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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

First-of-a-Kind Risk-Informed Digital Twin for Operational Decision Making

A digital twin (DT) is a digital model or a collection of models of a physical entity. DTs in the nuclear arena can be used from plant design through decommissioning. Decisions are typically a priori or made offline. Risk-informed decision making is identifying what can go wrong, its frequency, and the consequences of its failure. Ideally risk-informed decision making reflects the current state of the plant and provides a decision in real time. Traditionally, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) evaluate the failures of safety systems, the risk of core damage, and the offsite dose as the consequence. However, this DT evaluates the decisions on the control side rather than the protection side. It uses the same risk methods to probabilistically inform the decision-making process but in a different way. Rather than evaluating the risk of core damage, this DT evaluates the likelihood of avoiding a trip set point while maintaining plant safety. Performance-based assessments are identified via its probabilistic evaluation of operational alternatives based on system status. Because the purpose of the control system is to maintain system variables within prescribed operating ranges, upsets or challenges that can exceed a trip set point resulting in a plant transient and a challenge to plant mitigating systems based on actual plant conditions, are evaluated to safely maintain the plant within the operating ranges. The probabilistic portion of the model is autonomously and automatically adjusted, and the metric of interest (i.e. likelihood of avoiding a trip set point) is recalculated. The digital representation of the physical system (i.e. the DT) performs a deterministic performance–based assessment of the probabilistically identified alternatives identified to validate the probabilistic assessment. A decision-making algorithm selects the appropriate option based on the probabilistic and deterministic assessments and transmits a control signal to a component(s) to initiate a corrective action or informs an operator of its decision.

digital twin↗
NASA NTRS2008

Reliability and Confidence Interval Analysis of a CMC Turbine Stator Vane

High temperature ceramic matrix composites (CMC) are being explored as viable candidate materials for hot section gas turbine components. These advanced composites can potentially lead to reduced weight, enable higher operating temperatures requiring less cooling and thus leading to increased engine efficiencies. However, these materials are brittle and show degradation with time at high operating temperatures due to creep as well as cyclic mechanical and thermal loads. In addition, these materials are heterogeneous in their make-up and various factors affect their properties in a specific design environment. Most of these advanced composites involve two- and three-dimensional fiber architectures and require a complex multi-step high temperature processing. Since there are uncertainties associated with each of these in addition to the variability in the constituent material properties, the observed behavior of composite materials exhibits scatter. Traditional material failure analyses employing a deterministic approach, where failure is assumed to occur when some allowable stress level or equivalent stress is exceeded, are not adequate for brittle material component design. Such phenomenological failure theories are reasonably successful when applied to ductile materials such as metals. Analysis of failure in structural components is governed by the observed scatter in strength, stiffness and loading conditions. In such situations, statistical design approaches must be used. Accounting for these phenomena requires a change in philosophy on the design engineer s part that leads to a reduced focus on the use of safety factors in favor of reliability analyses. The reliability approach demands that the design engineer must tolerate a finite risk of unacceptable performance. This risk of unacceptable performance is identified as a component's probability of failure (or alternatively, component reliability). The primary concern of the engineer is minimizing this risk in an economical manner. The methods to accurately determine the service life of an engine component with associated variability have become increasingly difficult. This results, in part, from the complex missions which are now routinely considered during the design process. These missions include large variations of multi-axial stresses and temperatures experienced by critical engine parts. There is a need for a convenient design tool that can accommodate various loading conditions induced by engine operating environments, and material data with their associated uncertainties to estimate the minimum predicted life of a structural component. A probabilistic composite micromechanics technique in combination with woven composite micromechanics, structural analysis and Fast Probability Integration (FPI) techniques has been used to evaluate the maximum stress and its probabilistic distribution in a CMC turbine stator vane. Furthermore, input variables causing scatter are identified and ranked based upon their sensitivity magnitude. Since the measured data for the ceramic matrix composite properties is very limited, obtaining a probabilistic distribution with their corresponding parameters is difficult. In case of limited data, confidence bounds are essential to quantify the uncertainty associated with the distribution. Usually 90 and 95% confidence intervals are computed for material properties. Failure properties are then computed with the confidence bounds. Best estimates and the confidence bounds on the best estimate of the cumulative probability function for R-S (strength - stress) are plotted. The methodologies and the results from these analyses will be discussed in the presentation.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Sensitivity Analysis of the Bone Fracture Risk Model

Introduction: The probability of bone fracture during and after spaceflight is quantified to aid in mission planning, to determine required astronaut fitness standards and training requirements and to inform countermeasure research and design. Probability is quantified with a probabilistic modeling approach where distributions of model parameter values, instead of single deterministic values, capture the parameter variability within the astronaut population and fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. Because of this uncertainty, the model in its current state cannot discern an effect of countermeasures on fracture probability, for example between use and non-use of bisphosphonates or between spaceflight exercise performed with the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) or on devices prior to installation of ARED on the International Space Station. This is thought to be due to the inability to measure key contributors to bone strength, for example, geometry and volumetric distributions of bone mass, with areal bone mineral density (BMD) measurement techniques. To further the applicability of model, we performed a parameter sensitivity study aimed at identifying those parameter uncertainties that most effect the model forecasts in order to determine what areas of the model needed enhancements for reducing uncertainty. Methods: The bone fracture risk model (BFxRM), originally published in (Nelson et al) is a probabilistic model that can assess the risk of astronaut bone fracture. This is accomplished by utilizing biomechanical models to assess the applied loads; utilizing models of spaceflight BMD loss in at-risk skeletal locations; quantifying bone strength through a relationship between areal BMD and bone failure load; and relating fracture risk index (FRI), the ratio of applied load to bone strength, to fracture probability. There are many factors associated with these calculations including environmental factors, factors associated with the fall event, mass and anthropometric values of the astronaut, BMD characteristics, characteristics of the relationship between BMD and bone strength and bone fracture characteristics. The uncertainty in these factors is captured through the use of parameter distributions and the fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. To determine parameter sensitivity, a correlation coefficient is found between the sample set of each model parameter and the calculated fracture probabilities. Each parameters contribution to the variance is found by squaring the correlation coefficients, dividing by the sum of the squared correlation coefficients, and multiplying by 100. Results: Sensitivity analyses of BFxRM simulations of preflight, 0 days post-flight and 365 days post-flight falls onto the hip revealed a subset of the twelve factors within the model which cause the most variation in the fracture predictions. These factors include the spring constant used in the hip biomechanical model, the midpoint FRI parameter within the equation used to convert FRI to fracture probability and preflight BMD values. Future work: Plans are underway to update the BFxRM by incorporating bone strength information from finite element models (FEM) into the bone strength portion of the BFxRM. Also, FEM bone strength information along with fracture outcome data will be incorporated into the FRI to fracture probability.

mathematical models↗
DOE OSTI2025

Polynomial Chaos Surrogate Construction for Random Fields with Parametric Uncertainty

Engineering and applied science rely on computational experiments to rigorously study physical systems. The mathematical models used to probe these systems are highly complex, and sampling-intensive studies often require prohibitively many simulations for acceptable accuracy. Surrogate models provide a means of circumventing the high computational expense of sampling such complex models. In particular, polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) have been successfully used for uncertainty quantification studies of deterministic models where the dominant source of uncertainty is parametric. We discuss an extension to conventional PCE surrogate modeling to enable surrogate construction for stochastic computational models that have intrinsic noise in addition to parametric uncertainty. We develop a PCE surrogate on a joint space of intrinsic and parametric uncertainty, enabled by Rosenblatt transformations, which are evaluated via kernel density estimation of the associated conditional cumulative distributions. Furthermore, we extend the construction to random field data via the Karhunen–Loève expansion. We then take advantage of closed-form solutions for computing PCE Sobol indices to perform a global sensitivity analysis of the model which quantifies the intrinsic noise contribution to the overall model output variance. Additionally, the resulting joint PCE is generative in the sense that it allows generating random realizations at any input parameter setting that are statistically approximately equivalent to realizations from the underlying stochastic model. The method is demonstrated on a chemical catalysis example model and a synthetic example controlled by a parameter that enables a switch from unimodal to bimodal response distributions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermal Neutron Scattering Law (TNSL) Implementation and Testing in FUDGE

Thermal neutron scattering law processing capabilities have been recently implemented in the LLNL code FUDGE (For Updating Data and Generating Evaluations). FUDGE is now capable of producing processed TNSL data for use in Monte Carlo or deterministic transport. To test this new capability, LLNL scientists performed an extensive intercomparison between the Mercury, Ardra, COG and MCNP transport codes. This intercomparison helped probe differences between how TNSL data are handled by the transport codes and by two different processing codes (LLNL’s FUDGE and LANL’s NJOY). This report summarizes recent improvements in FUDGE TNSL capabilities as well as results from the code intercomparison.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2017

A stochastic flow-capturing model to optimize the location of fast-charging stations with uncertain electric vehicle flows

Here, we develop a model to optimize the location of public fast charging stations for electric vehicles (EVs). A difficulty in planning the placement of charging stations is uncertainty in where EV charging demands appear. For this reason, we use a stochastic flow-capturing location model (SFCLM). A sample-average approximation method and an averaged two-replication procedure are used to solve the problem and estimate the solution quality. We demonstrate the use of the SFCLM using a Central-Ohio based case study. We find that most of the stations built are concentrated around the urban core of the region. As the number of stations built increases, some appear on the outskirts of the region to provide an extended charging network. We find that the sets of optimal charging station locations as a function of the number of stations built are approximately nested. We demonstrate the benefits of the charging-station network in terms of how many EVs are able to complete their daily trips by charging midday—six public charging stations allow at least 60% of EVs that would otherwise not be able to complete their daily tours without the stations to do so. We finally compare the SFCLM to a deterministic model, in which EV flows are set equal to their expected values. We show that if a limited number of charging stations are to be built, the SFCLM outperforms the deterministic model. As the number of stations to be built increases, the SFCLM and deterministic model select very similar station locations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Testing of ENDF/B-VIII.0 in the GNDS format with LLNL transport codes - 25606

ENDF/B-VIII.0 was released in the Evaluated Nuclear Data Format and the Generalized Nuclear Data Structure format (GNDS), a new international standard for storing nuclear data developed under the auspices of the Nuclear Energy Agency Working Party on Evaluation Cooperation Subgroup 38. GNDS relies on modern coding practices, and offers a structured, flexible and physics-based standard for storing and exchanging nuclear data to address limitations in legacy nuclear data formats such as ENDF-6. GNDS supports the storage of evaluated nuclear data as well as processed data suitable for both deterministic (i.e., multi-group) and Monte Carlo transport codes. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has implemented a complete suite of codes to test GNDS data. Simulations for the ENDF/B-VIII.0 cross-section library in GNDS format are presented. Deterministic and Monte Carlo radiation transport simulations with the Ardra and Mercury codes respectively, are validated against reactivities in fast criticality safety benchmark assemblies. Finally, Mercury simulations of {sup 238}U(n,f), {sup 237}Np(n,f) and {sup 239}Pu(n,f) reaction rates in Godiva, Jezebel and Flattop are compared to MCNP results and measured data. (authors)

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2016

The packing problem of uncertain multicasts

Summary Multicast performs better than unicast in delivering the same content from a fixed single source to a set of destinations. Many efforts have been made to optimize such kind of deterministic multicast, such as minimizing the transmission cost of each multicast session. In practice, it is not necessary that the source of each multicast session has to be in a specific location, as long as certain constraints are satisfied. Accordingly, applications usually meet a novel multicast with uncertain sources, ie, uncertain multicast. That is, multiple nodes have the responsibility to act as the root node of a multicast session. Prior proposals have addressed an uncertain multicast by constructing the minimum cost forest. However, it is still unknown how to efficiently share the network resources, when a set of uncertain multicast occupies the network simultaneously. To tackle such a challenging issue, we present the packing problem of uncertain multicasts (MPU) to minimize the total transmission cost, under the constraint of link capacity. We prove that the MPU problem is NP‐hard. An intrinsic solution is constructing the minimum cost forest for each uncertain multicast individually. This method, however, is inefficient and may be infeasible because of the constraint of link capacity. Thus, we design 2 dedicated greedy methods, named priority‐based and adjusting congested link, to approximate the optimal solution. The comprehensive results indicate that both of our 2 methods can find a feasible solution for the MPU problem. Moreover, given a set of uncertain multicasts, the adjusting congested link method can generate a desired transmission structure for each uncertain multicast and achieve the least total cost when packing them.

Ren, Bangbang↗
DOE OSTI2019

A comprehensive modeling procedure for estimating statistical properties of forced ignition

In this work, a comprehensive modeling procedure for estimating the probability of ignition with application to high altitude relights of aircraft combustors is developed. In these configurations, an ignitor is used to introduce high-enthalpy discharge into a fuel-laden but stratified flow. Because of the inherent variabilities inflow conditions, kernel discharge process, and the chaotic turbulent flow, ignition cannot be described deterministically, but only as a probabilistic measure. The proposed modeling framework consists of three components. The turbulent flow is represented using the large eddy simulation (LES) framework. The ignition process is modeled using a manifold approach, where the initial kernel evolution is represented using a homogeneous reactor while the latter part of the evolution is represented as a competition between diffusion and chemical reactions using a flamelet-type mapping. A combined lookup table that can track the evolution of the kernel through these two distinct reaction stages is developed. The table lookup variables are solved within the LES framework. The resulting simulation tool is then embedded within an uncertainty quantification approach, where variations in the turbulent flow, as well as operating and kernel properties, are simulated using a Monte-Carlo-based sampling approach. Techniques to reduce computational cost are used to obtain a robust, numerically accurate, and physically representative model for engine relight. The method is validated using experimental data for ignition of methane/air mixtures. Due to the comprehensive nature of the modeling procedure, it is found that the simulation tool reproduces experimentally observed ignition probabilities over a wide range of operating conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantum Time-Space Tradeoffs for Matrix Problems

We consider the time and space required for quantum computers to solve a wide variety of problems involving matrices, many of which have only been analyzed classically in prior work. Our main results show that for a range of linear algebra problems—including matrix-vector product, matrix inversion, matrix multiplication and powering—existing classical time-space tradeoffs, several of which are tight for every space bound, also apply to quantum algorithms with at most a constant factor loss. For example, for almost all fixed matrices 𝐴, including the discrete Fourier transform matrix, we prove that quantum circuits with at most 𝑇 input queries and 𝑆 qubits of memory require 𝑇 = Ω⁢(𝑛 2 /𝑆) to compute matrix-vector product 𝐴⁢𝑥 for 𝑥 ∈{0,1 𝑛 . We similarly prove that matrix multiplication for 𝑛 ×𝑛 binary matrices requires 𝑇 = Ω⁢(𝑛 3 /$\sqrt{𝑆}$). Because many of our lower bounds are matched by deterministic algorithms with the same time and space complexity, our results show that quantum computers cannot provide any asymptotic advantage for these problems with any space bound. We obtain matching lower bounds for the stronger notion of quantum cumulative memory complexity—the sum of the space per layer of a circuit. We also consider Boolean (i.e., AND-OR) matrix multiplication and matrix-vector products, improving the previous quantum time-space tradeoff lower bounds for 𝑛 × 𝑛 Boolean matrix multiplication to 𝑇 = Ω⁢(𝑛 2.5 /𝑆 1/4 ) from 𝑇 = Ω⁢(𝑛 2.5 /𝑆 1/2 ). Our improved lower bound for Boolean matrix multiplication is based on a new coloring argument that extracts more from the strong direct product theorem that was the basis for prior work. To obtain our tight lower bounds for linear algebra problems, we require much stronger bounds than strong direct product theorems. We obtain these bounds by adding a new bucketing method to the quantum recording-query technique of Zhandry that lets us apply classical arguments to upper bound the success probability of quantum circuits.

lower bounds↗
DOE OSTI2019

Technical Maturity Assessment of Risk-Informed Safety Analysis Tools

Ensuring maximum safety while enhancing economic benefit is one of most important goal of In the of US Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. Optimization of the safety margins will provide best practice to achieve this goal which can also lead to cost reduction. Under the LWRS framework, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway has been focusing on the optimization of safety margin and minimization of uncertainties to ensure both safety and economics at the highest level. One of the important activities of the pathway is to deploy risk-informed analysis tools to related nuclear industry to support precise representation of safety margins and factors that contribute to cost and safety. The tools therefore need highest technical maturity so that industry can use immediately with strong credibility. The tools should have a capability to support risk-informed decision making for both probabilistic and deterministic elements of safety. The RISA Pathway, therefore, have been performing a comprehensive assessment of technical maturity and verification and validation (V&V) status of selected tools to improve adaptability to the industry. The technical maturity assessment includes three work scope: (a) define requirements based on risk-informed concept; (b) investigate and review development and V&V status for technical maturity assessment; and (c) identify technical gap and propose improvement to meet RISA toolkit requirements. The Requirement Traceability Matrix (RTM) concept was used to capture the requirements from user and developer of the project and/or software. The importance of each requirements was evaluated by Phenomena Identification and Ranking Technology (PIRT) which systematically gathers information and ranks the importance of the information. Finally, degree of the maturity was measured by Technology Readiness Level (TRL) for estimating the maturity of the technologies during the development and acquisition phase of certain technology. This paper summarizes development of assessment method and technical maturity evaluation of multi-purpose probabilistic risk analysis tool RAVEN.

, PIRT↗
DOE OSTI2019

Multigroup Neutron Cross Section Generation for the SCEPTRE Code

Multigroup neutron cross sections were generated for the deterministic radiation transport code SCEPTRE. ENDF/B-VII.1 nuclear data files were downloaded from Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), processed with the LANL cross-section preparation code NJOY-2012, and post-processed to produce a SCEPTRE-formatted cross section file. A simple radiation transport problem was used to compare results calculated with MCNP, a continuous-energy radiation transport code from LANL, to results calculated with SCEPTRE using the NJOY-2012-produced multigroup cross sections. This problem was used to debug the python scripts used to post-process the NJOY-2012 output and to assess the accuracy of the multigroup cross sections. These comparisons demonstrate that the multigroup cross sections generated in this work are accurate for most elements but yielded inaccurate results for several common transition metals. This discrepancy appears to result from poor treatment of the resolved resonance region of the continuous-energy cross sections. Further work is recommended to investigate alternative methods to treat these resonances with NJOY-2012.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Role of Margin in Link Design and Optimization

Link analysis is a system engineering process in the design, development, and operation of communication systems and networks. Link models that are mathematical abstractions representing the useful signal power and the undesirable noise and attenuation effects (including weather effects if the signal path transverses through the atmosphere) that are integrated into the link budget calculation that provides the estimates of signal power and noise power at the receiver. Then the link margin is applied which attempts to counteract the fluctuations of the signal and noise power to ensure reliable data delivery from transmitter to receiver. (Link margin is dictated by the link margin policy or requirements.) A simple link budgeting approach assumes link parameters to be deterministic values typically adopted a rule-of-thumb policy of 3 dB link margin. This policy works for most S- and X-band links due to their insensitivity to weather effects. But for higher frequency links like Ka-band, Ku-band, and optical communication links, it is unclear if a 3 dB link margin would guarantee link closure. Statistical link analysis that adopted the 2-sigma or 3-sigma link margin incorporates link uncertainties in the sigma calculation. (The Deep Space Network (DSN) link margin policies are 2-sigma for downlink and 3-sigma for uplink.) The link reliability can therefore be quantified statistically even for higher frequency links. However in the current statistical link analysis approach, link reliability is only expressed as the likelihood of exceeding the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) threshold that corresponds to a given bit-error-rate (BER) or frame-error-rate (FER) requirement. The method does not provide the true BER or FER estimate of the link with margin, or the required signalto-noise ratio (SNR) that would meet the BER or FER requirement in the statistical sense. In this paper, we perform in-depth analysis on the relationship between BER/FER requirement, operating SNR, and coding performance curve, in the case when the channel coherence time of link fluctuation is comparable or larger than the time duration of a codeword. We compute the "true" SNR design point that would meet the BER/FER requirement by taking into account the fluctuation of signal power and noise power at the receiver, and the shape of the coding performance curve. This analysis yields a number of valuable insights on the design choices of coding scheme and link margin for the reliable data delivery of a communication system - space and ground. We illustrate the aforementioned analysis using a number of standard NASA error-correcting codes.

Cheung, K.↗
DOE OSTI2018

A discrete classical space-time could require 6 extra-dimensions

We consider a discrete space–time in which conservation laws are computed in such a way that the density of information is kept bounded. We use a 2D billiard as a toy model to compute the uncertainty propagation in ball positions after every shock and the corresponding loss of phase information. Our main result is the computation of a critical time step above which billiard calculations are no longer deterministic, meaning that a multiverse of distinct billiard histories begins to appear, caused by the lack of information. Then, we highlight unexpected properties of this critical time step and the subsequent exponential evolution of the number of histories with time, to observe that after certain duration all billiard states could become possible final states, independent of initial conditions. We conclude that if our space–time is really a discrete one, one would need to introduce extra-dimensions in order to provide supplementary constraints that specify which history should be played.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of Explainable, Knowledge-Guided AI Models to Enhance the E3SM Land Model Development and Uncertainty Quantification

Focal Area(s): (2)Predictive modeling using AI techniques and AI-derived model components; use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models. (3) Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge- guided AI. Science Challenge: The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is a fully coupled, state-of-the-science Earth system model that uses code optimized for DOE's advanced computers to address the most critical scientific questions facing our nation and society (Golaz et al., 2019). The E3SM Land model (ELM) is designed to understand how the changes in terrestrial land surfaces will interact with other Earth system components and has been used to understand hydrologic cycles, biogeophysics, and ecosystem dynamics. In spite of great successes, the ELM has several known issues that restrain rapid improvements. For example, the ELM uses equilibrium models to simulate dynamic land-climate interactions and it requires long model spin-up time to identify suitable initial conditions for transient simulations. The ELM lacks built-in uncertainty mechanisms that can improve the robustness of model predictions. The ELM is a holistic, deterministic model system with a rigid design, and in many situations, it is hard to modify the ELM system to incorporate new theory/hypothesis and new data across scales to address emerging science problems (such as predicting the impacts of water cycle extremes). In addition, The ELM is technically optimized for traditional CPU-centric computers and it cannot fully utilize the current and incoming leadership computers for model simulations and uncertainty quantification (UQ). The success of artificial intelligence (AI) has inspired scientists to use AI models to discover intrinsic features from simulation data (Chattopadhyay et al., 2020) and observational data (Reichstein et al., 2019) to gain further process understanding of Earth science problems. However, autonomous AI model training through deep learning usually requires a huge amount of annotated data. To overcome the limitations from the data and computing resources, knowledge-guided AI models are necessary where human-knowledge is ingested in model construction (Banino et al., 2018) and training process (Silver et al., 2016) for efficient learning. Herein, we present a new way that leverages the process understanding from the ELM to guide AI model development for the ELM enhancement and UQ. We hope this study can inspire further Earth and environmental system model developments and transformations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Weibull and Bootstrap-Based Data-Analytics Framework for Fatigue Life Prognosis of the Pressurized Water Nuclear Reactor Component Under Harsh Reactor Coolant Environment

In general, the fatigue life of a safety critical pressure component is estimated using best-fit fatigue life curves (S-N curves). These curves are estimated based on underlying in-air condition fatigue test data. The best-fitting approach requires a large safety factor to accommodate the uncertainty associated with large scatter in fatigue test data. In addition to this safety factor, reactor component fatigue life prognostics requires an additional correction factor that in general is also estimated deterministically. This additional factor known as the environmental correction factor F en is to cater the effect of the harsh coolant environment that severely reduces the life of these components. The deterministic F en factor may also lead to further conservative estimation of fatigue life leading to unnecessary early retirement of costly reactor components. To address the above-mentioned issues, we propose a data-analytics framework which uses Weibull and Bootstrap probabilistic modeling techniques for explicitly quantifying the uncertainty/scatter associated with fatigue life rather than estimating the lives based on a best-fit based deterministic approach. We assume the proposed probabilistic approach would provide the first hand information for assessing the maximum and minimum effects of pressurized water reactor water on the reactor component. In the discussed approach, in addition to the probabilistic fatigue curves, we suggest using a probabilistic environment correction factor F en . Here, we assume the probabilistic fatigue curve and F en would capture the S-N data scatter associated with the bulk effect of material grades, surface finish, strain rate, etc. on the material/component fatigue life.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Ex situ metrology and data analysis for optimization of beamline performance of aspherical pre-shaped x-ray mirrors at the advanced light source

Super high quality aspherical x-ray mirrors with a residual slope error of ~100 nrad (root-mean-square) and a height error of ~1-2 nm (peak-to-valley), and even lower, are now available from a number of the most advanced vendors utilizing deterministic polishing techniques. The mirror specification for the fabrication is based on the simulations of the desired performance of the mirror in the beamline optical system and is normally given with the acceptable level of deviation of the mirror figure and finish from the desired ideal shape. For example, in the case of aspherical x-ray mirrors designed for the Advanced Light Source (ALS) QERLIN beamline, the ideal shape is defined with the beamline application (conjugate) parameters and their tolerances. Here, we first introduce an original procedure and dedicated software developed at the ALS X-Ray Optics Laboratory (XROL) for optimization of beamline performance of pre-shaped hyperbolic and elliptical mirrors. The optimization is based on results of ex situ surface slope metrology and consists in minimization of the mirror shape error by determining the conjugate parameters of the best-fit ideal shape within the specified tolerances. We describe novel optical metrology instrumentation, measuring techniques, and analytical methods used at the XROL for acquisition of surface slope data and optimization of the optic’s beamline performance. The high efficacy of the developed experimental methods and data analysis procedures is reflected in results of measurements with and performance optimization of hyperbolic and elliptical cylinder mirrors designed and fabricated for the ALS QERLIN beamline.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS2012

Identification of Robust Terminal-Area Routes in Convective Weather

Convective weather is responsible for large delays and widespread disruptions in the U.S. National Airspace System, especially during summer. Traffic flow management algorithms require reliable forecasts of route blockage to schedule and route traffic. This paper demonstrates how raw convective weather forecasts, which provide deterministic predictions of the vertically integrated liquid (the precipitation content in a column of airspace) can be translated into probabilistic forecasts of whether or not a terminal area route will be blocked. Given a flight route through the terminal area, we apply techniques from machine learning to determine the likelihood that the route will be open in actual weather. The likelihood is then used to optimize terminalarea operations by dynamically moving arrival and departure routes to maximize the expected capacity of the terminal area. Experiments using real weather scenarios on stormy days show that our algorithms recommend that a terminal-area route be modified 30% of the time, opening up 13% more available routes that were forecast to be blocked during these scenarios. The error rate is low, with only 5% of cases corresponding to a modified route being blocked in reality, whereas the original route is in fact open. In addition, for routes predicted to be open with probability 0.95 or greater by our method, 96% of these routes (on average over time horizon) are indeed open in the weather that materializes

Pfeil, Diana Michalek↗