset by quickly capping the instrument at set time intervals. For a ventilated and shaded PSP, the thermal offset can reach - 15 W/sq m under clear skies, whereas it remains close to zero for low overcast clouds. We estimate the PSP thermal offset by two methods: (1) using the PSP temperatures and (2) using the PIR net-IR signal. The offset computed from the PSP temperatures yields a reliable estimate of the true offset (+/- 1 W/sq m). The offset computed from net-IR is consistent with the true offset at night and under overcast skies but predicts only part of the true range under clear skies.

Haeffelin, Martial↗
DOE OSTI2016

Spatial and successional dynamics of microbial biofilm communities in a grassland stream ecosystem

Biofilms represent a metabolically active and structurally complex component of freshwater ecosystems. Ephemeral prairie streams are hydrologically harsh and prone to frequent perturbation. Elucidating both functional and structural community changes over time within prairie streams provides a general understanding of microbial responses to environmental disturbance. In this study, we examined microbial succession of biofilm communities at three sites in a third-order stream at Konza Prairie over a 2- to 64-day period. Microbial abundance (bacterial abundance, chlorophyll a concentrations) increased and never plateaued during the experiment. Net primary productivity (net balance of oxygen consumption and production) of the developing biofilms did not differ statistically from zero until 64 days suggesting a balance of the use of autochthonous and allochthonous energy sources until late succession. Bacterial communities (MiSeq analyses of the V4 region of 16S rRNA) established quickly. Bacterial richness, diversity and evenness were high after 2 days and increased over time. Several dominant bacterial phyla (Beta-, Alphaproteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Gemmatimonadetes, Acidobacteria, Chloroflexi) and genera ( Luteolibacter, Flavobacterium, Gemmatimonas, Hydrogenophaga ) differed in relative abundance over space and time. Bacterial community composition differed across both space and successional time. Pairwise comparisons of phylogenetic turnover in bacterial community composition indicated that early-stage succession (≤16 days) was driven by stochastic processes, whereas later stages were driven by deterministic selection regardless of site. Finally, our data suggest that microbial biofilms predictably develop both functionally and structurally indicating distinct successional trajectories of bacterial communities in this ecosystem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Updated kinematic constraints on a dark disk

We update the method of the Holmberg and Flynn study, including an updated model of the Milky Way’s interstellar gas, radial velocities, an updated reddening map, and a careful statistical analysis, to bound the allowed surface density and scale height of a dark disk. We pay careful attention to the self-consistency of the model, including the gravitational influence of the dark disk on other disk components, and to the net velocity of the tracer stars. We find that the data set exhibits a non-zero bulk velocity in the vertical direction as well as a displacement from the expected location at the Galactic midplane. If not properly accounted for, these features would bias the bound toward low dark disk mass. We therefore perform our analysis two ways. In the first, using the traditional method, we subtract the mean velocity and displacement from the tracers’ phase space distributions. In the second method, we perform a non-equilibrium version of the HF method to derive a bound on the dark disk parameters for an oscillating tracer distribution. Despite updates in the mass model and reddening map, the traditional method results remain consistent with those of HF2000. The second, non-equilibrium technique, however, allows a surface density as large as 14 M{sub ⊙} pc{sup −2} (and as small as 0 M{sub ⊙} pc{sup −2}), demonstrating much weaker constraints. For both techniques, the bound on surface density is weaker for larger scale height. In future analyses of Gaia data it will be important to verify whether the tracer populations are in equilibrium.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1996

Discrete Deterministic and Stochastic Petri Nets

Petri nets augmented with timing specifications gained a wide acceptance in the area of performance and reliability evaluation of complex systems exhibiting concurrency, synchronization, and conflicts. The state space of time-extended Petri nets is mapped onto its basic underlying stochastic process, which can be shown to be Markovian under the assumption of exponentially distributed firing times. The integration of exponentially and non-exponentially distributed timing is still one of the major problems for the analysis and was first attacked for continuous time Petri nets at the cost of structural or analytical restrictions. We propose a discrete deterministic and stochastic Petri net (DDSPN) formalism with no imposed structural or analytical restrictions where transitions can fire either in zero time or according to arbitrary firing times that can be represented as the time to absorption in a finite absorbing discrete time Markov chain (DTMC). Exponentially distributed firing times are then approximated arbitrarily well by geometric distributions. Deterministic firing times are a special case of the geometric distribution. The underlying stochastic process of a DDSPN is then also a DTMC, from which the transient and stationary solution can be obtained by standard techniques. A comprehensive algorithm and some state space reduction techniques for the analysis of DDSPNs are presented comprising the automatic detection of conflicts and confusions, which removes a major obstacle for the analysis of discrete time models.

MATHEMATICAL MODELS↗
DOE OSTI2016

A modeling comparison of deep greenhouse gas emissions reduction scenarios by 2030 in California

California aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. We compare six energy models that have played various roles in informing the state policymakers in setting climate policy goals and targets. These models adopt a range of modeling structures, including stock-turnover back-casting models, a least-cost optimization model, macroeconomic/macro-econometric models, and an electricity dispatch model. Results from these models provide useful insights in terms of the transformations in the energy system required, including efficiency improvements in cars, trucks, and buildings, electrification of end-uses, low- or zero-carbon electricity and fuels, aggressive adoptions of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), demand reduction, and large reductions of non-energy GHG emissions. Some of these studies also suggest that the direct economic costs can be fairly modest or even generate net savings, while the indirect macroeconomic benefits are large, as shifts in employment and capital investments could have higher economic returns than conventional energy expenditures. These models, however, often assume perfect markets, perfect competition, and zero transaction costs. They also do not provide specific policy guidance on how these transformative changes can be achieved. Greater emphasis on modeling uncertainty, consumer behaviors, heterogeneity of impacts, and spatial modeling would further enhance policymakers' ability to design more effective and targeted policies. Here, this paper presents an example of how policymakers, energy system modelers and stakeholders interact and work together to develop and evaluate long-term state climate policy targets. Lastly, even though this paper focuses on California, the process of dialogue and interactions, modeling results, and lessons learned can be generally adopted across different regions and scales.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Iron Oxides

Abstract: Fe oxides are common clay-sized oxide, oxyhydroxide and hydroxide soil minerals. They are compounds of Fe, O, and H that have structures based on close-packed arrays of O. The octahedral and tetrahedral cavities within these arrays are filled with either Fe3+ or Fe2+ to form Fe(O/OH)6, FeO6, or FeO4 structural units. All of the naturally occurring Fe oxide minerals usually undergo some degree of isomorphous substitution of other metal ions for Fe in their structures. Relatively simple techniques may be used to identify Fe oxides in the field based on their typical colors and magnetic properties. In the laboratory, a variety of instrumental techniques can be used to confirm phase identity and to quantify amount. Of these, X-ray diffraction, infrared spectroscopy, electron microscopy, thermal analysis, and Mössbauer spectroscopy are the most commonly used techniques. As oxides, the functional groups on their surfaces may have positive, negative, or no charge depending on pH and on the concentration and nature of other ions in the contact solution. A net positive surface charge usually is observed in soils because Fe oxides have a point-of-zero-charge in the neutral or slightly basic pHs. The functional groups on the surface form complexes with cations and anions from the aqueous phase. Their sorption and electron-buffering properties significantly affect the geochemical cycles of almost all elements having agronomic or environmental significance.

electron-transfer chemistry↗
NASA NTRS1986

Ion beam sputter etching

An ion beam etching process which forms extremely high aspect ratio surface microstructures using thin sputter masks is utilized in the fabrication of integrated circuits. A carbon rich sputter mask together with unmasked portions of a substrate is bombarded with inert gas ions while simultaneous carbon deposition occurs. The arrival of the carbon deposit is adjusted to enable the sputter mask to have a near zero or even slightly positive increase in thickness with time while the unmasked portions have a high net sputter etch rate.

Banks, Bruce A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Thermal/vacuum vs. thermal atmospheric testing of space flight electronic assemblies

For space flight hardware, the thermal vacuum environmental test is the best test of a system's flight worthiness. Substituting an atmospheric pressure thermal test for a thermal/vacuum test can effectively reduce piece part temperatures by 20 C or more, even for low power density designs. Similar reductions in test effectiveness can also result from improper assembly level T/V test boundary conditions. The net result of these changes may reduce the effective test temperatures to the point where there is zero or negative margin over the flight thermal environment.

Gibbel, Mark↗
DOE OSTI2017

Lignite-plus-Biomass to Synthetic Jet Fuel with CO2 Capture and Storage: Design, Cost, and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Analysis for a Near-Term First-of-a-Kind Demonstration Project and Prospective Future Commercial Plants

We report on a 30-month design study for a first-of-a-kind (FOAK) demonstration plant that would be built at a site near Meridian, Mississippi, to coprocess lignite coal and woody biomass into jet fuel. The design uses an oxygen-blown TRIG™ gasifier developed by KBR and Southern Company. Fischer-Tropsch conversion of the syngas produces synthetic paraffinic kerosene (SPK) as the primary product, plus naphtha. Other co-products include electricity sold to the grid and CO 2 sold for use in enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Previous studies have identified coprocessing of various coals and biomass with CO 2 capture as promising options for cost-competitive production of low net lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions synthetic fuels. The effort reported here goes beyond earlier studies in the level of detail in process design and cost estimation with the aim of improving the understanding of the economic prospects for lignite and woody biomass coprocessing systems. Key objectives in the design of the FOAK lignite/biomass-to-jet (LBJ) plant were to achieve net lifecycle GHG emissions for the SPK that are less than for conventional petroleum-derived jet fuel and to make process design and equipment selections such that the plant could be built and operated in the near term, e.g., before 2025. The process design was developed by researchers at Princeton University and the University of Queensland and validated by engineers at the WorleyParsons Group (WP). Commercial vendors provided design and cost estimates for several major plant components. Bare-erected capital costs and operating and maintenance costs were estimated by WP. The primary objective in building and operating the FOAK plant would be to demonstrate the technical viability of the LBJ concept as an essential first step toward launching commercial-scale plants in the longer term. With this in mind, the project team developed a set of principles to help guide the process design: the total plant cost should be less than 2 billion USD (to limit investment risk); the level of input biomass should be both proportionally significant to reflect biomass/lignite co-gasification and sufficient to achieve GHG emissions goals; process design decisions and vendor/equipment selections should prioritize the likelihood of technical success over minimizing the cost of jet fuel production. The resulting FOAK plant design capacity is 1,551 metric t/d (45.5% moisture) lignite and 556 t/d (43.3% moisture) biomass, for a total input of 295 MW HHV , of which 25% is biomass. The design output is 1,252 actual barrels per day of liquids, of which 80% is SPK (62.3 MW LHV ) and 20% is naphtha (13.9 MW LHV ). It exports 15 MW e of electricity after satisfying a 38 MW e onsite auxiliary load. Additional products are 1,326 t/d of pressurized pipeline-quality CO 2 and 49 t/day of sulfuric acid (93 wt% H 2 SO 4 ). With thinnings from sustainably-managed southern pine plantations as the biomass, and with captured CO 2 stored underground via EOR, the net lifecycle emissions for the SPK product are estimated to be about one-quarter of those for petroleum-derived jet fuel. The bare-erected cost (BEC) estimated by WP for this plant is 588 million USD (2015). The authors’ best estimate of total plant cost (TPC) is 1,230 million USD, arrived at by assuming engineering, procurement and construction management services (20% of BEC), process 5 contingencies (35% of BEC), and project contingencies (35% of the sum of all other costs, i.e., 35% of 1.55xBEC). Not surprisingly, an annual discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis determined that it would be impossible to generate a positive net present value (NPV) over a wide range in key input assumptions. An SPK production cost subsidy of nearly 400/bbl USD over a 20-year plant life would be required to achieve zero NPV under a baseline set of assumptions (including 3% real weighted average cost of capital and a levelized crude oil price of 80/bbl USD). Alternatively, a capital grant in excess of the TPC value would also achieve zero NPV. The poor financial results reflect the small scale of the plant, the design principle to prioritize technical success, the levels of contingencies appropriate for the relatively early stage of project development, and the first-of-a-kind nature of the plant. Technology innovations, learning via construction and operating experience, alternative plant configurations, and larger scale should improve economics of future plants. To help understand these prospects, a preliminary analysis of N th -of-a-kind (NOAK) plants was developed, but with the limitation that plants would use only equipment components that for the most part are already commercial today: consideration of advanced, not-yet-commercial technologies and of R&D-driven improvements in existing technologies were beyond the scope of this analysis. The analysis found that a variety of NOAK plant designs that coprocess lignite and woody biomass to make jet fuel are unlikely to be economically competitive without subsidy even in the presence of a high future carbon tax or equivalent greenhouse gas mitigation policy. This conclusion applies to process configurations and input biomass/lignite ratios that result in net GHG emissions as high as those for petroleum-derived jet fuel and as low as zero. In contrast, encouraging results were found for plants processing only biomass. The economics of these “BECCS” plants (biomass energy with CCS) improve dramatically with the strength of carbon mitigation policies because of their strongly negative net GHG emissions. These findings do not imply that coal/biomass coprocessing strategies for making synfuels with CCS are not economically promising – only that, in the case of lignite, much more than a 25% biomass coprocessing rate would be needed. However, our analysis shows that all such systems are unlikely to be economic in the absence of a strong carbon mitigation policy. Future R&D driven technological innovations could modify this conclusion. Among other R&D priorities, an emphasis on better understanding and reducing plant auxiliary loads is warranted.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗