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At least 955 records · Page 53

A Collaborative Proposal: Simulating and Understanding Abrupt Climate-Ecosystem Changes During Holocene with NCAR-CCSM3

We have made significant progress in our proposed work in the last 4 years (3 years plus 1 year of no cost extension). In anticipation of the next phase of study, we have spent time on the abrupt changes since the last glacial maximum. First, we have performed further model-data comparison based on our baseline TRACE-21 simulation and made important progress towards the understanding of several major climate transitions. Second, we have made a significant effort in processing the model output of TRACE-21 and have put this output on a website for access by the community. Third, we have completed many additional sensitivity experiments. In addition, we have organized synthesis workshops to facilitate and promote transient model-data comparison for the international community. Finally, we have identified new areas of interest for Holocene climate changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrating Public Health Surveillance and Environmental Data to Model Presence of Histoplasma in the United States

In the United States, the true geographic distribution of the environmental fungus Histoplasma capsulatum remains poorly understood but appears to have changed since it was first characterized. Histoplasmosis is caused by inhalation of the fungus and can range in severity from asymptomatic to life-threatening. Due to limited public health surveillance and under detection of infections, it is challenging to directly use reported case data to characterize spatial risk. Using monthly and yearly county-level public health surveillance data and various environmental and socioeconomic characteristics, we use a spatio-temporal occupancy model to estimate latent, or unobserved, presence of H. capsulatum , accounting for imperfect detection of histoplasmosis cases. We estimate areas with higher probabilities of the presence of H. capsulatum in the East North Central states around the Great Lakes, reflecting a shift of the endemic region to the north from previous estimates. The presence of H. capsulatum was strongly associated with higher soil nitrogen levels. In this investigation, we were able to mitigate challenges related to reporting and illustrate a shift in the endemic region from historical estimates. This work aims to help inform future surveillance needs, clinical awareness, and testing decisions for histoplasmosis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Technical report series on global modeling and data assimilation. Volume 5: Documentation of the AIRES/GEOS dynamical core, version 2

A detailed description of the numerical formulation of Version 2 of the ARIES/GEOS 'dynamical core' is presented. This code is a nearly 'plug-compatible' dynamics for use in atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs). It is a finite difference model on a staggered latitude-longitude C-grid. It uses second-order differences for all terms except the advection of vorticity by the rotation part of the flow, which is done at fourth-order accuracy. This dynamical core is currently being used in the climate (ARIES) and data assimilation (GEOS) GCMs at Goddard.

Suarez, Max J.↗

Forecasting for ESCAPE: A Multi-Institution Hybrid Forecasting and Nowcasting Operation for Sea-Breeze Convection Supporting a Ground-Based and Airborne Field Campaign

The Experiment of Sea-Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation and Environment (ESCAPE) field project deployed two aircraft and ground-based assets in the vicinity of Houston, Texas, between 27 May and 2 July 2022, examining how meteorological conditions, dynamics, and aerosols control the initiation, early growth stage, and evolution of coastal convective clouds. To ensure that airborne- and ground-based assets were deployed appropriately, a forecasting and nowcasting team was formed. Daily forecasts guided real-time decision-making by assessing synoptic weather conditions, environmental aerosol, and a variety of atmospheric modeling data to assign a probability for meeting specific ESCAPE campaign objectives. During the research flights, a small team of forecasters provided “nowcasting” support by analyzing radar, satellite, and new model data in real time. The nowcasting team proved invaluable to the campaign operation, as sometimes changing environmental conditions affected, for example, the timing of convective initiation. In addition to the success of the forecasting and nowcasting teams, the ESCAPE campaign offered a unique “testbed” opportunity where in-person and virtual support both contributed to campaign objectives. The forecasting and nowcasting teams were each composed of new and experienced forecasters alike, where new forecasters were given invaluable experience that would otherwise be difficult to attain. Both teams received training on forecast models, map analysis, Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT), and thermodynamic sounding analysis before the beginning of the campaign. In this article, the ESCAPE forecasting and nowcasting teams reflect on these experiences, providing potentially useful advice for future field campaigns requiring forecasting and nowcasting support in a hybrid virtual/in-person framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Use of Laboratory Data to Model Interstellar Chemistry

Our laboratory research program is about the formation of molecules on dust grains analogues in conditions mimicking interstellar medium environments. Using surface science techniques, in the last ten years we have investigated the formation of molecular hydrogen and other molecules on different types of dust grain analogues. We analyzed the results to extract quantitative information on the processes of molecule formation on and ejection from dust grain analogues. The usefulness of these data lies in the fact that these results have been employed by theoreticians in models of the chemical evolution of ISM environments.

Vidali, Gianfranco↗

Mobility Data and Models Informing Smart Cities

This presentation explores the interactions of Emerging Technology, Changing Urban Environments, and Travel Behavior on Mobility and Energy Impacts. Key findings include: Identifying and quantifying impacts of emerging mobility behaviors associated with Mobility as a Service (MaaS) and other new mobility choices in urban areas; The results demonstrate new methods to acquire data on quickly evolving MaaS in order to monitor rapidly shifting urban mobility patterns; Under development is a first airport mode choice model for access/egress, curbs, and vehicles related to transportation network company (TNC) use versus traditional modes; Initial estimates on the potential of employer-provided mobility on energy impacts. Key findings: for mode replacement, this presentation offers first observability into the changes in number of transactions per mode, after ride-hailing/TNC/MaaS introduction at airports: Seattle (SEA-TAC) airport: for every 100 new TNC transactions for ground transportation, ~ 27% replaced transit, 35% replaced parking, 17% replaced car rentals, and 21% replaced taxis; Similarly, at Denver International (DEN), ride-hailing transactions replaced transit, parking, car rental and taxis at a rate of 34.7%, 39.0%, 16.6%, and 9.7%, respectively.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Mobility Data and Models Informing Smart Cities

This presentation explores the interactions of Emerging Technology, Changing Urban Environments, and Urban Travel Behavior on Mobility and Energy Impacts. Key findings include quantifying impacts of emerging mobility, access and infrastructure associated with new mobility choices and services in urban areas. The results demonstrate new data collection methods and capabilities to understand and identify key levers to improve energy productivity of future mobility systems and of quickly evolving MaaS and COVID-19 contexts to monitor rapidly shifting urban mobility patterns. Under development are mode choice models for new modes versus traditional modes. Initial estimates are developed on the potential of workforce mobility strategies in shaping future energy-efficient mobility system impacts. For mode replacement and workforce mobility, this presentation offers observability into the changes in number of transactions per mode, after ride-hailing/TNC/MaaS introduction and in origins of workforce to enable user need-driven reimagining of efficient mobility systems: Seattle (SEA-TAC) airport: for every 100 new TNC transactions for ground transportation, ~27% replaced transit, 35% replaced parking, 17% replaced car rentals, and 21% replaced taxis. Similarly, at Denver International (DEN), ride-hailing transactions replaced transit, parking, car rental and taxis at a rate of 34.7%, 39.0%, 16.6%, and 9.7%, respectively. A workforce mobility tool, analysis/visualization techniques, and capabilities to understand and identify key job commute needs, new choices in access to job opportunities, and affordability aspects as levers to improve energy productivity of future integrated urban mobility systems.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Data-Driven Modeling of Electron Recoil Nucleation in PICO C$_3$F$_8$ Bubble Chambers

The primary advantage of moderately superheated bubble chamber detectors is their simultaneous sensitivity to nuclear recoils from weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) dark matter and insensitivity to electron recoil backgrounds. A comprehensive analysis of PICO gamma calibration data demonstrates for the first time that electron recoils in C3F8 scale in accordance with a new nucleation mechanism, rather than one driven by a hot spike as previously supposed. Using this semiempirical model, bubble chamber nucleation thresholds may be tuned to be sensitive to lower energy nuclear recoils while maintaining excellent electron recoil rejection. The PICO-40L detector will exploit this model to achieve thermodynamic thresholds as low as 2.8 keV while being dominated by single-scatter events from coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering of solar neutrinos. In one year of operation, PICO-40L can improve existing leading limits from PICO on spin-dependent WIMP-proton coupling by nearly an order of magnitude for WIMP masses greater than 3 GeV c-2 and will have the ability to surpass all existing non-xenon bounds on spin-independent WIMP-nucleon coupling for WIMP masses from 3 to 40 GeV c-2.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Combining Remotely Sensed Evapotranspiration and an Agroecosystem Model to Estimate Center‐Pivot Irrigation Water Use at High Spatio‐Temporal Resolution

Abstract Estimating irrigation water use accurately is critical for sustainable irrigation and studying terrestrial water cycle in irrigated croplands. However, irrigation is not monitored in most places, and current estimations of irrigation water use has coarse spatial and/or temporal resolutions. This study aims to estimate irrigation water use at the daily and field scale through the proposed model‐data fusion framework, which is achieved by particle filtering with two configurations (concurrent, CON, and sequential, SEQ) by assimilating satellite‐based evapotranspiration (ET) observations into an advanced agroecosystem model, ecosys . Two types of experiments using synthetic and real ET observations were conducted to study the efficacy of the proposed framework for estimating irrigation water use at the irrigated fields in eastern and western Nebraska, United States. The experiments using synthetic ET observations indicated that, for two major sources of uncertainties of ET difference between observations and model simulations, which are bias and noise, noise had larger impacts on degrading the estimation performance of irrigation water use than bias. For the experiments using real ET observations, monthly and annual estimations of irrigation water use matched well with farmer irrigation records, with Pearson correlation coefficient ( r ) around 0.80 and 0.50, respectively. Although detecting daily irrigation records was very challenging, our method still gave a good performance with RMSE, BIAS, and r around 2.90, 0.03, and 0.4 mm/d, respectively. Our proposed model‐data fusion framework for estimating irrigation water use at high spatio‐temporal resolution could contribute to regional water management, sustainable irrigation, and better tracking terrestrial water cycle.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Wide-Scale Clinical Implementation of Knowledge-Based Planning: An Investigation of Workforce Efficiency, Need for Post-automation Refinement, and Data-Driven Model Maintenance

Our purpose was to investigate the effect of automated knowledge-based planning (KBP) on real-world clinical workflow efficiency, assess whether manual refinement of KBP plans improves plan quality across multiple disease sites, and develop a data-driven method to periodically improve KBP automated planning routines.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Automated System-wide Event Detection and Classification Using Machine Learning on Synchrophasor Data

As the number of phasor measurement units (PMUs) deployed in a power system increases, and their data volume streamed to the control canter intensifies, operators are facing challenges related to the analysis of such data, which need to be observed and responded to as the measurements are displayed in the Control Room. Humans are generally unable to process such large amount of data efficiently and rapidly. There is an apparent need for automated ways to analyze the data, extract actionable information about occurrence of specific events, and characterize the events quickly and cost effectively. This paper discusses the use of machine learning (ML) to facilitate such tasks by providing automated, highly computationally efficient, and cost-effective ways of extracting actionable information from synchrophasor big data in real-time. We developed Big Data Smart (BDSmart) ML-based prototype tool for the Control Room use that automatically analyses data properties from synchrophasor system measurements taken across the three grid Interconnections in the USA (Western, Eastern and ERCOT). The data collected from several hundreds of PMUs located across the Interconnections over a period of two years have been made available for our extensive study. As a result, we were able to identify a number of big data properties that influence how ML methodology is applied to select, develop, train and test the data models that can eventually be used for the tool implementation. The resulting set of candidate algorithms spans unsupervised, supervised, semi-supervised and transfer-learning approaches. Many ML techniques, such as decision trees, multinomial logistic regression, feed-forward neural networks, K-nearest neighbor, multiclass support vector machine, and single and multi-channel convolutional neural networks, are implemented, and their performance is examined. We offer the results from testing the data models. The novelty of our study is in the approaches for bad data detection and mitigation, selection of a simplified feature for event detection, and data label improvements. As a result, we came up with a list of recommendations for the utilities on how to improve the PMU recording practices to cater to the future ML applications aimed at automating the analysis of synchrophasor data.

Synchrophasors, Machine Learning, System-wide Even↗

Galileon gravity in light of ISW, CMB, BAO and H {sub 0} data

Cosmological models with Galileon gravity are an alternative to the standard ΛCDM paradigm with testable predictions at the level of its self-accelerating solutions for the expansion history, as well as large-scale structure formation. Here, we place constraints on the full parameter space of these models using data from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) (including lensing), baryonic acoustic oscillations (BAO) and the Integrated Sachs-Wolfe (ISW) effect. We pay special attention to the ISW effect for which we use the cross-spectra, C {sub ℓ}{sup Tg}, of CMB temperature maps and foreground galaxies from the WISE survey. The sign of C {sub ℓ}{sup Tg} is set by the time evolution of the lensing potential in the redshift range of the galaxy sample: it is positive if the potential decays (like in ΛCDM), negative if it deepens. We constrain three subsets of Galileon gravity separately known as the Cubic, Quartic and Quintic Galileons. The cubic Galileon model predicts a negative C {sub ℓ}{sup Tg} and exhibits a 7.8σ tension with the data, which effectively rules it out. For the quartic and quintic models the ISW data also rule out a significant portion of the parameter space but permit regions where the goodness-of-fit is comparable to ΛCDM. The data prefers a non zero sum of the neutrino masses (∑ m {sub ν} ≈ 0.5eV) with ∼ 5σ significance in these models. The best-fitting models have values of H {sub 0} consistent with local determinations, thereby avoiding the tension that exists in ΛCDM. We also identify and discuss a ∼ 2σ tension that Galileon gravity exhibits with recent BAO measurements. Our analysis shows overall that Galileon cosmologies cannot be ruled out by current data but future lensing, BAO and ISW data hold strong potential to do so.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation: Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Project Calibration and Validation for the L4_C Beta-Release Data Product - Volume 42

During the post-launch Cal/Val Phase of SMAP there are two objectives for each science product team: 1) calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithms, and 2) validate accuracies of the science data products as specified in the L1 science requirements according to the Cal/Val timeline. This report provides analysis and assessment of the SMAP Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) product specifically for the beta release. The beta-release version of the SMAP L4_C algorithms utilizes a terrestrial carbon flux model informed by SMAP soil moisture inputs along with optical remote sensing (e.g. MODIS) vegetation indices and other ancillary biophysical data to estimate global daily NEE and component carbon fluxes, particularly vegetation gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco). Other L4_C product elements include surface (<10 cm depth) soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and associated environmental constraints to these processes, including soil moisture and landscape FT controls on GPP and Reco (Kimball et al. 2012). The L4_C product encapsulates SMAP carbon cycle science objectives by: 1) providing a direct link between terrestrial carbon fluxes and underlying freeze/thaw and soil moisture constraints to these processes, 2) documenting primary connections between terrestrial water, energy and carbon cycles, and 3) improving understanding of terrestrial carbon sink activity in northern ecosystems.

Cal/Val↗

Final Technical Report

We have made significant progress in our proposed work on studying abrupt changes during the Holocene with NCAR-CCSM3 during the term of this project. In addition, in anticipation of the next phase of study, we have spent time on the abrupt changes since the last glacial maximum. First, we have performed further model-data comparison based on our baseline TraCE-21 simulation and made important progress towards the understanding of several major climate transitions. Second, we have made a significant effort in processing the model output of TraCE 21 and have put this output on the NCAR Earth System Grid in single variable format analogous to the CMIP5 protocols for easy access by the community [https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/project/trace.html]. Third, we have completed many additional sensitivity experiments. In addition, we have organized synthesis workshops to facilitate and promote transient model-data comparison for the international community. Finally, we have identified new areas of interest for Holocene climate changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Rapid Prototyping Of Layered Composite Parts

Numerically controlled cutting accelerates fabrication of layers. Proposed method derived from stereoscopic lithography. CATIA or CAEDS computer program used to generate three-dimensional mathematical model of prototype part. In model, geometry of part specified in layers, as in stereoscopic lithography. Model data for each layer fed to computer-numerically-controlled ultrasonic cutting machine. Sheet of prepreg (uncured composite material) of specified layer thickness placed in machine and cut, under control of model data, to specified shape of layer.

Wolff, Edwin D.↗

Data-driven Modeling for Grid Edge IBRs: A Digital Twin Perspective of User-Defined Models

Recent events in Odessa have brought attention to the challenges associated with the interaction between Inverter- Based Resources (IBRs) and the transmission and distribution system. The NERC event diagnosis report has highlighted sev- eral issues, emphasizing the need for continuous performance monitoring of these IBRs by system operators. Key areas of concern include the mismatch of control and protection perfor- mance of IBRs between the original equipment manufacturer (OEM)-provided models and field measurements. The inability to replicate the realistic response can result in incorrect reliability and resilience studies. In this paper, we developed an approach on how to emulate the behavior of an IBR using measurement data obtained for system operators to utilize in real-time and long- term planning. Two experiments are conducted in the phasor domain and electromagnetic transients (EMT) domain to emulate the behavior for grid forming and grid following inverters under various operating conditions and the effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated in terms of accuracy and ease of utilizing user-defined models (UDMs)

Mahapatra, Kaveri [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)]↗

Space shuttle maneuvering engine reusable thrust chamber program. Task 11: Stability analyses and acoustic model testing data dump

The combustion stability characteristics of engines applicable to the Space Shuttle Orbit Maneuvering System and the adequacy of acoustic cavities as a means of assuring stability in these engines were investigated. The study comprised full-scale stability rating tests, bench-scale acoustic model tests and analysis. Two series of stability rating tests were made. Acoustic model tests were made to determine the resonance characteristics and effects of acoustic cavities. Analytical studies were done to aid design of the cavity configurations to be tested and, also, to aid evaluation of the effectiveness of acoustic cavities from available test results.

Oberg, C. L.↗