DOE OSTI2016
In criticality calculations, the effective multiplication factor (k{sub eff}) is an important parameter for reactor analysis. It can be interpreted as the ratio of the neutron production rate to the loss rate in a reactor core. In Monte Carlo (MC) criticality calculations, k{sub eff} is obtained for each active cycle i as: k-i = P{sub i}/L{sub i} for I = 1 to I where P{sub i} and L{sub i} are the production rate and the loss rate at cycle i, respectively, and they are normalized by the nominal source size for cycle. Since all neutron particles in a cycle will be absorbed or leaks out at the end, the loss rate, L{sub i}, can be set as the source rate, which is the unity. Thus, in MCNP5, k{sub i} is simply calculated with P{sub i} by using three conventional estimators; collision, absorption, and track-length estimators. In domain decomposed MC criticality calculations based on the fission and surface source (FSS) iteration method, k{sub i} is calculated by a ratio of P{sub i} and L{sub i}, where both P{sub i} and L{sub i} are random variables, sampled by using the same particle histories. When the numerator and the denominator are correlated, the variance of the ratio can be smaller than that of the numerator. Then, the final estimate of k{sub eff} is provided as the sample mean of k{sub i}, which will be referred as 'simple' ratio estimator in this paper. In Ref., it is shown that this ratio estimator converges faster and fluctuates less than the conventional estimator. A similar ratio estimator is also used in Serpent 2, as an implicit estimate of k{sub eff}. However, this type of 'simple' ratio estimator is biased, which means that the expectation of the ratio is different from the ratio of the expectation of the numerator and that of the denominator. In this paper, an unbiased ratio estimator which was originally derived in the cytometry analysis is introduced to estimate k{sub eff} and is tested on a continuous-energy UO{sub 2} pin-cell problem. In this test problem, it is shown that the variance of the unbiased ratio estimator is smaller than those of the conventional estimators provided by MCNP5, while the simple ratio estimator can be significantly biased when the number of histories per cycle is too small. (authors)
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗