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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Cross-machine comparison of runaway electron generation during tokamak start-up for extrapolation to ITER

A cross-machine comparison of global parameters that determine the runaway electron (RE) generation and loss process during tokamak start-up was carried out with the aim to extrapolate these to ITER. The study found that all considered discharges, also those that do not show signs of RE, are non-thermal at the start, i.e. have a streaming parameter larger than 0.1. During the current ramp-up the electric field, E, remains above the critical value, E c , that allows RE in the plasma. The distinction to be made is not if RE can form but, if sufficient RE can form fast enough such that they are detected or start to dominate the dynamics of the tokamak discharge. The dynamics of the value of E, density and temperature during tokamak are key to the formation of RE. It was found that larger devices operate with E closer to E c , due to their higher temperatures, hence the RE generation is relatively slower. The slower time scales for the formation of RE, estimated to be of the order of 100s of ms in ITER simplifies the development of avoidance schemes. The RE confinement time is also an important determinant of the entire process and is found to increase with the device size. The study also revealed that drift orbit losses, a mechanism often attributed as the main RE loss mechanism during the early tokamak discharge, are actually more difficult to achieve. RE losses might be more likely attributed to RE diffusion due to magnetic turbulence.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards constraining cosmological parameters with SPT-3G observations of 25% of the sky

The South Pole Telescope (SPT), using its third-generation camera, SPT-3G, is conducting observations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) in temperature and polarization across approximately 10 000 deg$^2$ of the sky at 95, 150, and 220 GHz. This comprehensive dataset should yield stringent constraints on cosmological parameters. In this work, we explore its potential to address the Hubble tension by forecasting constraints from temperature, polarization, and CMB lensing on early dark energy (EDE) and the variation in electron mass in spatially flat and curved universes. For this purpose, we investigate first whether analyzing the distinct SPT-3G observation fields independently, as opposed to as a single, unified region, results in a loss of information relevant to cosmological parameter estimation. We develop a realistic temperature and polarization likelihood pipeline capable of analyzing these fields in these two ways, and subsequently forecast constraints on cosmological parameters. Our findings indicate that any loss of constraining power from analyzing the fields separately is primarily concentrated at low multipoles ($\ell$ < 50) and the overall impact on the relative uncertainty on standard $Λ$ cold dark matter parameters is minimal (< 3%). Our forecasts suggest that SPT-3G data should improve by more than a factor of 90 and 190 the figure of merit of the EDE and the varying electron mass models, respectively, when combined with Planck data. The likelihood pipeline developed and used in this work is made publicly available online.

Vitrier, A. [Paris, Inst. Astrophys.]↗
DOE OSTI2023

Approximate Boltzmann distributions in quantum approximate optimization

Approaches to compute or estimate the output probability distributions from the quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA) are needed to assess the likelihood it will obtain a quantum computational advantage. We analyze output from QAOA circuits solving 7200 random MaxCut instances, with $n$ = 14–23 qubits and depth parameter $p$ ≤ 12 and find that the average basis state probabilities follow approximate Boltzmann distributions: The average probabilities scale exponentially with their energy (cut value), with a peak at the optimal solution. Furthermore, we describe the rate of exponential scaling or effective temperature in terms of a series with a leading-order term $T$ ~ $C$ min /$n$ $\sqrt{p}$, with $C$ min the optimal solution energy. Using this scaling, we generate approximate output distributions with up to 38 qubits and find these give accurate accounts of important performance metrics in cases we can simulate exactly.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Economics-by-Design Approach Applied to a Heat Pipe Microreactor Concept

Microreactors present a potential paradigm shift in the nuclear industry. Emphasis thus far has been on large-scale multi-billion-dollar projects that cater solely to grid electricity market. These projects can be challenging to finance and execute. On the other hand, microreactors are intended to target a wide variety of smaller niche markets and are expected to be factory-fabricated and more readily deployable. While diseconomies of scale for microreactors may tend to raise their costs per energy output (MWh) relative to large nuclear plants, offsetting gains can be expected from standardization, simplification, passive safety, lower radionuclide inventories, factory fabrication, fast installation, and low financing costs. To adequately assess these contributions, designers should have a different perspective on cost drivers than for large nuclear plants and can utilize novel approaches for systematic cost reduction. To account for these important aspects of microreactors, this report proposes an economics-by-design approach that places economic considerations at the center of the design process. The methodology builds on existing frameworks such as design-to-cost and value engineering, expanding them to new markets (beyond the grid), new attributes (beyond costs alone), and introducing the approach at earlier points in the design cycle. Design parameters and technical specifications are systematically evaluated until costs meet market entry points, while also providing the high-priority performance attributes of the particular use case. Determining first-order estimates for different components early in the process enables designers to focus R&D efforts on the biggest overall cost contributors and components with the most cost uncertainty. The analysis is always guided by market needs and threshold prices. In addition to microreactors, the approach is expected to be useful for other classes of nuclear reactors as well. The analysis was applied to a concept found in the open literature (the Design A heat-pipe reactor). A comprehensive bottom-up estimate was generated by leveraging a new microreactor-specific code of accounts and a range of cost equations. The initial estimate for levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) unsurprisingly exceeded market ranges since the use case had prioritized technological readiness over economic considerations in design choices. An alternate concept was then proposed, with various assumptions/targets made to reduce the largest cost contributors. Changes in the neutron spectrum, the power output, and building structures were found to make even the first-of-a-kind of this modified concept competitive with diesel generation in some remote communities. Learning rate (LR) assumptions indicated cost reductions achieved from sequential unit deployments could expand the range of competitiveness to include additional markets as deployments proceed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1990

Buoyancy-driven melt segregation in the earth's moon. I - Numerical results

The densities of lunar mare magmas have been estimated at liquidus temperatures for pressures from 0 to 47 kbar (0.4 GPa; center of the moon) using a third-order Birch-Murnaghan equation and compositionally dependent parameters from Large and Carmichael (1987). Results on primary magmatic compositions represented by pristine volcanic glasses suggest that the density contrast between very-high-Ti melts and their liquidus olivines may approach zero at pressures of about 25 kbar (2.5 GPa). Since this is the pressure regime of the mantle source regions for these magmas, a compositional limit of eruptability for mare liquids may exist that is similar to the highest Ti melt yet observed among the lunar samples. Although the moon may have generated magmas having greater than 16.4 wt pct TiO2, those melts would probably not have reached the lunar surface due to their high densities, and may have even sunk deeper into the moon's interior as negatively buoyant diapirs. This process may have been important for assimilative interactions in the lunar mantle. The phenomenon of melt/solid density crossover may therefore occur not only in large terrestrial-type objects but also in small objects where, despite low pressures, the range of melt compositions is extreme.

Delano, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Calibration Software for Use with Jurassicprok

The Jurassicprok Interferometric Calibration Software (also called "Calibration Processor" or simply "CP") estimates the calibration parameters of an airborne synthetic-aperture-radar (SAR) system, the raw measurement data of which are processed by the Jurassicprok software described in the preceding article. Calibration parameters estimated by CP include time delays, baseline offsets, phase screens, and radiometric offsets. CP examines raw radar-pulse data, single-look complex image data, and digital elevation map data. For each type of data, CP compares the actual values with values expected on the basis of ground-truth data. CP then converts the differences between the actual and expected values into updates for the calibration parameters in an interferometric calibration file (ICF) and a radiometric calibration file (RCF) for the particular SAR system. The updated ICF and RCF are used as inputs to both Jurassicprok and to the companion Motion Measurement Processor software (described in the following article) for use in generating calibrated digital elevation maps.

Chapin, Elaine↗
DOE OSTI2019

Initial Assessment for a Generic Horizontal Fissile Solution Vessel with an Electron Beam-based Neutron Generator

The LANL NA-23 program office has provided an extensive design study for a medical isotope (i.e. Molybdenum-99) production facility based on a fissile solution vessel with various accelerator technologies. These concept designs and associated R&D have provided affordable pathways for system optimization for industry counter partner such as SHINE and Global Medial Isotope Supply (GMIS). A horizontal fissile solution vessel design with an electron beam (E-beam) accelerator is proposed and studied with modeling capabilities developed for previous concepts (i.e. a generic vertical fissile solution vessel with a deuterium-tritium (DT) accelerator). An initial system assessment is performed by estimating theoretical Molybdenum-99 production yield with MCNP6.2. A baseline system configuration is constructed based on early design discussions between LANL and GMIS. Since only an initial design concept is available at this stage, all associated system design parameters can be adjusted to fit the best system performance characteristics. In this work, unlike previous vertical system studies, the cooling configuration of the horizontal fissile solution vessel is not considered, and only fission reactions are used to quantify the theoretical product yield. Five parametric design studies are proposed, preliminary results are briefly reported, and extended design studies beyond what is proposed here are also discussed. It is concluded that a comprehensive system analysis via multiphysics coupled calculation developed by LANL should be further conducted for the final design.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Spectacular Viscoelastic Model Calibration for 828/D230/Alox Generated from Legacy Sandia Data

The nonlinear viscoelastic Spectacular model is calibrated to the thermo-mechanical behavior of 828/D230/Alox with an alox volume fraction of 20 %. Legacy experimental data from Sandia’s polymer properties database (PPD) is used to calibrate the model. Based on known densities of the epoxy 828/D230 and the alox filler, the alox volume fractions listed on the PPD were likely reported incorrectly. The alox volume fractions are recalculated here. Using the recalculated alox volume fractions, the PPD contains experimental data for 828/D230/Alox with alox volume fractions of 16 %, 24 %, and 33 %, so the thermo-mechanical behavior at 20 % alox volume fraction is estimated by interpolating between the bounding cases of of 16 % and 24 %. Because the Spectacularmodel can be fairly challenging to calibrate, the calibration procedure is described in detail. Several of the calibration steps involve inverse parameter identification, where an experiment is simulated and parameters are iteratively updated until the model response matches the experimental data. As the PPD does not fully describe all experimental procedures, the experimental simulations use assumed thermal and mechanical loading rates that are typical for the viscoelastic characterization of epoxies. Spectacular uses four independent relaxation functions related to volumetric (ƒ 1 ), shear (ƒ 2 ), thermal strain (ƒ 3 ), and thermal relaxations (ƒ 4 ). The previous SPEC model form, also known as the universal_polymer model, uses two independent relaxation functions related to volumetric and thermal relaxation (ƒ ν = ƒ 1 = ƒ 3 = ƒ 4 ) and shear relaxation (ƒ s = ƒ 2 ). The two constitutive choices are briefly evaluated here, where it is found that the four relaxation function approach of Spectacular was better suited for fitting the coefficient of thermal expansion during both heating and cooling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2017

Coupled Data Assimilation for Integrated Earth System Analysis and Prediction: Goals, Challenges, and Recommendations

The purpose of this report is to identify fundamental issues for coupled data assimilation (CDA), such as gaps in science and limitations in forecasting systems, in order to provide guidance to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on how to facilitate more rapid progress internationally. Coupled Earth system modeling provides the opportunity to extend skillful atmospheric forecasts beyond the traditional two-week barrier by extracting skill from low-frequency state components such as the land, ocean, and sea ice. More generally, coupled models are needed to support seamless prediction systems that span timescales from weather, subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), multiyear, and decadal. Therefore, initialization methods are needed for coupled Earth system models, either applied to each individual component (called Weakly Coupled Data Assimilation - WCDA) or applied the coupled Earth system model as a whole (called Strongly Coupled Data Assimilation - SCDA). Using CDA, in which model forecasts and potentially the state estimation are performed jointly, each model domain benefits from observations in other domains either directly using error covariance information known at the time of the analysis (SCDA), or indirectly through flux interactions at the model boundaries (WCDA). Because the non-atmospheric domains are generally under-observed compared to the atmosphere, CDA provides a significant advantage over single-domain analyses. Next, we provide a synopsis of goals, challenges, and recommendations to advance CDA: Goals: (a) Extend predictive skill beyond the current capability of NWP (e.g. as demonstrated by improving forecast skill scores), (b) produce physically consistent initial conditions for coupled numerical prediction systems and reanalyses (including consistent fluxes at the domain interfaces), (c) make best use of existing observations by allowing observations from each domain to influence and improve the full earth system analysis, (d) develop a robust observation-based identification and understanding of mechanisms that determine the variability of weather and climate, (e) identify critical weaknesses in coupled models and the earth observing system, (f) generate full-field estimates of unobserved or sparsely observed variables, (g) improve the estimation of the external forcings causing changes to climate, (h) transition successes from idealized CDA experiments to real-world applications. Challenges: (a) Modeling at the interfaces between interacting components of coupled Earth system models may be inadequate for estimating uncertainty or error covariances between domains, (b) current data assimilation methods may be insufficient to simultaneously analyze domains containing multiple spatiotemporal scales of interest, (c) there is no standardization of observation data or their delivery systems across domains, (d) the size and complexity of many large-scale coupled Earth system models makes it is difficult to accurately represent uncertainty due to model parameters and coupling parameters, (e) model errors lead to local biases that can transfer between the different Earth system components and lead to coupled model biases and long-term model drift, (e) information propagation across model components with different spatiotemporal scales is extremely complicated, and must be improved in current coupled modeling frameworks, (h) there is insufficient knowledge on how to represent evolving errors in non-atmospheric model components (e.g. as sea ice, land and ocean) on the timescales of NWP.

CDA↗
NASA NTRS2008

Radiative Susceptibility of Cloudy Atmospheres to Droplet Number Perturbations: 2. Global analysis from MODIS

Global distributions of albedo susceptibility for areas covered by liquid clouds are presented for 4 months in 2005. The susceptibility estimates are based on expanded definitions presented in a companion paper and include relative cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) changes, perturbations in cloud droplet asymmetry parameter and single-scattering albedo, atmospheric/surface effects, and incorporation of the full solar spectrum. The cloud properties (optical thickness and effective radius) used as input in the susceptibility calculations come from MODIS Terra and Aqua Collection 5 gridded data. Geographical distributions of susceptibility corresponding to absolute ( absolute cloud susceptibility ) and relative ( relative cloud susceptibility ) CDNC changes are markedly different indicating that the detailed nature of the cloud microphysical perturbation is important for determining the radiative forcing associated with the first indirect aerosol effect. However, both types of susceptibility exhibit common characteristics such as significant reductions when perturbations in single-scattering properties are omitted, significant increases when atmospheric absorption and surface albedo effects are ignored, and the tendency to decrease with latitude, to be higher over ocean than over land, and to be statistically similar between the morning and afternoon MODIS overpasses. The satellite-based susceptibility analysis helps elucidate the role of present-day cloud and land surface properties in indirect aerosol forcing responses. Our realistic yet moderate CDNC perturbations yield forcings on the order of 1-2 W/sq m for cloud optical property distributions and land surface spectral albedos observed by MODIS. Since susceptibilities can potentially be computed from model fields, these results have practical application in assessing the reasonableness of model-generated estimates of the aerosol indirect radiative forcing.

Oreopoulos, Lazaros↗
DOE OSTI2019

Building a Predictive Fission Rate Model

Nuclear fission, and specifically the rate at which fission occurs compared to other types of reactions, is a crucial piece in the puzzle of the origin of the elements in the universe. Fission in astrophysical environments involves rare and exotic nuclei that cannot be studied in the laboratory, and we must therefore rely on model calculations. Yet all fission rates calculated today use a phenomenological (theoretical) model that was formulated in 1939, updated in 1953, and has remained essentially unchanged. Because the model contains many adjustable parameters, it has been successfully used to fit existing data, but in turn has very limited predictive power in cases where the data are poor or nonexistent. The goal of this project was to develop a novel approach that moves away from phenomenology to construct a fission-rate model built from microscopic ingredients: protons, neutrons, and their mutual interactions. The approach adopted in this work relied on the construction of a discrete basis of mean-field states that form paths through scission. The calculations were performed within the framework of the generator coordinate method. The project has produced a methodology for constructing the discrete basis states and identifying likely fission paths, as well as estimates of the energy partition between fragments and a formalism to calculate fission rates based on Fermi’s golden rule.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1984

Lagged average forecasting, some operational considerations

The Lagged Average Forecast (LAF) method differs from the Monte Carlo Forecast (MCF) method in the definition of the ensemble of initial states which are used to generate the ensemble of forecasts. The LAF initial states are the current analysis and the forecasts made from previous analyses verifying the current time. Thus the LAF ensemble is composed of forecasts which are made by a regular operational system of numerical weather prediction and the LAF method is therefore operationally attractive. The application of the authors' previous ideas and results to an operational model requires the resolution of what might be called the degrees of freedom problem, i.e., how to obtain a homogeneous sample large enough to calculate stable statistics. It is suggested that this problem may be solved by carefully modeling the required statistics in terms of a small set of parameters and then estimating only these few parameters from the data. It is noted that there may be considerable information in each initial ensemble relating to the predictability of each particular case, and that this information may be incorporated in the model of the statistics.

Hoffman, R. N.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Frequency Reuse, Cell Separation, and Capacity Analysis of VHF Digital Link Mode 3 TDMA

The most recent studies by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the aviation industry have indicated that it has become increasingly difficult to make new VHF frequency or channel assignments to meet the aviation needs for air-ground communications. FAA has planned for several aggressive improvement measures to the existing systems, but these measures would not meet the projected voice communications needs beyond 2009. FAA found that since 1974 there has been, on the average, a 4 percent annual increase in the number of channel assignments needed to satisfy the air-ground communication traffic (approximately 300 new channel assignments per year). With the planned improvement measures, the channel assignments are expected to reach a maximum number of 16615 channels by about 2010. Hence, the FAA proposed the use of VDL Mode 3 as a new integrated digital voice and data communications systems to meet the future air traffic demand. This paper presents analytical results of frequency reuse; cell separation and capacity estimation of VDL Mode 3 TDMA systems that FAA has planned to implement the future VHF air-ground communications system by the year 2010. For TDMA, it is well understood that the frequency reuse factor is a crucial parameter for capacity estimation. Formulation of this frequency reuse factor is shown, taking into account the limitation imposed by the requirement to have a sufficient Signal to Co-Channel Interference Ratio. Several different values for the Signal to Co-Channel Interference Ratio were utilized corresponding to the current analog VHF DSB-AM systems, and the future digital VDL Mode 3. The required separation of Co-Channel cells is computed for most of the Frequency Protected Service Volumes (FPSV's) currently in use by the FAA. Additionally, the ideal cell capacity for each FPSV is presented. Also, using actual traffic for the Detroit air space, a FPSV traffic distribution model is used to generate a typical cell for channel capacity prediction. Such prediction is useful for evaluating the improvement of future VDL Mode 3 deployment and capacity planning.

Shamma, Mohammed A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transportation and Systems Analysis Collaborations in Support of a Federal Consolidated Interim Storage Facility

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Integrated Waste Management (IWM) program under the Office of Nuclear Energy is planning for the future transportation, storage, and eventual disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW) from nuclear power plant sites across the United States. To better enable informed decision-making regarding the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, the IWM program has been sponsoring the development and application of system analysis tools capable of analyzing various options for managing SNF and HLW. With these tools, integrated waste management system (IWMS) architecture analyses are being conducted to support the future deployment of a comprehensive nuclear waste management system that considers all major back-end aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle (i.e., transportation, storage, and disposal). System analyses and assessments typically use these modeling and simulation tools to investigate implications of changes in various assumptions and parameters such as acceptance rates, receipt logic, facility capacities and capabilities, use of standardized canisters, start and stop dates of facilities, etc. The Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM) is an agent-based simulation toolkit that is used for a system-level simulation and analysis focused on SNF management in the United States. An analyst using NGSAM has the ability to define several factors like the number of storage facilities, capacity at each facility, transportation schedules, shipment rates, and other conditions. NGSAM’s primary purpose is to provide a system analyst with capabilities to model the IWMS and gain insights into SNF and HLW management alternatives including the impact of system choices, associated cost estimates, and development of integrated yet flexible approaches. IWM is also developing the Stakeholder Tool for Assessing Radioactive Transportation (START). START is a web-based geospatial tool developed to provide visualization and initial evaluation of transportation options associated with future SNF and HLW shipment planning and operations. This includes characterizing safety, economic, and environmental conditions on and in proximity to shipment origins as well as along prospective transportation routes. Information from the START tool can be presented/shared as maps, graphics, geospatial files, and tabular form to enable easy data representation and export functionality. The system analysis, NGSAM, and START teams had been working closely for several years before formalizing this collaboration. START provides the SNF routing information for use in NGSAM. System analysts use the NGSAM tool to generate results (schedule, costs, infrastructure acquisitions, shipment rates, etc.). Subject-matter experts and system analysts work together to inform how NGSAM should model the waste management system. Specifically, this paper discusses the collaborations between the system analysis, NGSAM, and START teams and their accomplishments over the past year. Some examples of these efforts include calibrating and adding data to the START output files to meet NGSAM needs, gaining a better understanding of START data used in NGSAM, as well as how updates in START data could result in an improved NGSAM analysis. Detailed examples of various tasks that have been performed by the team will be discussed in the full paper. Continued efforts in this direction are expected in the coming years.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Convenient analytical formula for cluster mean diameter and diameter dispersion after nucleation burst

Here, we propose an alternative method of estimating the mean diameter and dispersion of clusters of particles, formed in a cooling gas, right after the nucleation stage. Using a moment model developed by Friedlander [S. K. Friedlander, Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. 404, 354 (1983)], we derive an analytic relationship for both cluster mean diameter and diameter dispersion as a function of two of the characteristic times of the system: the cooling time and the primary constituents collision time. These formulas can be used to predict diameter and dispersion variation with process parameters, such as the initial primary constituents' concentration or cooling rate. It is also possible to use them as an input to the coagulation stage, without the need to compute complex cluster generation during the nucleation burst. We compared our results with a nodal code (NGDE) and got excellent agreement.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2018

Evaluating Charge Equilibration Methods To Generate Electrostatic Fields in Nanoporous Materials

Charge equilibration (Qeq) methods can estimate the electrostatic potential of molecules and periodic frameworks by assigning point charges to each atom, using only a small fraction of the resources needed to compute density functional (DFT)-derived charges. This makes possible, for example, the computational screening of thousands of microporous structures to assess their performance for the adsorption of polar molecules. Recently, different variants of the original Qeq scheme were proposed to improve the quality of the computed point charges. One focus of this research was to improve the gas adsorption predictions in metal-organic frameworks (MOFs), for which many different structures are available. In this work, we review the evolution of the method from the original Qeq scheme, understanding the role of the different modifications on the final output. We evaluated the result of combining different protocols and set of parameters, by comparing the Qeq charges with high quality DFT-derived DDEC charges for 2338 MOF structures. We focused on the systematic errors that are attributable to specific atom types to quantify the final precision that one can expect from Qeq methods in the context of gas adsorption where the electrostatic potential plays a significant role, namely, CO 2 and H 2 S adsorption. In conclusion, both the type of algorithm and the input parameters have a large impact on the resulting charges, and we draw some guidelines to help the user to choose the proper combination of the two for obtaining a meaningful set of charges. We show that, considering this set of MOFs, the accuracy of the original Qeq scheme is often still comparable with the most recent variants, even if it clearly fails in the presence of certain atom types, such as alkali metals.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

A neural-network-enhanced parameter-varying framework for multi-objective model predictive control applied to buildings

Management of the electrical grid is becoming more complex due to the increased penetration of alternative energy generation technologies and a broadening diversity of electric loads. This complexity creates challenges in balancing demand and generation that can increase the potential for grid instabilities. One effective way to address this issue is to leverage previously unexploited demand flexibility through advanced control strategies. In this work, we propose an advanced control method, called adaptive neural parameter-varying model predictive control (ANPV-MPC), to control the temperature and energy consumption of a building via its Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning system. ANPV-MPC combines key ideas in parameter-varying control, adaptive control, and online learning strategies to bridge the gap between computationally efficient linear model predictive control and more accurate nonlinear model predictive control. The novelty in ANPV-MPC is the use of a physics-inspired Bayesian neural network to estimate the coefficients of the parameter-varying linear control model. The Bayesian neural network additionally provides uncertainty estimates, triggering online training to capture evolving building system conditions. We show that ANPV-MPC can approximate the building system dynamics with a 28.39% higher accuracy than traditional linear model predictive control, resulting in 36.23% better control performance without increasing complexity of the optimal control problem. ANPV-MPC also adapts in real time to previously unseen conditions using online learning, further improving its performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2019

Pulsed anodic arc discharge for the synthesis of carbon nanomaterials

Pulsed arc discharges can improve arc control and tailor the ablation process in the production of 1D and 2D nanostructures from carbon anodes. In this work, low-dimensional carbon nanoparticles have been generated by means of anodic arc discharge in helium atmosphere excited with a square-wave modulated signal (1–5 Hz, 10% duty cycle). The discharges were performed between two graphite electrodes with maximal peak current of 250 A and maximal voltage of 65 V. The erosion rates and conversion efficiency of the ablated anode are compared to reference samples grown in DC steady arc mode. Ablation rates in pulsed arcs are typically of the order of 1 mg/s. Combination of fast Langmuir probe diagnostics and optical emission spectroscopy provided plasma parameters of the discharges at the arc column. Ranges of 10 16 –10 17 m -3 for electron density and 0.5–2.0 eV for electron temperature are estimated. The obtained samples were characterized with Raman spectroscopy and scanning electron microscopy. The deposit on the cathode after pulsed arc consisted of carbon nanostructures such as graphene nano-platelets and carbon nanotubes. Erosion dynamics of pulsed arc discharge has been described in terms of a global model and compared to steady arc discharge. A correlation is identified among discharge regimes, optical emission patterns and ablation modes. In conclusion, pulsed anodic arc discharge is a very efficient source of carbon nanomaterials. The large control of the discharge characteristics will permit to tailor accurately the production and the properties of carbon nanotubes and graphene. Here, this deposition method is promising for the fabrication of semiconducting nanomaterials with tuneable electrical and optical properties.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗