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At least 955 records · Page 53

Comparison of Artemis 2 and Artemis 5 Model Outcomes Using the Impact Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool

BACKGROUND The Artemis campaign is a Moon exploration program with a series of six planned missions, five of which will be crewed. These five crewed missions will contain a single mission segment (space flight), or multiple mission segments involving space flight (Orion), lunar landing (LTV) and/or space habitat (Gateway). Each crewed segment faces the risk of unique medical conditions, necessitating medical sets/kits tailored to those specificities. To support and enable a data-driven and evidence-based decision-making process through out a mission’s life cycle, a software tool called IMPACT was developed. Using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies, IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a novel tool built for analyzing the possibility of encountering complex medical risks during space flight, and for identifying the medical resources and capabilities needed to treat those potential at-risk medical conditions. This presentation will seek to compare IMPACT’s computational results upon potential complex space medical conditions (e.g., sprain/strain back or sleep disturbance) using IMPACT’s risk metrics and the associated optimized medical sets/kits between two Artemis missions: single segment Artemis 2 and multi-segmented Artemis 5. OVERVIEW By identifying potential medical conditions in space using input criteria such as crew quantity and composition, certain crew physical characteristics, mission duration and mission activities, IMPACT can produce analyses on the type of medical resources and capabilities needed to produce an optimized medical set/kit to address those medical conditions. IMPACT achieves this by performing hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of missions to build aggregate pictures of medical risk. IMPACT’s risk metrics include loss of crew life (LOCL) – a measure of crew mortality due to medical conditions in space, return to definitive care (RTDC) – the need to perform crew evacuation, and task time lost (TTL) – a measure of the inability to perform activities due to crew disability. These risk metrics are applied to every medical condition identified by IMPACT’s computation analyses for every segment of the mission. Medical sets/kits are optimized to address these medical conditions but must fit within the stated Artemis Design Reference Mission (DRM) request for mass and volume physical size constraints. ANTICIPATED ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION Using two Artemis missions, Artemis 2 and Artemis 5, IMPACT will provide the analyses for comparison of medical set/kit contents based upon mass and/or volume requirements and identify the at-risk medical conditions within both missions. This paper serves as an initial exploration of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) medical risk calculations between two crewed Artemis missions and is not intended to be deemed the official medical response for the Artemis campaign.

probabilistic risk assessment↗

Probabilistic sizing of laminates with uncertainties

A reliability based design methodology for laminate sizing and configuration for a special case of composite structures is described. The methodology combines probabilistic composite mechanics with probabilistic structural analysis. The uncertainties of constituent materials (fiber and matrix) to predict macroscopic behavior are simulated using probabilistic theory. Uncertainties in the degradation of composite material properties are included in this design methodology. A multi-factor interaction equation is used to evaluate load and environment dependent degradation of the composite material properties at the micromechanics level. The methodology is integrated into a computer code IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures). Versatility of this design approach is demonstrated by performing a multi-level probabilistic analysis to size the laminates for design structural reliability of random type structures. The results show that laminate configurations can be selected to improve the structural reliability from three failures in 1000, to no failures in one million. Results also show that the laminates with the highest reliability are the least sensitive to the loading conditions.

Shah, A. R.↗

Aeroservoelasticity

Accomplishments and current research projects along four main thrusts in aeroservoelasticity at the NASA Langley Research Center are described. One activity focuses on enhancing the modelling and the analysis procedures to accurately predict aeroservoelastic interactions. In the area of modelling, improvements to the minimum-state method of approximating unsteady aerodynamics are shown to provide precise, low-order models for design and simulation tasks. Recent extensions in aerodynamic correction factor methodology are also described. With respect to analysis procedures, the paper reviews novel enhancements to Matched Filter Theory and Random Process Theory for predicting the critical gust profile and the associated time-correlated gust loads for structural design considerations. In another activity, two research projects leading towards improved design capability are summarized. The first program involves the development of an integrated structure/control design capability; the second provides procedures for obtaining low-order, robust digital control laws for aeroelastic applications. Experimental validation of new theoretical developments is the third activity. As such, a short description of the Active Flexible Wing Project is presented, and recent wind-tunnel test accomplishments are summarized. Finally within the area of application, a study performed to assess the state-of-the-art of aeroelastic and aeroservoelastic analysis and design technology with respect to hot, hypersonic flight vehicles is reviewed.

Noll, Thomas E.↗

Non-Grey Radiation Modeling using Thermal Desktop/Sindaworks TFAWS06-1009

This paper provides an overview of the non-grey radiation modeling capabilities of Cullimore and Ring's Thermal Desktop(Registered TradeMark) Version 4.8 SindaWorks software. The non-grey radiation analysis theory implemented by Sindaworks and the methodology used by the software are outlined. Representative results from a parametric trade study of a radiation shield comprised of a series of v-grooved shaped deployable panels is used to illustrate the capabilities of the SindaWorks non-grey radiation thermal analysis software using emissivities with temperature and wavelength dependency modeled via a Hagen-Rubens relationship.

radiation modeling↗

The Systems Engineering Process for Human Support Technology Development

Systems engineering is designing and optimizing systems. This paper reviews the systems engineering process and indicates how it can be applied in the development of advanced human support systems. Systems engineering develops the performance requirements, subsystem specifications, and detailed designs needed to construct a desired system. Systems design is difficult, requiring both art and science and balancing human and technical considerations. The essential systems engineering activity is trading off and compromising between competing objectives such as performance and cost, schedule and risk. Systems engineering is not a complete independent process. It usually supports a system development project. This review emphasizes the NASA project management process as described in NASA Procedural Requirement (NPR) 7120.5B. The process is a top down phased approach that includes the most fundamental activities of systems engineering - requirements definition, systems analysis, and design. NPR 7120.5B also requires projects to perform the engineering analyses needed to ensure that the system will operate correctly with regard to reliability, safety, risk, cost, and human factors. We review the system development project process, the standard systems engineering design methodology, and some of the specialized systems analysis techniques. We will discuss how they could apply to advanced human support systems development. The purpose of advanced systems development is not directly to supply human space flight hardware, but rather to provide superior candidate systems that will be selected for implementation by future missions. The most direct application of systems engineering is in guiding the development of prototype and flight experiment hardware. However, anticipatory systems engineering of possible future flight systems would be useful in identifying the most promising development projects.

Jones, Harry↗

A Risk-Based Approach for Aerothermal/TPS Analysis and Testing

The current status of aerothermal and thermal protection system modeling for civilian entry missions is reviewed. For most such missions, the accuracy of our simulations is limited not by the tools and processes currently employed, but rather by reducible deficiencies in the underlying physical models. Improving the accuracy of and reducing the uncertainties in these models will enable a greater understanding of the system level impacts of a particular thermal protection system and of the system operation and risk over the operational life of the system. A strategic plan will be laid out by which key modeling deficiencies can be identified via mission-specific gap analysis. Once these gaps have been identified, the driving component uncertainties are determined via sensitivity analyses. A Monte-Carlo based methodology is presented for physics-based probabilistic uncertainty analysis of aerothermodynamics and thermal protection system material response modeling. These data are then used to advocate for and plan focused testing aimed at reducing key uncertainties. The results of these tests are used to validate or modify existing physical models. Concurrently, a testing methodology is outlined for thermal protection materials. The proposed approach is based on using the results of uncertainty/sensitivity analyses discussed above to tailor ground testing so as to best identify and quantify system performance and risk drivers. A key component of this testing is understanding the relationship between the test and flight environments. No existing ground test facility can simultaneously replicate all aspects of the flight environment, and therefore good models for traceability to flight are critical to ensure a low risk, high reliability thermal protection system design. Finally, the role of flight testing in the overall thermal protection system development strategy is discussed.

Wright, Michael J.↗

Pterodactyl: Effects of 3D Thermal Analysis on Thermal Protection System Design for a Flap Control System

NASA’s Pterodactyl project has investigated the use of a novel multi-flap control system to facilitate precision targeting of Deployable Entry Vehicles (DEVs) during atmospheric re-entry [1]. DEVs can be folded to fit within the limiting cross-sectional area of current launch systems. Once deployed, the vehicle expands and settles into a pre-determined blunt body shape. While DEVs provide a more efficient solution to increased payload sizes, the absence of a back shell does not allow for easy integration of reaction control systems, which have historically been used for guidance and control (G&C) of rigid aeroshells during entry. One DEV solution, called the Adaptable, Deployable Entry Placement Technology (ADEPT), employs mechanically deployed gores. This provided the Pterodactyl project with the opportunity to incorporate a rib-mounted, 8-flap control system for G&C. Each flap can deflect independently in and out of the hypersonic flow, requiring TPS for the flaps. Previous work within the Pterodactyl project utilized 1D thermal analysis to design the TPS. However, the Pterodactyl project was concerned that the base level tools for 1D thermal analysis were not accounting for the 3D effects of the large heating gradients along and across the flaps, the in-depth in-plane conductivity of the TPS and internal structure, and the effects of the small edge radii at the neck of the flaps. This paper discusses the methodology and results of a 3D thermal analysis of the flap control system. Additionally, the results from the 1D and 3D thermal analyses are compared. It is found that elements of the original design that resulted from the 1D analysis may be overly conservative, and implementation of a 3D thermal analysis indicated a reduction in TPS thickness is feasible. This result helps to reduce the mechanical integration complexity of the flap at the rib tip and realizes potential mass savings.

Sarah N D'Souza↗

Evaluating Effectiveness of Modeling Motion System Feedback in the Enhanced Hess Structural Model of the Human Operator

In order to use the Hess Structural Model to predict the need for certain cueing systems, George and Cardullo significantly expanded it by adding motion feedback to the model and incorporating models of the motion system dynamics, motion cueing algorithm and a vestibular system. This paper proposes a methodology to evaluate effectiveness of these innovations by performing a comparison analysis of the model performance with and without the expanded motion feedback. The proposed methodology is composed of two stages. The first stage involves fine-tuning parameters of the original Hess structural model in order to match the actual control behavior recorded during the experiments at NASA Visual Motion Simulator (VMS) facility. The parameter tuning procedure utilizes a new automated parameter identification technique, which was developed at the Man-Machine Systems Lab at SUNY Binghamton. In the second stage of the proposed methodology, an expanded motion feedback is added to the structural model. The resulting performance of the model is then compared to that of the original one. As proposed by Hess, metrics to evaluate the performance of the models include comparison against the crossover models standards imposed on the crossover frequency and phase margin of the overall man-machine system. Preliminary results indicate the advantage of having the model of the motion system and motion cueing incorporated into the model of the human operator. It is also demonstrated that the crossover frequency and the phase margin of the expanded model are well within the limits imposed by the crossover model.

Zaychik, Kirill↗

Remote Sensing, Uncertainty Quantification, and a Theory of Data Systems; Workshop Report

The purpose of the workshop was to invite statisticians, applied mathematicians, computer scientists, data system architects, experts in remote sensing technology, and Climate and Earth System scientists to review, discuss, and plan research on issues related to large-scale, efficient analysis of distributed data using spatial statistical methods. Our motivation in organizing this event was to catalyze interchange among experts on the fast-emerging problem of analysis of distributed data. As part of SAMSI's 2017-2018 Program on Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Climate and the Earth System, a Working Group on Remote Sensing was established to address statistical and mathematical research problems in the analysis of remote sensing data. The Working Group has five subgroups: 1) Spatial Retrieval Methodology (the so-called \Spatial-X" subgroup); 2) Spatial Analysis for Hyperspectral Data (the so-called \Spatial-Y" subgroup); 3) Emulators for Complex Forward Models; 4) Optimization for Remote Sensing Retrievals; and 5) Theory of Data Systems (ToDS). The ToDS subgroup spent the first half of this academic year formulating a framework in which to consider the joint problem of a) optimizing statistical methods for environments where data are distributed and too large to move to a central location, and b) the design of data system infrastructures within which to implement those statistical methods. To x ideas, the Workshop focused on spatial statistical methods. To date there are many new spatial statistical methods designed with massive data sets in mind, in the literature. However, very few have been implemented for remote sensing data, and none have been implemented in operational settings like those used by NASA and NOAA. A major impediment to their use in these cases is that the data are not only massive, but are stored in different physical locations. These data must be brought together in some way in order to estimate spatial covariance functions, but moving data to a central location for analysis is tedious at best and impossible at worst. Some remote data reduction is almost certainly necessary, but how much? What are the consequences for inference? The fundamental issue underlying these questions is how to navigate the trade-space between costs and uncertainty in the estimates or inferences that are ultimately produced.

Braverman, Amy↗

Adaptive computational methods for aerothermal heating analysis

The development of adaptive gridding techniques for finite-element analysis of fluid dynamics equations is described. The developmental work was done with the Euler equations with concentration on shock and inviscid flow field capturing. Ultimately this methodology is to be applied to a viscous analysis for the purpose of predicting accurate aerothermal loads on complex shapes subjected to high speed flow environments. The development of local error estimate strategies as a basis for refinement strategies is discussed, as well as the refinement strategies themselves. The application of the strategies to triangular elements and a finite-element flux-corrected-transport numerical scheme are presented. The implementation of these strategies in the GIM/PAGE code for 2-D and 3-D applications is documented and demonstrated.

Price, John M.↗

CORSS: Cylinder Optimization of Rings, Skin, and Stringers

Launch vehicle designs typically make extensive use of cylindrical skin stringer construction. Structural analysis methods are well developed for preliminary design of this type of construction. This report describes an automated, iterative method to obtain a minimum weight preliminary design. Structural optimization has been researched extensively, and various programs have been written for this purpose. Their complexity and ease of use depends on their generality, the failure modes considered, the methodology used, and the rigor of the analysis performed. This computer program employs closed-form solutions from a variety of well-known structural analysis references and joins them with a commercially available numerical optimizer called the 'Design Optimization Tool' (DOT). Any ring and stringer stiffened shell structure of isotropic materials that has beam type loading can be analyzed. Plasticity effects are not included. It performs a more limited analysis than programs such as PANDA, but it provides an easy and useful preliminary design tool for a large class of structures. This report briefly describes the optimization theory, outlines the development and use of the program, and describes the analysis techniques that are used. Examples of program input and output, as well as the listing of the analysis routines, are included.

Finckenor, J.↗

High Fidelity Failure Analysis for a Composite Fuselage Section

A high fidelity delamination failure analysis was developed by combining a local failure analysis with a global full-scale finite element structural analysis to address strength and delamination failure in a single package. The methodology was demonstrated through a local three-dimensional pull-off failure analysis and a geometrically nonlinear structural analysis of a five-foot composite helicopter fuselage section. Pull-off specimens were used to identify potential debonding failure of co-cured skin-stringer/frame fuselage structures. An investigation of the failed pull-off specimens was performed to determine the location of the failure initiation. Three-dimensional strain energy release rate analysis indicates that the delamination initiation and growth is controlled by Mode 1 opening mode. The bending moment at the delamination tip was identified as the crucial factor controlling the failure. The geometrically nonlinear structural analysis of a five-foot composite fuselage section was performed using a detailed finite element model. Loads were applied along the periphery of the subcomponent using displacement fields generated from solutions of a full-vehicle model.

Li, Jain↗

Identification and Prediction of Broadband Noise for a Small Quadcopter

The growing interest in the noise of small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) in operation has motivated this study to characterize and predict broadband rotor noise sources. This paper analyzes the performance and acoustic data collected from two sets of wind tunnel experiments for hover and forward flight operating conditions. The first set of data is a result of testing a representative vehicle configuration of the Straight Up Imaging (SUI) Endurance quadcopter, while the second set of data represents an isolated rotor from the same vehicle. Following the analysis of the empirical data, a broadband noise prediction methodology is employed to compare with the experiments. This methodology uses NASA’s ROTONET and BARC tools to predict blade loading and self-noise at conditions matching the wind tunnel experiments. This methodology is effective at predicting the broadband noise at certain conditions. Furthermore, some predictions are repeated with the inflow conditions calculated by the rotorcraft analysis tool CAMRAD II, which shows improved prediction results for cases with nonuniform inflow. This work confirms some of the unique challenges associated with testing small rotor configurations, explores the limitations of this prediction methodology, and suggests improvements that can be made for future studies.

Nicole A Pettingill↗

Use of Design of Experiments in Determining Neural Network Architectures for Loss of Control Detection

We describe empirical methods for selecting a neural network architecture to implement belief state inference on generic commercial transport aircraft. We highlight a case study on the planning, execution, and analysis of a set of experiments to determine the configurations of a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE). Our main contribution is the application of a structured method that can be used for machine learning in many aerospace applications. This method optimizes the structure and training parameters of a neural network for belief state inference, using Design of Experiments (DOE) statistical methodologies. The motivation for this specific DOE analysis was to identify the appropriate hyperparameters for measuring the CVAE reconstruction probability and latent space, such that the measurements can be used to infer qualitative state changes for the aircraft. We demonstrate that this process yields information about a trained neural network’s utility for this specific application, along with a quantifiable range of certainty. We execute 84 experiments using loss-of-control flight maneuver data from the NASA T-2 aircraft, demonstrating that this empirical process allows us to construct cheap and simple models with specific attributes amenable to belief state inference in aerospace applications.

Loss of Control↗

Use of Design of Experiments in Determining Neural Network Architectures for Loss of Control Detection

We describe empirical methods for selecting a neural network architecture to implement belief state inference on generic commercial transport aircraft. We highlight a case study on the planning, execution, and analysis of a set of experiments to determine the configurations of a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE). Our main contribution is the application of a structured method that can be used for machine learning in many aerospace applications. This method optimizes the structure and training parameters of a neural network for belief state inference, using Design of Experiments (DOE) statistical methodologies. The motivation for this specific DOE analysis was to identify the appropriate hyperparameters for measuring the CVAE reconstruction probability and latent space, such that the measurements can be used to infer qualitative state changes for the aircraft. We demonstrate that this process yields information about a trained neural network’s utility for this specific application, along with a quantifiable range of certainty. We execute 84 experiments using loss-of-control flight maneuver data from the NASA T 2 aircraft, demonstrating that this empirical process allows us to construct cheap and simple models with specific attributes amenable to belief state inference in aerospace applications.

Loss of Control↗

Use of Design of Experiments in Determining Neural Network Architectures for Loss of Control Detection

Abstract—We describe empirical methods for selecting a neural network architecture to implement belief state inference on generic commercial transport aircraft. We highlight a case study on the planning, execution, and analysis of a set of experiments to determine the configurations of a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE). Our main contribution is the application of a structured method that can be used for machine learning in many aerospace applications. This method optimizes the structure and training parameters of a neural network for belief state inference, using Design of Experiments (DOE) statistical methodologies. The motivation for this specific DOE analysis was to identify the appropriate hyperparameters for measuring the CVAE reconstruction probability and latent space, such that the measurements can be used to infer qualitative state changes for the aircraft. We demonstrate that this process yields information about a trained neural network’s utility for this specific application, along with a quantifiable range of certainty. We execute 84 experiments using loss-of-control flight maneuver data from the NASA T-2 aircraft, demonstrating that this empirical process allows us to construct cheap and simple models with specific attributes amenable to belief state inference in aerospace applications.

neural networks↗

Development of Fuzzy Logic and Soft Computing Methodologies

Our earlier research on computing with words (CW) has led to a new direction in fuzzy logic which points to a major enlargement of the role of natural languages in information processing, decision analysis and control. This direction is based on the methodology of computing with words and embodies a new theory which is referred to as the computational theory of perceptions (CTP). An important feature of this theory is that it can be added to any existing theory - especially to probability theory, decision analysis, and control - and enhance the ability of the theory to deal with real-world problems in which the decision-relevant information is a mixture of measurements and perceptions. The new direction is centered on an old concept - the concept of a perception - a concept which plays a central role in human cognition. The ability to reason with perceptions perceptions of time, distance, force, direction, shape, intent, likelihood, truth and other attributes of physical and mental objects - underlies the remarkable human capability to perform a wide variety of physical and mental tasks without any measurements and any computations. Everyday examples of such tasks are parking a car, driving in city traffic, cooking a meal, playing golf and summarizing a story. Perceptions are intrinsically imprecise. Imprecision of perceptions reflects the finite ability of sensory organs and ultimately, the brain, to resolve detail and store information. More concretely, perceptions are both fuzzy and granular, or, for short, f-granular. Perceptions are f-granular in the sense that: (a) the boundaries of perceived classes are not sharply defined; and (b) the elements of classes are grouped into granules, with a granule being a clump of elements drawn together by indistinguishability, similarity. proximity or functionality. F-granularity of perceptions may be viewed as a human way of achieving data compression. In large measure, scientific progress has been, and continues to be, driven by a quest to progress from perceptions to measurements. Pursuit of this aim has led to brilliant successes. But alongside the successes stand problems whose solutions are not in sight. Representative of such problems is the problem of automation of driving in city traffic. In this case, as in many others, what can be done with ease by humans - without any measurements and a computations - is an intractable task for machines.

Zadeh, L. A.↗

Systems cost/performance analysis (study 2.3). Volume 2: Systems cost/performance model

A methodology which was developed for balanced designing of spacecraft subsystems and interrelates cost, performance, safety, and schedule considerations was refined. The methodology consists of a two-step process: the first step is one of selecting all hardware designs which satisfy the given performance and safety requirements, the second step is one of estimating the cost and schedule required to design, build, and operate each spacecraft design. Using this methodology to develop a systems cost/performance model allows the user of such a model to establish specific designs and the related costs and schedule. The user is able to determine the sensitivity of design, costs, and schedules to changes in requirements. The resulting systems cost performance model is described and implemented as a digital computer program.

Campbell, B. H.↗