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DOE OSTI2018

Short-Term Precipitation Forecast Based on the PERSIANN System and LSTM Recurrent Neural Networks

Short-term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting is important for flood forecasting, early flood warning, and natural hazard management. This study proposes a precipitation forecast model by extrapolating Cloud-Top Brightness Temperature (CTBT) using advanced Deep Neural Networks, and applying the forecasted CTBT into an effective rainfall retrieval algorithm to obtain the Short-term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (0–6 hr). To achieve such tasks, we propose a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), respectively. The precipitation forecasts obtained from our proposed framework, (i.e., LSTM combined with PERSIANN) are compared with a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Persistency method, and Farneback optical flow each combined with PERSIANN algorithm and the numerical model results from the first version of Rapid Refresh (RAPv1.0) over three regions in the United States, including the states of Oregon, Oklahoma, and Florida. We report our experiments indicate better statistics, such as correlation coefficient and root-mean-square error, for the CTBT forecasts from the proposed LSTM compared to the RNN, Persistency, and the Farneback method. The precipitation forecasts from the proposed LSTM and PERSIANN framework has demonstrated better statistics compared to the RAPv1.0 numerical forecasts and PERSIANN estimations from RNN, Persistency, and Farneback projections in terms of Probability of Detection, False Alarm Ratio, Critical Success Index, correlation coefficient, and root-mean-square error, especially in predicting the convective rainfalls. The proposed method shows superior capabilities in short-term forecasting over compared methods, and has the potential to be implemented globally as an alternative short-term forecast product.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2018

Theoretical quantification of shock-timing sensitivities for direct-drive inertial confinement fusion implosions on OMEGA

Using temporally shaped laser pulses, multiple shocks can be launched in direct-drive inertial confinement fusion implosion experiments to set the shell on a desired isentrope or adiabat. The velocity of the first shock and the times at which subsequent shocks catch up to it are measured through the VISAR diagnostic on OMEGA. Simulations reproduce these velocity and shock-merger time measurements when using laser pulses designed for setting mid-adiabat (α ~ 3) implosions, but agreement degrades for lower-adiabat (α ~ 1) designs. Several possibilities for this difference are studied: errors in placing the target at the center of irradiation (target offset), variations in energy between the different incident beams (power imbalance), and errors in modeling the laser energy coupled into the capsule. Simulation results indicate that shock timing is most sensitive to details of the density and temperature profiles in the coronal plasma, which influences the laser energy coupled into the target, and only marginally sensitive to target offset and beam power imbalance. A new technique under development to infer coronal profiles using x-ray self-emission imaging can be applied to the pulse shapes used in shock-timing experiments. In conclusion, this will help identify improved physics models to implement in codes and consequently enhance shock-timing predictive capability for low-adiabat pulses.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling MTS pyrolysis and SiC deposition kinetics using principal component analysis and neural networks

Accurate chemical kinetics modeling is crucial for improving the efficiency of chemical processing and synthesis of ceramic matrix composites. Detailed kinetic models are computationally expensive due to the large number of transported chemical species, while the simplified physics-based models, such as single-step global mechanisms, are efficient but often overlook key chemical intermediates and pathways. Recent deep learning approaches promise accurate and cost-effective models. Yet, they require additional closures for the transported nonlinear latent variables, complicating integration with existing solvers. In this work, we develop a hybrid linear—nonlinear reduced model for silicon carbide deposition from methyltrichlorosilane precursor by combining principal component analysis (PCA) and autoencoder (AE) neural network (NN) approaches. PCA is used to identify a smaller set of linear transport variables, enabling direct reuse of conventional transport solvers. NNs then reconstruct the full chemical state from these reduced variables. We demonstrate the method on a chemical vapor deposition reactor—comprising a gas-phase pyrolysis plug flow reactor and a heterogeneous surface reactor—over a wide range of temperatures, pressures, and residence times. Our PCA–AE model achieves high accuracy with only five transported scalars, achieving an eightfold cost reduction compared to detailed mechanisms, in both a priori (using data from the test set only) and a posteriori (coupled with a differential equation solver). In conclusion, notable errors arise primarily near training domain boundaries and for long residence times, indicating the need for domain shift indicators and better long-horizon predictions in future reduced chemistry model development.

autoencoder neural networks↗

DOE OSTI2025

Marine and continental stratocumulus cloud microphysical properties obtained from routine ARM Cimel sunphotometer observations

This study investigates marine and continental stratocumulus (Sc) cloud properties obtained from an automated implementation of a multispectral photometer retrieval. Photometer methods simultaneously retrieve cloud optical depth (τ) and cloud droplet effective radius (r e ), with estimates for liquid water path (LWP) calculated on the availability of those quantities. These applied methods evaluate retrieved cloud properties for Sc identified during a recent 6 year period over the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program sites in Oklahoma, USA (SGP) and in the Azores, Portugal (ENA). Modest agreement in key quantity retrievals is found between the routine photometer products and multisensor collocated profiling references. Cumulative breakdowns contingent on cloud thickness indicate increases in all retrieved quantities in thicker clouds, with larger discrepancies in the relative performance between the retrievals collected in the presence of drizzle. Under continental cloud conditions, the clouds of a similar thickness and r e to those sampled under marine conditions report a factor of 1.5 larger τ and LWP. An r 2 ≅0.65 is found between photometer τ retrievals and shadowband radiometer measurements, with photometer retrievals reporting a high (relative) bias. The τ intercomparisons indicate that variability between retrievals is a factor of three larger than errors reported from individual retrieval input perturbation tests. Photometer r e retrievals suggest a low r 2 (< 0.1) having a standard deviation ≅ 3 µm when compared to ARM baseline multi-sensor radar/radiometer references (accounting for offsets in the cloud droplet number concentration assumptions of the latter). However, photometer LWP calculations remain relatively unbiased in non-drizzling conditions, with errors O (50 g m −2 ) and r 2 ≅0.5 to collocated radiometer and interferometer references. Additional sensitivity tests for island influences on marine Sc properties suggest that while island-influenced winds may promote larger cloud LWP or thickness, the influence could be within retrieval method uncertainty and/or collocated instrument variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1972

Calculation of photoionization cross section near auto-ionizing lines and magnesium photoionization cross section near threshold

The research performed is briefly reviewed. A simple method was developed for the calculation of continuum states of atoms when autoionization is present. The method was employed to give the first theoretical cross section for beryllium and magnesium; the results indicate that the values used previously at threshold were sometimes seriously in error. These threshold values have potential applications in astrophysical abundance estimates.

Moore, E. N.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Interior radiances in optically deep absorbing media. I - Exact solutions for one-dimensional model.

An exact analytic solution to the one-dimensional scattering problem with arbitrary single scattering albedo and arbitrary surface albedo is presented. Expressions are given for the emergent flux from a homogeneous layer, the internal flux within the layer, and the radiative heating. A comparison of these results with the values calculated from the matrix operator theory indicates an exceedingly high accuracy. A detailed study is made of the error in the matrix operator results and its dependence on the accuracy of the starting value.

Kattawar, G. W.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Microwave landing system requirements for STOL operations

The operational/functional requirements for the new Microwave Landing System (MLS) are examined for STOL operations. The study utilizes a nonlinear six-degree-of-freedom simulation of a De Havilland Buffalo C-8A aircraft and automatic flight control system to assess the MLS/STOL accuracy, coverage, and data rate requirements for the azimuth, DME, primary elevation, and flare elevation functions. The aircraft performance is statistically determined for representative curved flight paths through touchdown. A range of MLS errors and coverages, environmental disturbances, and navigation filtering are investigated. The study indicates that STOL applications do not place any unique requirements on the MLS.

Burrous, C. N.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Internal Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) study program. Volume 1: Technology discussion

The results of a simulation study to predict the IUE imaging chain performance are presented, including simulation photographs and transparencies of ultraviolet echelle spectra. Errors in wavelength determination and radiometric measurements due to system degradation are indicated to be minor. Some order overlap is predicted at the bottom of the echelle format.

Turner, T. S., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Tests and comparisons of satellite derived geoids with Skylab altimeter data

The SKYLAB-193 radar altimeter was operated nearly continuously around the world on January 31, 1974. This direct measurement of the sea surface topography provided an independent basis for the evaluation of global geoids computed from satellite derived gravity models. The differences between the altimeter geoid and the satellite geoids were as large as 25 meters with rms values ranging from 8 to 10 meters. These differences also indicated a systematic long wavelength variation (approximately 100 deg) not related to error in the SKYLAB orbits. Truncation of the models to degree and order eight did not eliminate the long wavelength variation, but in every case the rms agreement between satellite and altimeter geoids was improved. Orbits computed with the truncated models were in contrast found to be inferior to those computed using the complete models.

Marsh, J. G.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Bit-synchronizer lock detector

Circuit measures phase error that exists in phase-locked loop between clock signal recorded in data on magnetic tape and reconstructed clock signal. Circuit presents error as digital word that can be compared with predetermined threshold to indicate lock status. With simple alterations, circuit can also be used as phase detector.

Huey, D. C.↗

NASA NTRS1978

26.3 MHz radio source survey. III - Correlation with extragalactic X-ray sources

The correlation between extragalactic X-ray sources and radio sources in a 26.3-MHz catalog is studied. A list of reliably identified sources is developed by examining X-ray, optical, and radio data for those candidate objects that are in or near the X-ray error boxes. The source 3UR 0432+05 is identified with 3C 120, 3UR 1555+27 (identified with A2142) is shown to be a steep-spectrum radio source, and it is found that 86% of the high-galactic-latitude sources can be reliably identified when the X-ray source error areas are no more than 1 sq deg. The results also indicate that: (1) X-ray sources identified with clusters of galaxies as a whole, with individual galaxies in clusters, and with separate isolated galaxies have similar decametric properties in that their spectral indices and radio luminosities fall in the same range; (2) there is a Bautz-Morgan dependence of both the X-ray and the decametric luminosities of clusters and of individual objects in clusters; and (3) the X-ray luminosity of all except compact sources appears to be approximately proportional to the decametric luminosity.

Erickson, W. C.↗

NASA NTRS1979

A maximum likelihood convolutional decoder model vs experimental data comparison

This article describes the comparison of a maximum likelihood convolutional decoder (MCD) prediction model and the actual performance of the MCD at the Madrid Deep Space Station. The MCD prediction model is used to develop a subroutine that has been utilized by the Telemetry Analysis Program (TAP) to compute the MCD bit error rate for a given signal-to-noise ratio. The results indicate that that the TAP can predict quite well compared to the experimental measurements. An optimal modulation index also can be found through TAP.

Chen, R. Y.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Optimum frequencies of passive microwave radiometer for tropospheric path-length correction

Radio-astronomical observations require accurate calibration of tropospheric path length. Such calibration can be achieved by microwave radiometers operating near the 22-GHz water vapor line. However, the performances of current passive microwave radiometers are meteorology-profile dependent. This is due mainly to incorrect frequency combinations and to saturation of brightness temperatures. By properly selecting an optimum frequency pair and removing the saturation effect, the dependency is alleviated and can be further adjusted by surface measurements alone. Hence, a universal calibration equation is applicable to all environmental conditions. Optimum frequency pairs are systematically searched. Simulation analysis indicates that calibration for the tropospheric water-vapor path-length error is better than 0.3 cm at zenith and better than 2 cm for an elevation angle as low as 10 deg.

Wu, S.-C.↗

NASA NTRS1983

A two step linear statistical technique using leaps and bounds procedure for retrieval of geophysical parameters from microwave radiometric data

A linear statistical technique using a 'leaps and bounds' procedure (Furnival and Wilson, 1974) is developed for retrieving geophysical parameters from remote measurements. It is used for retrieving sea surface temperatures from the Scaning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on Seasat. The technique uses an efficient algorithm to select the best fixed-size subset of the 10 SMMR channels for linearly retrieving a given geophysical parameter. The 5-channel subset (6.6V, 6.6H 10H, 18V, 21H), where V and H refer to, respectively, the vertical and horizontal polarizations and the numbers are the channel frequencies in gigahertz, gives the minimum rms error in estimating the sea surface temperature. A comparison with ground truth indicates that the algorithm infers the temperature with an rms accuracy of better than 1.5 K under most environmental conditions. A quality control procedure which is seen as holding promise for further improving the accuracy is proposed.

Kakar, R. K.↗

NASA NTRS1984

LANDSAT-4 horizon scanner performance evaluation

Representative data spans covering a little more than a year since the LANDSAT-4 launch were analyzed to evaluate the flight performance of the satellite's horizon scanner. High frequency noise was filtered out by 128-point averaging. The effects of Earth oblateness and spacecraft altitude variations are modeled, and residual systematic errors are analyzed. A model for the predicted radiance effects is compared with the flight data and deficiencies in the radiance effects modeling are noted. Correction coefficients are provided for a finite Fourier series representation of the systematic errors in the data. Analysis of the seasonal dependence of the coefficients indicates the effects of some early mission problems with the reference attitudes which were computed by the onboard computer using star trackers and gyro data. The effects of sun and moon interference, unexplained anomalies in the data, and sensor noise characteristics and their power spectrum are described. The variability of full orbit data averages is shown. Plots of the sensor data for all the available data spans are included.

Bilanow, S.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Geologic analysis of averaged magnetic satellite anomalies

To investigate relative advantages and limitations for quantitative geologic analysis of magnetic satellite scalar anomalies derived from arithmetic averaging of orbital profiles within equal-angle or equal-area parallelograms, the anomaly averaging process was simulated by orbital profiles computed from spherical-earth crustal magnetic anomaly modeling experiments using Gauss-Legendre quadrature integration. The results indicate that averaging can provide reasonable values at satellite elevations, where contributing error factors within a given parallelogram include the elevation distribution of the data, and orbital noise and geomagnetic field attributes. Various inversion schemes including the use of equivalent point dipoles are also investigated as an alternative to arithmetic averaging. Although inversion can provide improved spherical grid anomaly estimates, these procedures are problematic in practice where computer scaling difficulties frequently arise due to a combination of factors including large source-to-observation distances ( 400 km), high geographic latitudes, and low geomagnetic field inclinations.

Goyal, H. K.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Space Infrared Telescope Facility (SIRTF) observatory design

The NASA Space IR Telescope Facility (SIRTF) is a 1-m aperture, cryogenically cooled IR observatory scheduled for launch into orbit in the mid-1990s. SIRTF will operate in the 2-700 micron range and yield a 1000-fold increase in sensitivity over NASA's IRAS observatory. A low inclination orbit compatible with Space Shuttle operations will be used. Results from comparisons of a system error budget allocation for the f/24 optical configuration with recent test data indicate that a figured fused silica mirror and a blade flexure mounting system can be cooled to cryogenic temperature while meeting required wavefront tolerances for substrate deformation. An all-He cooling system will be used in the low inclination orbit.

Brooks, W. F.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Conservative finite volume solutions of a linear hyperbolic transport equation in two and three dimensions using multiple grids

The feasibility of the multiple grid technique is investigated by solving linear hyperbolic equations for simple two- and three-dimensional cases. The results are compared with exact solutions and those obtained from the single grid calculations. It is demonstrated that the technique works reasonably well when two grid systems contain grid cells of comparative sizes. The study indicates that use of the multiple grid does not introduce any significant error and that it can be used to attack more complex problems.

Tiwari, Surendra N.↗