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Economic Analysis of On-Route Fast Charging for Battery Electric Buses: Case Study in Utah
Battery electric buses (BEBs) are increasingly being embraced by transit agencies as an energy-efficient and emission-free alternative to bus fleets. However, because of the limitations of battery technology, BEBs suffer from limited driving range, great battery cost, and time-consuming charging processes. On-route fast charging technology is gaining popularity as a remedy, reducing battery cost, extending driving range, and reducing charging time. With on-route fast charging, BEBs are as capable as their diesel counterparts in relation to range and operating time. However, transit agencies may have the following concerns about on-route fast charging: 1) on-route fast charging stations require massive capital costs; 2) on-route fast charging may lead to high electricity power demand charges; and 3) charging during peak hours may increase electricity energy charges. This study conducts a quantitative economic analysis of on-route fast charging for BEBs, thereby providing some guidelines for transit agencies. An integrated optimization model is first proposed to determine battery size, charger type, and recharging schedule for a general BEB route. Based on the model, an economic analysis of on-route fast charging is then performed on 10 real-world bus routes and a simplified general bus route with different parameters. The results demonstrate that given the current prices of on-route fast charging stations and batteries, it is always beneficial to install on-route fast charging stations for BEBs. A sensitivity analysis is also conducted to show the impact of potential price reductions of batteries.
SARS-CoV2 Docking Dataset
Description: Small-molecule conformations and docking scores for 1.4 billion molecules docked against 6 protein targets from SARS-CoV2: MPro 5R84, MPro 6WQF, NSP15 6WLC, PLPro 7JIR, Spike 6M0J, and a hand-optimized model of the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase. Docking was carried out using the Autodock-GPU program performing 20 independent structure minimizations per dock - saving 3 results per molecule. Scores reported include the Autodock free energy estimate as well as RF3 and VS-DUD-E v2 machine-learned rescoring models. Protein structure files and maps in the format input to Autodock-GPU are included. Literature Ref: Supercomputer-Based Ensemble Docking Drug Discovery Pipeline with Application to Covid-19, J. Chem. Inf. Model. 2020, 60(12): 5832–5852.
FEDERATED LEARNING ON STOCHASTIC NEURAL NETWORKS
Federated learning is a machine learning paradigm that leverages edge computing on client devices to optimize models while maintaining user privacy by ensuring that local data remain on the device. However, since all data are collected by clients, federated learning is susceptible to latent noise in local datasets. Factors such as limited measurement capabilities or human errors may introduce inaccuracies in client data. To address this challenge, we propose the use of a stochastic neural network as the local model within the federated learning framework. Stochastic neural networks not only facilitate the estimation of the true underlying states of the data but also enable the quantification of latent noise. We refer to our federated learning approach, which incorporates stochastic neural networks as local models, as federated stochastic neural networks. In this work we will present numerical experiments demonstrating the performance and effectiveness of our method, particularly in handling nonindependent and identically distributed data.
North Slope Decision Support for Water Resource Planning and Management (Final Technical Report)
The objective of this project was to enhance the water resource decision-making process with respect to oil and gas exploration/production activities on Alaska’s North Slope. To this end, a web-based software tool was developed to allow stakeholders to assemble, evaluate, and communicate relevant information between and amongst themselves. The software, termed North Slope Decision Support System (NSDSS), is a visually-referenced database that provides a platform for running complex natural system, planning, and optimization models. The NSDSS design was based upon community input garnered during a series of stakeholder workshops, and the end product software is freely available to all stakeholders via the project website. The tool now resides on servers hosted by the UAF Water and Environmental Research Center, and will remain accessible and free-of-charge for all interested stakeholders. The development of the tool fostered new advances in the area of data evaluation and decision support technologies, and the finished product is envisioned to enhance water resource planning activities on Alaska’s North Slope.
PDRD (SR13046) Tritium Production Final Report
Utilizing the results of Texas A&M University (TAMU) senior design projects on tritium production in four different small modular reactors (SMR), the Savannah River National Laboratory’s (SRNL) developed an optimization model evaluating tritium production versus uranium utilization under a FY2013 plant directed research development (PDRD) project. The model is a tool that can evaluate varying scenarios and various reactor designs to maximize the production of tritium per unit of unobligated United States (US) origin uranium that is in limited supply.
Using learning curves on energy-efficient technologies to estimate future energy savings and emission reduction potentials in the U.S. iron and steel industry
Increasing concerns on non-sustainable energy use and climate change spur a growing research interest in energy efficiency potentials in various critical areas such as industrial production. This paper focuses on learning curve aspects of energy efficiency measures in the U.S iron and steel sector. A number of early-stage efficient technologies (i.e., emerging or demonstration technologies) are technically feasible and have the potential to make a significant contribution to energy saving and CO 2 emissions reduction, but fall short economically to be included. However, they may also have the cost effective potential for significant cost reduction and/or performance improvement in the future under learning effects such as ‘learning-by-doing’. The investigation is carried out using ISEEM, a technology oriented, linear optimization model. We investigated how steel demand is balanced with/without the availability learning curve, compared to a Reference scenario. The retrofit (or investment in some cases) costs of energy efficient technologies decline in the scenario where learning curve is applied. The analysis also addresses market penetration of energy efficient technologies, energy saving, and CO 2 emissions in the U.S. iron and steel sector with/without learning impact. Accordingly, the study helps those who use energy models better manage the price barriers preventing unrealistic diffusion of energy-efficiency technologies, better understand the market and learning system involved, predict future achievable learning rates more accurately, and project future savings via energy-efficiency technologies with presence of learning. We conclude from our analysis that, most of the existing energy efficiency technologies that are currently used in the U.S. iron and steel sector are cost effective. Penetration levels increases through the years, even though there is no price reduction. However, demonstration technologies are not economically feasible in the U.S. iron and steel sector with the current cost structure. In contrast, some of the demonstration technologies are adapted in the mid-term and their penetration levels increase as the prices go down with learning curve. We also observe large penetration of 225kg pulverized coal injection with the presence of learning.
Evaluating the Techno-Economic Feasibility of Forward Osmosis Process Utilizing Low Grade Heat: Applications in Power Plant Water, Wastewater, and Reclaimed Water Treatment
Recovering and using uncoverted heat produced during electric power generation holds potential to significantly improve the efficiency of the electric power industry. One potential use of this low-temperature waste heat is on-site water treatment using waste heat driven processes to comply with the 2015 Effluent Limitation Guidelines for the Steam Electric Generating Sector. Ammonia-carbon dioxide forward osmosis (NH 4 HCO 3 FO) is a two-step waste heat driven process that involves a membrane separation process in which an osmotic pressure gradient created by an NH 4 HCO 3 draw solution is used to pull water across the membrane and a distillation column to regenerate the NH 4 HCO 3 draw solution. In this work we estimate the quantity, quality, and spatio-temporal availability of waste heat produced at U.S. coal, nuclear, and natural gas plants. We combine these estimates of waste heat availability with a techno-economic optimization model of NH 4 HCO 3 FO in order to assess the potential of NH 4 HCO 3 FO to treat flue gas desulfurization (FGD) wastewater, gasification wastewater, and boiler feedwater. We find that in 2012, 18.9 billion GJ of waste heat was discharged from the U.S. coal, natural gas, and nuclear fleet, although only 900 million GJ of waste heat was discharged at temperatures suitable for NH 4 HCO 3 FO. A maximum of 1.9 billion m3/yr of water could be produced using this waste heat to drive a NH 4 HCO 3 FO. The costs of waste heat driven NH 4 HCO 3 FO for FGD and gasification wastewater treatment to zero liquid discharge (ZLD) and boiler feedwater treatment are 2.20-2.40/m 3 and 0.35-0.65/m 3 , respectively. With mechanical vapor compression and crystallization for ZLD wastewater treatment and reverse osmosis for boiler feedwater treatment as the cost benchmark technologies, waste heat driven NH 4 HCO 3 FO is cost competitive for ZLD wastewater treatment, but not boiler feedwater treatment.
Abstract for CRADA among the National Energy Technology Laboratory, National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, The Regents of the University of California, and Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association, Inc. (AGMT-0855)
The objective of this CRADA is to facilitate cooperation among Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association, Inc. and collaborators of the Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES), including the National Energy Technology Laboratory, Sandia National Laboratories, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. The goal is to develop steady-state and dynamic optimization models of power plants. Tri-State will provide data related to the design and operation of power plants, which will be used to validate the IDAES team’s models and tools. These models will provide insight into potential improvements which could improve heat rate, reduce operations and maintenance costs, and/or improve reliability of the existing fleet of coal plants in the United States.
Multitask Recommender Systems for Cancer Drug Response
The problem we are currently trying to address is that there are many types of cancer drugs and many types of cancers and there is not always experimental data for a specific cancer type and cancer drug interaction. While there is a large possible set of feasible drug and cancer combinations, testing each pair is not realistic due to the high monetary cost of cell-based assays. Thus, this leaves researchers with a difficult choice of what drugs they should test on specific cancer types. This issue is known as the cold-start problem. Our focus is on developing recommender systems capable of addressing the cold-start problem as it relates to interaction between cancer types and cancer drugs. One of the most effective ways to address the cold-start problem is through large data analysis, however due to the cost prohibitive nature of cancer research the largest available data set size is the Genomics of Drug Sensitivity in Cancer with 494,973 genomic associations. To achieve optimal model performance on the cold-start problem, it is advantageous to employ multitask algorithms that are capable of transferring information between cancer datasets. The aim of this report is to draw from adaptations and state of the art developments in both algorithms for recommender systems and multitask learning to model the interaction between cancer cell lines and cancer drugs. Cancer cell lines are defined by the US National Cancer Institute as "cancer cells that keep dividing and growing over time, under certain conditions in a laboratory". This paper will focus on evaluating the performance of Neural Collaborative Filtering and Gaussian Processes, as well as their multitask adaptations, on cancer datasets from CCLE, NCI60, GDSC and CTRP. These methods will be evaluated on model performance in regression prediction but also in interpretability.
A Closed-Loop Distribution System Restoration Tool for Natural Disaster Recovery. Final CRADA report
We propose to continue the development of the restoration algorithms and the tool’s user interface, both of which have been developed under the GMLC-0131 project. This project aims to develop a distribution restoration decision support tool that will assist utilities in performing distribution restoration after extreme weather events in an optimal and efficient manner. The tool will integrate the weather information/forecasts and system fragility assessment together with the field measurement data to improve the situational awareness and estimate the system damage status. Advanced optimization models will be leveraged to dispatch repair crews and associated resources. New resources (e.g., automatic switches and distributed generators (DGs)) enabled by distribution automation and smart grid development will be utilized to reconfigure distribution grids and pick up loads promptly to reduce the outage sizes and durations. The closed-loop feature of the tool will make the tool adaptive to the evolving weather events and varying restoration capabilities. In this CRADA, we will collaborate with S&C Electric Company (S&C) to refine ANL-1060 (07/17/2019) the restoration algorithms that can be potentially applicable for any utility systems and vendor products, including: 1) Customizable information from both utility users and vendor users; 2) User interface design.
Techno-Economic Analysis Using REopt for Community Solar on Multifamily Affordable Housing Properties [Slides]
Multifamily affordable housing (MFAH) providers can identify and prioritize properties in their portfolios for which community solar development is feasible by following portfolio screening steps in a process outlined by NREL. Once MFAH providers have identified the most feasible sites, they can conduct more detailed analyses for a select number of sites to assess how distributed energy resources such as solar plus storage can help them meet their goals. The step is completed using NREL's REopt (https://reopt.nrel.gov/tool), a free techno-economic optimization model that determines DER sizes and dispatch strategies that minimize the life cycle cost of energy at a site. This presentation describes how to perform this step using REopt to help MFAH providers answer questions such as: What size solar PV system will result in the most energy bill savings at this site? What size solar-plus-storage system would be needed to power critical loads through a utility grid outage? What is the financial impact of rate switching, net metering, and/or meter aggregation? What percentage of the site's load can be offset with renewable energy? What are the emissions benefits of this renewable generation?
Rosario Strait Tidal Energy plus Energy Storage — Preliminary Economic Assessment
The Orcas Power and Light Co-op (OPALCO) is a non-profit utility that provides energy services to approximately 11,700 customers across 20 islands in San Juan County, Washington. OPALCO is developing a diverse set of local renewable energy resources to reduce dependence on mainland Washington State for energy and to reduce the regional need for fossil-fueled power. OPALCO’s load doubles in winter but solar production is roughly 20% of levels reached in summer periods. Tidal energy is strong year-round, night and day, and is predictable, requiring much less storage to firm it. To assess the technical and economic feasibility of tidal power, working in combination with multiple other distributed energy resources (DERs), Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) employed an optimization model to evaluate several economic benefits associated with varying scales of tidal power of between 2.4 and 9.6 megawatts (MW) and other DERs. In addition to existing photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage system (BESS) resources located on Decatur Island, Argonne also evaluated the addition of a BESS on southern Orcas Island with power and energy capacities ranging from 1-4 MW and 2-4 hours in storage duration.
Modeling and Analysis of Climate Variation Effects on Fixed-Bed Direct Air Capture Systems
This poster was presented at the 2024 FECM/ NETL Carbon Management Research Project Review Meeting held August 5th-9th in Pittsburgh, PA. The poster discusses the modeling, optimization, and analysis of a solid sorbent based direct air capture process. Analysis of the performance of the system when exposed to varying ambient conditions is also presented.
A Perspective on Traditional and Data Driven Electrochemical Modeling and Analysis
To understand the behavior of electrochemical systems, we need to reduce the dimensionality of the measured current-voltage-time (I-V-t) data by fitting models, thus enabling us to analyze and compare the governing physics. Traditionally, the process for this is an 'expert first' approach: defining the model and its explicit assumptions based on inductive reasoning or empirical observation, fitting small portions of the I-V-t data where assumptions are most valid or carefully designing experiments to enforce key assumptions, and then interpreting the model parameters. However, modern data-driven methods enable a new paradigm: a 'data first' approach, where the latent behaviors governing the system's measured response are identified directly using machine-learning models that optimize both model structure and parameters from the I-V-t data, guaranteeing that the learned model explains as much of the observed system response as possible. After model identification, the model can then be interrogated by an expert to connect observed behaviors with underlying physics. This talk will review several different types of electrochemical analysis (electrochemical impedance, differential voltage-capacity, electrochemical kinetics) and compare the traditional and data-driven methods for analyzing the data.
Identifying Barriers to Solar and Storage Hybrids: Modeled vs. empirical wholesale market value and net-value for co-located solar + storage projects [Slides]
Large-scale (1MW+) co-located solar and battery storage projects are expanding rapidly in the United States, but their realized contribution to the bulk power system remains poorly understood because public project-level operating data are limited. The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory estimates the wholesale market value of 280 operational photovoltaic-plus-storage (PV+S) projects across the seven ISOs/RTOs and 19 additional balancing authorities, representing roughly 95% of the U.S. PV+S fleet in 2024. We model optimized hourly dispatch under energy, capacity, and ancillary-service market opportunities and compare the resulting value with standalone PV value, project-specific levelized cost estimates, and empirical operating or revenue data where available.
Research Methodology for Grinding Systems
A research methodology is proposed for grinding systems, for the example of gear grinding by copying on CNC machine tools. In this approach, the system is characterized in terms of input, state, and output. Methods of modeling, optimization, and control at the production and preproduction stages are described. Analysis is possible on the basis of probabilistic and frequency approaches.
Economic impact and risk analysis of integrating sustainable aviation fuels into refineries
The growth of the aviation industry coupled with its dependence on energy dense, liquid fuels has brought sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) research to the forefront of the biofuels community. Petroleum refineries will need to decide how to satisfy the projected increase in jet fuel demand with either capital investments to debottleneck current operations or by integrating bio-blendstocks. This work seeks to compare jet production strategies on a risk-adjusted, economic performance basis using Monte-Carlo simulation and refinery optimization models. Additionally, incentive structures aiming to de-risk initial SAF production from the refiner’s perspective are explored. Results show that market sensitive incentives can reduce the financial risks associated with producing SAFs and deliver marginal abatement costs ranging between 136-182 $/Ton-CO2e.