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DOE OSTI2022

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Cosmology from cosmic shear and robustness to modeling uncertainty

Here, this work and its companion paper, Amon et al. [Phys. Rev. D 105, 023514 (2022)], present cosmic shear measurements and cosmological constraints from over 100 million source galaxies in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 data. We constrain the lensing amplitude parameter 𝑆 8 ≡𝜎 8 ⁢$\sqrt{Ω_{m}/0.3}$ at the 3% level in Λ⁢ CDM: 𝑆 8 =0.75⁢9$^{+0.025}_{−0.023}$ (68% CL). Our constraint is at the 2% level when using angular scale cuts that are optimized for the Λ⁢ CDM analysis: 𝑆 8 =0.77⁢2$^{+0.018}_{−0.017}$ (68% CL). With cosmic shear alone, we find no statistically significant constraint on the dark energy equation-of-state parameter at our present statistical power. We carry out our analysis blind, and compare our measurement with constraints from two other contemporary weak lensing experiments: the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS) and Hyper-Suprime Camera Subaru Strategic Program (HSC). We additionally quantify the agreement between our data and external constraints from the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). Our DES Y3 result under the assumption of Λ⁢ CDM is found to be in statistical agreement with Planck 2018, although favors a lower 𝑆 8 than the CMB-inferred value by 2.3⁢𝜎 (a 𝑝-value of 0.02). This paper explores the robustness of these cosmic shear results to modeling of intrinsic alignments, the matter power spectrum and baryonic physics. We additionally explore the statistical preference of our data for intrinsic alignment models of different complexity. The fiducial cosmic shear model is tested using synthetic data, and we report no biases greater than 0.3⁢𝜎 in the plane of 𝑆 8 ×Ω m caused by uncertainties in the theoretical models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A neural-network-enhanced parameter-varying framework for multi-objective model predictive control applied to buildings

Management of the electrical grid is becoming more complex due to the increased penetration of alternative energy generation technologies and a broadening diversity of electric loads. This complexity creates challenges in balancing demand and generation that can increase the potential for grid instabilities. One effective way to address this issue is to leverage previously unexploited demand flexibility through advanced control strategies. In this work, we propose an advanced control method, called adaptive neural parameter-varying model predictive control (ANPV-MPC), to control the temperature and energy consumption of a building via its Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning system. ANPV-MPC combines key ideas in parameter-varying control, adaptive control, and online learning strategies to bridge the gap between computationally efficient linear model predictive control and more accurate nonlinear model predictive control. The novelty in ANPV-MPC is the use of a physics-inspired Bayesian neural network to estimate the coefficients of the parameter-varying linear control model. The Bayesian neural network additionally provides uncertainty estimates, triggering online training to capture evolving building system conditions. We show that ANPV-MPC can approximate the building system dynamics with a 28.39% higher accuracy than traditional linear model predictive control, resulting in 36.23% better control performance without increasing complexity of the optimal control problem. ANPV-MPC also adapts in real time to previously unseen conditions using online learning, further improving its performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Instrument design for an inertial confinement fusion ion temperature imager

A mix of contaminant mass is a known, performance-limiting factor for laser-driven inertial confinement fusion (ICF). It has also recently been shown that the contaminant mass is not necessarily in thermal equilibrium with the deuterium–tritium plasma. Contaminant mass temperature is one of the dominant uncertainties in contaminant mass estimates. The MixIT diagnostic is a new and potentially transformative diagnostic, capable of spatially resolving ion temperature. The approach combines principles of neutron time-of-flight and neutron imaging diagnostics. The information from the MixIT diagnostic can be used to optimize ICF target and laser drive designs as well as provide key constraints on ICF radiation-hydrodynamic simulations that are critical to contaminant mass estimates. This work details the design and optimization of the major components of the MixIT diagnostic: the neutron aperture, the neutron detector (scintillator), and the recording system.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Geometric Scale-up Experiments on Fluidization of Geldart B Glass Beads

The objective of this work is to provide a valuable database from controlled experiments for validating computational models. Recently, coarse-grained techniques such as particle-in-cell (PIC) or coarse-grained discrete element modeling (DEM) have gained popularity due to their computational efficiency while modeling large-scale systems; however, the influence of model parameters and their sensitivities at different geometric scales and flow conditions remain to be analyzed. These datasets are critical for the multiphase flow research community to assess predictive capability of modeling techniques as well as elucidate the hydrodynamic behavior in these systems. This study performed fluidization experiments using three different test sections with internal diameters of 2.5, 4, and 6 in. The operating conditions, bed material, and range of flow velocities at the inlet were constant in all the units, which were not hydrodynamically scaled. Glass beads having a Sauter Mean Diameter of 332 μm were used. Superficial velocity was varied from 2.97 to 5.35 times the minimum fluidization velocity and the initial static bed height was 0.1524 m. The order in which the experiments were performed was randomized and replicates were included to provide uncertainty in measurements. Statistics of differential pressure and bed height from these tests were reported. Future plans include validating PIC methodology in the open-source software, MFiX (Multiphase Flow with Interphase Exchanges) using results from this study. This could further be extended to determine optimal model parameters using inverse techniques such as deterministic calibration or Bayesian inference.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Geometric Scale-up Experiments on Fluidization of Geldart B Glass Beads

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine-Learning Assisted Identification of Battery Life Models

Predictive battery life models are commonly utilized to extrapolate degradation trends observed during accelerated aging tests for simulation of degradation in real-world applications. Thus, fitting accelerated aging data as accurately as possible and with low uncertainty is crucial for making believable projections of battery lifetime, but it is challenging to identify algebraic expressions that accurately fit multivariate degradation trends. A review of models published in literature reveal some common expressions for fitting calendar aging data, which is only dependent on temperature and state-of-charge, but no consistency across many models for fitting cycle aging data, indicating the need for a statistically rigorous data driven approach for developing empirical models. This talk will describe a machine-learning assisted method for identification of predictive battery life models utilizing bilevel optimization and symbolic regression. Bilevel optimization with cross-validation is used to statistically determine cell- and stress-dependent model parameters, while symbolic regression identifies both linear and multiplicative candidate expressions to predict stress-dependent degradation rates by selecting low-order subsets of features from a generated feature library. Because model expressions are identified empirically, it is crucial to ensure resulting models behave according to physical expectations, so the stability of models for interpolation or extrapolation is interrogated qualitatively through simulation and quantitatively through cross-validation and uncertainty quantification via bootstrap resampling. This model identification approach substantially improves upon models identified purely using expert judgement in terms of both accuracy and uncertainty. Model simulation and validation is then conducted by deriving a state-equation form of the predictive model, enabling simulation of battery aging under dynamic stresses. This enables validation of the predictive battery model on lab-based tests with varying conditions or on drive-cycle or application-cycle testing protocols. Parameter uncertainty can be carried forward into model simulation, giving lifetime estimates and confidence windows for cell- or system-level lifetime. The financial impact of battery model uncertainty can be estimated by incorporating uncertainty into a technoeconomic model.

battery↗

DOE OSTI2026

Gearbox bearing crack growth prognostics and uncertainty quantification with physics-informed machine learning

This paper introduces the extreme theory of functional connections (X-TFC), a physics-informed machine learning algorithm, and tailors it to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of wind turbine gearbox bearings experiencing fatigue crack growth. Unlike purely data-driven methods, X-TFC embeds a physics model, based on Head's theory in this work, into its training objective. The core of X-TFC is a random-projection single-layer neural network trained via an extreme learning machine, which requires only limited damage progression data and solves for output weights with a least-squares optimization algorithm. A composite loss function balances the network's fit to observed degradation data against the residuals of the governing crack growth differential equation, ensuring the learned damage trajectory remains physically plausible. When applied to a vibration-based health-index (HI) dataset measured during the growth of a crack on the inner ring of a high-speed bearing in a wind turbine gearbox (Bechhoefer and Dubé, 2020), X-TFC achieves near-zero prediction bias. Even when trained on only the first 10 %–20 % of the damage progression data, with sufficient physics weighting its predictions remain monotonic and smooth, delivering high prognosability and trendability. To quantify the epistemic uncertainty, we employ a Monte Carlo ensemble of independently initialized X-TFC models trained on noise-perturbed data, which yields confidence intervals around each RUL estimate and captures both model-parameter and epistemic uncertainty. In addition to a vibration-based HI, we demonstrate that the proposed framework can be directly applied to a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data-based HI (Eftekhari Milani et al., 2026) measured during similar wind turbine gearbox bearing crack faults, preserving its accuracy and interpretability. This extension shows the versatility of our approach, which is applicable to bearings of multiple gearbox manufacturers, models, and ratings using only SCADA data. By integrating domain knowledge with machine learning, X-TFC offers a rapid, reliable tool for crack prognostics. Its adaptability to other bearing failure modes, such as pitch bearing ring cracks, positions X-TFC as a powerful enabler of data-driven, physics-informed asset management in the wind energy sector and beyond.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Improving operational flexibility of integrated energy system with uncertain renewable generations considering thermal inertia of buildings

Insufficient flexibility in system operation caused by traditional "heat-set" operating modes of combined heat and power (CHP) units in winter heating periods is a key issue that limits renewable energy consumption. In order to reduce the curtailment of renewable energy resources through improving the operational flexibility, a novel optimal scheduling model based on chance-constrained programming (CCP), aiming at minimizing the lowest generation cost, is proposed for a small-scale integrated energy system (IES) with CHP units, thermal power units, renewable generations and representative auxiliary equipments. In this model, due to the uncertainties of renewable generations including wind turbines and photovoltaic units, the probabilistic spinning reserves are supplied in the form of chance-constrained; from the perspective of user experience, a heating load model is built with consideration of heat comfort and inertia in buildings. To solve the model, a solution approach based on sequence operation theory (SOT) is developed, where the original CCP-based scheduling model is tackled into a solvable mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulation by converting a chance constraint into its deterministic equivalence class, and thereby is solved via the CPLEX solver. We report the simulation results on the modified IEEE 30-bus system demonstrate that the presented method manages to improve operational flexibility of the IES with uncertain renewable generations by comprehensively leveraging thermal inertia of buildings and different kinds of auxiliary equipments, which provides a fundamental way for promoting renewable energy consumption.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Implicit neural representations for experimental steering of advanced experiments

Scattering measurements using electrons, neutrons, or photons are essential for obtaining microscopic insights into materials. However, limited facility availability and high-dimensional scattering data necessitate more efficient experimental steering techniques. Here, we report a machine learning method that guides scattering data collection and facilitates real-time estimation of model parameters, given a reliable forward model to simulate experimental signals. We employ implicit neural representations as efficient surrogates that link model parameters with simulated spectroscopies. This enables a Bayesian optimal experimental design framework to estimate the probability distributions of parameters from high-dimensional scattering data. We demonstrate the proposed method using inelastic neutron scattering with simulated and real experimental data, highlighting the method’s ability to provide real-time parameter estimation with quantified uncertainties and to deliver informed experimental guidance that reduces experimental time while maximizing scientific output. This approach paves the way for accelerated discoveries in condensed matter through scattering measurements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electronic structure prediction of medium and high entropy alloys across composition space

We propose machine learning (ML) models to predict the electron density — the fundamental unknown of a material’s ground state — across the composition space of concentrated alloys. From this, other physical properties can be inferred, enabling accelerated exploration. A significant challenge is that the number of descriptors and sampled compositions required for accurate prediction grows rapidly with species. To address this, we employ Bayesian Active Learning (AL), which minimizes training data requirements by leveraging uncertainty quantification capabilities of Bayesian Neural Networks. Compared to the strategic tessellation of the composition space, Bayesian-AL reduces the number of training data points by a factor of 2.5 for ternary (SiGeSn) and 1.7 for quaternary (CrFeCoNi) systems. We also introduce easy-to-optimize, body-attached-frame descriptors, which respect physical symmetries while keeping descriptor-vector size nearly constant as alloy complexity increases. Our ML models demonstrate high accuracy and generalizability in predicting both electron density and energy across composition space.

materials science↗

DOE OSTI2023

Robust Parameter Design on Dual Stochastic Response Models With Constrained Bayesian Optimization

In engineering system design, minimizing the variations of the quality measurements while guaranteeing their overall quality up to certain levels, namely the robust parameter design (RPD), is crucial. Recent works have dealt with the design of a system whose response-control variables relationship is a deterministic function with a complex shape and function evaluation is expensive. In this work, we propose a Bayesian optimization method for the RPD of stochastic functions. Dual stochastic response models are carefully designed for stochastic functions. The heterogeneous variance of the sample mean is addressed by the predictive mean of the log variance surrogate model in a two-step approach. We establish an acquisition function that favors exploration across the feasible and optimality-improvable regions to effectively and efficiently solve the stochastic constrained optimization problem. Further, the performance of our proposed method is demonstrated by the extensive numerical and case studies. Note to Practitioners-Many manufacturing processes involve undesirable variations, which create variations in the final products. For example, many emerging manufacturing processes, such as nanomanufacturing, involve complex physical and chemical dynamics and transformation, creating variations in the manufacturing output. In such processes, it is crucial to design the manufacturing processes or products so that they have minimum variations in their quality. Meanwhile, it is also important to maintain the overall quality of the designed processes or products. Furthermore, acquiring data from many advanced manufacturing processes is often very costly, especially in the designing stage. In this work, we propose a data-driven method that automatically finds the best setting of manufacturing processes or products with the minimum variations of quality and a given constraint on the average quality satisfied. Our proposed method is used before conducting every experiment; It analyzes the historical data from previous experiments and provides a setting to be used in the next experiment. Our proposed method efficiently utilizes the historical data, and thus finds the best robust setting by conducting only a small number of experiments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

DOE-NE LWRS Integrated Program Plan - Physical Security Pathway

Domestic nuclear power is facing increased financial pressures from a variety of areas and there is pressure on these utilities to reduce their cost of operation. Currently, about 20%-30% of all on-site personnel are related to physical security. The LWRS Program recognized that R&D related to physical security could play a role in providing nuclear utilities technical and staffing efficiency options to meet their physical security commitments, but utilities often lack the technical basis or the ability to create the technical basis to realize or implement these efficiencies; towards this end, the LWRS Program created the Physical Security Pathway in September 2019. The pathway performs R&D to develop methods, tools, and technologies to optimize and modernize a nuclear power facility’s security posture. The pathway will: (1) conduct research on risk-informed techniques for physical security that account for a dynamic adversary; (2) apply advanced modeling and simulation tools to better inform physical-security scenarios and reduce uncertainties in force-on-force modeling; (3) assess benefits from proposed enhancements and novel mitigation strategies and explore changes to best practices, guides, or regulation to enable modernization; and (4) enhance and provide the technical basis for stakeholders to employ new security methods, tools, and technologies.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

FEM Modeling and Simulation of 2-D High Specific Heat Nb 3 Sn Wires

In the past few years, new high specific heat Nb 3 Sn wires have gained much focus at FNAL. Indeed, they have proved to be more stable against thermal perturbations with respect to standard wires. Nevertheless, a trade off exists between their thermal efficiency and production feasibility. In this report I describe the thermal and structural models that I have developed by exploiting ANSYS Mechanical APDL ® , which I got acquainted with at the beginning of my training. The aim has been to optimize the location of high specific heat elements in order to obtain an optimal thermal stability, while minimizing the risk of wire breakage during drawing. FEM results are compared with experimental ones made beforehand. Other minimum quench energy (MQE) thermal models have been developed for expected new experimental results. New data may improve the understanding of the embedded physical uncertainties in the model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2019

The Community Land Model Version 5: Description of New Features, Benchmarking, and Impact of Forcing Uncertainty

The Community Land Model (CLM) is the land component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and is used in several global and regional modeling systems. In this paper, we introduce model developments included in CLM version 5 (CLM5), which is the default land component for CESM2. We assess an ensemble of simulations, including prescribed and prognostic vegetation state, multiple forcing data sets, and CLM4, CLM4.5, and CLM5, against a range of metrics including from the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMBv2) package. CLM5 includes new and updated processes and parameterizations: (1) dynamic land units, (2) updated parameterizations and structure for hydrology and snow (spatially explicit soil depth, dry surface layer, revised groundwater scheme, revised canopy interception and canopy snow processes, updated fresh snow density, simple firn model, and Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport), (3) plant hydraulics and hydraulic redistribution, (4) revised nitrogen cycling (flexible leaf stoichiometry, leaf N optimization for photosynthesis, and carbon costs for plant nitrogen uptake), (5) global crop model with six crop types and time-evolving irrigated areas and fertilization rates, (6) updated urban building energy, (7) carbon isotopes, and (8) updated stomatal physiology. New optional features include demographically structured dynamic vegetation model (Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator), ozone damage to plants, and fire trace gas emissions coupling to the atmosphere. Conclusive establishment of improvement or degradation of individual variables or metrics is challenged by forcing uncertainty, parametric uncertainty, and model structural complexity, but the multivariate metrics presented here suggest a general broad improvement from CLM4 to CLM5.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data-Based Resilience Enhancement Strategies for Electric-Gas Systems Against Sequential Extreme Weather Events

Some extreme weather events, such as the hurricane, pass through an area sequentially and thus are called sequential extreme weather events (SEWEs). This paper proposes a data-based robust optimization (RO) model to enhance the resilience of the integrated electricity and gas system (IEGS) against SEWEs. Specifically, the SEWE strikes the IEGS sequentially. After each attack, the system state is adjusted immediately to minimize the maximized expected system cost caused by the SEWE. The attack-defense procedures are repeated alternatively during the SEWE. Preventive measures, hardening, are made in advance to reduce the impact of sequential attacks. The entire process is formulated as a multi-period RO model. Furthermore, it is proved that the most effective resilience enhancement strategies for this model are the same as those for a two-stage RO model, which can be solved by the nested column-and-constraint generation (C&CG) algorithm. In addition, the property of SEWEs, sequentially endangering limited regions of the IEGS, is incorporated to build a data-based uncertainty set and reduce its conservativeness. Simulation results on two IEGSs validate the effectiveness of the proposed model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tightest Mixed-Integer Programming Formulations for Quadratic SCUC Optimization

In this project, we developed new, tighter Mixed-Integer Programming (MIP) formulations for the combined Alternating Current (AC) Security-Constrained Unit Commitment (SCUC) and Security-Constrained Optimal Power Flow (SCOPF). The work addresses a critical challenge in power system operations: efficiently determining which generation units to commit and how to optimally dispatch them while maintaining network reliability constraints for both normal and contingency scenarios. Our efforts: 1. Advance the Understanding of SCUC/SCOPF Modeling: By introducing tighter MIP formulations and leveraging cutting-edge optimization tools (Julia/JuMP, PowerModels.jl), this project has pushed forward the state of the art in efficient power systems scheduling. 2. Enhance Technical and Economic Feasibility: The methods developed provide more accurate and potentially faster solutions to large-scale, realistic scheduling and dispatch problems in electric power systems, which can translate into improved reliability and potentially lower costs for grid operations. 3. Benefit to the Public: Greater efficiency in power system operations leads to cost savings for utilities and end-users. Improved reliability and integration of advanced modeling approaches can facilitate the adoption of clean energy resources and better accommodate uncertainties in renewable generation. Because this technology could impact bulk power markets and reliability, these innovations have far-reaching public benefits in terms of cost savings, reliability, and sustainability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Reconstructing porous media using generative flow networks

One area of intense scientific interest for the study of sandstones, carbonates, and shale at the pore scale is the use of limited image and petrophysical data to generate multiple realizations of a rock’s pore structure. Such images aid efforts to quantify uncertainty in petrophysical properties, including porosity–permeability transforms. We develop and evaluate a deep learning-based method to synthesize porous media volumes using a so-called generative flow model trained on x-ray microscope images of rock texture and pore structure. These models are optimized on a log-likelihood objective and they synthesize large and realistic three-dimensional images. Further, we demonstrate the rapid generation of sandstone image volumes that display realism as gauged by quantitative comparison of topological features using Minkowski functionals of porosity, specific surface area, and the Euler–Poincaré characteristic (i.e., pore connectivity). We also evaluate the single-phase permeability using Navier–Stokes and lattice Boltzmann methods and show that transport properties of the generated samples match measured trends.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Rossi-alpha Uncertainty Quantification by Analytic, Bootstrap, and Sample Methods to Inform Fitting Best Practices

The prompt neutron period (the negative reciprocal of the prompt neutron decay constant) can be estimated using the Rossi-alpha technique that is predicated on fitting Rossi alpha histograms and of interest in nuclear criticality safety and nonproliferation. The histograms are traditionally fit with a one-exponential model; however, recent work has proposed a two-exponential model to account for reflector induced phenomenon. Until recently, the uncertainty quantification for either model was inadequate (inaccurate and demanded large measurement times). Measurement uncertainty quantification by sample and analytic methods was developed and validated in Ref. The purpose of this transaction is to (i) validate a new bootstrap method by comparing bin-by-bin error bar estimates and (ii) demonstrate how to choose bin widths and reset times to optimize precision and accuracy.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗